UFC 285

Main Card

Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett

Middleweight Bout

Bo Nickal: 3-0-0. 1 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Jamie Pickett: 13-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

In this bout, one of the most highly touted UFC prospects makes his promotional debut. Nickal is undefeated in his career, having picked up two wins over Donovan Beard (7-2-0) and Zachary Borrego (4-1-0) on Dana White’s Contender Series. Nickal is a former three-time NCAA D1 collegiate wrestling champion who is very comfortable in the octagon despite his inexperience in MMA. Unsurprisingly, he is an excellent grappler who will shoot early and secure an advantageous position very quickly. He transitions at lightning speed on the ground and pursues submissions immediately once the fight hits the mat, using excellent top control to secure a finish. While we haven’t seen much of his striking, Nickal has shown solid power in his hands and does a great job using his striking to set up his wrestling. Training at American Top Team, all three of his fights have ended in under 2 minutes, with him holding just 2 minutes and 27 seconds of cage time in his professional career. Pickett has won two of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Joseph Holmes (8-2-0) and Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0). Pickett tends to come out a little slow, often taking time to find his range and timing before engaging. He primarily throws straights, usually only throwing hooks when he’s in the pocket, and often blitzes forward with big combinations. Although he starts slow, he has solid cardio, often picking up the pace in the later stages of the fight when his opponent begins to fade. Pickett is willing to grapple but mainly seems to do so when he’s losing the striking battle and is more than willing to clinch against the cage for long periods. Training at Port City Sports Performance, he is a lengthy striker who’s at his best when controlling the center of the octagon and using his reach. “The Night Wolf” has a solid arsenal of kicks, particularly at range, but favors his hands more, often throwing out naked kicks with no setup. Nickal is the biggest favorite on the card by a significant margin, coming in at -1600, with Pickett returning the +900 underdog. Don’t get me wrong, Bo Nickal should win this fight, but those odds are ludicrous, and I highly suggest staying away from the moneyline. I’m going to take Nickal by submission and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Nickal by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

#7 Mateusz Gamrot vs. #10 Jalin Turner

Lightweight Bout

Mateusz Gamrot: 21-2-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Jalin Turner: 13-5-0, 9 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Two well-rounded fighters collide in the octagon in this matchup. Gamrot has won 4 of his last five bouts, with his best victories coming over #8 ranked lightweight Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0), Jeremy Stephens (29-20-0), and Diego Ferreira (17-5-0). Like his opponent, he is an incredibly well-rounded fighter and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. When striking, he’s constantly moving and staying at range, remaining patient, and picking his shots. What he lacks in volume, he makes up for in power, throwing every shot with knockout intentions. Training at American Top Team, Gamrot is averaging over four takedowns landed per fight and has defended 90% of takedowns attempted on him. He is an excellent wrestler, refusing to give up on takedowns and never staying still on the ground, whether on top or bottom. A former KSW champion, “Gamer” has excellent cardio, seemingly always moving on the ground or his feet. Turner has won all his last five outings via finish, with his best wins coming over Brad Riddell (10-4-0) and Josh Culibao (11-1-1). He’s an excellent striker who usually fights in an upright stance and throws everything in combination. He constantly pursues a finish but remains patient, never overextending or telegraphing attacks. Turner has power in both hands and is very fluid on the feet, easily chaining attacks together and using a great variety of strikes. Training at Carlson Gracie Riverside, he’s averaging over one takedown landed per 15 minutes and has an impressive submission game, with three wins by submission in his last five fights. He’s as active on the ground as on the feet and constantly tries to improve position or find a finish. Turner is a huge lightweight, standing at 6’3, and uses his length by fighting at range and damaging his opponent without getting hit. He has serious speed and power in both hands and has shown solid cardio, making him dangerous at any time. Gamrot is the favorite at -220, with Turner the underdog at +180. This fight comes down to who can do their specialty better; Gamrot has the advantage in grappling, whereas Turner has the edge in striking. I believe Gamrot is a significant jump in competition for Turner and will prove too much too soon, and I expect Gamrot to pick up the win. I’m going to take under 2.5 rounds and Gamrot moneyline.

Picks: Gamrot -220, Under 2.5 rounds

#7 Geoff Neal vs. #9 Shavkat Rakhmonov

Welterweight Bout

Geoff Neal: 15-4-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Shavkat Rakhmonov: 16-0-0, 8 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

A pair of quickly rising contenders meet in this bout. Neal has won three of his last five outings and holds wins over #4 ranked welterweight Belal Muhammad (22-3-0), #9 ranked welterweight Vicente Luque (21-9-1), and the “Nigerian Nightmare'“ Mike Perry (14-8-0). He has serious power in his hands and throws everything in combination, usually fighting behind his jab. While he is an aggressive striker, he remains technical, keeping his punches tight and straight and his guard high. Neal is defensively sound, has excellent head movement, and has defended 60% of significant strikes attempted on him in the UFC. Training at Fortis MMA, he does a great job of varying his shots and attacking from different angles, but his best punch by far is his left straight. He holds a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has shown some decent wrestling, with a takedown defense percentage of 85%. Neal has proven to have solid cardio, carrying the same speed and power across all 15 minutes. Rakhmonov is undefeated and holds UFC wins over #12 ranked welterweight Neil Magny (27-11-0), Carlston Harris (17-5-0), and Alex Oliveira (23-13-1). Rakhmonov is in constant motion, constantly pressuring forward, but fights patiently and never telegraphs his shots. In his four fights with the promotion, he’s yet to eat more than 11 significant strikes in a single fight, averaging about one strike absorbed per minute. He holds the rank of Master of Sport in Combat Sambo and has won every fight of his career via finish, with only a single bout going to a third round. Rakhmonov is an excellent grappler with great takedowns, clinch striking, and a slick submission game. All eight submission wins have come via some choke, so they're in serious trouble if he gets a hold of his opponent’s neck. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Rakhmonov is a highly technical fighter but also will throw some flashy strikes, particularly a devastating spinning heel kick. Rakhmonov is a -550 favorite, with Neal the +400 underdog. While not particularly shocked by these odds, I feel like it’s disrespectful to Neal, and I think this fight could be much closer than many expect. Still, I expect Rakhmonov to secure a finish, so I’m taking Rakhmonov by submission and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Rakhmonov by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

(C) Valentina Shevchenko vs. #6 Alexa Grasso

Women’s Flyweight Title Bout

Valentina Shevchenko: 23-3-0, 8 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Alexa Grasso: 15-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

In this fight, one of the most dominant champions seeks to defend her title again. Shevchenko hasn’t lost in 6 years and holds victories over #2 ranked flyweight Taila Santos (19-2-0), #4 ranked flyweight Jessica Andrade (24-10-0), and #5 ranked flyweight Katlyn Chookagian (18-5-0). She holds black belts in Taekwondo and Judo and the rank of Master of Sports in Judo, Muay Thai, Kickboxing, and Boxing. She is one of the best strikers in the sport, always throws in combination, and has excellent power and speed in her hands and kicks. Training at Tiger Muay Thai, Shevchenko does a great job of evenly varying her shots, attacking the head, body, and legs. She’s averaged about four takedowns landed per fight in her last five outings and has excellent top control, ground and pound, and chokes. Everything she does is fast, and she is fantastic at managing distance, never staying in the pocket long enough to get hit. In her last five fights, Shevchenko has averaged about 62 significant strikes landed compared to approximately 26 significant strikes absorbed. Grasso has won four of her last five bouts and has wins over #8 ranked flyweight Viviane Araujo (11-4-0), and #12 ranked flyweight Maycee Barber (11-2-0). She is an excellent technical boxer who throws everything in combination and with purpose. She’s aggressive but not wild, staying technical and using great timing and accuracy to damage her opponents. Grasso is willing to eat one to land one and is dangerous inside the pocket, but they also have solid head movement. She holds a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has landed 57% of the takedowns she’s attempted in the UFC. On top, she’s active and has solid ground and pound, and she found her first win via submission in a first-round victory over Joanna Wood (15-8-0) last year. Grasso is a volume striker with excellent cardio, always fighting behind her jab and setting up her combinations. Shevchenko is a significant favorite at -800, with Grasso, the underdog, at +550. Despite Shevchenko looking rather human in her last outing, I think this will be a return to form for her, and I expect a dominant victory. I’ll take Shevchenko by knockout and under 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Shevchenko by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 rounds

Jon Jones vs. #1 Ciryl Gane

Heavyweight Title Bout

Jon Jones: 26-1-0, 10 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Ciryl Gane: 11-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

In the main event, we’ll see the GOAT return against one of the most dangerous heavyweights in MMA. Jones is undefeated (excluding his bogus DQ loss), and holds wins over former champions Daniel Cormier (22-3-0), Glover Teixeira (33-9-0), and Shogun Hua (27-14-1). On the feet, he throws everything with power and is excellent at managing distance, absorbing just 36% of strikes thrown at him. He does a great job of controlling the center of the cage and varies his shots constantly, attacking both the head and body. Training at Jackson’s MMA, Jones has some of the most devastating elbows in MMA and never telegraphs his attacks. He stays technical across all five rounds and has proven his cardio, having not been in anything but a title fight since 2011. He averages nearly two takedowns landed per fight and has heavy top control and ground and pound. He is also a great defensive wrestler, having defended 95% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Jones also has excellent head movement and doesn’t often take much damage, on average landing nearly twice as many significant strikes as he absorbs.  Ciryl Gane has won four of his last five bouts, with wins over #8 ranked Alexander Volkov (34-9-0), former UFC heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos (21-9-0), and an interim heavyweight title win over #11 ranked Derrick Lewis (26-8-0). Gane is one of the most technical strikers we’ve ever seen in the heavyweight division, using excellent Muay Thai to damage his opponents. Training at MMA Factory, he can throw various strikes from punches, kicks, knees, and elbows and throws all those with power. While he’s become known for his striking, he also has solid grappling, having two submission wins in the UFC, including a heel hook. I’d say his wrestling and BJJ are relatively equal; he has solid takedowns and top control and can do a lot of damage with his ground and pound or submit his opponent. He’s willing to exchange in the pocket but is also excellent at range, throwing plenty of high and low kicks and crisp combinations with his hands. Jones is the favorite at -180, with Gane the +155 underdog. Despite a three-year layoff, I still believe Jones should win this fight. Given how Gane was dominated by Francis Ngannou’s wrestling and his admitting to not training between fights, I can’t imagine his wrestling has improved enough to match Jones. I will take Jones by decision and over 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Jones -180, Over 4.5 rounds