UFC 311 Preview
Islam Makhachev blasts Dustin Poirier with a brutal right hand. Credit: Yahoo Sports.
The UFC visits the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, with a fantastic pay-per-view card. From top to bottom, the card is filled with hot prospects, established veterans, and outstanding matchups. In the co-main event, we’ll see a long-anticipated matchup of dangerous grapplers when Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili defends his belt against Umar Nurmagomedov. In the main event, we’ll witness a short-notice matchup on just a day’s notice when the always-game Renato Moicano takes his shot at gold against dominant Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
Kevin Holland earns a stoppage victory over Santiago Ponzinibbio. Credit: Zuffa LLC.
Middleweight Bout
Kevin Holland: 26-12-0, 13 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Reinier de Ridder: 18-2-0, 4 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.
Holland has won two of his last five fights and has wins over #6 ranked Welterweight Joaquin Buckley (21-6-0), #13 ranked Middleweight Anthony Hernandez (13-2-0), and Michael Chiesa (20-7-0). A wild scrapper who’s comfortable anywhere the fight goes, he’s always dangerous and constantly pursuing a finish. He’s an aggressive striker, throwing everything in combination, and is always willing to brawl. Holland does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket without taking much damage, but he has no problem hanging in close to exchange on the inside. Training at Travis Lutter BJJ, he tends to throw kicks at range, using his legs to set up his hands, often throwing kicks naked or at the start of a combination. He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has a slick submission game, possessing particularly lethal chokes. Holland is one of the most active fighters in MMA, having fought 23 times in the UFC since 2018, and has earned eight post-fight bonuses in his promotional tenure.
Reinier de Ridder submits Vitaly Bigdash with an impressive inverted triangle choke. Credit: MMA Fighting.
De Ridder has won three of his last five bouts and has a UFC victory over Gerald Meerschaert (37-18-0). He’s a former ONE Championship Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion and is an outstanding, dangerous grappler. He has an awkward striking style, remaining upright, fighting behind his jab, and throwing kicks at range before closing the distance. De Ridder is powerful in the clinch and constantly looks for body lock and trip takedowns, often from the opening bell. He has heavy top control and is continually attacking and improving in top position, fluidly moving from position to position. He has black belts in Judo and BJJ and uses ground and pound to wear down his opponent and create submission openings, typically pursuing chokes. De Ridder pushes a consistent pace throughout but has found eight of his twelve submissions in round one and is most dangerous early on.
#6 Jailton Almeida vs. #7 Serghei Spivac
Jailton Almeida rains down ground and pound onto Danilo Marques. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Heavyweight Bout
Jailton Almeida: 21-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.
Serghei Spivac: 17-4-0, 7 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Almeida has won four of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #9 ranked Heavyweight Jairzinho Rozenstruik (15-5-0), #10 ranked Heavyweight Derrick Lewis (28-12-0), and Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-8-0). One of the most dominant grapplers in the Heavyweight division, he’s a powerful wrestler who loves to ragdoll guys bigger than him. He won’t waste much time on the feet, typically shooting in and landing a slam takedown immediately. Almeida is very fluid on the ground and has excellent top control, making it nearly impossible for his opponents to escape. Training at Gãlpao de Luta, he’s finished all his victories and has 11 wins via rear naked choke, making him extremely dangerous if he gets to his opponent’s back. He has vicious ground and pound and is always working for a finish, constantly advancing position, and never overcommitting to anything. Almeida has absorbed, on average, 5 significant strikes per UFC fight and rarely takes much damage.
Serghei Spivac unloads brutal shots onto Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Credit: MMA Mania.
Spivac has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #8 ranked Heavyweight Marcin Tybura (26-9-0), #10 ranked Heavyweight Derrick Lewis (28-12-0), and #11 ranked Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa (15-8-0). He’s a powerful wrestler with brutal ground and pound and excellent top control. He’ll usually shoot in early, more often than not earning the takedown, having landed at least three takedowns in nearly all his UFC wins. Spivac rarely leaves fights up to the judges, with ten first-round finishes in his career and nine of his twelve bouts in the promotion not going the distance. Training with the Polar Bear Team, he has a diverse submission game but will look to land ground and pound before chasing a submission. He’s always looking to land damage on the ground but won’t force anything, being more than willing to hold half guard and work from there. While Spivac usually won’t spend much time on the feet, he has heavy hands and will throw right overhands until closing the distance and pursuing takedowns.
#2 Jiří Procházka vs. #3 Jamahal Hill
Jiří Procházka batters Aleksander Rakić with brutal ground and pound. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Light Heavyweight Bout
Jiří Procházka: 30-5-1, 26 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Jamahal Hill: 12-2-0, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Procházka has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #5 ranked Light Heavyweight Aleksander Rakić (14-5-0), #9 ranked Light Heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (20-8-0), and #11 ranked Light Heavyweight Dominick Reyes (14-4-0). He’s an elusive striker with a unique style and serious power. He has excellent head movement and footwork, never remaining in one spot long and constantly attacking from different angles. Procházka never telegraphs his strikes, always keeping his hands down and throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions. Training at Jetsaam Gym Brno, he’s always coming forward but won’t get sloppy, remaining patient and looking for openings to land strikes. He won’t typically look for takedowns but has solid pressure on top and a great submission game. Procházka hasn’t been to a decision since 2016 and has secured a finish in his last twelve wins with eleven knockouts and one submission.
Jamahal Hill lands a stinging jab on Thiago Santos. Credit: MMA Mania.
Hill has won four of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Light Heavyweight Johnny Walker (21-9-0), Glover Teixeira (33-9-0), and Thiago Santos (22-13-0). He’s a bruising striker with one-shot knockout power who’s constantly pressuring forward. He’ll often look to counterattack, drawing in his opponent before unloading brutal, looping hooks. Hill is accurate, landing 54% of the significant strikes he’s attempted in the UFC, and he throws every shot with purpose. He’s never shot a takedown in the UFC but has defended 73% of them tried on him and has excellent striking in the clinch, especially his knees. Training at Black Lion Jiu-Jitsu, he does a great job of mixing in kicks at the end of combinations, possessing perilous leg and head kicks. He’s earned four post-fight bonuses in nine UFC appearances and always leaves everything inside the cage.
(C) Merab Dvalishvili vs. #2 Umar Nurmagomedov
Merab Dvalishvili lifts up Henry Cejudo and carries him before a slam takedown. Credit: Yahoo Sports.
Bantamweight Title Bout
Merab Dvalishvili: 18-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Umar Nurmagomedov: 18-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Dvalishvili is on an eleven-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Bantamweight Sean O’Malley (18-2-0), #3 ranked Bantamweight Petr Yan (18-5-0), and #7 ranked Bantamweight Henry Cejudo (16-4-0). He has monstrous cardio, relentlessly pursuing takedowns and landing big flurries on the feet. He’s incredibly durable, always willing to eat a shot to land one, and is constantly pressuring forward. Dvalishvili can easily wrestle for five rounds, averaging over six takedowns landed per fifteen minutes in the UFC. Training with the Serra-Longo Fight Team, his constant wrestling threat helps to mask his striking, often coming forward with powerful hooks and big combinations. He never stops moving on the feet or the ground, constantly looking for a better position or opening to land a shot. Always looking to overwhelm his opponents, Dvalishvili lands, on average, nearly twice as many significant strikes per minute than he absorbs.
Umar Nurmagomedov shoots for a double leg takedown on Cory Sandhagen. Credit: Marca.
Nurmagomedov is undefeated and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Bantamweight Cory Sandhagen (17-5-0), Nate Maness (16-3-0), and Sergey Morozov (19-5-0). He’s a technical, well-rounded fighter with big power in his hands and dominant wrestling. He’s constantly switching stances and throwing lead leg attacks, always moving and never staying in one spot for long. Training at the American Kickboxing Academy, Nurmagomedov has fantastic takedowns and top control, often landing takedowns in open space and quickly advancing position. He’s averaging over four takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and remains patient in top position, always looking for openings to land ground and pound or grab a submission. He has devastating power in his hands and can produce a flash knockout at any moment. Six of Nurmagomedov’s seven submissions have been via rear naked choke, so he’ll regularly look to take his opponent’s back.
(C) Islam Makhachev vs. #10 Renato Moicano
Islam Makhachev submits Thiago Moises with a crushing rear naked choke. Credit: EssentiallySports.
Lightweight Title Bout
Islam Makhachev: 26-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.
Renato Moicano: 20-5-1, 2 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Makhachev is on a fourteen-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Featherweight Alex Volkanovski (26-4-0), #2 ranked Lightweight Charles Oliveira (34-10-0), and his current opponent, Arman Tsarukyan. He is a commanding wrestler who wastes little time taking it to the mat and pursuing a finish. Training at AKA, he prefers grappling but is a solid striker, landing 59% of his significant strikes while defending 61% of those attempted on him. Makhachev averages over three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, using the now-famous Dagestani style of controlling and dominating his opponent against the cage. He relentlessly pursues a finish from top position and can easily control an opponent for five rounds. He has top-notch cardio and can grapple or strike for twenty-five minutes, never truly being out of a fight. Makhachev has secured a finish in seven of his last eight fights and seems to improve constantly.
Renato Moicano stuns Drew Dober with a cracking left hand. Credit: MMA Mania.
Moicano has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Featherweight Calvin Kattar (23-8-0), #12 ranked Lightweight Benoît Saint Denis (13-3-0), and #14 ranked Lightweight Jalin Turner (14-8-0). He is a grappling ace with an excellent submission game but is more than willing to throw down on the feet. With only five of his seventeen bouts in the promotion going the distance, he always fights with a “kill or be killed” mentality. Moicano is dangerous in top position, especially if he takes his opponent’s back, with all his career submissions coming via rear-naked choke. He’s aggressive on the ground, always trying to improve to a better position, but is also intelligent and rarely puts himself in danger. On the feet, he has solid speed and power in his hands and loves to throw uppercuts and elbows when in close. Training at American Top Team, he often stays patient and picks his shots, waiting for openings to land combinations or attempt a takedown.
Best Bets
Jiří Procházka Moneyline: An outstanding matchup of two former UFC Light Heavyweight champions, there’s sure to be fireworks. Although both are dominant strikers, they utilize different styles, with Procházka utilizing his elusiveness and unpredictability to damage his opponents, while Hill is more orthodox, focusing on volume and power. Both are exceptional knockout artists, but Procházka is vastly more experienced, possessing 22 more fights on his record, and has faced a greater variety of opponents, even before he came to the UFC. Until his two title fights, Hill has not faced outstanding competition and has only been a professional since 2017, compared to 2012 for Procházka. Procházka also has the more diverse striking style of the two, regularly throwing kicks and spinning attacks, while Hill primarily uses his hands to do damage. Procházka has only lost to Pereira in the UFC, so despite those tough losses, they’re against the best Light Heavyweight in the world. I expect him to use his footwork to elude the power shots of Hill, batter him with combinations, and earn a victory.
Merab Dvalishvili Moneyline: A title fight between two outstanding grapplers; this is a very tough fight to call. Nurmagomedov has shown exceptional skill in the UFC, proving to be highly well-rounded and dangerous anywhere, but he has never faced another grappler of this caliber. Dvalishvili is a relentless wrestler who seemingly never gets tired, always pushing a heavy pace. We’ve never seen Nurmagomedov have to push a pace like that in a fight before, and while I wouldn’t say he has bad cardio, he did slow down in the later rounds against Sandhagen. Although Nurmagomedov may have a striking advantage in this matchup, I don’t expect much time spent on the feet in this fight. I’m anticipating constant grappling exchanges and relentless takedown attempts from Dvalishvili. If he can keep the pressure up, I expect Nurmagomedov to slow as the rounds continue and for Dvalishvili to break him with his output, ultimately securing another title defense.
Islam Makhachev by KO/TKO: This matchup is exceptionally late notice, being made Friday morning after Arman Tsarukyan had to pull out due to injury. Even with a whole training camp of preparation, Makhachev is one of the most dangerous and complex fighters against which to compete. With just a day's notice, Moicano is stepping in to fight for the belt and has an incredibly daunting task ahead of him. Moicano is exceptionally tough and an outstanding grappler but has never faced an opponent nearly as well-rounded as Makhachev. Makhachev has proven he can finish a fight anywhere, anytime, and seems to improve after every fight. While Moicano has the grappling ability to compete with Makhachev, I can’t imagine this fight will get to the mat. I expect Makhachev to stalk him down early and unload combinations until earning the knockout victory.
