UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi Preview
The UFC heads to Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada, with an exciting Fight Night card. There are plenty of fantastic matchups throughout, all filled with fighters looking to score a highlight victory in front of a packed crowd. In the co-main event, we’ll witness a top-five matchup of women’s Flyweights with possible title implications when Erin Blanchfield takes on Rose Namajunas. In the main event, we’ll see another top-five matchup, instead of men’s Flyweights, between former champion Brandon Moreno and the red-hot Amir Albazi. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Mike Malott vs. Trevin Giles
Welterweight Bout
Mike Malott: 10-2-1, 4 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Trevin Giles: 16-6-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Malott has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Mickey Gall (7-6-0), Adam Fugitt (10-4-0), and Yohan Lainesse (9-3-0). He’s dangerous on the feet with a solid kicking game and one-shot knockout power. He’s highly technical and accurate, throwing every shot with purpose and plenty of power. Malott has excellent footwork and typically throws in combination, supplying his opponent with a healthy dose of hooks and overhands. Training at Niagara Top Team, he’s a solid grappler with great wrestling and tremendous pressure on top. He’s landing, on average, about three takedowns per fifteen minutes and has a dangerous submission game, particularly chokes. Similar to his striking, Malott stays technical and patient on the ground, looking for openings and quickly advancing position.
Trevin Giles has won two of his last five bouts and has wins over #9 ranked Middleweight Roman Dolidze (14-3-0), Preston Parson (11-5-0), and James Krause (28-9-0). He is an aggressive boxer on the feet, constantly looking to explode forward with huge, hook-heavy combinations. He has good power in both hands and seemingly never puts punches out there to touch his opponent, throwing every punch with fight-ending intentions. He’s a talented grappler, averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes, and has solid top control. He will typically resort to ground and pound but has submission ability and will pursue chokes. Training at W4R Training Center, he relentlessly pursues the finish and is willing to engage in the fight anywhere to find it. Giles always leaves it all inside the Octagon, with just 23% of his professional fights going the distance.
Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Middleweight Bout
Marc-Andre Barriault: 16-8-0, 10 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Dustin Stoltzfus: 15-6-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Barriault has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Julian Marquez (9-5-0), Jordan Wright (12-5-0), and Eryk Anders (16-8-0). He’s a brawler, preferring to hang in the pocket and get the job done with his hands. He has solid power in both hands and regularly mixes in damaging leg kicks in his constant pursuit of a finish. When the fight hits the ground, Barriault has shown decent top control and heavy ground and pound, constantly looking to posture and rain down shots. He has solid defensive wrestling, having defended 67% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he has impressive cardio and can push a heavy pace, averaging about 95 significant strikes landed in his last five victories. Despite this, Barriault still seems to favor power over volume, throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions.
Stoltzfus has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Dwight Grant (11-6-0) and Punahele Soriano (10-4-0). He’s a solid wrestler with impressive power who’s always willing to engage in the pocket. He won’t rush on the feet, favoring power to volume and tending to throw kicks at range. Stoltzfus has good distance management and is always coming forward, often using his striking to close the distance and pursue takedowns. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is capable of brutal slams. Training at Xtreme Couture, he advances quickly on top and has solid top pressure, rarely letting his opponent out from under him. Stoltzfus has heavy ground and pound and a slick submission game, holding a victory via twister on his record.
Caio Machado vs. Brendson Ribeiro
Light Heavyweight Bout
Caio Machado: 8-3-1, 4 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Brendson Ribeiro: 15-7-0, 9 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Machado has won three of his last five bouts and is looking for his first UFC victory. He’s a heavy-handed brawler with a solid grappling background. He’s a fast starter, getting his hands going immediately, typically unloading with looping hooks and overhands. Machado throws every shot with power and constantly comes forward and attacks, often using his striking to reach the clinch. Training at FKP MMA Vancouver, he has excellent takedown defense and can defend shots along the fence and in open space. He advances quickly in top position, constantly looking to posture up and rain down ground and pound. Although Machado is always willing to brawl, he has two wins by armbar in his last five appearances and can finish the fight anywhere.
Ribeiro has won three of his last five outings and is looking to score his first UFC victory. He’s a wild scrapper with solid power and dangerous submissions. He throws everything with power, fighting behind his jab before unloading long, looping hooks. He has heavy kicks and throws them constantly, regularly mixing leg kicks into combinations. Training at Brazilian TKO, Ribeiro is an explosive grappler and can land powerful takedowns even when on the back foot. He can survive in deep waters on his back, has solid scrambles and reversals, and has heavy pressure in top position. He stays patient on top, not putting himself in bad spots while looking to land ground and pound. Ribeiro has found four of his six submissions via guillotine and will regularly pursue chokes if it hits the mat.
#11 Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz
Heavyweight Bout
Derrick Lewis: 28-12-0, 23 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Jhonata Diniz: 8-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Lewis has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #3 ranked Heavyweight Alexander Volkov (38-10-0), #5 ranked Heavyweight Curtis Blaydes (18-5-0), and #8 ranked Heavyweight Marcin Tybura (25-9-0). Famous for his kill-or-be-killed approach, he is arguably the most powerful puncher in the Heavyweight division. Training at Silverback Fight Club, he has a unique, patient style, often going from 0-100 in the blink of an eye. Along with his punching power, Lewis has a surprising arsenal of flashy attacks, particularly jumping kicks and flying knees. He doesn’t often initiate grappling exchanges and is well known for his non-technical wrestling style of “just getting up,” but he can do severe damage if he gets to top position. He’s incredibly resilient and is never truly out of a fight, especially since he only needs to land one clean shot to find a finish. Lewis is the record holder for UFC knockouts with 15 and looks to add to that number every time he fights.
Diniz is undefeated and has UFC victories over Karl Williams (10-2-0) and Austen Lane (13-5-0). He’s a former professional kickboxer with a record of 29-7 and fifteen knockout wins. He throws everything with power and can produce a knockout with a single clean shot. Diniz constantly presses forward and cuts off the cage well, often closing the distance to unload hooks. He remains technical throughout and varies his shots well, attacking the head, body, and legs. Training with the Santa Fe Team, he throws bombs but won’t telegraph and does an excellent job of mixing kicks into combinations. Diniz has six first-round knockouts in MMA and eight in kickboxing and is most dangerous early on.
#3 Erin Blanchfield vs. #5 Rose Namajunas
Women’s Flyweight
Erin Blanchfield: 12-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Rose Namajunas: 14-6-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Blanchfield has won four of her last five bouts and has UFC victories over #8 ranked Flyweight Jéssica Andrade (26-13-0), Miranda Maverick (16-5-0), and Molly McCann (14-7-0). She’s a well-rounded fighter, possessing excellent technical kickboxing and fantastic grappling. Having started training Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu at the age of 7, she has a black belt and is visibly experienced and highly comfortable on the ground. Blanchfield is tough to shake off, has excellent control, and often seems one step ahead of her opponent on the ground. Training at Silver Fox BJJ, she has excellent wrestling and averages about two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes in her UFC tenure. She is constantly advancing position when she does get it to the mat. She works behind her jab on the feet and usually throws in combination. Blanchfield has a solid arsenal of kicks and throws all of them quickly, and she has some especially dangerous high kicks.
Namajunas has won three of her last five outings and has UFC victories over Strawweight champion Zhang Weili (25-3-0), #8 ranked Flyweight Jéssica Andrade (26-13-0), and #10 ranked Flyweight Amanda Ribas (12-5-0). She’s a well-rounded fighter with a solid kickboxing game and excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Training at Genesis Training Center, she has sneaky power, a sturdy chin, and has proven her ability to go five rounds without slowing or getting sloppy. Holding black belts in both Taekwondo and Karate, Namajunas has very educated feet and crisp boxing. Averaging over one takedown landed per 15 minutes, she is willing to engage in grappling exchanges and has great top control to complement her excellent submission game. Six of her last ten bouts have been for titles against some of the fiercest competition in the sport, making her prepared for nearly anything. She’s been awarded six bonuses and has five finishes in the promotion, almost always leaving everything in the cage.
#2 Brandon Moreno vs. #3 Amir Albazi
Flyweight Bout
Brandon Moreno: 21-8-2, 5 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Amir Albazi: 17-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Brandon Moreno has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Flyweight Brandon Royval (17-7-0), #4 ranked Flyweight Kai Kara-France (25-11-0), and #5 ranked Bantamweight Deiveson Figueiredo (24-3-1). Training at Brazilian Warriors BJJ, he uses crisp boxing and extended combinations to damage his opponents. He remains patient and looks for openings but is more than willing to throw down and brawl in the pocket. Moreno has excellent top control and a slick submission game on the mat, particularly chokes. He also has excellent takedown defense, often working out of challenging positions and returning to his feet. He has fantastic cardio and can easily push a consistent pace across 25 minutes. Moreno has earned seven performance bonuses in his promotional tenure and is never in a boring fight.
Albazi is on a six-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Flyweight Kai Kara-France (25-11-0), Alessandro Costa (14-4-0), and Malcolm Gordon (14-8-0). He is a well-rounded fighter who’s most comfortable on the mat. He’s landing, on average, three takedowns and over one submission attempted per fifteen minutes and is a dominant wrestler. Training at Xtreme Couture, Albazi has excellent takedowns and is very hard to shake off, always staying active and pursuing a finish on top. He’s also dangerous on his back and advances position very quickly on the ground. On the feet, he uses technical boxing, constant forward pressure, and great head movement to damage his opponent. Albazi makes excellent use of feints and doesn’t telegraph his shots, always fighting behind his jab and usually holding the center of the cage.
Best Bets
Machado vs. Ribeiro to Not Go the Distance: One of the more interesting matchups on the card, both men have gone 0-2 in their promotional tenure and are attempting to secure their first UFC victory. Regardless of the fighters, typically, when two fighters are in a position where they’re fighting to keep their job, it’s going to get wild. With that situation in mind, these fighters have twenty-three wins between the two of them, with a combined 17 first-round finishes. I expect both fighters to take plenty of risks, throw caution to the wind, and ultimately, for someone to earn a finish along with their first UFC win.
Lewis vs. Diniz to Not Go the Distance: If you’re familiar with Lewis, you probably know how most of his fights end. Lewis has only seen the judges scorecards once in his last ten outings, and you know every time he’s in the octagon, somebody is going to sleep, one way or another. His opponent, Diniz, has only gone to decision a single time in his brief career and earned all but one of his knockouts in the first round. Typically, the only scenario where Lewis goes to a decision is when facing a grappler, and Diniz is a former professional kickboxer, so I don’t anticipate many takedown attempts from him. While I have no idea who will take this one, I’m highly confident somebody will be getting knocked out.
Brandon Moreno Moneyline: As usual, I admit my bias as a massive fan of Brandon Moreno. Regardless, I do believe he wins this fight. Albazi is an excellent, well-rounded fighter and offers an interesting puzzle at Flyweight, where there aren’t a ton of dominant wrestlers. Although he’s run through a few UFC opponents, he struggled significantly against top contender Kai Kara-France, especially with his grappling, landing just one of his nine attempted takedowns. While Albazi did win this fight by split decision, he absorbed 99 significant strikes and was even taken down twice, exposing cracks in his armor. Although Moreno has a different style to Kara-France, he’s a much more skilled grappler than KKF and also an excellent striker. While I believe Moreno can match Albazi on the ground, he has a definite advantage on the feet, where I think he can outpace and overwhelm him. I expect Moreno to deny Albazi’s takedowns, push a heavy pace, and put himself back into the win column.
UFC 308 Preview
The UFC returns to Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE, to host another outstanding pay-per-view card. The entire card is filled with numerous exceptional matchups and exciting scrappers, all looking to climb the ladder of their respective divisions. In the co-main event, we finally get the long-awaited matchup between perennial title contender Robert Whittaker and the seemingly unstoppable Khamzat Chimaev. In the main event, we’ll witness the newly crowned Featherweight king Ilia Topuria look to defend his gold against all-time great and former champion Max Holloway. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyana
Middleweight Bout
Shara Magomedov: 14-0-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Armen Petrosyan: 9-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Magomedov is undefeated and has UFC victories over Bruno Silva (23-11-0), Antonio Trocoli (12-4-0), and Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-9-0). He’s a devastating, diverse striker with a fantastic arsenal of kicks. He’s constantly moving and switching stances, never remaining in one spot for long. Magomedov is excellent at range, peppering his opponent with lead leg attacks before blitzing in to throw bombs. Training at GOR MMA, he rarely initiates grappling exchanges, often accepting position on his back and throwing strikes. He regularly looks to land spinning attacks, particularly elbows and backfists. Magomedov has scored three finishes in less than a minute and always comes out guns blazing.
Petrosyan has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Gregory Rodrigues (16-5-0), AJ Dobson (7-3-0), and Christian Leroy Duncan (10-2-0). A former professional kickboxer, he held a record of 70-22-1 with 27 wins by knockout. He’s an excellent technical striker who possesses both speed and power. Training at Academy MMA, Petrosyan has great timing and accuracy with his strikes, often able to land shots and slip out of the pocket without taking damage. He does a great job mixing kicks into his combinations, attacks the head and body evenly, and provides opponents with a steady dose of leg kicks. He’s not likely to initiate grappling exchanges but has shown a solid ability to get off his back and return to his feet, where he’s most comfortable. Petrosyan pushes a heavy pace throughout the fight and has outlanded all his UFC opponents.
#12 Lerone Murphy vs. #14 Dan Ige
Featherweight Bout
Lerone Murphy: 14-0-1, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Dan Ige: 18-8-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Murphy is undefeated and has UFC victories over #15 ranked Featherweight Edson Barboza (24-12-0), Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6-0), and Gabriel Santos (11-2-0). He’s a well-rounded scrapper with solid power in his hands. He’s in perpetual motion, regularly feinting and staying at range before blitzing in with looping hooks and overhands. Murphy is patient on the feet, constantly looking for openings before firing combinations with no tell or load-up. He is averaging over one takedown landed and nearly one submission attempted per fifteen minutes. Training at Manchester Top Team, he’s strong in the clinch, never accepts position on the mat, and has excellent scrambles. Murphy’s striking sets up his grappling and vice versa, and he’s never predictable inside the cage.
Ige has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #15 ranked Featherweight Edson Barboza (24-12-0), Andre Fili (24-11-0), and Damon Jackson (23-7-1). He is a brawler with serious power inside the pocket and excellent technical boxing. He has great footwork and constantly varies his attacks, going to the head and body evenly. While Ige primarily uses his hands to land damage, he also possesses powerful kicks, often throwing them naked or at the end of combinations. He throws every shot with power and deadly intent and has one-shot knockout ability. Although more known for his striking, he has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has landed at least one takedown in seven of his ten victories in the UFC. Ige has also shown great defensive grappling and is always active on the ground, never staying in one spot for long.
#1 Magomed Ankalaev vs. #5 Aleksandar Rakić
Light Heavyweight Bout
Magomed Ankalaev: 19-1-1, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Aleksandar Rakić: 14-4-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Ankalaev has won three of his last five outings with a draw and a No Contest and holds victories over #6 ranked Light Heavyweight Nikita Krylov (30-9-0), #8 ranked Light Heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (20-7-0), and #9 ranked Light Heavyweight Johnny Walker (21-9-0). He holds the rank of Master of Sport in Combat Sambo and is a highly experienced grappler. Despite this, he only averages about one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and is comfortable in a striking battle. Ankalaev is very patient, typically throwing single shots with few combinations, but he makes up for his lack of volume with massive power. He constantly presses forward and throws every shot with purpose, with his pace increasing as the fight continues. Training at Gorets, he does an excellent job of holding the center and often looks to counterstrike. When Ankalaev takes the fight to the mat, he has smothering pressure in top position and will constantly look to posture up and land brutal ground and pound.
Rakić has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #12 ranked Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith (38-20-0), Devin Clark (14-9-0), and Thiago Santos (22-13-0). He’s a powerful, technical striker with excellent distance management and footwork. He’s constantly looking to draw a reaction out of his opponent and land counterattacks. Rakić favors power to volume, regularly throwing single shots and naked kicks from range. Training at American Top Team, he remains technical throughout, never telegraphing shots or getting sloppy. He’ll often lunge forward and throw long, heavy, straight shots before returning to distance and throwing kicks. Rakić has seven first-round knockouts and can produce a flash finish anytime.
#3 Robert Whittaker vs. #13 Khamzat Chimaev
Middleweight Bout
Robert Whittaker: 27-7-0, 11 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Khamzat Chimaev: 13-0-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Whittaker has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #6 ranked Middleweight Marvin Vettori (19-7-1), #7 ranked Middleweight Jared Cannonier (17-8-0), and #10 ranked Middleweight Paulo Costa (14-4-0). He is an excellent, technical striker in perpetual motion, constantly bouncing and throwing everything in combination. Utilizing his karate background, he has fantastic lead leg attacks and throws all his shots tight and straight. Training at Gracie Jiu-Jitsu SG, Whittaker varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly and never overextending or getting sloppy. He’s elusive, never staying in one spot for long, and always keeps his head off the centerline. He does an excellent job mixing kicks into combinations, making them extremely hard to predict or see before they land. Whittaker has great cardio and remains composed throughout, easily able to push a heavy pace for 25 minutes.
Chimaev is undefeated and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Welterweight Kamaru Usman (20-4-0), #8 ranked Welterweight Gilbert Burns (22-8-0), and Kevin Holland (26-12-0). He is a prolific finisher, having only absorbed a single strike in his UFC career prior to his meeting with Gilbert Burns. He has one-punch knockout power, is willing to eat a shot to land one, and is exceptionally well-rounded. Training at Allstars Training Center, Chimaev is a powerful wrestler, using devastating ground and pound and heavy top pressure to punish his opponent on the mat. He’s a lengthy fighter and makes excellent use of it, often landing power shots at range and using his striking to set up his wrestling attack. He’s never been taken down in the UFC and averages nearly four takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, almost always dictating where the fight occurs. Eight of Chimaev’s eleven finishes have come in the first round, but he’s also shown solid cardio, making him always dangerous.
(C) Ilia Topuria vs. #2 Max Holloway
Featherweight Title Bout
Ilia Topuria: 15-0-0, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Max Holloway: 26-7-0, 12 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Topuria is undefeated with UFC victories over #1 ranked Featherweight Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0), #8 ranked Featherweight Josh Emmett (19-4-0), and #13 ranked Featherweight Bryce Mitchell (16-3-0). He uses a boxing style on the feet, staying composed and fighting behind his jab while evenly mixing up his attacks between the head and body. He has big-time power in both hands and can produce flash knockouts anytime. Training at Climent Club, Topuria is an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in BJJ and landing, on average, nearly two takedowns per fifteen minutes. He has fantastic wrestling, regularly using double-leg takedowns to bring his opponent to the mat before looking to advance position or land ground and pound. He does a great job of staying aware of any submission attempts thrown his way while often pursuing submissions of his own, typically chokes. No matter where the fight goes, Topuria will relentlessly pursue a finish by any means necessary.
Holloway has won four of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #3 ranked Lightweight Justin Gaethje (25-5-0), #4 ranked Featherweight Yair Rodríguez (16-5-0), and #6 ranked Featherweight Brian Ortega (16-4-0). One of the most respected fighters in the sport, he’s a fantastic striker capable of astronomical volume. He pushes a heavy pace and remains technical throughout, fighting behind his jab and never wasting energy. Holloway has excellent distance management and footwork, remaining in perpetual motion and landing damage without receiving much in return. Training at Gracie Technics, he has a solid submission game and has defended 84% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC, but he rarely goes to the ground. He’ll constantly look to counterstrike, slipping his opponent’s attacks before landing his own. Holloway has a granite chin and has never been knocked down in the UFC, always coming forward and engaging the fight wherever it goes.
Best Bets
Murphy vs. Ige to Go the Distance: Although the entire main card is excellent, this matchup has not received the attention it deserves. Both men have proven their ability to put on bangers, especially recently, and both are coming off of highly entertaining fights. On top of their abilities to produce great fights, they’ve proven highly durable; Murphy is undefeated, and Ige has never been finished. They’re both very well-rounded, and this fight could end practically anywhere, but considering the toughness and technicality of these fighters, I expect it to go all three rounds.
Robert Whittaker Moneyline: I will be entirely honest: I am not a fan of Chimaev whatsoever, thanks to his ridiculous antics and constant need to pull out of fights. Beyond my dislike for him, though, I genuinely believe Whittaker has the tools to defeat him. While he’s well known for his excellent striking and punching power, his grappling is often underrated. Across 22 UFC fights, Whittaker has defended 82% of takedowns attempted on him and has beaten prolific grapplers such as Jacare Souza, Yoel Romero, and Derek Brunson. He has also now had two full training camps specifically for Chimaev due to the previous cancellation of this matchup, so I’m sure he’s been wrestling non-stop. Whittaker is the more technical striker of the two, and if he can survive the early onslaught and keep the fight standing, he has a distinct advantage on the feet. Whether through his grappling or his striking, I believe Whittaker will be the first man in MMA to defeat Chimaev.
Topuria vs. Holloway to Go the Distance: After much thought, I cannot pick a winner in this fight. I love both fighters and believe they are truly the best in the world at 145 pounds. Both have distinct advantages in this matchup, and both have looked unbeatable as of late. While these fighters don’t have much in common, one thing they share is exceptional durability. While Holloway’s chin practically has its own UFC legacy, Topuria has also shown an incredible ability to eat shots and recover, particularly in his fight with Jai Herbert. Holloway hasn’t been finished since his UFC debut in 2012, and Topuria is undefeated. Not many things about this matchup are predictable, but I’m confident this fight goes all five rounds.
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
The UFC remains in Las Vegas to host another outstanding Fight Night card from the APEX Center. The card features plenty of excellent fights and is filled with hot prospects, rising stars, and established veterans, all looking to prove themselves on the biggest stage in MMA. In the co-main event, we’ll witness a matchup of top-fifteen Bantamweights when divisional stalwart Rob Font takes on the red-hot Kyler Phillips. In the main event, two excellent scrappers look for their chance to move up the Middleweight ladder when Anthony Hernandez faces off against Michel Pereira. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda
Featherweight Bout
Darren Elkins: 28-11-0, 9 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Daniel Pineda: 28-16-0, 9 KO/TKO, 19 Sub.
Elkins has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Michael Johnson (23-19-0), TJ Brown (17-12-0), and Mirsad Bektic (14-3-0). Known as one of the grittiest grapplers in MMA, he uses his toughness and relentless pace to wear down his opponents. He’s landing, on averaging, nearly three takedowns per fifteen minutes and is a relentless wrestler, regularly chaining together takedown attempts. Elkins has heavy top pressure and will constantly look to posture up and land ground and pound. He tends to box on the feet, fighting behind his jab and using his striking to close the distance and set up his grappling. Training at Team Alpha Male, he’s always willing to eat a shot to land one and is easily drawn into a brawl. One of the longest-tenured fighters in the promotion, he holds multiple Featherweight records, including the most unanimous decision wins, takedowns landed, submissions attempted, control time, and top position time.
Pineda has won one of his last five bouts with one no-contest and has UFC victories over Herbert Burns (11-6-0) and Tucker Lutz (12-4-0). A wild fighter, he has big-time power in his hands and a dangerous submission game. He comes out guns blazing, throwing every shot with power and regularly attempting spinning attacks. Pineda is always coming forward and looking to land bombs, rarely taking any steam off of his shots. He’s averaging nearly two takedowns landed and two submissions attempted per fifteen minutes and is very active in top position. Training at 4oz Fight Club, he’s always dangerous on top and will constantly hunt for his opponent’s neck, with twelve of his nineteen submissions coming via some form of choke. Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories, with seventeen finishes coming in round one, and he’s always dangerous.
Cameron Smotherman vs. Jake Hadley
Bantamweight Bout
Cameron Smotherman: 11-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Jake Hadley: 11-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Smotherman has won four of his last five outings and is making his UFC debut. He’s a powerful, technical striker who’s always dangerous. He pushes a consistent pace and has excellent cardio, easily carrying his power and speed across three rounds. Smotherman has power in both hands and tends to headhunt, throwing every shot with knockout intentions and never looking just to touch his opponent. He’s most comfortable on the feet but is a competent defensive grappler, possessing solid chokes and is capable of surviving off his back. He can do significant damage without much space, especially with his knees, which he’ll throw regularly. Smotherman has one-shot knockout power and can create a highlight finish at any time.
Hadley has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Malcolm Gordon (14-8-0), Caolán Loughran (9-2-0), and Carlos Candelario (8-3-0). He’s a well-rounded fighter with fast hands and dangerous submissions. He fights behind his jab and floats along the outside of the cage, always moving while peppering his opponent with shots. Hadley varies his shots well, attacking the head, body, and legs evenly, never telegraphing or loading up. He’s averaging over one submission attempted per fifteen minutes and has excellent sweeps and reversals, often finding himself in top position when the fight hits the mat. Training at Fearless MMA, he can find submissions with impressive speed and is especially dangerous if he can find his opponent’s neck, with all his submissions coming via a form of choke. Hadley can produce quick finishes but also has solid cardio, carrying his power and speed across all three rounds.
Charles Johnson vs. Sumudaerji
Flyweight Bout
Charles Johnson: 16-6-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Sumudaerji: 16-6-0, 13 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Johnson has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Joshua Van (11-2-0), Azat Maksum (17-1-0), and Jake Hadley (11-3-0). He’s a dangerous striker with solid wrestling and submissions. He always throws in combination, constantly mixing in kicks and evenly spreading his shots across the head, legs, and body. He has excellent footwork, regularly switching stances, and has great head movement, rarely keeping his head on the centerline. Training at Murcielago MMA, Johnson is willing to grapple and is a tenacious wrestler who’s capable of defending takedowns and landing his own. He has never been finished and has an excellent chin, always willing to eat a shot to land one. Johnson tends to improve as the fight continues and has scored 60% of his finishes after round 1.
Sumudaerji has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Malcolm Gordon (14-8-0), Andre Soukhamthath (14-10-0), and Zarrukh Adashev (4-4-0). He’s a power scrapper with a lethal arsenal of kicks. He’s highly accurate and throws every shot with knockout intentions, typically favoring power to volume. He remains technical throughout, constantly pumping out his jab before unloading heavy kicks. Sumudaerji has excellent distance management but isn’t the most mobile striker, often standing still in front of his opponents while looking to counter-strike. Training at Team Alpha Male, he’s unlikely to initiate grappling exchanges but has solid defensive wrestling and has defended 66% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He carries his power throughout and is always dangerous, but is at his best in a slower, kickboxing-based battle where he can control the center of the Octagon. Sumudaerji always comes out guns blazing, with ten of his thirteen knockouts coming in round one.
#10 Rob Font vs. #12 Kyler Phillips
Bantamweight Bout
Rob Font: 20-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Kyler Phillips: 12-2-0, 5 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Font has won one of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Adrian Yanez (17-5-0), Ricky Simon (20-6-0), and Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0). He is a hands-first fighter, preferring to do damage with his crisp boxing skills. Training with New England Cartel, he always fights behind his jab, has excellent footwork, and does a great job cutting off the cage. Font throws everything in combination and has fantastic output, averaging about 88 significant strikes landed in his last five wins. He also has excellent hand speed and solid power, tending to heat up and increase his pace as the fight continues. He’s willing to grapple, and averages just under one takedown landed per fifteen minutes, but is at his best when he’s holding the center of the cage and dictating the pace of the fight. Font never gets too wild or telegraphs his shots, constantly moving and looking for different angles to attack.
Phillips has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #8 ranked Bantamweight Song Yadong (21-8-1), Pedro Munhoz (20-9-0), and Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0). He’s an exceptionally fluid striker with an impressive grappling background. He has excellent footwork and is highly elusive, constantly entering and exiting the pocket without absorbing significant damage. Phillips throws everything in combination, regularly mixing in kicks while continually changing levels and attacking at different angles. Averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes in the UFC, he’s an accomplished grappler, holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and state championships in wrestling and Judo. He’s impressively explosive and quick, able to throw heavy or commit to strikes without telegraphing. Phillips has excellent cardio and pushes a heavy pace throughout, landing, on average, about 80 significant strikes in his last five fights.
#13 Anthony Hernandez vs. #14 Michel Pereira
Middleweight Bout
Anthony Hernandez: 12-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Michel Pereira: 31-11-0, 11 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Hernandez is on a five-fight win streak and has UFC victories over JunYong Park (18-6-0), Roman Kopylov (13-3-0), and Edmen Shahbazyan (13-5-0). He’s a relentless grappler who’s always working for a finish and gets better as the fight goes on. He throws in combination on the feet and will use his striking to get into the pocket to either pursue a takedown or damage his opponent in the clinch. Hernandez is extremely durable, able to take a beating and still push a consistent pace, and often finds submissions out of seemingly nowhere. Training with MMAGold Fight Team, he has smothering clinch and top control, great takedowns, and extremely dangerous chokes, especially his guillotine. Five of his eight career submission wins are via guillotine, and he often performs his own modified version of the choke. Hernandez is very fluid on the ground and always finds a way to get to a safe position, always choosing position over submission.
Michel Pereira is on an eight-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8-0), Khaos Williams (15-3-0), and Michael Oleksiejczuk (19-9-0). One of the most unique fighters in the UFC, he’s known for his wild antics within the cage. Training at Overcome Academy, he’s always willing to get wild, throwing open-hand slaps, jumping knees and kicks, and even attempting backflips. Pereira’s unorthodox style makes him both elusive and impossible to predict. He has reigned in his style in recent fights, using a more measured, accurate approach, fighting much more efficiently with improved cardiovascular endurance. He’s averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes, has heavy ground and pound, and a dangerous submission game, particularly chokes. Pereira always pushes a heavy pace and constantly pursues a finish wherever the fight lands.
Best Bets
Hadley vs. Smotherman to Not Go the Distance: In an extremely late-replacement matchup, Smotherman stepped in on just four days' notice to face Hadley. Although he’s making his UFC debut, Smotherman is an excellent prospect who has faced solid competition on the regional scene. He has dangerous power in his hands, is certainly looking to make a statement, and will likely push a heavy pace. Hadley himself is a high-paced fighter, constantly throwing and moving, rarely taking his foot off the gas. Although Hadley is the more well-rounded of the two, Smotherman has the equalizer with his power. I expect both men to meet in the middle and have some wild early exchanges, ultimately leading to someone getting finished.
Charles Johnson Moneyline: These two fighters could not have more opposite career trajectories in the UFC. Johnson had a rough start, losing four of his first six bouts in the promotion before embarking on his current three-fight win streak. Sumudaerji, however, got off to a much better start in the UFC, winning three of his first four outings before ending up on his current two-fight skid of submission losses. Johnson certainly has the momentum advantage going into this fight, but he is also the much more put-together fighter. He’s shown solid grappling both offensively and defensively, great cardio, and impressive durability. Sumudaerji is almost a pure striker, and although he has decent takedown defense, he has struggled severely when put on his back or drawn into brawls. Although Johnson has been content to strike in his recent fights, I expect him to put his superior grappling skills to work in this matchup. While I do expect him to engage on the feet, I also expect him to land multiple takedowns and wear Sumudaerji out en route to another impressive victory.
Anthony Hernandez Moneyline: One of the more surprising fights scheduled recently, this isn’t a matchup many fans expected to see. Both have incredibly different styles, with Pereira being a wild, powerful striker and Hernandez a gritty, tenacious grappler. This matchup seemingly came out of nowhere because of Pereira’s recent opponents, with Hernandez being a significant step up in competition. Although Pereira is about as unpredictable and potent of a striker as possible, Hernandez offers many issues he hasn’t seen much of during his UFC tenure. Hernandez is exceptionally durable, willing to engage anywhere, and has outstanding grappling and submission games, all things Pereira has hardly faced, especially not all put together. I expect Hernandez to survive the wild blitzes of Pereira, smother and slow him down with clinch work and takedowns, and end Pereira’s eight-fight win streak.
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira Preview
The UFC comes home to the APEX center with a fantastic Fight Night card. From start to finish, this card is filled with explosive matchups and fighters vying to make their name on the biggest stage in MMA. In the co-main event, we’ll see Middleweight mainstay Brad Tavares faceoff against the always-dangerous JunYong Park. In the main event, the #1 ranked Brandon Royval will take on the red-hot Tatsuro Taira in a fight with possible title implications. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Daniel Rodriguez vs. Alex Morono
Welterweight Bout
Daniel Rodriguez: 17-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Alex Morono: 24-10-0, 6 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Rodriguez has won two of his last outings and has UFC victories over Mike Perry (14-8-0), Tim Means (33-17-1), and Li Jingliang (19-9-0). He’s a technical Muay Thai striker who favors kicks over punches. He remains composed throughout the fight, fighting behind his jab and constantly pursuing a finish without getting sloppy. Training at Xtreme Couture, Rodriguez has great movement and footwork on the feet, attacking from different angles with a variety of strikes. He has exceptionally fast kicks, usually throwing to the legs at the beginning and end of combinations. He’s proven highly durable, regularly surviving in deep waters and finding his way back into fights. Rodriguez is unlikely to initiate grappling exchanges but has solid takedown defense and does an excellent job of getting back to his feet where he’s most comfortable.
Morono has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Donald Cerrone (36-17-0), Song Kenan (22-8-0), and Court McGee (23-13-0). He is an exceptionally well-rounded fighter, holding black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Taekwondo. He keeps his guard high and remains technical throughout, always fighting behind his jab and throwing in combination. Morono has excellent footwork and head movement, often just getting out of the way of strikes and regularly ducking his head to slip and counter. He has solid cardio and always pushes a heavy pace, having landed 90 or more significant strikes in a fight seven times in the UFC. Training at Fortis MMA, he won’t often initiate grappling exchanges but has a slick submission game and is dangerous on the mat. Morono is very dangerous early, with eleven of his thirteen finishes coming in round one.
Grant Dawson vs. Rafa Garcia
Lightweight Bout
Grant Dawson: 21-2-1, 4 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.
Rafa Garcia: 16-3-0, 1 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Dawson has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Jared Gordon (20-7-0), Mark O. Madsen (12-2-0), and Damir Ismagulov (24-3-0). He is an excellent grappler with a lethal submission game, rarely wasting much time before taking the fight to the mat. He’s averaging over three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes in the UFC and has excellent control, especially on the back. Dawson is highly active on the ground, constantly advancing position and pursuing a finish. Of his 13 career submissions, 11 are rear-naked chokes, so he is incredibly dangerous if he can secure his opponent’s back. He throws everything with power on the feet and stays behind his jab, not typically utilizing much footwork. Training at American Top Team, Dawson has decent head movement and rarely absorbs significant damage, but he isn’t the most technical striker and will primarily throw basic combinations.
Garcia has won four of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Maheshate (10-3-0), Clay Guida (38-21-0), and Natan Levy (8-2-0). He’s a well-rounded, gritty fighter that’s comfortable anywhere the fight goes. Often at a reach disadvantage, he’s constantly looking to close distance, regularly coming forward with heavy hooks and overhands. Garcia has solid cardio, pushing a consistent pace throughout, and is always willing to engage. Training at Bloodline Combat, he’s landing, on average, over three takedowns per fifteen minutes and has excellent timing, never telegraphing his shots. He’s a grinder in top position, looking to constantly advance and land ground and pound to wear down his opponents. Garcia is always dangerous, especially early on, with five of his eight submissions coming in the first round.
Chidi Njokuani vs. Jared Gooden
Welterweight Bout
Chidi Njokuani: 23-10-0, 14 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Jared Gooden: 23-9-0, 11 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Njokuani has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Dusko Todorovic (12-4-0), Marc-Andre Barriault (16-8-0), and Rhys McKee (13-6-1). He’s a patient Muay Thai striker who always keeps his guard high and constantly attacks with his lead leg. He’s constantly moving and feinting but stays composed, regularly looking for openings to unleash combinations. Training at Janjira Muay Thai, Njokuani has excellent knees in the clinch and can land significant damage without much space. He’s very defensively sound, having defended 55% of significant strikes attempted on him. He’s been fighting at the sport's top level for nearly a decade, having spent four years in Bellator prior to joining the UFC. The majority of Njokuani’s knockouts have come in the first round, and he’s at his most dangerous early on.
Gooden has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Wellington Turman (18-8-0) and Niklas Stolze (13-7-0). He’s a heavy-handed striker with a dangerous submission game. He fights behind his jab, throws every punch with knockout intentions, and varies his shots well, regularly changing levels and attacking the body. He typically throws tight, straight shots but is willing to brawl and exchange hooks in the pocket. Gooden is active on the mat on his back and in top position, regularly looking to sweep or secure a submission. Training at X3 Sports, he’s particularly dangerous if he can get to his opponent’s back, where he’ll constantly pursue chokes. Gooden is on his second run in the UFC and earned a Performance of the Night bonus in his last appearance.
Brad Tavares vs. JunYong Park
Middleweight Bout
Brad Tavares: 20-10-0, 5 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
JunYong Park: 17-6-0, 5 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Tavares has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Krzysztof Jotko (24-6-0), Chris Weidman (16-7-0), and Nate Marquardt (35-19-2). He’s an excellent, technical striker, always throwing in combination and keeping all his shots tight and straight. He has great distance management and is constantly moving, never telegraphing or loading up. Tavares varies his shots, attacking the head and body evenly and regularly chewing up his opponent’s legs with kicks. Training at Xtreme Couture, he has fantastic takedown defense, having defended 81% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He has solid cardio and can comfortably push a consistent pace across 15 minutes, utilizing both power and volume in his striking. Tavares is at his best when he’s controlling the center of the octagon and the fight's pace.
Park has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Eryk Anders (16-8-0), Albert Duraev (16-5-0), and Marc-Andre Barriault (16-8-0). He’s a well-rounded scrapper who’s always coming forward and pressuring his opponents. He won’t utilize much movement or footwork, staying right in his opponent’s face and constantly firing his jab. Park is always willing to eat a shot to land one and heats up as the fight continues, unloading more volume and increasing his pace over time. He’s averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has a dangerous submission game, occasionally even jumping chokes while standing. He has excellent top control and is always active on top, raining down shots and looking for submission openings. Five of Park’s six submissions are rear-naked chokes, and he’s exceptionally dangerous if he can take his opponent’s back.
#1 Brandon Royval #5 Tatsuro Taira
Flyweight Bout
Brandon Royval: 16-7-0, 4 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Tatsuro Taira: 16-0-0, 5 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Royval has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Flyweight Brandon Moreno (21-8-2), #4 ranked Flyweight Kai Kara-France (25-11-0), and #7 ranked Flyweight Matheus Nicolau (19-5-1). He’s a wild brawler who pushes a crazy pace and is dangerous anywhere the fight goes. Training with Mile High Militia, “Raw Dawg” has been awarded four bonuses in nine bouts in the promotion and always leaves everything in the cage. Royval is dangerous on top and off his back, always moving on the ground and searching for submissions. He throws everything in combination on the feet and always comes forward looking to do damage. He’s always willing to exchange blows in the pocket and has shown an excellent ability to recover from being hurt. Royval has set multiple Flyweight records in his four-year UFC tenure, including the most significant strikes attempted in a fight, most total strikes both attempted and landed in a fight, and the most head strikes landed in a fight.
Taira is undefeated and has UFC victories over #6 ranked Flyweight Alex Perez (25-9-0), Jesus Aguilar (11-2-0), and Carlos Hernandez (9-4-0). A dangerous grappler with impressive power, he’s constantly looking to take the fight to the mat and secure a finish. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed and two submissions attempted per fifteen minutes and is very efficient on the ground. Taira has fantastic scrambles and reversals, seemingly always coming out the victor in grappling exchanges. Training at Paraestra Okinawa, he’s highly accurate on the feet, having landed 71% of the significant strikes he’s attempted, always remaining technical. He’ll usually prefer submissions to ground and pound but will unload on his opponent if given the chance. Taira has been awarded three post-fight bonuses in his last five appearances and is always pursuing a highlight victory.
Best Bets
Chidi Njokuani Moneyline: One of the more exciting matchups on the main card; I’d be shocked to see this one go to the judges. With 33 combined finishes between the two, it’s a safe bet someone will sleep. Both seem to have distinct advantages in this matchup, with Njokuani having the striking advantage and Gooden the grappling advantage. Despite this, Gooden is not guaranteed to pursue grappling, regularly getting into brawls on the feet. Njokuani thrives in a firefight, especially when he possesses the reach advantage. While Gooden has serious power in his hands, Njokuani is by far the more polished, experienced striker. I expect Njokuani to weather an early storm from Gooden, keep the fight at kickboxing range, and earn a solid victory.
JunYong Park Moneyline: This is an excellent fight between two very dangerous, high-level fighters. While well-rounded, Tavares definitely prefers to keep the fight standing and is most dangerous on his feet. On the other hand, Park tends to do a bit of everything, willing to engage on the feet and pursue takedowns. Despite Tavares being the more specialized of the two, I believe Park can match him anywhere in terms of technical skill. Along with that, I believe Park pushes the heavier pace of the two, often increasing his volume as the fight continues. I expect Park to wear down Tavares with constant pressure and takedown attempts, ultimately controlling and outpacing him to a win.
Royval vs. Taira to Not Go the Distance: This is an absolutely outstanding matchup, and I expect fireworks. Both are dangerous on the feet and the mat and push a heavy pace. Royval is rarely in a bad fight and always fights with a “kill or be killed” mentality, with just three of his last ten fights going the distance. Although Taira made his debut just two years ago, he has proven to be a prolific finisher and has only seen the third round twice in the UFC. They both offer very distinct challenges for each other as well; Taira has never fought someone as wild or well-rounded as Royval, while Royval has struggled with dominant grapplers like Pantoja. This is an incredibly tough fight to predict the winner, but I’m comfortable saying this does not last 25 minutes. There will be a finish to this fight, whether by knockout or submission.
UFC 307 Preview
This Saturday, the UFC brings a fantastic pay-per-view event to the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The card is filled with established names, rising stars, and top-notch matchups. In the co-main event, we’ll see Women’s Bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington attempt the first defense of her title reign against the always dangerous Julianna Peña. In the main event, the most dominant striker in MMA, Alex Pereira, will defend his Light Heavyweight title against a heavy-handed marauder, Khalil Rountree Jr. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
#2 Ketlen Vieira vs. #3 Kayla Harrison
Women’s Bantamweight Bout
Ketlen Vieira: 14-3-0, 2 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Kayla Harrison: 17-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Vieira has won three of her last five fights and has UFC victories over #8 ranked Bantamweight Holly Holm (15-7-0), #11 ranked Bantamweight Miesha Tate (20-9-0), and Pannie Kianzad (17-9-0). She’s a dominant grappler with solid power in her hands who’s constantly coming forward. She holds black belts in Judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is very defensively sound, holding the highest takedown defense percentage in UFC Women’s Bantamweight history at 92%. Vieira has excellent takedown offense as well, capable of securing them in open space or along the fence, and has heavy pressure in top position. Training at Nova Uniao, she’s patient on top, always choosing position over submission and never putting herself in dangerous spots. She prefers submissions over ground and pound, regularly pursuing chokes even when standing. Vieira has landed a takedown in all her UFC victories but one and always looks to take it to the mat.
Harrison has won four of her last five bouts and has a UFC victory over Holly Holm (15-7-0). She is a former two-time Olympic gold medalist Judoka and a two-time PFL Women’s Lightweight champion. She is exceptionally powerful and explosive, especially in the clinch, where she has excellent throws and trips that she regularly uses to get the fight to the mat. She has heavy, smothering top pressure and is always working to advance position or posture up. Harrison will constantly unload ground and pound onto her opponent to land damage or create submission openings. She stays patient and composed on the feet, throwing everything tight and straight while using her striking to set up her grappling, regularly punching into the clinch. Nine of Harrison’s thirteen finishes have come in round one, and she pushes a heavy pace from the opening bell.
#10 Roman Dolidze vs. #15 (WW) Kevin Holland
Middleweight Bout
Roman Dolidze: 13-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Kevin Holland: 26-11-0, 13 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Dolidze has won three of his last five outings and has wins over #11 ranked Middleweight Jack Hermansson (24-8-0), #12 ranked Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith (38-20-0), and Phil Hawes (12-6-0). He is an accomplished grappler outside of MMA and has a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Sambo background. Averaging over one takedown landed and one submission attempted per fifteen minutes, he is most at home on the mat. Dolidze is excellent in the clinch and very hard to shake off, possessing devastating striking in close, particularly knees. Training at Xtreme Couture, he won’t put out too much ground and pound, choosing to focus on advancing position. He has solid power in his hands and prefers to counter-strike when on the feet, not utilizing much footwork but always moving his head. Dolidze gets his best work done without much space, regularly throwing power shots in the pocket while exiting the clinch.
Holland has won two of his last five fights and has wins over #11 ranked Welterweight Joaquin Buckley (19-6-0), #13 ranked Middleweight Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0), and Michael Chiesa (19-7-0). A wild scrapper who’s comfortable anywhere the fight goes, he’s always dangerous and constantly pursuing a finish. He’s an aggressive striker, throwing everything in combination, and is always willing to brawl. Holland does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket without taking much damage, but he has no problem hanging in close to exchange on the inside. Training at Travis Lutter BJJ, he tends to throw kicks at range, using his legs to set up his hands, often throwing kicks naked or at the start of a combination. He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has a slick submission game, possessing particularly lethal chokes. Holland is one of the most active fighters in MMA, having fought 22 times in the UFC since 2018, and has earned eight post-fight bonuses in his promotional tenure.
#10 José Aldo vs. #11 Mario Bautista
Bantamweight Bout
José Aldo: 32-8-0, 17 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Mario Bautista: 14-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Aldo has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #7 ranked Bantamweight Chito Vera (23-10-1), #9 ranked Bantamweight Rob Font (20-8-0), and #11 ranked Lightweight Renato Moicano (20-5-1). Widely considered the Featherweight GOAT, he is a legend of the sport, holding eight victories in title fights and two decades of experience. He’s an excellent technical striker who throws everything with power and in combination. Training at Nova Uniao, Aldo utilizes a mix of devastating leg kicks and punch combinations to batter his opponent. He is one of the best defensive wrestlers of all time and has defended 91% of takedowns attempted on him, dating back to his time in the WEC. He has excellent submissions, heavy ground and pound, and smothering top pressure when the fight goes to the mat. Aldo is one of the most vicious strikers in the history of MMA and is always hunting for a finish.
Bautista is on a six-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Miles Johns (15-2-0), Ricky Simon (20-6-0), and Da’Mon Blackshear (14-7-1). He’s incredibly quick and dangerous on the feet, regularly moving in and out of the pocket without taking damage. He throws everything with power, keeps his punches tight and technical, and attacks the head and body evenly. Training at the MMA Lab, Bautista always comes forward, throwing combinations and typically a steady flow of low kicks. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has landed at least one takedown in five of his last six fights. He’s as quick on the ground as on the feet, transitioning and passing efficiently and effectively. Bautista has heavy top pressure and will find submissions in the blink of an eye, possessing four first-round submission victories in the UFC.
(C) Raquel Pennington vs. #1 Julianna Peña
Women’s Bantamweight Title Bout
Raquel Pennington: 16-9-0, 1 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Julianna Peña: 12-5-0,- 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Pennington is on a six-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Bantamweight Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0), #6 ranked Bantamweight Irene Aldana (15-8-0), and #7 ranked Bantamweight Mayra Bueno Silva (10-4-1). She’s a well-rounded scrapper with excellent boxing and cardio. Averaging over 84 significant strikes landed in her last five fights, she pushes a consistently heavy pace and always throws in combination. Pennington is a highly accurate striker, remaining technical throughout and throwing every shot with purpose. Training at Altitude MMA, she has excellent clinch control and sets up her grappling with her striking. She’ll often close the distance with her boxing before clinching up and wearing her opponent down with knees and punches. Despite a lack of KO’s, Pennington has sneaky punching power, often touching up her opponents with jabs and straights before throwing with full power.
Peña has won three of her last five outings and has UFC victories over Amanda Nunes (23-5-0), Sara McMann (14-7-0), and Cat Zingano (14-5-0). The winner of the 18th season of the Ultimate Fighter, she’s a high-pace brawler with a dangerous submission game. She’s constantly pressuring forward, throwing everything with power and in combination. Peña fights behind her jab, continually pumping it out before throwing heavy straights and looping hooks. She’s landing, on average, nearly two takedowns per fifteen minutes and advances position very quickly on the mat. She’s also proven defensively sound, remaining dangerous even on her back, and can survive in deep waters. Peña heats up as the fight continues, with most of her UFC finishes coming in round two or three.
(C) Alex Pereira vs. #8 Khalil Rountree Jr.
Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Alex Pereira: 11-2-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Khalil Rountree Jr.: 14-5-0, 10 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Pereira has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Middleweight Sean Strickland (29-6-0), #1 ranked Light Heavyweight Jiří Procházka (30-5-1), and #4 ranked Light Heavyweight Jan Błachowicz (29-10-1). He is a former Glory Kickboxing Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion with a professional kickboxing record of 40-7. He is notorious for having the most devastating left hook in combat sports and loves letting it fly. Pereira has just as brutal kicks to back up his heavy hands, which he’ll often use to find his range before getting into the pocket to throw big hooks and devastating knees. He’s comfortable fighting on the outside of the octagon but is most dangerous when he takes the center and cuts off his opponent. Pereira has shown solid takedown defense and continually improving grappling, but still prefers to keep it standing. Training at Teixeira MMA, he doesn’t move a ton on the feet, occasionally standing straight in front of his opponent, waiting for them to throw something so he can fire back.
Rountree is on a five-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #12 ranked Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith (38-20-0), Dustin Jacoby (19-9-1), and Modestas Bukauskas (16-6-0). He scored the only oblique kick finish in UFC history when he obliterated Bukauskas’ knee in 2021. He has a background in Muay Thai, but his best weapons are his hands. Rountree will regularly explode forward, swinging massive looping hooks and throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions. Training at Syndicate MMA, he can fight a slower, more technical fight despite his tendency to get wild, but he can gas himself out sometimes in his search for a finish. He’s at his best early on in the fight and when he can control the center of the Octagon, using his forward pressure and crazy power to damage his opponents. Rountree has never landed a takedown in the UFC and rarely initiates grappling exchanges.
Best Bets
José Aldo Moneyline: The King of Rio returns to make his second appearance since his brief retirement, this time against an even more formidable opponent in Mario Bautista. Bautista is exceptionally high-rounded, pushes a heavy pace, and is always dangerous. This fight is an excellent matchup, but I must admit my bias; we’re talking about one of the greatest fighters ever and one of my all-time favorites. Aldo looked excellent in his first fight back against Jonathan Martinez, showing the same speed, power, and exceptional takedown defense he’s had all his career. While Bautista is a great striker, his grappling is essential to his game, possessing at least one minute of control time in all his last five fights. Aldo is arguably the greatest anti-wrestler of all time, having been taken down just ten times across 29 fights under the Zuffa banner. I expect Aldo to outpace Bautista on the feet, deny his takedowns, and earn another impressive victory.
Julianna Peña Moneyline: Easily the most slept-on matchup on the card, there is potential for fireworks in this title fight. Although Pennington won the belt in a relatively dull fight, this generally isn’t the case when she steps into the Octagon, typically pushing a heavy pace and getting into brawls. While Peña is an excellent grappler and will likely pursue takedowns in this matchup, she also has brawling tendencies and loves letting her hands go in the pocket. I would not be surprised if we see wild exchanges early on or even knockdowns. Besides their similarities, Peña pushes the heavier pace and holds the power advantage, a significant issue for Pennington, who tends to wear down her opponents over time with her own pace. I expect Peña to get the better of the exchanges on the feet, secure takedowns, and control Pennington to earn back the title she once held.
Alex Pereira by KO/TKO: Per usual, there’s significant hype around an Alex Pereira title fight, albeit not for the typical reason. Many MMA pundits have questioned how deserving Rountree Jr. is of this title shot, especially with Magomed Ankalaev sitting at #2 in the division on a 12-fight unbeaten streak. Regardless of these criticisms, Rountree Jr. is a dangerous matchup for any fighter at Light Heavyweight, including the champion. Rountree Jr. is incredibly explosive and powerful and has excellent technical Muay Thai to support his aggressive style. Unfortunately for Rountree Jr., he’s facing arguably the most devastating kickboxer in the history of the UFC. Pereira has the advantage in power and striking skill, two things Rountree Jr. often relies on. It’s also doubtful Rountree Jr. pursues any grappling, considering he hasn’t landed a single takedown in his UFC tenure. Ultimately, Pereira does what Rountree Jr. does, but better. I expect Pereira to control the distance and pace, force Rountree Jr. to take chances, and finally, retain his title with another terrifying knockout.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis Preview
The UFC hits the Accor Arena in Paris, France, with an outstanding Fight Night card. There are fantastic matchups from top to bottom, all filled with fighters looking to earn a highlight-reel victory. In the co-main event, two top-ten Middleweights will go toe-to-toe when #4 ranked Nassourdine Imavov takes on #8 ranked Brendan Allen. In the main event, two devastating Lightweight finishers collide in the octagon when #11 ranked Renato Moicano faces off against #12 ranked Benoît Saint Denis. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Farés Ziam vs. Matt Frevola
Lightweight Bout
Farés Ziam: 15-4-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Matt Frevola: 11-4-1, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Ziam has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Jai Herbert (13-5-1), Claudio Puelles (13-4-0), and Jamie Mullarkey (17-8-0). He is a patient, technical kickboxer, constantly feinting and looking for openings to land powerful straight shots. He’s at his best when he takes the center of the octagon and fights at range, picking his opponent apart with a mix of kicks and punches. Ziam is a capable grappler with a solid submission game, particularly chokes. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he’s very defensively sound, having defended 65% of significant strikes attempted on him in the UFC. He’s proven capable of surviving in deep waters on the ground, regularly getting taken down and fighting back to his feet. Ziam has outstruck his opponent in all of his UFC wins, always pushing a consistent pace throughout the fight.
Frevola has won three of his last five bouts and has wins over #14 ranked Lightweight Jalin Turner (14-8-0), Drew Dober (27-14-0), and Ottman Azaitar (13-2-0). He is a wild striker who always comes out guns blazing and pushes a heavy pace from start to finish. He relentlessly pressures his opponents, is always willing to brawl in the pocket, and throws everything in combination with serious power. Frevola tends to headhunt but won’t telegraph his attacks, possessing very fast kicks and one-shot knockout power. Training with Serra-Longo Fight Team, he started his UFC tenure as more of a grappler, averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes. He has solid top pressure and devastating ground and pound but seems content lately with staying on his feet. All of Frevola’s knockout wins have come in round one and he’s always pursuing a finish.
Morgan Charrière vs. Gabriel Miranda
Featherweight Bout
Morgan Charrière: 19-10-1, 11 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Gabriel Miranda: 17-6-0, 1 KO/TKO, 16 Sub.
Charrière has won four of his last five outings and has a UFC victory over Manolo Zecchini (11-4-0). A bit of an internet celebrity in France, he has accumulated a solid following and is a former Cage Warriors Featherweight champion. Training with Team Chapa Quente, he’s a technical striker with substantial power in his hands and brutal leg kicks. Charrière has excellent footwork and is very defensively sound, never taking much damage and always keeping his head off the centerline. He will remain calm and technical throughout and won’t get pulled into dogfights, typically forcing his opponents to the outside and picking them apart. On the ground, he has great top control and heavy ground and pound, particularly elbows. Charrière has gone five rounds multiple times in his career and has great cardio, often increasing his pace as the fight continues.
Miranda has won four of his last five fights and has a UFC victory over Shane Young (13-8-0). He’s a tenacious grappler who’s constantly looking to take it to the mat and find a submission. He uses his striking to set up his grappling, often blitzing into the pocket with combinations before pursuing takedowns. Miranda has excellent top pressure and is always working on the ground, constantly advancing position and attempting submissions. Training at MMA Masters, he won’t force anything in top position, transitioning between submissions while throwing ground and pound to create openings. He moves very quickly on the mat, often taking his opponent’s back with impressive speed. Ten of Miranda’s sixteen submissions have come via choke, and he’ll constantly hunt for his opponent’s neck.
Kevin Jousset vs. Bryan Battle
Welterweight Bout
Kevin Jousset: 10-2-0, 5 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Bryan Battle: 11-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Jousset is on a five-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Song Kenan (22-8-0) and Kiefer Crosbie (10-5-0). He’s a well-rounded fighter with technical striking and a background in Judo. He has an excellent jab and always fights behind it, regularly using it to set up kicks and combinations. Jousset supplies constant leg kicks and pushes a consistent pace throughout, never brawling or getting wild. He varies his shots well and is always dangerous, able to do significant damage at range and inside the pocket. He is a very proficient grappler, holding a 2nd dan black belt in Judo and a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Jousset is at his best at kickboxing range, controlling the pace and distance of the fight.
Battle has won three of his last five bouts with one no-contest and has UFC wins over Gabe Green (11-5-0), Takashi Sato (16-7-0), and AJ Fletcher (10-3-0). He is a diverse striker who’s constantly throwing and looking for openings to land tight straight shots. Training at Gladiators Academy, he has an excellent variety of kicks and often mixes them into combinations, throwing everything with purpose and accuracy. Battle has great head movement, footwork, and a solid chin, with him regularly marching through punches to get off his offense. Although he’s a fast starter, he tends to heat up as the fight continues, with six of his nine career finishes coming in the second round. He is willing to grapple and occasionally pursues takedowns but seems content doing most of his work on the feet despite having more submissions than knockouts. Battle has produced two brutal first-round knockouts in his last five outings, and he always looks to keep the judges out of it.
William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito
Featherweight Bout
William Gomis: 13-2-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Joanderson Brito: 17-3-1, 8 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Gomis is on an eleven-fight win streak since 2018 and has UFC victories over Jarno Errens (14-6-1), Francis Marshall (8-2-0), and Yanis Ghemmouri (12-3-0). He’s a patient, technical striker with a diverse kicking game. He won’t overwhelm his opponent with movement or volume, instead using accuracy and power to land damage. Training at MMA Factory, he’ll often end combinations with kicks and does an excellent job of moving in and out of the pocket without eating shots. He’s a solid wrestler, has fantastic takedown timing, and is very strong in the clinch. He’s patient in top position and won’t put himself in dangerous spots, but he has good pressure and is hard to shake off. Gomis is defensively sound everywhere, having defended 75% of the significant strikes and 81% of the takedowns attempted on him in the UFC.
Brito is on a five-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Jack Shore (17-2-0), Andre Fili (24-11-0), and Jonathan Pearce (14-6-0). He uses a brutal, highly aggressive Muay Thai style, constantly throwing long and devastating combos in pursuit of a knockout. He throws every shot with knockout intentions, regularly unloading hooks and overhands while mixing in kicks. Training at Chute Boxe JE, Brito is highly explosive and constantly coming forward, always willing to eat a shot to land one. He is a dangerous grappler, possessing an excellent submission game and brutal ground and pound. He can and will take the fight anywhere and doesn’t seem uncomfortable in any position, whether on the feet or the ground. In 21 professional fights, Brito has only been to the judges four times and always pushes a heavy pace.
#4 Nassourdine Imavov vs. #8 Brendan Allen
Middleweight Bout
Nassourdine Imavov: 14-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Brendan Allen: 24-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 14 Sub.
Imavov has won three of his last five outings with one no-contest and has UFC victories over #7 ranked Middleweight Jared Cannonier (17-8-0), #10 ranked Middleweight Roman Dolidze (13-3-0), and Joaquin Buckley (19-6-0). He utilizes a fluid kickboxing style on the feet, fighting behind his jab and throwing every shot with power. He constantly comes forward and has excellent distance management, and although he favors power to volume, he won’t telegraph shots or get wild. Imavov has excellent takedown defense and averages just under one takedown landed per fifteen minutes. He advances position exceptionally quickly on the mat, constantly raining down ground and pound and wearing down his opponent. He won’t force submissions, typically focusing on landing damage, but will pursue chokes if the opportunity is presented. Imavov has excellent technical skills but can get emotional in the cage and be drawn into a brawl.
Allen is on a seven-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #15 ranked Chris Curtis (31-11-0), Paul Craig (17-8-1), and Andre Muniz (24-6-0). He’s an excellent grappler with a lethal submission game and solid power in his hands. He’s always dangerous, whether on top or his back, constantly attempting submissions and looking to finish the fight. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he’ll throw heavy ground and pound in top position to open submission opportunities, typically pursuing chokes. He has solid striking to back up his grappling and has decent hands and kicks, using more of a boxing style when he’s on the feet. Although he pushes a heavy pace, he has solid cardio and can comfortably go five rounds. Allen has produced four wins via rear naked choke in his last five appearances and is deadly if he can find his opponent’s neck.
#11 Renato Moicano vs. #12 Benoît Saint Denis
Lightweight Bout
Renato Moicano: 19-5-1, 1 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Benoît Saint Denis: 13-2-0, 4 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Moicano has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Featherweight Calvin Kattar (23-8-0), #14 ranked Lightweight Jalin Turner (14-8-0), and Drew Dober (27-14-0). He is a grappling ace with an excellent submission game but is more than willing to throw down on the feet. With only five of his sixteen bouts in the promotion going the distance, he fights with a “kill or be killed” mentality. Moicano is dangerous in top position, especially if he takes his opponent’s back, with all his career submissions coming via rear-naked choke. He’s aggressive on the ground, always trying to improve to a better position, but is also intelligent and rarely puts himself in danger. On the feet, he has solid speed and power in his hands and loves to throw uppercuts and elbows when in close. Training at American Top Team, he often stays patient and picks his shots, waiting for openings to land combinations or attempt a takedown.
Saint-Denis has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Ismael Bonfim (20-4-0), Thiago Moisés (18-8-0), and Matt Frevola (11-4-1). A well-rounded scrapper, he’s constantly pressuring forward with heavy kicks and throwing bombs. He throws everything with fight-ending intentions and uses his striking to get inside and pursue takedowns. Saint-Denis is an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in Judo, a brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and a great variety of submissions on his record. Training at CYFIT, he typically secures takedowns quickly and has heavy top control, always choosing position over submission and rarely putting himself in risky spots. Whether on the feet or the mat, he’s always trying to end the fight and remains dangerous throughout. A decorated veteran and former Special Forces paratrooper, Saint-Denis is incredibly tough and capable of enduring impressive damage.
Best Bets
Bryan Battle Moneyline: A fantastic matchup of two highly skilled fighters, this could be one of the best fights on the entire card. Both are well-rounded but favor striking, with Jousset being a slower, technical kickboxer while Battle is constantly pushing the pace and walking through punches. Although Jousset likely has a grappling advantage, he hasn’t pursued takedowns with much urgency in his last two fights and seems content to strike. This tendency is definitely to the benefit of Battle: not only does he push the heavier pace, but he gets better the longer the fight continues. Jousset is tough and won’t be drawn into a brawl easily, but I expect Battle to keep coming forward and disrupt his timing, ultimately earning a victory.
Nassourdine Imavov by Decision: This is by far one of the toughest matchups on the card to predict. Both fighters have similar styles, sizes, reach, and statistics. Both are well-rounded and willing to mix it up, although Imavov favors striking while Allen favors grappling. Overall, I believe the biggest difference-maker is Imavov’s takedown defense; he’s proven very tough to get to the mat in previous appearances. While Allen is capable on the feet, he’s most comfortable on the mat, and Imavov is the more technical striker of the two. Cardio should be of no concern to either fighter, with both having gone five rounds recently, and both are very tough to finish. Ultimately, I expect Imavov to deny Allen’s takedowns and outpace him on the feet to earn a decision victory.
Renato Moicano Moneyline: A fantastic main event to top off this main card; I expect fireworks from this matchup. Both are well-rounded and dangerous everywhere, especially on the mat. Like Imavov and Allen, both are comfortable fighting anywhere, but Saint Denis favors striking while Moicano favors grappling. Unlike that matchup, though, I believe they’re evenly matched on the feet, and it’s the grappling that will be the difference in this fight. Although both are black belts in BJJ, Moicano is vastly more experienced and has fought a much higher level of talent than Saint Denis. I expect some early exchanges on the feet, but ultimately, I anticipate Moicano getting the fight to the mat and controlling his opponent. Saint Denis is incredibly durable and has never been submitted, so a finish may be hard to come by, but I expect an impressive victory for Moicano.
UFC 306 Preview
The UFC brings a sporting event to the Sphere in Las Vegas for the first time ever with an excellent pay-per-view card. This card has been stacked from top to bottom with rising stars, established names, and two fantastic title fights, all celebrating Mexican Independence Day. In the co-main event, we’ll see the trilogy bout between defending champion Alexa Grasso and former champion Valentina Shevchenko. In the main event, we’ll see a long-awaited matchup between two heated rivals, Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley and #1 contender Merab Dvalishvili. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode’ Osbourne
Flyweight Bout
Ronaldo Rodriguez: 16-2-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Ode’ Osbourne: 12-7-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Rodriguez is on a six-fight win streak and has a UFC victory over Denys Bondar (14-5-0). He’s a well-rounded, technical fighter who’s constantly coming forward and pursuing a finish. He favors power to volume and remains technical throughout, keeping his shots straight and tight while often looking to counter-strike. Rodriguez is highly durable and always willing to eat a shot to land one, regularly walking through punches to land his own offense. He has great scrambles and reversals on the mat, never accepts position on his back, and regularly throws up submission attempts. Training at ADAM Coatzacoalcos, he’s constantly pursuing a finish in top position, throwing ground and pound to open submission opportunities. Rodriguez has 18 pro fights along with 21 amateur bouts, making him highly experienced and visibly comfortable inside the cage despite his young age.
Osbourne has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over CJ Vergara (12-5-1), Charles Johnson (16-6-0), and Jerome Rivera (10-6-0). He’s a speedy striker with a diverse attack and a wrestling background. He fights behind his jab, throwing everything in combination and never loading up on shots, throwing every shot with impressive speed. Osbourne has heavy kicks and does an excellent job mixing them into combinations, regularly throwing them to the legs and body. Although he doesn’t move his feet much, he’s constantly feinting and moving his head while looking for openings to land shots. Training at Syndicate MMA, he’s averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and is strong in the clinch, with solid knees and trips. Eight of Osbourne’s nine finishes have come in the first round, and he’s at his most dangerous early on in the fight.
Daniel Zellhuber vs. Esteban Ribovics
Lightweight Bout
Daniel Zellhuber: 15-1-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Esteban Ribovics: 13-1-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Zellhuber has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Lando Vannata (12-7-2), Francisco Prado (12-2-0), and Christos Giagos (20-12-0). He’s a lengthy striker with excellent boxing, speed, and power. He fights behind his jab, remaining patient and looking for openings to land damaging shots. Zellhuber has solid cardio and will remain technical throughout, pushing a consistent pace and often improving as the fight continues. Training at Xtreme Couture, he has excellent distance management and footwork, typically controlling the center of the cage for most of the fight. He won’t often initiate grappling exchanges, but he has a solid submission game and has defended 94% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Zellhuber is tied for the longest reach among active Lightweights and uses it well, constantly doing damage from range with long punches and kicks.
Ribovics has won four of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Terrance McKinney (15-7-0) and Kamuela Kirk (12-6-0). He’s a heavy-handed scrapper, coming out guns blazing and pushing a heavy pace from bell to bell. He’s constantly looking to close the distance and unload inside the pocket with brutal hooks. Ribovics tends to brawl more as the fight continues, often starting rounds fighting technically and taking more risks as they go on. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he has solid defensive grappling abilities and has proven capable of surviving in deep waters on the mat. Although he won’t typically initiate grappling scenarios, he has heavy ground and pound and submission skills, particularly shoulder locks. Ribovics is always dangerous, especially early on, with five of his seven knockouts coming in the first round.
#3 Brian Ortega vs. #13 Diego Lopes
Featherweight Bout
Brian Ortega: 16-3-0, 3 KO/TKO,O 8 Sub.
Diego Lopes: 25-6-0, 10 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.
Ortega has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Featherweight Yair Rodríguez (16-5-0), #11 ranked Lightweight Renato Moicano (19-5-1), and Chan Sung Jung (17-8-0). He’s a well-rounded fighter with technical striking and a slick submission game. He possesses power and speed in his hands, throwing everything tight and straight and never telegraphing his shots. He has a granite chin and excellent cardio, never going away or slowing down during the fight. Ortega advances lightning-fast on the ground, often chaining submissions together and easily transitioning between them. Training at Huntington Beach UTC, he has flashy attacks to back up his technical skill and can land flying knees and spinning attacks. He varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly and regularly landing brutal leg kicks. All of Ortega’s submissions have come via choke, and he is known to have one of the best triangle chokes in MMA.
Lopes has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #14 ranked Featherweight Dan Ige (18-8-0), Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0), and Pat Sabatini (18-5-0). An experienced grappler with impressive striking, he throws every shot with knockout intentions and constantly seeks a finish. He has one-shot KO power on the feet and has excellent accuracy and timing with his hands. Lopes has fast, powerful kicks and tends to get wild with his striking. Training at Lobo Gym MMA, he has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is dangerous anywhere the fight goes. He has a vicious submission game on top and bottom, constantly transitioning and looking for openings. Lopes has excellent ground and pound on top, which he’ll regularly use to create submission openings.
(C) Alexa Grasso vs. #1 Valentina Shevchenko
Women’s Flyweight Title Bout
Alexa Grasso: 16-3-1, 4 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Valentina Shevchenko: 23-4-1, 8 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Grasso has won four of her last five outings with one draw and has wins over #4 ranked Flyweight Maycee Barber (14-2-0), #9 ranked Flyweight Viviane Araujo (12-6-0), and her current opponent, Valentina Shevchenko. She is an excellent technical boxer who throws everything purposefully and in combination. She’s aggressive but not wild, staying technical and using timing and accuracy to damage her opponents. Grasso has a solid chin and is dangerous inside the pocket but is also defensively sound, having defended 58% of significant strikes attempted on her in the UFC. She holds a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is always dangerous on the ground. She’s constantly working, looking to posture up and land damage while threatening submissions. Grasso is a volume striker with excellent cardio, pushing a heavy pace throughout and landing, on average, 70 significant strikes in her last five fights.
Shevchenko has won three of her last five fights with one draw and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Bantamweight Julianna Peña (12-5-0), #7 ranked Flyweight Katlyn Cerminara (18-6-0), and #8 ranked Flyweight Jéssica Andrade (26-13-0). She holds black belts in Taekwondo and Judo and the rank of Master of Sports in Taekwondo, Judo, Muay Thai, Kickboxing, and Boxing. One of the best strikers in the sport, she always throws in combination and has excellent power and speed in her hands and kicks. Training at Tiger Muay Thai, Shevchenko does a great job of evenly varying her shots, attacking the head, body, and legs. She’s landed, on average, about four takedowns in her last five fights and has excellent top control, ground and pound, and chokes. She does everything with impressive speed and has excellent distance management, rarely staying in the pocket long enough to get hit. One of the most prolific champions in UFC history, she has the most fight time, title victories, takedowns landed, and knockout wins in the Women’s Flyweight division, along with many other records.
(C) Sean O’Malley vs. #1 Merab Dvalishvili
Bantamweight Title Bout
Sean O’Malley: 18-1-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Merab Dvalishvili: 17-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
O’Malley has won four of his last five outings with one no-contest and has UFC victories over #3 ranked Bantamweight Petr Yan (17-5-0), #7 ranked Bantamweight Marlon Vera (23-10-1), and #8 ranked Featherweight Aljamain Sterling (24-4-0). He’s a wild, flashy striker, throwing out a variety of spinning and flying kicks seemingly at will. Averaging over seven significant strikes landed per minute, he’s always pursuing a finish, holding knockout wins in half of his bouts in the promotion. Training at MMA Lab, O’Malley rarely engages in grappling exchanges, preferring to stay at range and pick his opponent apart with long punches and kicks. Beyond his arsenal of flashy attacks, his most dangerous weapons are his straight punches, often putting them at the end of combinations and regularly resulting in knockdowns or knockouts. O’Malley carries his power throughout the fight and can produce a finish anytime.
Dvalishvili is on a ten-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Bantamweight Petr Yan (16-5-0), #6 ranked Bantamweight Henry Cejudo (17-5-0), and #10 ranked Bantamweight José Aldo (32-8-0). He has monstrous cardio, relentlessly pursuing takedowns and landing big flurries on the feet. He’s incredibly durable, always willing to eat a shot to land one, and is constantly pressuring forward. Dvalishvili can easily wrestle for five rounds, averaging over six takedowns landed per fifteen minutes in the UFC. Training with the Serra-Longo Fight Team, his constant wrestling threat helps to mask his striking, often coming forward with powerful hooks and big combinations. He never stops moving on the feet or the ground, constantly looking for a better position or opening to land a shot. Always looking to overwhelm his opponents, Dvalishvili lands, on average, nearly twice as many significant strikes per minute than he absorbs.
Best Bets
Ronaldo Rodriguez by Submission: The main card opens with an excellent matchup of two exciting fighters. Both have very different styles and levels of experience, with this being Rodriguez’s second UFC appearance and Osbourne’s tenth. Despite this, I believe Rodriguez has the advantage both on the feet and the ground. Osbourne is an excellent striker but benefits from a slower-paced, more kickboxing-oriented style of fight. Rodriguez is constantly coming forward, throwing bombs, and is willing to eat punches, which will significantly disrupt Osbourne’s style. Osbourne has also proven particularly susceptible to submissions, with three submission losses in the UFC, two of which came in his last two fights. I don’t expect Rodriguez to shoot for takedowns immediately; I anticipate him wearing Osbourne down in striking exchanges before securing a takedown in the clinch or scoring a knockdown. Rodriguez can find submissions very quickly, and I expect him to do so once Osbourne is on the mat.
Alexa Grasso Moneyline: After two fantastic title bouts, we’ll possibly see this trilogy settled on Saturday. Grasso scored a decisive victory in their first meeting, but their second bout was extremely close, resulting in a draw. Although it was incredibly tough to call, after a second viewing, I believe Grasso won that fight, managing to steal the fifth round late in what I believe was a 2-2 fight heading into the fifth. Regardless, it’s impossible to say either woman has a significant advantage in any area; they match up evenly. At most, I’d give Grasso an edge in power and Shevchenko in speed. When things are that tough to judge inside the cage, you must look at the intangibles. Grasso is much earlier in her career and much less established as a fighter and champion. Not to say Shevchenko is complacent, but Grasso is the younger, hungrier fighter. Given this, it’s reasonable to believe Grasso is improving at a faster rate than Shevchenko at this point in her career. I believe Grasso will look even better than in their prior meetings, and I expect her to secure a victory and end their rivalry.
Sean O’Malley Moneyline: Easily the most challenging fight to call on the card; this is a classic matchup of striker vs. grappler. Their styles could not be more opposite, with O’Malley a lengthy, devastating striker and Dvalishvili a high-intensity wrestler. One of the most significant aspects of this fight is O'Malley's height and reach advantage. Dvalishvili constantly looks to close distance and get into the pocket, often using his striking to set up takedown attempts. Dvalishvili is a relatively non-technical striker, typically blitzing forward with a barrage of hooks, overhands, and elbows. Blitzing in on an opponent with the reach advantage of O’Malley is a very hazardous ordeal, let alone considering the knockout power O’Malley possesses. I can’t imagine Dvalishvili will be looking to strike for five rounds, and he will be in serious trouble if he can’t secure takedowns. I expect O’Malley to avoid the blitzes of Dvalishvili and piece him up from distance. Dvalishvili is exceptionally tough and won’t be easy to put away, but whether via finish or decision, I expect O’Malley to retain his title.
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
Another outstanding Fight Night card hits the UFC Apex this Saturday. Excellent matchups and outstanding prospects fill this card from top to bottom. In the co-main event, we’ll see a top-ten matchup in the Women’s Flyweight division when the heavy-hitting Jéssica Andrade takes on the rising prospect Natalia Silva. In the main event, we’ll witness perennial contender Gilbert Burns take on a dominant grappler in Sean Brady. I expect this card to produce plenty of memorable wars and incredible highlights. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz
Lightweight Bout
Trevor Peek: 9-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Yanal Ashmouz: 7-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Peek has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Erick Gonzalez (14-8-0) and Mohammed Yahya (12-5-0). He’s a wild striker who is always coming forward and looking for a knockout. He’ll regularly throw standing hammer fists and throws every punch with maximum power. Peek has heavy leg kicks and solid high kicks, although he usually does most of his damage with his hands. Training at Agoge Combatives, he’s averaging nearly two takedowns landed per 15 minutes in his promotional tenure and has great wrestling despite his brawling tendencies. He’ll constantly blitz forward and unload long combinations, mainly wide hooks and overhands. Six of Peek’s eight knockouts have come in round one, and he always comes out with guns blazing.
Ashmouz has won four of his last five bouts and has a UFC victory over Sam Patterson (12-2-1). He’s a well-rounded, heavy-handed scrapper who’s always looking to do damage. He’ll typically float along the outside of the cage, firing heavy kicks to the head, legs, and body before entering the pocket and unloading hooks. Ashmouz has significant power in his hands and remains technical throughout, pushing a consistent pace and never getting sloppy. Training at K-Dojo, he’s strong in the clinch and has solid trips and throws. In top position, he’ll constantly look to posture up and land ground and pound but won’t put himself in bad positions, staying patient and not forcing anything. Ashmouz has produced finishes in the first, second, and third rounds and is always dangerous.
#11 Matt Schnell vs. #15 Cody Durden
Flyweight Bout
Matt Schnell: 16-8-0, 2 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Cody Durden: 16-6-1, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Schnell has won one of his last five outings with one no-contest and has UFC victories over Sumudaerji (16-6-0), Tyson Nam (21-14-1), and Louis Smolka (17-9-0). He’s willing to engage the fight just about anywhere, using a technical boxing style on the feet and favoring wrestling in grappling exchanges. He has solid speed and power in his hands, often using his striking to set up his grappling. Schnell excels at capitalizing on his opponent’s mistakes and regularly grabs chokes when defending takedowns. Of his nine career submission wins, seven are chokes, all of which are either a guillotine or triangle. Training at Fortis MMA, he has a black belt in karate, so despite largely boxing when on the feet, he has a kicking game to back up his hands. With nine first-round finishes and four first-round losses, Schnell is extremely unpredictable early on.
Durden has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Jake Hadley (11-3-0), Charles Johnson (16-6-0), and Carlos Mota (8-2-0). He’s a dominant wrestler with great cardio and technical striking. He’s landing, on average, over four takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC and can land takedowns in the clinch and open space. Durden is always working in top position, advancing with impressive speed and constantly threatening with ground and pound and submission attempts. Training at American Top Team, he won’t get sloppy on the feet, throwing everything straight and tight while regularly mixing in body shots. He can do severe damage without much space, particularly with his elbows. He’s averaging over seven minutes of control time in his UFC victories and will always look to get the fight to the mat.
Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson
Featherweight Bout
Steve Garcia: 16-5-0, 13 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Kyle Nelson: 16-5-1, 6 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Garcia has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Chase Hooper (14-3-1), Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-12-0), and SeungWoo Choi (11-7-0). He’s a heavy-handed striker constantly coming forward and pursuing a knockout. He’s lengthy for the division and uses it well, throwing everything in combination and regularly mixing kicks into his combos. Garcia varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly, and constantly looks to enter the pocket and let his hands go. Training at Jackson-Wink MMA, he’s landing, on average, over one takedown per fifteen minutes in the UFC and has heavy ground and pound. He throws everything with power but has impressive speed and technicality, never loading up or telegraphing his shots. Nine of Garcia’s last ten fights did not see a third round, and he’s always pushing the pace.
Nelson has won three of his last five outings with one draw and has UFC victories over Bill Algeo (18-9-0), Fernando Padilla (16-5-0), and Blake Bilder (8-2-1). He’s a powerful striker who’s always coming forward and never slows down. He fights behind his jab, throwing it with plenty of power, and is efficient with his striking, rarely wasting energy. Nelson does an excellent job of mixing in kicks, constantly throwing leg kicks and sneaking head kicks at the end of combinations. He has solid footwork, regularly cutting off the cage before entering the pocket to unload looping hooks and overhands. Training at House of Champions, he’s landing, on average, over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes in the UFC and is very strong in the clinch. Nelson throws everything with power and excels at landing kicks and counter shots on his opponent while they’re attempting a strike.
#6 Jéssica Andrade vs. #8 Natalia Silva
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Jéssica Andrade: 26-12-0 10 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Natalia Silva: 17-5-1, 5 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Andrade has won two of her last five fights and has UFC victories over #5 ranked Flyweight Rose Namajunas (14-6-0), #5 ranked Strawweight Amanda Lemos (14-4-1), and #6 ranked Strawweight Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2). A former Strawweight champion, she has fought in all three women’s weight classes and is currently ranked in two. A true powerhouse, she’s an explosive striker with some of the heaviest hands in women’s MMA. Training at Parana Vale Tudo, Andrade is always pressuring forward and throwing combinations, constantly pursuing a finish. She has the speed to match her power and throws every shot accurately and purposefully. She’s also an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in BJJ, averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, and has devastating ground and pound. Andrade has the most wins, bouts, and post-fight bonuses in UFC Women’s history and is never in a boring fight.
Silva is on an eleven-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #9 ranked Viviane Araújo (12-6-0), #14 ranked Jasmine Jasudavicius (11-3-0), and Tereza Bleda (7-1-0). She is a fantastic striker with lightning-fast kicks and excellent footwork. She’s constantly feinting with her hips and switching stances, making her wildly unpredictable. Silva is highly accurate and throws every shot with power and purpose, usually starting or ending combinations with kicks. Training with Team Borracha, she does an excellent job of holding the center, constantly moving in and out of the pocket without absorbing damage. She’s willing to grapple but tends to keep it on the feet, having defended 91% of takedowns attempted on her in the UFC. Silva pushes a fast pace across the entire fight but will remain technical throughout.
#6 Gilbert Burns vs. #8 Sean Brady
Welterweight Bout
Gilbert Burns: 22-7-0, 6 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Sean Brady: 16-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Burns has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #9 ranked Welterweight Stephen Thompson (17-7-1), #15 ranked Welterweight Neil Magny (29-13-0), and Jorge Masvidal (35-17-0). He’s a decorated grappler with serious power in his hands and is always pursuing a finish. He’s always moving on his feet, constantly looking to close the distance, dip his head, and unleash brutal overhands. Burns has explosive takedowns, excellent top control, and a fantastic submission game. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he has a granite chin and pushes a consistent pace across all 15 minutes. He favors power to volume, throwing everything with knockout intentions, and is always willing to brawl inside the pocket. Burns is in his tenth year in the promotion and is dangerous wherever the fight goes.
Brady has won four of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0), Jake Matthews (20-7-0), and Michael Chiesa (19-7-0). He is an excellent grappler, averaging over three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes in the UFC, and has controlled nearly every opponent he’s faced. Training at Renzo Gracie Philly, he advances incredibly quickly on the ground and remains patient on top, using smothering top control to find submission openings. Four of Brady’s five submission wins have come via some form of choke, so the fight is over if he can get a hold of his opponent’s neck. He utilizes a boxing style on the feet, not moving his feet much but throwing constant feints with his hands. While he prefers to take the fight to the mat, he won’t get desperate for takedowns and is willing to engage on the feet. Most of Brady’s finishes have come after round one, usually heating up as the fight continues.
Best Bets
Steve Garcia by KO/TKO: This is likely the most underrated matchup on the main card; I expect fireworks in this bout. While both fighters are perpetually coming forward and pushing the pace, Nelson is the more cautious, while Garcia is constantly throwing caution to the wind. While taking constant risks isn’t always the best game plan, it benefits Garcia in this matchup. Garcia has the edge in both power and reach, and I expect him to get on the front foot early, regularly blitzing into the pocket with big combinations. If he can keep Nelson moving back, it significantly neutralizes his offense and the takedown threat, allowing Garcia to let his hands go. I expect Garcia to earn yet another highlight reel knockout.
Natalia Silva by Decision: Another intriguing matchup; this is a true test of speed vs. power. While Silva is quick, flashy, and technical, Andrade uses power and aggression to get the job done. While Andrade has turned things around in her last two fights, I think this is an excellent matchup for Silva. Andrade can often be aggressive to a fault, throwing constant overhands and hooks while rushing forward. Silva is far too technical to get drawn into a sloppy brawl, where Andrade does her best work. I expect Silva to remain elusive and avoid the early barrages from Andrade, wear her down with kicks and combos, and earn an impressive victory.
Burns vs. Brady Not to Go The Distance: This is a fascinating matchup with significant implications for the weight class. The winner of this bout will put themselves into the title conversation and much closer to the belt. While both are well-rounded fighters, they’re both world-class grapplers, and that’s what I’m most intrigued about. Neither man has ever been submitted in their professional career, typically holding the grappling advantage in their matchups. While Brady doesn’t hold the same brawling reputation Burns does, often, when two dominant grapplers meet in the octagon, they cancel out on the ground and go to war on the feet. Whether that’s the outcome or we’re treated to a grappling showcase, I’d be surprised to see the judges involved in this fight. Both men push a heavy pace and are looking to earn a highlight victory and move up the rankings, so one way or another, someone is going to sleep on Saturday night.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho Preview
The UFC returns to its headquarters at the APEX with another outstanding Fight Night card. There’s excellent fights throughout, including two explosive Ultimate Fighter Finale bouts. In the co-main event, we’ll see established veteran Angela Hill take on rising prospect Tabatha Ricci. In the main event, we’ll witness a fight with title implications when perennial contender Jared Cannonier faces off against the red-hot Caio Borralho. I expect plenty of highlights, finishes, and wild wars from top to bottom. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Middleweight Bout
Edmen Shahbazyan: 13-4-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Gerald Meerschaert: 36-17-0, 6 KO/TKO, 28 Sub.
Shahbazyan has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Brad Tavares (20-10-0), Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0), and AJ Dobson (7-3-0). He’s a technical kickboxer with significant power and great footwork. He fights behind his jab, favors power to volume, and constantly adds kicks to the end of combinations. He has excellent footwork and distance management and can go in and out of the pocket without absorbing much damage. Shahbazyan has solid offensive grappling, landing, on average, over two takedowns per fifteen minutes, and has brutal ground and pound. Training at Xtreme Couture, he’s always throwing in combination, keeping his opponent on the back foot and seeking a knockout. Eleven of Shahbazyan’s twelve finishes have come in the first round, and he’s at his best early on in the fight.
Meerschaert has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Bruno Silva (23-11-0), Dustin Stoltzfus (15-6-0), and Makhmud Muradov (26-8-0). He’s a talented grappler with excellent wrestling and submissions. He has solid timing on his takedowns and remains patient in top position, never putting himself in a bad spot. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Meerschaert has good head movement, remains technical at all times, and mixes kicks into combinations, never telegraphing them. His grappling often sets up his striking, with his opponent focused on defending takedowns instead of strikes. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed and over one submission attempted per fifteen minutes. With 24 of his 28 submissions coming via choke, he’s extremely dangerous if he can find his opponent's neck.
#12 Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales
Welterweight Bout
Neil Magny: 29-12-0, 8 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Michael Morales: 16-0-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Magny has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Welterweight Geoff Neal (15-6-0), Robbie Lawler (30-16-0), and Mike Malott (10-2-1). He is in his 11th year in the promotion, and his experience shows in the cage, as he’s seemingly comfortable everywhere. He’s tall for the division and uses it well, staying at distance on the feet and picking his opponents apart with his punches. Magny’s best weapon is his cardio; he can and has gone 25 minutes and always pushes a heavy pace, constantly touching up his opponents or working for takedowns. Training at Elevation Fight Team, he is excellent at using his length inside the clinch, often landing knees and elbows and scoring takedowns. Averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, his most straightforward path to victory is to take it to the mat, which he usually does. Magny stays technical across the entire fight, never overexerting himself or putting himself in significant danger.
Morales comes into this fight undefeated, with UFC victories over Jake Matthews (20-7-0), Max Griffin (20-10-0), and Trevin Giles (16-6-0). He’s a technical kickboxer who remains patient and waits for openings to damage his opponent. He throws everything in combination, remaining technical throughout and always setting up his attacks with his jab. Morales often blitzes forward to throw long, devastating hooks and straights before quickly returning to range. Training at Entram Gym, he’s a well-rounded grappler, averaging over a takedown landed per fifteen minutes, and has defended 91% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He’s shown great calmness when put in tough spots, able to survive on his back and return the fight to where he’s most comfortable. Morales has outstruck all his UFC opponents, landing, on average, about 66 significant strikes per fight.
Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos
TUF Featherweight Finale Bout
Kaan Ofli: 11-2-1, 1 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Mairon Santos: 14-1-0, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Ofli is on a nine-fight win streak and secured his spot in the TUF Finale with a first-round submission of Roedie Roets (7-2-0). He’s a powerful grappler with excellent top control and solid power in his hands. He varies his attacks well on the feet, throwing to the head and body while mixing leg kicks into combinations. Ofli is dangerous inside the pocket, regularly throwing brutal knees and elbows. He uses his striking to set up his grappling, often striking into the clinch or a takedown shot. Training at Australian Top Team, he’s capable of powerful slams, has heavy top pressure, and is always working on top, looking to posture up or secure submissions. Ofli is dangerous on top and off his back, capable of finding submissions from anywhere, especially chokes.
Santos has won four of his last five fights and defeated Guillermo Torres (7-2-0) via unanimous decision to earn his spot in the TUF Finale. He’s a dangerous striker with excellent power and footwork. He’s always moving, fighting behind his jab, and throwing everything in combination while looking to control the center. Santos does a great job varying his shots, attacking the head, body, and legs evenly, and regularly mixing kicks into combinations. Training at Xtreme Couture, he’s dangerous at range and in the pocket, able to land significant damage from anywhere. He has solid takedown defense and won’t accept position on his back, always working hard to get the fight back to the feet. Santos heats up as the fight continues and carries his power across all fifteen minutes, always remaining dangerous.
Robert Valentin vs. Ryan Loder
TUF Middleweight Finale Bout
Robert Valentin: 11-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Ryan Loder: 7-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Valentin has won four of his last five bouts with one draw and earned his spot in the TUF Finale with a first-round submission of Paddy McCorry (4-2-0). He’s a well-rounded, explosive fighter who always pushes the action. He comes out guns blazing, constantly blitzing forward to unload looping hooks and brutal overhands. Valentin holds the center well, forcing his opponent to the outside while supplying steady shots up the middle, mainly front kicks. Training at Fight Move Academy, he’s strong in the clinch and has excellent trips and throws, regularly looking to land head-and-arm throws. He has heavy top pressure, constantly throwing elbows and looking for submissions while wearing down his opponent. He’s at his most dangerous early on, with seven of his ten finishes coming in round one.
Loder has won four of his last five outings and earned a unanimous decision over Omran Chaaban (6-2-0) to secure his spot in the TUF Finale. He’s a dominant grappler with heavy hands and a dangerous submission game. He’s patient and technical on the feet, looking for openings before throwing straight, tight shots. Loder remains composed throughout, never getting wild or telegraphing his attacks or takedowns. Training with MMAGold Fight Team, he’s an explosive wrestler, often shooting blast double legs or chaining together takedowns in the clinch. He advances quickly in top position, constantly looking to posture to land elbows or pursue submissions. Loder improves the longer the fight goes, increasing the pace and always seeking a finish.
#9 Angela Hill vs. #11 Tabatha Ricci
Women’s Strawweight Bout
Angela Hill: 17-13-0, 5 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Tabatha Ricci: 10-2-0, 1 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Hill has won four of her last five outings and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Strawweight Loopy Godínez (12-5-0), #12 ranked Strawweight Luana Pinheiro (11-3-0), and Ariane Carnelosi (15-3-0). She is one of the most experienced and active veterans on the roster, and there’s nearly no spot in a fight she hasn’t been in. A former kickboxer with a professional record of 16-0, she’s an excellent technical striker with a gritty Muay Thai style. Hill pushes a heavy pace, landing, on average, about 87 significant strikes in her last five fights. Training at Alliance MMA, she’s exceptionally durable, always willing to eat a shot to land one, and constantly pressuring forward. She’s willing to grapple, possessing solid wrestling both offensively and defensively. Hill has never been knocked out in her career and heats up as the fight continues.
Ricci has won four of her last five fights and has UFC victories over #13 ranked Strawweight Gillian Robertson (14-8-0), Tecia Pennington (13-7-0), and Polyana Viana (13-7-0). She’s a speedy, well-rounded scrapper who holds black belts in Judo and BJJ. She’s in perpetual motion on the feet, never staying in one spot for long, all while constantly peppering her opponents with shots. Ricci throws everything in combination, has great distance management and head movement, and regularly mixes kicks into combinations, particularly to the legs. She’s averaging about three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has excellent timing, able to secure takedowns in open space and the clinch. Training at Paragon BJJ, she’s always working in top position, constantly advancing while staying stafe and not putting herself in dangerous positions. Ricci has landed at least one takedown in all her UFC victories and always looks to take the fight to the mat.
#5 Jared Cannonier vs. #12 Caio Borralho
Middleweight Bout
Jared Cannonier: 17-7-0, 10 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Caio Borralho: 16-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Cannonier has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Middleweight Sean Strickland (29-6-0), #6 ranked Middleweight Marvin Vettori (19-7-1), and #9 ranked Middleweight Jack Hermansson (24-8-0). He has fought at Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight in his promotional tenure and carries that Heavyweight power at 185 pounds. He throws everything with fight-ending intentions, constantly pressuring forward and always willing to eat a shot to land one. Cannonier has excellent footwork and regularly switches stances, typically opening up his combinations with his jab. Training at MMA LAB, Cannonier is fantastic at moving in and out of the pocket and usually won’t stay at range for long, often throwing damaging leg kicks when outside of the pocket. What he lacks in volume, he makes up for in power, and his pace increases as the fight continues. Cannonier is unlikely to take the fight to the mat but can land devastating ground and pound if he gets top position.
Borralho is undefeated since 2015 and has UFC wins over Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-9-0), Makhmud Muradov (26-8-0), and Abus Magomedov (26-6-1). He is a well-rounded fighter with technical striking and a slick submission game. He’s constantly moving on the feet and is highly elusive, allowing him to outstrike five of the six opponents he’s faced in the promotion. Training with the Fighting Nerds, Borralho looks to land kicks at range before entering the pocket to land powerful hooks. On the mat, he has excellent top pressure, great sweeps, and constantly pursues a finish. He’s averaging about two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is very explosive, often landing takedowns in open space. Borralho has excellent cardio and pushes a heavy pace throughout the fight, making him dangerous at all times.
Best Bets
Mairon Santos Moneyline: The first of two Ultimate Fighter Finale bouts, this is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, with Ofli, the grappler, and Santos, the striker. As is usually the case in these matchups, it comes down to who can do their specialty the best. While Ofli is likely the more well-rounded of the two, I believe Santos’ advantage on the feet is more significant than Ofli’s advantage on the mat. Santos has shown solid takedown defense and a tendency to improve as the fight continues, and he possesses an 8-inch reach advantage. Ofli isn’t an exceptionally diverse striker, doing most of his work inside the pocket with his hands, constantly looking to close the distance. If Ofli doesn’t get inside the pocket, his striking and grappling offense will be significantly stifled. I expect Santos to weather an early storm, keep the fight standing, and ultimately earn his UFC contract with a victory.
Robert Valentin Moneyline: The second Ultimate Fighter finale bout is a highly anticipated one. A bit less straightforward than our other Finale fight, Valentin is a well-rounded marauder, while Loder is a dominant wrestler. While Loder has a very obvious route to victory, Valentin has various ways to win this fight, and ultimately, that’s the difference maker. Although Loder has solid power in his hands, Valentin has a considerably more advanced striking style. Considering Valentin’s tendency to throw shots up the middle, Loder will likely struggle to find takedown openings. Even if Loder does land a takedown, Valentin is solid on the mats and fully capable of reversing position or getting the fight back to the feet. I expect Valentin to weather the wrestling of Loder, keep the fight standing, and batter his opponent on the feet to secure his UFC contract.
Cannonier vs. Borralho to Not Go the Distance: While I don’t love not picking a straight-up winner on the main event, this one is too close to call. While Borralho has a definite speed and grappling advantage, he has also proved hittable, and Cannonier only needs one clean shot to end your night. Borralho has never faced someone with the power or pedigree of Cannonier but has exclusively fought high-level competition in the UFC and is by no means inexperienced. Both have distinct advantages and disadvantages in this matchup; frankly, it’s great matchmaking from the UFC. Although I’m unsure who will leave with a victory, I am confident the judges won’t decide it. Both are incredibly dangerous and constantly pushing a heavy pace, with the majority of both of their wins coming via finish. Regardless of who wins this bout, I expect a barn-burner and a highlight finish for the victor.
UFC 305 Preview
The UFC hits Perth, Australia, with a fantastic pay-per-view card. From top to bottom, this card is stacked with excellent matchups and exciting fighters, all looking to add to their highlight reels. In the co-main event, we’ll see a matchup with Flyweight title implications when two top-tier fighters collide in Kai Kara-France and Steve Urceg. In the main event, we’ll see the long-awaited matchup between the former champion, Israel Adesanya, and his rival and current title-holder, Dricus Du Plessis. I expect nonstop action from this card, and it should be an excellent night of fights. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
Welterweight Bout
Li Jingliang: 19-8-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Carlos Prates: 19-6-0, 14 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Li has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8-0), Dhiego Lima (17-9-0), and Muslim Salikhov (20-5-0). He’s an elusive striker with one-shot knockout power. He has been tough to hit in his promotional tenure, having defended 57% of significant strikes attempted on him. While Li doesn’t put out a ton of volume in terms of strikes, he makes up for it in accuracy and power, able to end the fight seemingly from anywhere at any time. He’s patient on the feet, often throwing leg kicks at range while looking for openings to land devastating power shots. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he’s averaging over one takedown landed per fight and is dangerous on the mat, possessing a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Li is most dangerous when he’s able to cut off the cage and get into the pocket, throwing every punch with fight-ending intentions.
Prates is on a nine-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Trevin Giles (16-6-0) and Charles Radtke (9-4-0). He’s a destructive, technical striker with serious power in his hands. He favors power to volume, throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions, and can produce a flash knockout at any time. Prates varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly and constantly looking to land knees to the body. Training with Fighting Nerds, he has excellent distance management and is continuously pressuring forward but remains patient and composed, never telegraphing his attacks. He’s unlikely to take the fight to the mat but has solid takedown defense, capable of defending shots both in open space and against the cage. Prates has only gone to a decision twice since 2013 and always pushes a heavy pace.
#10 Tai Tuivasa vs. #12 Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Heavyweight Bout
Tai Tuivasa: 15-7-0, 14 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik: 14-5-0, 13 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Tuivasa has won one of his last five bouts and holds UFC victories over #11 ranked Heavyweight Derrick Lewis (28-12-0), Andrei Arlovski (34-24-0), and Stefan Struve (33-13-0). He is the true embodiment of a brawler, always willing to eat a shot to land one and slug it out in the pocket. He’s more technical than he often appears, staying patient and fighting behind his jab before letting go of some massive right hands. Tuivasa has solid head movement and good distance management but won’t throw much at range before closing the distance. Training at Lions High Performance Centre, he has heavy leg kicks and one-shot knockout power, and he can finish the fight from anywhere. He’s at his most dangerous early, with 12 of his fourteen KOs coming in round one, only seeing two decisions in his pro career. Tuivasa can land immense damage without much space, particularly elbows and knees.
Rozenstruik has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Shamil Gaziev (13-1-0), Augusto Sakai (16-6-1), and Alistair Overeem (47-19-0). He is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 76-8, with 64 wins by knockout. Nine of his thirteen career knockouts have come in the first round, so he’s at his most dangerous early on. Training at American Top Team, Rozenstruik is an excellent counter-striker who looks to draw his opponent into the pocket so he can land big shots with his right hand. He has one-shot KO power but can string together long combinations if he lets his hands go. He has solid takedown defense and has defended 75% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC, always preferring to keep it standing. Rozenstruik has excellent hand speed for a Heavyweight, throws everything with power, and often mixes kicks into the end of combinations.
#5 Mateusz Gamrot vs. #11 Dan Hooker
Lightweight Bout
Mateusz Gamrot: 24-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Dan Hooker: 23-12-0, 11 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Gamrot has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Lightweight Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0), #8 ranked Lightweight Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0), and #13 ranked Lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (32-16-0). He is an incredibly well-rounded fighter and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. He’s constantly moving, staying safe at range, remaining patient, and picking his shots. Gamrot favors power to volume, throwing every shot to finish his opponent. Training at American Top Team, he is averaging over five takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has defended 90% of takedowns attempted on him. He is a tenacious wrestler, refusing to give up on takedowns and never staying still on the ground, whether on top or bottom. A former KSW champion, “Gamer” has excellent cardio and can push a consistent pace across fifteen minutes.
Hooker has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #6 ranked Welterweight Gilbert Burns (22-7-0), #14 ranked Lightweight Jalin Turner (14-8-0), and Jim Miller (37-18-0). He’s an excellent striker with a kickboxing background, holding a professional kickboxing record of 13-1. He’s at his best when he’s controlling the center of the cage and pressuring forward, unloading combinations to the head and body. Hooker is a devastating clinch striker, possessing some of the most brutal knees in the UFC and great dirty boxing. Training at City Kickboxing, he varies his strikes very well, attacking the head and body evenly and constantly throwing from different angles. He has solid takedown defense, an underrated submission game, and is willing to grapple, averaging just under one takedown landed per fifteen minutes. Hooker always pushes a heavy pace, landing, on average, over 89 significant strikes in his last five wins.
#4 Kai Kara-France vs. #7 Steve Erceg
Flyweight Bout
Kai Kara-France: 24-11-0, 11 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Steve Erceg: 12-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Kara-France has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Askar Askarov (15-1-1), Rogerio Bontorin (17-5-0), and Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0). He’s a speedy, explosive striker who’s always looking to push the action. He’s in perpetual motion, never staying in one spot for long and always keeping his head off the centerline. Kara-France throws every shot with power, regularly dipping his head and blitzing forward to unload looping hooks and overhands. He won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges but has excellent balance and takedown defense and has proven tough to finish on the mat. He’s always willing to eat a shot to land one, regularly hanging in the pocket to exchange blows. Kara-France has been awarded five bonuses in eleven UFC fights and always leaves everything inside the cage.
Erceg has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #11 ranked Flyweight Matt Schnell (16-8-0), David Dvorak (20-6-0), and Alessandro Costa (14-4-0). He’s extremely well-rounded, possessing technical striking and a dangerous submission game. He’s constantly pressuring forward, keeping his head off the centerline, and always remaining technical, never telegraphing his shots. Erceg has excellent counterstriking and hides his kicks well, regularly landing brutal leg kicks. Training at Wilkes Martial Arts, he’s averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and can find submissions with incredible speed. With all six submission wins coming via choke, he’ll constantly search for his opponent’s neck on the ground. Erceg has solid cardio and pushes a consistent pace throughout, never getting sloppy or putting himself in bad spots.
(C) Dricus Du Plessis vs. #2 Israel Adesanya
Middleweight Title Bout
Dricus Du Plessis: 21-2-0, 9 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Israel Adesanya: 24-3-0, 16 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Du Plessis is on a nine-fight win streak and has UFC victories coming over #1 ranked Middleweight Sean Strickland (29-6-0), #3 ranked Middleweight Robert Whittaker (27-7-0), and Derek Brunson (24-9-0). He utilizes a kickboxing style on the feet, regularly throwing a barrage of kicks from distance, especially to the legs. He has one-shot knockout power, with many of his knockouts seemingly coming from nowhere. Training at CIT Performance Institute, Du Plessis has power in both hands and will often blitz forward to throw big combinations. He throws everything with power and never telegraphs his shots, making him dangerous at all times. He frequently mixes grappling into his attacks, averaging three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes. When on top, Du Plessis stays patient and won’t force anything, focusing on getting to advantageous positions before throwing ground and pound.
Adesanya has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #3 ranked Middleweight Robert Whittaker (27-7-0), #5 ranked Middleweight Jared Cannonier (17-7-0), and #6 ranked Middleweight Marvin Vettori (19-7-1). He is one of the best technical strikers in MMA and a former professional kickboxer with a record of 75-5 with 29 wins by knockout. Throwing with both power and volume, he’s landed, on average, about 83 significant strikes in his last five fights. Adesanya is highly elusive, rarely taking substantial damage, and is constantly moving and keeping his head off the centerline. Training at City Kickboxing, he has excellent footwork and is comfortable at range and inside the pocket, able to land damage from anywhere. He has a tremendous variety of kicks and does a great job of varying his attacks, always making his strikes highly unpredictable. Adesanya’s last eleven fights have been for gold, making him not only prepared for five rounds but highly comfortable in the spotlight.
Best Bets
Mateusz Gamrot by Decision: Although the odds suggest otherwise, this is a very close matchup. While Gamrot has the ground advantage and Hooker the striking advantage, both are more well-rounded than they’re often given credit for. Gamrot has solid, technical striking, while Hooker has excellent takedown defense and a slick submission game. Given this, I expect this to be a very closely contested matchup. Ultimately, though, I believe Gamrot's tenacity will be the differencemaker. Although I expect him to have to work to get the fight to the mat, I don’t expect him to be deterred by the defensive grappling of Hooker. Gamrot has taken down every single one of his UFC opponents, many with much more outstanding grappling pedigrees than Hooker. I expect Gamrot to work his wrestling throughout, secure takedowns and control time, and earn his fourth consecutive win.
Kara-France vs. Erceg to Go the Distance: This is easily one of the most exciting matchups on the card, yet simultaneously one of the least talked about. The stakes are high, as either would instantly re-enter title contention with a win. Both push a heavy pace and are always coming forward, and that clash of styles typically leads to a war. I expect this fight to primarily play out on the feet; Erceg is the likelier of the two to initiate grappling, but Kara-France has excellent takedown defense, so I don’t anticipate much time spent on the mat. Both have very solid chins and are willing to eat a shot to land one, so hopefully, we get a full-on slugfest. Regardless of how the fight plays out, both are very durable, and I expect them to reach the scorecards.
Israel Adesanya Moneyline: This is a matchup of two dangerous strikers with very different styles. While Adesanya is more of a precise sniper, Du Plessis is a marauder, constantly looking to charge forward and throw bombs. One of the most critical factors in this matchup is the pace at which the fight plays out. While Du Plessis proved he could go five rounds, he benefits from a faster-paced, shorter-length fight. Adesanya has proven to be a master of controlling pace and distance, slowing down pressure-based fighters like Jared Cannonier and Marvin Vettori and forcing them to fight Adesanya’s fight. Adesanya also tends to be risk-averse, which hasn’t always worked in his favor but is a significant issue for Du Plessis. One of Du Plessis’ best skills is capitalizing on his opponent’s mistakes, regularly landing heavy counterstrikes or takedowns when his opponent telegraphs or overextends. With Adesanya remaining technical and avoiding significant risks, Du Plessis will likely have to fight at a slower pace and be unable to find the big openings he typically would. I expect Adesanya to control the pace and distance, keep the fight standing, and ultimately earn the victory and the title.
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac
The UFC returns to its headquarters at the UFC Apex with an excellent Fight Night card. Filled with rising stars, prospects, and established veterans, there’s excellent matchups from top to bottom. In the co-main event, two well-rounded scrappers go toe-to-toe when Damon Jackson takes on Chepe Mariscal. In the main event, we’ll see a rematch of two powerful Heavyweights, Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac. With multiple late notice replacements and weight misses, this card has already proven unpredictable. Lets take a look at the fights on the main card.
Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou
Bantamweight Bout
Toshiomi Kazama: 10-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Charalampos Grigoriou: 8-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Kazama has won two of his last five fights and is looking for his first UFC victory. He’s a creative grappler with a dangerous submission game. He won’t waste much time at range, regularly closing the distance with his striking to enter the clinch. He has excellent clinch takedowns and will constantly work to get the fight to the mat, even willing to pull guard. Kazama is efficient in top position and is always looking to advance and find a submission. Training at Wajutsu Keishukai, he never accepts position on top or his back and is very tough to hold down, regularly finding sweeps or throwing up leg locks. He doesn’t force anything or put himself in dangerous positions, always choosing position over submission. Kazama has found the majority of his finishes in the first round and is at his most dangerous early on.
Grigoriou has won four of his last five bouts and is looking for his first UFC victory. A dominant grappler with heavy hands, he’s constantly pursuing a finish. He comes out guns blazing, continually pressuring forward and blitzing into the pocket to unload combinations. Grigoriou has one-shot knockout power in his hands and can produce flash finishes. He has excellent takedowns and heavy top pressure, typically looking to grind on and wear out his opponents. Training at Serra-Longo Fight Team, he has excellent scrambles and reversals and remains patient in top position until he can posture up and land ground and pound. Grigoriou pushes a heavy pace from the opening bell and leaves everything in the cage, with five of his last six fights not seeing the scorecards.
#12 Yana Santos vs. #14 Chelsea Chandler
Women’s Bantamweight Bout
Yana Santos: 14-8-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Chelsea Chandler: 6-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Santos has won two of her last five outings and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Bantamweight Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0), Julija Stoliarenko (11-9-2), and Lina Lansberg (10-8-0). She’s a well-rounded fighter with a black belt in Taekwondo and solid wrestling. She’s always moving, using her footwork and feints to find openings to land offense. Santos regularly mixes kicks into her combinations and varies her shots well, attacking the head, body, and legs equally. Training at American Top Team, she’s averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and constantly looks to clinch up and land strikes. She’s very strong in the clinch, regularly grinding her opponents out against the cage while landing a barrage of knees and elbows. Santos is highly experienced and has great cardio, pushing a consistent pace throughout and never getting sloppy.
Chandler has won four of her last five fights and has UFC victories over Josiane Nunes (10-2-0) and Julija Stoliarenko (11-9-2). A powerful wrestler, she’s constantly looking to close distance and get the fight to the mat. She fights behind her jab, throws everything in combination, and is always willing to eat a shot to land one. Chandler tends to headhunt on her feet, rarely throwing kicks and unloading looping hooks inside the pocket. She’s averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and will constantly look to land ground and pound from top position. Training at Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, she transitions quickly on top, moving efficiently from position to position without putting herself in danger. Chandler is very powerful, capable of slam takedowns, and tough to get out from under on the ground.
Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le
Bantamweight Bout
Chris Gutierrez: 20-6-2, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Quang Le: 8-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Gutierrez has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Frankie Edgar (23-11-1), Alatengheili (17-9-2), and Batgerel Danaa (12-5-0). He’s a shifty, technical striker with excellent distance management. He has powerful kicks and excellent hand speed, regularly throwing plenty of leg kicks before moving in to let his hands go. Gutierrez has landed, on average, 65 significant strikes in his last five fights, putting out solid volume while remaining technical and fighting behind his jab. He tends to float around the outside, never favoring one particular weapon and constantly switching stances. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, he won’t often initiate grappling exchanges but has shown some solid takedown defense, having defended 69% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Gutierrez has multiple finishes via leg kick and will constantly look to limit his opponent’s mobility.
Le is undefeated and making his UFC debut. He’s a well-rounded scrapper with technical striking and a dangerous submission game. He’ll constantly throw kicks with his lead leg, especially to the head, mixing them into punch combinations without telegraphing them. Le is accurate on the feet, fighting behind his jab and throwing his shots tight and straight, never loading up or getting wild. His striking sets up his grappling, often engaging on the feet for extended periods before suddenly shooting takedowns. Training at The Academy MN, he transitions very quickly on the mat, typically looking to take his opponent’s back, and often chains together submission attempts. Le is unpredictable, able to produce flash-knockouts or grapple for a complete three rounds, and is comfortable anywhere the fight goes.
Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
Welterweight Bout
Danny Barlow: 8-0-0, 5 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Nikolay Veretennikov: 12-4-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Barlow is undefeated and has a UFC victory over Josh Quinlan (6-3-0). A highly accurate striker with impressive speed and power, he’s always pursuing a knockout. He’s a lengthy fighter and uses it well, typically holding the center and picking his opponents apart with long straights and kicks. He constantly looks to set up flying knees, attempting them regularly throughout his fights. Barlow throws every shot with power and remains patient, continually looking for openings to do damage. Training at Law School MMA, he has solid cardio, carrying his power and speed across all three rounds and always remaining technical. He fights behind his jab, constantly popping it out before following up with brutal combinations. Barlow is unlikely to take the fight to the mat but has shown solid takedown defense and has an excellent sprawl.
Veretennikov has won four of his last five outings and is making his UFC debut. He’s a bruising striker who’s constantly looking to land bombs. He’s always coming forward, tending to headhunt, and comes out guns blazing from the opening bell. Veretennikov has excellent clinch striking and can land severe damage without much space, especially with his elbows and knees. Training at Kings MMA, he has solid clinch takedowns and throws and will constantly look to posture up and land ground and pound when in top position. He throws every shot with knockout intentions, always willing to hang in the pocket to unload looping hooks. Veretennikov pushes a heavy pace and carries his power throughout the fight, able to produce knockouts seemingly out of nowhere.
Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal
Featherweight Bout
Damon Jackson: 23-6-1, 4 KO/TKO, 15 Sub.
Chepe Mariscal: 16-6-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Jackson has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Pat Sabatini (18-5-0), Charles Rosa (16-8-0), and Alexander Hernandez (14-8-0). He’s a dangerous grappler with excellent chokes and solid hands. He pushes a heavy pace from the opening bell, always moving and throwing every shot straight and tight. Jackson regularly dips his head and enters the pocket, throwing heavy straights. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed per fight and is a powerful wrestler capable of impressive slams. Training at Fortis MMA, he advances position quickly on the ground and has excellent control. Jackson has nine wins via rear naked choke and is constantly hunting for his opponent’s neck.
Mariscal is on a six-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Jack Jenkins (12-3-0), Trevor Peek (9-2-0), and Morgan Charrière (19-10-1). He’s a well-rounded brawler constantly looking to close the distance and land damage. He throws every shot with power, regularly blitzing forward and unloading hooks and overhands. Mariscal has excellent control and striking in the clinch, regularly blasting his opponent with knees and uppercuts. He has great throws and takedowns but seems more focused on landing damage than controlling his opponent on the mat. Training at Elevation Fight Team, he heats up as the fight continues, increasing his pace and intensity. Despite having only three UFC fights, he is well-experienced and fought a bevy of UFC-level competition before joining the promotion.
#8 Marcin Tybura vs. #9 Serghei Spivac
Heavyweight Bout
Marcin Tybura: 25-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Serghei Spivac: 16-4-0, 7 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Tybura has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa (15-7-0), #13 ranked Heavyweight Alexandr Romanov (17-3-0), and his current opponent, Serghei Spivac. He is a dominant wrestler willing to engage on the feet, possessing classic heavyweight KO power and great takedowns. He’ll throw a solid variety of kicks at range before moving in to throw powerful hooks in the pocket. Tybura is at his best when he’s coming forward and pressuring his opponent, but his most straightforward path to victory is through his grappling. He has an explosive takedown game, often slamming his opponent down and advancing quickly in top position. Training at Ankos MMA, he’ll constantly look to posture up and do damage, using heavy top control to land big shots. Tybura has the cardio to go 15 minutes, whether grappling or striking, and seems comfortable wherever the fight goes.
Spivac has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #11 ranked Heavyweight Derrick Lewis (28-12-0), Aleksei Oleinik (61-17-1), and Carlos Felipe (12-4-0). He’s a powerful wrestler with brutal ground and pound and excellent top control. He’ll usually shoot in early, more often than not earning the takedown, having landed at least three takedowns in all his UFC wins but one. Spivac rarely leaves fights up to the judges, with ten first-round finishes in his career and eight of his eleven bouts in the promotion not going the distance. Training with the Polar Bear Team, he has a diverse submission game but will look to land ground and pound before chasing a submission. He’s always looking to land damage on the ground but won’t force anything, being more than willing to hold half guard and work from there. While Spivac usually won’t spend much time on the feet, he has heavy hands and will throw right overhands until closing the distance and pursuing takedowns.
Best Bets
Yana Santos Moneyline: A classic matchup of veteran vs. newcomer, this is an intriguing bout. Both have very different styles, with Santos utilizing technical kickboxing while Chandler is more of a brawling wrestler. Despite the differences in styles, Santos is much more experienced and skilled than Chandler in virtually every facet. Although young and constantly improving, Chandler has shown a large gap between her striking and grappling skills and has struggled when unable to get the fight to the mat. Santos is a very high-level striker with excellent takedown defense and great clinch grappling, which present serious issues for Chandler’s style. If Santos keeps the fight standing, I expect her to outpace Chandler and use her superior striking to find a victory.
Barlow vs. Veretennikov to Not Go the Distance: A matchup between two very dangerous strikers, this could be Fight of the Night. Although both strikers, they fight very differently, with Barlow tending to fight at range and use his length to damage his opponents while Veretennikov looks to close the distance and land bombs constantly. Both have the power to produce flash knockouts and will constantly look to do so. I believe both are equally dangerous, so I’m not entirely willing to pick a winner, but I’d be shocked to see this fight go to the scorecards.
Serghei Spivac Moneyline: A rematch of two top-ten Heavyweights, this is tough to predict. Tybura dominated their first meeting, controlling Spivac for over eight minutes and nearly tripling his total strikes landed. In the four years since this fight, it seems Spivac has undergone more change than Tybura. While Tybura still favors a slower, wrestling-heavy, and controlled-based game plan, Spivac has increased his pace and tenacity. Spivac hasn’t gone to a decision in three years now and constantly pursues a finish. While I wouldn’t claim Tybura has lost any skill, he’s facing a man nine years his junior with much more tread left on the tires. Although there isn’t a difference in height or reach, Spivac has a solid 11-pound weight advantage, a significant difference when the fight is likely to play out on the mat. I expect Spivac to secure an early takedown, taking control of the fight from the start, dictate the pace, and ultimately secure the victory.
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
The UFC returns to the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi with an outstanding Fight Night card. With fantastic matchups, finishers, and rising prospects throughout the card, there’s sure to be plenty of highlights come Sunday morning. In the co-main event, we’ll see the red-hot Shara Magomedov face off with the heavy-handed Michal Oleksiejczuk. In the main event, we’ll witness a highly anticipated showdown between top contender Cory Sandhagen and rising star Umar Nurmagomedov. From top to bottom, there are plenty of fighters vying to make their name on the biggest stage in MMA. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Joel Álvarez vs. Elves Brener
Lightweight Bout
Joel Álvarez: 20-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 17 Sub.
Elves Brener: 16-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Álvarez has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Joe Duffy (16-5-0), Marc Diakiese (17-7-0), and Thiago Moises (18-8-0). A well-rounded, lengthy fighter, he’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes. He throws everything with knockout intentions and can do damage at range or in the pocket, landing heavy kicks from distance and brutal knees on the inside. Training at Bandog Fight Club, Álvarez has an excellent variety of attacks and will constantly add kicks to the end of his combinations. Despite his exceptional submission game, he rarely pursues takedowns and has not landed one in his promotional tenure. Instead, he tends to find his submissions via reversals or openings off his back. Fifteen of his seventeen submissions have come via choke, and he can find submissions with blinding speed if he gets to his opponent’s neck.
Brener has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Zubaira Tukhugov (20-6-1), Guram Kutateladze (12-4-0), and Kaynan Kruschewsky (15-3-0). He’s a heavy-handed striker with a slick submission game who always pursues a finish. He throws everything with power and is willing to get wild, regularly throwing jumping knees and kicks. Brener has solid cardio, pushing a consistent pace throughout, and has proven exceptionally durable and capable of surviving in deep waters. He’s averaging over one takedown landed per fight, is very strong in the clinch, and can find submissions quickly on the mat. Training at Chute Boxe, he varies his shots well, attacking the head, legs, and body, regularly changing stances to set up his kicks. Brener has one-shot knockout power and is at his most dangerous early on, with nine of his fourteen finishes coming in round one.
#7 Mackenzie Dern vs. #10 Loopy Godínez
Women’s Strawweight Bout
Mackenzie Dern: 13-5-0, 0 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Loopy Godínez: 12-4-0, 1 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Dern has won two of her last five outings and has UFC victories over #3 ranked Strawweight Virna Jandiroba (21-3-0), #9 ranked Strawweight Angela Hill (17-13-0), and Tecia Pennington (13-7-0). Easily the most credentialed grappler in the Strawweight division, she’s won gold medals at the ADCC World Championship, World Jiu-Jitsu Championship, European Championship, and more. Training at RVCA, she’ll do whatever she can to get the fight to the mat, including pulling guard or jumping for submissions while standing. Dern has excellent top control, transitions quickly, and never puts herself in bad spots on the ground. She tends to headhunt on the feet, often blitzing forward to throw combinations. She’s willing to eat a shot to land one and has decent power in her hands, but she usually uses her striking to close the distance and set up a takedown. With six of her seven submission wins coming in round one, Dern is at her most dangerous early on.
Godínez has won four of her last five fights and has UFC victories over #11 ranked Strawweight Tabatha Ricci (10-2-0), Ariane Carnelossi (15-3-0), and Loma Lookboonmee (9-3-0). A well-rounded scrapper, she’s always coming forward, looking to land offense. She remains technical throughout, always keeping her guard high and her shots tight and straight. Godínez has excellent footwork and distance management, typically holding the center of the octagon and cutting off the cage. Training at Lobo Gym, she’s averaging over three takedowns landed per fight and has landed five or more takedowns in a single fight four times in the UFC. She’s tough to take down and has excellent clinch striking, particularly her knees. She’s fought eleven times in just three years in the promotion and always leaves it all inside the cage.
Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa
Welterweight Bout
Tony Ferguson: 26-10-0, 13 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Michael Chiesa: 18-7-0, 0 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Ferguson has not won any of his last five bouts and has wins over former UFC Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (25-14-0), #14 ranked Lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (32-16-0), and #15 ranked Featherweight Edson Barboza (24-12-0). He is one of the sport's most beloved and respected fighters, going on a 12-fight win streak between 2013 and 2019. “El Cucuy” is well known for his unique style, moving awkwardly on the feet and doing odd things like throwing imaginary sand at his opponent. Ferguson has an excellent jab and solid boxing and is always willing to engage on the feet, fighting with a “kill or be killed” mentality. He has fantastic grappling, excellent wrestling, and one of the best submission games in the sport. With all 8 of his career submission wins coming via some form of choke, he’s especially dangerous with unorthodox submissions, particularly the d’arce choke. Ferguson is highly experienced and comfortable where the fight ends up.
Chiesa has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #7 ranked Lightweight Beneil Dariush (22-6-1), #12 ranked Welterweight Neil Magny (29-12-0), and Jim Miller (37-18-0). He’s a dangerous grappler with excellent wrestling and submissions. Averaging over three takedowns landed and one submission attempted per fifteen minutes, he’s most comfortable on the mat and won’t waste much time before taking it there. Chiesa is in perpetual motion on the feet, throwing lots of single shots and using his striking to set up his grappling, often striking into the clinch. He’s active on top, constantly looking to advance position and set up submissions. Training at Sikjitsu, he has excellent scrambles, smothering top pressure, and great transitions, regularly putting himself in advantageous positions out of grappling exchanges. Eight of Chiesa’s ten submissions have come via rear naked choke, and he’s incredibly dangerous if he can reach his opponent’s back.
#4 Marlon Vera vs. #6 Deiveson Figueiredo
Bantamweight Bout
Marlon Vera: 23-9-1, 8 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Deiveson Figueiredo: 23-3-1, 9 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Vera has won three of his last five fights and has wins over current UFC Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley (18-1-0), #9 ranked Bantamweight Rob Font (20-8-0), and #13 ranked Bantamweight Dominick Cruz (24-4-0). He is an experienced veteran with a diverse striking game and a granite chin. In his last five fights, he has absorbed, on average, about 167 significant strikes, something utterly absurd considering he won three of those bouts. Vera improves as the fight continues and can land damage in the pocket or at range, possessing particularly dangerous clinch striking. He stays technical across five rounds and regularly switches stances, holding power in both hands but never telegraphing or loading up. He supplies his opponent with a constant dose of kicks, constantly throwing various attacks with his legs, all with heavy power. Vera has dangerous BJJ and slick submissions, so although he’s most comfortable on the feet, he can find a finish anywhere.
Deiveson Figueiredo has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Flyweight Brandon Moreno (21-8-2), #6 ranked Flyweight Alex Perez (25-9-0), and #9 ranked Bantamweight Rob Font (20-8-0). He possesses unusual power for his size, throwing devastating hooks and kicks, often to the body. He used this power to tear through the Flyweight division, holding the most knockdowns in Flyweight history with 11, and is tied for the most finishes at Flyweight, with 7. Training with Team Figueiredo, he is willing to engage in grappling scenarios, has a solid guard on the bottom, and can do significant damage from the top when not pursuing a submission. Figueiredo has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and seems to find submissions out of nowhere. He quickly closes the distance on the feet and can land severe damage without much space, usually with his hands. Before his trilogy with Moreno, Figueiredo finished seven of his ten UFC bouts and always looks to close the show early.
Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Middleweight Bout
Shara Magomedov: 13-0-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Michal Oleksiejczuk: 19-8-0, 14 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Magomedov is undefeated and has UFC victories over Bruno Silva (23-11-0) and Antonio Trocoli (12-4-0). He’s a devastating, diverse striker with a fantastic arsenal of kicks. He’s constantly moving and switching stances, never remaining in one spot for long. Magomedov is excellent at range, peppering his opponent with lead leg attacks before blitzing in to throw bombs. Training at GOR MMA, he rarely initiates grappling exchanges, often accepting position on his back and throwing strikes. He regularly looks to land spinning attacks, particularly elbows and backfists. Magomedov has three wins within the first minute of the fight and always comes out guns blazing.
Oleksiejczuk has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Chidi Njokuani (23-10-0), Cody Brundage (10-6-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (16-6-0). He is an aggressive striker who’s always coming forward and throwing combinations. He has an excellent chin and considerable power in his hands, regularly entering the pocket to throw damaging, looping hooks. Oleksiejczuk has excellent head movement and footwork, never wastes energy, and throws everything with purpose. Training at Ankos MMA, he won’t stay at range long and virtually never throws kicks, mainly using his hands to land damage. Eleven of his fifteen career finishes have come inside the first round, so he’s definitely at his most dangerous early. Oleksiejczuk holds the center well and does a great job cutting off the cage, always stalking his opponents and looking for openings to throw big combinations.
#2 Cory Sandhagen vs. #10 Umar Nurmagomedov
Bantamweight Bout
Cory Sandhagen: 17-4-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Umar Nurmagomedov: 17-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Sandhagen has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Bantamweight Chito Vera (23-9-1), #7 ranked Bantamweight Song Yadong (21-8-1), and #12 ranked Bantamweight Mario Bautista (14-2-0). He is a top-level striker, constantly moving and setting traps for his opponent. He can land damage from range with his arsenal of kicks or on the inside with devastating knees and elbows. Training with Elevation Fight Team, Sandhagen has excellent cardio and can push a heavy pace across five rounds while remaining technical and keeping his strikes straight and tight. He’s constantly switching stances and never telegraphs his shots, regularly mixing kicks in at the end of punch combinations. He’s willing to grapple and will pursue takedowns, has solid top control, and rarely puts himself in bad positions on the ground. Sandhagen has only lost to current or former champions in his UFC tenure and will go toe-to-toe with anybody.
Nurmagomedov is undefeated and has UFC victories over Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0), Nate Maness (16-3-0), and Sergey Morozov (19-5-0). He’s a technical, well-rounded fighter with big power in his hands and dominant wrestling. He’s constantly switching stances and throwing lead leg attacks, always moving and never staying in one spot for long. Training at AKA, Nurmagomedov has fantastic takedowns and top control, often landing takedowns in open space and quickly advancing position. He’s averaging over four takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and remains patient in top position, always looking for openings to land ground and pound or grab a submission. He has devastating power in his hands and can produce a flash knockout at any moment. Six of Nurmagomedov’s seven submissions have been via rear naked choke, so he’ll regularly look to take his opponent’s back.
Best Bets
Joel Álvarez Moneyline: A fantastic matchup of two wild fighters, this fight will likely be bonus-worthy. Both are well-rounded and willing to brawl on the feet while also possessing dangerous submission games. Although both have more submission victories than knockouts, neither is the type to shoot a takedown right out the gate, and I expect most of this fight to play out on the feet. Álvarez has a five-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, something seriously beneficial for a lengthy fighter who loves to kick. I believe Álvarez has the advantage on both the feet and the ground, so if he can pressure Brener and force him to grapple, he could easily find a submission. It is essential to consider Brener’s impressive durability, which is why I’m choosing moneyline over a finish. Regardless, I believe Álvarez has the skill and size to overwhelm Brener and secure the victory.
Deiveson Figueiredo by Decision: This fight is one of the more intriguing matchups on the card. Both are very well-rounded, tenured, and durable. Vera's consistent problem is that he tends to start slow, mostly looking for reads early on instead of landing offense. While this is brought up before all of his fights, it could be a significant problem against Figueiredo. Figueiredo has gone five rounds multiple times and should have little issue going three, meaning he will likely push a heavy pace throughout. While the size difference feels like it would be significant, Vera has just a one-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, and with Figueiredo always looking to get into the pocket, Vera won’t be able to throw his typical long combinations and kicks. I anticipate Figueiredo getting on the gas early, throwing power shots, and pursuing takedowns. I expect him to get the fight to the mat, wearing down and neutralizing Vera and walking away with another victory in his new weight class.
Cory Sandhagen Moneyline: This is the most challenging fight on the card to predict. Much of the mystery lies in Nurmagomedov’s game plan; will he engage the striking or look to wrestle from the opening bell? Sandhagen definitely has the striking advantage, having consistently proven to be one of the best strikers in the division. He’s also proven to be a highly capable wrestler, massively improving his grappling skills since his loss to Aljamain Sterling. This is also the first five-round fight of Nurmagomedov’s career, and with the level of skill between these two, I expect it to reach the championship rounds. Picking against a fighter with the last name Nurmagomedov is always a significant risk, but I believe Sandhagen has the ability to keep this fight on the feet where he can pick Nurmagomedov off. While I don’t anticipate Nurmagomedov gassing out, I expect Sandhagen to outpace and outstrike him and ultimately earn the upset victory.
UFC 304 Preview
The UFC hits Manchester, England, this weekend with an outstanding pay-per-view card. Loaded from top to bottom with fantastic matchups, plenty of highlights are sure to be created on Saturday. In the co-main event, we’ll see a long-awaited rematch, this time for interim gold, between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. In the main event, we’ll witness yet another rematch coming off a controversial first meeting when reigning champion Leon Edwards takes on surging contender Belal Muhammad. With excellent fights spread throughout the card, we’re going to take a look at select preliminary bouts and the full main card.
Prelims
#6 Muhammad Mokaev vs. #8 Manel Kape
Flyweight Bout
Muhammad Mokaev: 12-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Manel Kape: 19-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Mokaev is undefeated and has UFC victories over #7 ranked Flyweight Alex Perez (25-9-0), #11 ranked Flyweight Tim Elliott (21-13-1), and Jafel Filho (16-3-0). He’s a dominant grappler with fantastic wrestling and solid striking. He’s a tenacious wrestler, willing to work hard along the cage to secure takedowns. Mokaev has great chain grappling, often stringing together takedowns, especially in the clinch. When he does get the fight to the floor, he’s more likely to pursue submissions than a ground-and-pound finish, using heavy control to keep his opponent beneath him. Training at KHK MMA Team, he has excellent cardio and can easily grapple for 15 minutes. Mokaev pushes a heavy pace and is always dangerous, with most of his finishes coming after the first round.
Kape has won four of his last five fights and holds UFC wins over Ode’ Osbourne (12-7-0), Felipe dos Santos (8-1-0), and David Dvorak (20-6-0). He is a former Rizin Bantamweight champion and is a fantastic, flashy striker. He’s constantly looking to counterstrike, throwing every shot with purpose and deadly accuracy. Kape has excellent distance management, switches stances constantly, and will often blitz in with big shots before returning to range. He has heavy power for Flyweight and doesn’t telegraph anything, frequently timing his shots when his opponent enters his range. Training at Xtreme Couture, he won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges but has a solid submission game and can be dangerous off his back. Kape takes some time to get going, but once he finds his rhythm, he heats up and lets his hands go.
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio
Light Heavyweight Bout
Modestas Bukauskas: 15-6-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Marcin Prachnio: 17-7-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Bukauskas has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Tyson Pedro (10-5-0), Zac Pauga (7-3-0), and Andreas Michailidis (16-7-0). He is a technical kickboxer, always in perpetual motion, constantly feinting and making great use of his footwork. He has a solid arsenal of kicks and will often do most of his damage from range, only entering the pocket to unload combinations. Bukauskas throws everything with power but is an accurate striker, never wasting energy or point-fighting. He’s at his best coming forward, controlling the distance and speed of the fight. Training at Gintas Combat, he favors a slower-paced, technical kickboxing match and has not attempted a takedown in his UFC tenure. Bukauskas tends to favor power to volume, having been outstruck in all his wins in the promotion.
Prachnio has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #8 ranked Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. (14-5-0), Devin Clark (14-9-0), and William Knight (11-6-0). A karate-style fighter, he’s constantly switching stances and attacking with his lead hand and leg. He’s always moving, doing a great job of holding the center and moving in and out of the pocket without taking significant damage. Prachnio mixes up his shots well, attacking the head, body, and legs evenly without telegraphing or loading up. Training at Tatsujin Dojo, he’s constantly looking to set up his lead hand, often dipping his head to avoid strikes and counter with looping shots. He has solid cardio and pushes a consistent pace throughout, landing, on average, about 74 significant strikes per fight in his last five appearances. Prachnio can produce flash finishes, holding six finish wins within the first two minutes of the fight.
Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda
Featherweight Bout
Nathaniel Wood: 20-6-0, 9 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Daniel Pineda: 28-15-0, 9 KO/TKO, 19 Sub.
Wood has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Andre Fili (24-11-0), Charles Jourdain (15-8-1), and Charles Rosa (16-8-0). He’s a well-rounded scrapper with technical striking and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s constantly moving, feinting, and switching stances, often looking to counterstrike. Wood will throw constant leg kicks before darting into the pocket to throw combinations, continually looking to land shots with his lead hand. Training at GB Top Team, he’s averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, has excellent transitions and reversals, and is tough to take down, having defended 70% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He has excellent cardio, pushes a consistent pace throughout the fight, and always remains technical. Wood has landed, on average, about 93 significant strikes in his last five fights and loves to hang in the pocket and let his hands go.
Pineda has won two of his last five bouts with one no-contest and has UFC victories over Herbert Burns (11-5-0) and Tucker Lutz (12-4-0). A wild fighter, he has big-time power in his hands and a dangerous submission game. He comes out guns blazing, throwing every shot with power and regularly attempting spinning attacks. Pineda is always coming forward and looking to land bombs, never trying just to touch his opponent. He’s averaging nearly two takedowns landed and two submissions attempted per fifteen minutes and is very active in top position. Training at 4oz Fight Club, he’s always dangerous on top and will constantly hunt for his opponent’s neck, with twelve of his nineteen submissions coming via some form of choke. Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories, with seventeen coming in round one, and is always dangerous.
Main Card
#6 Arnold Allen vs. #10 Giga Chikadze
Featherweight Bout
Arnold Allen: 19-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Giga Chikadze: 15-3-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Allen has won three of his last five outings with UFC victories over #9 ranked Featherweight Calvin Kattar (23-8-0), #11 ranked Lightweight Dan Hooker (23-12-0), and Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0). He is an excellent technical striker, possessing serious speed, power in his hands, and a solid arsenal of kicks. He has some of the best striking defense in the UFC, only absorbing, on average, about three significant strikes per minute, with a significant strike defense percentage of 61%. Allen throws lengthy combinations, rarely throwing single shots, and often mixes in head and body kicks at the end of his combinations. He throws everything with substantial power but remains accurate, allowing him to push a heavy pace across an entire fight. Training at BKK Fighters, he averages over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and seems equally comfortable on the ground as he is on the feet. Allen is seemingly never in one place for long, constantly moving and attacking from different angles, making himself incredibly elusive.
Chikadze has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #15 ranked Featherweight Edson Barboza (24-12-0), Cub Swanson (29-14-0), and Alex Caceres (21-15-0). He’s an excellent kickboxer with heavy hands and devastating body kicks. Training at Kings MMA, Chikadze is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 38-8-0 with 22 knockouts. He’s unlikely to take the fight to the mat but has excellent takedown defense and is strong inside the clinch, able to land significant damage without much space. Holding a third Dan black belt in Goju-ryu karate, he has exceptionally educated feet and never telegraphs his attacks. He’s proven to possess one-shot knockout power in both his hands and kicks, capable of finishing opponents with kicks to the body. He’s outstruck his opponents in all his UFC victories and is capable of throwing both with volume and power.
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Middleweight Bout
Christian Leroy Duncan: 10-1-0, 8 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Gregory Rodrigues: 15-5-0, 10 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Duncan has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Denis Tiuliulin (10-9-0), Claudio Ribeiro (11-5-0), and Dusko Todorovic (12-4-0). He’s a flashy striker with power in both hands and an impressive arsenal of attacks. He’s highly unpredictable, constantly moving and switching stances while attempting spinning and jumping attacks. Duncan is highly accurate and efficient, throwing every shot purposefully without ever loading up or overextending. He’s excellent at controlling the center, constantly pressuring his opponent while fighting behind his jab. Training at Ranger MMA Academy, he’s willing to grapple and will occasionally shoot takedowns, advancing very quickly and raining down ground and pound when in top position. Duncan has excellent cardio and carries his power across all three rounds, capable of creating a highlight at any moment.
Rodrigues has won three of his last five outings, with UFC wins coming over Junyong Park (17-5-0), Chidi Njokuani (22-9-0), and Brad Tavares (20-10-0). “Robocop” has one of the best nicknames in MMA and some of the most devastating power in the promotion. He fights with a powerful kickboxing style, is willing to engage both in the pocket and at range, and has quick kicks for someone his size. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Rodrigues has knockout ability at all times and can seemingly find finishes from nowhere. He has excellent range management and movement and can land in the pocket and return to range unscathed. He has solid accuracy and volume to match his power, landing significant strikes with 55% accuracy in his UFC tenure. Rodrigues has an excellent chin and is more than willing to eat a shot to land one, regularly getting drawn into wild brawls.
#15 King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
Lightweight Bout
King Green: 32-15-1, 11 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Paddy Pimblett: 21-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Green has won three of his last five fights with one draw and has wins over Tony Ferguson (26-10-0), Jim Miller (37-18-0), and Grant Dawson (21-2-1). Training at Icon MMA, he is an excellent boxer, picking his opponents apart with quick combinations and damaging straights. He’s rarely in a boring fight, always willing to go to the center of the octagon and exchange blows. Green has been awarded Performance of the Night three times and Fight of the Night four times, backing up his scrappy tendencies. He also has excellent wrestling to supplement his striking, having defended 74% of takedowns attempted on him, and has a solid submission game and top control. He’s efficient both on offense and defense, having landed 52% of his significant strikes attempted and defended 62% of significant strikes thrown at him in the UFC. Green does a great job mixing up his strikes, attacking the head and the body evenly, and throwing the occasional kick to finish a combination.
Pimblett is on a seven-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Jared Gordon (20-7-0), Kazula Vargas (12-5-0), and Jordan Leavitt (11-3-0). He is a very aggressive striker, always throwing everything with power and using a variety of wild kicks. He throws in combination and is willing to brawl in the pocket, often blitzing forward and swinging wild hooks. Training at Next Generation UK, Pimblett is an excellent grappler, and in his promotional tenure, he’s averaging about one takedown landed and over one submission attempted per 15 minutes. He has excellent takedowns and advances position quickly on the ground, always looking to find a finish. He’s very creative on the ground and is one of the most dangerous men in the sport to have on your back, regularly securing chokes with impressive speed. Six of Pimblett’s nine career submissions are rear naked chokes, and he also has two flying triangle wins, so if he can get a hold of his opponent’s neck, the fight is practically over.
(IC) Tom Aspinall vs. #4 Curtis Blaydes
Interim Heavyweight Title Bout
Tom Aspinall: 14-3-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Curtis Blaydes: 18-4-0, 13 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Aspinall has won four of his last five outings with UFC victories over #3 ranked Heavyweight Alexander Volkov (38-10-0), #5 ranked Heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich (18-3-0), and #8 ranked Heavyweight Marcin Tybura (25-8-0). He’s a well-rounded fighter who is comfortable anywhere and constantly pursues a finish. He’s a fast starter but won’t get wild, never overextending on his shots and always keeping his head off the centerline. Aspinall has excellent footwork and distance management, absorbing, on average, just six significant strikes per fight in his UFC tenure. He has 100% takedown defense and accuracy, can land shots in open space, and advances position very quickly on the ground. Training at Team Kaobon, he’s never been to the third round in his career, with his last four fights not leaving the first round. Aspinall has racked up six Performance of the Night bonuses in just eight UFC fights and has 13 first-round finishes in his career.
Blaydes has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #3 ranked Heavyweight Alexander Volkov (38-10-0), #7 ranked Heavyweight Jailton Almeida (21-3-0), and #12 ranked Heavyweight Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5-0). A dominant wrestler, he’s constantly looking to take the fight to the mat and control the pace. He’s averaging nearly six takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and secures them quickly, capable of landing shots in the open and along the fence. Blaydes favors power to volume on the feet, throwing straight, tight shots and constantly moving, feinting, and switching stances. He fights behind his jab, remaining technical and composed while throwing every shot with fight-ending power. Training at Elevation Fight Team, he looks to smother his opponent and drag them into deep waters, not necessarily forcing a finish. Blaydes has the UFC Heavyweight records for most takedowns landed (62) and most control time (1:20:06), making takedown attempts essentially inevitable.
(C) Leon Edwards vs. #2 Belal Muhammad
Welterweight Title Bout
Leon Edwards: 22-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Belal Muhammad: 23-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Edwards has been undefeated since 2015 with one no-contest and has UFC wins over #1 ranked Welterweight Kamaru Usman (20-4-0), #13 ranked Welterweight Vicente Luque (22-10-1), and #14 ranked Lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (32-16-0). He is a very polished striker, holding the sixth fastest finish in UFC history, scoring an 8-second KO in his second UFC fight, and is dangerous across all 25 minutes. He has excellent volume striking, outlanding eight of his last ten opponents and averaging about 66 significant strikes landed in his last five fights. Edwards has excellent takedown defense and is most comfortable on his feet, but is solid on the mat and willing to grapple. Averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes, he has heavy ground and pound and holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Training with Renegade MMA, he throws every shot with purpose and won’t overextend, remaining technical throughout the fight. Edwards has gone five rounds in three of his last five bouts and is more than prepared to go to war again.
Muhammad is on a 9-fight win streak with one draw and has UFC victories over #6 ranked Welterweight Gilbert Burns (22-7-0), #8 ranked Welterweight Sean Brady (16-1-0), and #9 ranked Welterweight Stephen Thompson (17-7-1). Primarily a wrestler, he prefers to take the fight to the mat, using blast double-leg takedowns to drag his opponents to the floor and do damage. He has heavy top pressure, advances position quickly, and never puts himself in dangerous spots. On the feet, Muhammad uses a heavy-handed boxing style, remaining technical and throwing in combination, often using his striking to set up his grappling. Training at Valle Flow Striking, he’s landing, on average, 75 significant strikes landed in his last five outings and pushes a consistent pace throughout. He’s exceptionally defensively sound, holding the second-highest takedown defense percentage in UFC history at 93%. Muhammad has outstruck seven of his last ten opponents and is always looking to wear down and outpace his foe.
Best Bets
Modestas Bukauskas Moneyline: This is easily one of the card's most underrated matchups. I expect fireworks inside the cage. Prachnio uses a very footwork-based karate style, not necessarily moving slowly but utilizing distance and space to do most of his work. Bukauskas is more of a pressure fighter, always looking to come forward and do damage, which presents serious issues for Prachnio’s style. If Prachnio can’t get out to space and use his footwork to set up his kicking game, he won’t be able to utilize a significant portion of his skillset. I expect Bukauskas to push the pace early, shut down Prachnio’s footwork, and secure a victory.
Green vs. Pimblett to Not Go the Distance: This is a very tough fight to pick a winner in. While, like many fans, I have no desire to root for Pimblett, his style offers many issues for Green. While Green has a definite advantage on the feet, Pimblett has a clear advantage on the ground. Both fighters constantly throw caution to the wind and are very brash and cocky, unwilling to back down. Due to this, I’d be shocked to see this go the full fifteen minutes. Whether Green catches him on the feet or Pimblett finds a submission, I expect someone to earn a finish victory in this matchup.
Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO: While I’m confident in Aspinall, I don’t believe the moneyline odds tell the whole story. Blaydes is extremely dangerous, with fantastic wrestling and serious power in his hands. I’m shocked to see this much distance in the lines, but I’m not surprised bettors are siding with Aspinall to such an extent. Aspinall is considerably more well-rounded, possessing not just wrestling and power but an excellent submission game, crisp hands, and technical kickboxing. While I believe he can finish Blaydes on the mat, he has the takedown defense to keep it standing, where Blaydes is much less comfortable. If he keeps it on the feet, I expect him to be far too fast and strong for Blaydes to survive, and Aspinall should be able to put him away.
Leon Edwards Moneyline: This is by far the most challenging call on this card. While easy to hate, Muhammad has certainly earned this opportunity and is a serious threat to Edwards’s title reign. The biggest question coming into this bout is about the effectiveness of Muhammad’s wrestling. Edwards seems to have a clear advantage on the feet, but he could be in serious trouble if he finds himself in the bottom position for extended periods. While Muhammad is an excellent grappler, he doesn’t offer much in terms of submission threat and isn’t exactly known for mauling opponents with ground and pound. Leon has proven he will not simply accept the position on his back and has shown his ability to defend takedowns in his matchups with Kamaru Usman. If Edwards can fend off the takedowns and keep it standing, he can not only secure another title defense, but quite possibly a highlight-reel victory.
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez Preview
The UFC returns to Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, with an excellent Fight Night card. In the co-main event, two highly-potent finishers will collide when Santiago Ponzinibbio takes on Muslim Salikhov. In the main event, we’ll see an established legend, Rose Namajunas, face off with quickly rising prospect Tracy Cortez. From the prelims to the main card, there are excellent fights throughout that are sure to create highlights. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage
Middleweight Bout
Abdul Razak Alhassan: 12-6-0, 12 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Cody Brundage: 10-6-0, 5 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Alhassan has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Niko Price (16-7-0), Alessio Di Chirico (13-7-0), and Claudio Ribeiro (11-5-0). He is an explosive, dangerous striker who prefers power to volume and is always coming forward. He constantly throws looping shots and hooks, often loading up and hunting for the one-shot knockout. Alhassan has a dangerous kicking game, usually throwing them without setup and with massive power. All his professional wins have come via finish, with eleven coming in round one. Training with Elevation Fight Team, he has a black belt in Judo, is very strong in the clinch, and can land throws and trips when in close. Alhassan averages just under one takedown landed per fifteen minutes but is usually comfortable keeping the fight standing.
Brundage has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Tresean Gore (5-2-0), Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0), and Jacob Malkoun (8-3-0). He is a powerful wrestler with solid power in his hands. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed and nearly one submission attempted per fifteen minutes. Brundage is willing to fight on the feet and throws everything with power, often ducking his head to throw counterstrikes. He uses a great variety of attacks and is a creative striker, with him most commonly throwing overhands and hooks. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, he often shoots early and has solid takedowns, usually securing them quickly. Brundage is exceptionally explosive and unpredictable, holding one-shot knockout power and regularly jumping guillotines.
Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
Featherweight Bout
Julian Erosa: 29-12-0, 11 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.
Christian Rodriguez: 11-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Erosa has won three of his last five outings and has wins over Hakeem Dawodu (13-4-1), Charles Jourdain (15-8-1), and Nate Landwehr (18-5-0). He utilizes an awkward style on the feet, staying upright with his hands down and throwing lots of looping hooks from strange angles. He is seemingly always moving forward, whether to initiate a grappling exchange or land strikes and has the cardio to easily do so over three rounds. Erosa is willing to get into brawls on the feet, gladly hanging in the pocket and exchanging combinations. Training at Xtreme Couture, he averages over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and is a slick submission artist, with two UFC victories via D’arce choke, one of which was standing. He has proven to be a bit of a slow starter but heats up as the fight goes on. Erosa has found 75% of his finishes after the first round and is always dangerous.
Rodriguez has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Raul Rosas Jr. (9-1-0), Joshua Weems (10-3-0), and Cameron Saaiman (9-2-0). He’s a well-rounded scrapper with excellent counterstriking and a slick submission game. He’s constantly pressuring forward, looking to draw punches out of his opponent to land counterstrikes. Rodriguez always looks to close the distance, regularly throwing step-in elbows and knees. He’s averaging over one takedown landed and over one submission attempted per fifteen minutes. Training at Roufusport, he has excellent transitions and reversals on the ground, always placing himself in an advantageous position. Rodriguez has consistently been matched up with other top prospects, with three of his promotional victories coming over undefeated fighters.
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa
Welterweight Bout
Gabriel Bonfim: 15-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.
Ange Loosa: 10-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Bonfim has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Mounir Lazzez (11-3-0) and Trevin Giles (16-6-0). He always comes out guns blazing, throwing bombs, and looking for an early finish. Fighting behind his jab, he uses crisp boxing and consistently throws in combination, possessing excellent speed and power in his hands. Bonfim loves to engage in the pocket and tends to headhunt but won’t get sloppy, always keeping his guard high and his punches tight and straight. He has a deadly submission game, can find chokes from seemingly anywhere, and has fantastic takedowns. Training at Cerrado MMA, he advances with lightning speed on the ground and always pursues a finish. Bonfim has finished all his professional wins and pushes a crazy pace from the first bell to the last.
Loosa has won three of his last five outings with one no-contest and has UFC victories over AJ Fletcher (10-3-0) and Rhys McKee (13-6-1). He’s a powerful, technical striker who can land damage anywhere, any time. He’s always willing to eat a shot to land one, absorbing, on average, about 83 significant strikes per fight in his promotional tenure. Loosa throws every shot straight and tight, regularly lunging forward to unload 1-2 combinations. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has brutal ground and pound. He remains technical throughout, fighting behind his jab and always keeping his hands high. Loosa won his first six professional fights by first-round finish and is at his most dangerous early on.
Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva
Lightweight Bout
Drew Dober: 27-13-0, 15 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Jean Silva: 13-2-0, 10 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Dober has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #15 ranked Lightweight Bobby Green (32-15-1), Terrance McKinney (15-7-0), and Nasrat Haqparast (17-5-0). He is an excellent striker with a Muay Thai background and a black belt in Taekwondo. He always stays technical and throws all his punches tight and straight, rarely throwing looping shots. Dober throws everything with knockout intentions and carries his power across all three rounds. Training with Elevation Fight Team, he has excellent head movement and varies his shots, attacking the head and body evenly. He’s willing to brawl in the pocket but doesn’t get sloppy, has solid footwork, and is always coming forward. Dober does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket, throwing kicks at range, and landing damaging combinations in close.
Silva is on a ten-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Westin Wilson (17-9-0) and Charles Jourdain (15-8-1). He’s a flashy striker with power in both hands who constantly hunts for a knockout. He starts slow, looking for openings and throwing heavy, single shots. Silva can get wild on the feet, fighting with his hands low, talking trash, and attempting spinning and jumping attacks. Training with Fighting Nerds, he heats up as the fight continues, gradually increasing his forward pressure and output. His best shots are his right straight and lead hook, and he’ll constantly look to set up either. Silva has only left the first round twice during his win streak and has the power to produce a flash knockout at any time.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov
Welterweight Bout
Santiago Ponzinibbio: 30-7-0, 16 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Muslim Salikhov: 19-5-0, 13 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Ponzinibbio has won two of his last five bouts and has wins over #12 ranked welterweight Neil Magny (29-10-0), Miguel Baeza (10-4-0), and Alex Morono (24-10-0). Training at American Top Team, Ponzinibbio is an impressive striker with serious power, always using a solid variety of attacks to get the job done. Ponzinibbio has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a solid submission game, but he’s unlikely to take the fight to the mat. He remains technical throughout a fight and is comfortable fighting at range and in the pocket. Averaging about 85 significant strikes landed per fight in his last five bouts, Ponzinibbio has a great chin, solid cardio, and can push a consistent pace across 15 minutes. Fifteen of his 22 career finishes have come in the first round, so he’s very dangerous early in the fight.
Salikhov has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Franciso Trinaldo (28-9-0), Andre Fialho (16-9-0), and Nordine Taleb (15-7-0). He holds the rank of Master of Sport in Wushu Sanda (Chinese kickboxing) and a pro kickboxing record of 185-13 with 76 wins by knockout. He’s an incredibly dangerous striker, possessing solid power and excellent technical skills. Salikhov has an impressive arsenal of kicks, particularly his array of spinning attacks that he loves to throw. Training at Berkut FC, he’s also very defensively sound, having defended 62% of significant strikes attempted on him in his promotional tenure. He is willing to grapple and averages just over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes, typically raining down devastating ground and pound when in top position. Salikhov is highly experienced and very tough to put away, always coming forward and looking to do damage throughout the fight.
#6 Rose Namajunas vs. #11 Tracy Cortez
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Rose Namajunas: 13-6-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Tracy Cortez: 11-1-0, 1 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Namajunas has won three of her last five outings and has wins over former UFC Strawweight champions Jessica Andrade (26-12-0), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-5-0), and Zhang Weili (25-3-0). She’s a well-rounded fighter with a solid kickboxing game and excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Training at 303 Training Center, she has sneaky power, a sturdy chin, and has proven her ability to go five rounds without slowing. Holding black belts in both Taekwondo and Karate, Namajunas has very educated feet and crisp boxing. Averaging over one takedown landed per 15 minutes, she is willing to engage in grappling exchanges and has great top control to complement her excellent submission game. Six of her last nine bouts have been for titles against some of the fiercest competition in the sport, making her prepared for nearly anything. She’s been awarded six bonuses and has five finishes in the promotion, almost always leaving everything in the cage.
Cortez is on an 11-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #15 ranked Flyweight Jasmine Jasudavicius (10-3-0), Melissa Gatto (9-2-2), and Stephanie Egger (8-5-0). She's a talented grappler with solid hands and is comfortable wherever the fight goes. She’s averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has landed a takedown in all her UFC appearances but one. Cortez has heavy top control and stays patient in top position, never putting herself in comprising positions. Training at Fight Ready, she does most of her work on the feet inside the pocket, throwing in combination and favoring volume to power. She has excellent cardio and pushes a consistent pace, fighting behind her jab and remaining technical throughout. Cortez has landed, on average, over 60 significant strikes per fight in her promotional tenure and is willing to eat a shot to land one.
Best Bets
Cody Brundage Moneyline: One of the more explosive matchups on the card; both fighters are very dangerous. What truly separates the two is their grappling. While Alhassan has a black belt in Judo, he’s struggled when facing powerful wrestlers in the UFC. In five of his six losses in the promotion, he was taken down more than three times and outstruck on the stat sheet. While Brundage is not a volume fighter, he is a powerful wrestler willing to shoot early. If he can take the fight to the mat early on, Alhassan is likely to gas and become more susceptible to takedowns and being controlled. Assuming Brundage doesn’t decide to have a crazy brawl, he should be able to grapple his way to victory.
Drew Dober Moneyline: A bit of an odd matchup; Silva is stepping in on two weeks' notice after fighting at UFC 303. While he hardly absorbed damage in that bout, he’s now facing an exceptionally dangerous, powerful opponent. With this being just the third UFC appearance for Silva, it’s unlikely he’s faced an opponent with the skill, power, or chin of Dober. Now a decade-long veteran of the UFC, Dober has seen it all in one of the most dangerous divisions in the sport. Given the fact that he’s on a full training camp and much more experienced, I expect Dober to be too much too soon for Silva. I expect this fight to devolve into a brawl quickly, one I believe Dober will get the better of and secure the win.
Rose Namajunas by Submission: Another short-notice matchup, Cortez is stepping in on just under two weeks’ notice into her first main event spot. While she’s proven exceptionally well-rounded and durable, this is an enormous jump in competition. In her sixth UFC appearance, she will be taking on a former multi-time champion with an exceptional resume in the first 5-round fight of Cortez’s young career. In contrast, seven of Namajunas’s last nine fights were five rounds, and she’s been facing top-level competition for over a decade. She has a technical advantage nearly anywhere in this fight; I expect Namajunas to win the exchanges on the feet, forcing Cortez to grapple and allowing Namajunas to find a submission victory.
UFC 303 Preview
The UFC returns to its home base at T-Mobile Arena with an outstanding pay-per-view card. In the co-main event, we’ll see two outstanding grapplers face off when Brian Ortega takes on Diego Lopes. In the main event, we’ll witness a historic rematch of two dangerous scrappers, Alex Pereira and Jiří Procházka. This entire card is loaded from top to bottom and is sure to deliver throughout. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
#7 Ian Machado Garry vs. #14 Michael Page
Welterweight Bout
Ian Machado Garry: 14-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Michael Page: 22-2-0, 13 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Garry is undefeated and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Welterweight Geoff Neal (15-6-0), #12 ranked Welterweight Neil Magny (29-12-0), and Daniel Rodriguez (17-5-0). He’s an excellent striker with a very fluid style, constantly moving and bouncing on his feet with an almost karate-like stance. He’s highly accurate, having landed 55% of the significant strikes he has attempted in the UFC, and remains patient, always looking for openings. Garry fights behind his jab and has excellent distance management, typically controlling the center of the cage and forcing his opponent to the outside. He has a deadly kicking arsenal and uses them to do significant damage at range, never telegraphing and constantly mixing kicks into punch combinations. Training at Chute Boxe, he holds a black belt in Judo and has solid takedown defense but rarely initiates grappling exchanges. Garry benefits from a slower, more technical fight, yet to be pulled into a knockdown, drag-out brawl.
Page has won four of his last five bouts and has a UFC victory over #15 ranked Welterweight Kevin Holland (26-11-0). Arguably the biggest star in Bellator history, he held a record of 17-2 in the promotion in his decade-long tenure. One of the most dangerous kickboxers in the sport, he has a fantastic arsenal of flashy kicks and flashier celebrations. Training at London Shootfighters, Page is in perpetual motion, keeping his hands down and his stance wide, looking for openings to land devastating kicks or combinations. He never telegraphs his attacks, constantly changes his target, and has fantastic distance management. He won’t typically pursue grappling exchanges but has solid takedown defense and submissions. With 13 finishes in the first round, Page is most dangerous early on.
#3 Mayra Bueno Silva vs. #7 Macy Chiasson
Women’s Bantamweight Bout
Mayra Bueno Silva: 10-3-1, 1 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Macy Chiasson: 10-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Bueno Silva has won three of her last five fights with one no-contest and has UFC victories over Wu Yanan (12-7-0), Gillian Robertson (13-8-0), and Mara Romero Borella (12-9-0). She’s a wild, well-rounded fighter in constant pursuit of a finish. She’s perpetually coming forward on the feet, often throwing single shots and naked kicks with serious power. Bueno Silva varies her shots well, attacking the head and body evenly and typically setting up her offense with leg kicks. Although she won’t usually land many takedowns, she averages nearly two submissions attempted per fifteen minutes and is very dangerous on the ground. Training at American Top Team, she has heavy top pressure and never accepts a position, always looking to advance and find a submission. Bueno Silva prefers power to volume, throwing plenty of looping shots and loading up on her punches.
Chiasson has won three of her last five fights and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Bantamweight Norma Dumont (11-2-0), #11 ranked Bantamweight Pannie Kianzad (17-8-0), and Gina Mazany (8-6-0). She is a lengthy fighter, using her reach to attack both the head and body, often landing big shots when at range. The winner of TUF season 28, she’s willing to take the fight to the ground, doing plenty of work on the feet while regularly mixing in takedowns. When she does get the fight to the mat, Chiasson uses solid top control to land ground and pound, not usually pursuing submissions. Training at Fortis MMA, she has a decent arsenal of kicks to back up her hands, throwing a good variety of kicks to the head and body, especially front kicks. She favors power to volume, using her size and strength to damage her opponents. Chiasson is always dangerous, with most of her finishes coming after round one.
#10 Anthony Smith vs. #10 (MW) Roman Dolidze
Light Heavyweight Bout
Anthony Smith: 38-19-0, 19 KO/TKO, 15 Sub.
Roman Dolidze: 12-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Smith has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #9 ranked Volkan Oezdemir (20-7-0), Ryan Spann (21-10-0), and Alexander Gustafsson (18-8-0). A well-rounded veteran, he’s highly durable and always pushes a consistent pace. He throws everything with power but remains technical throughout, always keeping his hands high and his shots straight. Smith fights behind his jab, never telegraphs or loads up, and constantly looks to close the distance and let his hands go. He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has solid takedowns and top control. Training at FactoyX Muay Thai, he’s patient on top, looking for submission openings without putting himself in dangerous positions. Smith is rarely in a boring fight and always leaves everything in the cage, holding six Performance of the Night bonuses.
Dolidze has won four of his last five outings and has wins over #9 ranked Middleweight Jack Hermansson (24-8-0), Phil Hawes (12-6-0), and Kyle Daukaus (14-4-0). He is an accomplished grappler outside of MMA and has a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Sambo background. Averaging over one takedown landed and one submission attempted per fifteen minutes, he is most at home on the mat. Dolidze is excellent in the clinch and very hard to shake off, possessing devastating striking in close, particularly knees. Training at Xtreme Couture, he won’t put out too much ground and pound, choosing to focus on advancing position. He has good power in his hands and prefers to counter-strike when on the feet, not moving his feet a ton but always moving his head. Dolidze gets his best work done in the clinch, often throwing power shots in the pocket while exiting the clinch.
#3 (FW) Brian Ortega vs. #14 (FW) Diego Lopes
Lightweight Bout
Brian Ortega: 16-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Diego Lopes: 24-6-0, 10 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.
Ortega has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Featherweight Yair Rodriguez (16-5-0), #10 ranked Lightweight Renato Moicano (19-5-1), and Frankie Edgar (23-11-1). He’s a well-rounded fighter with technical striking and a slick submission game. He possesses power and speed in his hands, throwing everything tight and straight and never telegraphing his shots. He has a granite chin and excellent cardio, never going away or slowing down during the fight. Ortega advances lightning-fast on the ground, often chaining submissions together and easily transitioning between them. Training at Huntington Beach UTC, he has flashy attacks to back up his technical skill and can land flying knees and spinning attacks. He varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly and regularly landing brutal leg kicks. All of Ortega’s submissions have come via choke, and he is known to have one of the best triangle chokes in MMA.
Lopes has won four of his last five fights, and has UFC victories over Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0), Pat Sabatini (18-5-0), and Gavin Tucker (13-3-0). A well-rounded scrapper, he throws every shot with knockout intentions and constantly seeks a finish. He has one-shot KO power on the feet and has excellent accuracy and timing. Lopes has fast, powerful kicks and tends to get wild with his striking. Training at Lobo Gym MMA, he has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is dangerous anywhere the fight goes. He has a vicious submission game on top and bottom, constantly transitioning and looking for openings. Lopes has excellent ground and pound on top, which he’ll often use to set up a submission.
(C) Alex Pereira vs. #1 Jiří Procházka
Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Alex Pereira: 10-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Jiří Procházka: 30-4-1, 26 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Pereira has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Middleweight Sean Strickland (29-6-0), #1 ranked Light Heavyweight Jiří Procházka (30-4-1), and #4 ranked Light Heavyweight Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1). He is a former Glory Kickboxing Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion with a pro kickboxing record of 40-7. He is notorious for having the most devastating left hook in combat sports and loves letting it fly. Pereira has just as heavy kicks to back up his heavy hands, which he’ll often use to find his range before getting into the pocket to throw big hooks and devastating knees. He’s comfortable fighting on the outside of the octagon but is most dangerous when he takes the center and cuts off his opponent. Pereira has shown solid takedown defense and continually improving grappling, but still prefers to keep it standing. Training at Teixeira MMA, he doesn’t move a ton on the feet and sometimes stands straight in front of his opponent, waiting for them to throw something so he can fire back.
Procházka has won four of his last five fights and has UFC wins over former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira (33-9-0), #9 ranked Light Heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0), and #14 ranked Light Heavyweight Dominick Reyes (12-4-0). He’s an elusive striker with a unique style and serious power. He has excellent head movement and footwork, never remaining in one spot long and constantly attacking from different angles. Procházka never telegraphs his strikes, always keeping his hands down and throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions. Training at Jetsaam Gym Brno, he’s always coming forward but won’t get sloppy, remaining patient and looking for openings to land strikes. He won’t typically look for takedowns but has solid pressure on top and a great submission game. Procházka hasn’t been to a decision since 2016 and finished his last eleven wins with ten knockouts and one submission.
Best Bets
Anthony Smith Moneyline: One of the more bizarre matchups on the card, this came together on late notice. Dolidze is coming up in weight to fight Smith, usually fighting at Middleweight. Considering Dolidze has a more wrestling-based game, coming up in weight and taking on a potentially bigger, stronger opponent could be a dangerous challenge. Smith is an underrated grappler, possessing a solid submission game and excellent takedown defense. Smith has also gone five rounds multiple times and can handle a grappling-heavy pace for three rounds. Smith should be able to fend off the takedowns and wear out Dolidze to earn a solid victory.
Diego Lopes Moneyline: Another late-notice matchup; this fight was moved from Featherweight to Lightweight recently when Ortega couldn’t make the weight cut. Given the fact that Lopes seems to be the naturally larger fighter, the rise in weight should be to his benefit. Ortega is fantastic on the ground, but Lopes may be one of the few fighters that can match his grappling prowess. I expect these two to have a war on the feet, and with Lopes having the advantage in size and power, he should win most of the exchanges and find a solid victory.
Pereira vs. Procházka Over 1.5 Rounds: We’ve once again been blessed with one of the best matchups in MMA, and I expect an all-out war. Despite that, I expect Procházka to use a more measured, technical style given the outcome of their first fight. Due to this, I expect this fight to last at least to the third round. This is a very rare matchup where no matter who wins, I will be completely satisfied with the result. Thus, I have no desire to pick a winner outright. This will positively be a banger, and I can’t wait to see who takes it.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs Aliskerov
The UFC returns to Saudi Arabia with a stacked Fight Night card. In the co-main event, two heavy-hitting Russian strikers look to settle some personal issues inside the cage when Alexander Volkov takes on Sergei Pavlovich. In the main event, two highly skilled fighters match up on short notice, Robert Whittaker and Ikram Aliskerov. From top to bottom, this card is filled with finishers and fantastic matchups. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
#7 Johnny Walker vs. #9 Volkan Oezdemir
Light Heavyweight Bout
Johnny Walker: 21-8-0, 16 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Volkan Oezdemir: 19-7-0, 12 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Walker has won three of his last five fights with one No Contest and has wins over #8 ranked Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. (14-5-0), #10 ranked Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith (38-19-0), and Ryan Spann (21-10-0). With 17 finishes in the first round, he’s clearly at his most dangerous early on. Although very wild upon his promotional debut, he’s become more technical, preferring to stay at range, primarily using his kicks to land damage. Walker is constantly moving and using feints and is at his best when moving forward and leading the fight, often struggling when put on the back foot. He doesn’t seem interested in getting into brawls anymore and is much better off in a technical kickboxing match than a wild scrap. Training at SBG Ireland, he is enormous at 6’6”, even for a Light Heavyweight, and uses his size and reach to keep out of his opponent’s range and land strikes. Although Walker won’t typically take it to the mat, he has a 100% takedown success rate and a solid submission game.
Oezdemir has won two of his last five outings and holds victories over #4 ranked Light Heavyweight Aleksander Rakic (14-4-0), Paul Craig (17-6-1), and Bogdan Guskov (16-3-0). He has a background in kickboxing and held a 5-0 record professionally before entering MMA. While he primarily uses his hands and fights in the pocket, he has powerful kicks and particularly devastating leg kicks. Despite his phonebox-fighting style, Oezdemir stays relatively composed, usually returning to the center of the octagon and resetting after attacking. Training at Allstars Training Center, he has a solid chin and is willing to eat a shot to land one, but he also possesses good head movement. He occasionally initiates grappling exchanges, primarily preferring to remain on the feet, and has denied 80% of takedowns attempted on him in his UFC career. With 12 finishes in the first round, Oezdemir earned the nickname “No Time” and is at his most dangerous early on.
Shara Magomedov vs. Antonio Troccoli
Middleweight Bout
Shara Magomedov: 12-0-0, 10 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Antonio Troccoli: 12-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Magomedov is undefeated and has a UFC victory over Bruno Silva (23-11-0). He’s a devastating striker with a fantastic arsenal of kicks. He’s constantly moving and switching stances, never remaining in one spot for long. Magomedov is devastating at range, peppering his opponent with lead leg attacks before blitzing in to throw bombs. Training at GOR MMA, he rarely initiates grappling exchanges, often accepting position on his back and throwing strikes. He regularly looks to land spinning attacks, particularly elbows and backfists. Magomedov has three wins within the first minute of the fight and always comes out guns blazing.
Trocoli has won two of his last five bouts with one no-contest and is making his UFC debut. An explosive grappler, he won’t waste much time on the feet before shooting a takedown. He uses his length well on the feet, throwing bombs and long straights before closing the distance. Trocoli has excellent trips and throws inside the clinch and advances position quickly on the ground. He’s efficient in top position, rarely wasting energy or putting himself in bad positions. Training at Full House MMA, he’s constantly hunting for submissions and has excellent chokes and backtakes. Trocoli grinds out his opponents in the first round and heats up as the fight continues, with most of his finishes coming in round two or three.
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Middleweight Bout
Kelvin Gastelum: 18-9-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub,
Daniel Rodriguez: 17-4-0, 8 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Gastelum has won two of his last five fights and has victories over former UFC Middleweight champion Michael Bisping (30-9-0), Chris Curtis (31-11-0), and Jacare Souza (26-10-0). He’s a well-rounded fighter who’s highly durable and comfortable wherever the fight goes. He’s constantly moving and feinting on the feet, never staying in one spot or keeping his head on the centerline for long. Gastelum is willing to eat a shot to land one and has solid power, throwing every shot in combination and with purpose. Training at Fight Ready, he’s averaging about one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and has a black belt in BJJ. He has heavy ground and pound and dangerous chokes, with three of his four submissions coming via rear naked choke. Gastelum has earned eight bonuses in his ten-year promotional tenure and is never in a boring fight, win or lose.
Rodriguez has won three of his last outings and has UFC victories over Mike Perry (14-8-0), Tim Means (33-16-1), and Li Jingliang (19-8-0). He’s an excellent Muay Thai striker who favors kicks over punches. He remains technical throughout the fight, fighting behind his jab and always pushing for a finish without getting sloppy. Training at Syndicate MMA, Rodriguez has great movement and footwork on the feet, attacking from different angles with a variety of strikes. He has exceptionally fast kicks, usually throwing to the legs at the beginning and end of combinations. He’s proven highly durable, regularly surviving in deep waters and finding his way back into fights. Rodriguez is unlikely to initiate grappling but has solid takedown defense and does an excellent job of getting back to his feet where he’s most comfortable.
#3 Sergei Pavlovich vs. #5 Alexander Volkov
Heavyweight Bout
Sergei Pavlovich: 18-2-0, 15 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Alexander Volkov: 37-10-0, 24 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Pavlovich has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Heavyweight Curtis Blaydes (18-4-0), #10 ranked Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa (15-7-0), and #11 ranked Heavyweight Derrick Lewis (28-12-0). One of the most destructive punchers in the sport, he comes out guns blazing, on the hunt for a knockout the second the fight begins. He tends to fight behind his jab and throw in combination, constantly pressuring forward. Pavlovich never throws kicks, always looking to close the distance and let his hands go inside the pocket. Training at American Top Team, he doesn’t need much space to do significant damage and throws everything with bad intentions. He has one-shot knockout power, with all fifteen of his knockouts coming in round one. Pavlovich hasn’t left the first round in nine fights and has the third-highest significant strikes landed per minute in UFC history at 8.21.
Volkov has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #8 ranked Heavyweight Marcin Tybura (25-8-0), #12 ranked Heavyweight Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5-0), and #13 ranked Heavyweight Alexandr Romanov (17-3-0). He is a lengthy, technical striker who can land damage at range or inside. He has solid footwork and head movement, tending to skirt along the outside of the cage while picking his opponents apart. Volkov is highly accurate and throws everything with purpose, always keeping his shots tight and straight. His best weapons are his front kick and right straight, which he’s constantly looking to set up. Training with Strela Team, he’s powerful inside the clinch and uses his length very well, making him particularly hard to take down. Volkov possesses classic heavyweight cardio; he keeps his power across all 15 minutes, but his pace decreases as the fight continues.
#3 Robert Whittaker vs. Ikram Aliskerov
Middleweight Bout
Robert Whittaker: 26-7-0, 10 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Ikram Aliskerov: 15-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Whittaker has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Middleweight Jared Cannonier (17-6-0), #5 ranked Middleweight Marvin Vettori (19-7-1), and #8 ranked Paulo Costa (14-4-0). He is an excellent, technical striker in perpetual motion, constantly bouncing and throwing in combination. Utilizing his karate background, he has fantastic lead leg attacks and throws all his shots tight and straight. Training at PMA Martial Arts, Whittaker varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly and never overextending or getting sloppy. He’s elusive, never staying in one spot for long, and always keeps his head off the centerline. He does an excellent job mixing kicks into combinations, making them extremely hard to predict or see before they land. Whittaker has great cardio and remains composed throughout, easily able to go for 25 minutes.
Aliskerov has won all his last five fights and has a UFC victory over Phil Hawes (12-5-0) and Warlley Alves (15-8-0). He’s a well-rounded, technical fighter who pushes a consistent pace and is always dangerous. He never telegraphs his attacks, fights behind his jab, and throws everything in combination. Training with the KHK MMA Team, Aliskerov is a former world champion in Sambo and has excellent top control, typically holding half guard and landing brutal ground and pound. He passes quickly and has impressive reversals, often denying takedowns and ending up on top. He does most of his damage on the inside with his punches but has heavy kicks and well-timed knees. Aliskerov has one-shot knockout power and has finished four of his last five fights.
Best Bets
Johnny Walker Moneyline: This is one of the more interesting matchups on the card. Although Walker has reigned in his style significantly, he’s vastly more wild than the highly technical Oezdemir. They have extremely opposing styles and paces, with Walker pushing a frenetic pace while Oezdemir is more comfortable in a slower pace, technical kickboxing match. Oezdemir has struggled when pushed hard, and that’s exactly what I expect Walker’s gameplan to be. Walker should stay in his face from the opening bell, and if he does, he should secure a finish.
Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO: There is some personal beef involved in this fight, which always increases the intensity inside the cage. Considering both already push a very heavy pace, I can’t imagine the intensity when they both collide in the octagon. With that said, a wild brawl is definitely to the benefit of Pavlovich. He has the power advantage over nearly anyone in the division, and likely doesn’t have to concern himself with defending takedowns in this matchup. Assuming Volkov uses his typical striking style, Pavlovich should be able to get past the kicks and lengthy striking and do what he does best: land bombs inside the pocket. If he gets his hands going early as he tends to do, I don’t think Volkov will be able to weather the storm for long.
Robert Whittaker Moneyline: Due to the short-notice scheduling of this bout, neither man had much time to prepare for each other. While Aliskerov is an exceptional fighter, this will be just his third appearance in the UFC. He’s had two fantastic performances, but wasn’t facing the highest-level competition, certainly not the caliber of Whittaker. This is a similar situation to Benoit Saint Denis facing Dustin Poirier: while highly talented, he simply wasn’t ready for that significant of a jump up the rankings. Whittaker is a perennial title contender and has been consistently facing the best of the best for a long time. Whittaker is on a higher level, and I expect him to back that up with an impressive victory on Saturday.
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov Preview
The UFC hits Louisville, Kentucky with an outstanding Fight Night card. In the co-main event, two exciting power punchers collide when Dominick Reyes takes on Dustin Jacoby. In the main event, a quickly rising star, Nassourdine Imavov, faces off against a perennial title contender, Jared Cannonier. The entire card is loaded with great matchups and exciting fighters all looking to earn a highlight-reel victory. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Miguel Baeza vs. Punahele Soriano
Welterweight Bout
Miguel Baeza: 10-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Punahele Soriano: 9-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Baeza has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Takashi Sato (16-7-0), Hector Aldana (4-4-0), and Matt Brown (26-19-0). He’s a dangerous, technical striker with a slick submission game. He stays patient on the feet, chipping away with low kicks while looking for openings to land power shots. Baeza varies his shots well, attacking the head, body, and legs constantly. Training at MMA Masters, he’s defended 100% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC and can find submissions quickly on the mat. If he chooses to initiate a grappling exchange, he won’t waste much time on ground and pound, averaging nearly two submission attempts per fifteen minutes. He’s been awarded a bonus in all his UFC victories and always seeks another highlight victory.
Soriano has won one of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Dusko Todorovic (12-4-0), Oskar Piechota (11-3-1), and Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0). He has devastating power in his hands and can produce a flash knockout, with seven of his nine wins coming in the first round. He’s at his most dangerous inside the pocket, throwing massive hooks and letting his hands go. Soriano occasionally mixes in kicks when he leaves the pocket, mainly to the head or body. He’s constantly coming forward and pressuring his opponent, keeping them moving backward while he throws bombs. Training at Xtreme Couture, he loves to headhunt on the feet but has also shown some solid wrestling to complement his striking. Soriano started his career as a Heavyweight and still possesses that power at 185 pounds.
Julian Marquez vs. Zach Reese
Middleweight Bout
Julian Marquez: 9-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Zach Reese: 6-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Marquez has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Sam Alvey (34-18-1), Darren Stewart (16-10-0), and Maki Pitolo (15-11-0). He’s a well-rounded brawler who’s always looking to push the action. He’s constantly coming forward, pressuring his opponent, and crashing into the pocket to throw big, looping hooks. Marquez has not attempted a takedown in UFC but is averaging over two submission attempts per fifteen minutes, often finding submissions defensively. He never accepts position on the ground, always looking to improve and find a finish, usually a choke. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, he tends to headhunt and throw every shot with knockout intentions. Marquez has scored all of his UFC finishes in round two or three and can survive in deep waters.
Reese has won four of his last five fights and is looking to score his first UFC victory. He’s a well-rounded prospect with impressive power and excellent submissions. He uses a very upright stance and comes out guns blazing, blasting his opponent with heavy kicks before blitzing into the pocket with punches. Reese looks to overwhelm his opponent early, using both power and volume to back his opponent up. He has excellent clinch takedowns and can quickly find submissions on top and off his back. Training at W4R Training Center, he has excellent top control, heavy ground and pound, and won’t accept position on the ground. Every fight of Reese’s brief career has ended in the first round, only reaching the second minute of the round once.
Brunno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
Middleweight Bout
Brunno Ferreira: 11-1-0, 8 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Dustin Stoltzfus: 15-5-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Ferreira has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Gregory Rodrigues (15-5-0) and Phil Hawes (12-6-0). He is an explosive striker with one-shot knockout power. He’s constantly feinting, switching stances, looking for openings, and attacking from different angles. Ferreira has finished all eleven wins, with just two of his career outings seeing a second round. Training at Evolucao Thai, he prefers power to volume and has excellent head movement along with big-time power in both hands. A true brawler, he regularly attempts risky maneuvers like Superman punches and spinning kicks. Ferreira is willing to grapple and usually takes the fight to the mat via vicious slam takedowns before unleashing hellacious ground-and-pound. He’s very active on the ground and will never accept a position, constantly trying to advance and secure a finish.
Stoltzfus has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Dwight Grant (11-6-0) and Punahele Soriano (9-4-0). He’s a solid wrestler with impressive power who’s always willing to engage in the pocket. He won’t rush on the feet, favoring power to volume and tending to throw kicks at range. Stoltzfus has good distance management and is always coming forward, often using his striking to close the distance and pursue takedowns. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is capable of brutal slams. Training at Frankers Fight Team, he advances quickly on top and has solid top pressure, not letting his opponent out from under him. Stoltzfus has heavy ground and pound and a slick submission game, holding a victory via twister on his record.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios
Bantamweight Bout
Raul Rosas Jr.: 8-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Ricky Turcios: 13-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Rosas Jr. has won four of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Jay Perrin (11-8-0) and Terrence Mitchell (14-4-0). He’s a dangerous submission artist with excellent wrestling and BJJ. He’s averaging over three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is very active on top, constantly pursuing submissions and advancing position. Rosas Jr. was the youngest debuting fighter in UFC history, debuting at 18 years old in 2022. Training at 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu, he pushes a heavy pace on the ground and always finds his way to his opponent’s back, where he’s most dangerous. He has solid power in his hands but typically won’t waste much time before shooting in for a takedown. Rosas Jr. has an excellent arsenal of submissions and is unpredictable on the ground.
Turcios has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Kevin Natividad (9-4-0) and Brady Hiestand (8-2-0). The victor of The Ultimate Fighter season 29, he’s a well-rounded scrapper who is excellent at creating chaos. He comes out guns blazing, pushing the pace from the starting bell and making his opponent fight his style of fight. Training at Gracie Barra Woodlands, Turcios is extremely fluid on his back and has an incredible ability to find his way to top position. He excels in deep waters, constantly sweeping, scrambling, and transitioning between submission attempts. Averaging one takedown landed per fifteen minutes; he uses his striking to close the distance and pursue takedowns. He’s more than willing to eat a shot to land one and always makes his fights wild, wherever they end up.
#15 Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby
Light Heavyweight Bout
Dominick Reyes: 12-4-0, 7 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Dustin Jacoby: 19-8-1, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Reyes has won one of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Middleweight Jared Cannonier (17-6-0), #9 ranked Light Heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0), and Chris Weidman (16-7-0). He is a lengthy striker who pursues a knockout from the opening bell, with all of his finishes coming in round one. Training at Teixeira MMA, he often opens up with a barrage of heavy kicks, both high and low, and can damage at range and in the pocket. Despite Reyes’ tendency to find an early finish, he doesn’t push a crazy pace, typically fading as the fight continues. He has excellent takedown defense, having defended 80% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC, and he won’t accept position on the mat. He has decent wrestling but tends to resort to it when he’s hurt, and he has only landed two takedowns in his UFC career. Reyes can find a finish without much volume, holding four victories in the promotion in which he landed 20 or less significant strikes.
Jacoby has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Da Woon Jung (15-5-1), Michael Oleksiejczuk (19-8-0), and Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-5-0). He is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 18-8-0, spending time in the premier kickboxing promotion Glory. His experience is visible in his fighting style, possessing excellent footwork and movement, as well as a great variety of attacks. Jacoby is effective both at range and in the pocket but tends to stay at distance where he can use his arsenal of kicks and combinations. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, his hands seemingly never stop moving, and he is always feinting or throwing punches. He has solid output for a Light Heavyweight but also has excellent cardio, never overexerting himself and keeping the same pace for all 15 minutes. Jacoby is willing to grapple and will occasionally shoot for a takedown but primarily prefers to keep it on the feet where he’s most dangerous.
#4 Jared Cannonier vs. #7 Nassourdine Imavov
Middleweight Bout
Jared Cannonier: 17-6-0, 10 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Nassourdine Imavov: 13-4-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Cannonier has found victory in four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Middleweight Sean Strickland (29-6-0), #5 ranked Middleweight Marvin Vettori (19-7-1), and #9 ranked Middleweight Jack Hermansson (24-8-0). He has fought at Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight in his promotional tenure and carries that Heavyweight power at 185 pounds. He throws everything with fight-ending intentions, constantly pressuring forward and always willing to eat a shot to land one. Cannonier has excellent footwork and regularly switches stances, typically opening up his combinations with his jab. Training at MMA LAB, Cannonier is fantastic at moving in and out of the pocket and usually won’t stay at range for long, often throwing damaging leg kicks when outside of the pocket. What he lacks in volume, he makes up for in power, and his pace increases as the fight continues. Cannonier is unlikely to take the fight to the mat but can land devastating ground and pound if he gets top position.
Imavov has won three of his last five outings with one no-contest and has UFC victories over #11 ranked Middleweight Roman Dolidze (12-3-0), Joaquin Buckley (19-6-0), and Edmen Shahbazyan (13-4-0). He utilizes a fluid kickboxing style on the feet, fighting behind his jab and throwing every shot with power. He constantly comes forward and has excellent distance management, and although he favors power to volume, he won’t telegraph shots or get wild. Imavov has excellent takedown defense and averages just over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes. He advances position exceptionally quickly on the mat, constantly raining down ground and pound and wearing down his opponent. He won’t force submissions, typically focusing on landing damage, but will pursue chokes if the opportunity is presented. Imavov has excellent technical skills but can get emotional in the cage and be drawn into a brawl.
Best Bets
Julian Marquez Moneyline: This matchup is a classic case of the sprinter vs. the marathon runner. Reese pushes a heavy pace and is yet to see a second round in his career, whereas Marquez tends to weather the storm and heat up as the fight continues. Although both methods have proven effective for each fighter, Marquez is much more experienced and tenured. Although Marquez is on a two-fight skid, Reese does not possess the power or technicality of his previous two opponents. Assuming Marquez does what he does best and survives the early storm, I expect a solid bounce-back victory for him.
Brunno Ferreira by KO/TKO: Another matchup of contrasting styles, we have a brawler facing a wrestler. Ferreira loves to push the pace and throw bombs; Stoltzfus would rather pick his shots and find takedowns. Despite this, Ferreira is the more skilled, technical fighter on the feet and won’t waste much time looking for openings. I expect Ferreira to push the action from the opening bell, backing up Stoltzfus until he eventually finds the finishing blow and scores yet another knockout victory.
Nassourdine Imavov Moneyline: This is by far the closest matchup on the card. Imavov is a hot prospect with a well-rounded style, whereas Cannonier is an experienced veteran with a striking-based approach. When placed in a similar stylistic matchup against Joaquin Buckley, Imavov did an excellent job staying on the front foot and controlling the pace. This forward pressure is critical; if you can force power punchers to back up constantly, generating their typical explosiveness is much more challenging. He also has the option to grapple, something Cannonier is unlikely to initiate. I expect Imavov to use all his skills, blending his striking and grappling, to defeat Cannonier and insert himself into the title picture.
UFC 302 Preview
The UFC returns to the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, with a fantastic pay-per-view card. In the co-main event, two dangerous Middleweight title contenders collide when Sean Strickland takes on Paulo Costa. In the main event, a true legend, Dustin Poirier, makes a final run at gold against the pound-for-pound #1 fighter, Islam Makhachev. This card is loaded with ranked fighters, rising contenders, and established veterans, all vying for a big win under the big lights. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Welterweight Bout
Randy Brown: 18-5-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos: 24-7-1, 14 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Brown has won four of his last five fights, with wins over Khaos Williams (14-3-0), Francisco Trinaldo (28-9-0), and Muslim Salikhov (19-5-0). He’s a lengthy fighter, constantly throwing combinations at range and adding body kicks at the end of his combinations. He’ll often string together long, technical punch combinations without overextending himself. Brown has solid power in both hands and devastating clinch striking, particularly his knees. Averaging just under a takedown landed per fifteen minutes, he does an excellent job mixing grappling into his striking, often using his length in the clinch to get his opponent to the mat. He has solid top control and a slick submission game, especially his chokes. Training at Kings MMA, Brown is more than willing to eat a shot to land one and can be drawn into a brawl.
Zaleski dos Santos has won three of his last five outings with one draw and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Middleweight Sean Strickland (28-6-0), #13 ranked Lightweight Benoit Saint Denis (13-2-0), and Abubakar Nurmagomedov (17-4-1). A well-rounded scrapper, he has significant power in his strikes and can produce flashy finishes. A lifetime Capoeira practitioner, he has a fantastic kicking game, regularly mixing them in at the end of combinations without telegraphing. Zaleski dos Santos can damage from range or inside the pocket, blasting kicks from distance before blitzing in with hooks and overhands. Training at CM System, he’s strong in the clinch and very tough to control. He’s defended 68% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC and will often attempt chokes when sprawling. Zaleski dos Santos has picked up nine of his fifteen knockouts in round one but carries his power throughout.
Niko Price vs. Alex Morono
Welterweight Bout
Niko Price: 15-7-0, 10 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Alex Morono: 24-9-0, 6 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Price has won one of his last five bouts with one draw and has UFC victories over Tim Means (33-16-1), Alex Oliveira (25-15-1), and Randy Brown (18-5-0). He’s a gritty scrapper, always willing to exchange in the pocket, and is comfortable anywhere the fight goes. He’s constantly looking to close the distance, regularly blitzing in with wide hooks and looping shots. Price fights behind his jab and uses his striking to set up his grappling, striking into the clinch before pursuing takedowns. Training at Roufusport, he has heavy top control and will constantly work on the ground, never accepting position. He’s very tough to control and has a dangerous guard, constantly throwing up submissions off his pack to get out of danger. Price has only seen the judges score cards three times in his career and always pushes a heavy pace.
Morono has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Donald Cerrone (36-17-0), Matthew Semelsberger (11-7-0), and Court McGee (22-13-0). He is exceptionally well-rounded, holding black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Taekwondo. He keeps his guard high and remains technical throughout, always fighting behind his jab and throwing in combination. He has excellent footwork and head movement, often just getting out of the way of strikes and regularly ducking his head to slip and counter. Morono has solid cardio and always pushes a heavy pace, having landed 90 or more significant strikes in a fight six times in the UFC. Training at Fortis MMA, he won’t often initiate grappling exchanges but has a slick submission game and is dangerous on the mat. He's very dangerous early, with eleven of his twelve career finishes coming in round one.
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Middleweight Bout
Kevin Holland: 25-11-0, 13 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Michael Oleksiejczuk: 19-7-0, 14 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Holland has won two of his last five fights and has wins over #11 ranked Welterweight Joaquin Buckley (19-6-0), #14 ranked Middleweight Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0), and Michael Chiesa (18-7-0). Willing to engage the fight anywhere, he’s dangerous at all times and is constantly pursuing a finish. He’s an aggressive striker, throwing everything in combination and always willing to brawl. Holland does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket, although he has no problem hanging close to exchange on the inside. Training at Travis Lutter BJJ, he tends to throw kicks at range, using his kicks to set up his hands, often throwing kicks naked or at the start of a combination. He pushes a consistent pace throughout the fight, always coming forward and pushing the action. Holland is averaging 70 significant strikes landed in his last five fights and is always pursuing a finish.
Oleksiejczuk has won three of his last five outings, with wins over Chidi Njokuani (23-10-0), Gian Villante (17-14-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0). He is an aggressive striker who is always coming forward and throwing combinations. He has an excellent chin and considerable power in his hands, regularly entering the pocket to throw damaging, looping hooks. Oleksiejczuk has excellent head movement and footwork, never wastes energy, and throws everything with purpose. Training at Ankos MMA, he won’t stay at range long and virtually never throws kicks, mainly using his hands to land damage. Eleven of his fifteen career finishes have come inside the first round, so he’s definitely at his most dangerous early. Oleksiejczuk holds the center well and does a great job cutting off the cage, always stalking his opponents and looking for openings to throw big combinations.
#1 Sean Strickland vs. #7 Paulo Costa
Middleweight Bout
Sean Strickland: 28-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Paulo Costa: 14-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Strickland has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Middleweight Israel Adesanya (24-3-0), #8 ranked Middleweight Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0), and #9 ranked Middleweight Jack Hermansson (24-8-0). He’s an excellent striker, constantly coming forward and letting his hands go. While he prefers to keep the fight standing, he’s willing to grapple, averaging just under one takedown landed per fifteen minutes. Strickland also has solid takedown defense, defending 77% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He uses a very upright boxing style on the feet, throwing every shot with purpose and in combination. He pushes a heavy pace throughout, landing, on average, 145 significant strikes in his last five fights. Training at Millenia MMA, Strickland tries to keep his opponent on the back foot as much as possible to open up opportunities to land strikes, especially his one-two.
Costa has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Yoel Romero (16-7-0), Uriah Hall (18-11-0), and Luke Rockhold (16-6-0). He is best known for his devastating power, having won 11 of his first twelve career fights by knockout. He possesses power in both his hands and kicks and is capable of a one-shot KO at any time. Costa has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but rarely goes to the ground and hasn’t attempted a single submission in the UFC. Training with the Pitbull Brothers, he is at his best when pressuring forward, throwing bombs and powerful kicks, especially to the body. He is more than willing to eat a shot to land one, absorbing an almost equal amount of significant strikes as he lands per minute. Costa slows as the fight continues and will take more risks the deeper the fight goes.
(C) Islam Makhachev vs. #4 Dustin Poirier
Lightweight Title Bout
Islam Makhachev: 25-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Dustin Poirier: 30-8-0, 16 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Makhachev is on a thirteen-fight win streak, with wins coming over #1 ranked Featherweight Alex Volkanovski (26-4-0), #2 ranked Lightweight Charles Oliveira (34-10-0), and #11 ranked Lightweight Dan Hooker (23-12-0). He is a commanding wrestler who wastes little time taking it to the mat and pursuing a finish. Training at American Kickboxing Academy, he prefers grappling but is a solid striker, landing with 60% of his significant strikes while defending 61% of those attempted on him. Makhachev averages over three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, using the now-famous Dagestani style of controlling and dominating his opponent against the cage. He relentlessly pursues a finish from top position and can easily control an opponent for five rounds. He has top-notch cardio and can grapple or strike for twenty-five minutes, never truly being out of a fight. Makhachev has finished six of his last seven opponents and seems to constantly improve.
Poirier has won three of his last five fights and has wins over #2 ranked Featherweight Max Holloway (26-7-0), #3 ranked Lightweight Justin Gaethje (25-5-0), and #6 ranked Lightweight Michael Chandler (23-8-0). He’s been in the UFC for over a decade and has established himself as one of the best boxers in the sport, possessing power and speed in both hands. He pushes a heavy pace, is always willing to eat one to land one, and throws everything with purpose. Along with his exceptional boxing, he holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, making him dangerous everywhere. Training at American Top Team, he’s averaging over one takedown landed and over one submission attempted per fifteen minutes in his UFC tenure. Poirier is a true veteran, having fought nearly every significant name at Featherweight and Lightweight, and he can finish a fight from anywhere.
Best Bets
Kevin Holland by KO/TKO: Holland is one of the rare fighters in the UFC that seems unaffected by wins and losses. Win or lose, he will put on a show, and fans will love him regardless. Considering that, I don’t take much stock in his recent two-fight skid. Both losses were to high-level opponents, much higher level than Oleksiejczuk. Oleksiejczuk is dangerous; he pushes the action, has big-time power, and is always coming forward. Despite this, Holland has a definite advantage in his speed and footwork, as well as his height and reach. I believe he’ll be able to avoid Oleksiejczuk’s power shots and secure another highlight victory.
Sean Strickland by Decision: This is an excellent matchup of nearly opposite strikers. Strickland uses technical forward pressure, whereas Costa would rather have a wild brawl. Although Costa is one of the most potent strikers in the weight class, his brawling tendencies have been detrimental when facing more technical fighters like Whittaker, Vettori, or Adesanya. Strickland will remain technical regardless of the pace Costa pushes, and in a five-round fight, that’s crucial. I expect Costa to come out guns blazing and for Strickland to weather the storm to a decision victory.
Islam Makhachev by Submission: Like most people, I would love to see Poirier finally realize a title. Unfortunately, I’m not letting myself give in to delusion. As talented and well-rounded as Poirier is, Makhachev is the #1 pound-for-pound fighter for a reason. Along with his stellar grappling, his striking seems to be ever-improving, and he’s been securing more finishes in the title picture than he did at the start of his UFC career. I expect some close exchanges on the feet, but it’s only a matter of time before Makhachev attempts and secures a takedown, and that’s typically the beginning of the end. When the fight hits the mat, I expect Makachev to pursue the finish immediately, ultimately securing a submission victory and yet another title defense.
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy Preview
The UFC returns to their home-base, the Apex, with a fantastic Fight Night card. In the co-main event, two of the most exciting, unpredictable fighters in the Welterweight division collide when Khaos Williams takes on Carlston Harris. In the main event, a legend of the sport, Edson Barboza, takes on surging prospect Lerone Murphy. The card is stacked from top to bottom with excellent matchups that are sure to be fireworks. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
#9 Luana Pinheiro vs. #12 Angela Hill
Women’s Strawweight
Luana Pinheiro: 11-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Angela Hill: 16-13-0, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Pinheiro has won four of her last five fights and has UFC victories over #13 ranked Strawweight Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12-0), Sam Hughes (8-6-0), and Randa Markos (11-12-1). She’s aggressive on the feet, looking to blitz into the pocket and land hooks. She throws every shot with power and rarely throws kicks, doing most of her damage on the inside with her hands. Pinheiro has a black belt in Judo and possesses excellent clinch takedowns and throws. Training at Nova Uniao, she’ll often control her opponent in the clinch before taking them down to land significant ground and pound or a submission. She’s averaging nearly three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has excellent top pressure. Pinheiro’s seven career finishes came in the first round, making her most dangerous early on.
Hill has won three of her last five outings and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Strawweight Loopy Godinez (12-4-0), Ariane Carnelosi (14-3-0), and Maryna Moroz (11-6-0). She is one of the most experienced and active veterans on the roster, and there’s nearly no spot in a fight she hasn’t been in. A former kickboxer with a professional record of 16-0, she’s an excellent technical striker with a gritty Muay Thai style. Hill pushes a heavy pace, landing, on average, 86 significant strikes in her last five fights. Training at Alliance MMA, she’s exceptionally durable, always willing to eat a shot to land one, and constantly pressuring forward. She’s willing to grapple, possessing solid wrestling both offensively and defensively. Hill has never been knocked out in her career and heats up as the fight continues.
Adrian Yanez vs. Vinicus Salvador
Bantamweight Bout
Adrian Yanez: 16-4-0, 10 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Vinicus Salvador: 14-6-0, 13 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Yanez has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Davey Grant (15-7-0), Tony Kelley (8-3-0), and Randy Costa (7-4-0). He’s an excellent technical boxer who pushes a consistent pace and always pursues a knockout. He fights behind his jab, throwing everything with purpose and accuracy but never loading up. Yanez constantly presses forward, throwing from different angles and varying his attacks. Training at Metro Fight Club, he has not attempted a takedown in the UFC but has a black belt in BJJ and has defended 100% of takedowns attempted on him. He always throws in combination, typically doing most of his work with his hands, rarely throwing kicks. Yanez has been awarded five post-fight bonuses in just seven UFC appearances and is never in a boring fight.
Salvador has won three of his last five outings and is looking to score his first UFC victory. He’s a very loose, fluid striker with an unorthodox style. He tends to keep his hands down before throwing power shots with knockout intentions. Salvador constantly blitzes forward with wide, looping hooks, doing a good job of mixing in body shots as well. He pushes a heavy pace from the opening bell, always coming out guns blazing. Training with the Ribas Family, he won't typically initiate grappling exchanges but has excellent clinch striking, particularly his knees. Salvador is always looking to start a brawl and loves to let his hands go in the pocket.
Themba Gorimbo vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
Welterweight Bout
Themba Gorimbo: 12-4-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Ramiz Brahimaj: 10-4-0, 0 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Gorimbo has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Pete Rodriguez (5-2-0) and Takashi Sato (16-7-0). He’s a tenacious grappler constantly looking to get the fight to the mat and find a finish. He’s averaging over three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is willing to work hard along the fence to secure them. He’s always working to improve and reach an advantageous spot, whether in the top or bottom position. Training at MMA Masters, his grappling sets up his striking, and he has solid power in his hands. He has heavy top pressure and is fantastic at finding his way to his opponent’s back. Gorimbo is most dangerous early on but will push a consistent pace throughout.
Brahimaj has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Micheal Gillmore (6-5-0) and Sasha Palatnikov (8-5-0). He is an explosive grappler who wastes little time on his feet. He’ll typically shoot right away, often landing slam takedowns, averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes in the UFC. Brahimaj advances position at lightning speed and always looks for his opponent’s neck, with nine of his ten submissions coming via choke. Training at Fortis MMA, he greatly prefers submissions to ground and pound, landing either one or zero significant strikes in both UFC wins. He has excellent top pressure and always works for a finish on the mat. He’s at his most dangerous early on, with nine of his ten finishes coming in round one, and tends to fade as the fight continues.
Khaos Williams vs. Carlston Harris
Welterweight Bout
Khaos Williams: 14-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Carlston Harris: 19-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Williams has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Alex Morono (24-9-0), Matthew Semelsberger (11-7-0), and Rolando Bedoya (14-3-0). He’s a lengthy striker with brutal knockout power. He pushes a heavy pace, averaging nearly six significant strikes landed per minute, and will constantly blitz forward to unload combinations. Training at Murcielago MMA, Williams has not attempted a takedown in his promotional tenure but has defended 80% of the takedowns attempted on him. He throws everything in combination and with knockout intentions, constantly pressuring forward. He does most of his work with his punches, occasionally mixing in kicks when at range. William’s first two UFC fights both lasted 30 seconds or less, and he pushes a heavy pace throughout the fight.
Harris has won all four of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Impa Kasanganay (16-4-0), Jeremiah Wells (12-4-1), and Jared Gooden (23-9-0). He has serious power in his hands, utilizing an efficient kickboxing style with devastating kicks to match his punches. Along with his power, he’s exceptionally fast, both in his footwork and strikes, and always pursues a finish. Harris has a slick submission game to back up his striking and solid takedown defense. Training at Renovocao Fight Team, he loves anaconda and d’arce chokes, regularly sprawling on a takedown and locking in either choke. He can find a finish anywhere, often securing submissions via defensive grappling, rarely shooting for takedowns. Harris has only gone to decision twice in his last ten fights and fights with a “kill or be killed” attitude.
#12 Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy
Featherweight Bout
Edson Barboza: 24-11-0, 14 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Lerone Murphy: 13-0-1, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Barboza has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #7 ranked Lightweight Beneil Dariush (22-6-1), #11 ranked Lightweight Dan Hooker (23-12-0), and #15 ranked Featherweight Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0). He is one of the most respected, dangerous strikers in the UFC and has been in the promotion since 2010. He has arguably the most devastating kicks in the UFC, holding multiple finishes via leg and spinning kicks. Barboza never telegraphs or overextends, remaining technical throughout and always throwing in combination. Training at American Top Team, he has the fourth most knockdowns in UFC history and throws everything with impressive speed and power. He rarely takes the fight to the mat but has defended 75% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Barboza is always dangerous and can produce a seemingly out-of-nowhere highlight reel knockout with ease.
Murphy is undefeated and has UFC victories over Josh Culibao (11-3-1), Makwan Amirkhani (17-10-0), and Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-5-0). He’s a well-rounded scrapper with solid power in his hands. He’s in perpetual motion, constantly feinting and staying at range before blitzing in with looping hooks and overhands. Murphy is patient on the feet, finding openings before throwing combinations and never loading up. He is averaging over one takedown landed and nearly one submission attempted per fifteen minutes. Training at Manchester Top Team, he’s strong in the clinch, never accepts position on the mat, and has excellent scrambles. Murphy’s striking sets up his grappling and vice versa, and he’s never predictable inside the cage.
Best Bets
Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO: Initially, Yanez appeared to be one of the most promising prospects in the Bantamweight division but has recently suffered back-to-back losses and needs a big win. This matchup seems perfect for what he’s looking for; Salvador is very loose and wild, attempting unorthodox attacks and fighting with his hands down. This matchup is ideal for a technical, pressuring striker like Yanez, and I expect him to find Salvador’s chin early and often.
Themba Gorimbo Moneyline: One of the closer matchups on the card; both are excellent grapplers with differing styles. While Brahimaj is a marauder always hunting for an early finish, Gorimbo grinds out his opponent and wears them down over time. Although both of their strong suits are grappling, I believe Gorimbo has the edge on the mat. In Brahimaj’s UFC tenure, he excelled when facing less experienced opponents but struggled when facing veteran grapplers like Court McGee. While Gorimbo is by no means a veteran, he is an excellent grappler and has solid striking as well. Unless Brahimaj secures an early finish, he will be in big trouble by the third or even second round. I expect Gorimbo to out-grapple and out-pace Brahimaj to a victory.
Edson Barboza Moneyline: I was slightly surprised upon seeing Barboza as the underdog in this bout. Murphy is undoubtedly an excellent fighter, but nothing jumped off the screen at me when watching his fights. He isn’t wildly powerful or exceptionally technical, nor is he a particularly dominant grappler: his most impressive skill is blending his abilities together. Unfortunately for him, he’s going against one of the most devastating strikers ever. He has not faced anyone near the experience or skill of Barboza, nor has he ever gone five rounds. Barboza proved in his last outing he still has a solid chin, and I believe he’ll push a pace Murphy won’t be able to match. I expect an impressive win and for Barboza to continue moving up the ranks of the 145-pound division.
UFC 301 Preview
This Saturday, the UFC journeys to Rio de Janeiro to host another fantastic pay-per-view card. In the co-main event, one of the greatest to ever do it, Jose Aldo, returns to take on the burning-hot Jonathan Martinez. In the main event, Flyweight’s newest king looks to earn another title defense against a quickly rising star when Alexandre Pantoja takes on Steve Erceg. From top to bottom, there are fantastic matchups packed full of rising prospects and established veterans, all looking for a highlight win. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
#13 Paul Craig vs. #14 Caio Borralho
Middleweight Bout
Paul Craig: 17-7-1, 4 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.
Caio Borralho: 15-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Craig has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Light Heavyweight Magomed Ankalaev (19-1-1), #3 ranked Light Heavyweight Jamahal Hill (12-2-0), and #6 ranked Light Heavyweight Nikita Krylov (30-9-0). He’s one of the most accomplished grapplers in the UFC, holding the UFC Light Heavyweight record for triangles with four and the second most Performance of the Night bonuses ever, with 8. He’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and is comfortable anywhere on the ground, whether on his back or on top. Training at Higher Level Martial Arts, Craig is highly experienced and always remains calm and technical on the ground, never rushing or putting himself in dangerous spots. On the feet, he tends to throw kicks at range and looks to close the distance and get the fight to the mat. He finds submissions quickly on top and bottom and is very tough to get away from on the ground. Craig is highly durable and can find submissions even in the deepest waters.
Borralho is undefeated since 2015 and has UFC wins over Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-7-0), Makhmud Muradov (26-8-0), and Abus Magomedov (25-6-1). He is a well-rounded fighter with technical striking and a slick submission game. On the feet, he’s constantly moving and is very elusive, landing, on average, nearly twice as many significant strikes per minute than he absorbs. Training with the Fighting Nerds, Borralho looks to land kicks at range before entering the pocket to land powerful hooks. On the mat, he has excellent top pressure, great sweeps, and constantly pursues a finish. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is very explosive, often landing takedowns in open space. Borralho has excellent cardio and pushes a heavy pace throughout the fight, making him dangerous at all times.
Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria
Middleweight Bout
Michel Pereira: 30-11-0, 11 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Ihor Potieria: 21-5-0, 10 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Michel Pereira comes into this bout having won three of his last five and has UFC victories over Niko Price (15-5-0), Khaos Williams (13-2-0), and Danny Roberts (18-5-0). One of the most unique fighters in the UFC, he’s known for his wild antics within the cage. Training with Scorpion Fighting System, he’s always willing to get wild, throwing open-hand slaps, jumping knees and kicks, and even backflips. Pereira’s unorthodox style makes him both elusive and impossible to predict. He has reigned in his style in recent fights, using a much more measured, accurate approach, fighting much more efficiently with improved cardiovascular endurance. He’s averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes, has heavy ground and pound, and dangerous submissions, particularly chokes. Pereira always pushes a heavy pace and constantly pursues a finish, wherever the fight lands.
Potieria has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Shogun Rua (27-14-1) and Robert Bryczek (17-6-0). He’s a wild striker with an awkward style, throwing everything with power and always pursuing a finish. He’s at his most dangerous early, with seventeen of his 26 career bouts ending in round one. Potieria uses a karate-like stance, keeping his hands low and throwing plenty of single shots and naked kicks. He’s always looking to close the distance and will attack from various angles, often blitzing forward to throw combinations. He has power in both hands and tends to headhunt, throwing lunging straights and overhands while entering the pocket. Potieria always comes forward, often throwing caution to the wind and eating shots to get inside.
#10 Anthony Smith vs. #15 Vitor Petrino
Light Heavyweight Bout
Anthony Smith: 37-19-0, 19 KO/TKO, 14 Sub.
Vitor Petrino: 11-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Smith has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #9 ranked Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0), #11 ranked Ryan Spann (21-10-0), and Alexander Gustafsson (18-8-0). A well-rounded veteran, he’s highly durable and always pushes a consistent pace. He throws everything with power but remains technical throughout, always keeping his hands high and his shots straight. Smith fights behind his jab, never telegraphs or loads up, and constantly looks to close the distance and let his hands go. He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has solid takedowns and top control. Training at FactoyX Muay Thai, he’s patient on top, looking for submission openings without putting himself in dangerous positions. Smith is rarely in a boring fight and always leaves everything in the cage, holding six Performance of the Night bonuses.
Petrino is undefeated and has UFC victories over Tyson Pedro (10-5-0), Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0). He’s an explosive fighter with devastating power and great grappling. He’s constantly coming forward, typically headhunting and throwing single shots, with enough power in both hands to produce a one-shot KO. Training at CM System, Petrino is at his most dangerous early on, constantly throwing overhands and hooks, favoring power to technique. He is averaging nearly four takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and can be a bit of a panic wrestler, resorting to grappling when he’s losing the striking exchanges. He has heavy top control and brutal ground and pound, averaging about one submission attempt per fifteen minutes. Petrino has surprisingly decent cardio and can push a consistent pace throughout the fight.
#13 Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo
Bantamweight Bout
Jonathan Martinez: 19-4-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Jose Aldo: 31-8-0, 17 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Martinez is on a six-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Cub Swanson (29-13-0), Said Nurmagomedov (18-3-0), and Adrian Yanez (16-4-0). He’s an excellent striker with a diverse kicking game. He constantly throws with his left leg, often opening combinations with kicks and throwing everything with power. Martinez varies his shots well, attacking the head, body, and legs while remaining technical throughout. Training at MTZ Fight Club, he can land damage at range or in the pocket, possessing brutal elbows and knees. He won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges but has solid top pressure, ground and pound, and takedown defense. Eight of Martinez’s nine knockouts have come after round one, and he heats up as the fight continues.
Aldo returns from retirement with wins in three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Bantamweight Chito Vera (23-9-1), #8 ranked Bantamweight Rob Font (20-8-0), and #10 ranked Lightweight Renato Moicano (19-5-1). Widely considered the Featherweight GOAT, he is a legend of the sport, holding eight victories in title fights and two decades of experience. He’s an excellent technical striker who throws everything with power and in combination. Training at Novo Uniao, Aldo utilizes a mix of devastating leg kicks and punch combinations to batter his opponent. He is one of the best defensive wrestlers of all time and has defended 91% of takedowns attempted on him, dating back to his time in the WEC. He has excellent submissions, heavy ground and pound, and smothering top pressure when the fight goes to the mat. Aldo is one of the most vicious strikers in the sport's history and always hunts for a finish.
(C) Alexandre Pantoja vs. #10 Steve Erceg
Flyweight Title Bout
Alexandre Pantoja: 27-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Steve Erceg: 12-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Pantoja has won all of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Flyweight Brandon Royval (16-7-0), #2 ranked Flyweight Brandon Moreno (21-8-2), and #5 ranked Flyweight Alex Perez (25-8-0). He’s a fast starter and an exceptionally well-rounded fighter with solid power in his hands. He’s constantly pressuring forward, throwing everything in combination, and varying his strikes well, attacking the head and body evenly. Pantoja transitions incredibly quickly on the ground and always looks for a finish, typically preferring submissions to ground and pound. Training at American Top Team, he’s never looking just to touch his opponents, always throwing power shots with knockout intentions. He is willing to eat a shot to land one and can get drawn into brawls in the feet, often swinging wildly in the pocket. Pantoja is impressively calm in deep waters and can find a finish anywhere, any time.
Erceg is on an eleven-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #11 ranked Flyweight Matt Schnell (16-8-0), #15 ranked Flyweight David Dvorak (20-6-0), and Alessandro Costa (13-4-0). He’s extremely well-rounded, possessing technical striking and a dangerous submission game. He’s constantly pressuring forward, keeping his head off the centerline, and always remaining technical, never telegraphing his shots. Erceg has excellent counterstriking and hides his kicks well, regularly landing brutal leg kicks. Training at Wilkes Martial Arts, he’s averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and can find submissions with incredible speed. With all six submission wins coming via choke, he’ll constantly search for his opponent’s neck on the ground. Erceg has solid cardio and pushes a consistent pace throughout, never getting sloppy or putting himself in bad spots.
Best Bets
Michel Pereira by KO/TKO: This is an odd matchup, but so is any matchup involving Pereira. His style presents problems to any opponent he takes on, and that’s especially true against Potieria. HPotieria tends to drop his hands, using that karate-type stance, which perfectly plays into the game of Pereira. Pereira is faster, stronger, and more technical, and I expect him to secure another highlight.
Jose Aldo Moneyline: While it’s tough to expect a win from anyone coming out of retirement, this isn’t just anyone we’re talking about: it’s Jose Aldo. Jonathan Martinez is an excellent fighter with a fantastic kicking game, but it pales in comparison to Aldo's skill. If he had some terrible skid or fell off before he retired, I wouldn’t have much confidence, but that never happened. Also, despite his incredible tenure in the sport, he’s only 37 years old and definitely has some gas left in the tank. I expect an excellent comeback victory for the King of Rio.
Alexandre Pantoja Moneyline: Arguably one of the most surprising title matchups in a long time, Steve Erceg rose to title contention at an astronomical pace. Although he’s proven highly skilled and well-rounded, this all feels a bit too fast. With just three UFC wins, he goes from facing the #11 ranked Matt Schnell in his last outing to the champion of the world and one of the pound-for-pound best. Pantoja has a wealth of experience at the highest level and is dangerous anywhere the fight goes, so I expect another successful title defense this Saturday.