UFC 280

Prelims

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Malcolm Gordon

Flyweight Bout

Muhammad Mokaev: 8-0-0, 2 KO/TKO 3 Sub.

Malcolm Gordon: 14-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

A matchup of two excellent grapplers, this is a tough one to predict. Mokaev is undefeated, with his UFC victories coming over Cody Durden (13-4-1) and Charles Johnson (11-3-0). Mokaev made a big splash in his debut with a 1st round submission, exhibiting both knockout power and excellent grappling. While he’s a well rounded fighter, Mokaev definitely prefers to take the fight to the mat and is relentless in his pursuit of takedowns. Mokaev has great chain grappling, often stringing together takedowns especially when in the clinch. When he does get the fight to the floor, he’s more likely to pursue submissions than a ground and pound finish, shown in his last fight where he had 11 minutes of control time but only landed 12 significant strikes. Training at KHK MMA Team, “The Punisher” has excellent cardio and can easily grapple for 15 minutes, but is yet to be truly tested on the feet. He has shown some solid hands and good boxing, but it’s a small sample size. Gordon has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his UFC wins coming over Franciso Figueiredo (13-5-1) and Denys Bondar (16-4-0). Like his opponent Gordon is well rounded but prefers grappling, not often spending much time on the feet before shooting in for a takedown. 11 of his 19 career fights have ended in the first round, so Gordon is clearly at his most dangerous early, often coming out guns blazing. Gordon seems comfortable on his back as well as on top, and will pursue submissions from both positions. Training at Adrenaline Training Center, Gordon has a great sense of urgency, always looking for the finish and taking advantage of openings to land ground and pound. Also similar to his opponent, he hasn’t spent much time on his feet in the UFC, but tends to throw power shots to set up his takedowns. With 4 knockout losses on his record, his easiest path to victory by far is to get the fight to the ground. Mokaev is the biggest favorite on the entire card at -1000, with Gordon the +650 underdog. Honestly, I don’t think the skill gap is as massive as it’s being made out; both have BJJ black belts, neither have great striking, both never give up on takedowns. I think it’s Gordon’s two first round losses in the UFC that have lead to these odds being so juiced. This fight could end in the first minute, or be 15 minutes of clinching along the fence, so predicting the rounds is a real challenge. Both have a good amount of first round finishes so the logical choice here is under 2.5 rounds. I’d be an idiot to pick against the biggest favorite on the card, so I won’t, but do not be surprised if Gordon pulls off a submission and kills this hype train.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Mokaev by Finish

#8 Volkan Oezdemir vs. #10 Nikita Krylov

Light Heavyweight Bout

Volkan Oezdemir: 18-6-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Nikita Krylov: 28-9-0, 11 KO/TKO, 15 Sub.

This is a very exciting matchup of two fighters with vastly different styles. Oezdemir has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and holds victories over #9 ranked Light Heavyweight Paul Craig (16-5-1), #4 ranked Light Heavyweight Aleksander Rakic (14-3-0), and Ovince Saint Preux (26-16-0). Oezdemir has a background in kickboxing and holds a 5-0 record professionally prior to entering MMA, and it shows in his style. While he primarily uses his hands, tending to get into the pocket to land big shots, he has powerful kicks, and particularly devastating leg kicks. Despite his phonebox-fighting style, Oezdemir stays relatively composed, usually returning to the center of the octagon and resetting after attacking. Training at Allstars Training Center, Oezdemir has a solid chin and is willing to eat a shot to land one, but possesses good head movement as well. Oezdemir will occasionally initiate grappling exchanges, primarily preferring to remain on the feet, and has a takedown defense percentage of 86% in his UFC career. Krylov comes into this fight win wins in 2 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over #11 ranked Light Heavyweight Johnny Walker(19-7-0), Alexander Gustafsson (18-8-0), and Ed Herman (27-15-0). Averaging both over 1 takedown landed and 1 submission attempted per fight, Krylov definitely prefers to grapple. If his game plan is to grapple, he wastes no time, often shooting in for a takedown immediately. Training with YK Promotion, he uses smothering top control and is always pursuing a finish, staying active when on top and going for both submissions and ground and pound. When on his back, he’s more likely to try to escape or reverse position than attempt submissions, but has the ability to do so. On the feet, “The Miner” has a black belt in Kyokushin karate, so he has a kicking game, but will mostly use the big power he has in his hands to hurt his opponent. He’ll often use power shots to set up his takedowns, but will gladly engage in a stand up brawl if the opportunity presents itself. Krylov is a slight favorite here at -170, making Oezdemir a +145 underdog. This will be a classic case of “who does their specialty better.” If it stays standing, Oezdemir has an advantage, if it goes to the mat, Krylov has the advantage. I think Oezdemir has the takedown defense to keep this fight on the feet, which should be enough to secure him a victory. I’m taking both under 2.5 rounds and Oezdemir moneyline.

Picks: Oezdemir +145, Under 2.5 rounds

#5 Belal Muhammad vs. #8 Sean Brady

Welterweight Bout

Belal Muhammad: 21-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Sean Brady: 15-0-0, 3 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Belal Muhammad has found victory in 4 of his last 5 fights with one draw, and has impressive wins over Demian Maia (28-11-0), #7 ranked welterweight Stephen Thompson (16-6-1), and #9 ranked welterweight Vicente Luque (21-9-1). Primarily a wrestler, Muhammad prefers to take the fight to the mat, using his strong double leg takedowns to drag his opponents to the floor and land ground and pound. When the fight is on the feet, Muhammad uses a heavy handed boxing style, throwing lots of technical combinations, often using his punching ability to get in close for a takedown. There’s only one fight in his UFC tenure that he won without landing a takedown, and he averages over 2 takedowns landed per fight, so his game plan is pretty clear. Training at Roufusport, he averaged about 60 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights, and is more likely to use ground and pound than pursue a submission. Brady is undefeated, with his best wins coming over #12 ranked welterweight Michael Chiesa (18-6-0), Jake Matthews (18-5-0), and Court McGee (22-11-0). Brady is an excellent grappler averaging over 3 takedowns landed per fight in his UFC career, and has controlled every opponent he’s faced. Training at Renzo Gracie Philly, Brady advances incredibly quickly on the ground and remains patient on top, using smothering top control to find submission openings. All of his career submissions have come via some kind of choke, so the fight is basically over if he can get a hold of his opponent’s neck. On the feet Brady utilizes a boxing style, not moving his feet much but throwing constant feints with his hands. While he definitely prefers to take the fight to the mat, he won’t get desperate for takedowns and is willing to engage on the feet. Brady is the slight favorite in this one at -140, with Muhammad the underdog at +120. If you know me, you know I always have and always will despise Belal Muhammad, so I’m pretty much incapable of picking him to win. Beyond that though, I believe Brady is a much more dangerous grappler and will not let Muhammad do his usual lay-and-pray. I’m taking Brady by submission and under 2.5 rounds. Fuck Belal Muhammad.

Picks: Brady by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

#1 Katlyn Chookagian vs. #6 Manon Fiorot

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Katlyn Chookagian: 18-4-0, 2 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Manon Fiorot: 9-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

One of the most exciting matchups in this weight class in awhile, this should be a good one. Chookagian has 4 wins in her last 5 fights, and has fought a who’s who of women’s flyweight, with wins over Lauren Murphy (15-5-0), Alexis Davis (20-11-0) and Viviane Araujo (10-3-0). Training at Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, Chookagian is known for her boxing style on the feet, using crisp combos and excellent counter-punching to do damage to her opponents. Chookagian also has great kicks, and is able to use a wide variety of attacks and mix kicks in with punch combinations. While definitely a striker, Chookagian has the ability to mix it up on the ground, often resorting to ground and pound instead of submissions. She’s one of the most experienced fighters in the entire division, being tied for the most fights in the women’s flyweight division and has the second most wins of all time in that division. Her last two losses came against the very best of the division, being #4 ranked Jessica Andrade (22-9-0) and current women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0). Fiorot has won all of her last 5 bouts, with her best wins coming over #8 ranked women’s flyweight Jennifer Maia (19-9-1), Mayra Bueno Silva (9-2-1), and Tabatha Ricci (7-1-0). Fiorot is a credentialed striker, holding a black belt in karate and multiple national championships in kickboxing and Muay Thai. She’s been a force to be reckoned with on the feet in her UFC tenure, averaging about 78 significant strikes landed per fight, averaging over 6 significant strikes landed per minute. Training at Boxing Squad, she has excellent footwork and movement, as well as an arsenal of kicks that she mixes up constantly. Her best weapons are her lead leg attacks and her left hand, landing shots at range and always moving. Despite her background, “The Beast” has landed at least 1 takedown in all of her UFC fights, and has shown solid wrestling and top control. Although she has no submissions on her record, Fiorot has a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has submission ability, but seems more content pursuing ground and pound when on top. Fiorot is the favorite in this bout at -210, with Chookagian the underdog at +175. I understand why Fiorot is getting the nod here, but to overlook Chookagian is pretty foolish. She’s been at the top of the division for awhile and has only lost to the best, this is above and beyond the biggest test of Fiorot’s short MMA career. I think this will definitely be a competitive fight, but I think Chookagian has the skill and experience to steal this one. I’ll take Chookagian moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.

*Chookagian missed weight by 2 pounds

Picks: Chookagian +175, Over 2.5 rounds

#6 Beneil Dariush vs. #9 Mateusz Gamrot

Lightweight Bout

Beneil Dariush: 21-4-1, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Mateusz Gamrot: 21-1-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

This is an important matchup in the UFC’s best division, and I’ve been looking forward to this one. Dariush has won all of his last 5 bouts, coming into this fight on a 7 fight win streak with victories over Tony Ferguson (26-8-0), Diego Ferreira (17-5-0), and Scott Holtzman (14-5-0). Dariush is one of the most well rounded fighters in the UFC, holding black belts in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai. Dariush is more than willing to brawl on the feet, regularly getting into slugfests and hanging in the pocket to land big shots. Training at Kings MMA, Dariush will throw kicks when at range, and also has some solid knees in the clinch. Averaging about 2 takedowns landed per fight and one submission attempted per fight, his easiest route to victory is likely grappling, possessing excellent top control and wrestling. Dariush will shoot for takedowns in the open, but stays patient on top, never putting himself in compromising positions. He also has excellent takedown defense, defending 81% of takedowns attempted on him during his 7 year UFC tenure. Gamrot has won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his best victories coming over Jeremy Stephens (29-20-0), Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0), and Diego Ferreira (17-5-0). Like his opponent, he is an incredibly well rounded fighter, and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. When he’s striking, he’s constantly moving and staying at range, remaining patient and picking his shots. What he lacks in volume he makes up for in power, throwing every shot with knockout intentions. Training at American Top Team, Gamrot is averaging a ludicrous 5 takedowns landed per fight, and has defended 90% of takedowns attempted on him. He is an excellent wrestler, refusing to give up on takedowns and never staying still on the ground, whether on top or bottom. A former KSW champion “Gamer” has excellent cardio, seemingly always moving whether he’s on the ground or on his feet. Gamrot is the favorite at -190, with Dariush the +160 underdog. I will as usual admit my bias, I love Dariush (how could you not after his fight with Drakkar Klose). Still, I think he is one of the most continually overlooked fighters at 155, and is being overlooked again. I think his constant pressure on the feet could prove a challenge for Gamrot, who mostly pushes the pace when he’s on the mat. If Dariush’s takedown defense can hold up, I really think he should win this one. I’ll take Dariush moneyline and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Dariush +160, Under 2.5 rounds

#1 Petr Yan vs. #11 Sean O’Malley

Bantamweight Bout

Petr Yan: 16-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Sean O’Malley: 15-1-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Arguably one of the most insane matchups we’ve ever been so blessed to receive, I cannot believe this fight is finally happening. Yan comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 bouts, and holds wins over #4 ranked bantamweight Cory Sandhagen (15-4-0), former featherweight champion Jose Aldo (31-8-0), and UFC Hall of Famer Urijah Faber (35-11-0). Yan is one of the most dangerous fighters this division has seen in years, with both destructive striking and dominant grappling. On the feet, Yan has excellent hands and devastating kicks, using both in tandem to damage his opponent. Training at Tiger Muay Thai, Yan never lets up his pace, always pursuing a finish and throwing with maximum power and speed. He has excellent cardio and can push a crazy pace for 25 minutes, whether he’s grappling or striking. On the ground, Yan has great takedowns and top control, often landing brutal ground and pound. This is his first fight in 2 years that isn’t for a title, with all of his UFC losses coming in title fights against the current champion Aljamain Sterling (21-3-0). O’Malley has won 4 of his last 5 outings, with his best wins coming over Raulian Paiva (21-5-0), Thomas Almeida (22-5-0), and Eddie Wineland (24-16-1). O’Malley is known for his wild striking style, throwing out a variety of spinning and flying kicks seemingly at will. Averaging nearly 8 significant strikes landed per minute, O’Malley is always pursuing the finish holding only two decision victories in the UFC, with the rest all coming via KO. O’Malley rarely engages in grappling exchanges, much preferring to stay at range and pick at his opponent with long punches and kicks. Beyond his arsenal of flashy attacks, his most dangerous weapon are his straight punches, often putting them at the end of combinations and regularly resulting in knockdowns or knockouts (see O’Malley vs Wineland). Despite his massive popularity, O’Malley is yet to truly be tested in the octagon, so this is a huge jump in competition for him. Yan is the favorite in this one at -270, making O’Malley the +220 underdog. Honestly, Yan should be an even bigger favorite. If he chooses to wrestle pretty much at all this fight is as good as over, and I think he’s a stronger and better striker than O’Malley. I’m going to take Yan by KO as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Yan by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Aljamain Sterling (C) vs. #2 TJ Dillashaw

Bantamweight Title Bout

Aljamain Sterling: 21-3-0, 2 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

TJ Dillashaw: 18-4-0, 8 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

A title fight between two controversial figures, this should be quite the matchup. Sterling comes into this fight with a 7 fight winning streak, with wins over #1 ranked bantamweight Petr Yan twice (16-3-0), #4 ranked bantamweight Cory Sandhagen (15-4-0), and #8 ranked bantamweight Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0). Sterling is best known for his excellent grappling, possessing a dangerous submission game as well as solid wrestling. Sterling has smothering top control, often using ground and pound to set up his submission attempts. To back up his grappling, Sterling has some solid kickboxing on the feet, with great speed in both his hands and his kicks. Averaging about 87 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights, Sterling has the cardio to push a furious pace for all 25 minutes, whether on the feet or on the ground. Training at Serra-Longo Fight Team, Sterling averages nearly two takedowns landed per fight along with about 1 submission attempt per fight, so his easiest path to victory is pretty clear. Dillashaw has one 4 of his last 5 fights, and holds victories over former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt twice (12-5-0), former bantamweight champion Renan Barao twice (34-9-0), and Raphael Assuncao (28-9-0). Training at Treigning Lab, Dillashaw is someone always in the conversation for the 135 pound GOAT, and for good reason. Arguably one of the best strikers the division has ever seen, Dillashaw has lightning fast hands and great power for the weight class. Dillashaw is a finisher, especially in title fights, with all of his title victories coming via KO. He also has great wrestling, averaging nearly 2 takedowns landed per fight, and is dangerous anywhere the fight goes. The CEO of EPO has 6 fights on his UFC record in which he landed more than 100 significant strikes, so he can match his power with volume. He also has defended 86% of takedowns attempted on him in his UFC career, so if he’s taking over on the feet it’s quite the challenge to take him down. Sterling is the favorite here at -170, with Dillashaw the +145 underdog. My bias continues on this card: I hate Dillashaw, but I don’t think this affects my pick too much. In my opinion, Dillashaw lost that fight against Sandhagen, so he shouldn’t even be here. I think Sterling’s grappling will be too much for Dillashaw, but if it stays on the feet, Aljo could be in trouble. Either way, I’m taking Sterling moneyline and over 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Sterling -170, Over 4.5 rounds

#1 Charles Oliveira vs. #4 Islam Makhachev

Lightweight Title Bout

Charles Oliveira: 33-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 21 Sub.

Islam Makhachev: 22-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.

Probably the best matchup in years, I am absolutely ecstatic for this fight. Oliveira enters this bout on an 11 fight win streak, with title victories against #5 ranked lightweight Michael Chandler (23-7-0), #2 ranked lightweight Dustin Poirier (28-7-0), and #3 ranked lightweight Justin Gaethje ((23-4-0) say what you want, this was a title defense). Oliveira could be the most well rounded fighter of all time, with some of the most deadly BJJ in the UFC and absolute bricks for hands. It truly doesn’t matter where the fights ends up, his opponent is never safe, whether he’s on top, bottom, or standing up. While he established himself as a submission artist, Oliveira has really rounded out his game, adding some excellent Muay Thai to his skillset. Averaging over 2 takedowns landed per fight and nearly 3 submission attempts per fight, it’s basically a given to see grappling in an Oliveira fight. Training at Chute Boxe, he has proven his ability to stay calm in deep waters, regularly getting dropped in his fights only to come back and find a way to win. Makhachev comes into this fight on a 10 fight win streak, with his best wins coming over #14 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker (21-12-0), #10 ranked lightweight Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0), and Thiago Moises (16-6-0). Makhachev is famously the protege of Khabib Nurmagomedov, so he unsurprisingly fights nearly identical to his mentor. With absolutely dominant wrestling and an extensive sambo background, Makhachev is an animal on the ground, always pursuing the finish. Averaging just over 3 takedowns landed per fight, Makhachev rarely wastes much time on the feet, often shooting immediately. Makhachev has excellent top control, landing vicious ground and pound until his opponent is out or until he can find a submission. While he doesn’t always have crazy output in terms of punches, he often doesn’t need to, finding the finish in the first round in his last two fights. Somehow, Makhachev is the favorite at -190, with Oliveira a +160 underdog. If you’ve read any of my older articles, you’d know I’ve learned my lesson when it comes to counting out Charlie Olives. Honestly, at this point he might be the GOAT of plus money. I don’t think I need to explain myself: I’m taking Oliveira by finish, and under 4.5 rounds. The champion has a name, and it’s Charles Oliveira.

Picks: Oliveira by Finish, Under 4.5 rounds