UFC 296 Preview
Leon Edwards knocks out Kamaru Usman with a head kick. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Unfortunately, the final UFC card of the year has arrived, but thankfully, it’s loaded from top to bottom with killers. Perpetual title contender Colby Covington challenges Leon Edwards for his Welterweight belt in the main event. In the co-main, Alexandre Pantoja pursues his first title defense in a rematch with Brandon Royval. Big names and up-and-comers litter this card, which should be fireworks from start to finish. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Tony Ferguson vs Paddy Pimblett
Tony Ferguson blasts Anthony Pettis with a left hook. Credit: Yahoo Sports.
Lightweight Bout
Tony Ferguson: 26-9-0, 13 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Paddy Pimblett: 20-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Ferguson has not won any of his last five fights and has wins over former UFC Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (25-14-0), #11 ranked Lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (32-15-0), and #11 ranked Featherweight Edson Barboza (24-11-0). He is one of the sport's most beloved and respected fighters, going on a 12-fight win streak between 2013 and 2019. “El Cucuy” is well known for his unique style, moving awkwardly on the feet and doing odd things like throwing imaginary sand at his opponent. Ferguson has an excellent jab and solid boxing and is always willing to engage on the feet, fighting with a “kill or be killed” mentality. He has fantastic grappling, possesses solid wrestling, and has one of the best submission games in the sport. With all 8 of his career submission wins coming via some form of choke, he’s especially dangerous with unorthodox submissions, particularly the d’arce choke. Ferguson is highly experienced and comfortable where the fight ends up.
Paddy Pimblett throws a jab at Jared Gordon. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Pimblett has won all of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Jared Gordon (20-6-0), Kazula Vargas (12-5-0), and Jordan Leavitt (11-3-0). He is a very aggressive striker, always throwing everything with power and using a variety of wild kicks. He throws in combination and is willing to brawl in the pocket, often blitzing forward and swinging wild hooks. Training at Next Generation UK, Pimblett is an excellent grappler, and in his promotional tenure, he’s averaging about one takedown landed and over two submissions attempted per 15 minutes. He has excellent takedowns and advances position quickly on the ground, always looking to find a finish. He’s very creative on the ground and is one of the most dangerous men in the sport to have on your back, as he will often quickly wrap up chokes. Six of Pimblett’s nine career submissions are rear naked chokes, and he also has two flying triangle wins, so if he can get a hold of his opponent’s neck, the fight is practically over.
#5 Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. #6 Stephen Thompson
Shavkat Rakhmonov chokes out Geoff Neal. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Welterweight Bout
Shavkat Rakhmonov: 17-0-0, 8 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Stephen Thompson: 17-6-1, 8 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Rakhmonov is undefeated and holds UFC wins over #8 ranked Welterweight Geoff Neal (14-5-0), #13 ranked Welterweight Neil Magny (28-12-0), and Alex Oliveira (25-15-1). He is in perpetual motion, constantly pressuring forward, but stays patient and never telegraphs his shots. He’s landed about double the strikes he’s absorbed in his five fights with the promotion, on average only eating about 21 significant strikes per fight. Rakhmonov holds the rank of Master of Sport in Combat Sambo and has won every fight of his career via finish, with only a single bout going to a third round. He is an excellent grappler with great takedowns, clinch striking, and a slick submission game. All eight submission wins have come via some choke, so they're in serious trouble if he gets a hold of his opponent’s neck. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Rakhmonov is a highly technical fighter but also will throw some flashy strikes, particularly a devastating spinning heel kick.
Stephen Thompson lands a head kick on Kevin Holland. Credit: MMA Weekly.
Thompson has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #8 ranked Welterweight Geoff Neal (14-5-0), #9 ranked Welterweight Vicente Luque (22-9-10), and #12 ranked Welterweight Kevin Holland (25-10-0). He’s a karate-style fighter who provides his opponents with a steady dose of lead leg attacks and straight punches. He has excellent footwork and distance management, constantly moving and changing stances while keeping his head off the centerline. Training with Team Upstate Karate, Thompson is highly accurate and never telegraphs strikes, throwing swift kicks and frequently attacks from different angles. Although he has an excellent arsenal of kicks, he possesses equal power and speed in his hands, often blitzing forward to unload combinations. Although he’s most comfortable in a technical kickboxing bout, he’s willing to get dirty and engage in the pocket. Thompson has an excellent chin and great cardio, making him a formidable opponent from bell to bell.
(C) Alexandre Pantoja vs. #3 Brandon Royval
Alexandre Pantoja lands an uppercut on Brandon Moreno. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Flyweight Title Bout
Alexandre Pantoja: 26-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Brandon Royval: 15-6-0, 4 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Pantoja has won four of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Flyweight Brandon Moreno (21-7-2), #6 ranked Flyweight Manel Kape (19-6-0), and his current opponent, Brandon Royval (15-6-0). He is a highly well-rounded fighter who tends to be a fast starter with solid power in his hands. He’s constantly pressuring forward, throwing everything in combination, and varying his strikes well, attacking the head and body evenly. Pantoja transitions exceptionally quickly on the ground and always looks for a finish, typically preferring submissions to ground and pound. Training at American Top Team, he’s never looking just to touch his opponents, always throwing power shots with knockout intentions. He is willing to eat a shot to land one and can get drawn into brawls in the feet, often swinging wildly in the pocket. Pantoja is extremely calm in deep waters and can find a finish anywhere.
Brandon Royval knocks out Matheus Nicolau with a knee. Credit: MMA Mania.
Royval has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Flyweight Kai Kara-France, #5 ranked Flyweight Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1), and #9 ranked Flyweight Matt Schnell (16-7-0). He’s a well-rounded scrapper who pushes a crazy pace from bell to bell. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, “Raw Dawg” has been awarded four bonuses in just seven bouts in the promotion, proving he leaves it all in the cage every time. Royval is dangerous on top and off his back, always moving on the ground and searching for submissions. He throws everything in combination on the feet and is always coming forward. He’s more than willing to brawl and has shown an excellent ability to recover from being hurt. Royval’s wild striking game often sets up his grappling, allowing him to land on top or find a submission.
(C) Leon Edwards vs. #3 Colby Covington
Leon Edwards lands a left hook on Rafael Dos Anjos. Credit: Yahoo Sports.
Welterweight Title Bout
Leon Edwards: 21-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Colby Covington: 17-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Edwards has been undefeated since 2015 with one no-contest and has UFC wins over #1 ranked Welterweight Kamaru Usman (20-4-0), #9 ranked Welterweight Vicente Luque (22-9-1), and #11 ranked Lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (32-15-0). He is a very polished striker, holding the sixth fastest finish in UFC history with his 8-second KO in his second UFC fight, and is dangerous across all 25 minutes. He has excellent volume striking, outlanding eight of his last ten opponents, averaging about 75 significant strikes landed per fifteen minutes. Edwards has excellent takedown defense and is most comfortable on his feet, but he has rounded out his skillset and is willing to grapple. Averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes, he has heavy ground and pound and holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Training with Team Renegade, he throws every shot with purpose and won’t overextend, remaining technical throughout the fight. Edwards has gone five rounds in four of his last five bouts and is more than prepared to go to war again.
Colby Covington cracks Jorge Masvidal with a straight right. Credit: The Washington Post.
Covington has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #11 ranked Lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (32-15-0) and former UFC Welterweight champions Robbie Lawler (30-16-0) and Tyron Woodley (19-7-1). He’s an excellent grappler with exceptional wrestling and top-tier cardio. He’s constantly pressuring forward, fighting behind his jab and throwing in combination. Covington favors volume to power, landing about 120 significant strikes on average in his last five fights. Training at MMA Masters, he’s a tenacious who’s wrestler willing to work for takedowns and is very hard to escape once he’s in top position. He always chooses position over submission and will constantly rain down ground and pound, using a methodical pace to break down his opponents. Covington always makes great use of his cardio, reaching the final round in his last 11 fights.
Best Bets
Ferguson vs. Pimblett to Not Go the Distance: While I and every other MMA fan hate this fight, it’s happening anyway. I cannot bring myself to pick Paddy over Tony, so I’ll take it not to see the judges instead.
Pantoja Moneyline: It took a lot of deliberation to reach this pick: admittedly, I’m a big Royval fan. Upon rewatching their first fight, I believe this will be much closer than many expect. Ultimately, I think Pantoja will be too strong and skilled for Royval and will successfully defend his title.
Edwards Moneyline: Easily the toughest pick to make on this entire card; there are a lot of moving parts here. Colby has no wins over ranked Welterweights and hasn’t fought in a year, while it’s public knowledge Leon wanted nothing to do with this matchup. Ultimately, I think Leon proved in his fights with Usman he’s capable of competing with high-level wrestlers, and if it stays standing, Colby has a lot of holes in his striking game. This fight will likely be very close, but I believe Edwards has the skill to walk away with the victory and the belt in tow.
