UFC 281

Prelims

Andre Petroski vs. Wellington Turman

Middleweight Bout

Andre Petroski: 8-2-0, 4 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Wellington Turman: 18-5-0, 4 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

The first fight of the prelims sees two exciting grapplers faceoff. Petroski has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his UFC victories coming over Micheal Gillmore (6-5-0), Hu Yaozong (3-3-0), and Nick Maximov (8-2-0). Petroski has a background in collegiate wrestling, and it shows, as, in 3 UFC fights, he’s averaging four takedowns landed as well as four submission attempts. Petroski has excellent takedowns and can land them in open space, often timing double legs as his opponent throws strikes. On the ground, Petroski transitions quickly and is always pursuing the finish, whether it’s a submission or ground and pound. Training at Renzo Gracie Philly, he prefers chokes when attempting a submission and won both of his last two fights via choke. Petroski is still developing on the feet, as he tends to swing wildly and load up on every shot. He heavily favors his left hand and throws every punch with maximum power, always coming forward and throwing bombs. Turman has also won 3 of his last five outings, with wins over Misha Cirkunov (15-9-0), Markus Perez (12-6-0), and my dad, Sam Alvey (33-18-1). Turman has solid wrestling and is averaging about two takedowns landed per fight. However, he is much more skilled with his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, holding a blackbelt and averaging about one submission attempt per fight. Turman is willing to strike but often won’t waste much time in attempting a takedown, clinching up, and going to work from there. He won’t often shoot from out in the open and tends to pursue trips and tosses, but he is tenacious and will not give up on takedowns. When he gets it to the mat, he seems just as content to throw ground and pound as pursue submissions and can do both well. With a background in Muay Thai, Turman has some decent kicks and is willing to throw out spinning attacks, both with his kicks and hands. Training at Teixeira MMA, he won’t put out crazy volume on the feet but is constantly pressuring forward, often blitzing into range to throw short combinations. Petroski is the favorite at -210, with Turman returning as a +175 underdog. While I don’t think the skill gap is wide, and Turman holds a higher BJJ belt, I still agree with the oddsmakers. Petroski pushes a much more frantic pace and is considerably more aggressive than Turman, which I think will be enough for him to pick up a finish. I’m going to take Petroski by finish and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Petroski by Finish, Under 2.5 rounds

#12 Erin Blanchfield vs. #15 Molly McCann

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Erin Blanchfield: 9-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Molly McCann: 13-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A matchup of two quickly rising flyweights, this matchup has big implications for the division. Blanchfield has won all of her last five outings, with her UFC wins coming over Sarah Alpar (9-6-0), Miranda Maverick (13-4-0), and JJ Aldrich (11-5-0). Blanchfield is a well-rounded fighter, but her easiest path to victory is her grappling. Having started training Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu at the age of 7, she possesses a black belt and is visibly experienced and highly comfortable on the ground. She’s tough to shake off, has great control, and often seems one step ahead of her opponent on the ground. Training at Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, Blanchfield has excellent takedowns and is averaging four takedowns landed per fight in her short UFC tenure. She is constantly advancing position when she does get it to the floor. On the feet, she works behind her jab and usually throws in combination. She has a solid arsenal of kicks and throws all of them quickly, and she has some especially dangerous high kicks. McCann has won 3 of her last five fights, with her most recent victories coming over Hannah Goldy (6-3-0), Luana Carolina (8-3-0), and Ji Yeon Kim (9-6-2). McCann is the textbook definition of a brawler, never staying at distance and always getting inside the pocket to let big combinations fly. McCann throws everything with power and rarely throws single shots, mixing up her attack well between the head and body. Training at Next Generation UK, she’s always pressing forward and is more than willing to eat a shot to land one, usually resulting in wars on the feet. McCann does average nearly two takedowns landed per fight and is willing to grapple, holding a purple belt in BJJ. If she takes the fight to the mat, she’s much more likely to pursue ground and pound than a submission, shown in her record. McCann quickly became one of the most exciting flyweights, often throwing spinning attacks like the brutal spinning elbow she landed on Luana Carolina. Blanchfield is a sizeable favorite at -400, with McCann a +310 underdog. It’s tough to pick against Molly McCann, but if Blanchfield can get this fight to the mat, I think it’s a done deal. Don’t get me wrong, McCann is basically living proof of “a puncher’s chance” and is never truly out of a fight, but Blanchfield is such a high-level grappler I think she’ll ultimately drown her on the mat. I’ll take Blanchfield moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Blanchfield -400, Over 2.5 rounds

#7 Dominick Reyes vs. #12 Ryan Spann

Light Heavyweight Bout

Dominick Reyes: 12-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Ryan Spann: 20-7-0, 5 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.

I would be utterly shocked to see this fight go to the judges, let alone a third round, and I can’t wait for it. Reyes has won 2 of his last 5 fights, with his best wins coming over former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman (15-6-0), #2 ranked middleweight Jared Cannonier (15-6-0), and #10 ranked light heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (18-7-0). Reyes is a lengthy striker who is at his most dangerous in the first round, with all of his career finishes coming in round one. Training at Cage Combat Academy, he usually opens up with plenty of heavy kicks, both high and low, and picks his shots when he does let his hands go. Considering how many first-round finishes he has, he doesn’t push a crazy pace, and with all of his finish losses coming in the second round or later, he seems to fade as the fight continues. Reyes has excellent takedown defense, having defended 80% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC, and he usually gets off his back quickly if he is taken to the mat. He does have decent wrestling in his back pocket but tends to only resort to it when he’s hurt or losing and has only landed two takedowns in his UFC career. Spann has found victory in three of his last five outings and has wins over Misha Cirkunov (15-9-0), Ion Cutelaba (16-8-1), and Devin Clark (13-7-0). Like his opponent, Spann is incredibly dangerous in the first round, with 15 of his 17 career finishes coming in the first round. All his knockouts came in the first round, with ten of his twelve submissions also coming in the first round, so he comes out guns blazing every fight. Spann is dangerous on top and on his back, especially if he can get ahold of his opponent’s neck, with all of his submission wins coming via some form of choke, with nine of those being guillotines. On the feet, Spann throws everything with fight-ending intentions and possesses one-shot knockout power, especially in his right hand. Training at Fortis MMA, Spann fights with a kill-or-be-killed mentality on the feet and on the ground, with 5 of his seven losses coming via finish and only three of his wins coming via decision. Reyes is a -220 favorite, with Spann a +180 underdog. Before I even start thinking about a winner, this is probably the easiest under 2.5 rounds pick of all time, given how both are prolific first-round finishers and rarely win decisions. With the skid Reyes has been on, I’m surprised he’s as big of a favorite as he is, but it makes some sense. Reyes is much more technical and patient on the feet and is very hard to take down, potentially presenting problems for Spann. I’m going to take Reyes to bounce back and pick up a finish.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Reyes by Finish

Brad Riddell vs. Renato Moicano

Lightweight Bout

Brad Riddell: 10-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Renato Moicano: 16-5-1, 0 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

This fight is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, and it should be fun. Riddell comes into this fight with three wins in his last five fights and has wins over Drew Dober (25-11-0), Jamie Mullarkey (15-5-0), and Alex Da Silva (21-4-0). Riddell is a credentialed kickboxer with a pro record of 59-10 and fought in promotions such as Glory and ONE. Riddell is an excellent Muay Thai striker, possessing fast hands and even quicker kicks. He’s dangerous both at range and in the pocket but does his best work inside a phone booth where he can land big combinations. Training at City Kickboxing, Riddell does an excellent job of varying his strikes, attacking the head, body, and legs evenly. He has shown solid cardio and carries his speed and power across all 15 minutes, making him dangerous at any time. Despite his background, Riddell has solid grappling credentials, holding a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fight in his UFC tenure. It seems he often resorts to his grappling when things aren’t going his way on the feet, but he is willing to work for takedowns along the fence to get on top and land ground and pound. Moicano has similarly won three of his last five fights and has wins over #7 ranked featherweight Calvin Kattar (23-7-0), Alexander Hernandez (13-5-0), and Cub Swanson (28-13-0). Moicano is more well-rounded than his record shows, as he holds a black belt in BJJ but also a black belt in Muay Thai. In his 13 UFC fights, only 4 of them have gone the distance, but he has shown he has the cardio to go a full 25 minutes. Moicano often won’t waste too much time before shooting in for a takedown, usually securing them quickly and immediately advancing position on the ground. Moicano is dangerous on top but especially dangerous if he takes his opponent’s back, with all nine of his career submissions coming via rear-naked choke. He’s aggressive on the ground, always trying to move to a better position, but he is also intelligent and rarely puts himself in danger. On the feet, Moicano has solid speed and power in his hands and loves to throw uppercuts and elbows when in close. Training at American Top Team, Moicano will often pick his shots, waiting for openings to land combinations or attempt a takedown. Moicano is the slight favorite in this fight at -125, making Riddell a +105 favorite. Like most striker vs. grappler matchups, this will be a question of who does their specialty better. If it stays on the feet, Riddell should be able to find a win, but if it goes to the ground, Moicano should be able to secure a choke. It’s a tough choice, but coming off that quick submission loss in his last fight, there might now be a bit of a playbook for beating Riddell, and Moicano is an incredibly dangerous submission artist. I’ll take Moicano by submission and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Moicano by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

#12 Dan Hooker vs. Claudio Puelles

Lightweight Bout

Dan Hooker: 21-12-0, 10 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Claudio Puelles: 13-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Yet another striker vs. grappler matchup is found in the first fight of the main card, and it’s a good one. Hooker has won one of his last 5 bouts and holds wins over #5 ranked welterweight Gilbert Burns (20-5-0), Al Iaquinta (14-7-1), and Jim Miller (35-16-0). Hooker is an excellent striker with a kickboxing background, holding a professional kickboxing record of 13-1. Hooker is at his best when he’s controlling the center of the cage and pressuring forward, using his hands and patented knees to damage his opponents. Hooker is a devastating clinch striker, possessing some of the most brutal knees ever seen in the UFC and great dirty boxing. Training at City Kickboxing, Hooker varies his strikes very well, attacking the head and body evenly and throwing from different angles. Hooker has solid takedown defense and is willing to grapple, averaging just under one takedown landed per fight and holding a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Hooker uses his skills in the clinch to get in on takedowns and is willing to work along the cage to secure takedowns, focusing on ground and pound once he does take the fight to the mat. He has an underrated submission game and won’t often pursue them, seemingly finding a lot of them defensively, like pulling guillotines while defending a takedown. Puelles has found victory in all of his last five outings, with wins over Clay Guida (37-19-0), Chris Gruetzemacher (15-5-0), and Jordan Leavitt (10-2-0). Puelles has a purple belt in Luta Livre, a background we don’t see many fighters having these days. Puelles averages about three takedowns landed per fight and has shown he doesn’t have the most refined wrestling but is committed to getting the fight to the mat and will work hard to do so. Of his seven career submission wins, 4 of them are kneebars, making him even more of a unique grappler and incredibly dangerous off his back. He has excellent scrambles and some creative takedown defense and won’t stay on his back long if he’s taken down, usually getting up quickly or threatening a submission. Training at Sanford MMA, he’s a patient grappler and won’t rush anything, generally staying in safe positions and not throwing much ground and pound. On the feet, Puelles has a background in Muay Thai and tends to throw a lot of single shots and naked kicks. He will be aggressive in the standup but often doesn’t waste much time before clinching up or shooting for a takedown. Hooker is the favorite here at -155, with Puelles a +130 underdog. Despite the skid Hooker has been on, I still have to pick him in this one. He pushes a much faster pace than Puelles and has proven he has the takedown defense to keep the fighting standing and, honestly, should have the grappling prowess to stay out of danger on the mat. Hooker’s aggression should be enough to secure him the win. I’ll take Hooker by finish and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Hooker by Finish, Under 2.5 rounds

#12 Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez

Bantamweight Bout

Frankie Edgar: 23-10-1, 6 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Chris Gutierrez: 18-3-2, 8 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

This fight sees one fighter on the rise and one on his way out. Edgar is a former UFC lightweight champion and has won 1 of his last 5 outings, and he has wins over former UFC champions BJ Penn (16-14-2), Sean Sherk (36-4-1), and Charles Oliveira (33-9-0). Edgar is one of the most respected fighters of all time and is a very well-rounded fighter, but he is an exceptionally skilled grappler. Averaging over two takedowns landed per fight, Edgar has a background in collegiate wrestling and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is incredibly dangerous if he can get top position. Training at Ricardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu, Edgar has excellent takedowns that he can land in open space, mixing them with his striking and never rushing to take the fight to the ground. On the feet, Edgar is in perpetual motion, never staying in one spot for more than a few seconds, making him very hard to hit (yes, I know he’s been knocked out twice in a row, but I don’t care). He has excellent fight IQ and rarely throws single shots, always looking for openings before entering the pocket to unleash quick combinations. Edgar has gone five rounds numerous times in his career, so he can easily go a full 15 minutes if he has to. Gutierrez has won 4 of his last five fights with one draw, with his best wins coming over Batgerel Danaa (12-4-0), Vince Morales (11-6-0), and Andre Ewell (18-9-0). Gutierrez is a shifty striker who has proven very hard to hit through his use of movement and footwork. Gutierrez has powerful kicks and excellent hand speed, often throwing plenty of leg kicks before moving in to let his hands go. Averaging about 60 significant strikes landed per fight in the UFC, Gutierrez puts out decent volume while always remaining technical and fighting behind his jab. Gutierrez tends to float around the outside, never favoring one particular weapon and constantly switching stances. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, he won’t often initiate grappling exchanges but has shown some solid takedown defense, having defended 73% of takedowns attempted on him. He’s also shown he has good clinch work and holds a purple belt in BJJ, so he can grapple if he needs to. Gutierrez is the favorite at -230, with Edgar a +190 underdog. This is an exciting matchup; both guys have similar styles on the feet and are hard to hit, so it could end up a technical kickboxing match. As sad as it makes me, I have to go against Edgar here; I think Gutierrez is just too fast and slick for him, but I think it’ll still be relatively close and a good way for a legend to ride off into the sunset. I’m taking Gutierrez moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Gutierrez -230, Over 2.5 rounds

#2 Dustin Poirier vs. #5 Michael Chandler

Lightweight Bout

Dustin Poirier: 28-7-0, 15 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Michael Chandler: 23-7-0, 11 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

This is being called the people’s main event, and I find that to be accurate. Poirier has won 3 of his last five fights and has wins over former UFC champions Conor McGregor (22-6-0), Max Holloway (23-7-0), and Eddie Alvarez (30-8-0). Poirier has been in the UFC for 12 years and is well-known as one of the best boxers in the sport, having power and speed in both hands. He can also push a serious pace, averaging 94 significant strikes landed in his last five wins. Training at American Top Team, he’s one of the more well-rounded fighters in the division, averaging over one takedown landed per fight and one submission attempt. While he is entirely willing to get into a standup war and has numerous times, he does mix it up and is willing to shoot for a takedown early on, making use of his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s exceptionally well experienced and seemingly has fought everyone the featherweight and lightweight divisions have to offer, and he can finish a fight from anywhere. Chandler has won 3 of his last five bouts and has wins over former UFC lightweight champions Benson Henderson (29-11-0) and Eddie Alvarez (30-8-0) and current Bellator lightweight champion Patricky Freire (24-10-0). Chandler is a former three-time Bellator lightweight champion who entered the UFC in 2021 after a decade in Scott Coker’s promotion, so despite being a UFC newcomer, he’s by no means a rookie. Like his opponent, he’s exceptionally well-rounded and comfortable anywhere the fight goes. Chandler is well known for his collegiate wrestling pedigree, averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fight in the UFC and over one submission attempt per fight. Chandler can finish on top with ground and pound or a submission, especially if he gets ahold of his opponent’s neck, with all of his career submissions coming via some form of choke. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Chandler is just as dangerous on the feet as he is on the ground, having excellent power in his hands and a great chin. He’s a true wildcard, his fights can end in the first 30 seconds or end up a 15-minute war, but one way or another, his fights are always entertaining. Poirier is the favorite in this fight at -230, with Chandler a +190 underdog. Both guys are very similar and have similar career paths, making it extremely hard to pick a winner (or the rounds, for that matter). I guess I just have to go with my Bias and take Poirier; he’s got better striking and is a good enough grappler to keep up with Chandler on the ground. In terms of rounds, this could be a war, or someone could go to sleep early, so it isn’t very good to try and predict. I’ll take over 2.5 rounds; I’m hoping it’s an all-out brawl for three rounds.

Picks: Poirier -230, Over 2.5 rounds

(C) Carla Esparza vs. #2 Zhang Weili

Women’s Strawweight Title Bout

Carla Esparza: 20-6-0, 4 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Zhang Weili: 22-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

A familiar spot for both fighters, we’ll see two top-level fighters face off for the belt. Esparza has won all of her last five fights and has wins over current #3 strawweight Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2), #6 strawweight Yan Xiaonan (13-3-0), and #10 strawweight Michelle Waterson (18-9-0). Esparza has been one of the best wrestlers in the division for a long time, and it’s always her easiest path to victory. Averaging over three takedowns a fight, Esparza is effective everywhere, able to land takedowns in the clinch or open space. Training at Team Oyama, when on the ground, Esparza has excellent top control and ground and pound, often controlling her opponents for entire fights. Esparza usually looks for takedowns early and avoids striking exchanges. Still, her constant pursuit of grappling exchanges makes her a bit more unpredictable on the feet, as her opponents always anticipate the takedown. Esparza doesn’t have crazy power in her hands and is far more likely to put you away with volume than strength, but surprisingly only has two finishes in her UFC career. Weili has found victory in three of her last five outings and has wins over former UFC champions Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-5-0) and Jessica Andrade (23-9-0), as well as #8 ranked strawweight Tecia Torres (13-6-0). Weili pushes a serious pace on both the feet and the ground and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. Weili might be the most powerful puncher in the division, made even more dangerous by her accuracy and ability to stay technical while still throwing bombs. Training at Fight Ready, Weili varies her strikes well, attacking both the head and body and does a great job of mixing kicks into combinations. She is willing to grapple, averaging over two takedowns landed per fight, and will immediately start punching away if she gets on top of her opponent. Like she does on the feet, Weili always looks for the finish on the mat, transitioning quickly and throwing devastating ground and pound. She has a purple belt in BJJ and a victory via armbar in the UFC, so she has submission ability but is more likely to try to drive her opponent’s head through the canvas. In a rare case of a champion being the underdog, Weili is the favorite at -340 and Esparza the underdog at +270, making her the biggest underdog of the main card and second biggest on the whole card. This shouldn’t surprise anyone; while Esparza is a great fighter, Weili is much stronger, faster, and more aggressive. Quite frankly, I think Weili should run through her and fast. I’m taking Weili by finish and under 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Weili by Finish, Under 4.5 rounds

(C) Israel Adesanya vs. #4 Alex Pereira

Middleweight Title Bout

Israel Adesanya: 23-1-0, 15 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Alex Pereira: 6-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

There’s not much I can say about this fight that hasn’t already been said; it should be excellent. Adesanya has found victory in 4 of his last five outings and has wins over former UFC middleweight champions Anderson Silva (34-11-0) and Robert Whittaker (25-6-0), as well as #3 ranked middleweight Marvin Vettori (18-6-1). Adesanya is often considered the best striker in MMA for a good reason, as he has proven to be virtually unstoppable on the feet. Although some of his more recent fights have had a slower pace, he’s still averaging about 85 significant strikes landed in his last five fights and does throw with decent volume. He’s incredibly elusive on the feet and rarely takes significant damage, always moving and keeping his head off the centerline. Training at City Kickboxing, Adesanya has moved away from the knockout focus as of late and will often float around the outside, touching his opponent up with punches and kicks. He has an excellent variety of kicks and does a great job of varying his attacks, making it very hard to tell what he’ll throw next and where. Pereira has won all of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Andreas Michailidis (13-6-0), Bruno Silva (22-8-0), and #7 ranked middleweight Sean Strickland (25-4-0). If you somehow didn’t know, Pereira has already beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, once by brutal knockout, which is why he’s been rocketed to the top of the division. Pereira is a former Glory Kickboxing middleweight and light heavyweight champion and holds a pro kickboxing record of 40-7. Pereira is notorious for having the most destructive left hook in combat sports and loves letting it fly. To back up his heavy hands, he has just as heavy kicks, which he’ll often use to find his range before getting into the pocket to throw big hooks and devastating knees. He’s comfortable on the outside as well as controlling the middle, but is most dangerous when he takes the center and cuts off his opponent. Training at Teixeira MMA, Pereira doesn’t move a ton on the feet and sometimes stands straight in front of his opponent, waiting for them to throw something so he can fire back. His takedown defense has shown to be decent, but he also can get back to his feet if he is taken down. Adesanya is the favorite here at -220, making Pereira a +180 underdog. I know Pereira is supposed to be the guy to dethrone Adesanya, but we already went through this once with Paulo Costa, and we saw how that turned out. I think Pereira will definitely push Adesanya harder than he has been recently, and it’ll be an entertaining fight. Still, Pereira’s lack of movement hurts him since Adesanya is so quick and mobile. I’m going to take Adesanya moneyline, but I really have no clue about the rounds. It’s hard to see this fight going to a decision for some reason, so I’ll take under 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Adesanya -220, Under 4.5 rounds