UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland

After yet another break, we’re back with the second fight night of the year. With an important middleweight fight in the main event, we’ll see the streaking Sean Strickland against the experienced Jack Hermansson. A win in this fight could put either fighter into the title conversation at 185 pounds, with both men right on the cusp of it as it is. Outside the main event, this is an excellent card and in my opinion personifies what a Fight Night should be; nothing crazy in terms of star power, just quality fights and interesting matchups. This card should have non-stop action from start to finish, and I can’t wait to see how the fights play out.

Prelims

Chidi Njokuani vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Middleweight Bout

Chidi Njokuani: 20-7-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Marc-Andre Barriault: 13-4-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A fight seemingly destined to play out on the feet, this is a good matchup of powerful strikers. Njokuani has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and has victories over Melvin Guillard (32-21-2), Max Griffin (18-8-0), and Andre Fialho (14-4-0). While this is his UFC debut, this is by no means his first fight in the big leagues, having fought in Bellator from 2015-2019, even headlining cards three times. Njokuani definitely prefers to keep the fight on the feet, using a patient muay thai style, throwing a variety of attacks with his lead leg. He constantly uses feints and is willing to wait for openings, rarely overextending on his shots and remains technical throughout the fight. Training at Janjira Muay Thai, Njokuani has excellent knees in the clinch, but has struggled when taken to the ground, with 3 losses by submission in his career. He is a veteran of the sport, starting his career in 2007, and has been fighting high level competition for a majority of his career. Njokuani found his way into the UFC after scoring an impressive 3rd round knockout over Brazilian prospect Mario Sousa (12-2-0) after rocking his opponent numerous times during the bout as well as showing an improvement in his offensive grappling. Barriault has won 2 of his last 5 fights with one draw, with his best win coming over Abu Azaitar (14-3-1). Barriault also tends to favor striking, but is much more of a brawler, often throwing big hooks and fighting in the pocket. “Power Bar” has solid power in both hands, and will also mix in leg kicks in his constant pursuit of a finish. When the fight hits the ground, he’s shown decent top control and throws equally as big shots as he does on the feet, proven by the complete lack of submissions on his record. Barriault has solid defensive wrestling, having a takedown defense percentage of 70%, but I don’t anticipate him using that much in this fight. Training at a great camp in Sanford MMA, he has shown solid cardio in recently, landing over 100 strikes in his last two UFC Fights. Although his cardio has looked good lately, he definitely isn’t a volume striker, often blitzing forward to throw power shots, especially with his right hand. While he can generate serious power with both hands, he does seem to be a bit obvious with his striking sometimes as he is constantly pursuing the knockout blow. Barriault is a slight favorite in this one at -120, putting Njokuani as the +100 underdog. I’m surprised Barriault is the favorite, Njokuani has considerably better experience at the highest levels of the sport, but Barriault does have a great camp which usually means a good gameplan. I’m still going to take Njokuani though, I think the technicality of his Muay Thai and his composure will be the difference here, as well his experience as a pro. Rounds are pretty tough to pick on this one, both guys are pretty tough but have found finishes recently, so I’ll take under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Njokuani +100, Under 2.5 Rounds

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Michael Trizano

Featherweight Bout

Hakeem Dawodu: 12-2-1, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Michael Trizano: 10-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Dawodu has found wins in 4 of his last 5 fights, with his most significant wins coming over Julio Arce (17-5-0) and Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1). Dawodu uses a very measured, kickboxing style, constantly moving in and out of range and using good head movement to avoid taking damage. He has solid power with both his hands and legs, and his attacks vary from spinning kicks to fundamental boxing. Although he can throw some crazy strikes, he does a good job of staying composed and patiently counter striking, often capitalizing on his opponents mistakes to land big shots to the head and body. He has struggled with takedown defense in the past, getting taken down 9 times in his last fight by top prospect Movsar Evloev (15-0-0). Despite this, he did last all three rounds, so he has been in deep waters and made it out, proving the quality of both his cardio and toughness. Training at Champion’s Creed MMA, Dawodu hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his UFC career, so it’s pretty obvious where he’s most comfortable. He’s at his best when he takes the middle of the octagon, forcing his opponent to the outside as well as on their backfoot where they’re more likely to make mistakes, and he can really damage them with his counter punching. Trizano comes into this fight having won 4 of his last 5, with notable wins over Ludovit Klein (17-4-0) and Luis Pena (9-3-0), as well as having won the 27th season of The Ultimate Fighter. On the feet, Trizano has a patient, boxing style, fighting behind his jab and finding opportunities to land powerful hooks or big combinations. Trizano does a good job of managing distance, coming into the pocket to land shots and quickly getting back out to range. Training at Team Tiger Schulman, Trizano does mix in some kicks with his boxing, throwing mostly to the body and legs. “The Lone Wolf” has also shown some solid cardio, keeping the same pace and carrying the same power over a full three rounds. Like his opponent, he has struggled a bit with takedown defense, having been taken down in all of his UFC fights, but outside of his loss to Grant Dawson (17-1-1) he went on to outstrike all his UFC opponents, so he is able to work out of bad ground situations. With two submissions on his record, he certainly has some BJJ ability, but definitely prefers to keep the fight the feet where he can put his boxing to work. Dawodu is the favorite at -170, with Trizano the underdog at +145. I feel pretty safe taking over 2.5 rounds, both guys have seen decisions in 4 of there last 5 outings, but taking a winner is a bit harder. They both are solid technical strikers, so it’s going to come down to who’s got the better technique. I think Dawodu’s counter punching will make the difference in this one, Trizano will want to be coming forward and throwing big shots and I think Dawodu has the head movement and footwork to counter that. I’ll take Dawodu moneyline.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Dawodu -170

Miles Johns vs. John Castaneda

Bantamweight Bout

Miles Johns: 12-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

John Castaneda: 18-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

One of multiple striker vs striker matchups on the night, this is another fight that should be fireworks. Johns has won 4 of his last 5 outings, with his most notable victories coming over Adrian Yanez (15-3-0), Anderson Dos Santos (21-9-0), and Kevin Natividad (9-3-0). Johns has serious power in both hands, but does a good job of staying technical with his boxing and utilizes great footwork. Johns will mix up his strikes regularly, switching between attacks to the head and body as well as throwing powerful leg kicks. He tends to stay patient and use plenty of feints to find openings, then proceed to throw precise and powerful shots, usually in combinations. Johns has shown he can grapple, landing three takedowns in his Contender Series fight, but recently has been sticking to his striking, not attempting a takedown in his last three fights. He also has an outstanding takedown defense percentage, sitting at 92% in his UFC tenure. Training at Fortis MMA, Johns has shown that he can carry his power across three rounds, with his last two victories being third round knockouts. Castaneda has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his best wins coming over Eddie Wineland (24-15-1) and Marcelo Rojo (16-8-0). Castaneda, like his opponent, is a patient power striker who loves throwing bombs and fighting in the pocket. Castaneda carries good power in his hands and will also mix in a decent variety of kicks to the legs, head, and body, but would definitely rather fight in a phone booth than at range. Training at The Academy (that’s actually what it’s called), “Sexy Mexi” is capable of grappling if the fight hits the mat, and will grab a choke if given the chance, evident in the 5 submission wins on his record. He has shown an ability to eat a shot as well as weather a storm, shown in his decision loss to Nathaniel Wood (17-5-0). Johns is the favorite in this fight at -190, making Castaneda the +160 underdog. I will admit my bias as a fan of Miles Johns, but I think he’s the favorite for a reason in this fight. His striking is a lot more technical than Castaneda, has more UFC experience, and I think he has the edge in power. I’m going to take Miles Johns moneyline, as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Johns -190, Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

I didn’t cover the Tresean Gore vs. Bryan Battle fight, as for whatever reason the 12th episode of The Ultimate Fighter (which is the semifinals of the show) isn’t on ESPN+ or UFC Fight Pass, so I could only find a single fight of Tresean Gore’s. I can’t really properly research a fighter if I can’t see their fights, and considering he has only 3 pro fights in his career, using just statistics for reference doesn’t paint a very clear picture of how he fights.

Julian Erosa vs. Steven Peterson

Featherweight Bout

Julian Erosa: 26-10-0, 11 KO/TKO, 12 Sub

Steven Peterson: 19-9-0, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

A bout between two well rounded and experienced fighters, there should be plenty of action in this one. Erosa has won 4 of his last five fights, with impressive wins over Charles Jourdain (12-4-1), Nate Landwehr (15-4-0), and Sean Woodson (9-1-0). Erosa is a finisher in every way, only going to decision once in 9 UFC fights. One of multiple TUF alums on this card, Erosa is extremely well rounded, able to knock you out on the feet or tap you on the mat. “Juicy J” has a very upright boxing style, and is much more of a volume striker than a power striker. He keeps it very loose on the feet, often putting his hands down and using head movement to avoid damage then responding with stiff, almost Wanderlei Silva type hooks. He has a very dangerous submission game, and doesn’t even need to take the fight to the floor to find submissions, beating Charles Jourdain with a standing d’arce choke in his last victory. Erosa is one of those fighters where you anticipate something crazy, whether grappling or striking, using unorthodox chokes and throwing spinning backfists and flying knees. Erosa does have the cardio to go three rounds and is dangerous at any point in the fight, having multiple first and third round finishes on his record. Steven Peterson has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins being over Chase Hooper (10-2-1), and Martin Bravo (12-3-0), with the latter victory being via one of the best finishes I’ve ever seen live, where he countered a spinning backfist with a spinning backfist and put his opponent out cold. While Peterson’s base is grappling, holding a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but also has some solid Muay Thai when on the feet. When striking, Peterson mixes it up well, throwing kicks to the legs and body and powerful combinations with his hands. Peterson is more than willing to get into dog fights, and will stand in the middle and exchange strikes as well as get into grueling grappling exchanges on the fence and on the ground. Training at Fortis MMA, “Ocho” doesn’t really seem to prefer grappling or striking over the other, willing to go wherever the fight ends up and seems comfortable in practically any position, most likely due to the wealth of experience he has in his 28 fight career. Erosa is one of the biggest favorites on the card at -310, with Peterson a +250 underdog. While I think these odds are a bit inflated, Erosa is a favorite for a reason. I think he’s just a little bit better at everything than Peterson, but I think this fight will be closer than many think, as Peterson is a very experienced and pretty tough too. Still, I’m going to take under 2.5 rounds, and Erosa by finish.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Erosa by KO/TKO or Sub.

Sam Alvey vs. Brendan Allen

Middleweight Bout

Sam Alvey: 33-16-1, 19 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Brendan Allen: 17-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

An interesting matchup of a longtime veteran and a prospect on the rise, I expect a very entertaining bout. Sam Alvey has not found a victory since 2018, but lost 2 of his last five by split decision and fought to a draw. His best victories are over former UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans (20-8-1), Nate Marquardt (35-19-2), and Cezar Ferreira (14-10-0). Alvey is a classic brawler, always willing to stand and bang and leave everything he has in the cage. Alvey kind of reminds me of Forrest Griffin; he might not be the best athlete or the most technical, but he’s got more heart than just about anybody. Training at Team Quest Portland, he has a great chin, and with so many fights on his record there’s very few situations he’s uncomfortable in. He very rarely will initiate grappling exchanges but does have solid defensive wrestling, with an outstanding takedown defense percentage of 81% in the UFC. He’s gone three rounds countless times in his career, and keeps his speed and power throughout a fight, often moving forward to throw wild combinations. With 19 career knockouts, Alvey is fully capable of putting an opponent away, even if he hasn’t done it recently. He does a great job of finding openings to land damaging strikes, doing nearly all of his work with his hands. Allen has won 3 of his last five bouts, with wins over Punahele Soriano (8-1-0), Karl Roberson (9-4-0), and Kyle Daukaus (10-2-0). Allen is primarily a grappler, and is extremely dangerous when he does get the fight to the mat, with quite a few rear naked choke wins on his record and even an ankle lock. He won’t strictly pursue the submission though, using quality top control to land ground and pound and advance to better positions. Training at Sanford MMA, Allen is dangerous whether he’s on top or on his back, and is always searching for submissions regardless of what position he’s in. Allen does have good striking to back up his grappling, and has both good hands and kicks, using more of a boxing style when he is on the feet. “All In” doesn’t see the judges too often, but can go three rounds, and like his opponent is willing to leave everything he has inside of the octagon every time he fights. Allen is tied for the biggest favorite on this card at -420, with Alvey a huge +330 underdog. I absolutely love Sam Alvey, but it’s tough to pick him to win this one. I certainly think it’ll be more competitive than people think it will be, but if Allen can take it to the mat he should be able to find a submission. I’m going to take under 2.5 rounds as well as Allen by submission.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Allen by Sub.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlton Harris

Welterweight Bout

Shavkat Rakhmonov: 14-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Carlston Harris: 17-4-0, 5 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Yet another matchup of up-and-coming fighters in the UFC, both of these men have been finishers in their UFC tenure and I don’t expect to see the judges in this bout. Rakhmonov is currently undefeated, with two UFC wins, both by submission over Alex Oliveira (22-11-1) and Michel Prazeres (26-4-0) in Prazeres’ first loss via finish in his career. Rakhmonov on the feet is an efficient, technical striker using a boxing style, often mixing in body kicks and the occasional spinning kick. He does have knockout power, but Rakhmonov seems to be at his best on the ground, using quality wrestling and clinchwork to bring his opponents to the mat. Training at Kazakhstan Top Team, Rakhmonov has excellent top control, staying patient and active on top until he can work to a submission position. “Nomad” does a good job of setting up his grappling with his striking, often dropping his opponent then finding a submission. He’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes, but is at his best when he can clinch his opponent against the cage, find the takedown and work his grappling game from there. Harris has won all of his last 5 fights, all by finish, with his most notable wins coming over Michel Pereira (27-11-0), Wellington Turman (17-5-0), and Christian Aguilera (14-8-0). Harris has some serious power in his hands, utilizing an efficient kickboxing style, with devastating kicks to match his hands. To go along with his power, he’s got some excellent speed, both in his movement and punches, and is always looking for the finish. He has one shot knockout power on the feet, but also has some slick grappling, with some nasty chokes on his record and great takedown defense. Training at Renovocao Fight Team, Harris seems to really love the anaconda and d’arce chokes, often sprawling on a takedown and then wrapping one of these up. Like his opponent, he seems comfortable just about wherever the fight goes, but seems to get a lot of his submissions via defensive grappling, not often shooting for takedowns. Rakhmonov is the favorite at -230, with Harris the underdog at +130. I think it might just be my riskiest pick, but I like Harris by finish in this one. I think he’s better on the feet, and his tendency to find chokes from defensive positions could really be difference maker. Rakhmonov is absolutely nasty, but I really think Harris could steal this one. The rounds are a bit tougher to call, but considering neither man has seen a third round in their last 5 fights, I’ll take under 1.5 rounds.

Picks: Harris by KO/TKO or Sub., Under 1.5 rounds

Punahele Soriano vs. Nick Maximov

Middleweight Bout

Punahele Soriano: 8-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Nick Maximov: 7-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

A matchup of two well rounded up-and-comers, this is bound to be a great fight. Soriano has won 4 of his last 5 fights, scoring victories over Dusko Todorovic (11-2-0), Oskar Piechota (11-3-1), and Jamie Pickett (13-6-0). Soriano has absolutely devastating power in his hands, which he’s proven with two 1st round knockouts in his 3 UFC bouts. On the feet, Soriano is at his most dangerous in the pocket, throwing massive hooks and really letting his hands go. He will occasionally mix in kicks when he does leave the pocket, mostly going to the head or body. Soriano is constantly moving forward and pressuring his opponent, keeping them moving backwards while he throws bombs. Training at the excellent Xtreme Couture, Soriano loves to headhunt on the feet, but has also shown some solid wrestling to complement his striking. In his Contender Series fight with Jamie Pickett he landed three takedowns, and did show an ability to grapple, but didn’t land much offense when on top. Maximov is currently undefeated, winning a unanimous decision in his UFC debut against Cody Brundage (6-2-0). Training at the Nick Diaz Academy, he fights exactly like how you would expect someone trained by Nick Diaz would; good boxing, great BJJ. On the feet he has solid, technical boxing, and has decent power in his hands. Maximov is certainly willing to engage on the feet, but seems most comfortable on the ground, landing 4 takedowns and holding nearly 10 minutes of control time in his fight with Cody Brundage. He’ll pursue submissions as well as land ground and pound, and does a great job of controlling his opponent and really sticking to them. He has good wrestling to complement his jiu-jitsu, able to land takedowns in the open and the clinch, as well of doing a good job defending takedowns. Maximov will regularly pursue the finish on the ground whether it’s via strikes or submissions, often setting up one with the other. He also exhibited quality cardio in his one UFC fight, being able to control his opponent and stay active for the majority of it. Soriano is a decent favorite at -190, with Maximov the underdog at +160. I’m honestly a little surprised Soriano is such a big favorite, he does have serious power but could find himself in some serious trouble if taken down. At the same time, we haven’t seen Maximov get taken into deep waters, having dominated and controlled both of his opponents in his Contender Series fight and UFC debut. This is a super tough fight to pick a winner in, but I do think this fight goes over 1.5 rounds. This is a classic dilemma of one guy being the better grappler but the other the better striker. I don’t feel super confident picking either guy, but if I had to pick a winner, I’ll cautiously take Soriano.

Picks: Over 1.5 rounds, Soriano -190

#6 Jack Hermansson vs. #7 Sean Strickland

Middleweight Bout

Jack Hermansson: 22-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Sean Strickland: 24-3-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

This is an excellent matchup in terms of styles, and a very important fight for two guys who have seemingly been on the cusp of the top 5 for a lot of their UFC tenure. Jack Hermansson has won 3 of his last 5, those being victories over Edmen Shahbazyan (11-3-0), #10 ranked middleweight Kelvin Gastellum (17-8-0), and Jacare Souza (26-10-0). Training at Frontline Academy, Hermansson is a well rounded fighter, willing to engage exchanges both on the feet and on the ground. While he does have solid striking, it seems Hermansson prefers to take the fight to the mat, averaging about two takedowns a fight. When on the ground, he’s a bit more likely to pursue ground and pound as opposed to the submission, but will grab a choke when given the chance. When striking, Hermansson uses a boxing style, often throwing a lot of leg and body kicks before letting his hands go. Hermansson is at his most dangerous early in a fight, having 5 first round finishes in the UFC, 2 being knockouts with 3 submissions. “The Joker” has shown some decent power in his hands and can certainly put someone away, but really seems his most comfortable in grappling situations, landing at least one takedown in all but one of his last 8 fights. Sean Strickland has won all of his last 5 fights, with impressive wins over #9 ranked middleweight Uriah Hall (18-10-0), Krzysztof Jotko (23-5-0), and Brendan Allen (17-5-0). Strickland has become well known for his striking, as well for his tendency to talk trash throughout fights. Being on a 5 fight win streak, his trash talk usually serves to frustrate his opponents while they’re losing to Strickland. While “Tarzan” definitely prefers to keep the fight standing, he will often mix some grappling in with his striking, averaging just over 1 takedown per fight. He also has shown pretty solid takedown defense in his career, defending 82% of takedowns attempted on him, and is something that could play a big role in this fight. Strickland rarely pursues the submission, much preferring to get the work done with his powerful hands. On the feet, Strickland uses a very upright boxing style, constantly moving forward and throwing combinations. While he certainly pursues the knockout, he doesn’t overextend himself in doing this, usually remaining technical and composed even in fire fights. Training at Millenia MMA, Strickland seems almost Terminator-like with his constant forward movement, trying to keep his opponent on the backfoot as much as possible to open up opportunities to land combinations, especially his one-two. Strickland is the favorite in this one at -220, making Hermansson the +180 underdog. I think what decides this fight is Strickland’s defensive wrestling as he hasn’t been taken down since 2017, with the last person to take him down being UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. If Strickland can keep it on the feet, I think he has better striking than Hermansson and should be able to get the job done. I’m taking Strickland by knockout, and under 4.5 rounds, with the rounds definitely being the safer pick.

Picks: Under 4.5 rounds, Strickland by KO/TKO