UFC 279

Prelims

Denis Tiuliulin vs. Jamie Pickett

Middleweight Bout

Denis Tiuliulin: 10-6-0, 8 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Jamie Pickett: 13-7-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A matchup of two heavy handed strikers, I’d be surprised if this went to a decision. Tiuliulin comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 bouts, with this being his second UFC fight after a short notice debut loss to Aliaskhab Khizriev (14-0-0). Tiuliulin is a fast starter, with only a single decision win on his record and the majority of his finishes coming in the first round. He’s at his best when he’s controlling the center of the cage, pressuring forward and throwing big hooks in the pocket. Training at Evolve MMA, Tiuliulin does a great job of turning fights into scraps, willing to take shots in order to stand and bang at close range. While he mostly uses his hands, he will throw kicks and flying knees at range, and has excellent killer instinct, always pouncing on his opponent when given an opportunity to end the fight. Tiuliulin rarely initiates grappling exchanges, and with 3 of his 6 losses coming via submission, he’s clearly more comfortable on the feet. Pickett has also won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his UFC victories coming over Joseph Holmes (8-2-0) and Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0). Pickett does tend to come out a little slow, often taking some time to find his range and timing before really engaging. Pickett mostly throws straights, usually only throwing hooks when he’s in the pocket, and often blitzes forward with big combinations. Although he starts slow, he has solid cardio, often picking up the pace in the later stages of the fight when his opponent begins to fade. Pickett is willing to grapple but mostly seems to do so when he’s losing the striking battle, and is more than willing to clinch against the cage for long stretches of time. Training at Port City Sports Performance, Pickett is a very lengthy striker who’s at his best when he’s controlling the center of the octagon and using his reach. “The Night Wolf” does have a solid arsenal of kicks particularly when at range, but favors his hands more, often throwing out naked kicks with no setup. Pickett is a slight favorite at -135, with Tiuliulin the underdog at +115. I think Pickett is getting the nod on experience alone, he’s a slow starter facing someone who’s by far at their best in the first round, making this a pretty tough matchup for him. I’ll definitely take under 2.5 rounds, but I also like Tiuliulin in this one. Pickett may have a grappling advantage, but I don’t think Tiuliulin will allow him enough time to use those skills.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Tiuliulin +115 

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Julian Erosa

Catchweight Bout

Hakeem Dawodu: 13-2-1, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Julian Erosa: 27-10-0, 11 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.

A matchup of two very exciting featherweights, I’m looking forward to this one. A fighter I’ve covered before (UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland), Dawodu has won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins coming over Michael Trizano (10-3-0), Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1), and Julio Arce (18-5-1). Dawodu is an excellent counter-striker, utilizing a sharp kickboxing style to damage his opponents. Dawodu does a great job of mixing up his strikes, evenly attacking the head, legs, and body with a variety of punches and kicks. Training at Champion’s Creed MMA, he possesses one of the more impressive kicking arsenals I’ve seen, particularly with his low kicks, attacking from different angles to deal serious damage to the legs and body. Dawodu will occasionally throw some flashy attacks, but has great fundamentals and keeps his striking technical throughout the entire fight. “Mean” has struggled on the ground in the past, getting taken down 9 times by Movsar Evloev (16-0-0), and has no interest in taking the fight to the mat, only clinching when he’s hurt. Another fighter I covered on the same card as Dawodu, Erosa has similarly won 4 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over Sean Woodson (9-1-1), Charles Jourdain (13-6-1), and Steven Peterson (19-10-0). Erosa has an awkward style on the feet, staying very upright with his hands down, throwing lots of looping hooks from strange angles. Erosa is seemingly always moving forward, whether that’s to initiate a grappling exchange or to land strikes, and has the cardio to do so over 3 rounds. “Juicy J” is very willing to get into brawls on the feet, gladly hanging in the pocket and exchanging combinations. Training at Xtreme Couture, Erosa averages about 2 takedowns landed per fight, and is a slick submission artist, with two UFC victories via D’arce choke, one of which was standing. Although Erosa has some KO losses on his record, the majority of those came in round 1, so if his opponent can’t take him out early he only gets more dangerous as the fight goes on. Dawodu is a decent favorite in this fight at -220, making Erosa a +185 underdog. This is truly going to be a matchup of who’s better at their own game; if Erosa can get the fight to the mat, Dawodu will have no response, but Dawodu is definitely a more technical striker than Erosa. I honestly can’t pick a winner in this one so I’ll just go with my bias, I love watching Erosa fight so I’ll take him to win this one by submission. Picking the rounds is just as challenging, but I’ll cautiously take under 2.5 rounds.

Hakeem Dawodu missed weight for this bout by 4 pounds, weighing in at 150 pounds.

Picks: Erosa by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

Johnny Walker vs. Ion Cutelaba

Light Heavyweight Bout

Johnny Walker: 18-7-0, 15 KO/TKO 2 Sub.

Ion Cutelaba: 16-7-1, 12 KO/TKO 2 Sub.

A fight between two men in need of a win, I don’t expect the judges to be involved in this one. Walker has won just one of his last 5 fights, and has wins over Ryan Spann (20-7-0), Misha Cirkunov (15-8-0), Khalil Rountree Jr. (11-5-0). When Walker first entered the promotion, he broke off a string of three straight first rounds knockouts, showing he’s clearly at his most dangerous early on. He has considerably slowed down his style since, seeming to prefer staying at range, mostly using his kicks to land damage. Walker is constantly moving and using feints, and is at his best when he’s moving forward and leading the fight, often struggling when put on the backfoot. Despite originally being known for his recklessness, Walker doesn’t seem to have any interest in getting into brawls, and is much better off in a technical kickboxing match than a wild scrap. Training at SBG Ireland, Walker is huge even for light heavyweight, and uses his size and reach to keep out of his opponents range and land strikes. Cutelaba has found victory in 1 of his last 5 fights, along with a draw, and has wins over Devin Clark (13-7-0), and Khalil Rountree (11-5-0). Famous for his antics at weigh-ins, Cutelaba has earned a reputation as a wild fighter, but has really focused on his wrestling in recent fights. He’s landed 20 takedowns in just his last 3 fights, and does a great job of timing his shots in open space. Cutelaba rarely pursues submissions, usually preferring to smash his opponent with devastating ground and pound (his two submission wins are both by omoplata somehow). On the feet, “The Hulk” has one-punch knockout power in his hands and is always pursuing a finish, never looking to just touch up his opponent. Training at CSA Moldova, Cutelaba averages about 5 strikes landed per minute, and never stops pressuring his opponent. Of his twelve knockouts, eleven of them came in the first round, showing Cutelaba is obviously at his most dangerous early on. Cutelaba is the favorite at -220 with Walker the underdog at +180. It’s hard to go against the odds here, Walker really hasn’t looked great lately and hasn’t done well in high pace brawls, which is exactly what Cutelaba does. I’ll take Cutelaba moneyline as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Cutelaba -220, Under 2.5 rounds

#4 (BW) Irene Aldana vs. #10 (BW) Macy Chiasson

Women’s Catchweight Bout

Irene Aldana: 13-6-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Macy Chiasson: 9-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

This fight features two powerful strikers in an important matchup for the division. Aldana has won 3 of her last 5 bouts, and holds wins over #6 ranked Bantamweight Yana Kunitskaya (14-6-0), #2 ranked Bantamweight Ketlen Viera (13-2-0), and Lucie Pudilova (14-7-0). Aldana is about as pure of a boxer as you see in MMA these days, using practically just her hands and very rarely throwing kicks. Aldana is patient on the feet, never overextending or getting reckless, but puts power into each shot and doesn’t seem content to point fight. Her most dangerous weapon is her left hook, which she used to gain 2 first round knockouts in her last 3 wins. Aldana isn’t the most physically intimidating, making her power a bit deceptive, as it seems opponents don’t give her the respect she deserves, then wake up on the mat. Training at Lobo Gym MMA, she makes great use of footwork and head movement to avoid damage, while averaging over 5 significant strikes landed per minute. Chiasson has also won 3 of her last 5, and has victories over Norma Dumont (7-2-0), Shanna Young (9-5-0), and Pannie Kianzad (17-6-0). Chiasson is a lengthy fighter, using her reach to attack both the head and body, often landing big shots when at range. While she’s mostly known for her striking, She has really upped her grappling lately, landing at least 1 takedown in all of her last 4 fights and 6 in her most recent bout. When she does get the fight to the mat, Chiasson uses solid top control to land ground and pound, not usually pursuing submissions. Training at Fortis MMA, Chiasson was the winner of the 28th season of the Ultimate Fighter, winning via finish in both the semifinal and final rounds of the tournament. She has a decent arsenal of kicks to back up her hands, throwing a good variety of kicks to the head and body, especially front kicks. What Chiasson lacks in volume she makes up for in size and power, as well as a good clinch striking game that complements her recently grappling tendencies well. Aldana is the favorite in this fight at -175, with Chiasson the underdog at +150. I’m honestly surprised the odds are as close as they are, I think there’s a sizeable skill gap between these two, with Aldana seemingly being more put together. Aldana definitely has the striking advantage, and although Chiasson has been grappling in her recent fights, Aldana has great takedown defense so I don’t think that will matter much. I’ll take over 2.5 rounds and Aldana moneyline.

Picks: Aldana -175, Over 2.5 rounds

Daniel Rodriguez vs. #14 (WW) Li Jiangliang

Catchweight Bout

Daniel Rodriguez: 16-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Li Jiangliang: 19-7-0, 10 KO/TKO 4 Sub.

A matchup of two exciting strikers, this should be an exciting fight. Rodriguez has found victory in four of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over Mike Perry (14-8-0), Tim Means (32-13-1), and Kevin Lee (19-7-0) (that’s where he fits into all of this). Rodriguez’ build is a bit deceptive for how he fights, using a Muay Thai style, although he does favor his hands over his kicks. Rodriguez is a great technical striker, fighting behind his jab and always pushing for a finish, but stays technical over 3 rounds. Training at Syndicate MMA, Rodriguez has great movement and footwork on the feet, attacking from different angles with a variety of strikes. “D-Rod” has some very fast kicks, usually throwing to the legs at the beginning and end combinations. He has also proven to possess serious toughness, exhibited in his incredible comeback against Dwight Grant (11-6-0) in one of my personal favorite one round fights of all time. He’s unlikely to initiate grappling, but has solid takedown defense and is usually able to get back to his feet where' he’s most comfortable. Li has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and holds victories over Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-6-0), Dhiego Lima (17-9-0), and Muslim Salikhov (18-3-0). Li is a solid striker with a background in Sanda (Chinese kickboxing), constantly moving and never keeping his head on the centerline. Li has been hard to hit in his UFC career, with a strike defense percentage of 58%, and only needs to land one shot to put an opponent away. While he doesn’t put out a ton of volume in terms of strikes, he makes up for it in accuracy and power, able to end the fight seemingly from anywhere at any time. Li is patient on the feet, often throwing out numerous leg kicks while looking for openings to land devastating power shots. Training at China Top Team, he averages about a takedown landed per fight and has a black belt in BJJ, so he is more than willing to grapple. He’s most dangerous when he’s able to cut off the cage and get into the pocket, throwing every punch with fight-ending intentions. Rodriguez is the favorite in this bout at -160, with Li the underdog at +135. I really have no clue how to predict this one, but I think Rodriguez’ forward pressure counters Li’s patience, so I’ll take Rodriguez by knockout as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Rodriguez by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Due to the reshuffling of the top 3 fights, these fighters both weighed in at different weights. Li weighed in at 170 pounds, with Rodriguez weighing in at 179.

Kevin Holland vs. #3 (WW) Khamzat Chimaev

A matchup I don’t think anyone could’ve predicted, I can’t wait to see this one. Holland has won 2 of his last 5 fights with one No Contest, and has wins over Joaquin Buckley (15-5-0), Jacare Souza (26-10-0), and Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0). Holland has surged in popularity since 2020, with fans loving his brash, loud-mouth style in which he will spend an entire fight talking to his opponent, regardless of whether he’s winning or losing. Holland is an aggressive striker, typically throwing combinations and always willing to engage on the feet. He does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket, although has no problem hanging in close to exchange on the inside. Training at Travis Lutter BJJ, Holland tends throw kicks when at range, using his kicks to set up his hands, often throwing kicks naked or at the start of combination. After fighting most of his UFC career at Middleweight, this marks his third venture into the Welterweight division, and has looked both bigger and stronger in the weight class. While he has struggled with his takedown defense in the past, he’s shown solid improvement as of late, and despite preferring striking actually has a slick submission game. Chimaev is undefeated, with his best wins coming over Gilbert Burns (20-5-0) and Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0). Chimaev is one of the biggest hype trains in the sport right now, only absorbing a single strike in his UFC career prior to the Burns fight. Chimaev has one-punch knockout power, and proved he’s able and willing to eat a shot, making him dangerous at all times on the feet. Training at Allstars Training Center, Chimaev is a dominant wrestler, using devastating ground and pound and heavy top pressure to finish his opponent on the mat. “Borz” is lengthy for the division and uses it well, often landing power shots at range and using his striking to set up his wrestling attack. It’s impossible not to mention that Chimaev is the cause of all the chaos on this pay-per-view, missing weight by 7.5 pounds, leading to a complete restructuring of the card. Chimaev is the sizable favorite at -500, with Holland the underdog at +380. It’s hard to pick against Chimaev especially with a short notice opponent, so I’ll take Chimaev by KO/TKO as well as under 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Chimaev by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 rounds

Chimaev missed weight for his originally scheduled bout against Nate Diaz, weighing in at 178.5 pounds, 7.5 pounds over the welterweight limit. Holland weighed in at 179 pounds for his originally scheduled catchweight bout against Daniel Rodriguez.

Nate Diaz vs. #11 (LW) Tony Ferguson

Welterweight Bout

Nate Diaz: 21-13-0, 4 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.

Tony Ferguson: 26-7-0, 13 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

A matchup fans have been asking for for years, I cannot wait for this to finally take place. Diaz has won 2 of his last 5 bouts, and has wins over former UFC Featherweight/Lightweight champion Conor McGregor (22-6-0), former UFC Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (25-14-0), and Donald Cerrone (36-17-0). Diaz is well known as one of the toughest and most battle-tested competitors in the sport, proving time and again both his granite chin and excellent cardio. On the feet, Diaz uses a classic boxing style keeping his hands high and throwing in high volume. Diaz doesn’t have crazy power by any means, but more than makes up for it in sheer volume, averaging just above 95 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights. Diaz is an excellent grappler with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and is extremely comfortable both on his back and on top. When on the ground, Diaz is much more likely to pursue a finish via submission as opposed to ground and pound. Ferguson has won just one of his last 5 fights, and has wins over former UFC Lightweight champions Rafael Dos Anjos (31-14-0) and Anthony Pettis (25-14-0), as well as #13 ranked featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0). Ferguson is one of the most beloved and respected fighters in the sport, going on a 12 fight win streak between 2013 and 2019. “El Cucuy” is well known for his unique style, moving awkwardly on the feet and doing odd things like throwing imaginary sand at his opponent. Ferguson has an excellent jab and solid boxing, and is always willing to engage on the feet, fighting with a “kill or be killed” mentality. He also has fantastic grappling, possessing solid wrestling and one of the best submission games in the sport. With all 8 of his career submission wins coming via some form of choke, the fight is practically over if Ferguson can get ahold of his opponents neck, especially if he locks in his patented D’arce choke. Surprisingly, Ferguson is the favorite here at -135, with Diaz the underdog at +115. I told myself I’d stop picking Tony to win, but after all the insanity of this card, I feel like I have to. I’ll take Ferguson moneyline and over 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Ferguson -135, Over 4.5 rounds