UFC 302 Preview
The UFC returns to the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, with a fantastic pay-per-view card. In the co-main event, two dangerous Middleweight title contenders collide when Sean Strickland takes on Paulo Costa. In the main event, a true legend, Dustin Poirier, makes a final run at gold against the pound-for-pound #1 fighter, Islam Makhachev. This card is loaded with ranked fighters, rising contenders, and established veterans, all vying for a big win under the big lights. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Welterweight Bout
Randy Brown: 18-5-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos: 24-7-1, 14 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Brown has won four of his last five fights, with wins over Khaos Williams (14-3-0), Francisco Trinaldo (28-9-0), and Muslim Salikhov (19-5-0). He’s a lengthy fighter, constantly throwing combinations at range and adding body kicks at the end of his combinations. He’ll often string together long, technical punch combinations without overextending himself. Brown has solid power in both hands and devastating clinch striking, particularly his knees. Averaging just under a takedown landed per fifteen minutes, he does an excellent job mixing grappling into his striking, often using his length in the clinch to get his opponent to the mat. He has solid top control and a slick submission game, especially his chokes. Training at Kings MMA, Brown is more than willing to eat a shot to land one and can be drawn into a brawl.
Zaleski dos Santos has won three of his last five outings with one draw and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Middleweight Sean Strickland (28-6-0), #13 ranked Lightweight Benoit Saint Denis (13-2-0), and Abubakar Nurmagomedov (17-4-1). A well-rounded scrapper, he has significant power in his strikes and can produce flashy finishes. A lifetime Capoeira practitioner, he has a fantastic kicking game, regularly mixing them in at the end of combinations without telegraphing. Zaleski dos Santos can damage from range or inside the pocket, blasting kicks from distance before blitzing in with hooks and overhands. Training at CM System, he’s strong in the clinch and very tough to control. He’s defended 68% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC and will often attempt chokes when sprawling. Zaleski dos Santos has picked up nine of his fifteen knockouts in round one but carries his power throughout.
Niko Price vs. Alex Morono
Welterweight Bout
Niko Price: 15-7-0, 10 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Alex Morono: 24-9-0, 6 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Price has won one of his last five bouts with one draw and has UFC victories over Tim Means (33-16-1), Alex Oliveira (25-15-1), and Randy Brown (18-5-0). He’s a gritty scrapper, always willing to exchange in the pocket, and is comfortable anywhere the fight goes. He’s constantly looking to close the distance, regularly blitzing in with wide hooks and looping shots. Price fights behind his jab and uses his striking to set up his grappling, striking into the clinch before pursuing takedowns. Training at Roufusport, he has heavy top control and will constantly work on the ground, never accepting position. He’s very tough to control and has a dangerous guard, constantly throwing up submissions off his pack to get out of danger. Price has only seen the judges score cards three times in his career and always pushes a heavy pace.
Morono has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Donald Cerrone (36-17-0), Matthew Semelsberger (11-7-0), and Court McGee (22-13-0). He is exceptionally well-rounded, holding black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Taekwondo. He keeps his guard high and remains technical throughout, always fighting behind his jab and throwing in combination. He has excellent footwork and head movement, often just getting out of the way of strikes and regularly ducking his head to slip and counter. Morono has solid cardio and always pushes a heavy pace, having landed 90 or more significant strikes in a fight six times in the UFC. Training at Fortis MMA, he won’t often initiate grappling exchanges but has a slick submission game and is dangerous on the mat. He's very dangerous early, with eleven of his twelve career finishes coming in round one.
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Middleweight Bout
Kevin Holland: 25-11-0, 13 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Michael Oleksiejczuk: 19-7-0, 14 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Holland has won two of his last five fights and has wins over #11 ranked Welterweight Joaquin Buckley (19-6-0), #14 ranked Middleweight Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0), and Michael Chiesa (18-7-0). Willing to engage the fight anywhere, he’s dangerous at all times and is constantly pursuing a finish. He’s an aggressive striker, throwing everything in combination and always willing to brawl. Holland does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket, although he has no problem hanging close to exchange on the inside. Training at Travis Lutter BJJ, he tends to throw kicks at range, using his kicks to set up his hands, often throwing kicks naked or at the start of a combination. He pushes a consistent pace throughout the fight, always coming forward and pushing the action. Holland is averaging 70 significant strikes landed in his last five fights and is always pursuing a finish.
Oleksiejczuk has won three of his last five outings, with wins over Chidi Njokuani (23-10-0), Gian Villante (17-14-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0). He is an aggressive striker who is always coming forward and throwing combinations. He has an excellent chin and considerable power in his hands, regularly entering the pocket to throw damaging, looping hooks. Oleksiejczuk has excellent head movement and footwork, never wastes energy, and throws everything with purpose. Training at Ankos MMA, he won’t stay at range long and virtually never throws kicks, mainly using his hands to land damage. Eleven of his fifteen career finishes have come inside the first round, so he’s definitely at his most dangerous early. Oleksiejczuk holds the center well and does a great job cutting off the cage, always stalking his opponents and looking for openings to throw big combinations.
#1 Sean Strickland vs. #7 Paulo Costa
Middleweight Bout
Sean Strickland: 28-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Paulo Costa: 14-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Strickland has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Middleweight Israel Adesanya (24-3-0), #8 ranked Middleweight Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0), and #9 ranked Middleweight Jack Hermansson (24-8-0). He’s an excellent striker, constantly coming forward and letting his hands go. While he prefers to keep the fight standing, he’s willing to grapple, averaging just under one takedown landed per fifteen minutes. Strickland also has solid takedown defense, defending 77% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He uses a very upright boxing style on the feet, throwing every shot with purpose and in combination. He pushes a heavy pace throughout, landing, on average, 145 significant strikes in his last five fights. Training at Millenia MMA, Strickland tries to keep his opponent on the back foot as much as possible to open up opportunities to land strikes, especially his one-two.
Costa has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Yoel Romero (16-7-0), Uriah Hall (18-11-0), and Luke Rockhold (16-6-0). He is best known for his devastating power, having won 11 of his first twelve career fights by knockout. He possesses power in both his hands and kicks and is capable of a one-shot KO at any time. Costa has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu but rarely goes to the ground and hasn’t attempted a single submission in the UFC. Training with the Pitbull Brothers, he is at his best when pressuring forward, throwing bombs and powerful kicks, especially to the body. He is more than willing to eat a shot to land one, absorbing an almost equal amount of significant strikes as he lands per minute. Costa slows as the fight continues and will take more risks the deeper the fight goes.
(C) Islam Makhachev vs. #4 Dustin Poirier
Lightweight Title Bout
Islam Makhachev: 25-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Dustin Poirier: 30-8-0, 16 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Makhachev is on a thirteen-fight win streak, with wins coming over #1 ranked Featherweight Alex Volkanovski (26-4-0), #2 ranked Lightweight Charles Oliveira (34-10-0), and #11 ranked Lightweight Dan Hooker (23-12-0). He is a commanding wrestler who wastes little time taking it to the mat and pursuing a finish. Training at American Kickboxing Academy, he prefers grappling but is a solid striker, landing with 60% of his significant strikes while defending 61% of those attempted on him. Makhachev averages over three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, using the now-famous Dagestani style of controlling and dominating his opponent against the cage. He relentlessly pursues a finish from top position and can easily control an opponent for five rounds. He has top-notch cardio and can grapple or strike for twenty-five minutes, never truly being out of a fight. Makhachev has finished six of his last seven opponents and seems to constantly improve.
Poirier has won three of his last five fights and has wins over #2 ranked Featherweight Max Holloway (26-7-0), #3 ranked Lightweight Justin Gaethje (25-5-0), and #6 ranked Lightweight Michael Chandler (23-8-0). He’s been in the UFC for over a decade and has established himself as one of the best boxers in the sport, possessing power and speed in both hands. He pushes a heavy pace, is always willing to eat one to land one, and throws everything with purpose. Along with his exceptional boxing, he holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, making him dangerous everywhere. Training at American Top Team, he’s averaging over one takedown landed and over one submission attempted per fifteen minutes in his UFC tenure. Poirier is a true veteran, having fought nearly every significant name at Featherweight and Lightweight, and he can finish a fight from anywhere.
Best Bets
Kevin Holland by KO/TKO: Holland is one of the rare fighters in the UFC that seems unaffected by wins and losses. Win or lose, he will put on a show, and fans will love him regardless. Considering that, I don’t take much stock in his recent two-fight skid. Both losses were to high-level opponents, much higher level than Oleksiejczuk. Oleksiejczuk is dangerous; he pushes the action, has big-time power, and is always coming forward. Despite this, Holland has a definite advantage in his speed and footwork, as well as his height and reach. I believe he’ll be able to avoid Oleksiejczuk’s power shots and secure another highlight victory.
Sean Strickland by Decision: This is an excellent matchup of nearly opposite strikers. Strickland uses technical forward pressure, whereas Costa would rather have a wild brawl. Although Costa is one of the most potent strikers in the weight class, his brawling tendencies have been detrimental when facing more technical fighters like Whittaker, Vettori, or Adesanya. Strickland will remain technical regardless of the pace Costa pushes, and in a five-round fight, that’s crucial. I expect Costa to come out guns blazing and for Strickland to weather the storm to a decision victory.
Islam Makhachev by Submission: Like most people, I would love to see Poirier finally realize a title. Unfortunately, I’m not letting myself give in to delusion. As talented and well-rounded as Poirier is, Makhachev is the #1 pound-for-pound fighter for a reason. Along with his stellar grappling, his striking seems to be ever-improving, and he’s been securing more finishes in the title picture than he did at the start of his UFC career. I expect some close exchanges on the feet, but it’s only a matter of time before Makhachev attempts and secures a takedown, and that’s typically the beginning of the end. When the fight hits the mat, I expect Makachev to pursue the finish immediately, ultimately securing a submission victory and yet another title defense.