UFC 269 Preview

In a year with 20 title fights, the title in 5 different weight classes changed hands 5 times, yet it is the 21st of these title fights that may have garnered the most hype. Coming off of two consecutive victories over Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier has quickly become one of the biggest fan favorites of the year. He’s received great praise from the pundits of the sport as well, often being placed higher on Pound for Pound lists than his champion counterpart and opponent this Saturday, Charles Oliveira. Oliveira, on the other hand, is coming into his first title defense after an incredible championship victory against perennial Bellator title contender Michael Chandler. While this main event may be what attracts many viewers to this pay-per-view, there’s plenty of excellent fights beyond this, whether it’s the main card or the prelims.

Prelims

Jordan Wright vs. Bruno Silva

Jordan Wright: 12-1-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Bruno Silva: 21-6-0, 18 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A contest we can expect to mostly remain on the feet, this fight is a great way to kick off the prelims. Jordan Wright is coming off a string of 4 fights that all didn’t see a 3rd round, winning three of those 4 by KO/TKO, and losing 1 by KO/TKO. He trains at the legendary Jackson-Wink MMA Academy, he’s known for his Karate-style standup, along with a decent ability to wrestle, although I don’t anticipate him using it much in this fight. His UFC opponents so far has largely consisted of up-and-comers (Jamie Pickett, 12-6-0, Joaquin Buckley 13-4-0) outside of veteran Ike Villanueva (18-13). Bruno Silva’s last five bouts have all ended via KO/TKO, all of which being victories and two being within the UFC. Despite having less UFC fights, Silva has more overall experience in his career, largely taking place on the Brazilian regional scene, as well as managing to become the M-1 Global Middleweight Champion. Training out of Evolucao Thai, he largely utilizes his boxing ability, but also has some beautiful clinch knees and an ability to mix in kicks. Bruno Silva opens as a solid favorite at-360, with Wright at +280. Wright’s flashy striking does make him an appealing underdog, I believe the best pick on this fight would be Under 1.5 rounds. If you really want a moneyline bet, I’d take Silva, but the line is a bit inflated, so Silva by KO would be a better bet.

Picks: Under 1.5 rounds, Silva by KO/TKO

Augusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa

Augusto Sakai: 15-3-1, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Tai Tuivasa: 13-3-0, 12 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Yet another fight virtually guaranteed to be settled standing up, we’ve got two big boys ready to go to war. Augusto Sakai has taken two consecutive KO/TKO losses, both against two high level opponents in Alistair Overeem (47-19-1) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-3-0). Despite this, he remains ranked #11 at heavyweight. He has fought in both the UFC and Bellator, giving him a bit of an edge when it comes to experience at the top of the sport. Prior to his recent losses he was on a 4-fight win streak in the UFC, with a notable win over former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski (32-20). Training out of the Gile Ribeiro/Noguchi Team, he is almost exclusively known for his striking, mostly utilizing his hands, but can get some power behind his kicks. When it does go to the mat, he’s far more likely to go for ground-and-pound than a submission. Tai Tuivasa has been hot in his last three fights, winning all of them by first round knockout, giving way to his famous “shooey” celebration. Training out of Lions High Performance Centre, he also has a victory over Arlovski, and notably finished Stefan Struve (33-13) and Greg Hardy (7-4). Like Sakai, he rarely initiates grappling exchanges, preferring to use his hands to get the job done, something he has excelled in doing as of late. This fight has even odds, with both fighters sitting at -110. Despite Sakai having the better experience, I like Tuivasa in this fight. Their careers are trending in opposite directions, and I anticipate that to continue. The best bets on this fight would be either Tuivasa moneyline, or under 1.5 rounds.

Picks: Tuivasa -110, Under 1.5

Pedro Munhoz vs. Dominick Cruz

Pedro Munhoz: 19-6-0, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Dominick Cruz: 23-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

This matchup was one of the fights that had me excited for these prelims. Two excellent fighters, one of which is regularly thrown in the GOAT conversation at bantamweight, that man being Dominick Cruz. Cruz is not far removed from the title, as 4 of his last five fights have been for the belt. He most recently defeated Casey Kenney (16-4-1) following two title fight losses against Henry Cejudo (16-2-0) and Cody Garbrandt (12-4-0) respectively. A legend of the sport, training out of Alliance MMA, Cruz has the ability to strike as well as grapple, utilizing his unique footwork and excellent wrestling. Cruz is slightly more likely to keep it on the feet, but will largely resort to ground-and-pound if he does choose to grapple. Despite a career marred by injuries, Cruz has made the best of it, and still remains in the top ten of the 135 pound division, sitting at number 9. Pedro Munhoz comes in having lost 3 of his last five, but against highly credentialed opponents in current bantamweight “champion” Aljamain Sterling (20-3-0), former UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo (31-7-0), and former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (23-10-1). Despite these losses, Munhoz remains in the top ten at 135, at #8. Training at the excellent American Top Team, Munhoz, like Cruz, has the ability to strike as well as grapple, but uses more of a brawling style in the standup and a BJJ focused ground attack. It seems he has a tendency lately to mostly engage in striking battles, but definitely has the ability to submit opponents. Munhoz opens as a slight favorite at -115, with Cruz landing at -105. This is a very tough fight to pick a winner in, so the best bet on this would be over 2.5 rounds, as in 4 of both fighters last 5 fights, they’ve gone to the judges. If I absolutely had to pick a victor, I’d give a slight edge to Cruz, but I will admit my bias as a huge Cruz fan, so take that with a grain of salt.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Cruz -105

Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige

Josh Emmett: 16-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Dan Ige: 15-4-0, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

The final fight of the prelims, this is an excellent way to tee up the pay-per-view. Both men are in the top ten of the featherweight division, with Emmett ranked at #8 and Ige at #9. Josh Emmett comes in after winning 4 of his last 5, 4 of those fights ending via KO/TKO. His last two fights are solid victories over Shane Burgos (14-3-0) and Mirsad Bektic (13-4-0), with the latter being a first round knockout. Training at the acclaimed Team Alpha Male, Emmett is well known for his thunderous striking power and excellent wrestling. While he has largely stuck to the standup in his recent fights, he is fully capable of using his wrestling to control a fight. Emmett isn’t exactly what you’d describe as a “wild” striker, but does have a tendency to throw a lot of power shots, which has presented a problem for his recent opponents. Dan Ige comes into this fight following a tough decision loss to a hallmark of the featherweight division, the “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung (17-6-0). Prior to this loss, he earned a beautiful round one KO of Gavin Tucker (13-2-0), as well as a significant victory over Edson Barboza (22-10-0). Ige typically utilizes his pristine boxing to get the job done, and has ability to grapple, but showed plenty of holes in his ground game in his loss to TKZ. Training at a great camp, Xtreme Couture, Ige has sneaky power for his size, as well as great hand speed. Despite focusing on striking in his recent bouts, I think Emmett’s wrestling can present a real problem for Ige in this fight, and the odds seem to agree with me, with Emmett being a -170 favorite, and Ige being a +145 underdog. Ige has never been finished, and Emmett has only been finished once, so I anticipate seeing the judges in this fight. The best bets on this would be over 2.5 rounds, but I like Emmett moneyline more. Both fighters have big power, so a crazy finish is entirely on the table.

Picks: Over 2.5 Rounds, Emmet -170

Main Card

Raulian Paiva vs. Sean O’Malley

Raulian Paiva: 21-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Sean O’Malley: 14-1-0, 10 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

The first fight of the main card, there is unsurprisingly a lot of hype built around this scrap. O’Malley, despite not being ranked, is one of the most popular fighters in the UFC, while Paiva is a relative unknown (like most of O’Malley’s opponents). Raulian Paiva is coming in on a 3 fight win streak, with victories over other prospects such as Kyler Phillips (9-2-0) and Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-6-0). Despite 3 solid victories lately, he has lost when facing higher level competition, such as Kai Kara-France (22-9-0) and Rogerio Bontorin (17-3-0). Training out of Ronildo Nobre Judo Club, Paiva is willing to engage wherever the fight goes, with both solid grappling and striking, with a slight preference towards the standup, particularly his boxing. Although he has some submissions on his record, I’d be surprised if that’s his main pursuit in this fight. Sean O’Malley is coming in on a two fight win streak, with victories over two not particularly notable opponents in Kris Moutinho (9-5-0) and Thomas Almeida (22-5-0). I’d say the best name on his win record is that of Eddie Wineland (24-15-1). O’Malley has become famous for his wild, kick-focused offense, rarely engaging in grappling exchanges. Training out of the MMA Lab, he has solid hands and excellent kicks, often throwing out crazy spinning attacks and devastating straight punches. Despite his fame, other than Chito Vera, I don’t think O’Malley has truly been tested in the octagon. Unsurprisingly, O’Malley is a decent favorite at -310 with Paiva a +250 underdog. I anticipate this going like other Suga Sean fights, with him controlling the standup and attaining either a Unanimous Decision or knockout. I’d take under 2.5 rounds, as O’Malley is such a big favorite, but I expect the Suga Show to walk away with a victory, so the moneyline isn’t a horrible pick up.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, O’Malley -310

Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt

Kai Kara-France: 22-9-0, 10 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Cody Garbrandt: 12-4-0, 10 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

One of the most slept on fights of this main card, this is an absolute banger between two high-level strikers. This is Garbrandt’s first flyweight bout, and he is ranked #7 in the bantamweight division, with Kara-France ranked 6 at flyweight. Kai-Kara France is coming into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 fights, most notably a 1st round KO of Rogerio Bontorin (17-3-0). Training out of the excellent City Kickboxing, he is a fantastic striker, able to use all of the 8 limbs (hands, feet, knees, elbows) to get a finish. With three submissions to his name, he does have some decent grappling chops, but I’d be shocked to see this fight go to the ground. Like many flyweight strikers, Kara-France is better known for hand speed as opposed to power. Although this is the biggest name he’s ever faced in the former bantamweight champion, he trains with two current UFC champions in Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski, so he’s no stranger to challenging famous fighters. Cody Garbrandt has lost 4 of his last 5, 2 of which being title fights, but had one of the best knockouts of 2020 against Raphael Assuncao (27-8-0). Training at Team Alpha Male, Garbrandt is known for his explosive power, and aggressive brawling style. He does have solid wrestling, but I don’t anticipate seeing much of it this Saturday. One of his biggest weaknesses is a tendency to fight emotionally, often getting angry and engaging in huge exchanges, many of which haven’t gone his way. Despite this, he’s still an extremely dangerous striker, and I expect him to carry even more power at flyweight. Garbrandt is the favorite at -140, with Kara-France the underdog at +120. I think under 2.5 rounds is practically a given in this bout, but picking a winner is a bit more challenging. With this being Garbrandt’s first fight at 125, I think Kara-France has a chance to catch him off guard with his speed and pick up a victory. I’ll take Kai Kara-France to win, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Cody to walk away with a victory.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Kara-France +120

Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Geoff Neal: 13-4-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Santiago Ponzinibbio: 29-4-0, 15-3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

The last non-title fight of the main card, this welterweight matchup is an explosive one. Both men are within the top 15 in the 170 pound division, with Ponzinibbio ranked #14 and Neal at #12. Ponzinibbio made his return to fighting in 2021 after 3 years gone due to health complications. He’s won 1 of his two fights this year, being an impressive return to form in a Unanimous Decision victory over prospect Miguel Baeza (10-2-0). His most impressive victory is a KO of welterweight hallmark Neil Magny (25-9-0). Training at American Top Team, Ponzinibbio is best known for his impressive striking and power, using a solid mix of punches and kicks to get the job done. He does has 6 submissions to his name, but none of them came in UFC fights, so while I wouldn’t consider him incapable of grappling, but it’s not his biggest strength. He has a great ability to throw combinations without getting sloppy, and is able to fight at distance as well as in the pocket. Geoff Neal is coming into this bout off of two consecutive losses, those being to Stephen Thompson (16-5-1) and the aforementioned Neil Magny (25-9-0). Neal, training at Fortis MMA, has solid kickboxing and serious power. While he isn’t the most technical striker, he throws a variety of kicks and punches, largely finding finishes using his hands. Despite being slightly undersized for the division, he makes up for that with power. This is another tough one to pick a winner in, with Ponzinibbio being the favorite at -130 and Neal the underdog at +110. I think Ponzinibbio will take it, using more technical striking and outclassing Neal, but Neal is the human definition of “puncher’s chance,” so he’s never really out of a fight. Both men have had 3 of their last five end via finish, but typically make it out of the first round. The safest bet would be over 1.5 rounds, but this fight really is a toss up.

Picks: Ponzinibbio -130, Over 1.5 Rounds

Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Peña

Amanda Nunes: 21-4-0, 13 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Julianna Peña: 11-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

The first of two title fights, this one being for the women’s bantamweight strap. Amanda Nunes is the long-reigning champion, and Peña is ranked at #3 in the women’s bantamweight division. If you don’t know who Amanda Nunes is by now, you’ve been living under a rock. Largely considered the greatest female fighter of all time, Nunes has held the bantamweight title since 2016 and the featherweight title since 2018. Training at American Top Team, Nunes is excellent in practically every facet of the sport. Not only does she have enormous power and vicious boxing, she also has excellent Jiu-Jitsu and wrestling. She can put you out on the feet, or tap you on the ground, and usually, one of the two will happen. Nunes hasn’t lost in 5 years, most notably beating former UFC women’s featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie twice (10-4-0), former UFC and current Bellator women’s featherweight champion Cris Cyborg (25-2-0), and current UFC women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0) twice. Since winning the title, Nunes has been an unstoppable force, defending both of her belts and leaving a trail of destruction in her path. Julianna Peña has won 3 of her last 5 fights, with her most notable wins coming over former UFC women’s flyweight champion Nicco Montano (5-3-0) as well as Sara McMann (12-6-0). Training at Sikjitsu, Peña is best known for her wrestling prowess and submission abilities. She has solid enough striking to set up her grappling, but very much prefers to keep the fight on the mat. This is by far the biggest challenge of her career, as Nunes tends to be for any opponent. Peña has talked a lot of trash coming into this fight, repeatedly claiming that Nunes has been ducking her, and that she will be the best opponent the Lioness has ever faced. This has added a bit of heat to this fight, not that it really matters, as Nunes is the biggest favorite on the card at -800, with Peña being the +550 underdog. Quite frankly, I see no situation where Nunes loses this fight, but she’s such a massive favorite it makes taking her moneyline pointless. I’d take Nunes by KO, and I’m willing to throw a risky pick out there and take under 1.5 rounds. After Nunes dismantled Megan Anderson in about 2 minutes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar outcome.

Picks: Nunes by KO, Under 1.5 Rounds

Charles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier

Charles Oliveira: 31-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 19 Sub.

Dustin Poirier: 28-6-0, 15 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

The second title fight of the night and the main event, this is a fight with plenty of hype built around it. Two established UFC veterans, both of these fighters are extremely well-versed and skilled. Charles Oliveira is the current UFC lightweight champion, with Dustin Poirier being ranked #1 in the division. Charles Oliveira is one of the most accomplished UFC fighters of all time, holding the all time record for UFC finishes (17), the record for the most submissions (14), and has the second most performance bonuses of all time (17). He’s coming into this fight on a 9 fight win streak, notably defeating Michael Chandler (22-7-0), Tony Ferguson (26-6-0), and Jim Miller (33-16-0). Oliveira trains at the legendary Chute Boxe, and utilizes some of the most advanced grappling in the UFC, proven by his submission record. He also has very underrated striking, which may be less underrated now following his stunning KO of Michael Chandler. Oliveira can really do it all, but he’s at his best when the fight is on the ground. Dustin Poirier comes into this fight after winning 4 of his last 5 fights, beating Conor Mcgregor twice (22-6-0), Max Holloway (23-6-0), and Dan Hooker (21-11-0). Training at American Top Team, Poirier is best known for his excellent boxing, but also is a very solid grappler, particularly in the wrestling department. Opposite to Oliveira, while Poirier can also do it all, he’s at his best when the fight is on the feet. He has the ability to produce a quick knockout, but also can easily go a full 5 rounds. His wrestling should be put on display, as he’ll probably have to defend plenty of takedowns from the grappling ace Oliveira. Surprisingly, Poirier is the favorite at -160, with Oliveira the underdog at +135. I think people are far too quick to count Charles Oliveira out of this fight, just as they did when he fought Chandler. I’m going to make my boldest pick of the card and take Oliveira moneyline, but also there’s a very safe option in over 1.5 rounds. While both have created fast finishes recently, I think this fight sees at least the second round.

Picks:  Over 1.5 Rounds, Oliveira +135