UFC 305 Preview
Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland exchange blows in the clinch. Credit: MMA Fighting.
The UFC hits Perth, Australia, with a fantastic pay-per-view card. From top to bottom, this card is stacked with excellent matchups and exciting fighters, all looking to add to their highlight reels. In the co-main event, we’ll see a matchup with Flyweight title implications when two top-tier fighters collide in Kai Kara-France and Steve Urceg. In the main event, we’ll see the long-awaited matchup between the former champion, Israel Adesanya, and his rival and current title-holder, Dricus Du Plessis. I expect nonstop action from this card, and it should be an excellent night of fights. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
Li Jingliang blasts Frank Camacho with a left hand. Credit: MMA Mania.
Welterweight Bout
Li Jingliang: 19-8-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Carlos Prates: 19-6-0, 14 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Li has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8-0), Dhiego Lima (17-9-0), and Muslim Salikhov (20-5-0). He’s an elusive striker with one-shot knockout power. He has been tough to hit in his promotional tenure, having defended 57% of significant strikes attempted on him. While Li doesn’t put out a ton of volume in terms of strikes, he makes up for it in accuracy and power, able to end the fight seemingly from anywhere at any time. He’s patient on the feet, often throwing leg kicks at range while looking for openings to land devastating power shots. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he’s averaging over one takedown landed per fight and is dangerous on the mat, possessing a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Li is most dangerous when he’s able to cut off the cage and get into the pocket, throwing every punch with fight-ending intentions.
Carlos Prates knocks out Trevin Giles. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Prates is on a nine-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Trevin Giles (16-6-0) and Charles Radtke (9-4-0). He’s a destructive, technical striker with serious power in his hands. He favors power to volume, throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions, and can produce a flash knockout at any time. Prates varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly and constantly looking to land knees to the body. Training with Fighting Nerds, he has excellent distance management and is continuously pressuring forward but remains patient and composed, never telegraphing his attacks. He’s unlikely to take the fight to the mat but has solid takedown defense, capable of defending shots both in open space and against the cage. Prates has only gone to a decision twice since 2013 and always pushes a heavy pace.
#10 Tai Tuivasa vs. #12 Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Tai Tuivasa drops Greg Hardy with a right hand. Credit: Zuffa LLC.
Heavyweight Bout
Tai Tuivasa: 15-7-0, 14 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik: 14-5-0, 13 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Tuivasa has won one of his last five bouts and holds UFC victories over #11 ranked Heavyweight Derrick Lewis (28-12-0), Andrei Arlovski (34-24-0), and Stefan Struve (33-13-0). He is the true embodiment of a brawler, always willing to eat a shot to land one and slug it out in the pocket. He’s more technical than he often appears, staying patient and fighting behind his jab before letting go of some massive right hands. Tuivasa has solid head movement and good distance management but won’t throw much at range before closing the distance. Training at Lions High Performance Centre, he has heavy leg kicks and one-shot knockout power, and he can finish the fight from anywhere. He’s at his most dangerous early, with 12 of his fourteen KOs coming in round one, only seeing two decisions in his pro career. Tuivasa can land immense damage without much space, particularly elbows and knees.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik flattens Augusto Sakai. Credit: Yahoo Sports.
Rozenstruik has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Shamil Gaziev (13-1-0), Augusto Sakai (16-6-1), and Alistair Overeem (47-19-0). He is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 76-8, with 64 wins by knockout. Nine of his thirteen career knockouts have come in the first round, so he’s at his most dangerous early on. Training at American Top Team, Rozenstruik is an excellent counter-striker who looks to draw his opponent into the pocket so he can land big shots with his right hand. He has one-shot KO power but can string together long combinations if he lets his hands go. He has solid takedown defense and has defended 75% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC, always preferring to keep it standing. Rozenstruik has excellent hand speed for a Heavyweight, throws everything with power, and often mixes kicks into the end of combinations.
#5 Mateusz Gamrot vs. #11 Dan Hooker
Mateus Gamrot rains down ground and pound onto Jalin Turner. Credit: Yahoo Sports.
Lightweight Bout
Mateusz Gamrot: 24-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Dan Hooker: 23-12-0, 11 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Gamrot has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Lightweight Arman Tsarukyan (22-3-0), #8 ranked Lightweight Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0), and #13 ranked Lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (32-16-0). He is an incredibly well-rounded fighter and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. He’s constantly moving, staying safe at range, remaining patient, and picking his shots. Gamrot favors power to volume, throwing every shot to finish his opponent. Training at American Top Team, he is averaging over five takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has defended 90% of takedowns attempted on him. He is a tenacious wrestler, refusing to give up on takedowns and never staying still on the ground, whether on top or bottom. A former KSW champion, “Gamer” has excellent cardio and can push a consistent pace across fifteen minutes.
Dan Hooker lands a brutal knee on Nasrat Haqparast. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Hooker has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #6 ranked Welterweight Gilbert Burns (22-7-0), #14 ranked Lightweight Jalin Turner (14-8-0), and Jim Miller (37-18-0). He’s an excellent striker with a kickboxing background, holding a professional kickboxing record of 13-1. He’s at his best when he’s controlling the center of the cage and pressuring forward, unloading combinations to the head and body. Hooker is a devastating clinch striker, possessing some of the most brutal knees in the UFC and great dirty boxing. Training at City Kickboxing, he varies his strikes very well, attacking the head and body evenly and constantly throwing from different angles. He has solid takedown defense, an underrated submission game, and is willing to grapple, averaging just under one takedown landed per fifteen minutes. Hooker always pushes a heavy pace, landing, on average, over 89 significant strikes in his last five wins.
#4 Kai Kara-France vs. #7 Steve Erceg
Kai Kara-France stuns Cody Garbrandt with a right hand. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Flyweight Bout
Kai Kara-France: 24-11-0, 11 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Steve Erceg: 12-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Kara-France has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Askar Askarov (15-1-1), Rogerio Bontorin (17-5-0), and Cody Garbrandt (14-6-0). He’s a speedy, explosive striker who’s always looking to push the action. He’s in perpetual motion, never staying in one spot for long and always keeping his head off the centerline. Kara-France throws every shot with power, regularly dipping his head and blitzing forward to unload looping hooks and overhands. He won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges but has excellent balance and takedown defense and has proven tough to finish on the mat. He’s always willing to eat a shot to land one, regularly hanging in the pocket to exchange blows. Kara-France has been awarded five bonuses in eleven UFC fights and always leaves everything inside the cage.
Steve Erceg applies a rear naked choke to Alessandro Costa. Credit: MMA Junkie.
Erceg has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #11 ranked Flyweight Matt Schnell (16-8-0), David Dvorak (20-6-0), and Alessandro Costa (14-4-0). He’s extremely well-rounded, possessing technical striking and a dangerous submission game. He’s constantly pressuring forward, keeping his head off the centerline, and always remaining technical, never telegraphing his shots. Erceg has excellent counterstriking and hides his kicks well, regularly landing brutal leg kicks. Training at Wilkes Martial Arts, he’s averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and can find submissions with incredible speed. With all six submission wins coming via choke, he’ll constantly search for his opponent’s neck on the ground. Erceg has solid cardio and pushes a consistent pace throughout, never getting sloppy or putting himself in bad spots.
(C) Dricus Du Plessis vs. #2 Israel Adesanya
Dricus Du Plessis cracks Sean Strickland with a right hand. Credit: Zuffa LLC.
Middleweight Title Bout
Dricus Du Plessis: 21-2-0, 9 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Israel Adesanya: 24-3-0, 16 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Du Plessis is on a nine-fight win streak and has UFC victories coming over #1 ranked Middleweight Sean Strickland (29-6-0), #3 ranked Middleweight Robert Whittaker (27-7-0), and Derek Brunson (24-9-0). He utilizes a kickboxing style on the feet, regularly throwing a barrage of kicks from distance, especially to the legs. He has one-shot knockout power, with many of his knockouts seemingly coming from nowhere. Training at CIT Performance Institute, Du Plessis has power in both hands and will often blitz forward to throw big combinations. He throws everything with power and never telegraphs his shots, making him dangerous at all times. He frequently mixes grappling into his attacks, averaging three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes. When on top, Du Plessis stays patient and won’t force anything, focusing on getting to advantageous positions before throwing ground and pound.
Israel Adesanya blasts Marvin Vettori with an uppercut. Credit: MMA Fighting.
Adesanya has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #3 ranked Middleweight Robert Whittaker (27-7-0), #5 ranked Middleweight Jared Cannonier (17-7-0), and #6 ranked Middleweight Marvin Vettori (19-7-1). He is one of the best technical strikers in MMA and a former professional kickboxer with a record of 75-5 with 29 wins by knockout. Throwing with both power and volume, he’s landed, on average, about 83 significant strikes in his last five fights. Adesanya is highly elusive, rarely taking substantial damage, and is constantly moving and keeping his head off the centerline. Training at City Kickboxing, he has excellent footwork and is comfortable at range and inside the pocket, able to land damage from anywhere. He has a tremendous variety of kicks and does a great job of varying his attacks, always making his strikes highly unpredictable. Adesanya’s last eleven fights have been for gold, making him not only prepared for five rounds but highly comfortable in the spotlight.
Best Bets
Mateusz Gamrot by Decision: Although the odds suggest otherwise, this is a very close matchup. While Gamrot has the ground advantage and Hooker the striking advantage, both are more well-rounded than they’re often given credit for. Gamrot has solid, technical striking, while Hooker has excellent takedown defense and a slick submission game. Given this, I expect this to be a very closely contested matchup. Ultimately, though, I believe Gamrot's tenacity will be the differencemaker. Although I expect him to have to work to get the fight to the mat, I don’t expect him to be deterred by the defensive grappling of Hooker. Gamrot has taken down every single one of his UFC opponents, many with much more outstanding grappling pedigrees than Hooker. I expect Gamrot to work his wrestling throughout, secure takedowns and control time, and earn his fourth consecutive win.
Kara-France vs. Erceg to Go the Distance: This is easily one of the most exciting matchups on the card, yet simultaneously one of the least talked about. The stakes are high, as either would instantly re-enter title contention with a win. Both push a heavy pace and are always coming forward, and that clash of styles typically leads to a war. I expect this fight to primarily play out on the feet; Erceg is the likelier of the two to initiate grappling, but Kara-France has excellent takedown defense, so I don’t anticipate much time spent on the mat. Both have very solid chins and are willing to eat a shot to land one, so hopefully, we get a full-on slugfest. Regardless of how the fight plays out, both are very durable, and I expect them to reach the scorecards.
Israel Adesanya Moneyline: This is a matchup of two dangerous strikers with very different styles. While Adesanya is more of a precise sniper, Du Plessis is a marauder, constantly looking to charge forward and throw bombs. One of the most critical factors in this matchup is the pace at which the fight plays out. While Du Plessis proved he could go five rounds, he benefits from a faster-paced, shorter-length fight. Adesanya has proven to be a master of controlling pace and distance, slowing down pressure-based fighters like Jared Cannonier and Marvin Vettori and forcing them to fight Adesanya’s fight. Adesanya also tends to be risk-averse, which hasn’t always worked in his favor but is a significant issue for Du Plessis. One of Du Plessis’ best skills is capitalizing on his opponent’s mistakes, regularly landing heavy counterstrikes or takedowns when his opponent telegraphs or overextends. With Adesanya remaining technical and avoiding significant risks, Du Plessis will likely have to fight at a slower pace and be unable to find the big openings he typically would. I expect Adesanya to control the pace and distance, keep the fight standing, and ultimately earn the victory and the title.
