UFC 274 Preview

Prelims

#6 Brandon Royval vs. #9 Matt Schnell

Flyweight Bout

Brandon Royval: 13-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Matt Schnell: 15-5-0, 2 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

An exciting matchup of flyweight grapplers, this is a great fight to kick off the prelims. Royval comes into this fight having won 3 of his last 5, with wins over #11 ranked Tim Elliott (19-12-1), #8 ranked Rogerio Bontorin (16-4-0), and #2 ranked Kai Kara-France (24-9-0). In just 5 fights in the UFC, Royval has already faced a who’s who of the flyweight division and came into the UFC as the LFA flyweight champion. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, “Raw Dawg” (top tier nickname) has consistently been in exciting fights, having one of the wildest striking exchanges I’ve ever seen with Kara-France. I covered Royval’s last bout against Bontorin (find the article here), where he showcased a definite willingness to strike, kickboxing at range and quickly darting in and out to land shots. He’s shown he’s comfortable just about anywhere, with an excellent submission game from his back as well as on top, as well as a solid enough chin to get into brawls. Royval is definitely more likely to pursue a submission as opposed to ground and pound, being particularly adept at chokes and joint locks. With a black belt in BJJ, he’s more than proficient in grappling, and his striking seems to improve with every fight. Royval does a great job of pushing the pace over all three rounds, never seeming too desperate to find a better position or land strikes. While his wrestling is a bit lackluster, he more than makes up for that with his skill from his back, making his opponents a bit more wary of taking him down. Schnell has won 3 of his last 5, with a loss that was overturned to a no contest. Schnell’s best wins came over Louis Smolka (17-8-0), Naoki Inue (16-3-0), and Tyson Nam (20-12-1). Like his opponent, Schnell is willing to engage the fight just about anywhere, using a technical boxing style on the feet and favoring wrestling in grappling exchanges. Like most flyweights, Schnell has fast hands but has decent power for the weight class as well, often setting up his grappling with his striking and vice versa. Schnell is excellent at capitalizing on his opponents' mistakes, and will regularly grab chokes when defending takedowns. Of his 8 career submission wins, 6 of them are chokes, all of which being either a guillotine or triangle. Training at Fortis MMA, Schnell has a black belt in karate, so despite largely boxing when on the feet, he definitely has a kicking game to back up his hands. Schnell seems to be at his most vulnerable in the first round, with 3 first-round KO losses in his UFC career, but also has a handful of first-round wins on his record, so he’s pretty unpredictable in the opening round. Royval is a decent favorite in this one at -260, with Schnell the underdog at +210. I’m not surprised by these odds; despite having a shorter tenure in the UFC, Royval has faced much tougher competition, as well as having better wins on his record. I think Royval has a slight edge in the grappling, but considering they both have dangerous submission games, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one play out on the feet. I’ll take Royval by finish and cautiously pick up under 2.5 rounds. Both men tend to push the pace, so I anticipate a finish, but both are pretty tough, so it’s a bit riskier than the Royval pick.

Picks: Royval by KO/TKO or Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

#11 (BW) Macy Chiasson vs. #15 (BW) Norma Dumont

Women’s Featherweight Bout

Macy Chiasson: 8-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Norma Dumont: 7-1-0, 0 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

A rare women’s featherweight fight, this is an exciting matchup of well-rounded fighters. Chiasson has won 3 of her last 5 bouts, with her best wins coming over Gina Mazany (7-6-0), Shanna Young (9-5-0), and Pannie Kianzad (17-6-0). Chiasson doesn’t have the fastest hands but more than makes up for that with volume, often blitzing forward throwing big combinations. Chiasson utilizes her length well, mixing in a good amount of body kicks with her punches, particularly front kicks. She also possesses solid clinch striking, landing elbows and knees to the body, as well as a decent ability to control her opponent in the clinch. Training at Fortis MMA, Chiasson was the winner of the 28th season of the Ultimate Fighter, winning via finish in both the semifinal and final rounds of the tournament. Chiasson favors the striking but has decent wrestling to back up her hands and can land considerable damage when on top. She’s landed at least one takedown in her last 3 fights, so she is willing to take the fight to the ground if she’s not winning the striking battle. Dumont comes into this with wins in 4 of her last 5 fights, with her 3 UFC victories coming over Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-5-0), Felicia Spencer (9-3-0), and Aspen Ladd (9-3-0). Dumont has had a solid output in her UFC career, averaging 75 significant strikes in her last 3 fights, and proved her cardio in a 5 round unanimous decision win over Aspen Ladd. Despite having no knockouts on her record, Dumont has sound, technical boxing as well as good power and speed in both her hands and kicks. Dumont seems to want to counterstrike a lot, often waiting for her opponent to put something out there before letting her hands go. Dumont averages just above 1 takedown a fight and has a brown belt in BJJ, so she’s capable of landing good ground and pound as well as grab submissions. Training at Syndicate MMA, Dumont has a slightly unusual background, with a black belt in Sanda, also known as Chinese kickboxing, with the word Sanda directly translating to “free fighting.” “The Immortal” (no, not Matt Brown) is very well-rounded, seemingly comfortable wherever the fight goes, and will usually mix it up pretty well between striking and grappling. Dumont is the favorite at -220, making Chiasson the underdog at +180. Dumont should definitely win this fight, as not only does she have better quality wins on her record, but she seems to be much faster and more technical on the feet and the ground. -220 is a bit high, but as much as I don’t like it I feel very risky expecting a finish as she hasn’t had a finish since 2017. I’ll take Dumont moneyline as well as over 2.5 rounds, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Dumont puts Chiasson away.

Picks: Dumont -220, Over 2.5 rounds

Francisco Trinaldo vs. Danny Roberts

Welterweight Bout

Francisco Trinaldo: 27-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Danny Roberts: 18-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

An excellent matchup of two tenured UFC fighters, this fight should be fireworks. Trinaldo has found victory in 4 of his last 5 outings and has spent a decade in the UFC, with his best wins being over John Makdessi (18-7-0), Bobby Green (29-13-1), and Paul Felder (17-6-0). Trinaldo has never lost consecutive fights in his entire UFC career and is still winning fights at the ripe age of 43. Trinaldo is obviously very experienced, so there are not a whole lot of situations you can put him in he hasn’t been in before, and he’s never been knocked out in his entire career. With a kickboxing record of 12-1, Trinaldo is a great striker with solid power in his hands and kicks, as well as a well-tested chin and great fight IQ, always knowing when to level change or clinch. I think one of Trinaldo’s best qualities is the ability to survive in deep waters, doing a great job to work out of bad spots, often surviving submission attempts or getting knocked down. Training with Constrictor Team, Trinaldo has gone 3 rounds plenty of times and still has good cardio in the 16th year of his extensive career. “Massaranduba” averages almost exactly 1 takedown per fight and has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as smothering top control and devastating ground and pound. Roberts has won 3 out of his last 5 fights, with his most impressive wins being over Ramazan Emeev (20-5-0), Zelim Imadaev (8-3-0), and Nathan Coy (15-7-0). While not quite as experienced as his opponent, Roberts has been in the UFC since 2015, so he’s by no means a newcomer. With a background in boxing, Roberts has an aggressive, technical style on the feet, with definite knockout power in his hands and a decent arsenal of kicks. One of his best qualities is his movement, Roberts has good footwork and does an excellent job of circling and moving to stay out of the clinch and in the middle of the cage. Roberts does have some decent wrestling, landing a takedown in both of his last two wins, but seems to only pursue grappling when he’s struggling on the feet. With a takedown defense percentage of 56%, “Hot Chocolate” does a good job of keeping the fight where he’s most comfortable. Training at Sanford MMA, he has paid for his aggressive style in the past, with 3 KO losses in the UFC, often getting wild and finding himself in brawls. This fight is currently a pick em’, with both fighters sitting at -110. I think Trinaldo’s experience, as well as his grappling advantage, will make all the difference in this fight. Trinaldo faced a similar opponent in Jai Herbert (11-4-0), and despite struggling a bit early and suffering a knockdown, Trinaldo managed to secure a third-round TKO. I'm going to take Trinaldo moneyline here and under 2.5 rounds, I think Robert’s wildness will be his downfall and could lead to a finish for Trinaldo.

Picks: Trinaldo -110, Under 2.5 rounds

Randy Brown vs. Khaos Williams

Welterweight Bout

Randy Brown: 14-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Khaos Williams: 13-2-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

An excellent bout between two powerful strikers, the judges shouldn’t be involved in this one. Brown has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with wins over Jared Gooden (20-7-0), Alex Oliveira (22-12-1), and Bryan Barberena (17-8-0). Brown is a tall welterweight at 6’3 and makes great use of it, throwing combinations at range, often putting body kicks at the end of his punches. Brown has a boxing background and it shows, he can throw 4 or 5 punch combinations without getting wild and with solid accuracy, but also has dangerous kicks. Despite only having two KO’s in his 6 year UFC tenure, Brown has proven he has knockout power on multiple occasions, and can also land serious damage in the clinch. Averaging just below a takedown a fight, Brown will mix in grappling with his slick striking, and does a great job of using his length in the clinch to control his opponent and take them to the mat. If the fight does go to the ground, Brown has a good submission game and some great chokes, with 4 of his 5 career submissions coming via some kind of choke. Training at Kings MMA, Brown’s willingness to exchange on the feet has hurt him before, having been knocked out twice in the UFC, and has also struggled defending leg kicks, and is at his best when he can use his length at range. Williams has similarly won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with wins over Miguel Baeza (10-3-0), Matthew Semelsberger (10-3-0), and Abdul Razak Alhassan (11-5-0). Williams, like his opponent, is a lengthy striker, but is much more boxing based, using the devastating power in his hands to get the job done. His first two UFC fights combined lasted less than a minute, so it’s safe to say he’s at his most dangerous in the first round. Williams loves to blitz forward throwing wild hooks, trying to put his opponent away fast as possible, and averages 5 significant strikes landed per minute. Training at Murcielago MMA, Williams is yet to attempt a takedown in his UFC career, very obviously favoring stand up exchanges. “The Ox Fighter” throws everything with knockout intentions, rarely throwing singular shots and usually moving forward when punching. He doesn’t have the most extensive kicking game, but will mix in the occasional body or leg kick when in open space. This is yet another pick em’ fight, putting Brown at -105 and Williams at -115. Under 2.5 rounds is by far the safest pick here, both guys have big power and like to push the pace, but picking a winner is considerably harder. Williams certainly has the power to put Brown away, but Brown is a much more well rounded fighter. If Brown mixes in some grappling I really think he should win this fight, so I’m going to take Brown moneyline.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Brown -105

Main Card

Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon

Lightweight Bout

Donald Cerrone: 36-16-0, 10 KO/TKO, 17 Sub.

Joe Lauzon: 28-16-0, 9 KO/TKO, 17 Sub.

This fight sees a matchup of two extremely experienced and tenured UFC fighters, and could possibly be both of their last fights, so I expect plenty of action. Cerrone has lost 4 of his last 5 fights with one no contest, but has wins over former UFC lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez (30-8-0), another former UFC lightweight champion in Benson Henderson (29-11-0), and current #12 featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0). One of the most respected fighters in the entire sport, Cerrone has been in the UFC since 2011 and has been a fan favorite his entire career. Cerrone currently is tied for the most UFC wins (23), has the second most UFC finishes (16), and the third most bouts in UFC history (37). With a background in Muay Thai, Cerrone has fast hands and powerful kicks, and is excellent at mixing kicks into combinations. Training at the BMF Ranch, “Cowboy” has a black belt in BJJ and an excellent submission game, dangerous from on top as well as on his back. He’s willing to engage the fight just about anywhere, and regardless of his recent skid is always up for a good scrap. Experience alone makes Cerrone a very dangerous fighter, but his well-roundedness is definitely his biggest asset, as there’s practically no position you’ll find him uncomfortable in. Lauzon has won 2 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over former Pride FC lightweight champion Takanori Gomi (36-15-0), inaugural UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver (27-19-1), and current #11 welterweight Michael Chiesa (18-6-0). Lauzon has spent 15 years in the UFC, and like his opponent is one of the most well liked and respected fighters on the roster. Lauzon was a contestant on season 5 of the Ultimate Fighter, famously entering the season fresh off a KO win over one of that seasons coaches, Jens Pulver. Although he’s coming off a 3 year lay off, Lauzon showed in his last fight against Jonathan Pearce (12-4-0) that he hasn’t lost any of his power, battering his opponent in the first round to find a KO victory. Training at Lauzon MMA (who would’ve thought), he uses a technical boxing style on the feet, not moving around too much and mostly using his hands. Lauzon is an excellent grappler, with six submission of the night honors to his name (the most in UFC history), and is excellent with both joint locks and chokes. Like his opponent, Lauzon is comfortable wherever the fight goes, both from his skill and his wealth of experience. Cerrone is a decent favorite here at -180, with Lauzon the underdog at +155. Once again the under is the safest pick here at under 2.5 rounds, both men have something to prove in this fight and I imagine they’ll be pushing the pace. Cerrone is a bit steep at -180, although Lauzon hasn’t fought in 3 years Cerrone has really hit a rough patch in his late career, but I can’t pick against him. I’ll admit my bias here, but I have to take Cowboy by finish in this one.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Cerrone by KO/TKO or Sub.

Mauricio Hua vs. Ovince Saint Preux

Light Heavyweight Bout

Mauricio Hua: 27-12-1, 21 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Ovince Saint Preux: 25-16-0, 13 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Yet another matchup of two well respected and long tenured fighters, this is a rematch of a 2014 bout that Saint Preux won via first round KO. Hua comes into this bout with wins in 2 of his last 5 fights with one draw, and has wins over former UFC light heavyweight champions Chuck Liddell (21-9-0), Lyoto Machida (26-11-0) and Forrest Griffin (19-7-0). Hua himself is both a former UFC light heavyweight champion as well as the Pride middleweight Grand Prix in 2005. Better known as “Shogun,” Hua has long been one of the most respected strikers in the sport, with a plethora of knockouts on his record and very well rounded striking. The best way to describe Shogun’s striking is he’s patient until he’s not, he’ll often plod forward slowly before throwing powerful combinations or devastating kicks. While not quite as wild as he was earlier in his career, Shogun will occasionally let it fly and mix in some flashy kicks, and still has good power in his hands. Training at Kings MMA, Hua won’t often initiate grappling sequences, but does possess a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and is excellent in the clinch. As I’ve said with other veterans on this card, there’s very few positions you can put him in that he hasn’t been in before, so Shogun is comfortable wherever the fight ends up although he definitely prefers to keep it on the feet. Saint Preux has also won just 2 of his last 5 fights, and has wins over current #11 light heavyweight Nikita Krylov (27-9-0), Yushin Okami (36-14-0), and rightful Bellator light heavyweight champion Corey Anderson (17-5-0). On the feet, Saint Preux has a very upright, slow style, throwing a lot of shots one at a time but with plenty of power behind them. Saint Preux has become well known for his use of the Von Flue choke, using it to find victory 3 times in the UFC. Averaging just over a takedown per fight, “OSP” is seemingly at his most dangerous on top, landing damaging ground and pound and pursuing submissions. Saint Preux is very patient, always looking for openings to land a knockout blow or a takedown, very rarely rushing forward or acting desperately, averaging just 2.65 significant strikes landed per minute. Training at Knoxville MMA, “OSP” does his best work on the feet when he takes the middle of the cage, patiently counterstriking or looking for a chance to clinch up. Saint Preux is a surprisingly large favorite in this one at -240, with Hua at +200. I imagine Shogun announcing this will be his second to last fight has some bearing on these odds, as Saint Preux has not looked great in his recent bouts, losing his last two fights by second round KO. Even more surprising to me, the over/under is 1.5 rounds, and I think the over could be a pretty easy pickup. I’m going to cautiously pick Shogun here, he may not be the same figher he was was but neither is Saint Preux, and I think Hua’s aggressiveness on the feet as well as grappling experience will make a big difference in this fight.

Picks: Over 1.5 rounds, Hua +200

#5 Michael Chandler vs. #7 Tony Ferguson

Lightweight Bout

Michael Chandler: 22-7-0, 10 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Tony Ferguson: 26-6-0, 12 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

This matchup features two of the most exciting fighters in the sport, and has big implications for the lightweight division. Ferguson has won 2 of his last 5 fights, and has wins over former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (24-12-0), current #6 lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (31-13-0), and current #12 featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0). Ferguson entered the UFC when he won season 13 of the Ultimate Fighter, and after a singular loss in 2012, would embark on a 12 fight win streak spanning 6 years, culminating in an interim title win over Kevin Lee (19-7-0). “El Cucuy” is always engaging in wars, using creative striking and his nasty submission game to find victory. Ferguson is more than willing to walk through punches in order to enter the pocket, where he can land hard straight punches and devastating elbows. Ferguson uses his odd rhythm and movement to throw his opponents off, often fighting behind his jab and moving in and out to land shots. Training in his own gym, known as Snap Down City Academy, Ferguson has a solid wrestling background to back up his BJJ blackbelt, but doesn’t often pursue takedowns, averaging less than a takedown a fight. Ferguson does often find himself in grappling exchanges though, and averages over 1 submission attempt per fight, and is constantly looking for d’arce chokes. Chandler has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, and has wins over former UFC lightweight champions Benson Henderson (29-11-0) and Eddie Alvarez (30-8-0), and current Bellator lightweight champion Patricky Freire (24-10-0). Chandler is a former three time Bellator lightweight champion who entered the UFC in 2021 after a decade in Scott Coker’s promotion, so despite being a UFC newcomer, he’s by no means a rookie. Chandler is a very well rounded fighter, with good hands and excellent power for the division, but also a outstanding wrestling pedigree. Since entering the UFC Chandler has become a massive fan favorite, having outstanding fights with both of the men in the main event, Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira. Chandler uses a boxing style on the feet, largely relying on his hands to get the work done, but has some damaging power when he does throw kicks. On the ground, Chandler is a bit more likely to pursue ground and pound, but will grab a choke if the opportunity presents itself. Chandler is the biggest favorite on the main card at -360, making Ferguson a +280 underdog. There’s just too much value in Ferguson at +280 to ignore it, despite this recent 3 fight skid, I refuse to believe Tony Ferguson is washed. Maybe I’m just optimistic (and extremely biased), but I have to take Ferguson here, he has the grappling to match Chandler and he knows this could be his last fight in the promotion so he should come out like a bat out of hell. To make this even riskier, I’ll take under 1.5 rounds, I think this will be a war from the opening bell so I can’t imagine it goes all three rounds.

Picks: Ferguson +280, Under 1.5

#2 Carla Esparza vs (C)Rose Namajunas

Women’s Strawweight Title Bout

Carla Esparza: 19-6-0, 4 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Rose Namajunas: 12-4-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

A championship rematch, this fight originally took place to crown the inaugural women’s strawweight champion following the 20th season of the Ultimate Fighter, which Esparza won by 3rd round submission. Esparza has won all of her last 5 fights, and has wins over current #3 strawweight Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2), #6 strawweight Yan Xiaonan (13-3-0), and #10 strawweight Michelle Waterson (18-9-0). Esparza is and has been one of the best wrestlers in the division, and it’s always her easiest path to victory. Averaging over 3 takedowns a fight, Esparza is effective everywhere, able to land takedowns in the clinch or in open space. Training at Team Oyama, when on the ground, Esparza has excellent top control and ground and pound, often controlling her opponents for entire fights. Esparza usually looks for takedowns early and avoids striking exchanges, but her constant pursuit of grappling exchanges does make her a bit more unpredictable on the feet as her opponents are always anticipating the takedown. Esparza doesn’t have crazy power in her hands, and is far more likely to put you away with volume as opposed to strength, but surprisingly only has two finishes in her UFC career. Namajunas has won 4 of her last 5 outings, and has wins over former UFC strawweight champions Jessica Andrade (23-9-0), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0), and Zhang Weili (21-3-0). Out of Namajunas’ last 6 fights, 5 of them have been for titles, so she’s definitely comfortable under the big lights. Namajunas is very well rounded, with a solid kickboxing game along with excellent BJJ. Training at 303 Training Center, she has solid cardio and a great chin for the division, Namajunas has proven her ability to go five rounds without dropping the pace, averaging just about 66 strikes a fight in her last 5 bouts, and has also shown she has finishing power with her round one finishes of Jedrzejczyk and Zhang. With a black belt in both karate and taekwondo, Namajunas has very educated feet, along with crisp boxing. Averaging just under 2 takedowns a fight, Namajunas is certainly willing to engage grappling exchanges, and has good top control to complement her excellent submission game. Namajunas is the favorite here at -220, putting Esparza as the +180 underdog. I will immediately admit my bias, Rose is my favorite female fighter, but regardless of that I definitely believe she wins this fight. Since their first meeting, Namajunas has faced better opponents than Esparza as well as picked up better wins, and I think her grappling is more than sufficient enough to counteract Esparza’s wrestling. I’ll gamble a bit here and not only take under 4.5, but also take Namajunas by KO. She should have a massive advantage on the feet and the wrestling to keep it standing, so I believe she’ll be able to put Esparza away.

Picks: Namajunas by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 rounds

This Friday, Charles Oliveira missed the championship weight of 155 pounds, and has been stripped of his lightweight title. He is unable to win or defend the title Saturday, but Justin Gaethje is still competing for the title, and will be crowned champion if he wins against Oliveira.

#1 Justin Gaethje vs. Charles Oliveira

Lightweight Title Bout

Justin Gaethje: 23-3-0, 19 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Charles Oliveira: 32-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 20 Sub.

Despite some unfortunate circumstances around this fight, this is still an excellent matchup of two of the top fighters in the world. Gaethje has won 4 of his last 5, with wins over #5 lightweight Michael Chandler (22-7-0), #7 lightweight Tony Ferguson (26-6-0) for an interim title, and Donald Cerrone (36-16-0). Gaethje has never been in a boring fight in his entire career, relentlessly moving forward to throw bombs and do as much damage as possible. While Gaethje was known for throwing caution to the wind earlier in his UFC career, he showed in his win over Tony Ferguson that he’s fully capable of being technical, putting on a boxing masterclass before getting the TKO in the 5th round. To match his KO power, Gaethje has some of the hardest leg kicks in MMA, and is a weapon he’ll go to often to slow his opponents movement down, often opening them up to big shots. Despite having a collegiate wrestling background, Gaethje hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his UFC career, but does have an excellent takedown defense percentage of 73%. “The Highlight” is dangerous at all times, regardless of how gassed or how beaten, he will always come forward to try and put away his opponent. Training with Elevation Fight Team, Gaethje is at his best in the pocket throwing massive hooks, not quite brawling as much as he used to but still constantly getting into exchanges with his opponents. Oliveira has won all 5 of his last bouts (other than his fight with the scale), with wins over #2 lightweight Dustin Poirier (28-7-0), Michael Chandler (22-7-0), and Tony Ferguson (26-6-0). I covered Oliveira’s first title defense against Poirier in my first article (find it here), where he secured an impressive upset victory via 3rd round submission. Oliveira is the most prolific submission artist in UFC history, holding the UFC record for most submissions (15), as well as the records for most UFC finishes (18) and the most post fight bonuses (18). While best known for his grappling, Oliveira has significantly improved his striking game, and has shown some solid boxing as well as knockout power. While he’s definitely willing to engage on the feet, his easiest path to victory will always be on the ground, where he can pursue any number of the submissions he has in his arsenal. Training at Chute Boxe, Oliveira is a 3rd degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and is on his 12th year in the UFC, where despite a bad string of losses in his early career he’s managed to realize his title aspirations. Oliveira is a -135 favorite here, making Gaethje the +115 underdog. I imagine the betting lines got a lot closer after all the weight cut drama, but they should have been close to begin with. Gaethje definitely has the advantage on the feet and Oliveira definitely has the advantage on the ground, so it’s a question of who’s better at their own game. I believe Oliveira’s willingness to strike and tendency to get clipped, combined with what was clearly a bad weight cut, will lead to a Gaethje KO victory. Obviously, I have to pick under 4.5 rounds, I’d be utterly shocked if this fight saw a fifth round.

Picks: Gaethje by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 rounds