UFC 309 Preview
Jon Jones fires a kick to the head of Rashad Evans. Credit: MMA Mania.
The UFC takes centerstage at Madison Square Garden with an outstanding pay-per-view card. There are plenty of exciting matchups filled with veterans, prospects, and rising stars all looking to score a win on the sport’s biggest stage. In the co-main event, we’ll see a rematch of epic proportions when perennial contender Charles Oliveira squares off again against the always-dangerous Michael Chandler. In the main event, two of the most legendary fighters in UFC history will go toe-to-toe for gold when Heavyweight champion Jon Jones looks to defend his strap against Stipe Miocic. With top-notch fights spread throughout the card, we’ll look at a handful of preliminary bouts and the entire main card.
Prelims
Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson
Jim Miller exchanges blows with King Green. Credit: MMA Junkie.
Lightweight Bout
Jim Miller: 37-18-0, 7 KO/TKO, 20 Sub.
Damon Jackson: 23-7-1, 4 KO/TKO, 15 Sub.
Miller has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Lightweight Charles Oliveira (34-10-0), Clay Guida (38-21-0), and Donald Cerrone (36-17-0). He's among the UFC's most well-respected, well-rounded, and accomplished fighters. He has the most wins in UFC history at 26, the most fights in promotional history at 44, and the second-most finishes at 18. Miller varies his shots excellently, attacking the head and body evenly and possessing devastating leg kicks. He’s excellent at timing counterattacks and will eat a shot to land one. He’s averaging over one takedown landed and nearly two submissions attempted per fifteen minutes. Training at Sussex County MMA, Miller has excellent top control and constantly pursues a finish.
Damon Jackson tags Alexander Hernandez with a right hand. Credit: MMA Mania.
Jackson has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Pat Sabatini (19-5-0), Charles Rosa (16-8-0), and Alexander Hernandez (15-8-0). He’s a dangerous grappler with excellent chokes and solid hands. He pushes a heavy pace from the opening bell, always moving and throwing every shot straight and tight. Jackson regularly dips his head and enters the pocket, throwing heavy straights. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is a powerful wrestler capable of impressive slams. Training at Fortis MMA, he advances position quickly on the ground and has excellent control. Jackson has nine wins via rear naked choke and is constantly hunting for his opponent’s neck.
Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders
Chris Weidman knocks out Anderson Silva with a stunning left hook. Credit: New York Post.
Middleweight Bout
Chris Weidman: 16-7-0, 6 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Eryk Anders: 16-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Weidman has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over former champions Anderson Silva (34-11-0), Vitor Belfort (26-14-0), and Lyoto Machida (26-12-0). He’s a well-rounded veteran with fantastic wrestling, technical boxing, and excellent cardio. He’s a patient striker, constantly feinting and throwing out his jab to draw reactions out of his opponent. Weidman has outstanding punches with his lead hand and will remain technical throughout the fight. Training at Longo-Weidman MMA, he’s averaging over three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is a tenacious grappler. He has great chain wrestling, heavy top pressure, and is constantly looking to advance position and posture up. Weidman holds the UFC Middleweight record for takedowns landed with 43 and has landed at least one takedown in all his victories in the promotion.
Eryk Anders looks to land ground and pound on Darren Stewart. Credit: Tuscaloosa Thread.
Anders has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Gerald Meerschaert (37-18-0), Kyle Daukaus (15-4-0), and Jamie Pickett (13-11-0). He’s a powerful, heavy-handed striker who throws everything with bad intentions. He’s constantly looking to land power shots, regularly dipping his head before unloading hooks and overhands. Anders rarely throws kicks, preferring close distance, get into the pocket, and let his hands fly. Training at the MMA LAB, He is averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and will often shoot early. If he takes the fight to the mat, he’s tough to shake off, has heavy ground and pound, and will constantly look to posture up and land ground and pound. Seven of Anders’ ten finishes came in the first round and he’s most dangerous early on.
#13 Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee
Jonathan Martinez lands a brutal head kick on Cub Swanson. Credit: Zuffa LLC.
Bantamweight Bout
Jonathan Martinez: 19-5-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Marcus McGhee: 9-1-0, 8 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Martinez has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Cub Swanson (29-14-0), Said Nurmagomedov (18-3-0), and Adrian Yanez (17-5-0). He’s an excellent striker with a diverse kicking game. He constantly throws with his left leg, often opening combinations with kicks and throwing everything with power. Martinez varies his shots well, attacking the head, body, and legs while remaining technical throughout. Training at MTZ Fight Club, he can land damage at range or in the pocket, possessing brutal elbows and knees. He won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges but has solid top pressure, ground and pound, and takedown defense. Eight of Martinez’s nine knockouts have come after round one, and he heats up as the fight continues.
Marcus McGhee fires a right hook at Gaston Bolaños. Credit: Ag. Fight.
McGhee is on a five-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Gaston Bolaños (8-4-0), Journey Newson (10-5-0), and JP Buys (9-6-0). He’s a dangerous striker with big-time power and solid grappling. He’s highly explosive but remains technical throughout, throwing his shots straight and tight without telegraphing. McGhee has great footwork and head movement and is constantly coming forward and pressuring his opponent. Training at the MMA LAB, his striking sets up his grappling, and he has excellent takedown timing and defense, having defended all takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. In top position, he’s capable of producing quick submissions but also has heavy ground and pound. Six of McGhee’s nine finishes came after the first round and he tends to heat up as the fight continues.
Main Card
Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
Mauricio Ruffy blasts Jamie Mullarkey with a stiff uppercut. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Lightweight Bout
Mauricio Ruffy: 10-1-0, 10 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
James Llontop: 14-4-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Ruffy is on a five-fight win streak and has a UFC victory over Jamie Mullarkey (17-8-0). A lethal, elusive striker, he’s always dangerous and constantly hunting a knockout. He’s highly accurate and favors power to volume, often throwing single shots with knockout intentions. Ruffy has fantastic distance control and head movement, typically staying at range and picking his opponents apart with brutal leg kicks. Training with the Fighting Nerds, he throws everything with impressive speed and is unpredictable, regularly attempting unorthodox strikes without telegraphing. He varies his shots well and will constantly look to draw in his opponents so he can land counterstrikes. Although 80% of Ruffy’s knockouts have come in the first round, he has solid cardio and can carry his power comfortably across 15 minutes.
James Llontop fires a jab at Malik Lewis. Credit: MMA Junkie.
Llontop has won three of his last five outings and is looking to score his first UFC victory. He’s a gritty scrapper who’s always willing to eat one to land one. He fights behind his jab and throws every shot with power, never looking just to touch or establish range. Llontop typically looks to close the distance and let his hands go in the pocket but has damaging kicks, particularly to the legs. Training at Team FFC, he favors power to volume and will constantly load up, dip his head, and blitz forward to unload looping hooks and overhands. He has solid cardio and can push a consistent pace comfortably across 15 minutes. Llontop has found half of his finishes after the first round and is always dangerous.
#9 Viviane Araujo vs. #11 Karine Silva
Viviane Araujo digs a front kick to the body of Andrea Lee. Credit: SACAS.
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Viviane Araujo: 12-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Karine Silva: 18-4-0, 8 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Araujo has won two of her last five fights and has UFC victories over Andrea Lee (13-10-0), Jennifer Maia (22-10-1), and Alexis Davis (21-11-0). She’s a powerful scrapper who’s always coming forward, looking to land damage. She’s at her most dangerous early on, doing most of her damage inside the pocket with her hands. Araujo fights behind her jab and throws every shot with power but doesn’t telegraph or load up. Training at Cerrado MMA, she’s averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is very explosive, able to land slam takedowns in open space. She advances quickly on the ground, constantly working and pursuing a finish. Araujo is averaging about 60 significant strikes landed in her last five wins but tends to slow down as the fight goes on.
Karine Silva pursues a leg lock on Ketlen Souza. Credit: Zuffa LLC.
Silva is on a nine-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #14 ranked Flyweight Ariane da Silva (17-10-0), Maryna Moroz (11-6-0), and Ketlen Souza (15-4-0). She is a dangerous submission artist with solid power in her hands. She’s in perpetual motion on the feet, constantly feinting and opening combinations with kicks. Silva throws everything in combination and has excellent clinch striking, often using it to set up her grappling. Training with the Gile Ribeiro Team, she’s averaging nearly four takedowns landed and over two submissions attempted per fifteen minutes. She has excellent takedown entries, transitions quickly in top position, and can wrap up submissions seemingly in the blink of an eye. Silva has found six of her eight submissions in round one and has only seen the second round twice in her last nine fights.
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Bo Nickal secures a rear naked choke on Cody Brundage. Credit: MMA Mania.
Middleweight Bout
Bo Nickal: 6-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Paul Craig: 17-8-1, 4 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.
Nickal is undefeated and has UFC victories over Jamie Pickett (13-11-0), Val Woodburn (7-2-0), and Cody Brundage (10-6-0). He is a former three-time NCAA D1 collegiate wrestling champion who is very comfortable in the Octagon despite his inexperience in MMA. Unsurprisingly, he is an excellent grappler who will shoot early and secure an advantageous position very quickly. Nickal transitions at lightning speed on the ground and pursues submissions immediately once the fight hits the mat, using excellent top control to secure a finish. Training at American Top Team, his constant wrestling threat makes him very unpredictable on the feet. He has solid power in his hands and good distance management. Nickal has yet to see a third round in his short career and has produced three finishes in less than a minute.
Paul Craig locks in a brutal triangle choke on Jamahal Hill. Credit: Zuffa LLC.
Craig has won one of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Light Heavyweight Magomed Ankalaev (20-1-1), #3 ranked Light Heavyweight Jamahal Hill (12-2-0), and #6 ranked Light Heavyweight Nikita Krylov (30-9-0). He’s one of the most accomplished grapplers in the UFC, holding the UFC Light Heavyweight record for triangles with four and the second most Performance of the Night bonuses ever, with 8. He’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and is comfortable anywhere on the ground, whether on his back or on top. Training at Higher Level Martial Arts, Craig is highly experienced and always remains calm and technical on the ground, never rushing or putting himself in dangerous spots. On the feet, he tends to throw kicks at range and looks to close the distance and get the fight to the mat. He finds submissions quickly on top and bottom and is very tough to get away from on the ground. Craig is highly durable and can find submissions even in the deepest waters.
#2 Charles Oliveira vs. #7 Michael Chandler
Charles Oliveira launches a body kick at Arman Tsarukyan. Credit: RingSide24.
Lightweight Bout
Charles Oliveira: 34-10-0, 10 KO/TKO, 21 Sub.
Michael Chandler: 23-8-0, 11 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Oliveira has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #3 ranked Lightweight Justin Gaethje (25-5-0), #4 ranked Lightweight Dustin Poirier (30-9-0), and his current opponent, Michael Chandler. He’s an exceptionally well-rounded fighter with bricks for hands and deadly submissions. He utilizes technical, crisp Muay Thai on the feet to batter his opponents. Oliveira is averaging over two takedowns landed and nearly three submissions attempted per fifteen minutes. He has solid wrestling skills, can land takedowns in open space, and will advance position incredibly quickly. Training at Chute Boxe, he has proven his ability to stay calm in deep waters, regularly getting dropped in his fights only to come back and find a way to win. Oliveira has only gone to a decision twice in the last decade and always pushes a heavy pace.
Michael Chandler puts Tony Ferguson out cold with a brutal front kick. Credit: MMA Junkie.
Chandler has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #6 ranked Lightweight Dan Hooker (24-12-0) and Tony Ferguson (26-11-0). He is a former three-time Bellator Lightweight champion who entered the UFC in 2021. He’s exceptionally well-rounded, pushes a heavy pace, and is comfortable anywhere the fight goes. Chandler is an excellent wrestler with powerful takedowns, landing, on average, over two takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC. He’s incredibly dangerous in top position, possessing brutal ground and pound and particularly lethal chokes. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he’s just as dangerous on the feet as he is on the ground, having excellent power in his hands and a great chin. Chandler pushes a heavy pace at all times and is always pursuing a finish, only seeing the judges twice in his last ten fights.
(C) Jon Jones vs. #8 Stipe Miocic
Jon Jones drags Ciryl Gane down to the mat. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Heavyweight Title Bout
Jon Jones: 27-1-0, 10 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Stipe Miocic: 20-4-0, 14 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Jones is (technically) undefeated, with one DQ loss, and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Heavyweight Ciryl Gane (12-2-0), #12 ranked Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith (38-20-0), and #13 ranked Light Heavyweight Dominick Reyes (13-4-0). One of the most well-rounded fighters of all time, he’s comfortable and dangerous anywhere the fight goes. He does a great job of controlling the center of the cage and varies his shots constantly, attacking both the head and body evenly. Training at Jackson’s MMA, Jones has some of the most devastating elbows in the sport, both on the ground and the feet, and never telegraphs his attacks. He averages nearly two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, has heavy top control, and brutal ground and pound. He has a solid submission game, particularly his guillotine, which accounts for five of his seven submission wins. Jones has not been in a non-title fight since 2011 and has excellent cardio, capable of pushing a consistent pace across 25 minutes.
Stipe Miocic lands a stinging left hand on Daniel Cormier. Credit: The New York Times.
Miocic has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over former UFC champions Daniel Cormier (22-3-0), Francis Ngannou (18-3-0), and Fabricio Werdum (24-9-1). One of the most accomplished Heavyweights in UFC history, he holds multiple records in the division, including the most title defenses (3), most finishes in title fights (4), and most post-fight bonuses (9). He’s a highly well-rounded fighter with excellent technical boxing skills and efficient wrestling. Miocic fights behind his jab and remains technical throughout, remaining patient and looking for openings. He has knockout power but won’t load up or telegraph his shots, often drawing his opponents into counterstrikes. Training with the Strong Style Fight Team, he’s averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and has heavy top pressure, rarely letting his opponents out from under him. Although most of Miocic’s finishes have come in the first round, he’s exceptionally well-experienced and can easily fight for 25 minutes.
Best Bets
Nickal vs. Craig to Not Go the Distance: Before any explanation, I’ll clarify: I believe Nickal wins this fight, but he is such a massive favorite it’s not worth betting on. With that established, I have complete confidence regardless of the winner; the judges will not be involved. Although Nickal has had a relatively brief MMA career, he’s made quick work of most of his opponents and has only left the first round once. While much more experienced, Craig has only been to a single decision in his career, with all of his victories coming via finish. Although a matchup of two grapplers can sometimes lead to a long, tedious, stalemate-filled fight, neither of these fighters is that kind of grappler. Both constantly pursue a finish and regularly throw caution to the wind. While I expect some extended grappling exchanges, I don’t anticipate this one going to the scorecards whatsoever.
Charles Oliveira Moneyline: An exciting rematch that not many fans expected to be run back; regardless of the outcome, this fight will be fantastic. Both fighters are skilled anywhere the fight goes, both are durable, and both push a wild pace. In the three years since their initial meeting, both have gone on very interesting journeys. Despite losing his title, Oliveira has remained at the top of the division and continued taking on the best Lightweights in the UFC. Meanwhile, Chandler has not fought in two years, forced to take a massive layoff while chasing the ever-elusive fight with Conor McGregor, which has yet to materialize. Not to say that he hasn’t been training in that time, but taking two years off during the back half of your career is never ideal. Now, at 38 years old, he hasn’t won a fight since beating Tony Ferguson in 2022, a win that has not aged well. Although Oliveira is coming off a hard-fought loss, he’s shown no signs of slowing down and has still looked sharp after his loss to Makhachev. Ultimately, there’s no way of knowing where Chandler is coming into this fight; we know he’s always in immaculate physical condition, but we don’t know whether his skills have dulled in his time away. With all this uncertainty, I’m confident that Oliveira will secure another victory against his fellow Lightweight contender.
Jon Jones by Submission: Many fans aren’t too happy with this matchup, and for good reason. While no one would deny the incredible legacy of Miocic, he hasn’t fought in three years and is coming off one of the most brutal knockout losses in recent memory. On top of that, he’s 42 years old and hasn’t fought in front of a crowd since 2019. Although Jones has by no means been the most active fighter, he has fought and won in the last year and a half, and looked impressive doing it. Stipe is a well-rounded fighter, but is at his best on his feet, using his boxing and footwork. I expect Jones to engage in the striking early on, before ultimately securing takedowns and taking the fight to the mat. Once the fight is down there, I expect Jones to immediately pursue a finish, similar to what he did against Ciryl Gane. I can see this fight both lasting a few rounds or ending quickly, either way, I expect Jones to get it done via submission.
