UFC 278

Prelims

Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Miranda Maverick: 12-4-0, 1 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Shanna Young: 9-5-0, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

A rematch of great young contenders, their first meeting came in the Invicta FC Flyweight Tournament in 2019. Maverick would go on to win that bout via first round submission and comes into this fight with wins in 3 of her last five outings. Her most impressive victories came over Sabina Mazo (9-4-0), Gillian Robertson (10-7-0), and Liana Jojua (8-5-0), along with what is, in my opinion, one of the worst judged split decision losses of all time to Maycee Barber (11-2-0). Training with Team Elevation, Maverick has good power in her hands and is willing to exchange in the pocket, and has shown a solid chin, having never been finished in her career. She rarely throws single shots, typically throwing big combinations while mixing in an array of kicks. Maverick is constantly moving and does an excellent job of changing levels with her strikes, particularly with her kicks, throwing to the head, legs, and body evenly. She is an excellent grappler, willing to work hard against the cage to get takedowns, and transitions very quickly once she does get the fight to the mat. She’s more likely to pursue a submission than ground and pound but has the power to finish people if she chooses to do so. Young has found victory in 2 of her last five fights, with those wins coming over Gina Mazany (7-6-0) and Maiju Suotama (1-4-0). She has a black belt in karate and shows it in her striking style, with a wide stance and plenty of lead leg attacks and powerful straights. Young has powerful kicks, often adding them to the end of combinations or throwing them out in the open. Training at Knoxville Martial Arts Academy, Young is at her best when she’s controlling the middle of the octagon, using her lead leg and combinations to pick her opponents apart. She does also have a grappling background, having been an All-American wrestler in college, and will usually pursue ground and pound if she’s in top position. “The Shanimal” (yikes) doesn’t usually initiate grappling exchanges, but has the cardio and experience to grapple if she needs to, remaining calm even in tough spots. Maverick is the second biggest favorite on the card at -550, making Young a +400 underdog. I definitely side with the oddsmakers on this one, I expect Maverick to overwhelm Young and pick up a finish, similar to their first fight. I’ll take both under 2.5 rounds as well as Maverick by finish.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Maverick by Finish

Sean Woodson vs. Luis Saldana

Featherweight Bout

Sean Woodson: 9-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Luis Saldana: 16-7-0, 7 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

A matchup between two hot up-and-comers, I’d be surprised to see the judges involved in this one. Woodson has won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins coming over Terrance McKinney (13-4-0), Yousef Zalal (10-5-1), and Kyle Bochniak (11-7-0). Woodson is an experienced striker with an amateur boxing record of 46-3, and it shows in the octagon, using fluid boxing to piece his opponents up. Woodson is the tallest active featherweight in the UFC at 6’2, and he uses his length well, throwing long punches and kicks from range along with plenty of feints. He is willing to throw some wild shots, particularly flying knees, and has a good variety of kicks to back up his boxing. Woodson does a good job of switching up his strikes, often throwing devastating uppercuts to the body, even securing a finish with body shots in his last fight against Colin Anglin (8-5-0). Training at Glory MMA, Woodson is typically hard to take down, especially against the fence, using his size to keep the fight on the feet. When he is taken down, he does a good job of getting back to his feet quickly and returning to the center of the cage where he’s most comfortable. Saldana has also won 4 of his last 5 fights, with wins over Bruno Souza (10-3-0), Jordan Griffin (18-9-0), and Vince Murdock (12-6-0). Saldana similarly has a boxing background, but is a much more wild striker, throwing spinning attacks and devastating kicks. Saldana is a very fluid striker, with quick hands and kicks, usually coming out quickly, although he did show improved patience in his last performance. He has gassed out later in fights before, but with this enhanced patience, he may have overcome this. With finishes in 14 of his 16 wins, Saldana is always trying to put his opponent away, whether on the ground or on the feet. Training at Fight Ready, Saldana has great movement on the feet and is willing to grapple, possessing solid takedowns and good top control. He seems comfortable on the ground and on the feet, not afraid to engage anywhere, but prefers striking a bit more. Woodson is a decent favorite here at -340, with Saldana the underdog at +270. I am surprised at how wide these odds are, Woodson’s record may be a lot shinier but the skill gap doesn’t seem to be very wide. It’s hard to predict a winner here, but I will take under 2.5 rounds, both are aggressive strikers and I expect them to push the pace. I will cautiously take the favorite here with Woodson by KO, Saldana’s gas tank problems in the past could be the difference maker, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Saldana stole this one.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Woodson by KO/TKO

Leonardo Santos vs. Jared Gordon

Lightweight Bout

Leonardo Santos: 18-6-1, 3 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Jared Gordon: 18-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Santos has found victory in 3 of his last 5 fights, with his best wins coming over Kevin Lee (19-7-0), Stevie Ray (25-10-0), and Efrain Escudero (30-14-0). Santos found his way into the UFC by winning the second season of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil, and despite his relatively advanced age of 42, he doesn’t have a ton of fights or miles on him. Training at the legendary Novo Uniao, Santos has a great Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree, but is confident in his striking and seems to mostly use his BJJ as a fallback, averaging just 1 takedown landed per fight. “Nenhum”  uses long straights and powerful kicks to the legs and body on the feet, exhibiting good power in both his punches and kicks. Santos also has great takedown defense, defending about 84% of takedowns attempted on him, and when the fight hits the mat, he’s very comfortable on top and on his back. Also, contrary to his age, Santos has shown solid cardio and seems to go 3 rounds with relative ease, but will sometimes gas himself out chasing a finish. Gordon has also won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his best victories coming over Joe Solecki (12-3-0), Bill Algeo (16-6-0), and Chris Fishgold (18-4-1). Averaging about 2 takedowns landed per fight, Gordon has great wrestling both in open space and on the fence, but is willing to stand and exchange as well. On the feet, he’ll often get into the pocket and lower his head, throwing powerful hooks and uppercuts. At range, he gets out of the way of damage well and often throws damaging leg kicks. When it does go to the ground, Gordon prefers ground and pound to chasing a submission, applying heavy top control and landing devastating shots. Training at Sanford MMA, Gordon does a great job of pushing the pace the entire fight, often relentless in his search for a takedown or engaging in brawls inside the pocket. Gordon is the favorite here at -300, making Santos a +240 underdog. I don’t think the odds fully represent how close this fight could be, both are very well rounded and experienced, as well as hard to put away. I’ll take over 2.5 rounds, I do expect a fair bit of grappling in this one and wouldn’t be surprised to see a decision. While I think Santos has the ability to win this fight, I think the cardio advantage of Jared Gordon is what will make the difference here. Santos has gassed out in his last two losses, and with the pace Gordon pushes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen again.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Gordon -300

#11 Marcin Tybura vs. #13 Alexandr Romanov

Heavyweight Bout

Marcin Tybura: 22-7-0, 9 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Alexandr Romanov: 16-0-0, 6 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Tybura has wins in 4 of his last 5 fights, with his best victories coming over Walt Harris (13-10-0), Ben Rothwell (39-14-0), and Maxim Grishin (32-9-2). Tybura is a great wrestler who’s willing to strike, possessing classic heavyweight KO power and great takedowns. On the feet, Tybura will throw a decent variety of kicks at range, as well as powerful hooks in the pocket. Tybura is at his best on the feet when he’s moving forward and pressuring his opponent, but his easiest path to victory is through his grappling. Tybura has an excellent takedown game, often slamming his opponent down and advancing position quickly on the ground. Training at Ankos MMA, he will usually pursue ground and pound as opposed to a submission, using heavy top control to land big shots. “Tybur” has shown he has the cardio to go 3 rounds, whether he’s grappling or striking, and seems to be comfortable wherever the fight goes. Entering his 6th year in the UFC, Tybura has faced a who’s who of the heavyweight division and is very experienced. Romanov is undefeated, with his most impressive wins coming over Jared Vanderaa (12-9-0), Juan Espino (11-2-0), and Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-9-1). Romanov has an excellent background in freestyle wrestling, often pursuing slam takedowns and suplexes, ragdolling massive heavyweights with ease. When he doesn’t slam his opponent, Romanov works hard on the fence and in open space to get the fight to the mat. “King Kong” transitions quickly on the ground, always trying to advance position to obtain a finish. Training at Lion Club, he seems to prefer submissions over ground and pound, but he has big power and can land serious shots when on top. When pursuing a submission, he will typically go for a choke, with 7 of his 9 submission victories coming via some form of choke. On the feet, Romanov is quick for a heavyweight and not afraid to let his hands go, gladly engaging in huge exchanges in the pocket. Romanov has only gone to the third round 4 times in his career, with just a single decision in 16 fights, so he is always looking for the finish, whether on the feet or on the ground. Romanov is the favorite in this bout at -380, with Tybura the underdog at +300. Once again, picking rounds is much easier in this bout, and I’m pretty confident this one ends within the distance, so I’ll take under 2.5 rounds. I hate to pick exclusively favorites, but Romanov is a favorite for a reason. Both are heavy handed wrestlers, and I think Romanov is the better wrestler, so I expect to see him pick up another finish.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Romanov by Finish

Main Card

I will not be covering either the Pedro vs. Hunsucker fight or Wu vs. Pudilova. After looking into both of these fights, I quite frankly think they’re garbage matchups and not worth the effort of writing a full preview of. The combined UFC record of Wu and Pudilova is 3-9, and Tyson Pedro is being fed a can who is 0-2 in the UFC (0-3 if you include the Contender Series) while the UFC tries to build him back up. Just for the hell of it though, I’ll give you my picks: Pedro by KO/TKO, Pudilova by Dec.

#3 Jose Aldo vs. #6 Merab Dvalishvili

Bantamweight Bout

Jose Aldo: 31-7-0, 17 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Merab Dvalishvili: 14-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

A fight between two of my favorite fighters, I’ve been looking forward to this matchup for awhile. Aldo comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 fights,  with those wins coming over #7 ranked UFC bantamweight Rob Font (19-6-0), #9 ranked UFC bantamweight Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0), and #5 ranked UFC bantamweight Chito Vera (20-7-1). Widely considered the featherweight GOAT, Aldo is a legend of the sport, holding 8 victories in championship fights and has been fighting the best in the world for over a decade. Considering how long he’s been around, Aldo is still just 35 years old, possessing as much power and speed as he had when he was a champion. Training at Novo Uniao, Aldo’s leg kicks, body shots, and devastating KO power is legendary, and his opponent is never safe at any point in the fight. Aldo also has some of the best anti-wrestling of all time, holding a takedown defense percentage of 90%, which is incredible considering he’s been in the UFC for 11 years. Now at bantamweight, Aldo looks just as sharp as he did at 145, and possibly even faster, and has a greater wealth of experience and knowledge than just about any fighter. Dvalishvili has won all of his last 5 fights, with his best wins coming over Marlon Moraes (23-10-1), Cody Stamann (20-5-1), and John Dodson (23-13-0). Dvalishvili has monstrous cardio, relentlessly pursuing takedowns and landing big flurries on the feet. He’s proved to be extremely hard to put away, shown in one of the craziest rounds of all time in his fight with Marlon Moraes (seriously, if you haven’t seen that fight, watch it). Training with the excellent Serra-Longo Fight Team, Dvalishvili’s constant wrestling threat helps to mask his striking, often coming forward with powerful hooks and big combinations. Fittingly nicknamed “The Machine,” Dvalishvili never seems to stop moving, whether he’s pressuring forward with his striking, pursuing a takedown, or landing devastating ground and pound. Dvalishvili is a slight favorite at -135, with Aldo the +115 underdog. Picking a winner in this fight is extremely challenging, not only as a fan of both fighters but from an unbiased standpoint as well. Dvalishvili could overwhelm Aldo with his wrestling, but I could also see Aldo being too much for Dvalishvili on the feet. I think the easier pick is going to be over 2.5 rounds, both are tough as nails and I’d be surprised to see either get finished. If I absolutely have to pick a winner, I’m going to cautiously take Aldo. I really have no justification, this is a great fight and I love both guys, I’m strictly going with my gut here.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Aldo +115

#6 Paulo Costa vs Luke Rockhold

Middleweight Bout

Paulo Costa: 13-2-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Luke Rockhold: 16-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

A matchup between two well respected middleweight contenders, I definitely expect fireworks. Costa has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his most impressive victories coming over Yoel Romero (14-6-0), Uriah Hall (18-11-0), and former UFC Welterweight champion Johny Hendricks (18-8-0). Costa is best known for his devastating power, steamrolling his way to a title shot with 4 straight knockouts followed by an all-time banger with Romero. After having some serious weight problems in his last bout, Costa looks even more shredded than before, seeming to have no issue with the weight cut. Although he practically never initiates grappling exchanges, “The Eraser” does have a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and is definitely competent on the ground. Training with the Pitbull Brothers, Costa is at his best when pressuring forward, throwing bombs and powerful kicks, especially to the body. Averaging almost 7 strikes landed per minute as well as about 7 strikes absorbed per minute, Costa is more than willing to eat a shot to land a shot. Rockhold has won 2 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over former UFC Middleweight champions Chris Weidman (15-6-0) and Michael Bisping (30-9-0), as well as former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida (26-12-0). Rockhold is a former UFC and Strikeforce Middleweight champion and hasn’t gone to a decision since 2012, fighting with a “kill or be killed” mentality. Training at the excellent American Kickboxing Academy, Rockhold has some of the best wrestling and top control in the sport, able to submit people or put them out with ground and pound. Rockhold also has excellent kickboxing, possessing arguably the nicest question mark kick in the sport, and has knockout power in both his kicks and punches. Although he seems to want to stand up and strike in his recent fights, his easiest path to victory is his wrestling, as his chin has looked questionable in his late career. Costa is a sizeable favorite in this one at -400, making Rockhold a +310 underdog. Considering how sporadically Rockhold has fought (5 times in the last 7 years) and how he’s been put out so many times, it’s pretty hard to go against the oddsmakers. Costa easily has the power to put him away, and is looking in much better shape after his weight debacle in the Vettori fight, so I expect Costa to put Rockhold to sleep. I’m taking Costa by KO/TKO as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Costa by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

#2 Leon Edwards vs (C) Kamaru Usman

Welterweight Title Bout

Leon Edwards: 19-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Kamaru Usman: 20-1-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

A title fight that’s actually a rematch, this is a fight fans have been waiting for for a long time. Edwards has not lost a fight since losing to Usman in 2015, with his best wins coming over former UFC Lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos (31-14-0), #10 ranked UFC Welterweight Vicente Luque (21-9-1), and Nate Diaz (21-13-0). Edwards is a very polished striker, holding the sixth fastest finish in UFC history with his 8 second KO in his second UFC fight, and is dangerous across all 25 minutes. Edwards has outstruck 8 of his last 10 opponents, and has averaged about 60 strikes landed in his last 5 fights (1 of which was a no contest ending in the first round, which really skewed the average), so he’s capable of putting out a decent volume of shots. In the time since his last loss, Edwards has truly become a complete MMA fighter, adding solid wrestling and grappling to his already excellent striking game. Training with Team Renegade, Edwards actually averages over 1 takedown landed per fight, so he is definitely willing to take it to the ground and is comfortable both on top and off his back. Usman is undefeated in the UFC, and has title defenses over #1 ranked UFC welterweight Colby Covington twice (17-3-0), #9 ranked UFC welterweight Jorge Masvidal twice (35-16-0), and #4 ranked UFC welterweight Gilbert Burns (20-5-0). There’s not much to be said about Usman that hasn’t already been said, the champion is quickly making his case for welterweight GOAT. Going into his 6th title defense, Usman is the longest reigning active champion, and has dominated everyone he’s faced. Coming into the UFC after winning the 21st season of The Ultimate Fighter, Usman started his career as a dominant wrestler, using takedowns and ground and pound to find victory. Usman has added some excellent boxing to complement his wrestling, possessing one of the best jabs in the business and some serious power in his hands. Training at the excellent ONX Sports, “The Nigerian Nightmare” is a serious problem anywhere the fight goes, able to find the finish both on the feet and on the ground with relative ease. Unsurprisingly, Usman is the favorite at -360, with Edwards the +280 underdog. It’s incredibly hard to pick against Usman at this point, even though I think Edwards has a better chance at victory than a lot of Usman’s recent opponents. I definitely think Edwards has the ability to win this fight, but I can’t say I really expect it. I’ll take Usman moneyline, as well as over 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Usman -360, Over 2.5 rounds