UFC 301 Preview
Alexandre Pantoja stings Brandon Moreno with a jab. Credit: MMA Fighting.
This Saturday, the UFC journeys to Rio de Janeiro to host another fantastic pay-per-view card. In the co-main event, one of the greatest to ever do it, Jose Aldo, returns to take on the burning-hot Jonathan Martinez. In the main event, Flyweight’s newest king looks to earn another title defense against a quickly rising star when Alexandre Pantoja takes on Steve Erceg. From top to bottom, there are fantastic matchups packed full of rising prospects and established veterans, all looking for a highlight win. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
#13 Paul Craig vs. #14 Caio Borralho
Middleweight Bout
Paul Craig: 17-7-1, 4 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.
Caio Borralho: 15-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Craig has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Light Heavyweight Magomed Ankalaev (19-1-1), #3 ranked Light Heavyweight Jamahal Hill (12-2-0), and #6 ranked Light Heavyweight Nikita Krylov (30-9-0). He’s one of the most accomplished grapplers in the UFC, holding the UFC Light Heavyweight record for triangles with four and the second most Performance of the Night bonuses ever, with 8. He’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and is comfortable anywhere on the ground, whether on his back or on top. Training at Higher Level Martial Arts, Craig is highly experienced and always remains calm and technical on the ground, never rushing or putting himself in dangerous spots. On the feet, he tends to throw kicks at range and looks to close the distance and get the fight to the mat. He finds submissions quickly on top and bottom and is very tough to get away from on the ground. Craig is highly durable and can find submissions even in the deepest waters.
Caio Borralho blasts Gadzhi Omargadzhiev with a left hand. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Borralho is undefeated since 2015 and has UFC wins over Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-7-0), Makhmud Muradov (26-8-0), and Abus Magomedov (25-6-1). He is a well-rounded fighter with technical striking and a slick submission game. On the feet, he’s constantly moving and is very elusive, landing, on average, nearly twice as many significant strikes per minute than he absorbs. Training with the Fighting Nerds, Borralho looks to land kicks at range before entering the pocket to land powerful hooks. On the mat, he has excellent top pressure, great sweeps, and constantly pursues a finish. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is very explosive, often landing takedowns in open space. Borralho has excellent cardio and pushes a heavy pace throughout the fight, making him dangerous at all times.
Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria
Michel Pereira lands a brutal knee on Santiago Ponzinibbio. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Middleweight Bout
Michel Pereira: 30-11-0, 11 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Ihor Potieria: 21-5-0, 10 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Michel Pereira comes into this bout having won three of his last five and has UFC victories over Niko Price (15-5-0), Khaos Williams (13-2-0), and Danny Roberts (18-5-0). One of the most unique fighters in the UFC, he’s known for his wild antics within the cage. Training with Scorpion Fighting System, he’s always willing to get wild, throwing open-hand slaps, jumping knees and kicks, and even backflips. Pereira’s unorthodox style makes him both elusive and impossible to predict. He has reigned in his style in recent fights, using a much more measured, accurate approach, fighting much more efficiently with improved cardiovascular endurance. He’s averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes, has heavy ground and pound, and dangerous submissions, particularly chokes. Pereira always pushes a heavy pace and constantly pursues a finish, wherever the fight lands.
Ihor Potieria pops Shogun Rua with a right hand. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Potieria has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Shogun Rua (27-14-1) and Robert Bryczek (17-6-0). He’s a wild striker with an awkward style, throwing everything with power and always pursuing a finish. He’s at his most dangerous early, with seventeen of his 26 career bouts ending in round one. Potieria uses a karate-like stance, keeping his hands low and throwing plenty of single shots and naked kicks. He’s always looking to close the distance and will attack from various angles, often blitzing forward to throw combinations. He has power in both hands and tends to headhunt, throwing lunging straights and overhands while entering the pocket. Potieria always comes forward, often throwing caution to the wind and eating shots to get inside.
#10 Anthony Smith vs. #15 Vitor Petrino
Anthony Smith cracks Jimmy Crute with a left hand. Credit: Zuffa LLC.
Light Heavyweight Bout
Anthony Smith: 37-19-0, 19 KO/TKO, 14 Sub.
Vitor Petrino: 11-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Smith has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #9 ranked Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0), #11 ranked Ryan Spann (21-10-0), and Alexander Gustafsson (18-8-0). A well-rounded veteran, he’s highly durable and always pushes a consistent pace. He throws everything with power but remains technical throughout, always keeping his hands high and his shots straight. Smith fights behind his jab, never telegraphs or loads up, and constantly looks to close the distance and let his hands go. He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has solid takedowns and top control. Training at FactoyX Muay Thai, he’s patient on top, looking for submission openings without putting himself in dangerous positions. Smith is rarely in a boring fight and always leaves everything in the cage, holding six Performance of the Night bonuses.
Vitor Petrino loads up an elbow against Marcin Prachnio. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Petrino is undefeated and has UFC victories over Tyson Pedro (10-5-0), Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0). He’s an explosive fighter with devastating power and great grappling. He’s constantly coming forward, typically headhunting and throwing single shots, with enough power in both hands to produce a one-shot KO. Training at CM System, Petrino is at his most dangerous early on, constantly throwing overhands and hooks, favoring power to technique. He is averaging nearly four takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and can be a bit of a panic wrestler, resorting to grappling when he’s losing the striking exchanges. He has heavy top control and brutal ground and pound, averaging about one submission attempt per fifteen minutes. Petrino has surprisingly decent cardio and can push a consistent pace throughout the fight.
#13 Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo
Jonathan Martinez blasts Cub Swanson with a head kick. Credit: MMA Mania.
Bantamweight Bout
Jonathan Martinez: 19-4-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Jose Aldo: 31-8-0, 17 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Martinez is on a six-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Cub Swanson (29-13-0), Said Nurmagomedov (18-3-0), and Adrian Yanez (16-4-0). He’s an excellent striker with a diverse kicking game. He constantly throws with his left leg, often opening combinations with kicks and throwing everything with power. Martinez varies his shots well, attacking the head, body, and legs while remaining technical throughout. Training at MTZ Fight Club, he can land damage at range or in the pocket, possessing brutal elbows and knees. He won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges but has solid top pressure, ground and pound, and takedown defense. Eight of Martinez’s nine knockouts have come after round one, and he heats up as the fight continues.
Jose Aldo blasts Chito Vera with an uppercut. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Aldo returns from retirement with wins in three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Bantamweight Chito Vera (23-9-1), #8 ranked Bantamweight Rob Font (20-8-0), and #10 ranked Lightweight Renato Moicano (19-5-1). Widely considered the Featherweight GOAT, he is a legend of the sport, holding eight victories in title fights and two decades of experience. He’s an excellent technical striker who throws everything with power and in combination. Training at Novo Uniao, Aldo utilizes a mix of devastating leg kicks and punch combinations to batter his opponent. He is one of the best defensive wrestlers of all time and has defended 91% of takedowns attempted on him, dating back to his time in the WEC. He has excellent submissions, heavy ground and pound, and smothering top pressure when the fight goes to the mat. Aldo is one of the most vicious strikers in the sport's history and always hunts for a finish.
(C) Alexandre Pantoja vs. #10 Steve Erceg
Alexandre Pantoja cracks Askar Askarov with a right hand. Credit: MMA Junkie.
Flyweight Title Bout
Alexandre Pantoja: 27-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Steve Erceg: 12-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Pantoja has won all of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Flyweight Brandon Royval (16-7-0), #2 ranked Flyweight Brandon Moreno (21-8-2), and #5 ranked Flyweight Alex Perez (25-8-0). He’s a fast starter and an exceptionally well-rounded fighter with solid power in his hands. He’s constantly pressuring forward, throwing everything in combination, and varying his strikes well, attacking the head and body evenly. Pantoja transitions incredibly quickly on the ground and always looks for a finish, typically preferring submissions to ground and pound. Training at American Top Team, he’s never looking just to touch his opponents, always throwing power shots with knockout intentions. He is willing to eat a shot to land one and can get drawn into brawls in the feet, often swinging wildly in the pocket. Pantoja is impressively calm in deep waters and can find a finish anywhere, any time.
Steve Erceg floors Matt Schnell with a left hand. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Erceg is on an eleven-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #11 ranked Flyweight Matt Schnell (16-8-0), #15 ranked Flyweight David Dvorak (20-6-0), and Alessandro Costa (13-4-0). He’s extremely well-rounded, possessing technical striking and a dangerous submission game. He’s constantly pressuring forward, keeping his head off the centerline, and always remaining technical, never telegraphing his shots. Erceg has excellent counterstriking and hides his kicks well, regularly landing brutal leg kicks. Training at Wilkes Martial Arts, he’s averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and can find submissions with incredible speed. With all six submission wins coming via choke, he’ll constantly search for his opponent’s neck on the ground. Erceg has solid cardio and pushes a consistent pace throughout, never getting sloppy or putting himself in bad spots.
Best Bets
Michel Pereira by KO/TKO: This is an odd matchup, but so is any matchup involving Pereira. His style presents problems to any opponent he takes on, and that’s especially true against Potieria. HPotieria tends to drop his hands, using that karate-type stance, which perfectly plays into the game of Pereira. Pereira is faster, stronger, and more technical, and I expect him to secure another highlight.
Jose Aldo Moneyline: While it’s tough to expect a win from anyone coming out of retirement, this isn’t just anyone we’re talking about: it’s Jose Aldo. Jonathan Martinez is an excellent fighter with a fantastic kicking game, but it pales in comparison to Aldo's skill. If he had some terrible skid or fell off before he retired, I wouldn’t have much confidence, but that never happened. Also, despite his incredible tenure in the sport, he’s only 37 years old and definitely has some gas left in the tank. I expect an excellent comeback victory for the King of Rio.
Alexandre Pantoja Moneyline: Arguably one of the most surprising title matchups in a long time, Steve Erceg rose to title contention at an astronomical pace. Although he’s proven highly skilled and well-rounded, this all feels a bit too fast. With just three UFC wins, he goes from facing the #11 ranked Matt Schnell in his last outing to the champion of the world and one of the pound-for-pound best. Pantoja has a wealth of experience at the highest level and is dangerous anywhere the fight goes, so I expect another successful title defense this Saturday.
