UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos

Prelims

Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young

Flyweight Bout

Miranda Maverick: 12-4-0, 1 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Shanna Young: 8-5-0, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

This fight is a rematch in a matchup of great young contenders, with their first meeting coming in the Invicta FC Flyweight Tournament in 2019. Maverick would go on to win that bout via first-round submission and comes into this fight with wins in 3 of her last 5 outings. Her most impressive victories came over Sabina Mazo (9-4-0), Gillian Robertson (10-7-0), and Liana Jojua (8-5-0), along with what is in my opinion one of the worst judged split decision losses of all time to Maycee Barber (11-2-0). Training with Team Elevation, Maverick has good power in her hands and is willing to exchange in the pocket, and has shown a solid chin, having never been finished in her career. She rarely throws single shots, typically throwing big combinations while mixing in an array of kicks. Maverick is constantly moving, and does a good job of changing levels with her strikes, particularly with her kicks, throwing to the head, legs, and body evenly. She is an excellent grappler, willing to work hard against the cage to get takedowns, and transitions very quickly once she does get the fight to the mat. She’s more likely to pursue a submission than ground and pound but has the power to finish people if she chooses to do so. Young has found victory in 2 of her last 5 fights, with those wins coming over Gina Mazany (7-6-0) and Maiju Suotama (1-4-0). She has a black belt in karate and shows it in her striking style, with a wide stance, plenty of lead leg attacks, and powerful straights. Young has powerful kicks, often adding them to the end of combinations or throwing them out in the open. Training at Knoxville Martial Arts Academy, Young is at her best when she’s controlling the middle of the octagon, using her lead leg and combinations to pick her opponents apart. She does also have a grappling background, having been an All-American wrestler in college, and will usually pursue ground and pound if she’s in top position. “The Shanimal” (yikes) doesn’t usually initiate grappling exchanges but has the cardio and experience to grapple if she needs to, remaining calm even in tough spots. Maverick is the second biggest favorite on the card at -575, making Young a +425 underdog. I side with the oddsmakers on this one, I expect Maverick to overwhelm Young and pick up a finish, similar to their first fight. I’ll take both under 2.5 rounds as well as Maverick by finish.

Picks: Maverick by Finish, Under 2.5 rounds

Darrick Minner vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Featherweight Bout

Darrick Minner: 26-13-0, 1 KO/TKO, 22 Sub.

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke: 38-10-0, 18 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.

This fight sees two excellent grapplers with different styles collide in the octagon. Minner has won 2 of his last 5 fights, with those coming over Charles Rosa (14-8-0) and TJ Laramie (12-5-0). Minner has averaged over 2 takedowns landed per fight as well as almost 3 submission attempts per fight in his UFC career, and is most comfortable on the mat. Training at Glory MMA, Minner is submission focused when he gets the fight to the floor, always trying to advance position and get ahold of his opponent’s neck. He has 22 career submission wins with 16 of those being chokes, 10 of those chokes being guillotines, which he’s willing to pursue at just about any time. On the feet, Minner usually uses a boxing style, throwing plenty of hooks to set up his grappling and takedowns. Minner won’t throw out a ton of punches on the ground or on the feet and is much more focused on finding a submission or getting to a better position. Nuerdanbieke has found victory in 4 of his last 5 outings, with his two UFC wins coming over Sean Soriano (14-9-0) and TJ Brown (16-9-0). Nuerdanbieke tends to come out of the gate pretty hot, getting right into the pocket and throwing big hooks. He’s constantly moving on the feet, often loading up and throwing single shots, but his volume increases as the fight continues. Training at China Top Team, Nuerdanbieke has a wrestling background and is averaging 3 takedowns landed per fight in his brief UFC tenure. Despite his willingness to brawl he’s more comfortable on the ground, seemingly always looking for angles to shoot in for a takedown. Nuerdanbieke doesn’t seem to chase submissions too hard but also won’t throw a ton of ground and pound, often just controlling his opponent for minutes at a time. He does have great top control and is very hard to get out from under, so he doesn’t have to push a crazy pace to win fights. Nuerdanbieke is the favorite at -200, with Minner a +170 underdog. I understand the odds here, but I disagree with them. Nuerdanbieke does have better wins and an advantage on the feet, but I don’t think he has the grappling advantage. Minner is much more active both off his back and on top, whereas Nuerdanbieke is a bit of a lay-and-pray guy. If this fight ends up on the ground, which I think it will, I think Minner can pull out a submission. I’ll take Minner moneyline and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Minner +170, Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

Grant Dawson vs. Mark O. Madsen

Lightweight Bout

Grant Dawson: 18-1-1, 4 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.

Mark O. Madsen: 12-0-0, 3 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Another excellent matchup of talented grapplers, this should be an entertaining fight. Dawson has never lost in the UFC, holding victories over Jared Gordon (19-5-0), Leonardo Santos (18-7-1), and Julian Erosa (28-10-0). Dawson is an excellent grappler and is most comfortable on the mat, often shooting early and usually gaining takedowns with apparent ease. He’s averaging nearly 4 takedowns landed per fight in his UFC career and has great control, especially on the back. He’s seemingly never resting on the ground, always throwing punches or pursuing a submission. Of his 12 career submissions, 10 of them are rear-naked chokes, so Dawson is incredibly dangerous if he can get his opponent’s neck. On the feet Dawson uses a boxing style, keeping his hands high and throwing every shot with power. Training at American Top Team, he has decent head movement and usually doesn’t get hit too much, usually fighting behind his jab and staying technical. He is willing to throw some flashier attacks though, with the occasional question mark kick or flying knee. Madsen is undefeated, with his last three UFC wins coming over Vince Pichel (14-3-0), Clay Guida (37-19-0), and Austin Hubbard (14-6-0). Madsen is a former Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler, winning a silver medal at the 2016 Olympic Games, and has a litany of amateur wrestling experience. In his short time in the UFC Madsen is averaging about 4 takedowns landed per fight, and given his background he usually secures his takedowns inside the clinch. Madsen has smothering top control and prefers ground and pound to submissions, and has the cardio to grapple for 15 minutes. Training at Fight Ready, Madsen has shown a surprising willingness to strike and often doesn’t seem to be in any rush to take the fight to the mat. On the feet, Madsen will throw leg kicks at range before darting into the pocket to throw big combinations. He’ll regularly dip his head and throw big overhands, and is willing to eat a shot to land one. He might be a little too willing to strike as he will almost always have a wrestling advantage, but he has shown that he has good hands and is yet to get damaged on the feet. Dawson is a -220 favorite with Madsen returning as a +180 underdog. This fight is closer than the odds suggest, as Dawson is more than willing to grapple and Madsen has quite the pedigree. I still don’t disagree with the oddsmakers though, I think Dawson is a more well-rounded fighter and is more active on the ground, and could be the first guy to put Madsen in tough spots when grappling. I’ll take Dawson by finish and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Dawson by Finish, Under 2.5 rounds

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Nate Maness

Bantamweight Bout

Tagir Ulanbekov: 13-2-0, 1 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Nate Maness: 14-2-0, 5 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Two rising prospects meet in this bout. Ulanbekov has won 4 of his last 5 outings, with his UFC wins coming over Allan Nascimento (19-6-0) and Bruno Silva (12-6-2). Ulanbekov is one of the many Dagestani fighters in the UFC, and like many of them, trains at Eagles MMA with Khabib Nurmagomedov. That alone should pretty much explain his fighting style, but if you couldn’t guess he has a sambo background. Ulanbekov has averaged over 3 takedowns landed per fight in his short UFC tenure, and is an excellent grappler. He is a tenacious wrestler and never accepts bad positions, always moving and looking to land ground and pound. Ulanbekov is efficient on the ground, not wasting energy or putting himself in dangerous spots. There’s not much to be said, he does exactly what you’d expect; get an early takedown then control his opponent while occasionally throwing ground and pound. Maness has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with his UFC victories coming over Tony Gravely (23-8-0), Luke Sanders (13-5-0), and Johnny Munoz (11-2-0). Maness is tall for bantamweight and uses it well, throwing plenty of long straights and head kicks at distance. Maness has a lightning-fast right hand and tends to land his biggest shots with it, especially his right straight. He has shown a great ability to recover, having taken big damage and coming back to win in multiple of his UFC fights. Training at Salvation MMA, Maness averages just over 1 takedown landed per fight and has solid wrestling, but tends to use it in a more sprawl-and-brawl style. Maness is comfortable in a technical striking match as well as a dirty brawl and has won Performance of the Night bonuses in 2 of his 3 UFC wins. Ulanbekov is the favorite in this one at -210, making Maness a +175 underdog. This is a tough look for Maness as he’s once again facing another Khabib-trained wrestler, having taken a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov (15-0-0) in his last fight. While that does make me want to believe he’ll be more prepared as I’m sure the Khabib’s game plan is unchanged, I have a feeling it won’t matter. Begrudgingly, I’m taking Ulanbekov moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Ulanbekov -210, Over 2.5 rounds

Chase Sherman vs. Josh Parisian

Heavyweight Bout

Chase Sherman: 16-10-0, 15 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Josh Parisian: 15-5-0, 11 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

A classic matchup of two big boy scrappers, I’d be shocked if this fight went to a decision. Sherman has won 1 of his last 5 fights and has wins over Ike Villanueva (18-14-0) and Jared Vanderaa (12-10-0). Sherman uses a boxing style on the feet, constantly moving and keeping his head off the center line. He has solid output for a heavyweight and can push a pretty crazy pace especially early, but does slow down as the fight goes on. Sherman throws plenty of leg kicks at distance and is more than willing to brawl, stepping into the pocket to let big combinations go. Given his brawling tendencies, Sherman can eat a shot and puts power in every punch he throws. Training at Jackson-Wink MMA, he can get flashy with his striking at times, slipping strikes and countering quickly, often throwing in combination. Sherman has never landed a takedown in the UFC and practically never initiates grappling exchanges, far preferring to keep the fight standing. Parisian has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with those wins coming over Alan Baudot (8-4-0), Roque Martinez (15-8-2), and Chad Johnson (6-4-0). Parisian is always moving on the feet, using a lot of feints and his jab to establish distance. He has a solid kicking game, particularly to the body, and has an absolute granite chin. Parisian will throw out plenty of front kicks and often dips his head to slip and counter with big shots. While I think Parisian is a bit too technical to call him a brawler, he is more than willing to get into brawls and exchange shots in the pocket. Training at Scorpion Fighting System, Parisian throws in relatively high volume for a heavyweight but does have that classic heavyweight cardio and can gas himself out chasing a finish. He is willing to grapple and has shown some solid takedown ability, and will pour down ground and pound if he secures top position. It seems Parisian mostly resorts to his wrestling when he’s losing the striking exchanges but is just as comfortable on the mat as he is standing up. Sherman is the favorite here at -130 with Parisian returning as a +110 underdog. Honestly, I’m a little surprised by the odds here when comparing their records and UFC tenures, but Sherman is quicker and a bit slipperier than Parisian. If this fight stays on the feet Sherman should be able to get it done with his advantage in speed and movement, but he’s in trouble if Parisian takes him down. Nonetheless, I’ll take Sherman by knockout and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Sherman by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

#13 Neil Magny vs. #14 Daniel Rodriguez

Welterweight Bout

Neil Magny: 26-10-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Daniel Rodriguez: 17-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

A matchup of two well-rounded veterans, this should be a great fight. Magny has won 3 of his last 5 fights and has wins over former UFC welterweight champions Robbie Lawler (29-16-0) and Johny Hendricks (18-8-0), as well as #6 ranked welterweight Geoff Neal (15-4-0). Magny is entering his 9th year in the promotion and his experience shows in the cage, as he’s seemingly comfortable everywhere. Magny is tall for the division and uses it well, staying at distance on the feet and picking his opponents apart with his punches. His best weapon is probably his cardio, Magny can and has gone 25 minutes and he always pushes a heavy pace, always touching up his opponents or working for takedowns. Training at Elevation Fight Team, Magny is excellent at using his length inside the clinch, often landing knees and elbows as well as scoring takedowns. Averaging over 2 takedowns landed per fight Magny’s easiest path to victory is to take it to the mat, which he usually succeeds in doing. Magny stays technical across the entire fight, never overexerting himself or putting himself in significant danger. Rodriguez has found victory in four of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over Mike Perry (14-8-0), Tim Means (32-14-1), and Kevin Lee (19-7-0). Rodriguez’s build is a bit deceptive for how he fights, using a Muay Thai style, although he does favor his hands over his kicks. Rodriguez is a great technical striker, fighting behind his jab and always pushing for a finish, but stays technical over 3 rounds. Training at Syndicate MMA, Rodriguez has great movement and footwork on the feet, attacking from different angles with a variety of strikes. “D-Rod” has some very fast kicks, usually throwing to the legs at the beginning and end combinations. He has also proven to possess serious toughness, exhibited in his incredible comeback against Dwight Grant (11-6-0) in one of my personal favorite one-round fights of all time. He’s unlikely to initiate grappling, but has solid takedown defense and is usually able to get back to his feet where he’s most comfortable. Magny is a slight favorite here at -120, with Rodriguez a +120 underdog. Picking a winner is super tough here, so I’ll start on the rounds. I like this fight to go over 2.5 rounds, Magny is super tough and I’d be surprised if he got finished on the feet, and I’d be equally surprised to see Magny take Rodriguez out on the ground. I think I have to go with Magny here, his ability to control his opponents and make them fight his fight should be enough, plus I think he will be able to take Rodriguez down and keep him there.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Magny -120

#3 Marina Rodriguez vs. #7 Amanda Lemos

Women’s Strawweight Bout

Marina Rodriguez: 16-1-2, 6 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Amanda Lemos: 12-2-1, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

This main event sees to exciting strikers square off in an important fight for the strawweight division. Rodriguez has won 3 of her last 5 fights with one draw, with her best wins coming over Amanda Ribas (11-2-0), Michelle Waterson (18-9-0), and Mackenzie Dern (11-2-0). Rodriguez is an excellent striker, using a technical Muay Thai style to batter her opponents. She carries great power in her hands for the weight class, often landing big shots with her right, and has a solid arsenal of kicks as well. Rodriguez can throw with both volume and power, averaging about 79 significant strikes in her last 5 fights. Training at Thai Brazil, she has great hand speed and is averaging 5 significant strikes landed per minute in her UFC tenure. Rodriguez never throws single strikes, usually blitzing forward and throwing in combination. Rodriguez rarely initiates grappling exchanges but has shown solid takedown defense and has a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. She possesses great footwork and is always moving, which also makes her much harder to take down. Lemos has won 4 of her last 5 fights, with her best wins coming over Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-10-0), Livinha Souza (14-4-0), and Mizuki Inoue (14-6-0). Lemos is a knockout artist, having 8 first-round finishes in her career with 3 of those coming in the UFC. She has crazy power for the division in both hands and has knocked people out with her jab. Lemos won’t push a crazy pace on the feet, making up for volume with power and accuracy, landing at a 57% accuracy rate. Training at Marajo Brothers Team, Lemos is at her best when she’s controlling the center of the octagon and pressuring her opponent, throwing plenty of devastating front kicks and leg kicks when at distance. She averages about 1 takedown landed per fight in the UFC and is willing to grapple, and has shown a slick submission game, particularly her guillotine. If she does end up in top position, she’ll often rain down ground and pound until securing a finish. Rodriguez is the favorite in this one at -210, making Lemos a +175 underdog. As usual, I have to admit my bias, I love watching Rodriguez fight and hold a grudge against Lemos for winning what I think was a bad decision against Angela Hill (14-12-0). Besides that though, I think Rodriguez is a much more polished striker and pushes a much faster pace, and this could easily be the first time Lemos ever has to go 5 rounds. I’ll take Rodriguez moneyline and over 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Rodriguez -210, Over 4.5 rounds.