UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus Preview

Coming off of one of the biggest cards of the year, in which we witnessed massive upsets and some incredible fights, we go into the final UFC fight card of the year. This card is headlined by a wild heavyweight matchup, Derrick Lewis vs Chris Daukaus. Both fighters being knockout artists in their own right, this is a great fight to cap off a great year in MMA. Throughout the card, there’s a scattering of prospects and veterans, all trying to pick up their final victories of 2021. There’s great fights from top to bottom on this Fight Night, and plenty to look forward to.

Prelims

Unlike a pay-per-view card, Fight Nights are not broken up into Prelims and Early Prelims, so instead of breaking down the entirety of the prelims, I’m simply picking my favorite fights from them and analyzing them.

Jordan Leavitt vs Matt Sayles

Lightweight Bout

Jordan Leavitt: 8-1-0, 1 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Matt Sayles: 8-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

The very first bout of this Fight Night, this is one of the biggest sleeper fights of the entire night. A classic striker vs. grappler matchup, I think this is a great way to kick off the card. Jordan Leavitt comes into this fight having won 4 of his last 5, as well as producing one of the best highlight finishes of 2020 with a slam KO of Matt Wiman (16-10-0). One of these victories came in the UFC, with another being a 1st round submission on the Contender Series over Jose Flores (9-2-0). Leavitt has shown striking ability, with decent hands and is able to mix in some kicks, but typically uses his striking to set up his takedowns. Training at Syndicate MMA, Leavitt largely resorts to hip throws and powerful double leg slams, quickly pursuing a variety of submissions when he does get the fight to the mat. With four 1st round submissions to his name, Leavitt is a very dangerous grappler, especially early on in a fight when he’s fresh. Matt Sayles comes into this bout with 3 wins in his last 5 fights, with notable wins over Kyle Nelson (13-4-0) and Christian Aguilera (14-8-0). Training at Alliance MMA, Sayles is a solid striker, mostly favoring power shots, throwing big bombs with his right hand and powerful kicks with his right leg. Sayles grappling isn’t excellent, but will usually resort to ground-and-pound if the fight goes to the floor. He’s only been finished once, coming in a submission loss to one of the hottest UFC prospects, Bryce Mitchell (14-1-0). This being his most recent loss, I think it may be a bit telling of the outcome of this upcoming bout with Leavitt. Seeing how easily Mitchell took down and dominated Sayles, I think Leavitt will experience similar success with his strong wrestling and excellent submission game. This fight surprisingly sits at even odds, with both fighters at -110. I really like Leavitt in this matchup, and I’d be shocked to see this one go to the judges. The safest pick would be under 2.5 rounds, and I expect to see Leavitt win by submission.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Leavitt by Sub.

Charles Jourdain vs Andre Ewell

Featherweight Bout

Charles Jourdain: 11-4-1, 8 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Andre Ewell: 17-8-0, 7 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

The fourth fight of the night, this a bout I’m surprised isn’t receiving more eyes. A matchup between two strikers, I expect this to be a war on the feet. Charles Jourdain comes into this fight having won only 2 of his last 5, with one of those fights being a draw. He has notable victories over Marcelo Rojo (16-8-0) and Dooho Choi (14-4-0). Training out of Acadamie Pro Star MMA, Jourdain is known for his flashy kickboxing style and excellent hands. Jourdain has finished every one of his victories, using a variety of strikes to attain these finishes including punches, kicks, knees, as well as flying and spinning attacks. Despite recent losses, Jourdain is never in a boring fight, such as a hard-fought submission loss to rising star Julian Erosa (26-10-0) and a war in a draw with Josh Culibao (9-1-1). Jourdain has the ability to be technical and use clean combos, but will also throw caution to the wind with flying knees and spinning kicks, making him an unpredictable and dangerous striker. Andre Ewell comes into this fight having also won 2 of his last 5, with victories over Irwin Rivera (10-6-0) and Jonathan Martinez (14-4-0). He also scored a notable victory in his UFC debut, winning a split decision over former UFC Bantamweight Champion Renan Barao (34-9-0). Training at Apex MMA, Ewell utilizes a karate-like striking style, fighting in a split stance with his hands often down at his waist. Ewell carries solid power, and like many karate fighters fires off plenty of lead leg kicks, often setting up his punches with his kicks. I think this fight has a chance to be one of the better scraps on the entire card, especially considering both could be fighting to keep their job. Jourdain is a -200 favorite, with Ewell a +170 underdog. I like Jourdain in this fight: I expect him to take advantage of Ewell’s hands-down striking style and either outclass him or pull off a wild knockout. Jourdain moneyline is the safest pick here, but I also like under 2.5 rounds, as I anticipate both fighters leaving it all in the Octagon this Saturday.

Picks: Jourdain -200, Under 2.5 rounds

Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry

Bantamweight Bout

Raoni Barcelos: 16-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Victor Henry: 21-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Another fight I’m surprised hasn’t garnered more attention, this is the 7th fight of the night, and a good one at that. Both fighters have a wealth of experience beyond the UFC, both having challenged for titles in other promotions. Raoni Barcelos comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, this year past June taking his first loss in 6 years to fellow prospect Timur Valiev (18-2-0). Barcelos, a former RFA Bantamweight Champion, has notable victories over Said Nurmagomedov (14-2-0) and Bobby Moffett (14-6-0). Training out of Rizzo RVT, Barcelos is dangerous wherever the fight goes. He has great striking, using a Muay Thai style and often throws devastating hooks, uppercuts, and leg kicks. He also is an excellent grappler, with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as some quality wrestling mixed in. Barcelos is a high energy, high pressure fighter that is constantly moving forward, looking to either land big strikes or a takedown whenever the opportunity presents itself. Victor Henry comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, with this being his UFC debut. His most notable victory being over top UFC prospect Kyler Phillips (9-2-0), this is by no way Henry’s introduction to the big leagues of MMA. Henry has fought in King of the Cage, BAMMA, Pancrase, Deep, and Rizin, even fighting for a title in a losing effort against Shintaro Ishiwatari (26-9-4) in Pancrase. Henry, training out of UWF-USA, seems to be a pretty pure MMA fighter, slightly favoring ground exchanges, but still very willing to go at it on the feet. Henry has good hands and likes to throw a lot of head and low kicks, as well as an excellent ability to throw strikes, particularly knees, in the clinch. He also seems more likely to get a takedown from the clinch than out in the open, utilizing a lot of bodylocks and trips. Like Barcelos, he’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes. Barcelos is the favorite at -310, with Henry the underdog at +250. While Henry has plenty of experience, I think Barcelos is just a bit better in every aspect of the fight, with more technical striking and seemingly higher level grappling, especially in the BJJ department. Despite Barcelos seeing decisions in his last three fights, I like the under 2.5, as well As Barcelos by KO/TKO. I see him really putting on a show in this fight, whether its on the ground or the feet, and picking up the victory by finish.

Picks: Barcelos by KO/TKO, Under 2.5

Main Card

Cub Swanson vs. Darren Elkins

Featherweight Bout

Cub Swanson: 27-12-0, 12 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Darren Elkins: 27-9-0, 10 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

A fight between two great UFC veterans, we have another classic matchup of striker vs. grappler. Cub Swanson comes into this fight with 2 wins in his last five fights, scoring victories over Kron Gracie (5-1-0) and Daniel Pineda (27-14-0). He also has notable victories over current UFC Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira (32-8-0) and former UFC Interim Lightweight Champion Dustin Poirier (28-7-0). Training at the excellent Jackson-Wink MMA, Cub Swanson is a UFC mainstay that has been supplying fans with exciting fights for nearly two decades. Swanson is an excellent striker, known for throwing thunderous, looping hooks, devastating leg kicks, and constant forward motion. Swanson will often charge forward to throw big combos, mostly consisting of hooks and straights, but also has a great kicking game and will throw a variety of attacks with his legs. “Killer” Cub also has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and will mix in wrestling on occasion, but has been submitted 7 times in his career and will mostly keep the fight standing. Darren Elkins has similarly won 2 of his last five, but those two wins were in his last two bouts, those being over Darrick Minner (26-13-0) and Eduardo Garagorri (13-2). He also has notable victories over Duane Ludwig (22-14-0) and Michael Johnson (20-17-0). Elkins has made a name for himself through both his excellent wrestling and legendary toughness, earning the name tattooed on his chest, “The Damage.” Training out of a great camp in Team Alpha Male, Elkins uses boxing style striking, fighting behind his jab and mainly using his striking to set up his takedowns. When the fight does go to the ground, Elkins will mostly go for ground and pound, but will occasionally pursue a choke. Swanson is a -200 favorite, putting Elkins at a +170 underdog. This is a super tough fight to pick a winner in: both are 20+ fight veterans of the UFC, so there’s very few situations either of these men haven’t been in. I think the safest bet would be over 2.5 rounds, as Elkins rarely gets finished, and I think Swanson has intelligent enough ground game to not get finished on the bottom. I’m going to go with Swanson on this one, I think he has vastly superior striking and his wrestling and jiu-jitsu should be good enough to fend off Elkins.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Swanson -200

Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Lightweight Bout

Diego Ferreira: 17-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Mateusz Gamrot: 19-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

A fight I think easily could’ve been the co-main, this is a fascinating matchup. Diego Ferreira has won 3 of his last 5, with noteworthy victories over former UFC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis (24-12-0) and Rustam Khabilov (24-4-0). Training at the great Fortis MMA, Ferreira utilizes a brawling style in the stand up, throwing a lot of heavy straight punches and looping hooks, as well as applying forward pressure. Ferreira has excellent BJJ, and prefers to take the fight to the ground, but is more than willing to stand and exchange. Despite his grappling pedigree as a medalist in both the Pan-American and Nogi World Jiu-Jitsu Championships, he actually has more knockouts in his UFC career than submissions. Ferreira isn’t the most polished striker, often blitzing forward to throw wild combos, but does carry good power in his hands. His grappling ability keeps his opponents concerned enough about takedowns, improving the effectiveness of his striking much of the time. Mateusz Gamrot has found victories in 4 of his last 5 fights, with significant wins coming over Jeremy Stephens (28-19-0) and Scott Holtzman (14-5-0). Gamrot, a former KSW Lightweight Champion, is extremely well rounded and able to pull of wild knockouts as well as brutal submissions. Training at the excellent American Top Team, “Gamer” is a great technical striker with beautiful boxing combos and a solid kicking game to complement his hands. Gamrot also possesses great footwork and head movement, which aids him in his wrestling as it can often disguise his takedowns. Mateusz Gamrot is the favorite at -195, with Ferreira the underdog at +165. I think Gamrot’s high level striking will prove too much for Ferreira, as well as his defensive wrestling being too good for Ferreira to get the fight where he’s more comfortable. I’m taking Gamrot by KO/TKO, as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Gamrot by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 Rounds

#12 Raphael Assuncao vs. Ricky Simon

Bantamweight Bout

Raphael Assuncao: 27-8-0, 4 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.

Ricky Simon: 18-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Another fight featuring a long time veteran of the UFC, this is a very interesting fight. Raphael Assuncao has been in the UFC for a decade now, and comes into this fight having won 2 of his last five fights. This is Assuncao’s first fight since being on the receiving end of a brutal knockout by former UFC Bantamweight Champion Cody Garbrandt (12-5-0). Assuncao has notable victories over former UFC Bantamweight Champion TJ Dillashaw (18-4-0) and current UFC Bantamweight “Champion” Aljamain Sterling (20-3-0). Training at Ascension MMA, he utilizes a patient boxing style when on the feet, often waiting for openings and counter-striking opportunities. Assuncao has a black belt in BJJ, and thus has an excellent submission game and solid wrestling, but also is a good defensive grappler, able to defend takedowns well. While not quite the veteran his opponent is, Ricky Simon has still managed to rack up 8 UFC fights in just 3 years. Simon, a former LFA Bantamweight Champion, comes into this fight with 3 victories in his last 5 bouts. He has significant wins over Merab Dvalishvili (14-4-0) and Ray Borg (14-5-0). Simon is best known for his wrestling, using powerful double legs and slams to drag his opponent to the mat, where he’ll typically look to use his ground-and-pound and top control to find victories. Simon does also have solid striking, possessing good speed and power in his hands. He tends to use big, looping combinations to set up his takedowns, and is very proficient in the clinch. Simon is a decent favorite at -280, with Assuncao being a +230 underdog. I’m surprised Simon is getting that big of an edge in this fight, but I think people are weary when it comes on betting on Assuncao after the Garbrandt KO. The safest pick here is definitely over 2.5 rounds, as Simon has seen the judges 5 times in his 8 UFC fights, and Assuncao 10 times in his 16 UFC fights. I could very easily see this fight going either way, but I’m going to take Simon. I hate picking up a moneyline favorite that big, but I really don’t see Simon finishing him, I see him taking a Unanimous Decision via dominant wrestling.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Simon -280

#11 Amanda Lemos vs. #12 Angela Hill

Strawweight Bout

Amanda Lemos: 10-1-1, 7 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Angela Hill: 13-10-0, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

One of three female fights on the card, this is definitely the best of the three. Amanda Lemos has been an absolute wrecking ball in her short career, finishing all but one of her wins, coming into this fight having won 4 of her last 5. She really doesn’t have any big names she’s taken out though, with her most notable wins over Livinha Souza (14-4-0) and Montserrat Conejo (10-2-0). Training with the Marajo Brothers Team, Lemos is known for her explosive hands, constantly moving forward and throwing big, vicious combos. She also has solid grappling ability, mostly securing takedowns in the clinch where she’s especially dangerous, often landing big shots from close when she isn’t pursuing a takedown. “Amandinha” won her last two fights by first round knockout, getting both with her devastating hands. 8 of her twelve professional fights didn’t make it out the first round, proving she’s at her most dangerous early on in the fight. Angela Hill has won 2 of her last five fights, all of which went to decision. Living up to her nickname, “Overkill” has incredibly managed to have 15 fights in the UFC since 2017, with noteworthy victories over Hannah Cifers (10-7-0) and Ashley Yoder twice (8-8-0). Hill, who went 16-0 in kickboxing prior to her MMA career, is unsurprisingly known for her technical muay thai striking and forward pressure. Training at Alliance MMA, She is also a capable wrestler, able to mix in the occasional takedown, but largely favors stand up. Amanda Lemos is a massive favorite at -360, the biggest favorite on the card, with Angela Hill the underdog at +280. While Lemos has garnered quite a bit of hype, she really hasn’t faced serious competition, with 3 of her five UFC victories coming over opponents with less than 4 UFC bouts. The safest bet here would be over 2.5 rounds, Hill has never been knocked out and has seen the judges in all of her last 5 fights. Hill is one of my favorite female fighters in MMA, and I’m going to go with my bias here and take Angela Hill. This is a huge step up in competition for Lemos, and I think she may struggle with the pace that Hill keeps, especially considering how short many of Lemos’ fights have been.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Hill +280

#5 Stephen Thompson vs. #10 Belal Muhammad

Welterweight Bout

Stephen Thompson: 16-5-1, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Belal Muhammad: 19-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

A fight that easily could’ve been the main event of its own Fight Night, this is a very interesting matchup that I don’t imagine many predicted prior to its booking. Stephen Thompson is one of the absolute best strikers in MMA, coming into this bout having won 2 of his last 5. With noteworthy victories over former UFC Welterweight Champion Johny Hendricks (18-8-0) and Jorge Masvidal (35-15-0), Thompson always puts on a show, whether it’s a loss or a victory. One of the last true specialists in MMA, Thompson has become famous for his karate-based striking, utilizing a split leg stance, constant attacks with his front leg, and long straight punches. Training with Team Upstate Karate, “Wonderboy” went 58-0 in kickboxing prior to his MMA career. You’ll practically never see Thompson initiate grappling exchanges, but has shown improvement on the ground, especially in his defensive wrestling. Belal Muhammad has found victory in 4 of his last 5 fights, and has impressive wins over Demian Maia (28-11-0) and Tim Means (32-12-1). Primarily a wrestler, Muhammad prefers to take the fight to the mat, using his strong double leg takedowns to drag his opponents to the floor and land ground and pound. When the fight is on the feet, Muhammad uses a heavy handed boxing style, throwing lots of technical combinations, often using his punching ability to get in close for a takedown. Thompson is the favorite, coming in at -230, putting Muhammad as the underdog at +190. I can’t imagine Muhammad is going to want to exchange much on the feet, but I think Thompson should have solid enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing. Due to this, I’m going with Thompson moneyline, with my safest pick being over 2.5 rounds. I see Thompson outclassing Muhammad and gassing him out by defending takedowns, but I don’t anticipate a finish, as both men have gone to decisions in the majority of their fights.

Picks: Over 2.5 Rounds, Thompson -230

#3 Derrick Lewis vs. #7 Chris Daukaus

Heavyweight Bout

Derrick Lewis: 25-8-0, 20 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Chris Daukaus: 12-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

The main event of the night, this is bound to be a wild, heavy handed brawl. Derrick Lewis, the record holder for most UFC heavyweight knockouts with 12, comes into this fight having won 4 of his last 5. Training out of Grind House Fitness, Lewis has significant victories over current UFC Heavyweight Champion Francis Ngannou (16-3-0) and Curtis Blaydes (15-3-0). Famous for his kill-or-be-killed style, Lewis has some of the most powerful punches in all of the UFC, arguably only matched by Francis Ngannou. When striking, Lewis has a very unique, patient style which he uses to catch his opponents off guard with his massive power. Surprisingly for someone of his stature, he has shown the ability to throw powerful kicks, and even the occasional jumping kick, but will mostly use his hands to do damage. He doesn’t often initiate grappling exchanges, and is well known for his rather non-technical wrestling style of “just getting up,” but can do serious damage if he gets on top of someone. Chris Daukaus has been red hot, winning 5 of his last 5 fights, all by knockout, with 4 of them coming in the first round. Daukaus scored notable wins over Aleksei Oleinik (59-16-1) and Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0), and is by far one of the biggest heavyweight prospects in the division right now. Training out of Martinez BJJ, Daukaus possesses shocking speed for a heavyweight, using his excellent boxing to overwhelm his opponents with sheer volume and power. Similar to Lewis, he rarely takes the fight to the mat, but possesses solid clinchwork, a black belt in BJJ, as well as good defensive wrestling. Daukaus is very unique to the heavyweight division, using volume to put people asleep opposed to the one-punch power we see many heavyweights use to get finishes. Chris Daukaus is a small favorite at -135, with Lewis the underdog at +115. I’d be absolutely shocked to see this fight go 5 rounds, but at the same time I think both fighters are too tough to go out in the first. I’ll take over 1.5 rounds on this fight, but I think Daukaus moneyline is the safer bet. I think Daukaus is too smart to fall for Lewis’ tricks, and his speed will ultimately be the difference maker, landing at volume and simply overwhelming Lewis. This pains me to say, as I like most others love Derrick Lewis, but I don’t see him taking this one.

Picks: Daukaus -135, Over 1.5 Rounds