UFC 307 Preview
This Saturday, the UFC brings a fantastic pay-per-view event to the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The card is filled with established names, rising stars, and top-notch matchups. In the co-main event, we’ll see Women’s Bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington attempt the first defense of her title reign against the always dangerous Julianna Peña. In the main event, the most dominant striker in MMA, Alex Pereira, will defend his Light Heavyweight title against a heavy-handed marauder, Khalil Rountree Jr. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
#2 Ketlen Vieira vs. #3 Kayla Harrison
Women’s Bantamweight Bout
Ketlen Vieira: 14-3-0, 2 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Kayla Harrison: 17-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Vieira has won three of her last five fights and has UFC victories over #8 ranked Bantamweight Holly Holm (15-7-0), #11 ranked Bantamweight Miesha Tate (20-9-0), and Pannie Kianzad (17-9-0). She’s a dominant grappler with solid power in her hands who’s constantly coming forward. She holds black belts in Judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is very defensively sound, holding the highest takedown defense percentage in UFC Women’s Bantamweight history at 92%. Vieira has excellent takedown offense as well, capable of securing them in open space or along the fence, and has heavy pressure in top position. Training at Nova Uniao, she’s patient on top, always choosing position over submission and never putting herself in dangerous spots. She prefers submissions over ground and pound, regularly pursuing chokes even when standing. Vieira has landed a takedown in all her UFC victories but one and always looks to take it to the mat.
Harrison has won four of her last five bouts and has a UFC victory over Holly Holm (15-7-0). She is a former two-time Olympic gold medalist Judoka and a two-time PFL Women’s Lightweight champion. She is exceptionally powerful and explosive, especially in the clinch, where she has excellent throws and trips that she regularly uses to get the fight to the mat. She has heavy, smothering top pressure and is always working to advance position or posture up. Harrison will constantly unload ground and pound onto her opponent to land damage or create submission openings. She stays patient and composed on the feet, throwing everything tight and straight while using her striking to set up her grappling, regularly punching into the clinch. Nine of Harrison’s thirteen finishes have come in round one, and she pushes a heavy pace from the opening bell.
#10 Roman Dolidze vs. #15 (WW) Kevin Holland
Middleweight Bout
Roman Dolidze: 13-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Kevin Holland: 26-11-0, 13 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Dolidze has won three of his last five outings and has wins over #11 ranked Middleweight Jack Hermansson (24-8-0), #12 ranked Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith (38-20-0), and Phil Hawes (12-6-0). He is an accomplished grappler outside of MMA and has a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Sambo background. Averaging over one takedown landed and one submission attempted per fifteen minutes, he is most at home on the mat. Dolidze is excellent in the clinch and very hard to shake off, possessing devastating striking in close, particularly knees. Training at Xtreme Couture, he won’t put out too much ground and pound, choosing to focus on advancing position. He has solid power in his hands and prefers to counter-strike when on the feet, not utilizing much footwork but always moving his head. Dolidze gets his best work done without much space, regularly throwing power shots in the pocket while exiting the clinch.
Holland has won two of his last five fights and has wins over #11 ranked Welterweight Joaquin Buckley (19-6-0), #13 ranked Middleweight Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0), and Michael Chiesa (19-7-0). A wild scrapper who’s comfortable anywhere the fight goes, he’s always dangerous and constantly pursuing a finish. He’s an aggressive striker, throwing everything in combination, and is always willing to brawl. Holland does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket without taking much damage, but he has no problem hanging in close to exchange on the inside. Training at Travis Lutter BJJ, he tends to throw kicks at range, using his legs to set up his hands, often throwing kicks naked or at the start of a combination. He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has a slick submission game, possessing particularly lethal chokes. Holland is one of the most active fighters in MMA, having fought 22 times in the UFC since 2018, and has earned eight post-fight bonuses in his promotional tenure.
#10 José Aldo vs. #11 Mario Bautista
Bantamweight Bout
José Aldo: 32-8-0, 17 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Mario Bautista: 14-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Aldo has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #7 ranked Bantamweight Chito Vera (23-10-1), #9 ranked Bantamweight Rob Font (20-8-0), and #11 ranked Lightweight Renato Moicano (20-5-1). Widely considered the Featherweight GOAT, he is a legend of the sport, holding eight victories in title fights and two decades of experience. He’s an excellent technical striker who throws everything with power and in combination. Training at Nova Uniao, Aldo utilizes a mix of devastating leg kicks and punch combinations to batter his opponent. He is one of the best defensive wrestlers of all time and has defended 91% of takedowns attempted on him, dating back to his time in the WEC. He has excellent submissions, heavy ground and pound, and smothering top pressure when the fight goes to the mat. Aldo is one of the most vicious strikers in the history of MMA and is always hunting for a finish.
Bautista is on a six-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Miles Johns (15-2-0), Ricky Simon (20-6-0), and Da’Mon Blackshear (14-7-1). He’s incredibly quick and dangerous on the feet, regularly moving in and out of the pocket without taking damage. He throws everything with power, keeps his punches tight and technical, and attacks the head and body evenly. Training at the MMA Lab, Bautista always comes forward, throwing combinations and typically a steady flow of low kicks. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has landed at least one takedown in five of his last six fights. He’s as quick on the ground as on the feet, transitioning and passing efficiently and effectively. Bautista has heavy top pressure and will find submissions in the blink of an eye, possessing four first-round submission victories in the UFC.
(C) Raquel Pennington vs. #1 Julianna Peña
Women’s Bantamweight Title Bout
Raquel Pennington: 16-9-0, 1 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Julianna Peña: 12-5-0,- 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Pennington is on a six-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Bantamweight Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0), #6 ranked Bantamweight Irene Aldana (15-8-0), and #7 ranked Bantamweight Mayra Bueno Silva (10-4-1). She’s a well-rounded scrapper with excellent boxing and cardio. Averaging over 84 significant strikes landed in her last five fights, she pushes a consistently heavy pace and always throws in combination. Pennington is a highly accurate striker, remaining technical throughout and throwing every shot with purpose. Training at Altitude MMA, she has excellent clinch control and sets up her grappling with her striking. She’ll often close the distance with her boxing before clinching up and wearing her opponent down with knees and punches. Despite a lack of KO’s, Pennington has sneaky punching power, often touching up her opponents with jabs and straights before throwing with full power.
Peña has won three of her last five outings and has UFC victories over Amanda Nunes (23-5-0), Sara McMann (14-7-0), and Cat Zingano (14-5-0). The winner of the 18th season of the Ultimate Fighter, she’s a high-pace brawler with a dangerous submission game. She’s constantly pressuring forward, throwing everything with power and in combination. Peña fights behind her jab, continually pumping it out before throwing heavy straights and looping hooks. She’s landing, on average, nearly two takedowns per fifteen minutes and advances position very quickly on the mat. She’s also proven defensively sound, remaining dangerous even on her back, and can survive in deep waters. Peña heats up as the fight continues, with most of her UFC finishes coming in round two or three.
(C) Alex Pereira vs. #8 Khalil Rountree Jr.
Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Alex Pereira: 11-2-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Khalil Rountree Jr.: 14-5-0, 10 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Pereira has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Middleweight Sean Strickland (29-6-0), #1 ranked Light Heavyweight Jiří Procházka (30-5-1), and #4 ranked Light Heavyweight Jan Błachowicz (29-10-1). He is a former Glory Kickboxing Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion with a professional kickboxing record of 40-7. He is notorious for having the most devastating left hook in combat sports and loves letting it fly. Pereira has just as brutal kicks to back up his heavy hands, which he’ll often use to find his range before getting into the pocket to throw big hooks and devastating knees. He’s comfortable fighting on the outside of the octagon but is most dangerous when he takes the center and cuts off his opponent. Pereira has shown solid takedown defense and continually improving grappling, but still prefers to keep it standing. Training at Teixeira MMA, he doesn’t move a ton on the feet, occasionally standing straight in front of his opponent, waiting for them to throw something so he can fire back.
Rountree is on a five-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #12 ranked Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith (38-20-0), Dustin Jacoby (19-9-1), and Modestas Bukauskas (16-6-0). He scored the only oblique kick finish in UFC history when he obliterated Bukauskas’ knee in 2021. He has a background in Muay Thai, but his best weapons are his hands. Rountree will regularly explode forward, swinging massive looping hooks and throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions. Training at Syndicate MMA, he can fight a slower, more technical fight despite his tendency to get wild, but he can gas himself out sometimes in his search for a finish. He’s at his best early on in the fight and when he can control the center of the Octagon, using his forward pressure and crazy power to damage his opponents. Rountree has never landed a takedown in the UFC and rarely initiates grappling exchanges.
Best Bets
José Aldo Moneyline: The King of Rio returns to make his second appearance since his brief retirement, this time against an even more formidable opponent in Mario Bautista. Bautista is exceptionally high-rounded, pushes a heavy pace, and is always dangerous. This fight is an excellent matchup, but I must admit my bias; we’re talking about one of the greatest fighters ever and one of my all-time favorites. Aldo looked excellent in his first fight back against Jonathan Martinez, showing the same speed, power, and exceptional takedown defense he’s had all his career. While Bautista is a great striker, his grappling is essential to his game, possessing at least one minute of control time in all his last five fights. Aldo is arguably the greatest anti-wrestler of all time, having been taken down just ten times across 29 fights under the Zuffa banner. I expect Aldo to outpace Bautista on the feet, deny his takedowns, and earn another impressive victory.
Julianna Peña Moneyline: Easily the most slept-on matchup on the card, there is potential for fireworks in this title fight. Although Pennington won the belt in a relatively dull fight, this generally isn’t the case when she steps into the Octagon, typically pushing a heavy pace and getting into brawls. While Peña is an excellent grappler and will likely pursue takedowns in this matchup, she also has brawling tendencies and loves letting her hands go in the pocket. I would not be surprised if we see wild exchanges early on or even knockdowns. Besides their similarities, Peña pushes the heavier pace and holds the power advantage, a significant issue for Pennington, who tends to wear down her opponents over time with her own pace. I expect Peña to get the better of the exchanges on the feet, secure takedowns, and control Pennington to earn back the title she once held.
Alex Pereira by KO/TKO: Per usual, there’s significant hype around an Alex Pereira title fight, albeit not for the typical reason. Many MMA pundits have questioned how deserving Rountree Jr. is of this title shot, especially with Magomed Ankalaev sitting at #2 in the division on a 12-fight unbeaten streak. Regardless of these criticisms, Rountree Jr. is a dangerous matchup for any fighter at Light Heavyweight, including the champion. Rountree Jr. is incredibly explosive and powerful and has excellent technical Muay Thai to support his aggressive style. Unfortunately for Rountree Jr., he’s facing arguably the most devastating kickboxer in the history of the UFC. Pereira has the advantage in power and striking skill, two things Rountree Jr. often relies on. It’s also doubtful Rountree Jr. pursues any grappling, considering he hasn’t landed a single takedown in his UFC tenure. Ultimately, Pereira does what Rountree Jr. does, but better. I expect Pereira to control the distance and pace, force Rountree Jr. to take chances, and finally, retain his title with another terrifying knockout.