UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
The UFC returns to the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi with an outstanding Fight Night card. With fantastic matchups, finishers, and rising prospects throughout the card, there’s sure to be plenty of highlights come Sunday morning. In the co-main event, we’ll see the red-hot Shara Magomedov face off with the heavy-handed Michal Oleksiejczuk. In the main event, we’ll witness a highly anticipated showdown between top contender Cory Sandhagen and rising star Umar Nurmagomedov. From top to bottom, there are plenty of fighters vying to make their name on the biggest stage in MMA. Let’s take a look at the fights on the main card.
Joel Álvarez vs. Elves Brener
Lightweight Bout
Joel Álvarez: 20-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 17 Sub.
Elves Brener: 16-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Álvarez has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over Joe Duffy (16-5-0), Marc Diakiese (17-7-0), and Thiago Moises (18-8-0). A well-rounded, lengthy fighter, he’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes. He throws everything with knockout intentions and can do damage at range or in the pocket, landing heavy kicks from distance and brutal knees on the inside. Training at Bandog Fight Club, Álvarez has an excellent variety of attacks and will constantly add kicks to the end of his combinations. Despite his exceptional submission game, he rarely pursues takedowns and has not landed one in his promotional tenure. Instead, he tends to find his submissions via reversals or openings off his back. Fifteen of his seventeen submissions have come via choke, and he can find submissions with blinding speed if he gets to his opponent’s neck.
Brener has won four of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over Zubaira Tukhugov (20-6-1), Guram Kutateladze (12-4-0), and Kaynan Kruschewsky (15-3-0). He’s a heavy-handed striker with a slick submission game who always pursues a finish. He throws everything with power and is willing to get wild, regularly throwing jumping knees and kicks. Brener has solid cardio, pushing a consistent pace throughout, and has proven exceptionally durable and capable of surviving in deep waters. He’s averaging over one takedown landed per fight, is very strong in the clinch, and can find submissions quickly on the mat. Training at Chute Boxe, he varies his shots well, attacking the head, legs, and body, regularly changing stances to set up his kicks. Brener has one-shot knockout power and is at his most dangerous early on, with nine of his fourteen finishes coming in round one.
#7 Mackenzie Dern vs. #10 Loopy Godínez
Women’s Strawweight Bout
Mackenzie Dern: 13-5-0, 0 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Loopy Godínez: 12-4-0, 1 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Dern has won two of her last five outings and has UFC victories over #3 ranked Strawweight Virna Jandiroba (21-3-0), #9 ranked Strawweight Angela Hill (17-13-0), and Tecia Pennington (13-7-0). Easily the most credentialed grappler in the Strawweight division, she’s won gold medals at the ADCC World Championship, World Jiu-Jitsu Championship, European Championship, and more. Training at RVCA, she’ll do whatever she can to get the fight to the mat, including pulling guard or jumping for submissions while standing. Dern has excellent top control, transitions quickly, and never puts herself in bad spots on the ground. She tends to headhunt on the feet, often blitzing forward to throw combinations. She’s willing to eat a shot to land one and has decent power in her hands, but she usually uses her striking to close the distance and set up a takedown. With six of her seven submission wins coming in round one, Dern is at her most dangerous early on.
Godínez has won four of her last five fights and has UFC victories over #11 ranked Strawweight Tabatha Ricci (10-2-0), Ariane Carnelossi (15-3-0), and Loma Lookboonmee (9-3-0). A well-rounded scrapper, she’s always coming forward, looking to land offense. She remains technical throughout, always keeping her guard high and her shots tight and straight. Godínez has excellent footwork and distance management, typically holding the center of the octagon and cutting off the cage. Training at Lobo Gym, she’s averaging over three takedowns landed per fight and has landed five or more takedowns in a single fight four times in the UFC. She’s tough to take down and has excellent clinch striking, particularly her knees. She’s fought eleven times in just three years in the promotion and always leaves it all inside the cage.
Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa
Welterweight Bout
Tony Ferguson: 26-10-0, 13 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Michael Chiesa: 18-7-0, 0 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Ferguson has not won any of his last five bouts and has wins over former UFC Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (25-14-0), #14 ranked Lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (32-16-0), and #15 ranked Featherweight Edson Barboza (24-12-0). He is one of the sport's most beloved and respected fighters, going on a 12-fight win streak between 2013 and 2019. “El Cucuy” is well known for his unique style, moving awkwardly on the feet and doing odd things like throwing imaginary sand at his opponent. Ferguson has an excellent jab and solid boxing and is always willing to engage on the feet, fighting with a “kill or be killed” mentality. He has fantastic grappling, excellent wrestling, and one of the best submission games in the sport. With all 8 of his career submission wins coming via some form of choke, he’s especially dangerous with unorthodox submissions, particularly the d’arce choke. Ferguson is highly experienced and comfortable where the fight ends up.
Chiesa has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #7 ranked Lightweight Beneil Dariush (22-6-1), #12 ranked Welterweight Neil Magny (29-12-0), and Jim Miller (37-18-0). He’s a dangerous grappler with excellent wrestling and submissions. Averaging over three takedowns landed and one submission attempted per fifteen minutes, he’s most comfortable on the mat and won’t waste much time before taking it there. Chiesa is in perpetual motion on the feet, throwing lots of single shots and using his striking to set up his grappling, often striking into the clinch. He’s active on top, constantly looking to advance position and set up submissions. Training at Sikjitsu, he has excellent scrambles, smothering top pressure, and great transitions, regularly putting himself in advantageous positions out of grappling exchanges. Eight of Chiesa’s ten submissions have come via rear naked choke, and he’s incredibly dangerous if he can reach his opponent’s back.
#4 Marlon Vera vs. #6 Deiveson Figueiredo
Bantamweight Bout
Marlon Vera: 23-9-1, 8 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Deiveson Figueiredo: 23-3-1, 9 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Vera has won three of his last five fights and has wins over current UFC Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley (18-1-0), #9 ranked Bantamweight Rob Font (20-8-0), and #13 ranked Bantamweight Dominick Cruz (24-4-0). He is an experienced veteran with a diverse striking game and a granite chin. In his last five fights, he has absorbed, on average, about 167 significant strikes, something utterly absurd considering he won three of those bouts. Vera improves as the fight continues and can land damage in the pocket or at range, possessing particularly dangerous clinch striking. He stays technical across five rounds and regularly switches stances, holding power in both hands but never telegraphing or loading up. He supplies his opponent with a constant dose of kicks, constantly throwing various attacks with his legs, all with heavy power. Vera has dangerous BJJ and slick submissions, so although he’s most comfortable on the feet, he can find a finish anywhere.
Deiveson Figueiredo has won three of his last five bouts and has UFC victories over #2 ranked Flyweight Brandon Moreno (21-8-2), #6 ranked Flyweight Alex Perez (25-9-0), and #9 ranked Bantamweight Rob Font (20-8-0). He possesses unusual power for his size, throwing devastating hooks and kicks, often to the body. He used this power to tear through the Flyweight division, holding the most knockdowns in Flyweight history with 11, and is tied for the most finishes at Flyweight, with 7. Training with Team Figueiredo, he is willing to engage in grappling scenarios, has a solid guard on the bottom, and can do significant damage from the top when not pursuing a submission. Figueiredo has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and seems to find submissions out of nowhere. He quickly closes the distance on the feet and can land severe damage without much space, usually with his hands. Before his trilogy with Moreno, Figueiredo finished seven of his ten UFC bouts and always looks to close the show early.
Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Middleweight Bout
Shara Magomedov: 13-0-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Michal Oleksiejczuk: 19-8-0, 14 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Magomedov is undefeated and has UFC victories over Bruno Silva (23-11-0) and Antonio Trocoli (12-4-0). He’s a devastating, diverse striker with a fantastic arsenal of kicks. He’s constantly moving and switching stances, never remaining in one spot for long. Magomedov is excellent at range, peppering his opponent with lead leg attacks before blitzing in to throw bombs. Training at GOR MMA, he rarely initiates grappling exchanges, often accepting position on his back and throwing strikes. He regularly looks to land spinning attacks, particularly elbows and backfists. Magomedov has three wins within the first minute of the fight and always comes out guns blazing.
Oleksiejczuk has won two of his last five outings and has UFC victories over Chidi Njokuani (23-10-0), Cody Brundage (10-6-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (16-6-0). He is an aggressive striker who’s always coming forward and throwing combinations. He has an excellent chin and considerable power in his hands, regularly entering the pocket to throw damaging, looping hooks. Oleksiejczuk has excellent head movement and footwork, never wastes energy, and throws everything with purpose. Training at Ankos MMA, he won’t stay at range long and virtually never throws kicks, mainly using his hands to land damage. Eleven of his fifteen career finishes have come inside the first round, so he’s definitely at his most dangerous early. Oleksiejczuk holds the center well and does a great job cutting off the cage, always stalking his opponents and looking for openings to throw big combinations.
#2 Cory Sandhagen vs. #10 Umar Nurmagomedov
Bantamweight Bout
Cory Sandhagen: 17-4-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Umar Nurmagomedov: 17-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Sandhagen has won three of his last five outings and has UFC victories over #4 ranked Bantamweight Chito Vera (23-9-1), #7 ranked Bantamweight Song Yadong (21-8-1), and #12 ranked Bantamweight Mario Bautista (14-2-0). He is a top-level striker, constantly moving and setting traps for his opponent. He can land damage from range with his arsenal of kicks or on the inside with devastating knees and elbows. Training with Elevation Fight Team, Sandhagen has excellent cardio and can push a heavy pace across five rounds while remaining technical and keeping his strikes straight and tight. He’s constantly switching stances and never telegraphs his shots, regularly mixing kicks in at the end of punch combinations. He’s willing to grapple and will pursue takedowns, has solid top control, and rarely puts himself in bad positions on the ground. Sandhagen has only lost to current or former champions in his UFC tenure and will go toe-to-toe with anybody.
Nurmagomedov is undefeated and has UFC victories over Raoni Barcelos (18-5-0), Nate Maness (16-3-0), and Sergey Morozov (19-5-0). He’s a technical, well-rounded fighter with big power in his hands and dominant wrestling. He’s constantly switching stances and throwing lead leg attacks, always moving and never staying in one spot for long. Training at AKA, Nurmagomedov has fantastic takedowns and top control, often landing takedowns in open space and quickly advancing position. He’s averaging over four takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and remains patient in top position, always looking for openings to land ground and pound or grab a submission. He has devastating power in his hands and can produce a flash knockout at any moment. Six of Nurmagomedov’s seven submissions have been via rear naked choke, so he’ll regularly look to take his opponent’s back.
Best Bets
Joel Álvarez Moneyline: A fantastic matchup of two wild fighters, this fight will likely be bonus-worthy. Both are well-rounded and willing to brawl on the feet while also possessing dangerous submission games. Although both have more submission victories than knockouts, neither is the type to shoot a takedown right out the gate, and I expect most of this fight to play out on the feet. Álvarez has a five-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, something seriously beneficial for a lengthy fighter who loves to kick. I believe Álvarez has the advantage on both the feet and the ground, so if he can pressure Brener and force him to grapple, he could easily find a submission. It is essential to consider Brener’s impressive durability, which is why I’m choosing moneyline over a finish. Regardless, I believe Álvarez has the skill and size to overwhelm Brener and secure the victory.
Deiveson Figueiredo by Decision: This fight is one of the more intriguing matchups on the card. Both are very well-rounded, tenured, and durable. Vera's consistent problem is that he tends to start slow, mostly looking for reads early on instead of landing offense. While this is brought up before all of his fights, it could be a significant problem against Figueiredo. Figueiredo has gone five rounds multiple times and should have little issue going three, meaning he will likely push a heavy pace throughout. While the size difference feels like it would be significant, Vera has just a one-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, and with Figueiredo always looking to get into the pocket, Vera won’t be able to throw his typical long combinations and kicks. I anticipate Figueiredo getting on the gas early, throwing power shots, and pursuing takedowns. I expect him to get the fight to the mat, wearing down and neutralizing Vera and walking away with another victory in his new weight class.
Cory Sandhagen Moneyline: This is the most challenging fight on the card to predict. Much of the mystery lies in Nurmagomedov’s game plan; will he engage the striking or look to wrestle from the opening bell? Sandhagen definitely has the striking advantage, having consistently proven to be one of the best strikers in the division. He’s also proven to be a highly capable wrestler, massively improving his grappling skills since his loss to Aljamain Sterling. This is also the first five-round fight of Nurmagomedov’s career, and with the level of skill between these two, I expect it to reach the championship rounds. Picking against a fighter with the last name Nurmagomedov is always a significant risk, but I believe Sandhagen has the ability to keep this fight on the feet where he can pick Nurmagomedov off. While I don’t anticipate Nurmagomedov gassing out, I expect Sandhagen to outpace and outstrike him and ultimately earn the upset victory.