UFC 270 Preview
The first pay-per view card of the year has arrived, and it is absolutely loaded. There’s two fights on this card, though, that most people will be watching for, being the main and co-main events. In the co-main, flyweight champion Brandon Moreno looks to defend his belt in a trilogy fight with rival Deiveson Figueiredo. In the main event, what’s probably the most hyped fight since the Brock Lesnar era, Francis Ngannou will defend his strap against the red hot Ciryl Gane. From top to bottom, this card is stacked with excellent fights, and should be a great way to start the new year.
This is a particularly short article due to multiple changes to the card on the Thursday and Friday, resulting in both the prelims and main card completely changing. Due to how late notice these changes were, there wasn’t enough time to do the research required for the fights replacing the ones removed.
Prelims
This preview was written when this fight was first scheduled, the Lewis vs. Daukaus Fight Night. Very little time has passed, and the matchup is the exact same, so essentially nothing has changed since this was written. You can check out the original article here: Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry
Bantamweight Bout
Raoni Barcelos: 16-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Victor Henry: 21-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
A fight I’m surprised hasn’t garnered more attention, this is the 6th fight of the night, and a good one at that. Both fighters have a wealth of experience beyond the UFC, both having challenged for titles in other promotions. Raoni Barcelos comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, taking his first loss in 6 years to fellow prospect Timur Valiev (18-2-0) in June 2020. Barcelos, a former RFA Bantamweight Champion, has notable victories over Said Nurmagomedov (14-2-0) and Bobby Moffett (14-6-0). Training out of Rizzo RVT, Barcelos is dangerous wherever the fight goes. He has great striking, using a Muay Thai style and often throws devastating hooks, uppercuts, and leg kicks. He also is an excellent grappler, with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as some quality wrestling mixed in. Barcelos is a high energy, high pressure fighter that is constantly moving forward, looking to either land big strikes or a takedown whenever the opportunity presents itself. Victor Henry comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, with this being his UFC debut. His most notable victory being over top UFC prospect Kyler Phillips (9-2-0), this is by no way Henry’s introduction to the big leagues of MMA. Henry has fought in King of the Cage, BAMMA, Pancrase, Deep, and Rizin, even fighting for a title in a losing effort against Shintaro Ishiwatari (26-9-4) in Pancrase. Henry, training out of UWF-USA, seems to be a pretty pure MMA fighter, slightly favoring ground exchanges, but still very willing to go at it on the feet. Henry has good hands and likes to throw a lot of head and low kicks, as well as an excellent ability to throw strikes, particularly knees, in the clinch. He also seems more likely to get a takedown from the clinch than out in the open, utilizing a lot of bodylocks and trips. Like Barcelos, he’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes. Barcelos is a huge favorite at -490, with Henry the underdog at +370. Barcelos somehow managed to become an even bigger favorite than when this fight was originally scheduled. While Henry has plenty of experience, I think Barcelos is just a bit better in every aspect of the fight, with more technical striking and seemingly higher level grappling, especially in the BJJ department. Despite Barcelos seeing decisions in his last three fights, I like the under 2.5, as well As Barcelos by KO/TKO. I see him really putting on a show in this fight, whether its on the ground or the feet, and picking up the victory by finish.
Picks: Barcelos by KO/TKO, Under 2.5Main Card
Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles
Welterweight Bout
Michael Morales: 12-0-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Trevin Giles: 14-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
The second fight of the prelims, this is a great matchup of up-and-comers. Michael Morales comes into this fight undefeated, although with limited big stage experience, mostly fighting in regional promotions in South America. His last fight was a victory on Dana White’s Contender Series over Nikolay Veretennikov (9-4-0), which he won by an impressive unanimous decision. Morales is known for his technical kickboxing on his feet, often staying patient and fighting behind his jab until finding opportunities to let his hands go. Morales is a good combo striker, and does a great job setting things up with his jab, throwing a lot of one-two combos or blitzing forward to throw long, devastating hooks and straights. Training at Xtreme Fitness Machala, Morales is also a solid grappler, focusing on the ground and pound when the fight hits the mat. He does seem to struggle a little bit with wrestling out in the open, as in his Contender Series bout he failed to finish on two single leg takedown attempts. He did have great success in the clinch though, with three powerful bodylock slams in which he practically ragdolled his opponent. He has a great sense of urgency when fighting, clearly knowing when to go in for the kill, and is constantly looking for the finish but not gassin himself out in doing so. Trevin Giles has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and has wins over James Krause (28-9-0), Ryan Spann (19-7-0), and Brendan Allen (17-5-0). Giles is an aggressive boxer on the feet, often waiting to find an angle before exploding forward with huge, hook-heavy combinations. Giles has good power in both hands, and seemingly never puts punches out there to touch his opponent, throwing every punch with fight-ending intentions. He is also a talented grappler, with great top control and an ability to go into deep waters on the bottom, proven by him surviving James Krause on his back for practically half a round. He will usually use his ground and pound, but will also pursue chokes on the ground to finish his opponent. Training at W4R Training Center, Like his opponent, Giles relentlessly pursues the finish, and is willing to stay standing or go to the ground to find it. This has sometimes been a problem for him, gassing himself out and getting sloppy with his striking. Outside of his most recent loss to hot prospect Dricus Du Plessis (16-2-0), he has only lost to veterans in Gerald Meerschaert (34-14-0) and Zak Cummings (24-7-0). Michael Morales is a very slight favorite at -120, with Giles the underdog at -110. The odds on this fight are so tight for a reason; we really have no idea what to expect out of Morales. This is his first fight on a big stage, and against an experienced opponent as well. Giles tendency to get sloppy with his boxing could play to Morales’ favor with his more technical kickboxing, but at the same time Morales could find himself in serious trouble if Giles gets on top of him. I’ll definitely take under 2.5 rounds, both guys always go for the finish so the only way I see this fight going the distance is if both guys gas out. I will very cautiously pick Morales to win, I think if he can stay technical on the feet he could pick Giles apart, he just really can’t get taken down.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Morales -120Cody Stamann vs. Said Nurmagomedov
Bantamweight Bout
Cody Stamann: 19-4-1, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Said Nurmagomedov: 14-2-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
If you see the name Nurmagomedov, it’s practically guaranteed to be an entertaining fight. Said Nurmagomedov has won 4 of his last 5, with his most notable victory coming over Ricardo Ramos (15-4-0). While his last name is practically synonymous with dominant wrestling, he actually favors the stand up, where he utilizes flashy kickboxing to get the job done. Training at Akhmat Fight Team, Nurmagomedov has solid power in both his hands and kicks, and loves to throw out wild attacks like flying double knees and spinning kicks. He is Dagastani, so he does of course possess grappling abilities, showing solid wrestling and top control. He is most dangerous on the feet at range, where he can utilize his kicking game and speed to damage his opponents. While some of his more wild attacks may appear to be for show, he does a lot of damage with his spinning attacks, especially to the body. Thanks to his wrestling capabilities, he has good takedown defense and does a good job of keeping the fight where he wants it, when he wants it. Cody Stamann has won 2 of his last 5 with one draw, with his best victories coming over Brian Caraway (21-10-0) and Brian Kelleher 24-12-0). Training at Michigan Top Team, Stamann is best known as a wrestler but does have decent striking, using a boxing style on the feet and often fighting in the pocket and throwing solid punch combinations. He does have the ability to mix in kicks, often throwing front kicks to the head and body. Unsurprisingly for a wrestler, Stamann has solid takedowns and top control, and will use his ground and pound more often than pursuing submissions. Stamann has struggled when given high level competition, with losses against #6 ranked bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili (14-4-0) and current bantamweight “champion” Aljamain Sterling (20-3-0). He has shown an ability to take a shot, having never been knocked out in his entire career and only being finished once by submission. Nurmagomedov is the favorite here at -190, with Stamann the underdog at +160. While Stamann is certainly tough, I think Nurmagomedov’s wrestling background will allow him to keep the fight standing, where he is much more skilled and comfortable than his opponent. He should be able to use his kickboxing to pick off Stamann at range. I’ll take Nurmagomedov moneyline, as well as over 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Nurmagomedov -190, Under 2.5 roundsMichel Pereira vs. Andre Fialho
Welterweight Bout
Michel Pereira: 26-11-0, 10 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Andre Fialho: 14-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Honestly, it almost doesn’t even matter who Michel Pereira fights, because you’re guaranteed to see something weird happen. Michel Pereira comes into this bout having won 3 of his last 5, with victories over Niko Price (15-5-0), Khaos Williams (13-2-0) and Danny Roberts (18-5-0). Pereira is certainly one of the most unique fighters in the UFC, known for his wild antics within the cage including but not limited to backflips, open hand slaps, backflipping onto his opponent, and a lot of taunting. Training with Scorpion Fighting System, beyond all the silliness, Pereira does possess legitimate knockout power in his hands, has powerful kicks, and some flashy kickboxing skills. He also has a large amount of experience outside the UFC, fighting all over Brazil and Asia and seemingly as often as possible, having fought 9 times in 2013 alone, along with 7 times in 2018. His unorthodox style has proved a problem to his opponents, as it’s virtually impossible to know what he’ll throw next, and he throws everything with power. When I watched some of his earlier UFC fights (particularly his loss to Tristan Connelly), it seemed his strange antics were a distraction and waste of energy for him, causing him to gas out and make a lot of simple mistakes. For instance, hitting Diego Sanchez (31-13-0) with an illegal knee, or gassing himself out and getting dominated on the ground against Tristan Connelly (14-7-0). This doesn’t seem to be quite as much of an issue now, as he’s found decision victories in his last two bouts and showed both improved cardio and better focus. Andre Fialho has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with his most notable victory being a knockout win over James Vick (13-6-0). Fialho on the feet is a classic brawler, going straight to the middle of the octagon to throw big right hands and powerful leg kicks. He can take a shot, usually able to recover when he takes big damage. Training at a solid camp in Sanford MMA, Fialho loves to hang in the pocket and exchange, throwing plenty of hooks and mixing in kicks with his punching combos. Fialho isn’t a particularly technical striker, but does have decent counter punching and can throw kicks at range. This is his first UFC fight, but has fought multiple times in both the PFL and Bellator. Michel Pereira is a decent favorite at -280, leaving Fialho the +230 underdog. Pereira is a favorite for a reason, Fialho is coming in on short notice, and making his UFC debut as well. I do think Fialho will make this at least somewhat competitive, but Pereira has much higher level striking and should pick up the win here. I’m taking Pereira by KO/TKO, as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Pereira by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds
Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Flyweight Title Bout
Brandon Moreno: 19-5-2, 3 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Deiveson Figueiredo: 20-2-1, 9 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
The first of two title fights, this is the third consecutive time we’ll see these two go to war. Brandon Moreno has won 4 of his last 5, with 1 draw against his opponent this weekend, Figueiredo. Moreno has victories over #4 ranked flyweight Brandon Royval (13-6-0), #6 ranked flyweight Kai Kara-France (23-9-0), and of course former UFC flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Training at Entram Gym, On the feet Moreno uses crisp boxing and solid combinations to put damage on his opponent, possessing more speed than power like most flyweights. He does a good job of being patient and finding openings, but also has a great chin and can eat some powerful shots. Although he’s pretty technical, he’s not afraid to engage in huge exchanges, really letting his hands go and throwing power shots. Don’t let those 11 submissions fool you, Moreno is not a grappling specialist, he’s well rounded and is comfortable wherever the fight goes. When on the mat, Moreno will use ground and pound but also chase submissions, particularly the rear naked choke which makes up 6 of his 11 submission victories. He has both good wrestling and great BJJ, being a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Moreno also posesses good takedown defense, often able to work out of the positions and show solid clinchwork. He can easily go 5 rounds, not only using his toughness but also his excellent cardio. Deiveson Figueiredo has won 3 of his last five with one draw, with wins over Joseph Benavidez twice (28-8-0) and Alex Perez (24-6-0). Figueiredo possess unusual power for a flyweight, throwing devastating hooks regularly along with powerful kicks, often to the body. This may have to do with him having a pretty large weight cut, even saying he would consider a move to bantamweight. While this does allow him superb power in his hands, it has shown a bit of an effect on his cardio, as in his two fights with Moreno he did fade as the fights went on. Like his opponent, he is also a black belt in BJJ, and often times will drop his opponent on the feet then pursue the submission. Training with Team Figueiredo, He is willing to engage in grappling scenarios, having a solid guard on the bottom and able to do significant damage from the top when not pursuing the submission. Moreno is the favorite at -190, with Figueiredo the underdog at +160. I do think Figueiredo is too big of an underdog, but at the same time, I don’t expect him to win this fight. I think Moreno figured him out in their first fight, which was very evident in Moreno’s dominant victory in their second fight. Figueiredo continues to claim he’s better prepared, but his demeanor is identical to how he acted prior to the second fight, seemingly overlooking Moreno. I’ll take Moreno moneyline, as well as over 3.5 rounds.
Picks: Moreno -190, Over 3.5 roundsFrancis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane
Heavyeweight Title Bout
Francis Ngannou: 16-3-0, 12 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Ciryl Gane: 10-0-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
This fight really needs no introduction: this is what people are watching this card to see. Francis Ngannou has won all 5 of his last bouts, scoring vicious KO wins in all five, most impressively over Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-3-0), Curtis Blaydes (15-3-0) and a championship victory over Stipe Miocic (20-4-0). Ngannou is famous for his unbelievable punching power, able to put guys to sleep with either hand and seemingly with ease. Training at the legendary Xtreme Couture, Ngannou has really reinvented himself since his title loss against Stipe Miocic, greatly improving his boxing skill as well as his patience. He used to have a tendency to come out like a madman, throwing crazy hooks and trying to get his opponent out of there as fast as possible. Now, he’s more content to be patient and stay technical, actually boxing and not just throwing bombs all the time. He also showed improvement in his grappling, particularly his wrestling. He was able to defend takedowns from then-champion Stipe Miocic, keep the fight in his comfort zone on the feet. He also has acquired a bit of a kicking game, putting just as much power into his kicks as his punches. Ciryl Gane has won all of his last 5 bouts, with wins over Alexander Volkov (34-9-0), former UFC heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos (21-9-0), and an interim heavyweight title win over Derrick Lewis (26-8-0). Gane is one of the most technical strikers we’ve ever seen in the heavyweight division, using excellent Muay Thai to damage his opponents. He’s able to throw a variety of strikes from punches, kicks, knees, elbows, and throw all of those with power. While he’s become known for his striking, he also has solid grappling, having 2 submission wins in the UFC, one of which was a heel hook. I’d say his wrestling and BJJ are pretty equal, he has solid takedowns as well as top control, able to do a lot of damage with his ground and pound or submit his opponent. He’s willing to exchange in the pocket but is also excellent at range, throwing plenty of kicks both high and low, as well as crisp combinations with his hands. He went 13-0 professionally in Muay Thai, proving that the last thing you want to do with Ciryl Gane is have a kickboxing match. Surprisingly, Gane is the favorite here at -150, putting the champion Ngannou as the underdog at +125. This may be the hardest fight I’ve ever tried to predict: Gane is more technically sound than Ngannou, but Ngannou has the ultimate equalizer in his unbelievable power. I honestly don’t even know how to pick the rounds, this could easily go 1 round or 5 depending on who’s leading the exchanges. At this point, I think my only choice is to go with my gut and take Ngannou. Having him as a decent size underdog seems ridiculous to me. I’ll take over 2.5 rounds as well, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it was a quick one. If I’m being honest, I think it might be a better idea to just watch this one and not put any money on it, this is such a toss up.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Ngannou +125
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Chikadze
At long last, the UFC is back with it’s first card of 2022. While this card may lack star power, it certainly doesn’t lack in quality fights. This card has a solid variety of both veterans and up-and-comers, as well as an excellent matchup in its main event. Giga Chikadze has been on an asbolute tear in the featherweight division as of late, and he will meet an absolute brick wall in Calvin Kattar. I expect nothing less than fireworks in this main event, and to see some very exciting bouts in the prelims as well.
Prelims
As I did with the last Fight Night, instead of covering the entirety of the prelims, I’m going to pick out the matchups that excite me the most and cover those.
Brian Kelleher vs. Kevin Croom
Bantamweight Bout
Brian Kelleher: 23-12-0, 8 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Kevin Croom: 21-13-0, 6 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
A very interesting matchup, which is evident based on each fighters wealth of experience, I’m very intrigued by this bout. Brian Kelleher has found victories in 3 of his last five fights, and has wins over Ode’ Osbourne (10-4-0), former UFC Bantamweight Champion Renan Barao (34-9-0), and Iuri Alcantara (35-10-0). Kelleher is an over ten year veteran of MMA, having fought across the country in promotions like Ring of Combat, Cage Fury, and even Bellator before finding his way into the UFC in 2017. Despite being listed as a BJJ fighter, “Boom” is very well rounded, with a solid ability to strike on the feet with good power in his hands. Kelleher does have excellent grappling, as 4 of his 7 UFC victories came via Submission, all of the 4 coming in the first round. Training at team Maxum BJJ, he also has great wrestling to complement his Jiu-Jitsu, often securing powerful double leg takedowns to take the fight to the mat. Kelleher has an excellent guillotine, and has 3 victories via 1st round guillotine in the UFC. He’s also very durable and very capable of going a full 15 minutes. Kevin Croom comes into this bout having won 3 of his last 5, although one of those fights was actually a 1st round submission win for Croom, but was overturned to a no contest due to a positive test for marijuana. Croom will be making just his third UFC appearance, but has victories over Roosevelt Roberts (10-3-0), Charles Bennett (30-42-2) and Darrick Minner (26-13-0). He has plenty of experience outside the UFC, with fights in the RFA, LFA, Shooto, and Bellator. Croom tends to be very active on the feet, constantly moving and throwing a lot of hooks, and just going for power shots in general. Croom seems to often set up his grappling with his striking, using voluminous boxing to get in close for a takedown. When the fight is on the ground, Croom will often pursue chokes, particularly rear naked chokes. Kelleher opens as a pretty decent favorite at -300, with Croom a +240 underdog, which makes sense considering Croom wasn’t even fighting up until Thursday. Both fighters have very similar records but I think Kelleher’s guillotine could be the difference maker in this fight. Croom has been caught in quick guillotines before while going for takedowns, and I think with such a short notice bout he’s going to want to take the fight where he’s most comfortable. I do have a bias towards Kelleher, he’s never in a boring fight and is one of my favorite guys to watch, and I think he takes the victory here. Due to Kelleher being such a big favorite, betting rounds has better value, so I’m gonna go with the under. Croom is on such short notice and has a decent amount of first round losses, and with so little time to game plan I don’t know how well he will fare.
Picks: Under 2.5 Rounds, Kelleher -300Charles Rosa vs. TJ Brown
Featherweight Bout
Charles Rosa: 14-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
TJ Brown: 15-8-0, 4 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
The first fight of the card, this is a great matchup that I think will make for a very fun fight. Charles Rosa comes into this bout with wins in 2 of his last 5 fights. Rosa is a pretty unique fighter, coming from a family with a boxing background, yet fighting with a rather karate-like stand up game. While he may not use his lead leg quite as often as other karate fighters, he does have a solid kicking game and good power in his hands. Training out of American Combat Gym and formerly American Top Team, Rosa has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a solid variety of submission victories on his record. His best wins came over Sean Soriano (14-8-0) and Manny Bermudez (14-2-0), both being submission victories. “Boston Strong” has a tendency to go for power as opposed to volume on the feet, will constantly blitz and retreat, and regularly change stances. There’s not really one specific submission he’ll regularly go after, but is extremely skilled from his back as well as on top. TJ Brown has won 3 of his last five, with 1 of those wins coming in the UFC and one on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. His best victory came over Kai Kamaka (9-4-1), but has decent experience having fought in both the RFA and LFA. On the feet, Brown loves to headhunt, throwing powerful shots with his hands and fighting behind his jab, mixing in the occasional head kick. Training at Westside Fight Team, “Downtown” has shown great grappling in his career, with powerful, damaging takedowns and very good ability with chokes. Despite his grappling prowess, Brown does seem to enjoy getting into exchanges on the feet, which is exemplified in his fight with Kamaka where he took a razor thin split decision win. When the fight does reach the mat, Brown will usually chase either an arm triangle or a rear naked choke, two submissions he has pulled off multiple times in his career. He can be a bit unpredictable though, as he has quality grappling but also some wild, brawling tendencies on the feet. TJ Brown opens as a -255 favorite, with Rosa the +200 underdog. This is a very short notice fight for Rosa, as the news broke of him replacing Gabriel Benitez on Wednesday. This is a tough fight to pick a winner in, Rosa has more high level experience and a more well rounded game, but is coming in without a full camp. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a finish in this fight, but it could come pretty late. Over 2.5 rounds is the safest pick, and I’ll be a little dangerous here and take Rosa moneyline. I think he’s more technical than Brown on the feet and more skilled on the ground, but it’s very tough to win on such short notice, so this is a very risky pick.
Picks: Over 2.5 Rounds, Rosa +200Main Card
Bill Algeo vs. Joanderson Brito
Featherweight Bout
Bill Algeo: 14-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Joanderson Brito: 12-2-1, 5 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
The first fight of the main card, this fight features two very fun prospects. This is Joanderson Brito’s UFC debut, and he hasn’t lost a fight in nearly 6 years, with nearly all of those wins coming via finish. Brito uses a brutal, highly aggressive Muay Thai style on the feet, constantly throwing long and devastating combos. He loves to throw power shots, often throwing multiple hooks in each combination, but is great at mixing in kicks and body shots. He is a good grappler as well, with an excellent choke game and quality wrestling. He showed his defensive grappling abilities in his fight on the Contender Series, where he defended multiple submissions and did a great job working out of bad situations. Training at Chute Boxe, Brito has a highly entertaining style, brawling and throwing bombs on the feet and shooting powerful slam takedowns, as well as landing big shots on the ground. He can and will take the fight anywhere, and doesn’t seem to be uncomfortable in any position whether it’s on the feet or the ground. Bill Algeo has won 2 of his last 5 fights, with his best win coming over Spike Carlyle (13-3-0). Although he only has 3 UFC fights, Algeo is experienced on the MMA scene, with fights in Cage Fury, World Series of Fighting (now PFL), and held and defended a title in Ring of Combat. Algeo uses a karate-like style on the feet, often keeping his hands down and throwing a variety of strikes including kicks and punches to both the head and body. Training at Algeo MMA & Kickboxing, he will engage on the feet, showcasing decent head movement and hand speed, with solid power in his kicks. Algeo is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but also has a good wrestling background. He’s good on his back and on top, willing to throw ground and pound as well as pursue submissions, having his most success with rear naked chokes. He’s also shown good takedown defense and clinchwork in his UFC tenure. Algeo also seems to gain confidence as the fight goes on, but also seems to fade a bit over the course of three rounds and doesn’t have quite the speed or technicality he shows early. Brito is a slight favorite in this fight at -140, putting Algeo at +120 as the underdog. I think Algeo’s tendency to fight with his hands down could prove to be a real problem, as Brito loves to storm forward and throw huge shots. I like Brito by knockout, Algeo’s confidence may be his downfall in this one. Although Algeo has seen plenty of decisions recently, this is not at all the case with Brito, so I’ll also take under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Brito by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 roundsDakota Bush vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Lightweight Bout
Dakota Bush: 8-3-0, 2 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Viacheslav Borshchev: 5-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
An exciting matchup of two prospects, I’d be shocked to see this fight go 3 rounds. Dakota Bush comes into his second UFC fight having won 3 of his last five, with none of those wins coming in the UFC. He has no big name victories, with all of his wins coming on the regional circuit. Training at Glory MMA, on the feet Bush tends to blitz forward and through a lot of big hooks, using a kickboxing style and mixing in a lot of lead leg attacks. He isn’t the most technical striker, throwing a lot of hooks and power shots mixed in with kicks to the body. Bush is a solid grappler, much better with his submission game than wrestling game. When on the ground, Bush will typically look for ground and pound or a choke, specifically the rear naked choke, which he has found all 4 of his submission wins with. He will throw spinning attacks on occasion, and can find himself in brawls on the feet due to his tendency to throw constant power shots. Viacheslav Borshchev has won 4 of his last 5 wins, with this being his UFC debut after a beautiful knockout of Chris Duncan (7-1-0) on the Contender Series. Borshchev uses technical, tight kickboxing on the feet, throwing beautiful combinations with power behind every shot he throws. Training at the excellent Team Alpha Male, he can also throw powerful kicks high and low, and is a great counter-puncher. He showed a great ability to overcome adversity in his Contender Series fight, working out of some really tough spots and engaging in some brutal exchanges on the feet. He’s not likely to take the fight to the mat, but definitely has wrestling ability from training at a camp with some really top level wrestlers. He also has one of my all time favorite nicknames, “Slava Claus,” gifting exciting fights to fans every time he gets in the cage. Borschchev is the favorite here at -190, with Bush the underdog at +160. Honestly, a Russian who trains at Team Alpha Male kind of speaks for itself. I think Borshchev will overwhelm Bush on the feet with his much more technical striking, and ultimately find the knockout. The safest bet on this fight is definitely under 2.5 rounds, but I’ll also take Borshchev by KO/TKO.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Borshchev by KO/TKO#2 Katlyn Chookagian vs. #4 Jennifer Maia
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Katlyn Chookagian: 16-4-0, 2 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Jennifer Maia: 19-7-1, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
A fantastic stylistic matchup, this fight is actually a rematch, with their first fight taking place in 2019. Chookagian took the first fight by unanimous decision, and has won 3 of her last five fights. Chookagian has really fought a who’s who of women’s flyweight, with wins over Lauren Murphy (15-5-0), Alexis Davis (20-11-0) and Viviane Araujo (10-3-0). Training at Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, Chookagian is known for her boxing style on the feet, using crisp combos and excellent counter-punching to do damage to her opponents. Chookagian also has good kicks, able to use a wide variety of attacks and mix kicks in with punch combinations. While definitely a striker, Chookagian has the ability to mix it up on the ground, often resorting to ground and pound instead of submissions. She’s one of the most experienced fighters in the entire division, being tied for the most fights in the women’s flyweight division and has the second most wins of all time in that division. Her last two losses came against the very best of the division, being #1 contender Jessica Andrade (22-9-0) and current women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0). Jennifer Maia has also won 3 of her last 5 fights, scoring solid victories over Jessica Eye (15-10-0), Joanne Wood (15-7-0) and Roxanne Modafferi (25-20-0). Maia, despite having a black belt in Muay Thai, largely uses her boxing on the feet, but is a bit less technical than her opponent and tends to throw more looping shots. She has some decent kicking ability, but won’t throw kicks too often, usually throwing a few leg kicks and a very occasional head kick. Training at the legendary Chute Boxe, Maia is an excellent grappler and has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Maia will go for both ground and pound and submissions, with a handful of armbars on her record. A former Invicta women’s flyweight champ, Maia does actually have some professional boxing experience as well, going 3-0 in her career. In their first bout, which was only 2 years ago, we saw Chookagian overwhelm Maia on the feet with more technical striking, both landing more strikes and being more accurate than her opponent. Unsurprisingly, Chookagian is the favorite at -190, with Maia the underdog at +160. There really hasn’t been all that much time since their last fight, and Chookagian has both fought better competition and been more active than Maia since their first bout. Over 2.5 rounds is very safe for this fight, with Chookagian going to decision in 11 of her 13 UFC fights, and Maia 6 of her 7. I will also take Chookagian moneyline, I don’t know if Maia has improved enough from their first fight and I expect a similar outcome.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Chookagian -190#5 Brandon Royval vs. #7 Rogerio Bontorin
Flyweight Bout
Brandon Royval: 12-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Rogerio Bontorin: 17-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
A significant bout in the flyweight division, this a great matchup of fighters with similar styles. Brandon Royval has won 3 of his last five fights, scoring impressive wins over Tim Elliot (18-12-1) and Kai Kara-France (23-9-0). Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, Royval is a well rounded fighter, but is at his best on the ground. Royval showed his ability on the feet in his fight with Kai Kara-France, with the first round being one of the craziest rounds I’ve ever watched. Royval has both speed and power in his hands, utilizing a loose, kickboxing style and a solid mix of kicks and punches. He has no problem engaging in big exchanges on the feet, and also has a solid chin. He is excellent on the ground, with a black belt in BJJ, and is able to seemingly find submissions from anywhere with an excellent defensive grappling game to complement his submission capabilities. He has a solid variety of submission victories on his record, being very sufficient in chokes and joint locks. Although he’s lost his last two fights, it was to the best of the division in the current UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno (19-5-2) and #3 flyweight Alexandre Pantoja (24-5-0). Rogerio Bontorin has also won 3 of his last 5 fights, with wins over Matt Schnell (15-6-0) and Raulian Paiva (21-4-0). On the feet, Bontorin uses a boxing style, often throwing big looping hooks and aggressively headhunting. He will mix in some leg kicks, but largely uses his hands when engaging in striking. Bontorin, training with the Gile Ribeiro/Noguchi Team, is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and is very capable on the ground, but is actually yet to pick up a submission win in the UFC. It seems if he does pursue a submission, it tends to be the rear naked choke, with 8 of his 11 submission victories being via rear naked. Bontorin has solid power for a flyweight, and a decent chin to complement it, but can be knocked out as shown in his first round KO loss to Kai Kara-France. Brandon Royval is the betting favorite in this fight at -170, with Bontorin the underdog at +145. I think although he has less UFC fights, Royval has faced much stiffer competition, and went toe-to-toe and won against Kara-France, who slept Bontorin. Bontorin also has a tendency to come out a bit flat-footed and slow in the first round, something Royval can certainly capitalize on. I’d be surprised if this fight saw the judges, so I’ll definitely take under 2.5 rounds, but I’m pretty confident Royval picks up the win in this fight by finish.
Picks: Royval by KO/TKO or Sub., Under 2.5 roundsJake Collier vs. Chase Sherman
Heavyweight Bout
Jake Collier: 12-6-0, 5 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Chase Sherman: 15-8-0, 14 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
A classic bout between two big heavyweights with heavy hands, this should be an entertaining co-main. Jake Collier has won 2 of his last 5 fights, with victories over Gian Villante (17-14-0) and Marcel Fortuna (9-4-0). Training at Pit MMA, Collier is a pretty typical heavyweight, utilizing a boxing style and heavy hands on the feet. He has a tendency to put his head down and throw big hooks, but can put together some nice combos and decent volume for a fighter of his size. He will also throw some kicks, largely consisting of leg kicks and a few head kicks. Although he has 3 submissions on his record, he really doesn’t initiate grappling situations too often, usually preferring to just slug it out on the feet. Collier can take a punch like most heavyweights, but has been knocked out twice in the UFC. He has traded wins his entire UFC career, and hasn’t fared well when given high level competition like Tom Aspinall (11-2-0) or Carlos Felipe (11-2-0). Collier does a good job of keeping his boxing technical over the course of the fight, and will really only throw wild when he has his opponent hurt. Chase Sherman has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and has victories over Ike Villanueva (18-13-0) and Damian Grabowski (21-5-0). Similar to Collier, Sherman is a boxer, throwing heavy hooks, straights, and solid combinations. He does have a decent kicking game, able to throw strong leg and body kicks alongside his punches. Like his opponent, he rarely takes the fight to the ground, and I think his record really speaks to that. This is actually his second run in the UFC, and has struggled against high level competition, with losses to Andrei Arlovski (32-20-0) and Walt Harris (13-10-0). Training at the excellent Jackson-Wink MMA, Sherman seems to be at his best early, as like many heayweights he doesn’t have the best cardio and has had a tendency to fade as the fight goes on. Collier is a slight favorite at -135, and Sherman the underdog at +110. The safest pick here would definitely be over 2.5 rounds, although this is a heavyweight bout both fighters have been going to decisions as of late and neither fighter has been finished very many times in their career. This is a brutal fight to pick a winner in: if Sherman could get it going early he could take a victory, but I think Collier is just a little more technical, as well as having slightly better cardio and better output. I’ll cautiously take Collier in this one.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Collier -135#5 Calvin Kattar vs. #8 Giga Chikadze
Featherweight Bout
Calvin Kattar: 22-5-0, 11 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Giga Chikadze: 14-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
An absolutely excellent matchup of top level strikers, this main event is guaranteed to be fireworks. Calvin Kattar comes into this bout having won 3 of his last 5, with wins over Dan Ige (15-5-0), Jeremy Stephens (28-19-0), and Hinsdale Central alumni Ricardo Lamas (20-8-0). Kattar is a highly technical and patient boxer, often biding his time and fighting behind his jab before landing devastating shots with his hands. Training with the New England Cartel, Kattar proved his toughness by surviving one of the worst one sided beatings I’ve ever witnessed against former UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway (23-6-0). Kattar isn’t one to initiate much grappling, but has shown decent wrestling ability with solid takedowns as well as good clinch work. Kattar tends to lull people in, not throwing a ton of punches and utilizing his footwork and head movement, until suddenly unleashing strong combos and then returning to range. Although he is patient, he will engage in big exchanges without getting sloppy. He also has great cardio and can easily go a full five rounds, and has proven to be very tough to put away, having never been knocked out in his career. Giga Chikadze comes into this fight having won all of his last five fights, with impressive victories over UFC mainstays in Cub Swanson (28-12-0) and Edson Barboza (22-10-0). Giga is known for his excellent kickboxing, with great power and speed in his hands and some of the most devastating body kicks in the entire UFC. Training at Kings MMA, Chikadze has a background in kickboxing, going 38-8-0 in his pro kickboxing career with 22 knockouts. Like his opponent, he’s pretty unlikely to take the fight to the ground but has shown good takedown defense and a good ability to work in the clinch. Chikadze has gained some fame for the “Giga Kick,” a moniker given to his brutal body kicks, exemplified by his knockout of Cub Swanson. Giga has proved to be one of the most high level kickboxers in the UFC, and has black belts in both Goju-ryu and Kyokushin Karate. Chikadze is the favorite here, coming in at -240 with Kattar the +200 underdog. I definitely think people are fading Kattar a bit too hard in this fight, as they’re probably a bit afraid to bet on him after his fight with Holloway. Still though, I see Giga taking the victory here. You can have the best chin in the world, but there’s only so much you can do when your liver is being blasted into oblivion. I'‘ll take Chikadze by KO/TKO, and a bit riskier pick in under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Chikadze by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus Preview
Coming off of one of the biggest cards of the year, in which we witnessed massive upsets and some incredible fights, we go into the final UFC fight card of the year. This card is headlined by a wild heavyweight matchup, Derrick Lewis vs Chris Daukaus. Both fighters being knockout artists in their own right, this is a great fight to cap off a great year in MMA. Throughout the card, there’s a scattering of prospects and veterans, all trying to pick up their final victories of 2021. There’s great fights from top to bottom on this Fight Night, and plenty to look forward to.
Prelims
Unlike a pay-per-view card, Fight Nights are not broken up into Prelims and Early Prelims, so instead of breaking down the entirety of the prelims, I’m simply picking my favorite fights from them and analyzing them.
Jordan Leavitt vs Matt Sayles
Lightweight Bout
Jordan Leavitt: 8-1-0, 1 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Matt Sayles: 8-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
The very first bout of this Fight Night, this is one of the biggest sleeper fights of the entire night. A classic striker vs. grappler matchup, I think this is a great way to kick off the card. Jordan Leavitt comes into this fight having won 4 of his last 5, as well as producing one of the best highlight finishes of 2020 with a slam KO of Matt Wiman (16-10-0). One of these victories came in the UFC, with another being a 1st round submission on the Contender Series over Jose Flores (9-2-0). Leavitt has shown striking ability, with decent hands and is able to mix in some kicks, but typically uses his striking to set up his takedowns. Training at Syndicate MMA, Leavitt largely resorts to hip throws and powerful double leg slams, quickly pursuing a variety of submissions when he does get the fight to the mat. With four 1st round submissions to his name, Leavitt is a very dangerous grappler, especially early on in a fight when he’s fresh. Matt Sayles comes into this bout with 3 wins in his last 5 fights, with notable wins over Kyle Nelson (13-4-0) and Christian Aguilera (14-8-0). Training at Alliance MMA, Sayles is a solid striker, mostly favoring power shots, throwing big bombs with his right hand and powerful kicks with his right leg. Sayles grappling isn’t excellent, but will usually resort to ground-and-pound if the fight goes to the floor. He’s only been finished once, coming in a submission loss to one of the hottest UFC prospects, Bryce Mitchell (14-1-0). This being his most recent loss, I think it may be a bit telling of the outcome of this upcoming bout with Leavitt. Seeing how easily Mitchell took down and dominated Sayles, I think Leavitt will experience similar success with his strong wrestling and excellent submission game. This fight surprisingly sits at even odds, with both fighters at -110. I really like Leavitt in this matchup, and I’d be shocked to see this one go to the judges. The safest pick would be under 2.5 rounds, and I expect to see Leavitt win by submission.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Leavitt by Sub.Charles Jourdain vs Andre Ewell
Featherweight Bout
Charles Jourdain: 11-4-1, 8 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Andre Ewell: 17-8-0, 7 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
The fourth fight of the night, this a bout I’m surprised isn’t receiving more eyes. A matchup between two strikers, I expect this to be a war on the feet. Charles Jourdain comes into this fight having won only 2 of his last 5, with one of those fights being a draw. He has notable victories over Marcelo Rojo (16-8-0) and Dooho Choi (14-4-0). Training out of Acadamie Pro Star MMA, Jourdain is known for his flashy kickboxing style and excellent hands. Jourdain has finished every one of his victories, using a variety of strikes to attain these finishes including punches, kicks, knees, as well as flying and spinning attacks. Despite recent losses, Jourdain is never in a boring fight, such as a hard-fought submission loss to rising star Julian Erosa (26-10-0) and a war in a draw with Josh Culibao (9-1-1). Jourdain has the ability to be technical and use clean combos, but will also throw caution to the wind with flying knees and spinning kicks, making him an unpredictable and dangerous striker. Andre Ewell comes into this fight having also won 2 of his last 5, with victories over Irwin Rivera (10-6-0) and Jonathan Martinez (14-4-0). He also scored a notable victory in his UFC debut, winning a split decision over former UFC Bantamweight Champion Renan Barao (34-9-0). Training at Apex MMA, Ewell utilizes a karate-like striking style, fighting in a split stance with his hands often down at his waist. Ewell carries solid power, and like many karate fighters fires off plenty of lead leg kicks, often setting up his punches with his kicks. I think this fight has a chance to be one of the better scraps on the entire card, especially considering both could be fighting to keep their job. Jourdain is a -200 favorite, with Ewell a +170 underdog. I like Jourdain in this fight: I expect him to take advantage of Ewell’s hands-down striking style and either outclass him or pull off a wild knockout. Jourdain moneyline is the safest pick here, but I also like under 2.5 rounds, as I anticipate both fighters leaving it all in the Octagon this Saturday.
Picks: Jourdain -200, Under 2.5 roundsRaoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry
Bantamweight Bout
Raoni Barcelos: 16-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Victor Henry: 21-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Another fight I’m surprised hasn’t garnered more attention, this is the 7th fight of the night, and a good one at that. Both fighters have a wealth of experience beyond the UFC, both having challenged for titles in other promotions. Raoni Barcelos comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, this year past June taking his first loss in 6 years to fellow prospect Timur Valiev (18-2-0). Barcelos, a former RFA Bantamweight Champion, has notable victories over Said Nurmagomedov (14-2-0) and Bobby Moffett (14-6-0). Training out of Rizzo RVT, Barcelos is dangerous wherever the fight goes. He has great striking, using a Muay Thai style and often throws devastating hooks, uppercuts, and leg kicks. He also is an excellent grappler, with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as some quality wrestling mixed in. Barcelos is a high energy, high pressure fighter that is constantly moving forward, looking to either land big strikes or a takedown whenever the opportunity presents itself. Victor Henry comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, with this being his UFC debut. His most notable victory being over top UFC prospect Kyler Phillips (9-2-0), this is by no way Henry’s introduction to the big leagues of MMA. Henry has fought in King of the Cage, BAMMA, Pancrase, Deep, and Rizin, even fighting for a title in a losing effort against Shintaro Ishiwatari (26-9-4) in Pancrase. Henry, training out of UWF-USA, seems to be a pretty pure MMA fighter, slightly favoring ground exchanges, but still very willing to go at it on the feet. Henry has good hands and likes to throw a lot of head and low kicks, as well as an excellent ability to throw strikes, particularly knees, in the clinch. He also seems more likely to get a takedown from the clinch than out in the open, utilizing a lot of bodylocks and trips. Like Barcelos, he’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes. Barcelos is the favorite at -310, with Henry the underdog at +250. While Henry has plenty of experience, I think Barcelos is just a bit better in every aspect of the fight, with more technical striking and seemingly higher level grappling, especially in the BJJ department. Despite Barcelos seeing decisions in his last three fights, I like the under 2.5, as well As Barcelos by KO/TKO. I see him really putting on a show in this fight, whether its on the ground or the feet, and picking up the victory by finish.
Picks: Barcelos by KO/TKO, Under 2.5Main Card
Cub Swanson vs. Darren Elkins
Featherweight Bout
Cub Swanson: 27-12-0, 12 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Darren Elkins: 27-9-0, 10 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
A fight between two great UFC veterans, we have another classic matchup of striker vs. grappler. Cub Swanson comes into this fight with 2 wins in his last five fights, scoring victories over Kron Gracie (5-1-0) and Daniel Pineda (27-14-0). He also has notable victories over current UFC Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira (32-8-0) and former UFC Interim Lightweight Champion Dustin Poirier (28-7-0). Training at the excellent Jackson-Wink MMA, Cub Swanson is a UFC mainstay that has been supplying fans with exciting fights for nearly two decades. Swanson is an excellent striker, known for throwing thunderous, looping hooks, devastating leg kicks, and constant forward motion. Swanson will often charge forward to throw big combos, mostly consisting of hooks and straights, but also has a great kicking game and will throw a variety of attacks with his legs. “Killer” Cub also has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and will mix in wrestling on occasion, but has been submitted 7 times in his career and will mostly keep the fight standing. Darren Elkins has similarly won 2 of his last five, but those two wins were in his last two bouts, those being over Darrick Minner (26-13-0) and Eduardo Garagorri (13-2). He also has notable victories over Duane Ludwig (22-14-0) and Michael Johnson (20-17-0). Elkins has made a name for himself through both his excellent wrestling and legendary toughness, earning the name tattooed on his chest, “The Damage.” Training out of a great camp in Team Alpha Male, Elkins uses boxing style striking, fighting behind his jab and mainly using his striking to set up his takedowns. When the fight does go to the ground, Elkins will mostly go for ground and pound, but will occasionally pursue a choke. Swanson is a -200 favorite, putting Elkins at a +170 underdog. This is a super tough fight to pick a winner in: both are 20+ fight veterans of the UFC, so there’s very few situations either of these men haven’t been in. I think the safest bet would be over 2.5 rounds, as Elkins rarely gets finished, and I think Swanson has intelligent enough ground game to not get finished on the bottom. I’m going to go with Swanson on this one, I think he has vastly superior striking and his wrestling and jiu-jitsu should be good enough to fend off Elkins.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Swanson -200Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Lightweight Bout
Diego Ferreira: 17-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Mateusz Gamrot: 19-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
A fight I think easily could’ve been the co-main, this is a fascinating matchup. Diego Ferreira has won 3 of his last 5, with noteworthy victories over former UFC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis (24-12-0) and Rustam Khabilov (24-4-0). Training at the great Fortis MMA, Ferreira utilizes a brawling style in the stand up, throwing a lot of heavy straight punches and looping hooks, as well as applying forward pressure. Ferreira has excellent BJJ, and prefers to take the fight to the ground, but is more than willing to stand and exchange. Despite his grappling pedigree as a medalist in both the Pan-American and Nogi World Jiu-Jitsu Championships, he actually has more knockouts in his UFC career than submissions. Ferreira isn’t the most polished striker, often blitzing forward to throw wild combos, but does carry good power in his hands. His grappling ability keeps his opponents concerned enough about takedowns, improving the effectiveness of his striking much of the time. Mateusz Gamrot has found victories in 4 of his last 5 fights, with significant wins coming over Jeremy Stephens (28-19-0) and Scott Holtzman (14-5-0). Gamrot, a former KSW Lightweight Champion, is extremely well rounded and able to pull of wild knockouts as well as brutal submissions. Training at the excellent American Top Team, “Gamer” is a great technical striker with beautiful boxing combos and a solid kicking game to complement his hands. Gamrot also possesses great footwork and head movement, which aids him in his wrestling as it can often disguise his takedowns. Mateusz Gamrot is the favorite at -195, with Ferreira the underdog at +165. I think Gamrot’s high level striking will prove too much for Ferreira, as well as his defensive wrestling being too good for Ferreira to get the fight where he’s more comfortable. I’m taking Gamrot by KO/TKO, as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Gamrot by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 Rounds#12 Raphael Assuncao vs. Ricky Simon
Bantamweight Bout
Raphael Assuncao: 27-8-0, 4 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Ricky Simon: 18-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Another fight featuring a long time veteran of the UFC, this is a very interesting fight. Raphael Assuncao has been in the UFC for a decade now, and comes into this fight having won 2 of his last five fights. This is Assuncao’s first fight since being on the receiving end of a brutal knockout by former UFC Bantamweight Champion Cody Garbrandt (12-5-0). Assuncao has notable victories over former UFC Bantamweight Champion TJ Dillashaw (18-4-0) and current UFC Bantamweight “Champion” Aljamain Sterling (20-3-0). Training at Ascension MMA, he utilizes a patient boxing style when on the feet, often waiting for openings and counter-striking opportunities. Assuncao has a black belt in BJJ, and thus has an excellent submission game and solid wrestling, but also is a good defensive grappler, able to defend takedowns well. While not quite the veteran his opponent is, Ricky Simon has still managed to rack up 8 UFC fights in just 3 years. Simon, a former LFA Bantamweight Champion, comes into this fight with 3 victories in his last 5 bouts. He has significant wins over Merab Dvalishvili (14-4-0) and Ray Borg (14-5-0). Simon is best known for his wrestling, using powerful double legs and slams to drag his opponent to the mat, where he’ll typically look to use his ground-and-pound and top control to find victories. Simon does also have solid striking, possessing good speed and power in his hands. He tends to use big, looping combinations to set up his takedowns, and is very proficient in the clinch. Simon is a decent favorite at -280, with Assuncao being a +230 underdog. I’m surprised Simon is getting that big of an edge in this fight, but I think people are weary when it comes on betting on Assuncao after the Garbrandt KO. The safest pick here is definitely over 2.5 rounds, as Simon has seen the judges 5 times in his 8 UFC fights, and Assuncao 10 times in his 16 UFC fights. I could very easily see this fight going either way, but I’m going to take Simon. I hate picking up a moneyline favorite that big, but I really don’t see Simon finishing him, I see him taking a Unanimous Decision via dominant wrestling.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Simon -280#11 Amanda Lemos vs. #12 Angela Hill
Strawweight Bout
Amanda Lemos: 10-1-1, 7 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Angela Hill: 13-10-0, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
One of three female fights on the card, this is definitely the best of the three. Amanda Lemos has been an absolute wrecking ball in her short career, finishing all but one of her wins, coming into this fight having won 4 of her last 5. She really doesn’t have any big names she’s taken out though, with her most notable wins over Livinha Souza (14-4-0) and Montserrat Conejo (10-2-0). Training with the Marajo Brothers Team, Lemos is known for her explosive hands, constantly moving forward and throwing big, vicious combos. She also has solid grappling ability, mostly securing takedowns in the clinch where she’s especially dangerous, often landing big shots from close when she isn’t pursuing a takedown. “Amandinha” won her last two fights by first round knockout, getting both with her devastating hands. 8 of her twelve professional fights didn’t make it out the first round, proving she’s at her most dangerous early on in the fight. Angela Hill has won 2 of her last five fights, all of which went to decision. Living up to her nickname, “Overkill” has incredibly managed to have 15 fights in the UFC since 2017, with noteworthy victories over Hannah Cifers (10-7-0) and Ashley Yoder twice (8-8-0). Hill, who went 16-0 in kickboxing prior to her MMA career, is unsurprisingly known for her technical muay thai striking and forward pressure. Training at Alliance MMA, She is also a capable wrestler, able to mix in the occasional takedown, but largely favors stand up. Amanda Lemos is a massive favorite at -360, the biggest favorite on the card, with Angela Hill the underdog at +280. While Lemos has garnered quite a bit of hype, she really hasn’t faced serious competition, with 3 of her five UFC victories coming over opponents with less than 4 UFC bouts. The safest bet here would be over 2.5 rounds, Hill has never been knocked out and has seen the judges in all of her last 5 fights. Hill is one of my favorite female fighters in MMA, and I’m going to go with my bias here and take Angela Hill. This is a huge step up in competition for Lemos, and I think she may struggle with the pace that Hill keeps, especially considering how short many of Lemos’ fights have been.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Hill +280#5 Stephen Thompson vs. #10 Belal Muhammad
Welterweight Bout
Stephen Thompson: 16-5-1, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Belal Muhammad: 19-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
A fight that easily could’ve been the main event of its own Fight Night, this is a very interesting matchup that I don’t imagine many predicted prior to its booking. Stephen Thompson is one of the absolute best strikers in MMA, coming into this bout having won 2 of his last 5. With noteworthy victories over former UFC Welterweight Champion Johny Hendricks (18-8-0) and Jorge Masvidal (35-15-0), Thompson always puts on a show, whether it’s a loss or a victory. One of the last true specialists in MMA, Thompson has become famous for his karate-based striking, utilizing a split leg stance, constant attacks with his front leg, and long straight punches. Training with Team Upstate Karate, “Wonderboy” went 58-0 in kickboxing prior to his MMA career. You’ll practically never see Thompson initiate grappling exchanges, but has shown improvement on the ground, especially in his defensive wrestling. Belal Muhammad has found victory in 4 of his last 5 fights, and has impressive wins over Demian Maia (28-11-0) and Tim Means (32-12-1). Primarily a wrestler, Muhammad prefers to take the fight to the mat, using his strong double leg takedowns to drag his opponents to the floor and land ground and pound. When the fight is on the feet, Muhammad uses a heavy handed boxing style, throwing lots of technical combinations, often using his punching ability to get in close for a takedown. Thompson is the favorite, coming in at -230, putting Muhammad as the underdog at +190. I can’t imagine Muhammad is going to want to exchange much on the feet, but I think Thompson should have solid enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing. Due to this, I’m going with Thompson moneyline, with my safest pick being over 2.5 rounds. I see Thompson outclassing Muhammad and gassing him out by defending takedowns, but I don’t anticipate a finish, as both men have gone to decisions in the majority of their fights.
Picks: Over 2.5 Rounds, Thompson -230#3 Derrick Lewis vs. #7 Chris Daukaus
Heavyweight Bout
Derrick Lewis: 25-8-0, 20 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Chris Daukaus: 12-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
The main event of the night, this is bound to be a wild, heavy handed brawl. Derrick Lewis, the record holder for most UFC heavyweight knockouts with 12, comes into this fight having won 4 of his last 5. Training out of Grind House Fitness, Lewis has significant victories over current UFC Heavyweight Champion Francis Ngannou (16-3-0) and Curtis Blaydes (15-3-0). Famous for his kill-or-be-killed style, Lewis has some of the most powerful punches in all of the UFC, arguably only matched by Francis Ngannou. When striking, Lewis has a very unique, patient style which he uses to catch his opponents off guard with his massive power. Surprisingly for someone of his stature, he has shown the ability to throw powerful kicks, and even the occasional jumping kick, but will mostly use his hands to do damage. He doesn’t often initiate grappling exchanges, and is well known for his rather non-technical wrestling style of “just getting up,” but can do serious damage if he gets on top of someone. Chris Daukaus has been red hot, winning 5 of his last 5 fights, all by knockout, with 4 of them coming in the first round. Daukaus scored notable wins over Aleksei Oleinik (59-16-1) and Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0), and is by far one of the biggest heavyweight prospects in the division right now. Training out of Martinez BJJ, Daukaus possesses shocking speed for a heavyweight, using his excellent boxing to overwhelm his opponents with sheer volume and power. Similar to Lewis, he rarely takes the fight to the mat, but possesses solid clinchwork, a black belt in BJJ, as well as good defensive wrestling. Daukaus is very unique to the heavyweight division, using volume to put people asleep opposed to the one-punch power we see many heavyweights use to get finishes. Chris Daukaus is a small favorite at -135, with Lewis the underdog at +115. I’d be absolutely shocked to see this fight go 5 rounds, but at the same time I think both fighters are too tough to go out in the first. I’ll take over 1.5 rounds on this fight, but I think Daukaus moneyline is the safer bet. I think Daukaus is too smart to fall for Lewis’ tricks, and his speed will ultimately be the difference maker, landing at volume and simply overwhelming Lewis. This pains me to say, as I like most others love Derrick Lewis, but I don’t see him taking this one.
Picks: Daukaus -135, Over 1.5 Rounds
UFC 269 Preview
In a year with 20 title fights, the title in 5 different weight classes changed hands 5 times, yet it is the 21st of these title fights that may have garnered the most hype. Coming off of two consecutive victories over Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier has quickly become one of the biggest fan favorites of the year. He’s received great praise from the pundits of the sport as well, often being placed higher on Pound for Pound lists than his champion counterpart and opponent this Saturday, Charles Oliveira. Oliveira, on the other hand, is coming into his first title defense after an incredible championship victory against perennial Bellator title contender Michael Chandler. While this main event may be what attracts many viewers to this pay-per-view, there’s plenty of excellent fights beyond this, whether it’s the main card or the prelims.
Prelims
Jordan Wright vs. Bruno Silva
Jordan Wright: 12-1-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Bruno Silva: 21-6-0, 18 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
A contest we can expect to mostly remain on the feet, this fight is a great way to kick off the prelims. Jordan Wright is coming off a string of 4 fights that all didn’t see a 3rd round, winning three of those 4 by KO/TKO, and losing 1 by KO/TKO. He trains at the legendary Jackson-Wink MMA Academy, he’s known for his Karate-style standup, along with a decent ability to wrestle, although I don’t anticipate him using it much in this fight. His UFC opponents so far has largely consisted of up-and-comers (Jamie Pickett, 12-6-0, Joaquin Buckley 13-4-0) outside of veteran Ike Villanueva (18-13). Bruno Silva’s last five bouts have all ended via KO/TKO, all of which being victories and two being within the UFC. Despite having less UFC fights, Silva has more overall experience in his career, largely taking place on the Brazilian regional scene, as well as managing to become the M-1 Global Middleweight Champion. Training out of Evolucao Thai, he largely utilizes his boxing ability, but also has some beautiful clinch knees and an ability to mix in kicks. Bruno Silva opens as a solid favorite at-360, with Wright at +280. Wright’s flashy striking does make him an appealing underdog, I believe the best pick on this fight would be Under 1.5 rounds. If you really want a moneyline bet, I’d take Silva, but the line is a bit inflated, so Silva by KO would be a better bet.
Picks: Under 1.5 rounds, Silva by KO/TKOAugusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa
Augusto Sakai: 15-3-1, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Tai Tuivasa: 13-3-0, 12 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Yet another fight virtually guaranteed to be settled standing up, we’ve got two big boys ready to go to war. Augusto Sakai has taken two consecutive KO/TKO losses, both against two high level opponents in Alistair Overeem (47-19-1) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-3-0). Despite this, he remains ranked #11 at heavyweight. He has fought in both the UFC and Bellator, giving him a bit of an edge when it comes to experience at the top of the sport. Prior to his recent losses he was on a 4-fight win streak in the UFC, with a notable win over former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski (32-20). Training out of the Gile Ribeiro/Noguchi Team, he is almost exclusively known for his striking, mostly utilizing his hands, but can get some power behind his kicks. When it does go to the mat, he’s far more likely to go for ground-and-pound than a submission. Tai Tuivasa has been hot in his last three fights, winning all of them by first round knockout, giving way to his famous “shooey” celebration. Training out of Lions High Performance Centre, he also has a victory over Arlovski, and notably finished Stefan Struve (33-13) and Greg Hardy (7-4). Like Sakai, he rarely initiates grappling exchanges, preferring to use his hands to get the job done, something he has excelled in doing as of late. This fight has even odds, with both fighters sitting at -110. Despite Sakai having the better experience, I like Tuivasa in this fight. Their careers are trending in opposite directions, and I anticipate that to continue. The best bets on this fight would be either Tuivasa moneyline, or under 1.5 rounds.
Picks: Tuivasa -110, Under 1.5Pedro Munhoz vs. Dominick Cruz
Pedro Munhoz: 19-6-0, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Dominick Cruz: 23-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
This matchup was one of the fights that had me excited for these prelims. Two excellent fighters, one of which is regularly thrown in the GOAT conversation at bantamweight, that man being Dominick Cruz. Cruz is not far removed from the title, as 4 of his last five fights have been for the belt. He most recently defeated Casey Kenney (16-4-1) following two title fight losses against Henry Cejudo (16-2-0) and Cody Garbrandt (12-4-0) respectively. A legend of the sport, training out of Alliance MMA, Cruz has the ability to strike as well as grapple, utilizing his unique footwork and excellent wrestling. Cruz is slightly more likely to keep it on the feet, but will largely resort to ground-and-pound if he does choose to grapple. Despite a career marred by injuries, Cruz has made the best of it, and still remains in the top ten of the 135 pound division, sitting at number 9. Pedro Munhoz comes in having lost 3 of his last five, but against highly credentialed opponents in current bantamweight “champion” Aljamain Sterling (20-3-0), former UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo (31-7-0), and former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (23-10-1). Despite these losses, Munhoz remains in the top ten at 135, at #8. Training at the excellent American Top Team, Munhoz, like Cruz, has the ability to strike as well as grapple, but uses more of a brawling style in the standup and a BJJ focused ground attack. It seems he has a tendency lately to mostly engage in striking battles, but definitely has the ability to submit opponents. Munhoz opens as a slight favorite at -115, with Cruz landing at -105. This is a very tough fight to pick a winner in, so the best bet on this would be over 2.5 rounds, as in 4 of both fighters last 5 fights, they’ve gone to the judges. If I absolutely had to pick a victor, I’d give a slight edge to Cruz, but I will admit my bias as a huge Cruz fan, so take that with a grain of salt.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Cruz -105
Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige
Josh Emmett: 16-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Dan Ige: 15-4-0, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
The final fight of the prelims, this is an excellent way to tee up the pay-per-view. Both men are in the top ten of the featherweight division, with Emmett ranked at #8 and Ige at #9. Josh Emmett comes in after winning 4 of his last 5, 4 of those fights ending via KO/TKO. His last two fights are solid victories over Shane Burgos (14-3-0) and Mirsad Bektic (13-4-0), with the latter being a first round knockout. Training at the acclaimed Team Alpha Male, Emmett is well known for his thunderous striking power and excellent wrestling. While he has largely stuck to the standup in his recent fights, he is fully capable of using his wrestling to control a fight. Emmett isn’t exactly what you’d describe as a “wild” striker, but does have a tendency to throw a lot of power shots, which has presented a problem for his recent opponents. Dan Ige comes into this fight following a tough decision loss to a hallmark of the featherweight division, the “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung (17-6-0). Prior to this loss, he earned a beautiful round one KO of Gavin Tucker (13-2-0), as well as a significant victory over Edson Barboza (22-10-0). Ige typically utilizes his pristine boxing to get the job done, and has ability to grapple, but showed plenty of holes in his ground game in his loss to TKZ. Training at a great camp, Xtreme Couture, Ige has sneaky power for his size, as well as great hand speed. Despite focusing on striking in his recent bouts, I think Emmett’s wrestling can present a real problem for Ige in this fight, and the odds seem to agree with me, with Emmett being a -170 favorite, and Ige being a +145 underdog. Ige has never been finished, and Emmett has only been finished once, so I anticipate seeing the judges in this fight. The best bets on this would be over 2.5 rounds, but I like Emmett moneyline more. Both fighters have big power, so a crazy finish is entirely on the table.
Picks: Over 2.5 Rounds, Emmet -170Main Card
Raulian Paiva vs. Sean O’Malley
Raulian Paiva: 21-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Sean O’Malley: 14-1-0, 10 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
The first fight of the main card, there is unsurprisingly a lot of hype built around this scrap. O’Malley, despite not being ranked, is one of the most popular fighters in the UFC, while Paiva is a relative unknown (like most of O’Malley’s opponents). Raulian Paiva is coming in on a 3 fight win streak, with victories over other prospects such as Kyler Phillips (9-2-0) and Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-6-0). Despite 3 solid victories lately, he has lost when facing higher level competition, such as Kai Kara-France (22-9-0) and Rogerio Bontorin (17-3-0). Training out of Ronildo Nobre Judo Club, Paiva is willing to engage wherever the fight goes, with both solid grappling and striking, with a slight preference towards the standup, particularly his boxing. Although he has some submissions on his record, I’d be surprised if that’s his main pursuit in this fight. Sean O’Malley is coming in on a two fight win streak, with victories over two not particularly notable opponents in Kris Moutinho (9-5-0) and Thomas Almeida (22-5-0). I’d say the best name on his win record is that of Eddie Wineland (24-15-1). O’Malley has become famous for his wild, kick-focused offense, rarely engaging in grappling exchanges. Training out of the MMA Lab, he has solid hands and excellent kicks, often throwing out crazy spinning attacks and devastating straight punches. Despite his fame, other than Chito Vera, I don’t think O’Malley has truly been tested in the octagon. Unsurprisingly, O’Malley is a decent favorite at -310 with Paiva a +250 underdog. I anticipate this going like other Suga Sean fights, with him controlling the standup and attaining either a Unanimous Decision or knockout. I’d take under 2.5 rounds, as O’Malley is such a big favorite, but I expect the Suga Show to walk away with a victory, so the moneyline isn’t a horrible pick up.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, O’Malley -310Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt
Kai Kara-France: 22-9-0, 10 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Cody Garbrandt: 12-4-0, 10 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
One of the most slept on fights of this main card, this is an absolute banger between two high-level strikers. This is Garbrandt’s first flyweight bout, and he is ranked #7 in the bantamweight division, with Kara-France ranked 6 at flyweight. Kai-Kara France is coming into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 fights, most notably a 1st round KO of Rogerio Bontorin (17-3-0). Training out of the excellent City Kickboxing, he is a fantastic striker, able to use all of the 8 limbs (hands, feet, knees, elbows) to get a finish. With three submissions to his name, he does have some decent grappling chops, but I’d be shocked to see this fight go to the ground. Like many flyweight strikers, Kara-France is better known for hand speed as opposed to power. Although this is the biggest name he’s ever faced in the former bantamweight champion, he trains with two current UFC champions in Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski, so he’s no stranger to challenging famous fighters. Cody Garbrandt has lost 4 of his last 5, 2 of which being title fights, but had one of the best knockouts of 2020 against Raphael Assuncao (27-8-0). Training at Team Alpha Male, Garbrandt is known for his explosive power, and aggressive brawling style. He does have solid wrestling, but I don’t anticipate seeing much of it this Saturday. One of his biggest weaknesses is a tendency to fight emotionally, often getting angry and engaging in huge exchanges, many of which haven’t gone his way. Despite this, he’s still an extremely dangerous striker, and I expect him to carry even more power at flyweight. Garbrandt is the favorite at -140, with Kara-France the underdog at +120. I think under 2.5 rounds is practically a given in this bout, but picking a winner is a bit more challenging. With this being Garbrandt’s first fight at 125, I think Kara-France has a chance to catch him off guard with his speed and pick up a victory. I’ll take Kai Kara-France to win, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Cody to walk away with a victory.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Kara-France +120Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Geoff Neal: 13-4-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Santiago Ponzinibbio: 29-4-0, 15-3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
The last non-title fight of the main card, this welterweight matchup is an explosive one. Both men are within the top 15 in the 170 pound division, with Ponzinibbio ranked #14 and Neal at #12. Ponzinibbio made his return to fighting in 2021 after 3 years gone due to health complications. He’s won 1 of his two fights this year, being an impressive return to form in a Unanimous Decision victory over prospect Miguel Baeza (10-2-0). His most impressive victory is a KO of welterweight hallmark Neil Magny (25-9-0). Training at American Top Team, Ponzinibbio is best known for his impressive striking and power, using a solid mix of punches and kicks to get the job done. He does has 6 submissions to his name, but none of them came in UFC fights, so while I wouldn’t consider him incapable of grappling, but it’s not his biggest strength. He has a great ability to throw combinations without getting sloppy, and is able to fight at distance as well as in the pocket. Geoff Neal is coming into this bout off of two consecutive losses, those being to Stephen Thompson (16-5-1) and the aforementioned Neil Magny (25-9-0). Neal, training at Fortis MMA, has solid kickboxing and serious power. While he isn’t the most technical striker, he throws a variety of kicks and punches, largely finding finishes using his hands. Despite being slightly undersized for the division, he makes up for that with power. This is another tough one to pick a winner in, with Ponzinibbio being the favorite at -130 and Neal the underdog at +110. I think Ponzinibbio will take it, using more technical striking and outclassing Neal, but Neal is the human definition of “puncher’s chance,” so he’s never really out of a fight. Both men have had 3 of their last five end via finish, but typically make it out of the first round. The safest bet would be over 1.5 rounds, but this fight really is a toss up.
Picks: Ponzinibbio -130, Over 1.5 RoundsAmanda Nunes vs. Julianna Peña
Amanda Nunes: 21-4-0, 13 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Julianna Peña: 11-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
The first of two title fights, this one being for the women’s bantamweight strap. Amanda Nunes is the long-reigning champion, and Peña is ranked at #3 in the women’s bantamweight division. If you don’t know who Amanda Nunes is by now, you’ve been living under a rock. Largely considered the greatest female fighter of all time, Nunes has held the bantamweight title since 2016 and the featherweight title since 2018. Training at American Top Team, Nunes is excellent in practically every facet of the sport. Not only does she have enormous power and vicious boxing, she also has excellent Jiu-Jitsu and wrestling. She can put you out on the feet, or tap you on the ground, and usually, one of the two will happen. Nunes hasn’t lost in 5 years, most notably beating former UFC women’s featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie twice (10-4-0), former UFC and current Bellator women’s featherweight champion Cris Cyborg (25-2-0), and current UFC women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0) twice. Since winning the title, Nunes has been an unstoppable force, defending both of her belts and leaving a trail of destruction in her path. Julianna Peña has won 3 of her last 5 fights, with her most notable wins coming over former UFC women’s flyweight champion Nicco Montano (5-3-0) as well as Sara McMann (12-6-0). Training at Sikjitsu, Peña is best known for her wrestling prowess and submission abilities. She has solid enough striking to set up her grappling, but very much prefers to keep the fight on the mat. This is by far the biggest challenge of her career, as Nunes tends to be for any opponent. Peña has talked a lot of trash coming into this fight, repeatedly claiming that Nunes has been ducking her, and that she will be the best opponent the Lioness has ever faced. This has added a bit of heat to this fight, not that it really matters, as Nunes is the biggest favorite on the card at -800, with Peña being the +550 underdog. Quite frankly, I see no situation where Nunes loses this fight, but she’s such a massive favorite it makes taking her moneyline pointless. I’d take Nunes by KO, and I’m willing to throw a risky pick out there and take under 1.5 rounds. After Nunes dismantled Megan Anderson in about 2 minutes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar outcome.
Picks: Nunes by KO, Under 1.5 RoundsCharles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier
Charles Oliveira: 31-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 19 Sub.
Dustin Poirier: 28-6-0, 15 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
The second title fight of the night and the main event, this is a fight with plenty of hype built around it. Two established UFC veterans, both of these fighters are extremely well-versed and skilled. Charles Oliveira is the current UFC lightweight champion, with Dustin Poirier being ranked #1 in the division. Charles Oliveira is one of the most accomplished UFC fighters of all time, holding the all time record for UFC finishes (17), the record for the most submissions (14), and has the second most performance bonuses of all time (17). He’s coming into this fight on a 9 fight win streak, notably defeating Michael Chandler (22-7-0), Tony Ferguson (26-6-0), and Jim Miller (33-16-0). Oliveira trains at the legendary Chute Boxe, and utilizes some of the most advanced grappling in the UFC, proven by his submission record. He also has very underrated striking, which may be less underrated now following his stunning KO of Michael Chandler. Oliveira can really do it all, but he’s at his best when the fight is on the ground. Dustin Poirier comes into this fight after winning 4 of his last 5 fights, beating Conor Mcgregor twice (22-6-0), Max Holloway (23-6-0), and Dan Hooker (21-11-0). Training at American Top Team, Poirier is best known for his excellent boxing, but also is a very solid grappler, particularly in the wrestling department. Opposite to Oliveira, while Poirier can also do it all, he’s at his best when the fight is on the feet. He has the ability to produce a quick knockout, but also can easily go a full 5 rounds. His wrestling should be put on display, as he’ll probably have to defend plenty of takedowns from the grappling ace Oliveira. Surprisingly, Poirier is the favorite at -160, with Oliveira the underdog at +135. I think people are far too quick to count Charles Oliveira out of this fight, just as they did when he fought Chandler. I’m going to make my boldest pick of the card and take Oliveira moneyline, but also there’s a very safe option in over 1.5 rounds. While both have created fast finishes recently, I think this fight sees at least the second round.
Picks: Over 1.5 Rounds, Oliveira +135