UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs Gaziev Preview
Jairzinho Rozenstruik lands a left hand on Augusto Sakai. Credit: MMA Fighting.
The UFC returns to the APEX this weekend with another fantastic Fight Night card. In the co-main event, we’ll see two of the most devastating strikers in the Light Heavyweight division collide, Vitor Petrino and Tyson Pedro. In the main event, two explosive, powerful scrappers, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev, will face off. Preceding them are a handful of quickly rising prospects and established names looking to move up the rankings. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
#9 Matt Schnell vs. #12 Steve Erceg
Matt Schnell lands an elbow on Sumudaerji. Credit: MMA Mania.
Flyweight Bout
Matt Schnell: 16-7-0, 2 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Steve Erceg: 11-1-0, 1 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Schnell has won two of his last five fights with one no-contest and has UFC victories over #13 ranked Flyweight Sumudaerji (16-6-0), Tyson Nam (21-14-1), and Louis Smolka (17-9-0). He’s willing to engage the fight just about anywhere, using a technical boxing style on the feet and favoring wrestling in grappling exchanges. He has solid speed and power in his hands, often using his striking to set up his grappling. Schnell excels at capitalizing on his opponent’s mistakes and regularly grabs chokes when defending takedowns. Of his nine career submission wins, seven are chokes, all of which are either a guillotine or triangle. Training at Fortis MMA, he has a black belt in karate, so despite largely boxing when on the feet, he has a kicking game to back up his hands. With nine first-round finishes and four first-round losses, Schnell is extremely unpredictable early on.
Steve Erceg chokes out Soichiro Hirai. Credit: Eternal MMA.
Erceg is on a ten-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #14 ranked Flyweight David Dvorak (20-6-0) and Alessandro Costa (13-4-0). He’s extremely well-rounded, possessing technical striking and a dangerous submission game. He’s constantly pressuring forward, keeping his head off the centerline, and always remaining technical, never telegraphing his shots. Erceg has excellent counterstriking and hides his kicks well, regularly landing brutal leg kicks. Training at Wilkes Martial Arts, he’s averaging two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and can find submissions with incredible speed. With all six submission wins coming via choke, he’ll constantly search for his opponent’s neck on the ground. Erceg has solid cardio and pushes a consistent pace throughout, never getting sloppy or putting himself in bad spots.
#13 Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan
Umar Nurmagomedov applies a rear naked choke to Sergey Morozov. Credit: Essentially Sports.
Bantamweight Bout
Umar Nurmagomedov: 16-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Bekzat Almakhan: 17-1-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Nurmagomedov is undefeated and has UFC victories over Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0), Nate Maness (15-3-0), and Sergey Morozov (19-5-0). He’s a technical, well-rounded fighter with big power in his hands and dominant wrestling. He’s constantly stance-switching and throwing lead leg attacks, always moving and never staying in one spot for long. Training at AKA, Nurmagomedov has fantastic takedowns and top control, often landing takedowns in open space and quickly advancing position. He’s averaging over four takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and remains patient in top position, always looking for openings to land ground and pound or grab a submission. He has devastating power in his hands and can produce a flash knockout at any moment. Six of Nurmagomedov’s seven submissions have been via rear naked choke, so he’ll regularly look to take his opponent’s back.
Bekzat Almakhan prepares inside the cage. Credit: Octagon MMA.
Almakhan is on a ten-fight win streak and is making his UFC debut. He’s a wild scrapper who always looks to push the pace and use all his skills. Training at Triumph Fights, he’s constantly moving and feinting, always throws in combination, and throws every shot with power. Almakhan does most of his work inside the pocket, regularly blitzing forward to unload combinations. He has solid wrestling and uses his striking to set up his grappling, often striking into the pocket and securing bodylock takedowns. He stays patient in top position, looking to control his opponent and advance position. Almakhan lets his hands go more as the fight continues and is always willing to throw down on the inside.
#7 Alex Perez vs. #8 Muhammad Mokaev
Alex Perez throws a left hand at Deiveson Figueiredo. Credit: Las Vegas Review-Journal.
Flyweight Bout
Alex Perez: 24-7-0, 5 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Muhammad Mokaev: 11-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Perez has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Jussier Formiga (24-8-0), Jordan Espinosa (15-10-0), and Mark De La Rosa (11-5-0). Perez is a well-rounded fighter with brutal leg kicks and solid wrestling. He pushes a heavy pace from bell to bell, constantly pressuring forward, dipping his head, and throwing bombs. He varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly and regularly targeting his opponent’s legs. Perez is averaging nearly three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has heavy top control. He’ll usually pursue a submission over ground and pound, and with six of his seven submissions coming via choke, he’s very dangerous if he finds his opponent’s neck. He’s always pursuing a finish, with eight of his ten UFC fights not seeing the judge’s scorecards. Perez hasn’t gone to the second round in four years and is at his most dangerous early on.
Muhammad Mokaev throws a body kick at Cody Durden. Credit: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC.
Mokaev is undefeated and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Flyweight Tim Elliott (21-13-1), Charles Johnson (14-6-0), and Malcolm Gordon (14-8-0). He’s a dominant grappler with fantastic wrestling and solid striking. He’s a tenacious wrestler, willing to work hard along the cage to secure takedowns. Mokaev has great chain grappling, often stringing together takedowns, especially in the clinch. When he does get the fight to the floor, he’s more likely to pursue submissions than a ground-and-pound finish, using heavy control to keep his opponent beneath him. Training at KHK MMA Team, he has excellent cardio and can easily grapple for 15 minutes. Mokaev pushes a heavy pace and pursues a finish at all times.
Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro
Vitor Petrino rains down ground and pound on Marcin Prachnio. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Light Heavyweight Bout
Vitor Petrino: 10-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Tyson Pedro: 10-4-0, 5 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Petrino is undefeated and has UFC victories over Anton Turkalj (8-3-0), Marcin Prachnio (17-7-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (15-6-0). He’s an explosive fighter with devastating power and great grappling. He’s constantly coming forward, typically headhunting and throwing single shots, with enough power in both hands to produce a one-shot KO. Training at CM System, Petrino is at his most dangerous early on, constantly throwing overhands and hooks, favoring power to technique. He is averaging over four takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and can be a bit of a panic wrestler, resorting to grappling when he’s losing the striking exchanges. He has heavy top control and brutal ground and pound and is averaging about one submission attempt per fifteen minutes. Petrino has surprisingly decent cardio, able to push a consistent pace throughout the fight.
Tyson Pedro cracks Modestas Bukauskas with a jab. Credit: MMA Mania.
Pedro has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #8 ranked Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. (14-5-0), #12 ranked Middleweight Paul Craig (17-7-1), and Harry Hunsucker (7-6-0). He is a devastating striker with serious power in everything he throws. He has an excellent arsenal of attacks with particularly damaging head and leg kicks, which he’ll set up with constant feinting and movement. Pedro has great speed for the division and is excellent at using his length, regularly landing damage from distance. While he won’t often initiate grappling exchanges, he has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and possesses a solid submission and takedown game. Training at City Kickboxing, he is patient and technical, never rushing in or overextending on his shots. Pedro has excellent knees and varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly. While he won’t often put out much volume in terms of strikes, he makes up for it with one-shot knockout power.
#12 Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev
Jairzinho Rozenstruik throws a right hand at Alexander Volkov. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Heavyweight Bout
Jairzinho Rozenstruik: 13-5-0, 12 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Shamil Gaziev: 12-0-0, 8 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Rozenstruik has won two of his last five fights, and has UFC victories over Chris Daukaus (12-7-0), Augusto Sakai (16-5-1), and Alistair Overeem (47-19-0). He is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 76-8, with 64 wins by knockout. Nine of his twelve career knockouts have come in the first round, so he’s at his most dangerous early on. Training at American Top Team, Rozenstruik is an excellent counter-striker who looks to draw his opponent into the pocket so he can land big shots with his right hand. He has one-shot KO power but can string together long combinations if he lets his hands go. He has solid takedown defense and has defended 75% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC, always preferring to keep it standing. Rozenstruik has excellent hand speed for a Heavyweight, throws everything with power, and often mixes kicks into the end of combinations.
Shamil Gaziev lands a left hand on Martin Buday. Credit: Zuffa LLC.
Gaziev is undefeated and has a UFC victory over Martin Buday (13-2-0). He’s an aggressive striker who’s always coming forward and throwing bombs. He fights behind his jab, throwing everything in combination and with devastating power. He pushes a wild pace from the starting bell, putting out impressive volume for a Heavyweight. Training at KHK MMA Team, Gaziev does most of his work with his hands, always looking to close the distance and let combinations fly. He won’t typically pursue takedowns, often finding himself in top position due to a knockdown. He’s smart on top, waiting to advance position before posturing up or seeking submissions. Gaziev has one-shot knockout power and is most dangerous early in the fight.
Best Bets
Steve Erceg by Submission: While a less established name than his opponent, Steve Erceg is undoubtedly not less skilled. While Schnell is always in great fights and pushes the pace, I believe the technicality and well-roundedness of Erceg will be too much for him. I expect Erceg to hurt him on the feet, then finish him off with a submission.
Muhammad Mokaev by Submission: While I’ll never go out of my way to pick Dagestanis, this feels like a given. Perez is inactive, pushes a wild pace, and has five losses by submission. I anticipate some back-and-forth on the feet, but Mokaev will inevitably get it to the ground and find a submission.
Shamil Gaziev Moneyline: I just said I don’t typically pick Dagestanis, but sometimes you have to do things you don’t want to do. Rozenstruik is the definition of a glass cannon, and with the ridiculous pace pushed by Gaziev, I don’t think he’ll last too long.
