UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green

We continue to roll on with this long stretch of cards, with another solid Fight Night. This week we see a very late replacement in the unranked Bobby Green stepping into face #4 ranked lightweight Islam Makhachev. Makhachev has been on an absolute tear, riding a 9 fight win streak where he’s never seen as much as a split decision. Bobby Green has finally been receiving the respect he deserves, winning his last two bouts decisively and got a lot of love from the Houston crowd after his 1st round KO of Al Iaquinta. This card has a ton of fantastic matchups, with both veterans and up-and-comers seeing action this Saturday. I cannot wait for this one, and it should be a fun card from start to finish.

Prelims

Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam

Lightweight Bout

Terrance McKinney: 11-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Fares Ziam: 12-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Ziam comes into this bout with 4 wins in his last 5, with his UFC victories coming over Luigi Vendramini (9-3-0) and Jamie Mullarkey (14-4-0). While Ziam has gone to decisions in all of his UFC fights, he rarely saw decisions for the majority of his career, only seeing a second round twice from 2014 to 2018. Ziam is a calm, patient kickboxer, constantly feinting and looking for openings to land powerful straight shots. Ziam is at his best when he takes the center of the octagon and fights at range, picking his opponent apart with a mix of kicks and punches. While kickboxing is certainly his best skill, he is capable on the ground with multiple submission wins in his career, all by choke. Training at Bulgarian Top Team, Ziam is a great defensive fighter as well, as in his UFC career he has defended 68% of takedowns and 65% of significant strikes attempted on him. Ziam is in no rush in the octagon, gladly fighting a slow fight from range and winning by any means necessary. McKinney has won 4 of his last 5 fights, tying the third fastest finish in UFC history in his promotional debut with a 7 second KO of Matt Frevola (9-3-1). Although the majority of his finishes are submissions, McKinney has won his last 4 fights via knockout all in the first round, with a combined fight time of a 1 minute and 52 seconds. He is obviously extremely dangerous early, loving to get into wild brawls throwing voluminous combos and plenty of head kicks. Training at Warrior Camp MMA, he has excellent top control and ground and pound as well, and has 4 wins by rear naked choke, so he’s seemingly comfortable whereever the fight ends up. The biggest challenge when it comes to analyzing McKinney is the shockingly low amount of time he’s spent in the cage in his recent fights, and doesn’t have a single decision win or loss on his record. That does make one thing outstandingly clear though; if McKinney is fighting, someone is probably going to sleep one way or another. Ziam is a slight favorite at -130, making McKinney the underdog at +110. With the hype behind McKinney following his debut, I’m surprised he didn’t get the edge here. These are two practically opposite fighters, one being a very composed, traditional kickboxer and one a very wild, well rounded fighter. I think if McKinney can come out and blitz Ziam he should win this fight, but Ziam does a great job of making it challenging to get into the pocket. I’ll definitely take the under 2.5 rounds, regardless of who wins McKinney is too wild for there not to be a finish, but I’m also going to take McKinney by finish as well. If he can disrupt the flow of Ziam and make it into a brawl, he should definitely take this fight.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, McKinney by KO/TKO or Sub.

Rong Zhu vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

Lightweight Bout

Rong Zhu: 18-4-0, 12 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Ignacio Bahamondes: 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A bout between two young and dangerous strikers, this fight should be fireworks. Zhu has found victory in 4 of his last 5 bouts, with one UFC win over Brandon Jenkins (15-8-0). Zhu has some very snappy strikes, with quick and powerful hands, often headhunting and blasting his opponent with straight punches. He seems to be more comfortable counter striking, allowing his opponents to get aggressive while slipping back and landing damaging shots. Training with both Enbo Fight Club and American Top Team, Zhu has excellent experience for a 21 year old fighter, and is visibly comfortable in the cage. He rarely appears uncomfortable and has never been knocked out, although 3 of his 4 losses have come by submission. He’s willing to grapple but won’t often initiate the exchanges, but does have a couple choke wins on his record and is certainly capable on the ground. Zhu has excellent cardio and is able to push a quick pace on the feet, but would much rather be in a technical striking match than a brawl in the pocket. Zhu definitely prefers to keep the fight on the feet, as he does have a decent top game as well as a good ability to get up, but does seem to accept position on the bottom sometimes. Bahamondes has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with wins over Roosevelt Roberts (10-3-0) and Edson Gomez (5-2-0), both via spectacular knockout. In his Contender Series bout with Edson Gomez, he found victory with a front kick to the chin, and in his fight with Roberts he had one of the best knockouts of the year with a beautiful spinning back kick KO in the closing seconds of the fight. Bahamondes has excellent kickboxing, constantly switching stances and throwing quick combinations with his hands, often followed up by devastating kicks. While he has some flashy knockouts, Bahamondes does a great job of remaining composed whether he’s at range or in the pocket, willing to exchange strikes anywhere. In his fight with Roberts he showed solid takedown defense and was mostly able to keep the fight where he wants it, managing range well and landing shots in the clinch when taken to the cage. Training at Valle Flow Striking, he has shown he has both the cardio and the chin to back up his striking tendencies, allowing him to get into wars and throw with volume. Bahamondes is a decent favorite in this fight at -230, making Zhu the +190 underdog. While I do think these odds are a bit too wide, I think Zhu’s willingness to engage in a technical fight will be his downfall. Bahamondes is capable of fighting at range at a slow pace, but will often turn up the heat and throw out some wild attacks, and especially with Zhu’s tendency to counterstrike, I think Bahamondes will catch him and put him away. I’m going to take Bahamondes by KO/TKO, as well as under 2.5 rounds, but Bahamondes is the safer pick.

Picks: Bahamondes by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

Armen Petrosyan vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Middleweight Bout

Armen Petrosyan: 6-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Gregory Rodrigues: 11-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

A fight between two excellent strikers, I’d be shocked if the judges get involved with this one. Petrosyan has wins in 4 of his last 5 bouts, with a win on Dana White’s Contender Series over Kaloyan Kolev (10-1-0). Petrosyan has great hands, able to throw with both speed and power as well as mix in kicks. If he’s able to find space, he’s extremely dangerous, shown in his Contender Series bout where after being clinched for a few minutes, he exploded off the fence and landed a huge combo to put his opponent away in the first round. He also demonstrated solid takedown defense in that fight, able to land some decent offense in the clinch even when his back was against the fence and got up quickly when taken down. Training at Academy MMA, Petrosyan does seem to often be defending grappling, biding his time in the clinch until he can get into space to work his combinations. “Superman” does have some powerful kicks as well, even winning a fight via body kick just a year ago. Considering Petrosyan went pro in 2018, his 7 fights is impressive, fighting 4 times in 2021 alone. Having spent most of his career on the Russian regional scene, Petrosyan is not new when it comes to facing high level opponents, despite this being his UFC debut. Rodrigues has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with his two UFC wins coming over Junyong Park (13-5-0) and Dusko Todorovic (11-2-0). “Robocop” not only has one of the best nicknames in MMA but also some absolutely devastating power in his hands, only seeing a single decision in his last 6 fights. Rodrigues fights with a very heavy handed kickboxing style, willing to engage both in the pocket and at range, as well as having some quick kicks for someone his size. Training at a great camp in Sanford MMA, Rodrigues has the power to put someone away even when gassed, shown in the absolute brawl he got into against Junyong Park. Rodrigues has great range management and movement, able to land and get back out to range unscathed. He has solid accuracy and volume to match his power, landing with 57% accuracy in UFC career. He can eat a punch as well, something he almost necessitates with his wild striking style, but 2 of his career losses have come by knockout, with the most recent coming in his Contender Series bout against Jordan Williams (9-6-0). Rodrigues is the favorite in this one at -160, with Petrosyan the underdog at +135. Although I don’t love taking under 1.5 rounds often, I certainly do in this fight, as unless Rodrigues wants to grapple I’d be shocked if this fight didn’t see a finish. It seems we’re yet to fully see the potential of Petrosyan, so it makes sense why Rodrigues is the favorite in this one. Petrosyan certainly could find the upset, but I think Rodrigues’ experience, accuracy as well as his grappling pedigree give him an edge in this one. I’ll take Rodrigues moneyline.

Picks: Under 1.5 rounds, Rodrigues -160

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez

Lightweight Bout

Arman Tsarukyan: 17-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Joel Alvarez: 19-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 16 Sub.

Yet another prospect fight, this is one I’d be shocked to see go to the judges. Tsarukyan comes into this fight with wins in 4 of his last 5 outings, with the best of those wins being two unanimous decision victories over Olivier Aubin-Mercier (13-5-0) and Davi Ramos (10-4-0), as well as a first round knockout of Christos Giagos (19-9-0). His only UFC loss is to a fighter in the main event this Saturday, Islam Makhachev, and based on the high level competition he’s been given, the UFC is clearly very high on this young fighter. He has crisp kickboxing on the feet, throwing plenty of combos ending with head kicks, doing a great job of moving in to land shots and back out to range. He will mix in some flashy spinning kicks and spinning backfists, staying calm and picking his opponent apart with quick shots and plenty of leg kicks. Training at Khabarovsk MMA as well as American Top Team, Tsarukyan has a solid wrestling background, willing to initiate grappling exchanges to land ground and pound as well as pursue submissions. All 5 of the submissions on his record were via choke, so he is certainly dangerous if he can get a hold of someone;s neck. Alvarez has also won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his last three wins all coming in the first round over Joe Duffy (16-5-0), Alexander Yakovlev (24-10-0), and Thiago Moises (15-6-0). With 16 wins by submission, it’s clear Alvarez is an excellent grappler, but at 6’3 he’s a decently tall lightweight, often giving him a length advantage on the feet allowing him to work his kickboxing. Alvarez really showed off his power against Thiago Moises, landing some brutal elbows and kicks to put him away in the first round. If the fight does hit the mat, Alvarez is even more dangerous, particularly on his back. Despite having two submission victories in the UFC, “El Fenomeno” hasn’t even attempted a takedown in a UFC fight. Outside of a single armbar, all of his submission wins have been via choke of some variation, so the fight very well could be over if he gets hold of his opponent’s neck. While Alvarez’ record may not represent it, he’s a well rounded fighter who seems comfortable in just about any position. Tsarukyan is a surprisingly big favorite here at -220, making Alvarez a +180 underdog. Considering the 8 inch height advantage Alvarez holds, it will definitely test Tsarukyan’s kickboxing. While Tsarukyan certainly has the advantage in wrestling, Alvarez can wrap up chokes so fast I don’t think that’s safe for Tsarukyan either. This is a super tough fight to call, but I will take under 2.5 rounds as I certainly expect a finish. I’ll make the risky call and take Alvarez by submission, if he can make Tsaruykan uncomfortable on the feet and attempt a takedown I wouldn’t be surprised if Alvarez could snatch his neck.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Alvarez by Sub.

Ji Yeon Kim vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Ji Yeon Kim: 9-4-2, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Priscila Cachoeira: 10-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A fight between two solid strikers, this should play out on the feet. Kim has won 2 of her last 5 bouts, with her best wins coming over Nadia Kassem (5-2-0) and Justine Kish (7-5-0). Kim certainly proved her ability to get into firefights in her last bout with Molly McCann where she absorbed 130 strikes while landing 134. Training at Syndicate MMA, “Firefist” is yet to be knocked down in her UFC career despite constantly engaging in brawls. Kim tends to stay in the pocket, willing to eat shots in order to land her combinations, but has shown an excellent chin so far in her career. Kim tends to headhunt on the feet, rarely going to the body but throwing plenty of shots to the head, staying technical but not always accurate. Kim has never attempted a takedown in her UFC career, but does have decent clinch work and top control. Kim keeps a very high pace when striking, regularly throwing more than 200 strikes a fight. Cachoeira has also won 2 of her last five outings, with knockout wins over Shana Dobson (4-5-0) and Gina Mazany (7-5-0). Like her opponent, she has proven her chin multiple times, always moving forward and trying to land the knockout blow. Cachoeira is at her best when she’s moving forward, throwing power shots and combinations and fighting in the pocket. She has proven to be dangerous early, knocking out Shana Dobson in just 40 seconds in 2020. Cachoeira has shown decent takedown defense in her career defending 65% of those attempted on her, but has never attempted a takedown in her UFC tenure. She may have been sent to the top too early, coming into the UFC undefeated and was given the current women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0) in her debut, which is reflected in her UFC record. Cachoeira has very solid power for the 125 pound division, and is dangerous if she can let her hands go. Kim is the favorite in this one at -165, with Cachoeira the underdog at +140. I’ll definitely side with the oddsmakers here, I think Kim’s chin makes a huge difference in this fight and is a great matchup for Cachoeira considering her brawling tendencies, but I expect her to pick up the win here. I’ll also take over 2.5 rounds, I don’t anticipate a finish in this fight.

Picks: Kim -165, Over 2.5 rounds. 

Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman

Middleweight Bout

Misha Cirkunov: 15-7-0, 4 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Wellington Turman: 17-5-0, 4 KO/TKO. 7 Sub.

A matchup of two excellent grapplers, I expect a finish in this one. Cirkunov has won 2 out of his last 5 fights, with first round submissions over Jimmy Crute (12-3-0) and Pat Cummins (10-7-0). Training at Xtreme Couture, Cirkunov has a very odd record, with 5 of his 7 career losses coming in the first round, with only a single loss by decision in his last bout against Krzysztof Jotko (23-5-0). In fact, 16 of his 22 career fights have ended in the first round, proving he’s by far at his most dangerous early on in the fight. Cirkunov does have decent striking, certainly possessing enough power to put an opponent away, but has been KO’d 4 times in his career, all of them coming in the last 4 years, so he definitely prefers grappling. Cirkunov is very dangerous on the ground, able to wrap up submissions very quickly, seemingly before his opponent even realizes what’s taking place. Cirkunov will typically pursue some kind of choke, with 5 of his 9 submission wins coming via choke. Cirkunov very rarely sees a decision, with 13 finishes in 15 fights, and is constantly pursuing the finish whether he’s on the feet or on the ground. Turman has similarly won 2 of his last 5, with decision victories over Sam Alvey (33-17-1) and Markus Perez (12-6-0). Turman is definitely at his best when he can gain top control and work both his ground and pound and submission game, with all of his submission victories coming via choke. Turman is a great wrestler, averaging just over 2 takedowns a fight and has never been taken down in his UFC career. In both of his UFC victories he landed takedowns, so it’s seemingly essential that he can take the fight to the mat. Often times he’ll use his clinch work to get the fight to the floor, not typically shooting for takedowns out in the open. He is willing to strike though, using technical boxing and the occasional headkick. Training at Teixeira MMA & Fitness, Turman does have decent power in his hands, although is yet to finish an opponent in the UFC. He will mix in a few wild strikes like flying knees and spinning backfists, but for the most part sticks to stiff hooks and uppercuts. Cirkunov is a slight favorite at -120, with Turman the underdog at +100. I like Cirkunov in this one, I think he’s faced much higher level opponents in his career than Turman, and has higher level grappling which seems to be Turman’s preference. I’ll take Cirkunov moneyline and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Cirkunov -120, Under 2.5 rounds

#4 Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green

Lightweight Bout

Islam Makhachev: 21-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.

Bobby Green: 29-12-1, 9 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

One of the wildest main events I’ve ever seen in terms of ranking, this should be an entertaining fight no matter what. Islam Makhachev has won all 5 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins coming over #8 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker (21-11-0), Thiago Moises (15-6-0), and Drew Dober (23-11-0). Makhachev, like his coach and training partner Khabib Nurmagomedov, is a dominant wrestler than could submit you or ground and pound you to find a finish. Makhachev has won all of his last 3 fights by submission though, with the most recent coming in the first round, showing a great improvement in urgency. Training at AKA, Makhachev definitely prefers grappling but is capable of striking as well, throwing with 58% accuracy on the feet as well as defending 70% of shots thrown at him. Makhachev averages over 3 takedowns a fight, and makes his wrestling background very apparent, using the now-famous Dagestani style of controlling and dominating his opponent against the cage. The absolute last place you want to be against Makhachev is on the bottom, as he will relentlessly pursue the finish from the top, and can easily control an opponent for five rounds if he can’t get them out of there. Green has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, and has wins over Al Iaquinta (14-7-1), Clay Guida (37-18-0) and Josh Thomson (22-9-0). Training at Pinnacle MMA, Green is an excellent boxer, picking his opponents apart with quick combinations and damaging straights. Green is a tested veteran, going pro in 2008 and has been in the UFC since 2013, amassing 18 fights in the promotion in that 9 year span. Green is very rarely in a boring fight, always willing to go to the center of the octagon and exchange blows. He has won Performance of the Night once and Fight of the Night 3 times in his career, backing up his scrappy tendencies. Green also has solid wrestling to supplement his striking, having defended 72% of takedowns attempted on him, and possesses good top control and a decent submission game. Green lands strikes at a 51% clip and has defended 62% of strikes thrown at him, making him a rather efficient striker, able to engage in the pocket and land big shots without taking damage in return. Green does a great job of mixing up his strikes, attacking to both the head and the body and throwing the occassional kick to finish a combination. Makhachev is by far the biggest favorite on the card at -900, with Green the underdog at +600. It’s pretty tough to pick against Makhachev here, but I don’t think this fight will be a total blowout. I will take under 2.5 rounds as well, Makhachev seems to be getting quicker and quicker with his finishes so if he’s going to win I’d expect it early. I think I along with the entire MMA community is pulling for Bobby Green here, and regardless of what happens he deserves tremendous respect for taking this fight on such short notice.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Makhachev by Submission