UFC 304 Preview
The UFC hits Manchester, England, this weekend with an outstanding pay-per-view card. Loaded from top to bottom with fantastic matchups, plenty of highlights are sure to be created on Saturday. In the co-main event, we’ll see a long-awaited rematch, this time for interim gold, between Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes. In the main event, we’ll witness yet another rematch coming off a controversial first meeting when reigning champion Leon Edwards takes on surging contender Belal Muhammad. With excellent fights spread throughout the card, we’re going to take a look at select preliminary bouts and the full main card.
Prelims
#6 Muhammad Mokaev vs. #8 Manel Kape
Flyweight Bout
Muhammad Mokaev: 12-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Manel Kape: 19-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Mokaev is undefeated and has UFC victories over #7 ranked Flyweight Alex Perez (25-9-0), #11 ranked Flyweight Tim Elliott (21-13-1), and Jafel Filho (16-3-0). He’s a dominant grappler with fantastic wrestling and solid striking. He’s a tenacious wrestler, willing to work hard along the cage to secure takedowns. Mokaev has great chain grappling, often stringing together takedowns, especially in the clinch. When he does get the fight to the floor, he’s more likely to pursue submissions than a ground-and-pound finish, using heavy control to keep his opponent beneath him. Training at KHK MMA Team, he has excellent cardio and can easily grapple for 15 minutes. Mokaev pushes a heavy pace and is always dangerous, with most of his finishes coming after the first round.
Kape has won four of his last five fights and holds UFC wins over Ode’ Osbourne (12-7-0), Felipe dos Santos (8-1-0), and David Dvorak (20-6-0). He is a former Rizin Bantamweight champion and is a fantastic, flashy striker. He’s constantly looking to counterstrike, throwing every shot with purpose and deadly accuracy. Kape has excellent distance management, switches stances constantly, and will often blitz in with big shots before returning to range. He has heavy power for Flyweight and doesn’t telegraph anything, frequently timing his shots when his opponent enters his range. Training at Xtreme Couture, he won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges but has a solid submission game and can be dangerous off his back. Kape takes some time to get going, but once he finds his rhythm, he heats up and lets his hands go.
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio
Light Heavyweight Bout
Modestas Bukauskas: 15-6-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Marcin Prachnio: 17-7-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Bukauskas has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Tyson Pedro (10-5-0), Zac Pauga (7-3-0), and Andreas Michailidis (16-7-0). He is a technical kickboxer, always in perpetual motion, constantly feinting and making great use of his footwork. He has a solid arsenal of kicks and will often do most of his damage from range, only entering the pocket to unload combinations. Bukauskas throws everything with power but is an accurate striker, never wasting energy or point-fighting. He’s at his best coming forward, controlling the distance and speed of the fight. Training at Gintas Combat, he favors a slower-paced, technical kickboxing match and has not attempted a takedown in his UFC tenure. Bukauskas tends to favor power to volume, having been outstruck in all his wins in the promotion.
Prachnio has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #8 ranked Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. (14-5-0), Devin Clark (14-9-0), and William Knight (11-6-0). A karate-style fighter, he’s constantly switching stances and attacking with his lead hand and leg. He’s always moving, doing a great job of holding the center and moving in and out of the pocket without taking significant damage. Prachnio mixes up his shots well, attacking the head, body, and legs evenly without telegraphing or loading up. Training at Tatsujin Dojo, he’s constantly looking to set up his lead hand, often dipping his head to avoid strikes and counter with looping shots. He has solid cardio and pushes a consistent pace throughout, landing, on average, about 74 significant strikes per fight in his last five appearances. Prachnio can produce flash finishes, holding six finish wins within the first two minutes of the fight.
Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda
Featherweight Bout
Nathaniel Wood: 20-6-0, 9 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Daniel Pineda: 28-15-0, 9 KO/TKO, 19 Sub.
Wood has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Andre Fili (24-11-0), Charles Jourdain (15-8-1), and Charles Rosa (16-8-0). He’s a well-rounded scrapper with technical striking and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s constantly moving, feinting, and switching stances, often looking to counterstrike. Wood will throw constant leg kicks before darting into the pocket to throw combinations, continually looking to land shots with his lead hand. Training at GB Top Team, he’s averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, has excellent transitions and reversals, and is tough to take down, having defended 70% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He has excellent cardio, pushes a consistent pace throughout the fight, and always remains technical. Wood has landed, on average, about 93 significant strikes in his last five fights and loves to hang in the pocket and let his hands go.
Pineda has won two of his last five bouts with one no-contest and has UFC victories over Herbert Burns (11-5-0) and Tucker Lutz (12-4-0). A wild fighter, he has big-time power in his hands and a dangerous submission game. He comes out guns blazing, throwing every shot with power and regularly attempting spinning attacks. Pineda is always coming forward and looking to land bombs, never trying just to touch his opponent. He’s averaging nearly two takedowns landed and two submissions attempted per fifteen minutes and is very active in top position. Training at 4oz Fight Club, he’s always dangerous on top and will constantly hunt for his opponent’s neck, with twelve of his nineteen submissions coming via some form of choke. Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories, with seventeen coming in round one, and is always dangerous.
Main Card
#6 Arnold Allen vs. #10 Giga Chikadze
Featherweight Bout
Arnold Allen: 19-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Giga Chikadze: 15-3-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Allen has won three of his last five outings with UFC victories over #9 ranked Featherweight Calvin Kattar (23-8-0), #11 ranked Lightweight Dan Hooker (23-12-0), and Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0). He is an excellent technical striker, possessing serious speed, power in his hands, and a solid arsenal of kicks. He has some of the best striking defense in the UFC, only absorbing, on average, about three significant strikes per minute, with a significant strike defense percentage of 61%. Allen throws lengthy combinations, rarely throwing single shots, and often mixes in head and body kicks at the end of his combinations. He throws everything with substantial power but remains accurate, allowing him to push a heavy pace across an entire fight. Training at BKK Fighters, he averages over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes and seems equally comfortable on the ground as he is on the feet. Allen is seemingly never in one place for long, constantly moving and attacking from different angles, making himself incredibly elusive.
Chikadze has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #15 ranked Featherweight Edson Barboza (24-12-0), Cub Swanson (29-14-0), and Alex Caceres (21-15-0). He’s an excellent kickboxer with heavy hands and devastating body kicks. Training at Kings MMA, Chikadze is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 38-8-0 with 22 knockouts. He’s unlikely to take the fight to the mat but has excellent takedown defense and is strong inside the clinch, able to land significant damage without much space. Holding a third Dan black belt in Goju-ryu karate, he has exceptionally educated feet and never telegraphs his attacks. He’s proven to possess one-shot knockout power in both his hands and kicks, capable of finishing opponents with kicks to the body. He’s outstruck his opponents in all his UFC victories and is capable of throwing both with volume and power.
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Middleweight Bout
Christian Leroy Duncan: 10-1-0, 8 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Gregory Rodrigues: 15-5-0, 10 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Duncan has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Denis Tiuliulin (10-9-0), Claudio Ribeiro (11-5-0), and Dusko Todorovic (12-4-0). He’s a flashy striker with power in both hands and an impressive arsenal of attacks. He’s highly unpredictable, constantly moving and switching stances while attempting spinning and jumping attacks. Duncan is highly accurate and efficient, throwing every shot purposefully without ever loading up or overextending. He’s excellent at controlling the center, constantly pressuring his opponent while fighting behind his jab. Training at Ranger MMA Academy, he’s willing to grapple and will occasionally shoot takedowns, advancing very quickly and raining down ground and pound when in top position. Duncan has excellent cardio and carries his power across all three rounds, capable of creating a highlight at any moment.
Rodrigues has won three of his last five outings, with UFC wins coming over Junyong Park (17-5-0), Chidi Njokuani (22-9-0), and Brad Tavares (20-10-0). “Robocop” has one of the best nicknames in MMA and some of the most devastating power in the promotion. He fights with a powerful kickboxing style, is willing to engage both in the pocket and at range, and has quick kicks for someone his size. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Rodrigues has knockout ability at all times and can seemingly find finishes from nowhere. He has excellent range management and movement and can land in the pocket and return to range unscathed. He has solid accuracy and volume to match his power, landing significant strikes with 55% accuracy in his UFC tenure. Rodrigues has an excellent chin and is more than willing to eat a shot to land one, regularly getting drawn into wild brawls.
#15 King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
Lightweight Bout
King Green: 32-15-1, 11 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Paddy Pimblett: 21-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Green has won three of his last five fights with one draw and has wins over Tony Ferguson (26-10-0), Jim Miller (37-18-0), and Grant Dawson (21-2-1). Training at Icon MMA, he is an excellent boxer, picking his opponents apart with quick combinations and damaging straights. He’s rarely in a boring fight, always willing to go to the center of the octagon and exchange blows. Green has been awarded Performance of the Night three times and Fight of the Night four times, backing up his scrappy tendencies. He also has excellent wrestling to supplement his striking, having defended 74% of takedowns attempted on him, and has a solid submission game and top control. He’s efficient both on offense and defense, having landed 52% of his significant strikes attempted and defended 62% of significant strikes thrown at him in the UFC. Green does a great job mixing up his strikes, attacking the head and the body evenly, and throwing the occasional kick to finish a combination.
Pimblett is on a seven-fight win streak and has UFC victories over Jared Gordon (20-7-0), Kazula Vargas (12-5-0), and Jordan Leavitt (11-3-0). He is a very aggressive striker, always throwing everything with power and using a variety of wild kicks. He throws in combination and is willing to brawl in the pocket, often blitzing forward and swinging wild hooks. Training at Next Generation UK, Pimblett is an excellent grappler, and in his promotional tenure, he’s averaging about one takedown landed and over one submission attempted per 15 minutes. He has excellent takedowns and advances position quickly on the ground, always looking to find a finish. He’s very creative on the ground and is one of the most dangerous men in the sport to have on your back, regularly securing chokes with impressive speed. Six of Pimblett’s nine career submissions are rear naked chokes, and he also has two flying triangle wins, so if he can get a hold of his opponent’s neck, the fight is practically over.
(IC) Tom Aspinall vs. #4 Curtis Blaydes
Interim Heavyweight Title Bout
Tom Aspinall: 14-3-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Curtis Blaydes: 18-4-0, 13 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Aspinall has won four of his last five outings with UFC victories over #3 ranked Heavyweight Alexander Volkov (38-10-0), #5 ranked Heavyweight Sergei Pavlovich (18-3-0), and #8 ranked Heavyweight Marcin Tybura (25-8-0). He’s a well-rounded fighter who is comfortable anywhere and constantly pursues a finish. He’s a fast starter but won’t get wild, never overextending on his shots and always keeping his head off the centerline. Aspinall has excellent footwork and distance management, absorbing, on average, just six significant strikes per fight in his UFC tenure. He has 100% takedown defense and accuracy, can land shots in open space, and advances position very quickly on the ground. Training at Team Kaobon, he’s never been to the third round in his career, with his last four fights not leaving the first round. Aspinall has racked up six Performance of the Night bonuses in just eight UFC fights and has 13 first-round finishes in his career.
Blaydes has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #3 ranked Heavyweight Alexander Volkov (38-10-0), #7 ranked Heavyweight Jailton Almeida (21-3-0), and #12 ranked Heavyweight Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5-0). A dominant wrestler, he’s constantly looking to take the fight to the mat and control the pace. He’s averaging nearly six takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and secures them quickly, capable of landing shots in the open and along the fence. Blaydes favors power to volume on the feet, throwing straight, tight shots and constantly moving, feinting, and switching stances. He fights behind his jab, remaining technical and composed while throwing every shot with fight-ending power. Training at Elevation Fight Team, he looks to smother his opponent and drag them into deep waters, not necessarily forcing a finish. Blaydes has the UFC Heavyweight records for most takedowns landed (62) and most control time (1:20:06), making takedown attempts essentially inevitable.
(C) Leon Edwards vs. #2 Belal Muhammad
Welterweight Title Bout
Leon Edwards: 22-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Belal Muhammad: 23-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Edwards has been undefeated since 2015 with one no-contest and has UFC wins over #1 ranked Welterweight Kamaru Usman (20-4-0), #13 ranked Welterweight Vicente Luque (22-10-1), and #14 ranked Lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (32-16-0). He is a very polished striker, holding the sixth fastest finish in UFC history, scoring an 8-second KO in his second UFC fight, and is dangerous across all 25 minutes. He has excellent volume striking, outlanding eight of his last ten opponents and averaging about 66 significant strikes landed in his last five fights. Edwards has excellent takedown defense and is most comfortable on his feet, but is solid on the mat and willing to grapple. Averaging over one takedown landed per fifteen minutes, he has heavy ground and pound and holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Training with Renegade MMA, he throws every shot with purpose and won’t overextend, remaining technical throughout the fight. Edwards has gone five rounds in three of his last five bouts and is more than prepared to go to war again.
Muhammad is on a 9-fight win streak with one draw and has UFC victories over #6 ranked Welterweight Gilbert Burns (22-7-0), #8 ranked Welterweight Sean Brady (16-1-0), and #9 ranked Welterweight Stephen Thompson (17-7-1). Primarily a wrestler, he prefers to take the fight to the mat, using blast double-leg takedowns to drag his opponents to the floor and do damage. He has heavy top pressure, advances position quickly, and never puts himself in dangerous spots. On the feet, Muhammad uses a heavy-handed boxing style, remaining technical and throwing in combination, often using his striking to set up his grappling. Training at Valle Flow Striking, he’s landing, on average, 75 significant strikes landed in his last five outings and pushes a consistent pace throughout. He’s exceptionally defensively sound, holding the second-highest takedown defense percentage in UFC history at 93%. Muhammad has outstruck seven of his last ten opponents and is always looking to wear down and outpace his foe.
Best Bets
Modestas Bukauskas Moneyline: This is easily one of the card's most underrated matchups. I expect fireworks inside the cage. Prachnio uses a very footwork-based karate style, not necessarily moving slowly but utilizing distance and space to do most of his work. Bukauskas is more of a pressure fighter, always looking to come forward and do damage, which presents serious issues for Prachnio’s style. If Prachnio can’t get out to space and use his footwork to set up his kicking game, he won’t be able to utilize a significant portion of his skillset. I expect Bukauskas to push the pace early, shut down Prachnio’s footwork, and secure a victory.
Green vs. Pimblett to Not Go the Distance: This is a very tough fight to pick a winner in. While, like many fans, I have no desire to root for Pimblett, his style offers many issues for Green. While Green has a definite advantage on the feet, Pimblett has a clear advantage on the ground. Both fighters constantly throw caution to the wind and are very brash and cocky, unwilling to back down. Due to this, I’d be shocked to see this go the full fifteen minutes. Whether Green catches him on the feet or Pimblett finds a submission, I expect someone to earn a finish victory in this matchup.
Tom Aspinall by KO/TKO: While I’m confident in Aspinall, I don’t believe the moneyline odds tell the whole story. Blaydes is extremely dangerous, with fantastic wrestling and serious power in his hands. I’m shocked to see this much distance in the lines, but I’m not surprised bettors are siding with Aspinall to such an extent. Aspinall is considerably more well-rounded, possessing not just wrestling and power but an excellent submission game, crisp hands, and technical kickboxing. While I believe he can finish Blaydes on the mat, he has the takedown defense to keep it standing, where Blaydes is much less comfortable. If he keeps it on the feet, I expect him to be far too fast and strong for Blaydes to survive, and Aspinall should be able to put him away.
Leon Edwards Moneyline: This is by far the most challenging call on this card. While easy to hate, Muhammad has certainly earned this opportunity and is a serious threat to Edwards’s title reign. The biggest question coming into this bout is about the effectiveness of Muhammad’s wrestling. Edwards seems to have a clear advantage on the feet, but he could be in serious trouble if he finds himself in the bottom position for extended periods. While Muhammad is an excellent grappler, he doesn’t offer much in terms of submission threat and isn’t exactly known for mauling opponents with ground and pound. Leon has proven he will not simply accept the position on his back and has shown his ability to defend takedowns in his matchups with Kamaru Usman. If Edwards can fend off the takedowns and keep it standing, he can not only secure another title defense, but quite possibly a highlight-reel victory.