Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 Preview
Johnny Walker attempts a flying knee on Anthony Smith. Credit: MMA Fighting.
After a month of waiting, the first card of 2024 has finally arrived. We’ll see two hotly-contested rematches at the top of the card: Ankalaev vs. Walker and Nicolau vs. Kape. Jim Miller returns to add to his record-setting 42 UFC fights against Gabriel Benitez. Preceding this are two excellent up-and-coming matchups, and a fantastic undercard. Let’s take a look at the main card for this Saturday’s fight night.
Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira
Phil Hawes lands an elbow on Deron Winn. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Middleweight Bout
Phil Hawes: 12-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Brunno Ferreira: 10-1-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Hawes has won two of his last five outings and has victories over Kyle Daukaus (13-4-0), Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0), and Jacob Malkoun (7-3-0). With a background in collegiate wrestling, his easiest path to victory is grappling, averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he is very powerful, often landing slam takedowns, and hard to shake off when he’s in top position. Hawes never stops punching when he gets the fight to the mat, preferring a ground and pound finish to submissions. He has shown an increased willingness to strike lately but a tendency to panic wrestle if he gets caught with a big shot. On the feet, he stays patient and fights behind his jab; what he lacks in volume, he makes up for in accuracy and power. Hawes has shown marked improvement in his striking, now throwing head kicks and beautiful short elbows on the inside.
Brunno Ferreira exchanges blows with Leon Aliu. Credit: Insiders Betting Digest.
Ferreira has won four of his last five bouts and has a UFC victory over Gregory Rodrigues (14-5-0). He is an explosive striker with one-shot knockout power. He’s constantly feinting, switching stances, looking for openings, and attacking from different angles. Ferreira has finished all ten of his wins, with just two of his career outings seeing a second round. Training at Evolucao Thai, he prefers power to volume and has excellent head movement and big-time power in both hands. A true brawler, he often throws out risky maneuvers like Superman punches and spinning kicks. Ferreira is willing to grapple and usually takes the fight to the mat via vicious slam takedowns before unleashing hellacious ground-and-pound. He’s very active on the ground and will never accept a position, constantly trying to advance and secure a finish.
#13 Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista
Ricky Simon lands a right hand on Brian Kelleher. Credit: MMA Mania.
Bantamweight Bout
Ricky Simon: 20-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Mario Bautista: 13-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Simon has won three of his last five fights and holds UFC victories over #2 ranked Bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili (16-4-0), Raphael Assuncao (28-10-0), and Ray Borg (16-5-0). He’s a tenacious wrestler, always willing to work for a takedown and nearly impossible to shake off. He averages about six takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has lightning-quick level changes. On the feet, Simon constantly moves, feints, and switches stances, never keeping his head on the centerline. Training at ATT Portland, he never loads up on shots and throws everything with accuracy and purpose. He can land slam takedowns in open space and is excellent in the clinch, often chaining takedown attempts together. Simon is constantly pursuing a finish and advances position very quickly on the ground, often finding submissions with impressive speed.
Mario Bautista lands a left hand on Da’Mon Blackshear. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Bautista has won all of his last five fights and has wins over Miles Johns (14-2-0), Brian Kelleher (24-15-0), and Da’Mon Blackshear (14-6-1). He’s incredibly quick and dangerous on the feet, easily moving in and out of the pocket without taking damage. He throws everything with power, keeps his punches tight and technical, and attacks the head and body evenly. Training at the MMA Lab, Bautista always comes forward, throwing combinations and typically a steady flow of low kicks. He’s averaging nearly three takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has landed at least one takedown in his last five fights. He’s as quick on the ground as on the feet, transitioning and passing efficiently and effectively. Bautista has heavy top pressure and will find submissions in the blink of an eye, winning three of his last four appearances by first-round submission.
Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
Jim Miller celebrates after knocking out Jesse Butler. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Lightweight Bout
Jim Miller: 36-17-0, 7 KO/TKO, 19 Sub.
Gabriel Benitez: 23-11-0, 9 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Miller has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Lightweight Charles Oliveira (34-9-0), Clay Guida (38-21-0), and Donald Cerrone (36-17-0). He’s among the UFC's most well-respected, well-rounded, and accomplished fighters. He has the most wins in UFC history at 25, the most fights in promotional history with 42, and the second-most finishes with 17. Miller varies his shots excellently, attacking the head and body evenly and possessing devastating leg kicks. He’s excellent at timing counterattacks and will eat a shot to land one. He’s averaging over one takedown landed and nearly two submissions attempted per fifteen minutes. Training at Sussex County MMA, Miller has excellent top control and is constantly pursuing a finish.
Gabriel Benitez lands ground and pound on Charlie Ontiveros. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Benitez has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Jason Knight (23-8-0), Clay Collard (24-11-0), and Charlie Ontiveros (11-8-0). He’s a powerful striker who constantly throws in combination and favors his kicks. He fights behind his jab and never telegraphs his shots, keeping all his attacks technical and straight. Benitez won’t often attempt takedowns but has a slick submission game and a dangerous guillotine choke. If he ends up in top position, he’ll rain down devastating ground and pound until he secures a finish. Training at the American Kickboxing Academy, he’s willing to brawl in the pocket but is at his best when controlling the center and coming forward. Benitez does an excellent job of evenly varying his shots, attacking the head, body, and legs evenly.
#5 Matheus Nicolau vs. #6 Manel Kape
Matheus Nicolau throws a front kick at Matt Schnell. Credit: MMA Mania.
Flyweight Bout
Matheus Nicolau: 19-4-1, 5 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Manel Kape: 19-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Nicolau has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #9 ranked Flyweight Matt Schnell (16-7-0), #10 ranked Flyweight Tim Elliot (21-13-1), and his current opponent, Manel Kape. He’s highly well-rounded, has a great gas tank, and stays technical throughout the fight. He’s incredibly quick and has fantastic counter timing, often darting in and out of the pocket without absorbing damage. Nicolau constantly varies his shots and attacks from different angles, never telegraphing his next move. Training at Nova Uniao, he’s averaging over one takedown landed and nearly one submission attempted per fifteen minutes. He’s extremely active on the ground, never accepting a position and constantly pursuing a submission. Nicolau is highly skilled on top and off his back and can force wild transitions and scrambles.
Manel Kape lands an uppercut on Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Kape has won three of his last five fights and holds UFC wins over #14 ranked Flyweight David Dvorak (20-6-0), Ode’ Osbourne (12-6-0), and Zhalgas Zhumagulov (15-9-0). He is a former Rizin Bantamweight champion and has been facing the best of the best for the last seven years of his career. He’s constantly looking to counterstrike, throwing every shot with purpose and deadly accuracy. Kape has excellent distance management, switches stances constantly, and will often blitz in with big shots before returning to range. He has serious power for Flyweight and doesn’t telegraph anything, often timing his shots when his opponent enters his range. Training at AKA Thailand, he won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges but has a solid submission game and can be dangerous off his back. Kape takes some time to get going, but once he finds his rhythm, he heats up and lets his hands go.
#3 Magomed Ankalaev vs. #7 Johnny Walker
Magomed Ankalaev lands a right hand on Ion Cutelaba. Credit: Yahoo Sports.
Light Heavyweight Bout
Magomed Ankalaev: 18-1-1, 10 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Johnny Walker: 21-7-0, 16 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Ankalaev has won three of his last five fights with a draw and a No Contest and holds victories over #6 ranked Light Heavyweight Nikita Krylov (30-9-0), #9 ranked Light Heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0), and #10 ranked Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith (37-19-0). He holds the rank of Master of Sport in Combat Sambo and is a highly experienced grappler. Despite this, he only averages about one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and will often keep it on the feet. Ankalaev is very patient and often throws plenty of single shots, but he makes up for his lack of volume with massive power. He constantly presses forward and throws every shot with purpose, with his pace increasing as the fight continues. Training at Gorets, he holds the center well and often waits for openings or chances to counter before letting his hands go. When Ankalaev takes the fight to the mat, he is tough to shake off and throws vicious ground and pound until he finds a finish.
Johnny Walker throws a head kick at Thiago Santos. Credit: Yahoo Sports.
Walker has won three of his last five fights with one No Contest and has wins over #8 ranked Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. (14-5-0), #10 ranked Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith (37-19-0), and #11 ranked Light Heavyweight Ryan Spann (21-9-0). With 18 knockouts in the first round, he’s clearly at his most dangerous early on. Over time, he becomes more technical, preferring to stay at range, primarily using his kicks to land damage. Walker is constantly moving and using feints and is at his best when moving forward and leading the fight, often struggling when put on the back foot. Despite initially being known for his recklessness, he doesn’t seem to have any interest in getting into brawls and is much better off in a technical kickboxing match than a wild scrap. Training at SBG Ireland, he is enormous at 6’6”, even for a Light Heavyweight, and uses his size and reach to keep out of his opponent’s range and land strikes. Although Walker won’t typically take it to the mat, he has a 100% takedown success rate and a solid submission game.
Best Bets
Hawes vs. Ferreira to Not Go the Distance: While I’m not confident enough to pick a winner, both have massive power and tend to get reckless on the feet. I’d be shocked if the judges end up involved in this one.
Jim Miller by Finish: In case you didn’t know, Jim Miller is the man. There’s no objectivity in this pick, but he’s been hot lately and deserves a quick victory so he can fight at UFC 300. He is a considerably better grappler than Benitez, so it could be a short night at the office.
Magomed Ankalaev by KO/TKO: After a flukey end to their first matchup, I’m sure both guys are ready to throw down. I think Ankalaev is much more skilled and well-rounded, and it seemed the first fight was going his way before the bogus stoppage.
