UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho Preview
The UFC returns to its headquarters at the APEX with another outstanding Fight Night card. There’s excellent fights throughout, including two explosive Ultimate Fighter Finale bouts. In the co-main event, we’ll see established veteran Angela Hill take on rising prospect Tabatha Ricci. In the main event, we’ll witness a fight with title implications when perennial contender Jared Cannonier faces off against the red-hot Caio Borralho. I expect plenty of highlights, finishes, and wild wars from top to bottom. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Middleweight Bout
Edmen Shahbazyan: 13-4-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Gerald Meerschaert: 36-17-0, 6 KO/TKO, 28 Sub.
Shahbazyan has won two of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Brad Tavares (20-10-0), Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0), and AJ Dobson (7-3-0). He’s a technical kickboxer with significant power and great footwork. He fights behind his jab, favors power to volume, and constantly adds kicks to the end of combinations. He has excellent footwork and distance management and can go in and out of the pocket without absorbing much damage. Shahbazyan has solid offensive grappling, landing, on average, over two takedowns per fifteen minutes, and has brutal ground and pound. Training at Xtreme Couture, he’s always throwing in combination, keeping his opponent on the back foot and seeking a knockout. Eleven of Shahbazyan’s twelve finishes have come in the first round, and he’s at his best early on in the fight.
Meerschaert has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Bruno Silva (23-11-0), Dustin Stoltzfus (15-6-0), and Makhmud Muradov (26-8-0). He’s a talented grappler with excellent wrestling and submissions. He has solid timing on his takedowns and remains patient in top position, never putting himself in a bad spot. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Meerschaert has good head movement, remains technical at all times, and mixes kicks into combinations, never telegraphing them. His grappling often sets up his striking, with his opponent focused on defending takedowns instead of strikes. He’s averaging over two takedowns landed and over one submission attempted per fifteen minutes. With 24 of his 28 submissions coming via choke, he’s extremely dangerous if he can find his opponent's neck.
#12 Neil Magny vs. Michael Morales
Welterweight Bout
Neil Magny: 29-12-0, 8 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Michael Morales: 16-0-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Magny has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Welterweight Geoff Neal (15-6-0), Robbie Lawler (30-16-0), and Mike Malott (10-2-1). He is in his 11th year in the promotion, and his experience shows in the cage, as he’s seemingly comfortable everywhere. He’s tall for the division and uses it well, staying at distance on the feet and picking his opponents apart with his punches. Magny’s best weapon is his cardio; he can and has gone 25 minutes and always pushes a heavy pace, constantly touching up his opponents or working for takedowns. Training at Elevation Fight Team, he is excellent at using his length inside the clinch, often landing knees and elbows and scoring takedowns. Averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, his most straightforward path to victory is to take it to the mat, which he usually does. Magny stays technical across the entire fight, never overexerting himself or putting himself in significant danger.
Morales comes into this fight undefeated, with UFC victories over Jake Matthews (20-7-0), Max Griffin (20-10-0), and Trevin Giles (16-6-0). He’s a technical kickboxer who remains patient and waits for openings to damage his opponent. He throws everything in combination, remaining technical throughout and always setting up his attacks with his jab. Morales often blitzes forward to throw long, devastating hooks and straights before quickly returning to range. Training at Entram Gym, he’s a well-rounded grappler, averaging over a takedown landed per fifteen minutes, and has defended 91% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He’s shown great calmness when put in tough spots, able to survive on his back and return the fight to where he’s most comfortable. Morales has outstruck all his UFC opponents, landing, on average, about 66 significant strikes per fight.
Kaan Ofli vs. Mairon Santos
TUF Featherweight Finale Bout
Kaan Ofli: 11-2-1, 1 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Mairon Santos: 14-1-0, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Ofli is on a nine-fight win streak and secured his spot in the TUF Finale with a first-round submission of Roedie Roets (7-2-0). He’s a powerful grappler with excellent top control and solid power in his hands. He varies his attacks well on the feet, throwing to the head and body while mixing leg kicks into combinations. Ofli is dangerous inside the pocket, regularly throwing brutal knees and elbows. He uses his striking to set up his grappling, often striking into the clinch or a takedown shot. Training at Australian Top Team, he’s capable of powerful slams, has heavy top pressure, and is always working on top, looking to posture up or secure submissions. Ofli is dangerous on top and off his back, capable of finding submissions from anywhere, especially chokes.
Santos has won four of his last five fights and defeated Guillermo Torres (7-2-0) via unanimous decision to earn his spot in the TUF Finale. He’s a dangerous striker with excellent power and footwork. He’s always moving, fighting behind his jab, and throwing everything in combination while looking to control the center. Santos does a great job varying his shots, attacking the head, body, and legs evenly, and regularly mixing kicks into combinations. Training at Xtreme Couture, he’s dangerous at range and in the pocket, able to land significant damage from anywhere. He has solid takedown defense and won’t accept position on his back, always working hard to get the fight back to the feet. Santos heats up as the fight continues and carries his power across all fifteen minutes, always remaining dangerous.
Robert Valentin vs. Ryan Loder
TUF Middleweight Finale Bout
Robert Valentin: 11-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Ryan Loder: 7-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Valentin has won four of his last five bouts with one draw and earned his spot in the TUF Finale with a first-round submission of Paddy McCorry (4-2-0). He’s a well-rounded, explosive fighter who always pushes the action. He comes out guns blazing, constantly blitzing forward to unload looping hooks and brutal overhands. Valentin holds the center well, forcing his opponent to the outside while supplying steady shots up the middle, mainly front kicks. Training at Fight Move Academy, he’s strong in the clinch and has excellent trips and throws, regularly looking to land head-and-arm throws. He has heavy top pressure, constantly throwing elbows and looking for submissions while wearing down his opponent. He’s at his most dangerous early on, with seven of his ten finishes coming in round one.
Loder has won four of his last five outings and earned a unanimous decision over Omran Chaaban (6-2-0) to secure his spot in the TUF Finale. He’s a dominant grappler with heavy hands and a dangerous submission game. He’s patient and technical on the feet, looking for openings before throwing straight, tight shots. Loder remains composed throughout, never getting wild or telegraphing his attacks or takedowns. Training with MMAGold Fight Team, he’s an explosive wrestler, often shooting blast double legs or chaining together takedowns in the clinch. He advances quickly in top position, constantly looking to posture to land elbows or pursue submissions. Loder improves the longer the fight goes, increasing the pace and always seeking a finish.
#9 Angela Hill vs. #11 Tabatha Ricci
Women’s Strawweight Bout
Angela Hill: 17-13-0, 5 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Tabatha Ricci: 10-2-0, 1 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Hill has won four of her last five outings and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Strawweight Loopy Godínez (12-5-0), #12 ranked Strawweight Luana Pinheiro (11-3-0), and Ariane Carnelosi (15-3-0). She is one of the most experienced and active veterans on the roster, and there’s nearly no spot in a fight she hasn’t been in. A former kickboxer with a professional record of 16-0, she’s an excellent technical striker with a gritty Muay Thai style. Hill pushes a heavy pace, landing, on average, about 87 significant strikes in her last five fights. Training at Alliance MMA, she’s exceptionally durable, always willing to eat a shot to land one, and constantly pressuring forward. She’s willing to grapple, possessing solid wrestling both offensively and defensively. Hill has never been knocked out in her career and heats up as the fight continues.
Ricci has won four of her last five fights and has UFC victories over #13 ranked Strawweight Gillian Robertson (14-8-0), Tecia Pennington (13-7-0), and Polyana Viana (13-7-0). She’s a speedy, well-rounded scrapper who holds black belts in Judo and BJJ. She’s in perpetual motion on the feet, never staying in one spot for long, all while constantly peppering her opponents with shots. Ricci throws everything in combination, has great distance management and head movement, and regularly mixes kicks into combinations, particularly to the legs. She’s averaging about three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and has excellent timing, able to secure takedowns in open space and the clinch. Training at Paragon BJJ, she’s always working in top position, constantly advancing while staying stafe and not putting herself in dangerous positions. Ricci has landed at least one takedown in all her UFC victories and always looks to take the fight to the mat.
#5 Jared Cannonier vs. #12 Caio Borralho
Middleweight Bout
Jared Cannonier: 17-7-0, 10 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Caio Borralho: 16-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Cannonier has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #1 ranked Middleweight Sean Strickland (29-6-0), #6 ranked Middleweight Marvin Vettori (19-7-1), and #9 ranked Middleweight Jack Hermansson (24-8-0). He has fought at Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight in his promotional tenure and carries that Heavyweight power at 185 pounds. He throws everything with fight-ending intentions, constantly pressuring forward and always willing to eat a shot to land one. Cannonier has excellent footwork and regularly switches stances, typically opening up his combinations with his jab. Training at MMA LAB, Cannonier is fantastic at moving in and out of the pocket and usually won’t stay at range for long, often throwing damaging leg kicks when outside of the pocket. What he lacks in volume, he makes up for in power, and his pace increases as the fight continues. Cannonier is unlikely to take the fight to the mat but can land devastating ground and pound if he gets top position.
Borralho is undefeated since 2015 and has UFC wins over Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-9-0), Makhmud Muradov (26-8-0), and Abus Magomedov (26-6-1). He is a well-rounded fighter with technical striking and a slick submission game. He’s constantly moving on the feet and is highly elusive, allowing him to outstrike five of the six opponents he’s faced in the promotion. Training with the Fighting Nerds, Borralho looks to land kicks at range before entering the pocket to land powerful hooks. On the mat, he has excellent top pressure, great sweeps, and constantly pursues a finish. He’s averaging about two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is very explosive, often landing takedowns in open space. Borralho has excellent cardio and pushes a heavy pace throughout the fight, making him dangerous at all times.
Best Bets
Mairon Santos Moneyline: The first of two Ultimate Fighter Finale bouts, this is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, with Ofli, the grappler, and Santos, the striker. As is usually the case in these matchups, it comes down to who can do their specialty the best. While Ofli is likely the more well-rounded of the two, I believe Santos’ advantage on the feet is more significant than Ofli’s advantage on the mat. Santos has shown solid takedown defense and a tendency to improve as the fight continues, and he possesses an 8-inch reach advantage. Ofli isn’t an exceptionally diverse striker, doing most of his work inside the pocket with his hands, constantly looking to close the distance. If Ofli doesn’t get inside the pocket, his striking and grappling offense will be significantly stifled. I expect Santos to weather an early storm, keep the fight standing, and ultimately earn his UFC contract with a victory.
Robert Valentin Moneyline: The second Ultimate Fighter finale bout is a highly anticipated one. A bit less straightforward than our other Finale fight, Valentin is a well-rounded marauder, while Loder is a dominant wrestler. While Loder has a very obvious route to victory, Valentin has various ways to win this fight, and ultimately, that’s the difference maker. Although Loder has solid power in his hands, Valentin has a considerably more advanced striking style. Considering Valentin’s tendency to throw shots up the middle, Loder will likely struggle to find takedown openings. Even if Loder does land a takedown, Valentin is solid on the mats and fully capable of reversing position or getting the fight back to the feet. I expect Valentin to weather the wrestling of Loder, keep the fight standing, and batter his opponent on the feet to secure his UFC contract.
Cannonier vs. Borralho to Not Go the Distance: While I don’t love not picking a straight-up winner on the main event, this one is too close to call. While Borralho has a definite speed and grappling advantage, he has also proved hittable, and Cannonier only needs one clean shot to end your night. Borralho has never faced someone with the power or pedigree of Cannonier but has exclusively fought high-level competition in the UFC and is by no means inexperienced. Both have distinct advantages and disadvantages in this matchup; frankly, it’s great matchmaking from the UFC. Although I’m unsure who will leave with a victory, I am confident the judges won’t decide it. Both are incredibly dangerous and constantly pushing a heavy pace, with the majority of both of their wins coming via finish. Regardless of who wins this bout, I expect a barn-burner and a highlight finish for the victor.