UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Prelims
Michael Johnson vs. Mark Diakiese
Lightweight Bout
Michael Johnson: 21-18-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Marc Diakiese: 16-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
A matchup of two well-rounded UFC veterans, this will be an exciting fight. Johnson has found victory in one of his last five outings and holds victories over #2 ranked lightweight Dustin Poirier (29-7-0), #15 ranked lightweight Tony Ferguson (26-8-0), and #13 ranked featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0). Johnson has been in the promotion since 2010 and is an alumnus of the 12th season of the Ultimate Fighter, with a background in collegiate wrestling. Johnson has fought a who’s who of the lightweight division and is well respected for his well-roundedness and devastating punching power. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Johnson has blazing-fast hands and loves to get into the pocket and throw 4-5 punch combinations. He has power in both hands, with his best weapon being his straights, but he also tends to throw damaging, wide hooks. Johnson has great takedown defense, having defended 79% of takedowns attempted on him in his UFC career. He has wrestling ability but only seems to use it when he’s losing on the feet, but he can land serious ground and pound if he gets on top. Diakiese has wins in three of his last five bouts, with his best wins coming over Lando Vannata (12-6-2), Joe Duffy (16-5-0), and Viacheslav Borshchev (6-3-0). Diakiese is primarily known for his kickboxing ability, possessing a dangerous arsenal of kicks he’ll often throw more than his hands. Diakiese won’t push a crazy pace, often throwing single shots but throwing everything with power. Diakiese is quick, never telegraphs his shots, and has some of the most brutal leg kicks in the sport. Training at American Top Team, Diakiese has recently used a wrestling-heavy attack, landing 19 takedowns in his last two fights. He’s a tenacious wrestler, willing to work hard along the fence to secure takedowns, and has smothering top control when he gets on top. Like his striking style, he won’t put out a ton of output, preferring to control his opponent and find safe positions. He has a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has shown a solid ability to transition and keep himself in advantageous positions, wearing down his opponents with his relentless grappling. Diakiese is a sizable favorite at -300, with Johnson the +240 underdog. I get why people are fading Johnson; you see one win in his last five, which looks bad, but his last loss was a very close split decision, and he had a KO win before that. Johnson has excellent takedown defense and pushes a much heavier pace on the feet than Diakiese. I could see Diakiese coming out, taking Johnson down, and doing what he’s done in his last two fights, but I think Johnson has the grit and skill to pull this one off. I’m taking Johnson and over 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Michael Johnson +240, Over 2.5 roundsNiko Price vs. Phil Rowe
Welterweight Bout
Niko Price: 15-5-0, 10 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Phil Rowe: 9-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
This fight sees two exciting strikers collide in the octagon. Price has won two of his last five fights, with one victory overturned to a no-contest due to a positive test for THC (sigh). Price has wins over Tim Means (32-14-1), Randy Brown (16-4-0), and Alex Oliveira (22-12-1), as well as one of the two ever upkick knockouts in UFC history. Price is always in exciting fights, has won Performance of the Night 4 times in his promotional tenure, and has averaged 86 significant strikes in his last five outings. Training at Syndicate Boxing Club, Price puts power into everything he throws, typically staying in the pocket and throwing in combination. He’s most at home in a brawl, fighting in a phonebooth and swinging wild hooks, often swarming his opponent with extensive combinations. Price is willing to grapple and has solid wrestling, usually able to reverse position and get on top to land ground and pound. With nine of his thirteen career finishes coming in round 1, he is by far at his most dangerous early on. Rowe has won four of his last five bouts, with his UFC victories coming over Jason Witt (19-9-0) and Orion Cosce (8-1-0). Rowe is an excellent striker who tends to keep his hands down, waiting for a chance to let his hands go and throw combinations. Rowe throws everything with power, has extremely fast hands, and does a great job attacking the body and head evenly. Training at Fusion X-Cel, Rowe always stays technical even when throwing big combinations, keeping all his punches tight and accurate. He has finished every win of his career, and both of his UFC wins came in the second round, so he does tend to take some time before he gets going. He can strike at distance and in the pocket, possessing excellent clinch striking and devastating knees. Rowe doesn’t seem interested in taking it to the ground but has shown good ability off his back and a great ability to get back to his feet, always appearing calm and collected wherever the fight goes. Price is a slight favorite at -135, making Rowe a +115 underdog. Picking a winner is tough, but choosing the rounds is not; this should go under 2.5 rounds. This is super tough, I think Rowe has a definite speed advantage and is more technical, but Price is incredibly tough. I’m going to take Rowe here; I think his technical skill will make the difference.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Rowe +115Main Card
Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus
Middleweight Bout
Eryk Anders: 14-7-0, 8 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Kyle Daukaus: 11-3-0, 0 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Two well-rounded fighters match up in this fight. Anders has won one of his last five outings with one no-contest and has wins over Darren Stewart (12-9-0), Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0), and Brendan Allen (20-5-0). Anders is a particularly big middleweight and carries serious power in both hands, usually favoring his left. Anders will often dip his head and throw overhands and is always looking to set up big shots on the feet. He rarely throws kicks and is always looking to get into the pocket and let his hands fly. Training at Fight Ready, Anders is averaging over one takedown landed per fight and will often shoot early. If he takes the fight to the mat, he’s tough to shake off and focuses on landing damage instead of seeking a submission. Anders also has skills off his back and solid takedown defense, having defended 75% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Seven of his nine career finishes came in the first round, so Anders is at his most dangerous early in the fight. Daukaus has won two of his last five fights with one no-contest, with his UFC victories coming over Jamie Pickett (13-8-0) and Dustin Stoltzfus (14-5-0). Daukaus is a lengthy fighter and uses it on the feet, managing his distance well and striking from range. He has fast hands and uses technical boxing, fighting behind his jab and always throwing in combination. Training at Martinez BJJ, Daukaus has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is a serious submission threat, with all his career finishes coming via choke. He will usually shoot in early and transition quickly on the ground, always looking for a submission or ground and pound openings. He is always moving on the ground and is extremely hard to shake off, and he does a great job of controlling his opponent while also advancing position. Six of his nine career submissions came via d’arce choke, so Daukaus is always hunting for his opponent’s neck and usually ends the fight quickly if he finds it. Daukaus is the favorite in this bout at -210, with Anders returning as a +175 underdog. This is an interesting fight; Anders is bigger and more physically gifted, whereas Daukaus is quicker and more technically skilled. I’ll side with the oddsmakers here, I expect this fight to end up on the mat, and I think Daukaus has an advantage in the grappling. Rounds are tough to pick here; this could end up a 15-minute grappling match or a first-round finish. I’ll follow my gut and take under 2.5 rounds, but it could go either way.
Picks: Daukaus -210, Under 2.5 rounds#8 Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze
Middleweight Bout
Jack Hermansson: 23-7-0, 11 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Roman Dolidze: 11-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Another matchup of well-rounded fighters; this should be fireworks. Hermansson has won 3 of his last 5, with wins over #11 ranked middleweight Kelvin Gastellum (17-8-0), Chris Curtis (29-9-0), and Jacare Souza (26-10-0). Training at Frontline Academy, Hermansson is a well-rounded fighter, willing to engage in exchanges on the feet and on the ground. While he does have solid striking, it seems Hermansson prefers to take the fight to the mat, averaging about two takedowns a fight. When on the ground, he’s a bit more likely to pursue ground and pound than a submission but will grab a choke when given a chance. When striking, Hermansson uses a boxing style, often throwing a lot of leg and body kicks before letting his hands go. Hermansson is at his most dangerous early in a fight, having five first-round finishes in the UFC, two being knockouts with three submissions. “The Joker” has shown some decent power in his hands and can certainly put someone away, but seems his most comfortable in grappling situations, landing at least one takedown in all but one of his UFC wins. Dolidze has won 4 of his last five outings and has wins over Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0), Phil Hawes (12-4-0), and Kyle Daukaus (11-3-0). Dolidze has a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Sambo background and is an accomplished grappler outside MMA. Averaging over two takedowns landed a fight, Dolidze is most at home on the mat, where he also averages over one submission attempt per fight. Dolidze is excellent in the clinch and very hard to shake off, and he has shown an ability to throw damaging knees to the head when clinched against the fence. Training at Xtreme Couture, Dolidze won’t punch a ton while grappling, mainly focusing on improving his position and controlling his opponent. Dolidze has good power in his hands and prefers to counter-strike when on the feet, not moving his feet a ton but always moving his head. He gets his best work done in the clinch, and when he breaks off, he often throws power shots in close. Hermansson is the favorite at -175, with Dolidze a +150 underdog. This is a huge step up in competition for Dolidze, so I’m almost surprised he got this fight. Dolidze is undoubtedly skilled and on a hot streak, but Hermansson is much more experienced and has been fighting top guys for much longer. I have to take Hermansson here, as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Hermansson -175, Under 2.5 rounds#4 Tai Tuivasa vs. #5 Sergei Pavlovich
Heavyweight Bout
Tai Tuivasa: 15-4-0, 14 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Sergei Pavlovich: 16-1-0, 13 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Two classic heavyweight brawlers; I’d be shocked if this fight even sees a second round. Tuivasa has won four of his last five outings and has wins over #7 ranked heavyweight Derrick Lewis (26-10-0), former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski (34-21-0), and Stefan Struve (33-13-0). Tuivasa has serious power in both hands and only needs to land one shot to put his opponent to sleep. Tuivasa has excellent distance management, fighting behind his jab and moving into the pocket to throw bombs. Training at Lions High Performance Centre, Tuivasa is willing to eat a shot to land one and has a granite chin, often getting rocked before finding the finish. He won’t initiate grappling exchanges but has shown solid ability in the clinch, both in terms of controlling his opponent and landing damage. Twelve of his 14 career knockouts came in the first round, and he’s only been to two decisions, so Tuivasa is dangerous from the second the bell rings. Pavlovich has similarly won four of his last five fights, with his best wins coming over Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-7-0), Maurice Greene (10-7-0), and Kirill Sidelnikov (14-7-0). Pavlovich has one-shot knockout power in both hands and is constantly pressuring forward, looking for openings. He uses a boxing style on the feet, staying behind his jab and favoring his right hand. Training at Eagles MMA, Pavlovich has a background in Greco-Roman wrestling and sambo and is capable of grappling but is much more likely to keep the fight standing. Pavlovich is yet to need more than 21 punches in his UFC tenure to secure a finish and tends to throw in combination. All 13 of his career knockouts came in the first round, with every fight that didn’t end round one ending up a decision victory for Pavlovich. He uses plenty of feints and doesn’t telegraph shots but throws everything with power and is always looking for the knockout blow. Pavlovich is the favorite at -220, making Tuivasa a +180 underdog. One thing is for damn near sure; this fight won’t see a second round, so under 2.5 or even 1.5 rounds is a lock. These guys have such similar styles and power I don’t think there’s any objective way to pick a winner, so I’m riding with my guy Tuivasa on this one. No matter what happens, this fight will produce a highlight.
Picks: Tuivasa by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds#6 Matheus Nicolau vs. #7 Matt Schnell
Flyweight Bout
Matheus Nicolau: 18-3-1, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Matt Schnell: 16-6-0, 2 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
This fight sees a collision in the octagon of two very well-rounded flyweights. Nicolau has found victory in all of his last five bouts and has wins over #9 ranked flyweight David Dvorak (20-4-0),#10 ranked flyweight Tim Elliot (19-12-1), and #12 ranked flyweight Manel Kape (17-6-0). Nicolau is very defensively sound on the feet and constantly moves, with only 33% of significant strikes attempted on him landing. Nicolau stays on the outside and uses excellent distance management, darting in and out of the pocket to land damage. Training at Novo União, Nicolau is a counter-striker and will often dip his head to throw overhands, especially with his right. He is a black belt in BJJ and is averaging both over one takedown landed and one submission attempted per fight but seems to prefer to keep it standing. Nicolau’s pace tends to increase as the fight continues, and he does a great job of changing levels and attacking both the head and body. Schnell has won two of his last five, with a loss overturned to a no-contest. Schnell’s best wins came over Louis Smolka (17-9-0), Sumudaerji (16-5-0), and Tyson Nam (21-12-1). Like his opponent, Schnell is willing to engage the fight just about anywhere, using a technical boxing style on the feet and favoring wrestling in grappling exchanges. Like most flyweights, Schnell has fast hands but has decent power for the weight class as well, often setting up his grappling with his striking and vice versa. Schnell is excellent at capitalizing on his opponent’s mistakes and will regularly grab chokes when defending takedowns. Of his eight career submission wins, 6 are chokes, all of which are either a guillotine or triangle. Training at Fortis MMA, Schnell has a black belt in karate, so despite largely boxing when on the feet, he has a kicking game to back up his hands. Schnell seems to be at his most vulnerable in the first round, with three first-round KO losses in his UFC career, but he also has a handful of first-round wins on his record, so he’s pretty unpredictable in the opening round. Nicolau is a sizeable favorite at -380, with Schnell returning a +300 underdog. While Schnell’s last five haven’t all gone his way, if you’ve watched them, you know Schnell is a dog. Nicolau is skilled and well-rounded but tends to push a relatively slow and technical pace. On the other hand, Schnell always ends up in wild wars on the feet, and I think his pace presents a real issue for Nicolau. I’m taking Schnell as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Schnell +300, Under 2.5 roundsBryan Barberena vs. #7 (LW) Rafael dos Anjos
Welterweight Bout
Bryan Barberena: 18-8-0, 11 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Rafael dos Anjos: 31-14-0, 5 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
A fascinating matchup of two fighters with vastly different styles, this should be a fun one. Barberena has won four of his last five outings and has wins over former UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler (29-16-0), Sage Northcutt (11-3-0), and Jake Ellenberger (31-15-0). Barberena is your quintessential brawler, always looking to get into the pocket to land big combinations. Barberena is more than willing to eat a shot to land one and has a granite chin, often blitzing forward and dipping his head before letting his hands go. Training at Gym-O, he’s averaged about 96 significant strikes landed in his last five bouts and pushes a frantic pace. Barberena tends to open combinations with leg kicks at range and throws every shot with power. Barberena rarely takes the fight to the mat but has shown a solid ability to get back to his feet. He has solid cardio, and eight of his 13 finishes have come in round two or later, so he’s dangerous at any point in the fight. Barberena is exceptionally tough and loves to get into wars, regularly fighting in a phone booth and taking plenty of damage. Dos Anjos has found victory in two of his last five fights and has wins over #12 ranked welterweight Neil Magny (27-10-0), #13 ranked lightweight Renato Moicano (17-5-1), and former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (25-14-0). Dos Anjos is a former UFC lightweight champion and is incredibly well-rounded, having the ability to finish the fight wherever it goes. Training at Novo União, dos Anjos is constantly pressuring forward on the feet, fighting behind his jab, and always staying technical. He has solid head movement and varies his strikes well, attacking the head and body evenly. Dos Anjos averages just under two takedowns landed per fight and has excellent wrestling, often securing takedowns quickly and in open space. When he’s on top, dos Anjos is tough to shake off and is constantly pursuing damage. He averaged 78 significant strikes in his last five fights and will always be landing shots on the ground or the feet. Dos Anjos is the biggest favorite on the whole card at -550, with Barberena returning as a +400 underdog. The odds don’t surprise me; dos Anjos is considerably more skilled and technical and should easily win this fight. I’m taking dos Anjos and over 2.5 rounds, but Barberena is incredibly tough and can never be counted out of a fight.
Picks: dos Anjos, Over 2.5 rounds#6 Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland
Welterweight Bout
Stephen Thompson: 16-6-1, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Kevin Holland: 23-8-0, 11 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
This fight sees two excellent welterweight strikers collide in the octagon. Thompson has won two of his last five fights and has wins over former UFC Welterweight Champion Johny Hendricks (18-8-0), #6 ranked welterweight Geoff Neal (15-4-0), and #9 ranked welterweight Vicente Luque (21-9-1). Thompson always puts on a show, whether a loss or a victory. One of the last true specialists in MMA, Thompson has become famous for his karate-based striking, utilizing a split leg stance, constant attacks with his front leg, and long straight punches. Training with Team Upstate Karate, “Wonderboy” went 58-0 in kickboxing before his MMA career. Thompson has some of the quickest strikes in the sport and never telegraphs anything. He possesses excellent movement and is often hard to hit, but he has a solid chin and has only been knocked out once in his entire combat sports career. You’ll practically never see Thompson initiate grappling exchanges, but he has shown improvement on the ground, especially in his defensive wrestling. Holland has won 2 of his last five fights with one no-contest and has wins over Joaquin Buckley (15-5-0), Jacare Souza (26-10-0), and Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0). Holland has surged in popularity since 2020, with fans loving his brash, loud-mouth style in which he will spend an entire fight talking to his opponent, regardless of whether he’s winning or losing. Holland is an aggressive striker, typically throwing combinations and always willing to engage on the feet. He does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket, although he has no problem hanging in close to exchange on the inside. Training at Travis Lutter BJJ, Holland tends to throw kicks at range, using his kicks to set up his hands, often throwing kicks naked or at the start of a combination. After fighting most of his UFC career at Middleweight, this marks his second venture into the welterweight division in the promotion, and he has looked both bigger and stronger in the weight class. While he has struggled with his takedown defense in the past, he’s shown solid improvement as of late and, despite preferring striking, has a slick submission game. Holland is the favorite at -170, with Thompson the +145 underdog. This an entertaining matchup, and both are great strikers, but unless Holland decides to grapple, Thompson has a definite advantage. Thompson has more experience as is more technically skilled, so I’m taking Thompson and over 4.5 rounds.
Picks: Thompson +145, Over 4.5 rounds