UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
Sean Strickland throws a right hand at Nassourdine Imavov. Credit: BVM Sports.
In an unusual matchup, we’ll see top middleweight contender Sean Strickland take on Abus Magomedov in his second UFC bout. Beyond that, the main card is packed with finishers and rising stars like Ismael Bonfim, Michael Morales, and Grant Dawson. This card very well could be a big showcase for future talent; hopefully, we won’t see much involvement from the judges.
Brunno Ferreira vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
Bruno Ferreira lands a knee on Gregory Rodrigues. Credit: Zuffa LLC.
Middleweight Bout
Bruno Ferreira: 10-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Nursulton Ruziboev: 34-8-2, 12 KO/TKO, 20 Sub.
Ferreira is undefeated and is making his second promotional outing following an upset KO victory over Gregory Rodrigues (13-5-0). He is an explosive striker with one-shot knockout power. He’s constantly feinting, switching stances, looking for openings, and attacking from different angles. Ferreira has finished all ten wins, with just two of his career outings seeing a second round. Training at Evolucao Thai, he prefers power to volume and has great head movement and big-time power in both hands. Although patient, he will throw out risky maneuvers like Superman punches and spinning kicks. He is willing to grapple and often takes the fight to the mat via vicious slam takedowns before unleashing hellacious ground-and-pound. He’s very active on the ground and will never accept position, constantly trying to advance and secure a finish. Ruziboev makes his promotional debut on an eight-fight win streak, with all those wins coming via first-round finish. On the feet, he throws a lot of single shots but with plenty of power and loves to throw flashy spinning kicks. He’s always pressuring forward and will often pursue takedowns early, often using his wild offense to set up his wrestling. Ruziboev has a dangerous submission game and can finish the fight on top and his back. He’s highly active on the ground and never stops moving, but he is much more of a wild man than a technician and can put himself in bad spots. Training at Renzo Gracie Philly, he’s always looking to finish the fight, often choosing not to defend takedowns to pursue a kimura instead. Ruziboev has heavy ground-and-pound and is excellent at changing grappling positions, especially reversing position from bottom to top. Ferreira is the favorite at -182, making Ruziboev the +147 underdog. This is a tough fight to predict since neither has much, if any, UFC experience. I will take under 2.5 rounds; I’d be surprised to see this go to the judges. As for a winner, I’ll take Ferreira. He has vastly more technical striking and is a capable grappler, so if Ruziboev can’t get the fight to the mat early, it might be a short night.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Ferreira -184Ismael Bonfim vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
Benoit Saint Denis throws a jab at Gabriel Miranda. Credit: MMA Mania.
Lightweight Bout
Ismael Bonfim: 19-3-0, 9 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Benoit Saint-Denis: 10-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Bonfim enters this bout on a 13-fight win streak, with his UFC debut victory coming over Terrance McKinney (13-5-0). Bonfim is an exceptional striker with great technical boxing and fantastic range management. He does a great job of varying his shots, attacking the head and body evenly, and constantly pursuing a finish. He’s willing to brawl inside the pocket, has devastating knees, and throws everything in combination. Bonfim is extremely explosive and always coming forward, often looking to land countershots. Training at Cerrado MMA, he has great cardio and can throw with power and volume, never gassing himself out or overextending. He has a solid chin and has never been knocked out but typically won’t take much damage, using his footwork and head movement to remain unharmed. Bonfim is at his best when dictating the pace and controlling the center of the octagon, searching for counters and fight-ending shots. Saint-Denis has won four of his last five outings, holding UFC wins over Niklas Stolze (12-6-0) and Gabriel Miranda (16-6-0). On the feet, he is constantly pressuring forward with heavy kicks and throwing bombs. He throws everything with fight-ending intentions and uses his striking to get inside and pursue takedowns. He is an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in Judo, a brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and a great variety of submissions on his record. Training at Woirin Team Elite, Saint-Denis typically secures takedowns quickly and has heavy top control, always choosing position over submission and rarely putting himself in risky spots. Whether on the feet or the mat, he’s always trying to end the fight and is always dangerous. A decorated veteran and former Special Forces paratrooper, he’s incredibly tough and has possibly the best chin in the lightweight division. Bonfim is the biggest favorite on the main card at -320, with Saint-Denis returning a +250 underdog. These odds speak much more to the hype behind Bonfim than a gap in skills. While I believe Bonfim has a massive advantage on the feet, Saint-Denis is super durable and hard to finish, so Bonfim could be in trouble if he ends up on bottom. Bonfim has the striking skills and takedown defense to get it done, so I’ll take him moneyline. I’m hesitant to take under 2.5 rounds with Saint-Denis’s adamantium chin, but I think it’s worth the risk.
Picks: Bonfim -320, Under 2.5 roundsAriane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto
Ariane Lipski wrenches on a kneebar on Luana Carolina. Credit: ESPN.
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Ariane Lipski: 15-8-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Melissa Gatto: 8-1-2, 2 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Lipski has won two of her last five bouts and holds wins over JJ Aldrich (11-6-0), Mandy Bohm (8-2-0), and Luana Carolina (8-4-0). She is a classic Muay Thai striker with constant forward pressure, great clinch striking, and always throws in combination. She does an excellent job of varying her shots, often opening combos with a body jab before attacking upstairs. Lipski has great footwork and typically holds the center of the octagon, keeping her opponent on their heels. Training with Team Nunes, she remains technical across all 15 minutes and often looks to counter-strike, waiting for her opponent to open up before unleashing combinations. She’s willing to grapple and has great defensive wrestling, with 73% takedown defense and a fantastic ability to reverse attempts and land on top. She has solid top pressure on the mat and will focus on position over submission, rarely putting herself in harm’s way. Lipski is at her best in a technical striking battle where she can hold the center and control the pace. Gatto has won three of her last five outings with one draw and has UFC victories over Victoria Leonardo (9-6-0) and Sijara Eubanks (8-7-0). She’s a grappler who will shoot in early and often uses her excellent clinch control to secure takedowns in close. On top, she remains patient and technical, mostly focusing on submissions and not throwing much ground-and-pound. Training at MSP, Gatto is lengthy and makes great use of it on the mat, easily transitioning between positions and controlling her opponent. She’s very dangerous off her back, perpetually pursuing a finish and moving from position to position. She’s rather uncomplicated on the feet, largely throwing 1-2 combos and leg kicks. She has some decent power in her hands but usually won’t spend much time at distance. Gatto is the favorite at -230, with Lipski the +190 underdog. This fight will be decided by who does their specialty better; if it stays standing, Lipski has an advantage, while Gatto has the upper hand on the mat. I think Lipski is the more well-rounded fighter and has great takedown defense, so I’m taking her moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Lipski +190, Over 2.5 roundsMax Griffin vs. Michael Morales
Michael Morales cracks Adam Fugitt with a hook. Credit: FanSided.
Welterweight Bout
Max Griffin: 19-9-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Michael Morales: 14-0-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Griffin has found victory in four of his last five outings, with wins over Carlos Condit (32-14-0), Song Kenan (18-7-0), and Tim Means (32-15-1). He constantly moves on his feet, often staying at range and throwing low kicks. He tends to favor his right hand, throwing bombs regularly. He doesn’t put out crazy volume but isn’t a slow fighter either, averaging about 59 significant strikes landed in his last five fights. Training with MMAGold Fight Team, Griffin is at his best when he’s throwing first and coming forward. He has one-shot knockout power in both hands and has decent cardio, maintaining his pace throughout the fight. Griffin has a solid takedown game, averaging over one takedown landed per UFC fight, and has good defensive wrestling. Morales comes into this fight undefeated, with UFC victories over Adam Fugitt (9-4-0) and Trevin Giles (16-4-0). He’s a technical kickboxer who remains patient and waits for openings to damage his opponent. He throws everything in combination and does a great job setting things up with his jab. Morales often blitzes forward to throw long, devastating hooks and straights, then quickly returns to range. Training at Entram Gym, he’s a solid grappler and very strong in the clinch. He’s also shown great calmness when put in tough spots as well as great defense off his back. When on top, he’ll typically resort to ground-and-pound in his pursuit of a finish. Morales is the favorite at -250, with Griffin the +205 underdog. This is undoubtedly the biggest test of Morales’ young career; Griffin is an experienced striker who’s only been finished once. I believe Morales has the skills to get the win and quite possibly a knockout as well if he can keep it standing. I’ll take Morales by knockout and under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Morales by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds#12 Damir Ismagulov vs. #15 Grant Dawson
Damir Ismagulov exchanges blows with Guram Kutateladze. Credit: Sherdog.
Lightweight Bout
Damir Ismagulov: 24-2-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Grant Dawson: 19-1-1, 4 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.
Ismagulov has won four of his five preceding bouts, with wins over Guram Kutateladze (12-3-0), Rafael Alves (20-12-0), and Thiago Moises (17-6-0). He is an aggressive striker with excellent range management and head movement. In his UFC career, he’s outstruck all his opponents, averaging about 57 strikes landed compared to about 38 absorbed. He has fast hands, powerful kicks, and constantly pressures forward, often busting his opponent up with his jab. Training at Boets MMA, he varies his shots well, attacking the body and head evenly. Ismagulov has excellent footwork and does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket without taking damage. Ismagulov has great takedowns and excellent top control, constantly throwing ground-and-pound when on top. He has fantastic takedown defense, having defended 75% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Dawson is undefeated in his promotion tenure, holding victories over Jared Gordon (19-6-0), Leonardo Santos (18-7-1), and Julian Erosa (28-12-0). He is an excellent grappler and is most comfortable on the mat, often shooting early and easily gaining takedowns. He’s averaging around three takedowns landed per fight in his UFC career and has great control, especially on the back. He’s very active on the ground, always pursuing a finish. Of his 13 career submissions, 11 are rear-naked chokes, so Dawson is incredibly dangerous if he can get his opponent’s neck. Dawson throws everything with power on the feet and stays behind his jab, often not moving around too much. Training at American Top Team, he has decent head movement and usually doesn’t get hit too much, but he isn’t a very complex striker and will largely throw basic combinations. This is a true Pick ‘em, with both men coming in at -110. These odds make a lot of sense; both are incredibly high level and very well could be in title contention soon. While they stack up pretty evenly, the biggest difference maker will be Ismagulov’s striking. He has a much more technical and evolved striking game than Dawson and can match his grappling, so I’ll take Ismagulov moneyline. I have no idea if there’s a finish in this bout, so I’m cautiously taking over 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Ismagulov -110, Over 2.5 rounds#7 Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov
Abus Magomedov lands a front kick on the chin of Dustin Stoltzfus. Credit: Zuffa LLC.
Middleweight Bout
Sean Strickland: 26-5-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Abus Magomedov: 25-4-1, 14 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Sean Strickland has won three of his last five fights, with wins over #10 ranked middleweight Jack Hermansson (23–8-0), #13 ranked middleweight Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0), and Uriah Hall (18-10-0). He is known for his striking prowess as well as for his tendency to talk trash throughout fights. While he prefers to keep the fight standing, he often mixes some grappling with his striking, averaging just over one takedown per 15 minutes. Strickland also has solid takedown defense, defending 85% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He rarely pursues submissions, typically resorting to ground-and-pound when on top. He uses a very upright boxing style on the feet, constantly moving forward and throwing combinations. While Strickland always pursues the knockout, he doesn’t overextend himself, usually remaining technical and composed, even in firefights. Training at Millenia MMA, he tries to keep his opponent on the back foot as much as possible to open up opportunities to land combinations: especially his one-two. Magomedov has won four of his last five bouts, making a splash with a 19-second KO victory over Dustin Stoltzfus (14-5-0) in his UFC debut. He is a lengthy striker who prefers power over volume, typically blasting his opponents with a barrage of kicks. He throws everything with fight-ending intentions and is at his most dangerous early, with 15 of his 20 finishes coming in round one. Magomedov is always pressuring forward and constantly switching stances, dealing damage to his opponent's body and head. He’s willing to grapple and is a solid wrestler, able to land his own takedowns and often reverse ones attempted on him to land on top. Training at UFD Gym, he transitions quickly on the ground and is active on top, always throwing ground-and-pound or pursuing a choke. Although this is his second bout in the UFC, he has big-fight experience, having made a run through the playoffs to the PFL middleweight championship in 2018. Strickland is a slight favorite at -150, with Magomedov the underdog at +125. This is easily the least informed I’ve been on a fighter in a main event, considering people usually don’t get main events in their second fight. Despite this, given Magomedov’s relative inactivity (3 fights since 2018) and lack of promotional experience, I have to give this one to Strickland. I think this fight will have a decently high pace, so I’ll take under 4.5 rounds, but wouldn’t be surprised to see the judges involved here.
Picks: Strickland -150, Under 4.5 rounds