UFC 294 Preview
Alexander Volkanovski lands a right hand on Yair Rodriguez. Credit: MMA Fighting.
This weekend, the UFC returns to Abu Dhabi for the first time in nearly a year with an explosive card. Featherweight champion steps in on late notice to rematch Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Preceding this, former Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, also on late notice, will move up in weight to challenge red-hot Khamzat Chimaev in a bout to determine the next Middleweight title challenger. Every fight on this main card has significant implications for their weight classes, and each could turn out to be an all-time classic. Let’s take a look at all the main card fights this Saturday.
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafarov
Said Nurmagomedov lands a body kick on Raoni Barcelos. Credit: DraftKings Network.
Bantamweight Bout
Said Nurmagomedov: 17-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Muin Gafarov: 18-5-0, 10 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Nurmagomedov has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-5-0), Cody Stamann (21-6-1), and Ricardo Ramos (16-5-0). Don’t let the last name fool you; he’s a kick-first striker who loves to throw flashy, spinning attacks. He prefers power to volume and could end the fight with any single strike thrown. Although Nurmagomedov throws some unorthodox attacks, he always remains composed, keeps his guard high, and uses excellent footwork. Training at Xtreme Couture, he’s averaging over one takedown and one submission attempted per fight and sets up his grappling with his striking. Unsurprisingly, he has a wrestling base and is highly dangerous with both his ground and pound and submission game. Nurmagomedov does a fantastic job of evenly varying his shots, attacking both the head and body.
Muin Gafurov squares up to Reece McLaren. Credit:
Gafurov has won three of his last five outings and holds no UFC victories, with this being his second fight in the promotion. He’s a pressure fighter constantly coming forward, throwing looping hooks, and shooting for takedowns. Training at Kaizen MMA, he will often load up on shots and headhunt, always pursuing offense no matter where he is. Gafurov is more than willing to eat a shot to land one and seems at his best in a brawl. He often mixes takedowns into his striking and has excellent top control when on the mat. He can push a very high pace and has a granite chin, having never been finished in his professional career. Gafurov mainly uses his hands but has quick kicks and occasionally throws spinning attacks.
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Warlley Alves
Ikram Aliskerov celebrates his first-round knockout of Phil Hawes. Credit: Yahoo Sports.
Middleweight Bout
Ikram Aliskerov: 14-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Warlley Alves: 14-6-0, 4 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Aliskerov has won all his last five fights and has a UFC victory over Phil Hawes (12-5-0). He’s a well-rounded, technical fighter who pushes a consistent pace and is always dangerous. He never telegraphs his attacks, fights behind his jab, and throws everything in combination. Training with the KHK MMA Team, Aliskerov is a former world champion in Sambo and has excellent top control, typically holding half guard and landing brutal ground and pound. He passes quickly and has impressive reversals, often denying takedowns and ending up on top. He does most of his damage on the inside with his punches but has heavy kicks and well-timed knees. Aliskerov has one-shot knockout power and has finished four of his last five fights.
Warlley Alves lands ground and pound on Nordine Taleb. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Alves has won two of his last five fights and has victories over #2 ranked Welterweight Colby Covington (17-3-0), Mounir Lazzez (11-3-0), and Alan Jouban (17-7-0). He’s a wild, aggressive fighter who always comes out guns blazing. He throws every shot with knockout intentions and often drops his head and blitzes forward to throw big combinations. Training at Rizzo RVT, Alves was the winner of TUF Brazil 3 and is very unpredictable, with a slick submission game to back up his powerful striking. Four of his six career submissions have come via guillotine, so he’s incredibly dangerous if he can get a hold of his opponent’s neck. He pushes a very high pace and slows down as the fight continues, but is willing to eat a shot to land one and is at his best brawling inside the pocket. Alves tends to headhunt and always comes forward, fighting with a “kill or be killed” attitude.
#2 Magomed Ankalaev vs. #7 Johnny Walker
Magomed Ankalaev cracks Thiago Santos with a right hand. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Light Heavyweight Bout
Magomed Ankalaev: 18-1-1, 10 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Johnny Walker: 21-7-0, 16 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Ankalaev has won four of his last five fights with one draw and holds victories over #6 ranked Light Heavyweight Nikita Krylov (30-9-0), #8 ranked Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith (37-18-0), and #9 ranked Light Heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0). He holds the rank of Master of Sport in Combat Sambo and is a highly experienced grappler. Despite this, he only averages about one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and will often keep it on the feet. Ankalaev is very patient and often throws plenty of single shots, but he makes up for his lack of volume with massive power. He constantly presses forward and throws every shot with purpose, with his pace increasing as the fight continues. Training at Gorets, he holds the center well and often waits for openings or chances to counter before letting his hands go. When Ankalaev takes the fight to the mat, he is tough to shake off and throws vicious ground and pounds until he finds a finish.
Johnny Walker chokes out Ion Cutelaba. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Walker has won three of his last five fights and has wins over #8 ranked Light Heavyweight Anthony Smith (37-18-0), #10 ranked Light Heavyweight Ryan Spann (21-9-0), and #11 ranked Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5-0). With 18 knockouts in the first round, he’s clearly at his most dangerous early on. Over time, he’s become more technical, preferring to stay at range, primarily using his kicks to land damage. Walker is constantly moving and using feints and is at his best when moving forward and leading the fight, often struggling when put on the back foot. Despite initially being known for his recklessness, he doesn’t seem to have any interest in getting into brawls and is much better off in a technical kickboxing match than a wild scrap. Training at SBG Ireland, he is enormous at 6’6”, even for a Light Heavyweight, and uses his size and reach to keep out of his opponent’s range and land strikes. Although Walker won’t typically take it to the mat, he has a 100% takedown success rate and a solid submission game.
#1 (WW) Kamaru Usman vs. #4 (WW) Khamzat Chimaev
Kamaru Usman pops Colby Covington with a jab. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Middleweight Bout
Kamaru Usman: 20-3-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Khamzat Chimaev: 12-0-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Usman has won three of his last five bouts and has victories over #2 ranked Welterweight Colby Covington twice (17-3-0), #5 ranked UFC Welterweight Gilbert Burns (22-6-0), and #10 ranked Lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (32-15-0). He is one of the most impressive fighters of this decade, posting four consecutive Welterweight title defenses before being dethroned by Leon Edwards (21-3-0). Coming into the UFC after winning the 21st season of The Ultimate Fighter, he started his career as a dominant wrestler, using smothering pressure and ground and pound to find victories. Usman possesses some of the best defensive wrestling in MMA, having denied 97% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He has added some excellent boxing to complement his wrestling, possessing one of the best jabs in the business and some serious power in his hands. Training at ONX Sports, he is a significant problem anywhere the fight goes, able to find the finish on the feet and the ground with relative ease. Usman has impeccable cardio and can easily push a heavy pace across 25 minutes, let alone fifteen.
Khamzat Chimaev chokes out Li Jingliang. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Chimaev is undefeated and holds UFC wins over #5 ranked Welterweight Gilbert Burns (22-6-0), #13 ranked Welterweight Kevin Holland (25-10-0), and Li Jingliang (19-8-0). He is a prolific finisher, having only absorbed a single strike in his UFC career before the Burns fight. He has one-punch knockout power, is willing to eat a shot to land one, and is exceptionally well-rounded. Training at Allstars Training Center, Chimaev is a powerful wrestler, using devastating ground and pound and heavy top pressure to punish his opponent on the mat. He’s a lengthy fighter and makes excellent use of it, often landing power shots at range and using his striking to set up his wrestling attack. He’s never been taken down in the UFC and averages nearly four takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, almost always dictating where the fight occurs. Eight of Chimaev’s eleven finishes have come in the first round, and he’s only gone to one decision, making him constantly dangerous.
(C) Islam Makhachev vs. (C)(FW) Alexander Volkanovski
Islam Makhachev pursues a rear naked choke against Drew Dober. Credit: MMA Mania.
Lightweight Title Bout
Islam Makhachev: 24-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Alexander Volkanovski: 26-2-0, 13 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Islam Makhachev has won all of his last five bouts, with wins coming over former UFC Lightweight champion Charles Olivera (33-9-0), #9 ranked Lightweight Dan Hooker (23-12-0), and #15 ranked Lightweight Drew Dober (27-12-0). Like his coach and training partner, Khabib Nurmagomedov, he is a commanding wrestler who wastes little time taking it to the mat and pursuing a finish. Training at American Kickboxing Academy, he prefers grappling but can strike, landing with 62% accuracy on the feet and defending 61% of shots thrown at him. Makhachev averages over three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and makes his wrestling background very apparent, using the now-famous Dagestani style of controlling and dominating his opponent against the cage. The last place you want to be against him is on the bottom, as he will relentlessly pursue the finish from the top and can easily control an opponent for five rounds if he can’t get them out of there. He possesses top-notch cardio and can grapple or strike for twenty-five minutes, never truly being out of a fight. Makhachev hasn’t lost a fight in eight years and seems to improve and learn from every bout he takes.
Alexander Volkanovski lands a jab on Max Holloway. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Volkanovski has won four of his last five outings and has wins over #1 ranked Featherweight Max Holloway (25-7-0), #2 ranked Featherweight Yair Rodriguez (16-4-0), and #3 ranked Featherweight Brian Ortega (15-3-0). He is an excellent technical striker with serious power in both hands and devastating leg kicks. He’s highly accurate, throws every shot with purpose, and quickly moves in and out of the pocket without taking damage. Volkanovski never telegraphs his attacks and is defensively sound, defending 58% of strikes attempted on him. Although elusive, he’s willing to eat a shot to land one and will brawl inside the pocket. Training at City Kickboxing, he has excellent cardio and is constantly pressuring forward, putting up an average of 137 significant strikes landed in his last five fights. Volkanovski also averages nearly two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, has excellent wrestling with heavy top pressure, outstanding control in the clinch, and an incredible ability to escape submissions.
Best Bets
Ikram Aliskerov by Finish: This feels like an easier fight they’re giving to Aliskerov to build him up. With previously scheduled bouts against Paulo Costa and Nassourdine Imavov falling through, Alves is a far drop down the ladder from either. I expect Aliskerov to find a finish and find it quickly.
Magomed Ankalaev by Finish: I find it a bit puzzling how Johnny Walker even received this fight; his last win came over Anthony Smith, someone nowhere near the caliber of Ankalaev. You could argue that Ankalaev should be the champion currently after a close draw with Jan Blachowicz. Considering the fact that Walker has been finished in five of his seven losses and by no means has the best chin, I think Ankalaev can get it done before the final bell.
Makhachev vs. Volkanovski to Go the Distance: Although I usually like to have a money line pick for the main event, this is just too tough of a fight to pick one. With Volkanovski coming in on short notice and Islam preparing for a radically different fight, I have no idea what will happen in this fight. I can confidently expect this to go to a decision, mainly based on how closely contended the first fight was.
BONUS BET: Kamaru Usman Moneyline: I’m less willing to categorize this as a “best bet,” as it’s inherently risky, but the odds are just too good not to consider it. Kamaru Usman is rarely if ever, an underdog and seems to be getting counted out by the media already. This is ludicrous, considering he’s the competition he’s already faced and beaten in his career, and if anyone is going to end the Khamzat hype train, it’s Kamaru Usman.
