UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig Preview
Paul Craig breaks the arm of Jamahal Hill. Credit: MMA Fighting.
This weekend, two of the highest-level grapplers in the Middleweight division face off when Brendan Allen and Paul Craig collide in the octagon. In the co-main event, a streaking contender in Michael Morales takes on an experienced veteran in Jake Matthews. Preceding this is a bevy of finishers and up-and-coming fighters looking to establish themselves in the premiere MMA organization. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Luana Pinheiro vs. Amanda Ribas
Luana Pinheiro throws a right hand at Stephanie Frausto. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Women’s Strawweight Bout
Luana Pinheiro: 11-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Amanda Ribas: 11-4-0, 2 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Pinheiro is undefeated since 2017 and has UFC victories over Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-12-0), Sam Hughes (8-5-0), and Randa Markos (11-12-1). She’s aggressive on the feet, looking to blitz into the pocket and land hooks. She throws every shot with power and rarely throws kicks, doing most of her damage on the inside with her hands. Pinheiro has a black belt in Judo and possesses excellent clinch takedowns and throws. Training at Nova Uniao, she’ll often control her opponent in the clinch before taking them down to land significant ground and pound or a submission. She’s averaging nearly three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has excellent top pressure. Pinheiro’s seven career finishes came in the first round, making her most dangerous early on.
Amanda Ribas lands ground and pound on Viviane Araujo.
Ribas has found victory in two of her last five outings and holds wins over #8 ranked Flyweight Viviane Araujo (12-5-0), #8 ranked Strawweight Mackenzie Dern (13-4-0), and Virna Jandiroba (19-3-0). Ribas is a technical Muay Thai striker who is constantly moving and fighting behind her jab. She has fast, accurate hands and excellent clinch striking, damaging her opponents with flurries of elbows and knees. Training with the Ribas Family, everything she throws is straight and tight, never overextending or throwing looping shots. She has excellent footwork and throws a solid variety of strikes to the head and body. Ribas has black belts in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Judo and averages about two takedowns landed per UFC fight. She’s an excellent defensive grappler, defending 88% of takedowns attempted on her.
Payton Talbott vs. Nick Aguirre
Payton Talbott lands a right hand on Reyes Cortez Jr. Credit: MMA Mania.
Bantamweight Bout
Payton Talbott: 6-0-0, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Nick Aguirre: 7-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Talbott is undefeated and making his UFC debut following a Contender Series victory over Reyes Cortez Jr. (7-3-0). He is an excellent technical striker who’s constantly coming forward and throwing in combination. At 5’10, he’s lengthy for the division and uses it well, throwing long, straight shots to damage his opponent. Talbott does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations and varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly. He fights behind his jab and has excellent distance management, using great footwork and head movement to remain unscathed. Training at Reno Academy of Combat, he remains technical throughout the fight and gets increasingly dangerous, with all his finishes coming in the second or third round. Talbott has an excellent chin, tending to eat shots and continue marching forward unphased.
Nick Aguirre throws a right hook at Dan Argueta. Credit: MMA Junkie.
Aguirre has won four of his last five fights and has no UFC victories, coming in off a debut loss to Dan Argueta (9-2-0). A former collegiate wrestler, he’s a solid grappler with great takedowns and a slick submission game. Training at Valle Flow Striking, he’s a large bantamweight at 5’9 but tends to use his length on the ground to find submissions instead of on the feet. Aguirre will shoot in early and looks to finish the fight at all times, constantly throwing ground and pound on top until a submission presents itself. He favors volume to power when striking, regularly throwing looping shots in combination. He has quick kicks, won’t telegraph shots, and will use his striking to close the distance and set up his takedowns. All Aguirre’s submission victories are via choke, so he’s highly dangerous if he can find his opponent’s neck.
Chase Hooper vs. Jordan Leavitt
Chase Hooper throws ground and pound strikes at Felipe Colares. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Lightweight Bout
Chase Hooper: 12-3-1, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Jordan Leavitt: 11-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Hooper has won three of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Felipe Colares (10-4-0), Peter Barrett (11-6-0), and Nick Fiore (6-2-0). He is an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a dangerous submission game. He’s averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes, usually using trips and clinch takedowns to get his opponent to the mat. Hooper has excellent top control when on the ground and uses his length well, making him dangerous in nearly any position. Training at Combat Sport and Fitness, he is one of the tallest fighters in the division at 6’1 and has shown steady improvement in his striking, landing nearly 150 significant strikes in his last outing. He’ll often throw kicks at range before blitzing in to unload combinations. Hooper has proved impressively durable and is never truly out of a fight.
Jordan Leavitt slams Matt Wiman. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Jordan Leavitt has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Trey Ogden (16-6-0), Victor Martinez (13-5-0), and Matt Wiman (16-10-0). He’s an excellent grappler with heavy top pressure and seamless transitions. He’s hard to escape when on top, typically advancing position quickly and constantly pursuing a submission. Training at Syndicate MMA, Leavitt has excellent clinch control and takedowns, often closing the distance with his striking. On the feet, he’s patient and won’t move a ton, usually throwing kicks at range before moving in with punches. Five of his six submissions have come via choke, and he’ll often jump submissions out of seemingly nowhere. Leavitt is very crafty on the mat, rarely putting himself in bad spots and usually finding a way to reach top position even if he didn’t initiate the exchange.
Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews
Michael Morales lands a right hand on Adam Fugitt. Credit: Entram Gym.
Welterweight Bout
Michael Morales: 15-0-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Jake Matthews: 19-6-0, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Morales comes into this fight undefeated, with UFC victories over Adam Fugitt (9-4-0), Max Griffin (19-10-0), and Trevin Giles (16-5-0). He’s a technical kickboxer who remains patient and waits for openings to damage his opponent. He throws everything in combination and does a great job setting things up with his jab. Morales often blitzes forward to throw long, devastating hooks and straights, then quickly returns to range. Training at Entram Gym, he’s a solid grappler and very strong in the clinch. He’s also shown great calmness when put in tough spots and great defense off his back. When on top, Morales will typically resort to ground-and-pound in his pursuit of a finish.
Jake Matthews cracks Andre Fialho with a right hand. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Matthews has won three of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over Andre Fialho (16-8-0), Li Jingliang (19-8-0), and Darrius Flowers (12-6-1). Now in his 9th year in the promotion, he had established himself as a grappler, averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Lately, though, he’s shown a considerable uptick in aggression on the feet, being more than willing to brawl in the pocket. Training at Nexus, Matthews uses technical kickboxing and stays behind his jab, often trying to draw his opponent in so he can counterstrike. He varies his attacks well, has a solid chin, and throws everything with power without loading up. He has power in both hands, superb accuracy, and doesn’t often overreach, usually remaining patient. When Matthews does take it to the mat, he has great takedowns, excellent top control, and throws heavy ground and pound.
#10 Brendan Allen vs. #13 Paul Craig
Brendan Allen throws a Superman punch at Andre Muniz. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Middleweight Bout
Brendan Allen: 22-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.
Paul Craig: 17-6-1, 4 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Allen has won all of his last five outings, with wins over Andre Muniz (23-6-0), Krzysztof Jotko (24-7-0), and Jacob Malkoun (7-3-0). He’s an excellent grappler who can end a fight quickly. When on top, he’ll throw heavy ground and pound to open submission opportunities, typically a choke. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Allen is dangerous whether he’s on top or on his back and is always looking to finish the fight. He has solid striking to back up his grappling and has decent hands and kicks, using more of a boxing style when he is on the feet. He doesn’t see the judges too often but can go three rounds and is willing to leave everything he has inside of the octagon. With four wins via rear naked choke in his last five fights, Allen is lethal if he can get to his opponent’s neck.
Paul Craig submits Gadzhimurad Antigulov with a triangle choke. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Craig has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Light Heavyweight Jamahal Hill (12-1-0), #3 ranked Light Heavyweight Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1), and #6 ranked Light Heavyweight Nikita Krylov (30-9-0). He’s one of the most accomplished grapplers in the UFC, holding the UFC Light Heavyweight record for triangles with four and the second most Performance of the Night bonuses ever, with 8. He’s a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and is comfortable anywhere on the ground, whether on his back or on top. Training at Higher Level Martial Arts, Craig is highly experienced and always remains calm and technical on the ground, never rushing or putting himself in dangerous spots. On the feet, he tends to throw kicks at range and looks to close the distance and get the fight to the mat. He finds submissions quickly on top and bottom and is very tough to get away from on the ground. Craig is highly durable and can find submissions even in the deepest waters.
Best Bets
Payton Talbott by KO/TKO: Although a completely unproven prospect, Talbott looked great on the Contender Series and is facing another inexperienced fighter with no UFC wins. Aguirre has mediocre striking, so if Talbott keeps it on the feet, I expect him to pick up another knockout victory.
Chase Hooper Moneyline: This is a bit of a hilarious matchup, given both fighters’ personalities outside the cage, but I think it will make for an entertaining grappling match. Considering neither is much of a striker, I expect most of this to play out on the ground, where I believe Hooper has the advantage.
Paul Craig by Finish: Craig looked fantastic in his Middleweight debut against Andre Muniz, proving moving down a weight class was the right move for him. I believe he’s a higher-level grappler than Allen and more experienced, and in a fight I expect to play out on the mat, that’s a considerable differencemaker. Regardless of who’s landing takedowns, I expect Craig to find a finish, whether on top or bottom.
