UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac

Prelims

Vince Morales vs. Miles Johns

Bantamweight Bout

Vince Morales: 11-6-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Miles Johns: 12-2-0, 4 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

This fight sees two exciting strikers face off. Morales has won 3 of his last five outings and has wins over Louis Smolka (17-9-0), Drako Rodriguez (7-4-0), and Aiemann Zahabi (9-2-0). Morales is constantly moving on the feet and is at his most dangerous early, with five of his eight career finishes coming in the first round. Morales usually throws in combination and puts out good volume, with his best weapon being his right overhand. Training at Syndicate MMA, Morales has good footwork and moves in and out of the pocket well and is at his best when he’s controlling the center of the octagon and pressuring forwards. He’s incredibly tough and can survive through adversity, and he seems to need to get into the pocket to do his best work, so he’s more than willing to eat a shot to land one. Morales has excellent leg kicks and mixes up his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly. Morales has only landed a single takedown in his UFC tenure and will rarely initiate grappling, but he does tend to absorb a lot of strikes, on average getting hit more times per minute than he lands. Johns has found victory in four of his last 5 bouts, with his most notable victories coming over Adrian Yanez (15-3-0), Anderson Dos Santos (21-9-0), and Kevin Natividad (9-3-0). Johns is an excellent boxer with serious power in both hands, usually staying behind his jab before throwing bombs. Johns makes up for a lack of volume with power and accuracy, often throwing big looping shots with a ton of power, always pursuing a finish. Johns has excellent striking defense and is often hard to hit, with just 31% of significant strikes attempted on him landing. Training at Fortis MMA, Johns has a collegiate wrestling background and solid grappling but favors using it defensively, having landed just four takedowns in his UFC career but holding a takedown defense percentage of 92%. Johns has fantastic movement and is always feinting, and does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket without taking damage. Johns has power moving both forward and backward and carries power in his punches and kicks across an entire fight, making him dangerous at all times. Johns is a slight favorite in this fight at -140, with Morales a +120 underdog. The similar records make these odds so close because I don’t think this fight is that close. Morales gets hit a lot, and Johns rarely takes significant damage, and Johns is quicker and stronger than Morales, so I’d say this fight is pretty cut and dry. I’ll take Johns by finish and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Johns by Finish, Under 2.5 rounds

#8 Jennifer Maia vs. #15 Maryna Moroz

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Jennifer Maia: 19-9-1, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Maryna Moroz: 11-3-0, 1 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Two extremely well-rounded fighters collide in this fight. Jennifer Maia has won 2 of her last five fights, scoring solid victories over Jessica Eye (15-10-0), Joanne Wood (15-7-0), and Roxanne Modafferi (25-20-0). Despite having a black belt in Muay Thai, Maia primarily uses her boxing on the feet, but she isn’t always technical and tends to throw more looping shots. She has some decent kicking ability but won’t throw kicks too often, usually throwing a few leg kicks and occasionally head kicks. Training at the legendary Chute Boxe, Maia is an excellent grappler and has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Maia will go for both ground and pound and submissions, with a handful of armbars on her record. A former Invicta women’s flyweight champ, Maia also has some professional boxing experience, going 3-0 in her career. Maia hasn’t had a finish loss in nearly a decade and has proven to be challenging to put away despite her aggression, averaging about 54 significant strikes landed per fight in the UFC. Moroz has won 3 of her last five bouts and has wins over Joanne Wood (15-7-0), Sabina Mazo (9-3-0), and Mayra Bueno Silva (7-2-1). Moroz has the rank of Master of Sport in both boxing and kickboxing in her home country of Ukraine and has been boxing most of her life. Despite this, Moroz has been more likely to take the fight to the mat lately, using dominant top control to land ground and pound and pursue submissions. Moroz often secures her takedowns in the clinch, using plenty of knees and other strikes to open her opponent up and drag them to the mat. Moroz has five takedowns in her last three fights, with no takedowns in the UFC before this, so she’s favoring her grappling more and improving. Moroz uses a Muay Thai-like style on the feet, keeping her hands high and moving constantly. Training at American Top Team, she’ll often use her striking to get her opponent on the outside of the cage, where she can then get them in the clinch on the fence and work from there. Moroz gets the nod here as the favorite at -175, with Maia returning as a +150 underdog. Both fighters have very similar skill sets and are well-rounded, but Maia certainly has the better pedigree on the ground. With Moroz pushing her grappling lately, I think that could be her undoing, as Maia is an excellent grappler both on top and off her back. If Moroz kept it standing, I think she could overwhelm Maia, but considering how she’s fought lately, I expect her to shoot in on Maia and end up in a tough position. I’ll take Maia by decision as well as over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Maia by Decision, Over 2.5 rounds

Main Card

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Danny Roberts

Welterweight Bout

Jack Della Maddalena: 12-2-0, 10 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Danny Roberts: 18-6-0, 8 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

A matchup of two excellent boxers, this one won’t last long. Della Maddalena hasn’t lost a fight in 6 years, with his UFC victories coming over Pete Rodriguez (5-1-0) and Ramazan Emeev (20-6-0). Della Maddalena has bricks for hands, carries power whether he’s going backward or forwards, and is always dangerous. Della Maddalena has beautiful technical boxing and sets everything up with his jab, often throwing combinations that are well over five punches. Training at Scrappy MMA, he has awe-inspiring striking numbers, landing nearly double the number of significant strikes he absorbs per minute. Della Maddalena is incredibly hard to hit, with just 35% of significant strikes attempted on him landing. He’s unlikely to initiate grappling but has shown an impressive ability to get off the ground, getting out of some seriously deep chokes to come back and find the finish. Della Maddalena has only seen the third round twice in his career, with only a single fight going to a decision. Roberts has won 2 out of his last five fights, with his most impressive wins being over Ramazan Emeev (20-5-0), Zelim Imadaev (8-3-0), and Nathan Coy (15-7-0). Roberts has been in the UFC since 2015, so he’s by no means a newcomer. With a background in boxing, Roberts has a patient, technical style on the feet, definite knockout power in his hands, and a decent arsenal of kicks. One of his best qualities is his movement; Roberts has good footwork and does an excellent job of circling and moving to stay out of the clinch and in the middle of the cage. Roberts has some decent wrestling, landing a takedown in both of his last two wins, but he only pursues grappling when he’s struggling on the feet. With a takedown defense percentage of 57%, “Hot Chocolate” does an excellent job of keeping the fight where he’s most comfortable. Training at Sanford MMA, Roberts doesn’t push much of a pace on the feet and hasn’t landed more than 36 significant strikes in his last five fights. Della Maddalena is the biggest favorite on the card at -550, with Roberts a +400 underdog. I understand why the odds are the way they are; Della Maddalena pushes a crazy pace on the feet, whereas Roberts is much more relaxed and patient. I expect Della Maddalena to storm him and do what he’s been doing, land a ton early and knock his opponent out. I’m taking Della Maddalena by knockout as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Della Maddalena by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Andre Fialho vs. Muslim Salikhov

Welterweight Bout

Andre Fialho: 16-5-0, 13 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Muslim Salikhov: 18-3-0, 12 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Yet another striker vs. striker matchup, this main card continues to excite. Fialho has won three of his last 5 bouts, with his UFC victories coming over Miguel Baeza (10-3-0) and Cameron VanCamp (15-7-1). Fialho may be a relative newcomer to the UFC but is by no means a rookie and has fought in Bellator, PFL, and LFA before joining the UFC. Fialho has a boxing background and devastating power in his hands, throwing with serious explosivity, and is dangerous at all times. Fialho makes up for a lack of volume with power and accuracy, never throwing looping shots and throwing all his punches tight and straight. Training at Sanford MMA, he tends to pressure his opponent immediately and will usually be moving forward, and does a great job of cutting off the cage. While he tends to hang in the pocket and get into brawls, Fialho always stays technical and is willing to eat a shot to land one. Fialho is at his most dangerous early on, with eleven of his 13 career knockouts coming in the first round. Salikhov has found victory in four of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over Franciso Trinaldo (28-9-0), Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0), and Nordine Taleb (15-7-0). Salikhov holds the rank of Master of Sport in Wushu Sanda (Chinese kickboxing) and a pro kickboxing record of 185-13 with 76 wins by knockout. If it wasn’t obvious, Salikhov is an incredibly dangerous striker, with power in his punches and kicks and great head movement. Salikhov has an impressive arsenal of kicks, particularly his array of spinning attacks that he loves to throw. Training at Berkut FC, Salikhov is also very defensively sound, with just 34% of significant strikes attempted on him landing. Salikhov is willing to grapple and averages over one takedown landed per fight in the UFC, but he hasn’t won a fight by submission in 5 years and is far more likely to pursue ground and pound when in top position. This is a close fight, and the bookmakers agree, with Salikhov sitting at -115 and Fialho at -105. I’ll take under 2.5 rounds, I expect this to be a pretty high-paced striking affair, so I’d be surprised to see it go the distance. I don’t think there’s an objective way of predicting a winner here, so I’ll go with my gut and take Salikhov. He has so much striking experience and a much more diverse attack on the feet than Fialho, but they have similar power and speed, so it could be a close one.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Salikhov -115

Chase Sherman vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Heavyweight Bout

Chase Sherman: 16-10-0, 15 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta: 8-0-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

I’m beginning to feel like a broken record; in this bout, we see yet another striker vs. striker matchup and yet another fight I’d be shocked to see the judges involved in. Sherman has won 1 of his last 5 fights and has wins over Ike Villanueva (18-14-0) and Jared Vanderaa (12-10-0). Sherman uses a boxing style on the feet, constantly moving and keeping his head off the center line. He has solid output for a heavyweight and can push a pretty crazy pace, especially early, but he does slow down as the fight continues. Sherman throws plenty of leg kicks at distance and is more than willing to brawl, stepping into the pocket to let big combinations go. Given his brawling tendencies, Sherman can eat a shot and puts power in every punch he throws. Training at Jackson-Wink MMA, he can get flashy with his striking, slipping strikes and countering quickly, often throwing in combination. Sherman has never landed a takedown in the UFC and practically never initiates grappling exchanges, far preferring to keep the fight standing. Acosta is undefeated, with his first UFC fight being a win over Jared Vanderaa (12-10-0). His last bout before entering the UFC was an LFA heavyweight title victory over Thomas Petersen (6-1-0). Acosta is a powerful striker, utilizing a boxing style, and has quick hands for a heavyweight. His best weapon is his right hand, regularly throwing wide hooks and devastating overhands. Although he favors his right, Acosta has power in both hands and is constantly seeking a finish. Training at UKF Gym, Acosta seems to be most at home in a brawl, working inside the pocket and throwing knees and elbows in the clinch. When he lets his hands go, he’s shown he can throw long, technical combinations but will often throw single shots. While he won’t usually initiate grappling exchanges, he has demonstrated a solid ability to get back to his feet. When Acosta is on top, he will often throw plenty of elbows and does a great job of not putting himself in danger to land ground and pound. Acosta is the favorite in this one at -220, with Sherman returning a +180 underdog. Yet another fight where the rounds are easier to pick than the winner, this will easily go under 2.5 rounds. I think Sherman’s record makes him look worse than he is, Acosta is willing to brawl, and Sherman is great at drawing people into them. Still, I like Acosta here; he’s a bit more technically skilled and probably hungrier too.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Cortes-Acosta -220

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Ion Cutelaba

Light Heavyweight Bout

Kennedy Nzechukwu: 10-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Ion Cutelaba: 16-8-1, 12 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

You guessed it; two strikers face off in this matchup. Nzechukwu has found victory in three of his last 5 outings, with wins over Karl Roberson (9-6-0), Danilo Marques (11-4-0), and Carlos Ulberg (8-1-0). Nzechukwu has serious power in both hands and loves to hang in the pocket and throw heavy hooks. Nzechukwu is tied for the tallest active fighter in the division and seemingly always has a significant reach advantage. He rarely stays at distance, preferring to use his boxing in the pocket. With five of his seven career finishes coming in round 2 or later, Nzechukwu can be a bit of a slow starter but turns it up as the fight continues. Training at Fortis MMA, Nzechukwu is exceptionally durable and has gotten himself out of some very tough spots, for instance, surviving a whole round with Danilo Marques on his back. He showed improved grappling in his most recent fight, landing five takedowns and showing excellent top pressure. His size makes him very hard to shake off but also hard to take down, with his takedown defense percentage sitting at 81%. Cutelaba has found victory in 1 of his last five fights, along with a draw, and has wins over Devin Clark (13-7-0) and Khalil Rountree (11-5-0). Famous for his antics at weigh-ins, Cutelaba has earned a reputation as a wild fighter but has focused on his wrestling in recent fights. He’s landed 21 takedowns in just his last four fights and does a great job timing his shots in open space. Cutelaba rarely pursues submissions, usually preferring to smash his opponent with devastating ground and pound (his two submission wins are both by omoplata somehow). On the feet, “The Hulk” has one-punch knockout power in his hands and is always pursuing a finish, never looking to touch up his opponent. Training at CSA Moldova, Cutelaba averages about five strikes landed per minute and never stops pressuring his opponent. Of his twelve knockouts, eleven came in the first round, showing Cutelaba is obviously at his most dangerous early on. Also, 7 of his 13 UFC fights ended in the first round, so he comes out guns blazing with a kill-or-be-killed attitude every single fight. Nzechukwu is the favorite here at -180, with Cutelaba the +155 underdog. Now, this is a bit of a weird one; I fully expect Nzechukwu to win this fight, and he definitely should, but his tendency to start slow hurts him significantly in a fight against a guy who comes out super fast. I will take Nzechukwu moneyline, but under 2.5 rounds is the safer pick.

Picks: Nzechukwu -180, Under 2.5 rounds

#7 Derrick Lewis vs. #12 Serghei Spivac

Heavyweight Bout

Derrick Lewis: 26-10-0, 21 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Serghei Spivac: 15-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

A classic matchup of striker vs. grappler, this is yet another fight I’d be shocked to see go to the judges. Lewis, the record holder for most UFC heavyweight knockouts with 13, comes into this fight having won two of his last 5. Training out of Silverback Fight Club, Lewis has wins over current UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou (17-3-0), #3 ranked heavyweight Curtis Blaydes (17-3-0), and #11 ranked heavyweight Chris Daukaus (12-5-0). Famous for his kill-or-be-killed style, Lewis has some of the most powerful punches in the UFC, arguably only matched by Francis Ngannou. When striking, Lewis has a unique, patient style that he uses to catch his opponents off guard with his massive power. Surprisingly for someone of his stature, he has shown the ability to throw powerful kicks and even the occasional jumping kick but will primarily use his hands to do damage. He doesn’t often initiate grappling exchanges and is well known for his non-technical wrestling style of “just getting up,” but he can do severe damage if he gets on top of someone. Spivac has won 4 of his last five outings and has wins over Augusto Sakai (15-5-1), Aleksei Oleinik (60-17-1), and everyone’s favorite scumbag Greg Hardy (7-5-0). Spivac has a background in sambo, averages just over four takedowns landed per fight, and is highly dangerous on top. Training with Polar Bear Team, Spivac has excellent takedowns and will often shoot early, usually securing takedowns quickly. Spivac is always trying to do damage when he's on top and will throw plenty of damaging ground and pound, particularly elbows. He has great control, is extremely hard to shake off, and is willing to hold half-guard and go to work. On the feet, Spivac mainly uses his hands, usually throwing bombs with his right before getting in close to clinch or go for a takedown. Spivac, like most heavyweights, has heavy hands and the power to put someone’s lights out on the feet but usually won’t spend too much time standing up. Spivac is the favorite at -200, making Lewis a +170 underdog. I can’t even give a proper analysis, I’m far too biased and love Derrick Lewis too much, and I can’t handle seeing him lose again. So with that in mind, I’m taking Lewis by KO/TKO and under 4.5 rounds. MMA gods, please spare us.

Picks: Lewis by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 rounds