UFC 284
Prelims
Josh Culibao vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan
Featherweight Bout
Josh Culibao: 10-1-1, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Melsik Baghdasaryan: 7-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
An excellent matchup of exciting strikers; this should be a war on the feet. Culibao has won three of his last five outings with one draw and has wins over Seung-Woo Choi (10-6-0) and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-10-0). Culibao is a technical striker who is constantly feinting and moving and throws every shot with power. He tends to throw in combination, with his best punch being his right straight, but he also has a solid kicking game. Training at Igor MMA, Culibao has excellent footwork and head movement, often darting into the pocket to land a combination before returning to range. He is patient and won’t overextend, but he constantly pursues a finish and will often increase his pace as the fight continues. Culibao has shown solid cardio in the UFC, carries the same power and speed across all 15 minutes, and has landed three knockdowns in his four fights with the promotion. Culibao has not attempted a takedown in the UFC but has defended 82% of takedowns tried on him. He holds a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, so he has grappling capabilities. Baghdasaryan has won all his last five outings, with his UFC victories coming over Collin Anglin (8-5-0) and Bruno Souza (10-3-0). Baghdasaryan is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 9-2 and even challenged for a K-1 World Title before coming to MMA. Unsurprisingly he is an excellent striker with serious power in his punches and kicks. Baghdasaryan is always coming forward and never telegraphs his shots and does a great job of varying his shots, attacking the head and body evenly. Training at Glendale Fighting Club, what he lacks in volume, he makes up for in power, although he does usually supply his opponent with a healthy dose of leg kicks. Baghdasaryan is very defensively sound, with him, on average, landing nearly double as many shots as he absorbs. He is a very aggressive striker and always pursues a finish, throwing plenty of looping punches and spinning kicks. Like his opponent, Baghdasaryan has not attempted a takedown in the UFC but has exhibited both solid takedown defense (76%) and good clinch striking. Culibao is a very slight favorite at -115, with Baghdasaryan coming in at -105. I expect a finish in this fight, so under 2.5 rounds is a safe bet. Both guys have similar skills and styles, but I think Baghdasaryan is a bit more technical and has an advantage in both power and striking experience, so I’ll take him to win this one by knockout.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Baghdasaryan -105Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas
Light Heavyweight Bout
Tyson Pedro: 9-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Modestas Bukauskas: 13-5-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
In this bout, two strikers with knockout ability collide in the octagon. Pedro has won three of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over #13 ranked light heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. (12-5-0) and #10 ranked light heavyweight Paul Craig (16-6-1). Pedro is a devastating striker with serious power in everything he throws. He has an excellent range of kicks, particularly damaging head and leg kicks, which he’ll set up through constant feinting and movement. Pedro has great speed for the division and is very skilled at using his length, often landing damage from distance. While he won’t often initiate grappling exchanges, Pedro is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and possesses a solid submission and takedown game. Training at Lions High Performance Centre, Pedro is patient and technical, never rushing in or overextending on his shots. He has excellent knees and varies his shots, attacking the head and body evenly. While he won’t often put out much volume in terms of strikes, he makes up for it with one-shot knockout power. Bukauskas has won two of his last five bouts, with his UFC victory coming over Andreas Michailidis (13-6-0). He is a technical kickboxer in perpetual motion, always feinting and making great use of his footwork. He has a solid arsenal of kicks and will often do most of his damage from range, only coming inside to let combinations go. Bukauskas throws power in everything but is an accurate striker, throwing every shot with purpose. He is at his best when coming forward and controlling the distance. Training at Gintas Combat, Bukauskas favors a slower-paced, technical kickboxing match and has not attempted a takedown in his UFC tenure. He has defended 100% of takedowns tried on him in the UFC and has an excellent ability to land elbows on opponents shooting in, scoring multiple finishes from that position. Pedro is the -240 favorite, with Bukauskas returning a +200 underdog. Both have similar styles and backgrounds, but I think the most significant difference between them is power and speed, and I believe Pedro has both of those advantages. I’m going to take Pedro by knockout and under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Pedro by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 roundsMain Card
Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield
Light Heavyweight Bout
Jimmy Crute: 12-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Alonzo Menifield: 13-3-0, 10 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Two men who rarely see a second round face off in this bout. Crute has won two of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over #10 ranked light heavyweight Paul Craig (16-6-1), Michal Oleksiejczuk (18-5-0), and my dad, Sam Alvey (33-18-1). He has heavy hands and kicks on the feet, throwing every shot with power. He does an excellent job of managing distance, often picking his opponent apart at range with various attacks. Crute has not seen a second round in six fights, and eleven of his 15 fights have ended in round one. He is an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and will often shoot for takedowns early. Training at Greco and Stewie’s House, Crute is averaging nearly five takedowns landed per fight and is a tenacious wrestler, often chaining takedowns together. He has excellent top control and transitions quickly on the ground, averaging two submission attempts per fight, and has two wins by Kimura in the UFC. Menifield has won four of his last five contests, with his best wins coming over Misha Cirkunov (15-9-0) and Ed Herman (27-15-0). He is an explosive striker with serious power in both hands and constantly pursues a finish. He throws lots of looping shots and overhands and can do damage from anywhere, whether at distance or in the pocket. He has excellent leg kicks and is capable of landing damage even when moving backward, making him dangerous at all times. Menifeld has ten first-round finishes with four knockouts scored with under ten punches landed, proving he’s at his most dangerous early. He averages just under a takedown landed per fight and can land devastating ground and pound if he secures top position. He has heavy top pressure and two first-round submissions, one of which being a von flue choke over Fabio Cherant (7-4-0). Menifield does fade as the fight continues, with all of his finishes coming before the third round and 2 of his three career losses coming via decision. Crute is the favorite at -190, with Menifield the +160 underdog. While Menifield is a serious threat on the feet, I expect Crute to shoot for a takedown early and dominate on the ground. I’ll take Crute by submission and under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Crute by Sub., Under 2.5 roundsJack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown
Welterweight Bout
Jack Della Maddalena: 13-2-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Randy Brown: 16-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Two rising stars will face off in a significant bout for the future of the welterweight division. Maddalena hasn’t lost a bout in 7 years and has UFC wins over Danny Roberts (18-7-0), Ramazan Emeev (20-6-0), and Ange Loosa (9-3-0). Maddalena is an excellent striker with technical boxing and bricks for hands who carries power going forward and backward. On average, he lands twice as many strikes as he absorbs, using great distance management and head movement. He throws everything in combination and is excellent at changing levels, attacking the head and body evenly. Maddalena is one of the most defensively sound strikers who always keeps his guard high and tight and has defended 71% of strikes thrown at him. Training at Scrappy MMA, he fights behind his jab and often strings together long, seven or 8-piece combinations that badly damage his opponent. While he won’t usually go to the ground, he’s shown great scrambles, takedown defense, and an ability to escape very deep waters. Brown has won 4 of his last five fights, with wins over Jared Gooden (20-7-0), Alex Oliveira (22-12-1), and Bryan Barberena (17-8-0). Brown is a tall welterweight at 6’3 and makes excellent use of it, throwing combinations at range, often putting body kicks at the end of his punches. Brown has a boxing background; he can throw 4 or 5 punch combinations without getting wild and with solid accuracy, but he also has dangerous kicks. Despite only having two KOs in his six-year UFC tenure, Brown has proven he has knockout power on multiple occasions and can also land severe damage in the clinch. Averaging just below a takedown a fight, Brown will mix in grappling with his slick striking and does a great job of using his length in the clinch to control his opponent and take them to the mat. If the fight goes to the ground, Brown has a good submission game and some great chokes, with 4 of his five career submissions coming via some kind of choke. Training at Kings MMA, Brown’s willingness to exchange on the feet has hurt him before, having been knocked out twice in the UFC, and has also struggled to defend leg kicks and is at his best when he can use his length at range. Maddalena is the favorite at -330, with Brown the +260 underdog. Under 2.5 rounds is a lock; I’d be shocked if this went to a decision. I have to admit my bias; Maddalena is my favorite prospect for 2023. Regardless, he’s much more technically skilled than Brown, and I think he’ll overwhelm him on the feet, so I’ll take Maddalena by knockout.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Maddalena by KO/TKO#2 Yair Rodriguez vs. #5 Josh Emmett
Interim Featherweight Title Bout
Yair Rodriguez: 15-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Josh Emmett: 18-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
In this fight, we’ll see two of the best fighters in the world compete for an interim title. Rodriguez has won three of his last five outings with one no-contest and has wins over #3 ranked featherweight Brian Ortega (15-3-0), #6 ranked featherweight Chan Sung Jung (17-7-0), and #15 ranked featherweight Alex Caceres (20-13-0). Rodriguez is one of the most diverse strikers in the UFC, possessing an insane arsenal of kicks and flashy attacks. He throws everything with immense speed and attacks from different angles, constantly moving and switching stances. He usually leads with his kicks before letting his hands go, picking his opponent apart at range before entering the pocket to throw combinations. Rodriguez has excellent distance management and timing and never slows down, consistently putting out a substantial volume of strikes. Training at Valle Flow Striking, he has excellent clinch striking and some of the most devastating elbows in MMA. He won’t usually take the fight to the mat, but he has a great submission game and is dangerous off his back. Emmett has won all of his last five bouts and holds wins over #7 ranked featherweight Calvin Kattar (23-7-0), #13 ranked featherweight Dan Ige (16-6-0), and Hinsdale Central legend Ricardo Lamas (20-8-0). Emmett is an explosive striker, possessing the most powerful punches in the featherweight division. He loves to brawl inside the pocket and throw vicious overhands, throwing everything with massive power. He’s patient and looks for openings but is constantly pursuing a finish and willing to eat a shot to land one. Training at Team Alpha Male, Emmett is averaging 98 strikes landed in his last three fights and has shown he carries his power across 15 minutes. He’s also defensively sound, with just 37% of strikes attempted on him landing. He is an excellent wrestler with a great takedown game and heavy top pressure, but he often prefers to keep the fight standing. Rodriguez is the -190 favorite, with Emmett returning the +160 underdog. This is a brutal fight to predict; I could see either winning by finish or decision. While Emmett has a definite power advantage, I think the speed and range management should earn him a victory here. I’ll take Rodriguez moneyline and over 2.5 rounds, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a finish in this one.
Picks: Rodriguez -190, Over 2.5 rounds(C) Islam Makhachev vs. (C, FW) Alexander Volkanovski
Lightweight Title Bout
Islam Makhachev: 23-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Alexander Volkanovski: 25-1-0, 12 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
This is easily one of the craziest super fights ever made, and one you absolutely cannot miss. Islam Makhachev has won all of his last five bouts, with his best wins coming over former UFC lightweight champion Charles Olivera (33-9-0), #11 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker (21-11-0), and #14 ranked lightweight Drew Dober (26-11-0). Makhachev, like his coach and training partner Khabib Nurmagomedov, is a dominant wrestler who could submit you or ground and pound you to find a finish. Makhachev has won four of his last five fights by submission, with the most recent coming in the second round, showing a significant improvement in urgency. Training at AKA, Makhachev prefers grappling but is capable of striking as well, throwing with 59% accuracy on the feet as well as defending 65% of shots thrown at him. Makhachev averages over three takedowns landed per fight and makes his wrestling background very apparent, using the now-famous Dagestani style of controlling and dominating his opponent against the cage. The last place you want to be against Makhachev is on the bottom, as he will relentlessly pursue the finish from the top and can easily control an opponent for five rounds if he can’t get them out of there. Volkanovski has won all of his last five outings and has wins over former champion, and #1 ranked featherweight Max Holloway (23-7-0), Chad Mendes (18-5-0), as well as former featherweight champion Jose Aldo (31-8-0). He is an excellent technical striker with serious power in both hands and devastating leg kicks. He’s accurate, throws every shot with purpose, and quickly moves in and out of the pocket. He never telegraphs his attacks and is defensively sound, defending 66% of strikes attempted on him. While defensively sound, he’s willing to eat a shot to land one and will brawl in the pocket. Training at City Kickboxing, he has excellent cardio and is constantly pressuring forward, putting up an average of 169 strikes landed in his last five fights. He also averages nearly two takedowns landed per fight, is a great wrestler with heavy top pressure and outstanding control in the clinch and has shown an incredible ability to escape submissions. Makhachev is a -400 favorite, with Volkanovski the +310 underdog. I know Volkanovski is coming up a weight class, but making him that big of an underdog is ludicrous and too good of odds not to pursue. I have to take Volkanovski moneyline and under 4.5 rounds, which is a much safer bet. I think Volkanovski has the wrestling ability to keep the fight standing where he has a massive advantage, and I believe he can secure a finish.
Picks: Under 4.5 rounds, Volkanovski +310