UFC 295 Preview
Jiri Prochazka cracks Dominick Reyes with a right hand. Credit: MMA Fighting.
This Saturday, one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the year finally hits the cage when Jiri Prochazka takes on Alex Pereira for the Light Heavyweight title. Two of the most exciting and beloved characters in MMA, it’s a fascinating clash of styles that should be incredible. In the co-main event, two quick-finishers, Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall, face off for Heavyweight Interim gold. The entire main card is packed with rising stars, important matchups, and trained killers looking to make a name for themselves on the big stage. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini
Diego Lopes attempts a kneebar on Movsar Evloev. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Featherweight Bout
Diego Lopes: 22-6-0, 8 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.
Pat Sabatini: 18-4-0, 2 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Lopes has won three of his last five fights, with his lone UFC victory coming over Gavin Tucker (13-3-0). A well-rounded scrapper, he throws every shot with knockout intentions and constantly seeks a finish. He has one-shot KO power on the feet and has excellent accuracy and timing. Lopes has fast, powerful kicks and tends to get wild with his striking. Training at Lobo Gym MMA, he has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is dangerous anywhere the fight goes. He has a vicious submission game on top and bottom, constantly transitioning and looking for openings. Lopes has excellent ground and pound on top, which he’ll often use to set up a submission.
Pat Sabatini lands ground and pound on TJ Laramie. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Sabatini has won four of his last five outings and has wins over TJ Laramie (13-5-0), Tucker Lutz (12-4-0), and Jammal Emmers (19-7-0). He is an excellent grappler with fantastic wrestling and a dangerous submission game. On average, he’s landing nearly four takedowns per fifteen minutes and tends to find takedowns in the clinch, but he can land them in open space. Sabatini has great top pressure when on top and is always working for a finish, often throwing ground and pound to open his opponent up for a submission. Training at Renzo Gracie Philly, he pushes a breakneck pace throughout the fight and is constantly pressuring his opponent on the mat and the feet. When striking, he’s always moving and throws everything in combination. Sabatini has six wins via rear naked choke and is very dangerous if he takes his opponent’s back.
#14 Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint Denis
Matt Frevola celebrates after finishing Drew Dober. Credit: MMA Mania.
Lightweight Bout
Matt Frevola: 11-3-1, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Benoit Saint Denis: 12-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Frevola has won three of his last five bouts and has wins over #11 ranked Lightweight Jalin Turner (13-7-0), #15 ranked Lightweight Drew Dober (27-12-0), and Ottman Azaitar (13-2-0). He is a wild striker who always comes out guns blazing and pushes a heavy pace from start to finish. He relentlessly pressures his opponents, is always willing to brawl in the pocket, and throws everything in combination with serious power. Frevola tends to headhunt but won’t telegraph his attacks, possessing very fast kicks and one-shot knockout power. Training with Serra-Longo Fight Team, he started his UFC tenure as more of a grappler, averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes. He has solid top pressure and devastating ground and pound but seems content lately with staying on his feet. All of Frevola’s knockout wins have come in round one, with him currently riding a three-fight KO streak, and he’s extremely dangerous early on.
Benoit Saint Denis is pulled off Gabriel Miranda after knocking him out. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Saint-Denis has won four of his last five outings with victories over Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0), Thiago Moises (17-7-0), and Niklas Stolze (12-6-0). On the feet, he is constantly pressuring forward with heavy kicks and throwing bombs. He throws everything with fight-ending intentions and uses his striking to get inside and pursue takedowns. He is an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in Judo, a brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and a great variety of submissions on his record. Training at Woirin Team Elite, Saint-Denis typically secures takedowns quickly and has heavy top control, always choosing position over submission and rarely putting himself in risky spots. Whether on the feet or the mat, he’s always trying to end the fight and is always dangerous. A decorated veteran and former Special Forces paratrooper, he’s incredibly tough and has possibly the best chin in the Lightweight division.
#5 Jessica Andrade vs. #7 Mackenzie Dern
Jessica Andrade lands an uppercut on Lauren Murphy. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Women’s Strawweight Bout
Jessica Andrade: 24-12-0, 9 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Mackenzie Dern: 13-3-0, 0 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Andrade has won two of her last five fights and holds wins over former UFC Strawweight champion Rose Namajunas (12-6-0), #4 ranked Strawweight Amanda Lemos (13-3-1) and #2 ranked Bantamweight Raquel Pennington (15-9-0). A former Strawweight champion, she has fought in all three women’s weight classes and is currently ranked in two. A true powerhouse, she’s an explosive striker with some of the heaviest hands in women’s MMA. Training at Parana Vale Tudo, Andrade is always pressuring forward and throwing combinations, constantly pursuing a finish. She has the speed to match her power and throws every shot accurately and purposefully. She’s also an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in BJJ and averaging nearly three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes. In top position, she does a great job of controlling her opponent and has devastating ground and pound.
Mackenzie Dern throws a right hand at Virna Jandiroba. Credit: MMA Mania.
Dern has won three of her last five bouts and has UFC victories over #11 ranked Strawweight Angela Hill (16-13-0), Tecia Torres (13-6-0), and Nina Nunes (11-7-0). Easily the most credentialed grappler in the Strawweight division, she’s won gold medals at the ADCC World Championship, World Jiu-Jitsu Championship, European Championship, and more. Training at RVCA, she’ll do whatever she can to get the fight to the mat, including pulling guard or jumping for submissions while standing. Dern has excellent top control, transitions quickly, and never puts herself in bad spots on the ground. She tends to headhunt on the feet, often blitzing forward to throw combinations. She’s willing to eat a shot to land one and has decent power in her hands, but she usually uses her striking to close the distance and set up a takedown. With six of her seven submission wins coming in round one, Dern is at her most dangerous early on.
#2 Sergei Pavlovich vs. #4 Tom Aspinall
Sergei Pavlovich lands ground and pound on Curtis Blaydes. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Interim Heavyweight Title Bout
Sergei Pavlovich: 18-1-0, 15 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Tom Aspinall: 13-3-0, 9 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Pavlovich has won all of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #5 ranked Heavyweight Curtis Blaydes (17-4-0), #9 ranked Heavyweight Tai Tuivasa (15-6-0), and #11 ranked Heavyweight Derrick Lewis (27-12-0). One of the most destructive punchers in the sport, he comes out guns blazing, on the hunt for a knockout the second the fight begins. He tends to fight behind his jab and throw in combination, constantly pressuring forward. Pavlovich never throws kicks, always looking to close the distance and let his hands go inside the pocket. Training at American Top Team, he doesn’t need much space to do significant damage and has power in both hands. He’s on the longest first-round KO streak in UFC history with six and has fifteen first-round knockouts in his professional career. Pavlovich hasn’t left the first round in eight fights and has the second-highest significant strikes landed per minute in UFC history at 8.72.
Tom Aspinall throws a right hand at Marcin Tybura. Credit: MMA Mania.
Aspinall has won four of his last five outings with victories over #6 ranked Heavyweight Alexander Volkov (37-10-0), #8 ranked Heavyweight Serghei Spivac (16-4-0), and #10 ranked Heavyweight Marcin Tybura (24-8-0). He’s a well-rounded fighter who’s comfortable anywhere and constantly pursues a finish. He’s a fast starter but won’t get wild, never overextending on his shots and always keeping his head off the centerline. Aspinall has excellent footwork and distance management, absorbing just seven significant strikes per fight on average in his UFC tenure. He has 100% takedown defense and accuracy, can land shots in open space, and advances position very quickly on the ground. Training at Team Kaobon, he’s never been to the third round in his career, with his last four fights not leaving the first round. Aspinall has racked up five Performance of the Night bonuses in just seven UFC fights and has 12 finishes in the first round in his career.
#1 Jiri Prochazka vs. #3 Alex Pereira
Jiri Prochazka lands an overhand on Volkan Oezdemir. Credit: Essentially Sports.
Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Jiri Prochazka: 29-3-1, 25 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Alex Pereira: 8-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Prochazka is undefeated since 2015 and has UFC wins over former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira (33-9-0), #9 ranked Light Heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (19-7-0), and #13 ranked Light Heavyweight Dominick Reyes (12-4-0). He’s an elusive striker with a unique style and serious power. He has excellent head movement and footwork, never remaining in one spot for long and constantly attacking from different angles. Prochazka never telegraphs his strikes, always keeping his hands down and throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions. Training at Jetsaam Gym Brno, he’s always coming forward but won’t get sloppy, remaining patient and looking for openings to land strikes. He won’t typically look for takedowns but has solid pressure on top and a great submission game. Prochazka hasn’t been to a decision since 2016 and is on an 11-fight finish streak, with ten knockouts and one submission.
Alex Pereira drops Sean Strickland with a combination. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Pereira has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over UFC Middleweight Champion Sean Strickland (28-5-0), #1 ranked Middleweight Israel Adesanya (24-3-0), and #4 ranked Light Heavyweight Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1). He is a former Glory Kickboxing Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion with a pro kickboxing record of 40-7. He is notorious for having the most devastating left hook in combat sports and loves letting it fly. Pereira has just as heavy kicks to back up his heavy hands, which he’ll often use to find his range before getting into the pocket to throw big hooks and devastating knees. He’s comfortable fighting on the outside of the octagon but is most dangerous when he takes the center and cuts off his opponent. Pereira has shown solid takedown defense and continually improving grappling, but still prefers to keep it standing. Training at Teixeira MMA, he doesn’t move a ton on the feet and sometimes stands straight in front of his opponent, waiting for them to throw something so he can fire back.
Best Bets
Frevola vs. Saint Denis to Not Go the Distance: Every fight on this main card is tough to predict, including this one. Both are finishers on solid win streaks, having grappling backgrounds but like to strike; it’s an excellent matchup. While I can’t decide who wins this, I am sure the judges will not be involved.
Tom Aspinall Moneyline: This is an incredibly tough pick. Pavlovich has been an unstoppable marauder in the UFC, but all his opponents have something in common: they’re all relatively slow, stationary heavyweights. Derrick Lewis, Tai Tuivasa, and Shamil Abdurakhimov are all slower-moving brawlers who do most of their work in the pocket. Aspinall is speedy and elusive for a Heavyweight, not to mention a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Not only do I think he can avoid Pavlovich’s power, but if he gets it to the mat, he could find an early finish.
Jiri Prochazka Moneyline: This is even tougher than the last pick. Regardless of the outcome, I love both fighters and cannot be disappointed. While I believe they’ll be evenly matched on the feet, Jiri’s grappling advantage could make a significant difference. He was able to control and submit Glover Teixeira in the fifth round, who’s a much higher-level grappler than Pereira. If Prochazka can remain elusive on the feet and tire him out, the opportunity for a takedown will open up, and I don’t know if Pereira can escape from the bottom in that situation.
