UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen

Prelims

Chase Hooper vs. Steve Garcia

Featherweight Bout

Chase Hooper: 11-2-1, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Steve Garcia: 12-5-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A classic matchup of a veteran and an up-and-comer, this is an interesting fight. Hooper has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his UFC victories coming over Felipe Colares (10-4-0), Peter Barrett (11-6-0), and Daniel Teymur (7-4-0). Hooper is best known for his grappling skills, possessing a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and some excellent submission abilities. He tends to go for the takedown early, landing on average over 1 takedown per fight, usually being most effective when using trips in the clinch as opposed to shooting out in the open. He also averages over 2 submission attempts per fight and does prefer to find a finish via tap out as opposed to ground and pound. Training at Combat Sport and Fitness, Hooper is one of the tallest fighters in the division at 6’1 and has been showing improved striking in his recent fights. He will use his length to throw kicks at range, then will blitz forward throwing big combinations, typically to set up a takedown. Garcia has similarly won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his lone UFC win coming over Charlie Ontiveros (11-9-0). Although he only has three UFC fights, Garcia fought 7 times in Bellator, so he’s been fighting at the top level for a while. Training at Jackson-Wink MMA, Garcia is a well-rounded fighter with a kickboxing background, with a tendency to get wild on the feet. He’s always coming forward, more than willing to bang in the pocket and make fights dirty. He’s shown an ability to pull off slam takedowns, as well as having solid top control and damaging ground and pound. It seems he resorts to his wrestling when things aren’t going his way on the feet, but will throw some damaging elbows if he does get on top. His wild nature on the feet hasn’t always worked in his favor, getting put out cold in his last fight against Maheshate (9-1-0), and getting dropped multiple times in his fight with Ontiveros before pulling off a comeback win. Hooper is the favorite in this fight at -260, with Garcia a +210 underdog. This feels like a bit of an easy one, Garcia has been dominated by grapplers before, being controlled for 13 minutes in a loss to Luis Pena (11-4-0). When you add that with how devastatingly he was put away in his last fight, it’s hard not to pick Hooper here. I’ll take Hooper by finish, but I’m going to take a risk and go over 2.5 rounds. Hooper seems to have a tendency to win fights super late, so I don’t love the under.

Picks: Hooper by Finish, Over 2.5 rounds

Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima

Heavyweight Bout

Andrei Arlovski: 34-20-0, 17 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Marcos Rogerio De Lima: 19-9-0, 13 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Two respected heavyweights face off for the first time in an excellent matchup. Arlovski has won 4 of his last 5 fights and is a former UFC Heavyweight Champion, holding victories over former UFC heavyweight champions Frank Mir (19-13-0), Fabricio Werdum (24-9-1), and Tim Sylvia (31-10-0). One of the most accomplished fighters in UFC history, Arlovski is the all-time heavyweight record holder for wins, total fights, total strikes, and significant strikes landed, and total fight time. With his first UFC bout coming in 2000, Arlovski is extremely experienced and comfortable everywhere. In his late career, he uses his speed and footwork to hurt his opponents more than his power, averaging about 75 significant strikes landed per fight in his last 5 victories. Training at American Top Team, Arlovski rarely throws single shots, often dipping his head and throwing combinations. “The Pitbull” doesn’t tend to initiate grappling exchanges but has great takedown defense, defending 76% of takedowns attempted on him in his 38-fight tenure. De Lima comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 outings, those coming over Ben Rothwell (39-14-0), Maurice Greene (10-7-0), and Ben Sosoli (7-3-0). With his first 6 UFC fights all ending in the first round and only 3 decisions in 13 UFC fights, De Lima is obviously at his most dangerous early on. De Lima throws every shot with fight-ending intentions, usually throwing a half dozen hooks in combination. He will mix in kicks when he’s at range, but he’s typically found banging it out in the pocket. Somehow also training at American Top Team, De Lima averages over 1 takedown landed per fight and has smothering top control if he can get his opponent down. He’s far more likely to go for the ground and pound finish than a submission, landing with just as much power as he does on the feet. It seems his wins go one of two ways; devastating first-round KO, or 3 rounds of top control. De Lima is the favorite at -240 with Arlovski the +200 underdog. I’m honestly a little surprised with the odds here, Arlovski has been rolling lately whereas De Lima has pretty much always traded wins and losses. I’m sure the reality here is people think Arlovski’s chin is gone and De Lima will have no trouble, but this is pretty far from the truth. Arlovski is much faster than De Lima and has much better cardio, so if he can stay on his feet and keep moving he should be able to piece De Lima up. I’m taking Arlovski moneyline and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Arlovski +200, Under 2.5 rounds

Phil Hawes vs. Roman Dolidze

Middleweight Bout

Phil Hawes: 12-3-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Roman Dolidze: 10-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Two powerful, well-rounded fighters are set to face off in this one. Hawes has won 4 of his last 5 fights and holds wins over Kyle Daukaus (11-3-0), Nassourdine Imavov (12-3-0), and Jacob Malkoun (7-2-0). With a background in collegiate wrestling, Hawes’ easiest path to victory is grappling, averaging over 2 takedowns landed per fight. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Hawes is very powerful, often landing slam takedowns, and is very hard to shake off when he’s in top position. When he does get the fight to the mat, Hawes seemingly never stops punching, definitely preferring a ground and pound finish to a submission. On the feet, Hawes stays patient and fights behind his jab, and what he lacks in volume he makes up for in accuracy and power. Hawes has shown marked improvement in his striking, now throwing head kicks and beautiful short elbows on the inside. He has shown an increased willingness to strike lately but has shown a tendency to panic wrestle if he gets caught with a big shot. Dolidze similarly has won 4 of his last 5 outings and has wins over Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0), Khadis Ibragimov (8-4-0), and John Allan (13-7-0). Dolidze has a background in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Sambo and is an accomplished grappler outside of MMA. Averaging over 2 takedowns landed a fight, Dolidze is most at home on the mat where he also averages over 1 submission attempt per fight. Dolidze is great in the clinch and very hard to shake off, and has shown an ability to throw some damaging knees to the head when clinched against the fence. Training at Xtreme Couture, Dolidze won’t punch a ton while grappling, mostly focusing on improving his position and controlling his opponent. Dolidze has good power in his hands and seems to prefer to counter-strike when on the feet, not moving his feet a ton but always moving his head. He gets his best work done in the clinch and when he breaks off from the clinch, often throwing power shots in close. Hawes is a small favorite in this bout at -170, making Dolidze a +145 underdog. While their records and UFC tenures are similar, the quality of their opponents are not. Hawes has faced and beaten much better competition than Dolidze has, whose UFC wins hold a combined UFC record of 4-13-2. Hawes isn’t going to be controlled against the fence, which seems to be Dolidze’s bread and butter, so this isn’t a tough decision. I’m taking Hawes by KO as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Hawes -170, Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

#13 Dustin Jacoby vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Light Heavyweight Bout

Dustin Jacoby: 18-5-1, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Khalil Rountree Jr.: 11-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Two high-level strikers are set to collide in this bout. Jacoby has won 4 of his last 5 fights with one draw and has wins over Da-Un Jung (15-3-1), Michael Oleksiejczuk (17-5-0), and Darren Stewart (12-9-0). Jacoby is a former professional kickboxer holding a record of 18-8-0, spending time in the premier kickboxing promotion Glory. His experience is visible in his fighting style, as he possesses excellent footwork and movement, as well as a great variety of attacks. He’s effective both at range and in the pocket but unsurprisingly prefers to stay at range where he can use his arsenal of kicks and punch combinations. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, his hands seemingly never stop moving as he’s always feinting or throwing something. He has solid output for a light heavyweight but also does a great job of managing his energy, not overexerting himself, and keeping the same pace for all 15 minutes. Jacoby is willing to grapple and will occasionally shoot for a takedown, but largely prefers to keep it on the feet where he’s most dangerous. Rountree has found victory in 3 of his last 5 bouts, with those wins coming over Karl Roberson (9-6-0), Eryk Anders (14-7-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (11-5-0). He scored the only oblique kick finish in UFC history when he absolutely obliterated Bukauskas’ knee in his second most recent fight. Rountree has a background in Muay Thai, but his best weapons are probably his hands. He’ll regularly explode forward swinging massive looping hooks throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions. Training at Syndicate MMA, Rountree is capable of fighting a slower, more technical fight despite his tendency to get wild, but can gas himself out sometimes in his search for a finish. He’s at his best early on in a fight and when he can control the center of the octagon, using his forward pressure and crazy power to damage his opponents. Rountree has never landed a takedown in the UFC and very rarely initiates grappling exchanges. Jacoby is the favorite in this bout at -175 making Rountree a +150 underdog. This is a very tough fight to predict, both have similar styles and solid experience. Considering this is going to be a kickboxing match inside a cage, I think Jacoby’s legitimate kickboxing experience and gas tank will win this one for him. I’ll take Jacoby moneyline, but the rounds are just as hard to pick. This could end in the first 15 seconds or could be 15 minutes of technical striking. I’ll roll the dice and take under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Jacoby -175, Under 2.5 rounds

Josh Fremd vs. Tresean Gore

Middleweight Bout

Josh Fremd: 9-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Tresean Gore: 4-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

A matchup of two UFC newcomers, I have no idea what to expect in this fight. Fremd has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his one UFC fight being a loss to Anthony Hernandez (10-2-0). Fremd is a patient boxer who fights behind his jab and picks his shots. He has a solid kicking game but tends to throw a lot of naked kicks, not usually throwing them in combinations. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, Fremd’s best weapon is his left hand, often damaging his opponent with jabs and lead hooks. While he tends to fight at a relatively slow pace, he does pick up his volume and urgency as the fight goes on, making him more dangerous the longer a fight goes for. Fremd is willing to grapple and has solid offensive wrestling, able to land takedowns in open space as well as along the fence. Like on the feet he isn’t too aggressive from top position, focusing on advancing his position as opposed to doing a ton of damage. Fremd has the power in his hands to finish a fight, but his tendency to throw single shots often works against him. Gore has found victory in 3 of his last 5 outings, with his most recent victory coming over Gilbert Urbina (6-3-0) in the semifinals of the Ultimate Fighter 29. Gore is incredibly powerful and explosive, with serious power in both his punches and his kicks. He throws everything with maximum power and has the ability to end a fight with one shot. Gore is constantly moving forward, throwing kicks at lightning speed and holding the center of the cage. Training at American Top Team, Gore will initiate grappling exchanges and has excellent takedown defense, but seems most comfortable on the feet. Gore has a tendency to be a bit too patient on the feet, always looking for that perfect shot to end the fight with. Like his opponent, he seems to get more comfortable and increase his pace as the fight goes on, and is dangerous at any time. Gore does seem to favor his kicks over his punches a bit, often throwing numerous kicks before opening up with his hands. Fremd is a slight favorite in this fight at -160, with Gore returning as a +135 underdog. This is a brutal fight to predict: both tend to come out flat and be a bit too patient on the feet, both have the ability to wrestle, and both lack experience. Honestly, I think the biggest thing that sets them apart is Gore’s power, if he actually chooses to let his hands go he can do some serious damage. Pretty much for this reason alone, I’m going to take Gore moneyline, but the rounds are just as tough to predict. These guys could go out there and exchange jabs for 15 minutes, or someone could be asleep in 15 seconds. I think I’ve picked every fight to go under so far, so I’ll take the over here.

Picks: Gore +135, Over 2.5 rounds

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Jared Vanderaa

Heavyweight Bout

Waldo Cortes-Acosta: 7-0-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Jared Vanderaa: 12-9-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

A classic big boy brawl, this should be a fun heavyweight fight. Acosta is making his UFC debut in this bout and is undefeated, with his last bout being an LFA heavyweight title victory over Thomas Petersen (6-1-0). Acosta is a powerful striker, utilizing a boxing style, and has quick hands for a heavyweight. His best weapon is definitely his right hand, regularly throwing wide hooks and devastating overhands. Although he favors his right, Acosta has power in both hands and is constantly seeking a finish. Training at UKF Gym, Acosta seems to be most at home in a brawl, working inside the pocket and throwing knees and elbows in the clinch. When he lets his hands go he’s shown he can throw long, technical combinations but will often throw single shots. While he won’t usually initiate grappling exchanges, he has shown a solid ability to get back to his feet. When Acosta is on top he will often throw plenty of elbows and does a great job of not putting himself in danger in order to land ground and pound. Vanderaa has won just 1 of his previous 5 bouts, with that victory coming over Justin Tafa (5-3-0). Like his opponent Vanderaa is a classic brawler, regularly lowering his head and moving forward to throw big hooks. Vanderaa is not afraid to step into the pocket and let his hands go, regularly fighting in a phone booth. Training at Team Quest-Portland, he has a solid chin and is more than willing to eat a shot in order to land one. Vanderaa mixes up his strikes well and possesses some powerful kicks, mostly throwing to the body but occasionally throwing head kicks when at range. Vanderaa is great at striking in the clinch, often landing body kicks and knees when entering and landing hooks and elbows when exiting. He does seem to have solid cardio for a heavyweight, retaining his speed and power across all 15 minutes. He is willing to grapple and has good clinch control abilities, and trains at a wrestler-heavy camp so I’m sure he has solid grappling skills. Acosta is the favorite at -210 with Vanderaa the underdog at +175. It’s hard to pick Vanderaa here with the skid he’s been on lately, but I think this could turn out to be a pretty close brawl. Still, though, Acosta should take it, I think he has a speed and power advantage and in this type of matchup, that’s all you really need. I’ll go Acosta by KO and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Tim Means vs. Max Griffin

Welterweight Bout

Tim Means: 32-13-1, 19 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Max Griffin: 18-9-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

A fight between two exciting veterans, I’d be surprised if the judges are involved in this one. Means has won 3 of his last 5 outings and has wins over Mike Perry (14-8-0), Thiago Alves (28-15-0), and Dhiego Lima (17-9-0). Entering his 10th year in the UFC, Means is about as gritty as they come and is always down for a good scrap. Means has excellent dirty boxing in the clinch as well as devastating knees and elbows. Despite his tendency to brawl he does stay technical and very rarely overextends or overexerts himself, not often missing punches. Means has crisp boxing and underrated power and does an excellent job of attacking both the head and body equally. Training at Fit NHB, Means has a pretty upright stance on the feet but moves his head very well, and can definitely eat a shot. He averages about one takedown landed per fight so he is willing to grapple, and does a great job of controlling his opponent when he’s on top. While he doesn’t put out crazy volume there are rarely lulls in his fights, and he’s averaging about 65 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights. Griffin has also found victory in 3 of his last 5 outings, with his last three wins coming over Carlos Condit (32-14-0), Song Kenan (16-6-0), and Ramiz Brahimaj (10-4-0). Griffin is constantly moving on the feet, often staying at range and working his low kicks. His best weapon by far is his right hand, which he uses to throw damaging straights and overhands. Training at MMAGold, Griffin is at his best when he’s throwing first and coming forward, controlling the pace of the fight. He can get pulled into brawls a bit to his detriment, as he’s really at his most dangerous at range where he can throw long right hands. Griffin has power in both hands and the ability to end a fight with a single shot and pushes a solid pace on the feet. Like his opponent he doesn’t put out crazy volume but isn’t a slow fighter either, averaging about 55 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights. He averages over a takedown landed per fight so he is willing to grapple and has great takedown defense as well, sitting at 75% for his UFC career. Griffin is the favorite in this fight at -190, with Means returning as the underdog at +160. I think this is going to be a very competitive fight, both have plenty of experience and are very well-rounded. I think Griffin’s power and speed advantage will be the difference here, so I’ll take Griffin moneyline, but this one could come down to the wire. Both guys are very tough and hard to KO, and I’d be shocked to see a submission in this one, so I’ll take over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Griffin -190, over 2.5 rounds

#5 Calvin Kattar vs. #6 Arnold Allen

Featherweight Bout

Calvin Kattar: 23-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Arnold Allen: 18-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

This is an incredibly important fight for the division and sees two dangerous men collide in the octagon. Kattar has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with those wins coming over #8 ranked featherweight Giga Chikadze (14-3-0), #12 ranked featherweight Dan Ige (15-6-0), and Jeremy Stephens (29-20-0). Kattar is a very technical, patient boxer who will fight behind his jab before letting go brutal combinations with his hands. Kattar pushes an insane pace, averaging nearly 113 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights, and can easily push this pace over 5 rounds. Training with the New England Cartel, Kattar does a great job of lulling his opponent in by staying patient and not putting out a ton of offense before letting go big combinations and darting back out to range. While he won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges he has shown some solid wrestling abilities and has outstanding takedown defense, holding a defense percentage of 91%. Kattar is one of the toughest guys to finish in the sport, proven by the 445 significant strikes he absorbed in a UD loss to #1 ranked featherweight Max Holloway (23-7-0). Allen is undefeated in the UFC, with his last three wins coming over #12 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker (21-12-0), #11 ranked featherweight Sodiq Yusuff (13-2-0), and Nik Lentz (30-12-2). Allen is an excellent technical striker, possessing serious speed and power in his hands as well as a solid arsenal of kicks. Allen has some of the best striking defense in the UFC, only absorbing about 2 significant strikes per minute on average, with a significant strike defense percentage of 66%. Allen has beautiful combinations and rarely throws single shots, and will often mix in head and body kicks at the end of his combinations. He throws everything with a ton of power but stays accurate, allowing him to push his pace across an entire fight. Training at BKK Fighters, he averages over 1 takedown landed per fight and seems equally comfortable on the ground as he is on the feet. Allen is seemingly never in the same place, constantly moving and attacking from different angles, which is part of why he’s so hard to hit. Allen is a slight favorite here at -120, making Kattar a +100 underdog. I think this is a tough matchup for both guys, with Kattar’s toughness and forward pressure countering Allen’s speed and movement well. I think ultimately Allen’s well-roundedness will be the difference maker as if he’s able to get Kattar down it should be a pretty easy path to victory for him from there. I’ll take Allen moneyline as well as over 4.5, it’s practically impossible to finish Calvin Kattar.

Picks: Allen -120, Over 4.5 rounds