UFC 282

Prelims

#14 Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley

Middleweight Bout

Chris Curtis: 29-9-0, 15 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Joaquin Buckley: 15-5-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

An excellent matchup of exciting strikers; this should be a great fight from bell to bell. Curtis has won four of his last five outings, with his UFC wins coming over Phil Hawes (12-4-0), Brendan Allen (20-5-0), and Rodolfo Vieira (8-2-0). Curtis is a veteran of the sport, having started his pro career in 2009, and is an excellent technical boxer on the feet. Curtis has one-shot knockout power in both hands and varies his strikes well, attacking the head and body evenly. Training at Xtreme Couture, Curtis has great counterstriking and will often dip his head before returning fire with a barrage of hooks. He throws everything in combination and is at his best when he stays behind his jab and pressures forward, controlling the fight's pace. He’s shown great patience and doesn’t overexert himself on the feet, but he has a solid chin and is willing to eat a shot to land one. Curtis has shown excellent takedown defense and has denied every takedown attempted on him in the UFC, and he also possesses a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Buckley has found victory in three of his last five bouts, with his best wins coming over Albert Duraev (15-4-0), Jordan Wright (12-4-0), and his 2020 KO of the year of Impa Kasanganay (10-3-0). Buckley is a highly aggressive striker with serious power in both hands. He is always moving and pursuing a finish, throwing every shot with power and often mixing in kicks at the end of combinations. Although Buckley has enormous power in his hands, his kicks might be his most dangerous weapon, especially as he throws them everywhere from every angle. Training at Finney’s HIT Squad, Buckley throws everything in combination and pushes a frantic pace, and is willing to throw wild attacks like flying knees and spinning kicks. He’s averaging over one takedown landed per fight and has decent takedown defense, but he prefers to keep it standing where he’s most comfortable. All his UFC finishes have come in round 2 or later, so he gets more dangerous as the fight continues. Buckley is the favorite at -150, with Curtis returning a +125 underdog. Both men have very similar styles and push similar paces, but Buckley has more diversity in his striking game, especially with his kicks. Buckley’s constant movement and ability to fight at range will make the difference here; I’m taking Buckley and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Buckley -150, Under 2.5 rounds

#9 Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. #11 Chris Daukaus

Heavyweight Bout

Jairzinho Rozenstruik: 12-4-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Chris Daukaus: 12-5-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Two powerful heavyweights collide in what I expect to be a quick fight. Rozenstruik has won two of his last five fights, with his best wins coming over former UFC heavyweight champions Junior Dos Santos (21-10-0) and Andrei Arlovski (34-21-0), and Alistair Overeem (47-19-0). Rozenstruik is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 76-8, with 64 wins by knockout. Eight of his eleven career knockouts have come in the first round, so he’s at his most dangerous early on. Training at American Top Team, Rozenstruik is an excellent counter striker who looks to draw his opponent into the pocket so he can land big shots with his right hand. Rozenstruik has one-shot KO power but can string together long combinations if he lets his hands go. He has solid takedown defense and has defended 75% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC, and he has also never been submitted. Rozenstruik has excellent hand speed for a heavyweight, throws everything with power, and often mixes kicks into the end of combinations. Daukaus has won three of his last five outings and has scored notable wins over Aleksei Oleinik (59-16-1) and Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0). Training at Martinez BJJ, Daukaus possesses excellent speed for a heavyweight, using his sharp boxing to overwhelm his opponents with volume and power. He won’t often take the fight to the mat but possesses solid clinch work and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Daukaus also has solid defensive wrestling, with his takedown defense percentage a sparkly 100%. If he does get on top, he has excellent control and will throw devastating ground and pound. Daukaus throws everything in combination, has great hand speed for the weight class, and never loads up on his shots. He will stay technical even when hunting the finish and has solid footwork that he uses to pressure forward constantly. Rozenstruik is the favorite at -170, with Daukaus the underdog at +145. Both men have lost their last two fights and need a big win, so under 2.5 rounds is a given. I think Rozenstruik has a size and experience advantage, but I don’t think he’ll be able to handle the speed or pace of Daukaus. I’m taking Daukaus by finish.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Daukaus by Finish

Main Card

#9 Bryce Mitchell vs. #14 Ilia Topuria

Featherweight Bout

Bryce Mitchell: 15-1-0, 0 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Ilia Topuria: 12-0-0, 4 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

This fight sees two of the hottest prospects in the UFC matchup in a significant bout for the division. Mitchell has won all of his last five outings and has wins over #13 ranked featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0), Andre Fili (22-9-0), and Charles Rosa (14-8-0). Mitchell is a high-level grappler, averaging over three takedowns landed per fight and nearly two submission attempts per fight in the UFC. With both a wrestling background and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Mitchell quickly gets the fight to the ground. He has excellent top control on the ground and always pursues a finish, whether ground and pound or a submission. Training at Barata MMA, Mitchell has one of two ever wins via twister in UFC history and is at his most dangerous early, with eight of his nine career submissions coming in round one. On the feet, Mitchell constantly moves, cuts off the cage well, and shows decent power in his hands. He tends to use lots of feints and technical boxing, but he will throw the occasional flashy kick. Topuria is undefeated and has wins over Ryan Hall (9-2-0), Damon Jackson (19-4-1), and Yousseff Zalal (10-5-0). He uses a boxing style on the feet, staying very composed and fighting behind his jab, and does an excellent job of mixing up his attacks between the head and body. With great power in both hands, he’s very dangerous on the feet at all times, proven by the fact that he’s only seen a second round three times in his career. Topuria is also an excellent grappler with multiple submissions on his record, although he has yet to submit anyone in the UFC. He has excellent wrestling, often using double-leg takedowns to bring his opponent down. He has good top control and does a great job of staying aware of any submission attempts thrown his way while often pursuing multiple submissions, typically chokes. No matter where the fight goes, Topuria always looks for the finish, whether it’s a knockout or a submission. Topuria is a slight favorite at -135, with Mitchell, the underdog, at +115. I’d be shocked to see this fight go to a decision, so I’ll take under 2.5 rounds. As for picking a winner, this is an incredibly tough choice; these are two of my absolute favorite fighters. Topuria has a definite striking advantage, whereas Mitchell has the grappling advantage. This is a total toss-up, I’m going to take Topuria because I think he’s a bit more well-rounded, but this fight could easily go either way.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Topuria -135

#10 Darren Till vs. #14 Dricus Du Plessis

Middleweight Bout

Darren Till: 18-4-1, 10 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Dricus Du Plessis: 17-2-0, 7 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

In this bout, we see two fighters who seem to be trending in opposite directions. Till has won one of his last five fights and has wins over #6 ranked welterweight Stephen Thompson (17-6-1), #12 ranked middleweight Kelvin Gastelum (17-8-0), and Donald Cerrone (36-17-0). Till is a dynamic striker with great footwork and a technical Muay Thai style. Till always throws in combination, usually setting up his attacks with his jab before entering the pocket to let his hands go. Training with Team Kaobon, Till has excellent distance management and moves quickly in and out of the pocket, rarely staying in one spot for long. He throws every shot with purpose and will stay technical across an entire fight, often switching stances repeatedly. Till often looks to counter strike, regularly dipping his head to avoid strikes before returning fire. He won’t often take the fight to the mat but has shown great clinch striking at solid takedown defense, having defended 78% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Du Plessis has won all of his last five bouts, with his UFC victories coming over Markus Perez (12-6-0), Trevin Giles (15-4-0), and Brad Tavares (19-8-0). Du Plessis has a kickboxing background and shows it on the feet, often throwing a barrage of kicks from distance, especially to the legs. Du Plessis has one-shot knockout power, with many of his knockouts seemingly coming out of nowhere. Training at CIT Performance Institute, he has power in both hands and will often blitz forward to throw big combinations. Du Plessis throws everything with power and never telegraphs his shots, making him dangerous at all times. He’s also shown some solid grappling ability, quickly advancing position on the ground and often securing takedowns quickly. On top, he stays patient and won’t force anything, focusing on getting to advantageous positions before throwing ground and pound. Du Plessis went to the first decision of his entire career in his last outing, with all of his 16 previous fights ending via finish. Du Plessis is the favorite at -180, making Till a +155 underdog. My brain says Du Plessis, but my heart says Till. Du Plessis has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to secure a win easily if he can get the fight to the mat, but were yet to see how Till’s wrestling has improved since training with Khamzat Chimaev. I’ll stay safe and take Du Plessis by finish and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Du Plessis by Finish

Alex Morono vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Welterweight Bout

Alex Morono: 22-7-0, 6 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Santiago Ponzinibbio: 29-6-0, 15 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

In this bout, we see a late replacement in Morono step up to take a tough matchup. Morono has won four of his last five outings and has wins over Donald Cerrone (36-17-0), Zak Ottow (20-8-0), and Max Griffin (19-9-0). Morono is exceptionally well-rounded, holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Taekwondo. Morono keeps his hands high on the feet and stays technical, usually fighting behind his jab and throwing in combination. Morono has excellent footwork and head movement, often just getting out of the way of strikes and regularly ducking his head to slip and counter. Training at Fortis MMA, Morono is constantly moving and does a great job of darting in and out of the pocket and never loads up or telegraphs his shots. He has solid cardio and is averaging about 70 significant strikes landed per fight in his last five bouts, and he has landed 90 or more significant strikes in a fight six times in the UFC. With eleven of his twelve career finishes coming round one, he’s very dangerous early. He won’t often take the fight to the ground, but Morono is dangerous off his back and on top. Ponzinibbio returned to fighting in 2021 after three years due to health complications. He’s won two of his last five fights and has wins over #12 ranked welterweight Neil Magny (27-10-0), Miguel Baeza (10-3-0), and the “Nigerian Nightmare” Mike Perry (14-8-0). Training at American Top Team, Ponzinibbio is best known for his impressive striking and power, using a solid mix of punches and kicks to get the job done. Ponzinibbio has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and while he does have six submission victories, they all came outside the promotion, and he’s unlikely to take the fight to the mat. He has a great ability to remain technical across a whole fight and can fight at distance as well as in the pocket. Averaging about 80 significant strikes landed per fight in his last five bouts, Ponzinibbio has a good chin and solid cardio, able to push the same pace across 15 minutes. Fifteen of his 21 career finishes have come in the first round, so he’s very dangerous early in the fight. Ponzinibbio is the favorite in this bout at -205, with Morono the +155 underdog. Despite coming in on short notice, Morono is one of the most game fighters in the sport, and I expect this to be a very close fight. Ponzinibbio had been preparing for a vastly different opponent in Robbie Lawler, and I think the technicality and skill of Morono will be a real problem for him. I’m going to take Morono and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Morono +155, Over 2.5 rounds

Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon

Lightweight Bout

Paddy Pimblett: 19-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Jared Gordon: 19-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

This fight is a fascinating matchup of two well-rounded fighters. Pimblett has won all of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Luigi Vendramini (9-3-0), Kazula Vargas (12-5-0), and Jordan Leavitt (10-2-0). Pimblett is a very aggressive striker, always throwing everything with power and using a variety of wild kicks. Pimblett always throws in combination and is willing to brawl in the pocket, often blitzing forward and swinging wild hooks. Training at Next Generation UK, Pimblett is an excellent grappler, and in his promotional tenure, he’s averaging nearly five submission attempts and two takedowns landed per fight. Pimblett has excellent takedowns and advances position very quickly on the ground, using his black belt in BJJ to pursue submissions at all times. He’s very creative on the ground and is one of the most dangerous men in the sport to have on your back, as he will often wrap up chokes very quickly. Six of his nine career submissions are rear naked chokes, and he also has two flying triangle wins, so if he can get a hold of his opponent’s neck, the fight is practically over. Gordon has won four of his last five bouts, with his best victories coming over Joe Solecki (12-3-0), Bill Algeo (16-7-0), and Leonardo Santos (18-7-1). Averaging about two takedowns landed per fight in the UFC, Gordon has great wrestling both in open space and on the fence but is willing to stand and exchange as well. On the feet, he’ll often get into the pocket and lower his head, throwing powerful hooks and uppercuts. He gets out of the way of damage well at range and often throws leg kicks. When it goes to the ground, Gordon prefers ground and pound to chasing a submission, applying heavy top control, and landing devastating shots. Training at Sanford MMA, Gordon does a great job of pushing the pace the entire fight, often relentless in his search for a takedown or engaging in brawls inside the pocket. Gordon is averaging about 74 significant strikes landed in his last five fights and has solid cardio, able to push the same pace across all three rounds. Pimblett is the favorite at -260, with Gordon the +210 underdog. In another fight where I’m struggling to pick a winner, under 2.5 rounds is the safest bet. Gordon is the best competition Paddy has faced and is very well-rounded. I will not be the guy to pick against Paddy, so I’ll take him by finish, but I will not be surprised if Gordon somehow pulls this off.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Pimblett by Finish

#3 Jan Blachowicz vs. #4 Magomed Ankalaev

Light Heavyweight Title Bout

Jan Blachowicz: 29-9-0, 9 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Magomed Ankalaev: 18-1-0, 10 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

This is an excellent matchup of well-rounded fighters competing for the vacant light heavyweight title. Blachowicz has won four of his last five outings and has wins over former UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya (23-2-0), #5 ranked light heavyweight Aleksander Rakic (14-3-0), and #8 ranked light heavyweight Nikita Krylov (29-9-0). Blachowicz is an excellent kickboxer with serious power in his hands and kicks. Blachowicz has great footwork and does an excellent job of stalking his opponents and cutting off the cage, and he will always let his hands go when he enters the pocket. Training at Berkut WCA Fight Team, he’ll often blitz forward to land big combinations, but also has solid counter striking and is always looking for openings. Blachowicz has one-punch knockout power and does a great job of evenly varying his strikes, attacking the head and body. He has also shown excellent wrestling and takedowns and holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, so he is very capable on the ground, both on top and off his back. Ankalaev has won all of his last five fights and holds victories over #6 ranked light heavyweight Anthony Smith (36-17-0), #10 ranked light heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (18-7-0), and Thiago Santos (22-11-0). Ankalaev has a grappling background, holding the rank of Master of Sport in combat sambo. Despite this, he only averages about one takedown landed per fight and will often keep it on the feet. He is very patient and will often throw plenty of single shots, but he makes up for his lack of volume with power. Ankalaev constantly presses forward and throws every shot with purpose, with his pace increasing as the fight continues. Training at Gorets, he holds the center well and often waits for openings or chances to counter before letting his hands go. He has a solid kicking game and will often mix kicks into the end of combinations, never overextending himself. When he takes the fight to the mat, he is tough to shake off and will throw vicious ground and pound until he secures a finish. Ankalaev is the biggest favorite of the main card at -270, with Blachowicz the +220 underdog. I will fully admit my bias for Blachowicz, but I believe he can and should win this fight. Ankalaev’s tendency to fight at a slow, technical pace could not be more the opposite of Blachowicz, and I think Blachowicz has the wrestling to keep it on the feet if Ankalaev decides to wrestle. I’m going to take under 4.5 rounds and Blachowicz moneyline.

Picks: Blachowicz +220, Under 4.5 rounds