UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Prelims
Jake Matthews vs. Matthew Semelsberger
Welterweight Bout
Jake Matthews: 18-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Matthew Semelsberger: 10-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
This is a fascinating matchup of two high-pace fighters. Matthews has won four of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over Andre Fialho (16-6-0), Li Jingliang (19-8-0), and Diego Sanchez (31-14-0). Entering his 8th year in the promotion, Matthews had established himself as a grappler, averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fight and holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. In his last fight, though, he showed off vastly improved striking. Training at Nexus, Matthews uses technical kickboxing and stays behind his jab, often trying to draw his opponent in so he can counterstrike. He varies his attacks well, has a solid chin, and throws everything with power without loading up. He has power in both hands and great accuracy and doesn’t often overreach, usually remaining patient. When he does take it to the mat, he has great takedowns, excellent top control, and throws heavy ground and pound. Semelsberger has won three of his last five bouts, with his most impressive victories coming over AJ Fletcher (9-2-0), Martin Sano (4-3-1), and Jason Witt (19-9-0). Semelsberger is a dangerous striker with serious one-shot knockout power and is always pursuing a finish. Semelsberger is constantly pressuring forward and throwing combinations, using good footwork and stance switches to get to his opponent. Training at Crazy 88 BJJ, he has knockdowns in four of his six UFC fights and throws every shot with power but won’t telegraph or load up. He prefers to keep it striking, but if he does want to grapple, he’s shown excellent wrestling, landing every takedown he’s attempted in the UFC. He has excellent ground and pound, particularly elbows, and will pursue chokes if the opportunity presents itself. Matthews is one of the biggest favorites on the prelims at -260, making Semelsberger a +210 underdog. After his last fight, I have no idea what to expect from Matthews; he could come out and wrestle right away or stand and bang. Either way, I think he’s more technical and skilled than Semelsberger just about everywhere, so I’m taking Matthews and over 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Matthews -260, Over 2.5 roundsMain Card
Cody Brundage vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Middleweight Bout
Cody Brundage: 8-2-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Michal Oleksiejczuk: 17-5-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
A fight with two fighters who don’t see the judges often, this could be a quick one. Brundage has found victory in three of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Tresean Gore (5-2-0) and Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0). In his brief UFC tenure, Brundage is averaging just under two takedowns landed per fight, over one submission attempt per fight, and is a dangerous grappler. He is willing to fight on the feet and throws everything with power, often ducking his head to throw counterstrikes. Brundage uses a great variety of attacks and is a creative striker, with him most commonly throwing overhands and hooks. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, Brundage often shoots early and has solid takedowns, usually securing them quickly. He advances very quickly on top and will pursue submissions, often jumping on guillotines. Brundage is very explosive, has one-shot knockout power, and has excellent clinch striking. Oleksiejczuk has won three of his last five outings, with wins over my dad Sam Alvey (33-18-1), Gian Villante (17-14-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (12-5-0). Oleksiejczuk is an aggressive striker who is always coming forward and throwing combinations. He has an excellent chin and considerable power in his hands, often entering the pocket and throwing looping hooks. Oleksiejczuk has excellent head movement and footwork and is an efficient striker, never wasting energy and throwing everything with purpose. Training at Ankos MMA, Oleksiejczuk won’t stay at range long and is willing to eat a shot to land one, and virtually never throws kicks, only using his hands to land damage. Nine of his thirteen career finishes have come inside the first round, so he’s definitely at his most dangerous early. Oleksiejczuk holds the center well and does a great job cutting off the cage, always stalking his opponents and looking for openings to throw big combinations. Oleksiejczuk is the favorite at -280, with Brundage a +230 underdog. Brundage has a better chance than the odds suggest; he has a definite grappling advantage, but his tendency to stay on the outside of the cage and get backed up hurts him in this matchup. It’s not easy to wrestle going backward; if it stays on the feet, I think Oleksiejczuk can get it done quickly. I’ll take Oleksiejczuk by knockout and under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 roundsDrew Dober vs. Bobby Green
Lightweight Bout
Drew Dober: 25-11-0, 13 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Bobby Green: 29-13-1, 10 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
This is my favorite fight of the card, and I expect a war. Dober has won three of his last five fights and has wins over Terrance McKinney (13-4-0), Alexander Hernandez (13-6-0), and Nasrat Haqparast (14-5-0). Dober is an excellent striker with a Muay Thai background and a black belt in Taekwondo. Dober always stays technical and throws all his punches tight and straight, rarely throwing looping shots. He has powerful kicks and serious power in his hands and carries that power across all three rounds. Training with Elevation Fight Team, Dober has excellent head movement and varies shots, attacking the head and body evenly. He’s willing to brawl in the pocket, but he doesn’t get sloppy, has solid footwork, and is always coming forward. Dober does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket, throwing kicks and range, and damaging combinations in close. Green has won two of his last five bouts and has wins over Al Iaquinta (14-7-1), Clay Guida (37-18-0), and Josh Thomson (22-9-0). Training at Pinnacle MMA, Green is an excellent boxer, picking his opponents apart with quick combinations and damaging straights. Green is rarely in a boring fight, always willing to go to the center of the octagon and exchange blows. He has won Performance of the Night once and Fight of the Night 3 times in his career, backing up his scrappy tendencies. Green also has solid wrestling to supplement his striking, having defended 72% of takedowns attempted on him and possesses good top control and a decent submission game. Green has landed 52% of his significant strikes and has defended 62% of strikes thrown at him, making him a rather efficient striker, able to engage in the pocket and land big shots without taking damage in return. Green does a great job mixing up his strikes, attacking the head and the body, and throwing the occasional kick to finish a combination. Dober is the favorite at -155, making Green a +130 underdog. There are no easy picks in this fight, but neither guy has been finished on the feet in a long time, and I’d be shocked if either attempted to grapple, so I’ll take over 2.5 rounds. Dober is a bit more technical and has more variety in his attacks due to his kicking game, so I’ll take Dober here. You should never count Green out of a fight, though.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Dober -155Alex Caceres vs. Julian Erosa
Featherweight Bout
Alex Caceres: 19-13-0, 3 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Julian Erosa: 28-10-0, 11 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.
This fight sees a matchup of two fighters who have recently been on the rise. Caceres has won four of his last five outings and has wins over current Bellator bantamweight champion Sergio Pettis (22-5-0), Chase Hooper (11-3-1), and SeungWoo Choi (10-6-0). Caceres is a lengthy striker who will float around the outside of the cage and is in perpetual motion. Caceres often throws more kicks than punches and has a serious arsenal of kicks, attacking from different angles and often using his lead leg. Caceres is tough to hit, nearly doubling the number of significant strikes he lands on average compared to what he absorbs. Training at MMA LAB, Caceres won’t enter the pocket often and tends to throw single strikes with his hands but throws everything with power. Despite seven submission losses, Caceres is willing to grapple and will pursue submissions, with two submission wins in his last five fights. Erosa has won four of his last five outings and has wins over Sean Woodson (9-1-1), Charles Jourdain (13-6-1), and Steven Peterson (19-10-0). Erosa has an awkward style on the feet, staying very upright with his hands down, and throwing lots of looping hooks from strange angles. Erosa is seemingly always moving forward, whether to initiate a grappling exchange or land strikes and has the cardio to do so over three rounds. “Juicy J” is willing to get into brawls on the feet, gladly hanging in the pocket and exchanging combinations. Training at Xtreme Couture, Erosa averages about two takedowns landed per fight and is a slick submission artist, with two UFC victories via D’arce choke, one of which was standing. Although Erosa has some KO losses on his record, most of those came in round 1, so if his opponent can’t take him out early, he only gets more dangerous as the fight continues. Erosa is the favorite in this bout at -175, with Caceres the +150 underdog. Although Caceres has shown improved grappling as of late, Erosa still has a definite advantage on the ground and is more than skilled enough to go with Caceres on the feet. With seven submission losses on Caceres’s record and 12 submission wins on Erosa’s, I have to take Erosa by submission and under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Erosa by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds#8 Amir Albazi vs. Alessandro Costa
Flyweight Bout
Amir Albazi: 15-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Alessandro Costa: 12-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
A bout between two up-and-coming flyweights, this is an entertaining matchup. Albazi has won four of his last five outings, with his UFC victories coming over Malcolm Gordon (14-6-0), Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8-0), and Francisco Figueiredo (13-5-1). Albazi is a well-rounded fighter who’s most comfortable on the mat. In his three UFC fights, Albazi is averaging three takedowns landed per fight and over one submission attempt per fight. Training at Xtreme Couture, Albazi has excellent takedowns and is very hard to shake off, always staying active and pursuing a finish on top. He’s also dangerous on his back and advances position very quickly on the ground. He uses technical boxing, constant forward pressure, and great head movement on the feet to damage his opponent. Albazi makes excellent use of feints and doesn’t telegraph his shots, always fighting behind his jab and usually holding the center of the cage. Costa is making his UFC debut following a split decision victory over Juan Andres Luna (12-1-0) on Dana White’s Contender Series. Costa is similarly well-rounded but with a vastly different style. On the feet, Costa has one-shot knockout power in his hands and throws everything with fight-finishing intentions. He has great head movement and varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly, and he even has a body shot knockout on his record. Costa has heavy kicks, especially low kicks, and does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket without taking damage. Training at Legacy MMA, he’ll often blitz forward and throw combinations, but he also has great counterstriking and is always dangerous. Costa has great takedowns and is aggressive on the ground, constantly transitioning quickly and pursuing the finish. Five of his six career submissions came via armbar, and if he does take it to the mat, it’ll often be what he attempts first. Albazi is the biggest favorite on the card at -450, making Costa a +350 underdog. I’m a bit surprised by these odds; I don’t think the skill gap is nearly as wide as it’s been made out to be. Albazi is undoubtedly more technical and has the better experience, but Costa has serious power for flyweight and is a monster on the ground, so Albazi isn’t safe anywhere. I will roll the dice here and take Costa moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Costa +350, Over 2.5 rounds
#9 Arman Tsarukyan vs. #12 Damir Ismagulov
Lightweight Bout
Arman Tsarukyan: 18-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Damir Ismagulov: 24-1-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
This fight is an excellent matchup of two highly well-rounded fighters. Tsarukyan comes into this fight with wins in 4 of his last five outings, with the best of those wins being victories over Olivier Aubin-Mercier (13-5-0) and Davi Ramos (10-4-0), as well as a first-round knockout of Christos Giagos (19-9-0). His only UFC loss is to the current lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev, and based on the high-level competition he’s been given, the UFC is very high on this young fighter. He has crisp kickboxing on the feet, throwing plenty of combos ending with head kicks, and doing a great job moving in to land shots and back out to range. He will mix in some flashy spinning kicks and spinning backfists, staying calm and picking his opponent apart with quick shots and plenty of leg kicks. Training at Khabarovsk MMA and American Top Team, Tsarukyan has a solid wrestling background, willing to initiate grappling exchanges to land ground and pound and pursue submissions. All 5 of the submissions on his record were via choke, so he is certainly dangerous if he can get a hold of someone’s neck. Ismagulov has won all of his last five bouts and has wins over Guram Kutateladze (12-3-0), Rafael Alves (20-11-0), and Thiago Moises (16-6-0). Ismagulov is an aggressive striker with excellent footwork and head movement, on average landing nearly twice as many significant strikes than he absorbs. Ismagulov has fast hands, powerful kicks, and constantly pressures forward, always pumping his jab. Training at Boets MMA, he’s averaging about 61 significant strikes landed per fight in the UFC and varies his shots well, attacking the body and head evenly. Ismagulov has excellent footwork and does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket without taking damage. Ismagulov has great takedowns and excellent top control, usually pursuing ground and pound when in top position. He has fantastic takedown defense, having defended 90% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Tsarukyan is the favorite at -190, with Ismagulov returning as the +160 underdog. The easiest pick in this fight would be over 2.5 rounds; both are very hard to finish, and I expect a closely contested decision. Picking a winner in this one is practically a coin flip, so I’ll play it safe and pick the favorite here in Tsarukyan.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Tsarukyan -190#3 Jared Cannonier vs. #7 Sean Strickland
Middleweight Bout
Jared Cannonier: 15-6-0, 10 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Sean Strickland: 25-4-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Two excellent strikers collide in a significant bout for the middleweight division. Cannonier has found victory in three of his last five fights and has wins over former UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva (34-11-0), #9 ranked middleweight Jack Hermansson (23-8-0), and #12 ranked middleweight Kelvin Gastelum (17-8-0). Cannonier has fought at both heavyweight and light heavyweight in his career and carries that heavyweight power at middleweight. Cannonier throws everything with fight-ending intentions, constantly pressuring forward and willing to eat a shot to land one. Cannonier has excellent footwork and regularly switches stances, typically setting up his combinations with his jab. Training at MMA LAB, Cannonier is excellent at moving in and out of the pocket and usually won’t stay at range for long but will throw damaging leg kicks when outside of the pocket. What he lacks in volume, he makes up for in power, and his pace increases as the fight continues. Cannonier is unlikely to take the fight to the mat but can land devastating ground and pound if he gets top position. Sean Strickland has four of his last five fights, with impressive wins over Uriah Hall (18-10-0), Krzysztof Jotko (23-5-0), and Brendan Allen (17-5-0). Strickland is well known for his striking, as well as for his tendency to talk trash throughout fights. His trash talk usually frustrates his opponents while being outstruck and picked apart. While “Tarzan” prefers to keep the fight standing, he will often mix some grappling with his striking, averaging just over one takedown per fight. He also has shown pretty solid takedown defense in his career, defending 85% of takedowns attempted on him. Strickland rarely pursues submissions, preferring to get the work done with his powerful hands. Strickland uses a very upright boxing style on the feet, constantly moving forward and throwing combinations. While he always pursues the knockout, he doesn’t overextend himself, usually remaining technical and composed even in firefights. Training at Millenia MMA, Strickland seems almost Terminator-like with his constant forward movement. He tries to keep his opponent on the back foot as much as possible to open up opportunities to land combinations, especially his one-two. This is a pick ‘em fight, with both fighters sitting at -110. The odds are that way for a reason; this is a very close fight. These fighters are pretty close skill-wise, with the biggest difference being Cannonier’s power advantage, which I believe is significant. Due to this, I’m taking Cannonier moneyline and under 4.5 rounds.
Picks: Cannonier -110, Under 4.5 rounds