UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
Another outstanding Fight Night card hits the UFC Apex this Saturday. Excellent matchups and outstanding prospects fill this card from top to bottom. In the co-main event, we’ll see a top-ten matchup in the Women’s Flyweight division when the heavy-hitting Jéssica Andrade takes on the rising prospect Natalia Silva. In the main event, we’ll witness perennial contender Gilbert Burns take on a dominant grappler in Sean Brady. I expect this card to produce plenty of memorable wars and incredible highlights. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz
Lightweight Bout
Trevor Peek: 9-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Yanal Ashmouz: 7-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Peek has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Erick Gonzalez (14-8-0) and Mohammed Yahya (12-5-0). He’s a wild striker who is always coming forward and looking for a knockout. He’ll regularly throw standing hammer fists and throws every punch with maximum power. Peek has heavy leg kicks and solid high kicks, although he usually does most of his damage with his hands. Training at Agoge Combatives, he’s averaging nearly two takedowns landed per 15 minutes in his promotional tenure and has great wrestling despite his brawling tendencies. He’ll constantly blitz forward and unload long combinations, mainly wide hooks and overhands. Six of Peek’s eight knockouts have come in round one, and he always comes out with guns blazing.
Ashmouz has won four of his last five bouts and has a UFC victory over Sam Patterson (12-2-1). He’s a well-rounded, heavy-handed scrapper who’s always looking to do damage. He’ll typically float along the outside of the cage, firing heavy kicks to the head, legs, and body before entering the pocket and unloading hooks. Ashmouz has significant power in his hands and remains technical throughout, pushing a consistent pace and never getting sloppy. Training at K-Dojo, he’s strong in the clinch and has solid trips and throws. In top position, he’ll constantly look to posture up and land ground and pound but won’t put himself in bad positions, staying patient and not forcing anything. Ashmouz has produced finishes in the first, second, and third rounds and is always dangerous.
#11 Matt Schnell vs. #15 Cody Durden
Flyweight Bout
Matt Schnell: 16-8-0, 2 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Cody Durden: 16-6-1, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Schnell has won one of his last five outings with one no-contest and has UFC victories over Sumudaerji (16-6-0), Tyson Nam (21-14-1), and Louis Smolka (17-9-0). He’s willing to engage the fight just about anywhere, using a technical boxing style on the feet and favoring wrestling in grappling exchanges. He has solid speed and power in his hands, often using his striking to set up his grappling. Schnell excels at capitalizing on his opponent’s mistakes and regularly grabs chokes when defending takedowns. Of his nine career submission wins, seven are chokes, all of which are either a guillotine or triangle. Training at Fortis MMA, he has a black belt in karate, so despite largely boxing when on the feet, he has a kicking game to back up his hands. With nine first-round finishes and four first-round losses, Schnell is extremely unpredictable early on.
Durden has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Jake Hadley (11-3-0), Charles Johnson (16-6-0), and Carlos Mota (8-2-0). He’s a dominant wrestler with great cardio and technical striking. He’s landing, on average, over four takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC and can land takedowns in the clinch and open space. Durden is always working in top position, advancing with impressive speed and constantly threatening with ground and pound and submission attempts. Training at American Top Team, he won’t get sloppy on the feet, throwing everything straight and tight while regularly mixing in body shots. He can do severe damage without much space, particularly with his elbows. He’s averaging over seven minutes of control time in his UFC victories and will always look to get the fight to the mat.
Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson
Featherweight Bout
Steve Garcia: 16-5-0, 13 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Kyle Nelson: 16-5-1, 6 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Garcia has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Chase Hooper (14-3-1), Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-12-0), and SeungWoo Choi (11-7-0). He’s a heavy-handed striker constantly coming forward and pursuing a knockout. He’s lengthy for the division and uses it well, throwing everything in combination and regularly mixing kicks into his combos. Garcia varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly, and constantly looks to enter the pocket and let his hands go. Training at Jackson-Wink MMA, he’s landing, on average, over one takedown per fifteen minutes in the UFC and has heavy ground and pound. He throws everything with power but has impressive speed and technicality, never loading up or telegraphing his shots. Nine of Garcia’s last ten fights did not see a third round, and he’s always pushing the pace.
Nelson has won three of his last five outings with one draw and has UFC victories over Bill Algeo (18-9-0), Fernando Padilla (16-5-0), and Blake Bilder (8-2-1). He’s a powerful striker who’s always coming forward and never slows down. He fights behind his jab, throwing it with plenty of power, and is efficient with his striking, rarely wasting energy. Nelson does an excellent job of mixing in kicks, constantly throwing leg kicks and sneaking head kicks at the end of combinations. He has solid footwork, regularly cutting off the cage before entering the pocket to unload looping hooks and overhands. Training at House of Champions, he’s landing, on average, over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes in the UFC and is very strong in the clinch. Nelson throws everything with power and excels at landing kicks and counter shots on his opponent while they’re attempting a strike.
#6 Jéssica Andrade vs. #8 Natalia Silva
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Jéssica Andrade: 26-12-0 10 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Natalia Silva: 17-5-1, 5 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Andrade has won two of her last five fights and has UFC victories over #5 ranked Flyweight Rose Namajunas (14-6-0), #5 ranked Strawweight Amanda Lemos (14-4-1), and #6 ranked Strawweight Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2). A former Strawweight champion, she has fought in all three women’s weight classes and is currently ranked in two. A true powerhouse, she’s an explosive striker with some of the heaviest hands in women’s MMA. Training at Parana Vale Tudo, Andrade is always pressuring forward and throwing combinations, constantly pursuing a finish. She has the speed to match her power and throws every shot accurately and purposefully. She’s also an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in BJJ, averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, and has devastating ground and pound. Andrade has the most wins, bouts, and post-fight bonuses in UFC Women’s history and is never in a boring fight.
Silva is on an eleven-fight win streak and has UFC victories over #9 ranked Viviane Araújo (12-6-0), #14 ranked Jasmine Jasudavicius (11-3-0), and Tereza Bleda (7-1-0). She is a fantastic striker with lightning-fast kicks and excellent footwork. She’s constantly feinting with her hips and switching stances, making her wildly unpredictable. Silva is highly accurate and throws every shot with power and purpose, usually starting or ending combinations with kicks. Training with Team Borracha, she does an excellent job of holding the center, constantly moving in and out of the pocket without absorbing damage. She’s willing to grapple but tends to keep it on the feet, having defended 91% of takedowns attempted on her in the UFC. Silva pushes a fast pace across the entire fight but will remain technical throughout.
#6 Gilbert Burns vs. #8 Sean Brady
Welterweight Bout
Gilbert Burns: 22-7-0, 6 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Sean Brady: 16-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Burns has won two of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #9 ranked Welterweight Stephen Thompson (17-7-1), #15 ranked Welterweight Neil Magny (29-13-0), and Jorge Masvidal (35-17-0). He’s a decorated grappler with serious power in his hands and is always pursuing a finish. He’s always moving on his feet, constantly looking to close the distance, dip his head, and unleash brutal overhands. Burns has explosive takedowns, excellent top control, and a fantastic submission game. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he has a granite chin and pushes a consistent pace across all 15 minutes. He favors power to volume, throwing everything with knockout intentions, and is always willing to brawl inside the pocket. Burns is in his tenth year in the promotion and is dangerous wherever the fight goes.
Brady has won four of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0), Jake Matthews (20-7-0), and Michael Chiesa (19-7-0). He is an excellent grappler, averaging over three takedowns landed per fifteen minutes in the UFC, and has controlled nearly every opponent he’s faced. Training at Renzo Gracie Philly, he advances incredibly quickly on the ground and remains patient on top, using smothering top control to find submission openings. Four of Brady’s five submission wins have come via some form of choke, so the fight is over if he can get a hold of his opponent’s neck. He utilizes a boxing style on the feet, not moving his feet much but throwing constant feints with his hands. While he prefers to take the fight to the mat, he won’t get desperate for takedowns and is willing to engage on the feet. Most of Brady’s finishes have come after round one, usually heating up as the fight continues.
Best Bets
Steve Garcia by KO/TKO: This is likely the most underrated matchup on the main card; I expect fireworks in this bout. While both fighters are perpetually coming forward and pushing the pace, Nelson is the more cautious, while Garcia is constantly throwing caution to the wind. While taking constant risks isn’t always the best game plan, it benefits Garcia in this matchup. Garcia has the edge in both power and reach, and I expect him to get on the front foot early, regularly blitzing into the pocket with big combinations. If he can keep Nelson moving back, it significantly neutralizes his offense and the takedown threat, allowing Garcia to let his hands go. I expect Garcia to earn yet another highlight reel knockout.
Natalia Silva by Decision: Another intriguing matchup; this is a true test of speed vs. power. While Silva is quick, flashy, and technical, Andrade uses power and aggression to get the job done. While Andrade has turned things around in her last two fights, I think this is an excellent matchup for Silva. Andrade can often be aggressive to a fault, throwing constant overhands and hooks while rushing forward. Silva is far too technical to get drawn into a sloppy brawl, where Andrade does her best work. I expect Silva to remain elusive and avoid the early barrages from Andrade, wear her down with kicks and combos, and earn an impressive victory.
Burns vs. Brady Not to Go The Distance: This is a fascinating matchup with significant implications for the weight class. The winner of this bout will put themselves into the title conversation and much closer to the belt. While both are well-rounded fighters, they’re both world-class grapplers, and that’s what I’m most intrigued about. Neither man has ever been submitted in their professional career, typically holding the grappling advantage in their matchups. While Brady doesn’t hold the same brawling reputation Burns does, often, when two dominant grapplers meet in the octagon, they cancel out on the ground and go to war on the feet. Whether that’s the outcome or we’re treated to a grappling showcase, I’d be surprised to see the judges involved in this fight. Both men push a heavy pace and are looking to earn a highlight victory and move up the rankings, so one way or another, someone is going to sleep on Saturday night.