UFC 270 Preview

The first pay-per view card of the year has arrived, and it is absolutely loaded. There’s two fights on this card, though, that most people will be watching for, being the main and co-main events. In the co-main, flyweight champion Brandon Moreno looks to defend his belt in a trilogy fight with rival Deiveson Figueiredo. In the main event, what’s probably the most hyped fight since the Brock Lesnar era, Francis Ngannou will defend his strap against the red hot Ciryl Gane. From top to bottom, this card is stacked with excellent fights, and should be a great way to start the new year.

This is a particularly short article due to multiple changes to the card on the Thursday and Friday, resulting in both the prelims and main card completely changing. Due to how late notice these changes were, there wasn’t enough time to do the research required for the fights replacing the ones removed.

Prelims

This preview was written when this fight was first scheduled, the Lewis vs. Daukaus Fight Night. Very little time has passed, and the matchup is the exact same, so essentially nothing has changed since this was written. You can check out the original article here: Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus

Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry

Bantamweight Bout

Raoni Barcelos: 16-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Victor Henry: 21-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

A fight I’m surprised hasn’t garnered more attention, this is the 6th fight of the night, and a good one at that. Both fighters have a wealth of experience beyond the UFC, both having challenged for titles in other promotions. Raoni Barcelos comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, taking his first loss in 6 years to fellow prospect Timur Valiev (18-2-0) in June 2020. Barcelos, a former RFA Bantamweight Champion, has notable victories over Said Nurmagomedov (14-2-0) and Bobby Moffett (14-6-0). Training out of Rizzo RVT, Barcelos is dangerous wherever the fight goes. He has great striking, using a Muay Thai style and often throws devastating hooks, uppercuts, and leg kicks. He also is an excellent grappler, with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as some quality wrestling mixed in. Barcelos is a high energy, high pressure fighter that is constantly moving forward, looking to either land big strikes or a takedown whenever the opportunity presents itself. Victor Henry comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, with this being his UFC debut. His most notable victory being over top UFC prospect Kyler Phillips (9-2-0), this is by no way Henry’s introduction to the big leagues of MMA. Henry has fought in King of the Cage, BAMMA, Pancrase, Deep, and Rizin, even fighting for a title in a losing effort against Shintaro Ishiwatari (26-9-4) in Pancrase. Henry, training out of UWF-USA, seems to be a pretty pure MMA fighter, slightly favoring ground exchanges, but still very willing to go at it on the feet. Henry has good hands and likes to throw a lot of head and low kicks, as well as an excellent ability to throw strikes, particularly knees, in the clinch. He also seems more likely to get a takedown from the clinch than out in the open, utilizing a lot of bodylocks and trips. Like Barcelos, he’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes. Barcelos is a huge favorite at -490, with Henry the underdog at +370. Barcelos somehow managed to become an even bigger favorite than when this fight was originally scheduled. While Henry has plenty of experience, I think Barcelos is just a bit better in every aspect of the fight, with more technical striking and seemingly higher level grappling, especially in the BJJ department. Despite Barcelos seeing decisions in his last three fights, I like the under 2.5, as well As Barcelos by KO/TKO. I see him really putting on a show in this fight, whether its on the ground or the feet, and picking up the victory by finish.

Picks: Barcelos by KO/TKO, Under 2.5

Main Card

Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles

Welterweight Bout

Michael Morales: 12-0-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Trevin Giles: 14-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

The second fight of the prelims, this is a great matchup of up-and-comers. Michael Morales comes into this fight undefeated, although with limited big stage experience, mostly fighting in regional promotions in South America. His last fight was a victory on Dana White’s Contender Series over Nikolay Veretennikov (9-4-0), which he won by an impressive unanimous decision. Morales is known for his technical kickboxing on his feet, often staying patient and fighting behind his jab until finding opportunities to let his hands go. Morales is a good combo striker, and does a great job setting things up with his jab, throwing a lot of one-two combos or blitzing forward to throw long, devastating hooks and straights. Training at Xtreme Fitness Machala, Morales is also a solid grappler, focusing on the ground and pound when the fight hits the mat. He does seem to struggle a little bit with wrestling out in the open, as in his Contender Series bout he failed to finish on two single leg takedown attempts. He did have great success in the clinch though, with three powerful bodylock slams in which he practically ragdolled his opponent. He has a great sense of urgency when fighting, clearly knowing when to go in for the kill, and is constantly looking for the finish but not gassin himself out in doing so. Trevin Giles has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and has wins over James Krause (28-9-0), Ryan Spann (19-7-0), and Brendan Allen (17-5-0). Giles is an aggressive boxer on the feet, often waiting to find an angle before exploding forward with huge, hook-heavy combinations. Giles has good power in both hands, and seemingly never puts punches out there to touch his opponent, throwing every punch with fight-ending intentions. He is also a talented grappler, with great top control and an ability to go into deep waters on the bottom, proven by him surviving James Krause on his back for practically half a round. He will usually use his ground and pound, but will also pursue chokes on the ground to finish his opponent. Training at W4R Training Center, Like his opponent, Giles relentlessly pursues the finish, and is willing to stay standing or go to the ground to find it. This has sometimes been a problem for him, gassing himself out and getting sloppy with his striking. Outside of his most recent loss to hot prospect Dricus Du Plessis (16-2-0), he has only lost to veterans in Gerald Meerschaert (34-14-0) and Zak Cummings (24-7-0). Michael Morales is a very slight favorite at -120, with Giles the underdog at -110. The odds on this fight are so tight for a reason; we really have no idea what to expect out of Morales. This is his first fight on a big stage, and against an experienced opponent as well. Giles tendency to get sloppy with his boxing could play to Morales’ favor with his more technical kickboxing, but at the same time Morales could find himself in serious trouble if Giles gets on top of him. I’ll definitely take under 2.5 rounds, both guys always go for the finish so the only way I see this fight going the distance is if both guys gas out. I will very cautiously pick Morales to win, I think if he can stay technical on the feet he could pick Giles apart, he just really can’t get taken down.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Morales -120

Cody Stamann vs. Said Nurmagomedov

Bantamweight Bout

Cody Stamann: 19-4-1, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Said Nurmagomedov: 14-2-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

If you see the name Nurmagomedov, it’s practically guaranteed to be an entertaining fight. Said Nurmagomedov has won 4 of his last 5, with his most notable victory coming over Ricardo Ramos (15-4-0). While his last name is practically synonymous with dominant wrestling, he actually favors the stand up, where he utilizes flashy kickboxing to get the job done. Training at Akhmat Fight Team, Nurmagomedov has solid power in both his hands and kicks, and loves to throw out wild attacks like flying double knees and spinning kicks. He is Dagastani, so he does of course possess grappling abilities, showing solid wrestling and top control. He is most dangerous on the feet at range, where he can utilize his kicking game and speed to damage his opponents. While some of his more wild attacks may appear to be for show, he does a lot of damage with his spinning attacks, especially to the body. Thanks to his wrestling capabilities, he has good takedown defense and does a good job of keeping the fight where he wants it, when he wants it. Cody Stamann has won 2 of his last 5 with one draw, with his best victories coming over Brian Caraway (21-10-0) and Brian Kelleher 24-12-0). Training at Michigan Top Team, Stamann is best known as a wrestler but does have decent striking, using a boxing style on the feet and often fighting in the pocket and throwing solid punch combinations. He does have the ability to mix in kicks, often throwing front kicks to the head and body. Unsurprisingly for a wrestler, Stamann has solid takedowns and top control, and will use his ground and pound more often than pursuing submissions. Stamann has struggled when given high level competition, with losses against #6 ranked bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili (14-4-0) and current bantamweight “champion” Aljamain Sterling (20-3-0). He has shown an ability to take a shot, having never been knocked out in his entire career and only being finished once by submission. Nurmagomedov is the favorite here at -190, with Stamann the underdog at +160. While Stamann is certainly tough, I think Nurmagomedov’s wrestling background will allow him to keep the fight standing, where he is much more skilled and comfortable than his opponent. He should be able to use his kickboxing to pick off Stamann at range. I’ll take Nurmagomedov moneyline, as well as over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Nurmagomedov -190, Under 2.5 rounds

Michel Pereira vs. Andre Fialho

Welterweight Bout

Michel Pereira: 26-11-0, 10 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Andre Fialho: 14-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Honestly, it almost doesn’t even matter who Michel Pereira fights, because you’re guaranteed to see something weird happen. Michel Pereira comes into this bout having won 3 of his last 5, with victories over Niko Price (15-5-0), Khaos Williams (13-2-0) and Danny Roberts (18-5-0). Pereira is certainly one of the most unique fighters in the UFC, known for his wild antics within the cage including but not limited to backflips, open hand slaps, backflipping onto his opponent, and a lot of taunting. Training with Scorpion Fighting System, beyond all the silliness, Pereira does possess legitimate knockout power in his hands, has powerful kicks, and some flashy kickboxing skills. He also has a large amount of experience outside the UFC, fighting all over Brazil and Asia and seemingly as often as possible, having fought 9 times in 2013 alone, along with 7 times in 2018. His unorthodox style has proved a problem to his opponents, as it’s virtually impossible to know what he’ll throw next, and he throws everything with power. When I watched some of his earlier UFC fights (particularly his loss to Tristan Connelly), it seemed his strange antics were a distraction and waste of energy for him, causing him to gas out and make a lot of simple mistakes. For instance, hitting Diego Sanchez (31-13-0) with an illegal knee, or gassing himself out and getting dominated on the ground against Tristan Connelly (14-7-0). This doesn’t seem to be quite as much of an issue now, as he’s found decision victories in his last two bouts and showed both improved cardio and better focus. Andre Fialho has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with his most notable victory being a knockout win over James Vick (13-6-0). Fialho on the feet is a classic brawler, going straight to the middle of the octagon to throw big right hands and powerful leg kicks. He can take a shot, usually able to recover when he takes big damage. Training at a solid camp in Sanford MMA, Fialho loves to hang in the pocket and exchange, throwing plenty of hooks and mixing in kicks with his punching combos. Fialho isn’t a particularly technical striker, but does have decent counter punching and can throw kicks at range. This is his first UFC fight, but has fought multiple times in both the PFL and Bellator. Michel Pereira is a decent favorite at -280, leaving Fialho the +230 underdog. Pereira is a favorite for a reason, Fialho is coming in on short notice, and making his UFC debut as well. I do think Fialho will make this at least somewhat competitive, but Pereira has much higher level striking and should pick up the win here. I’m taking Pereira by KO/TKO, as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Pereira by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Flyweight Title Bout

Brandon Moreno: 19-5-2, 3 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.

Deiveson Figueiredo: 20-2-1, 9 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

The first of two title fights, this is the third consecutive time we’ll see these two go to war. Brandon Moreno has won 4 of his last 5, with 1 draw against his opponent this weekend, Figueiredo. Moreno has victories over #4 ranked flyweight Brandon Royval (13-6-0), #6 ranked flyweight Kai Kara-France (23-9-0), and of course former UFC flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Training at Entram Gym, On the feet Moreno uses crisp boxing and solid combinations to put damage on his opponent, possessing more speed than power like most flyweights. He does a good job of being patient and finding openings, but also has a great chin and can eat some powerful shots. Although he’s pretty technical, he’s not afraid to engage in huge exchanges, really letting his hands go and throwing power shots. Don’t let those 11 submissions fool you, Moreno is not a grappling specialist, he’s well rounded and is comfortable wherever the fight goes. When on the mat, Moreno will use ground and pound but also chase submissions, particularly the rear naked choke which makes up 6 of his 11 submission victories. He has both good wrestling and great BJJ, being a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Moreno also posesses good takedown defense, often able to work out of the positions and show solid clinchwork. He can easily go 5 rounds, not only using his toughness but also his excellent cardio. Deiveson Figueiredo has won 3 of his last five with one draw, with wins over Joseph Benavidez twice (28-8-0) and Alex Perez (24-6-0). Figueiredo possess unusual power for a flyweight, throwing devastating hooks regularly along with powerful kicks, often to the body. This may have to do with him having a pretty large weight cut, even saying he would consider a move to bantamweight. While this does allow him superb power in his hands, it has shown a bit of an effect on his cardio, as in his two fights with Moreno he did fade as the fights went on. Like his opponent, he is also a black belt in BJJ, and often times will drop his opponent on the feet then pursue the submission. Training with Team Figueiredo, He is willing to engage in grappling scenarios, having a solid guard on the bottom and able to do significant damage from the top when not pursuing the submission. Moreno is the favorite at -190, with Figueiredo the underdog at +160. I do think Figueiredo is too big of an underdog, but at the same time, I don’t expect him to win this fight. I think Moreno figured him out in their first fight, which was very evident in Moreno’s dominant victory in their second fight. Figueiredo continues to claim he’s better prepared, but his demeanor is identical to how he acted prior to the second fight, seemingly overlooking Moreno. I’ll take Moreno moneyline, as well as over 3.5 rounds.

Picks: Moreno -190, Over 3.5 rounds

Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane

Heavyeweight Title Bout

Francis Ngannou: 16-3-0, 12 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Ciryl Gane: 10-0-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

This fight really needs no introduction: this is what people are watching this card to see. Francis Ngannou has won all 5 of his last bouts, scoring vicious KO wins in all five, most impressively over Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-3-0), Curtis Blaydes (15-3-0) and a championship victory over Stipe Miocic (20-4-0). Ngannou is famous for his unbelievable punching power, able to put guys to sleep with either hand and seemingly with ease. Training at the legendary Xtreme Couture, Ngannou has really reinvented himself since his title loss against Stipe Miocic, greatly improving his boxing skill as well as his patience. He used to have a tendency to come out like a madman, throwing crazy hooks and trying to get his opponent out of there as fast as possible. Now, he’s more content to be patient and stay technical, actually boxing and not just throwing bombs all the time. He also showed improvement in his grappling, particularly his wrestling. He was able to defend takedowns from then-champion Stipe Miocic, keep the fight in his comfort zone on the feet. He also has acquired a bit of a kicking game, putting just as much power into his kicks as his punches. Ciryl Gane has won all of his last 5 bouts, with wins over Alexander Volkov (34-9-0), former UFC heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos (21-9-0), and an interim heavyweight title win over Derrick Lewis (26-8-0). Gane is one of the most technical strikers we’ve ever seen in the heavyweight division, using excellent Muay Thai to damage his opponents. He’s able to throw a variety of strikes from punches, kicks, knees, elbows, and throw all of those with power. While he’s become known for his striking, he also has solid grappling, having 2 submission wins in the UFC, one of which was a heel hook. I’d say his wrestling and BJJ are pretty equal, he has solid takedowns as well as top control, able to do a lot of damage with his ground and pound or submit his opponent. He’s willing to exchange in the pocket but is also excellent at range, throwing plenty of kicks both high and low, as well as crisp combinations with his hands. He went 13-0 professionally in Muay Thai, proving that the last thing you want to do with Ciryl Gane is have a kickboxing match. Surprisingly, Gane is the favorite here at -150, putting the champion Ngannou as the underdog at +125. This may be the hardest fight I’ve ever tried to predict: Gane is more technically sound than Ngannou, but Ngannou has the ultimate equalizer in his unbelievable power. I honestly don’t even know how to pick the rounds, this could easily go 1 round or 5 depending on who’s leading the exchanges. At this point, I think my only choice is to go with my gut and take Ngannou. Having him as a decent size underdog seems ridiculous to me. I’ll take over 2.5 rounds as well, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it was a quick one. If I’m being honest, I think it might be a better idea to just watch this one and not put any money on it, this is such a toss up.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Ngannou +125