UFC 292 Preview
Sean O’Malley lands a stiff right hand on Kris Moutinho. Credit: MTN Sports.
This Saturday, a big-time pay-per-view hits the TD Garden in Boston with two title fights at the top. Two divisive figures, Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley, face off for the Bantamweight strap in a heavily anticipated matchup. In the co-main event, two heavy-handed scrappers, Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos, fight for the women’s Strawweight title. Preceding them is a night filled with top contenders and rising stars, making for an excellent event. Let’s take a look at this weekend’s main card.
#6 Marlon Vera vs. #10 Pedro Munhoz
Marlon Vera lands a devastating head kick on Dominick Cruz. Credit: MMA Mania.
Bantamweight Bout
Marlon Vera: 20-8-1, 8 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Pedro Munhoz: 20-7-0, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Vera has won four of his last five fights, and has wins over former UFC Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (23-11-1), former UFC Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz (24-4-0), and #2 ranked Bantamweight Sean O’Malley (16-1-0). Vera is an experienced veteran with a diverse striking game and a granite chin. In his last five fights, he has absorbed, on average, about 134 significant strikes and 159 total strikes; something made utterly absurd by the fact that he won four of those bouts. He gets better as the fight continues and can land damage inside or at range, with some particularly dangerous clinch striking. Vera stays technical across five rounds and regularly switches stances, holding power in both hands but never telegraphing or loading up. He supplies his opponent with a constant dose of kicks, constantly throwing various attacks with his legs, all with heavy power. He has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is excellent in top position, possessing some brutal ground and pound. Vera has dangerous BJJ and can submit people, but he has become more of a striker in recent years.
Pedro Munhoz submits Rob Font with a guillotine choke. Credit: MMA Mania.
Munhoz has wins in two of his last five outings with one no-contest and has wins over former UFC Bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt (13-5-0), #7 ranked Bantamweight Rob Font (20-7-0), and #15 ranked Bantamweight Chris Gutierrez (19-4-2). He is a well-rounded fighter with devastating power in his hands and excellent BJJ. He throws every shot with power, often dipping his head to unleash brutal overhands. Munhoz is constantly coming forward and is fantastic at controlling the center of the octagon. Training at American Top Team, he does a great job mixing in kicks without telegraphing, often throwing numerous heavy low kicks. Holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a brown belt in Judo, he’s very dangerous on the ground. Munhoz has heavy top control, devastating ground and pound, and excellent submissions.
Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista
Da’Mon Blackshear submits Jose Johnson with the just the third-ever twister in UFC history. Credit: Yahoo! Sports
Bantamweight Bout
Da’Mon Blackshear: 14-5-1, 2 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Mario Bautista: 12-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Blackshear has victories in three of his last five outings with one draw and has UFC wins over Luan Lacerda (12-3-0) and Jose Johnson (15-8-0). He’s making a record-tying 7-day turnaround, fighting on short notice this Saturday after pulling off just the third twister submission in UFC history last week. He’s a technical striker who does a lot of work with his lead hand and leg, throwing a bevy of jabs, uppercuts, and front kicks. Blackshear has great clinch striking and throws everything in combination, preferring volume over power when it comes to punching. Training at KO Zone, he has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is averaging nearly two takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC. He’s visibly calm and experienced on the ground and has a solid wrestling game, able to land takedowns in open space. Blackshear is excellent at executing back takes and has a dangerous submission game if the opportunity presents itself.
Mario Bautista works to secure a rear naked choke against Guido Cannetti. Credit: MMA Mania.
Bautista has won four of his last five fights and has wins over Miles Johns (13-2-0), Brian Kelleher (24-14-0), and Benito Lopez (10-2-0). He’s incredibly quick and dangerous on the feet, able to easily move in and out of the pocket. He throws everything with power, keeps his punches tight and technical, and attacks the head and body evenly. Training at the MMA Lab, Bautista always comes forward, throwing combinations and typically a steady flow of low kicks. He’s averaging nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed 68% of the takedowns he’s attempted, showing his excellent and efficient wrestling. He’s as quick on the ground as on the feet, transitioning and passing at lightning speed. Bautista has heavy top pressure and will find submissions in the blink of an eye, winning his last three appearances by first-round submission.
#11 Neil Magny vs. #13 Ian Garry
Neil Magny performs a takedown on Daniel Rodriguez. Credit: MMA Mania.
Welterweight Bout
Neil Magny: 28-11-0, 7 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Ian Garry: 12-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Magny has won three of his last five fights and has wins over former UFC Welterweight champions Robbie Lawler (29-16-0) and Johny Hendricks (18-8-0), as well as #8 ranked Welterweight Geoff Neal (15-4-0). He is in his 10th year in the promotion, and his experience shows in the cage, as he’s seemingly comfortable everywhere. He’s tall for the division and uses it well, staying at distance on the feet and picking his opponents apart with his punches. Magny’s best weapon is his cardio; he can and has gone 25 minutes and always pushes a heavy pace, constantly touching up his opponents or working for takedowns. Training at Elevation Fight Team, he is excellent at using his length inside the clinch, often landing knees and elbows and scoring takedowns. Averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, his most straightforward path to victory is to take it to the mat, which he usually does. Magny stays technical across the entire fight, never overexerting himself or putting himself in significant danger.
Ian Garry lands a head kick on Daniel Rodriguez. Credit: TalkSport.
Garry is undefeated and has UFC victories over Daniel Rodriguez (17-4-0), Song Kenan (18-7-0), and Gabe Green (11-5-0). He’s an excellent striker with a very fluid style, constantly moving and bouncing on his feet with an almost karate-like stance. He’s highly accurate, having landed 55% of the strikes he has attempted in the UFC, and remains patient, always looking for openings. Garry fights behind his jab and has excellent distance management, typically controlling the center of the cage and forcing his opponent to the outside. He has a deadly kicking arsenal and uses them to do significant damage at range, never telegraphing and constantly mixing kicks into punch combinations. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he holds a black belt in Judo and has solid takedown defense but rarely initiates grappling exchanges. Garry benefits from a slower pace, technical fight, having never been dragged into a knockdown, drag-out brawl.
(C) Zhang Weili vs. #5 Amanda Lemos
Women’s Strawweight Title Bout
Zhang Weili submits Carla Esparza with a rear naked choke to win the Strawweight title. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Zhang Weili: 23-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Amanda Lemos: 13-2-1, 8 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Weili has found victory in three of her last five outings and has wins over former UFC champions Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-5-0) and Jessica Andrade (24-12-0), as well as #10 ranked strawweight Tecia Torres (13-6-0). Weili pushes a serious pace, both on the feet and the ground, and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. Weili is arguably the most powerful puncher in the division, made even more hazardous by her accuracy and ability to stay technical while still throwing bombs. Training at Fight Ready, Weili varies her strikes well, attacking both the head and body and mixing kicks into combinations. She is willing to grapple, averaging over two takedowns landed per fight, and will immediately start punching away if she gets on top of her opponent. Like she does on the feet, Weili always looks for the finish on the mat, transitioning quickly and throwing devastating ground and pound. She has a brown belt in BJJ and won her last bout via rear naked choke, so she has submission ability but is more likely to try to drive her opponent’s head through the canvas.
Amanda Lemos submits Michelle Waterson-Gomez with a guillotine choke. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Lemos has won four of her last five fights, with wins over #9 ranked Strawweight Marina Rodriguez (16-3-2), #13 ranked Strawweight Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-11-0), and Montserrat Conejo-Ruiz (10-3-0). Lemos is a knockout artist, having eight first-round finishes in her career, with three coming in the UFC. She has crazy power for the division in both hands and has knocked people out with her jab. Lemos won’t push a crazy pace on the feet, making up for volume with power and accuracy, landing at a 57% accuracy rate. Training at Marajo Brothers Team, Lemos is at her best when she’s controlling the center of the octagon and pressuring her opponent, throwing plenty of devastating front kicks and leg kicks when at distance. She averages just over one takedown landed per 15 minutes in the UFC and has shown a slick submission game, particularly her guillotine. If she does end up in top position, she’ll often rain down ground and pound until securing a finish.
(C) Aljamain Sterling vs. #2 Sean O’Malley
Aljamain Sterling rains down ground and pound on Petr Yan. Credit: MMA Mania.
Bantamweight Title Bout
Aljamain Sterling: 23-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Sean O’Malley: 16-1-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Sterling comes into this fight with a nine-fight winning streak, with wins over former UFC bantamweight champion Petr Yan twice (16-5-0), former UFC double champion Henry Cejudo (16-3-0), and #4 ranked bantamweight Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0). Sterling is an excellent grappler, possessing fantastic wrestling and a lethal submission game. Sterling has smothering top control, often using ground and pound to set up his submission attempts. To back up his grappling, Sterling has solid kickboxing on the feet, with great speed in both his hands and his kicks. Sterling has the cardio to push a furious pace for all 25 minutes, whether on the feet or the ground, averaging about 74 significant strikes landed in his last five fights. Training at Serra-Longo Fight Team, Sterling averages two takedowns landed per 15 minutes, along with about one submission attempt, so his most accessible path to victory is rather apparent.
Sean O’Malley finishes Jose Quinonez with ground and pound. Credit: Zuffa LLC.
O’Malley has won 4 of his last five outings with one no-contest and has wins over former UFC Bantamweight champion Petr Yan (16-5-0), Raulian Paiva (21-5-0), and Thomas Almeida (22-5-0). O’Malley is known for his wild striking style, throwing out a variety of spinning and flying kicks seemingly at will. Averaging over seven significant strikes landed per minute, O’Malley is always pursuing a finish, holding six KO victories in the UFC. O’Malley rarely engages in grappling exchanges, preferring to stay at range and pick at his opponent with long punches and kicks. Beyond his arsenal of flashy attacks, his most dangerous weapon are his straight punches, often putting them at the end of combinations and regularly resulting in knockdowns or knockouts (see O’Malley vs Wineland). O’Malley has had a meteoric rise to the title, with only one significant test in Petr Yan on his journey to the belt.
Best Bets
Blackshear vs. Bautista to Not Go the Distance: This one is pretty cut and dry; Blackshear is fighting on a week’s notice coming off two consecutive finishes, while Bautista has finished his last three fights in the first round. I’d be utterly shocked to see this one go to the judges.
Ian Garry by KO/TKO: Although I’m by no means the biggest fan of Ian Garry, I do believe he should finish Magny, and relatively quickly. Magny is his toughest test so far, but if Garry can keep it on the feet, it should be a foregone conclusion.
Zhang Weili by Finish: Weili is truly one of the most vicious, well-rounded fighters in all of MMA, and I don’t believe Lemos has faced anywhere near this level of competition before. Besides Marina Rodriguez, Lemos really hasn’t been faced with top-level competition in the UFC, and I think Weili makes easy work of her.
