UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen
Prelims
Chase Hooper vs. Steve Garcia
Featherweight Bout
Chase Hooper: 11-2-1, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Steve Garcia: 12-5-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
A classic matchup of a veteran and an up-and-comer, this is an interesting fight. Hooper has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his UFC victories coming over Felipe Colares (10-4-0), Peter Barrett (11-6-0), and Daniel Teymur (7-4-0). Hooper is best known for his grappling skills, possessing a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and some excellent submission abilities. He tends to go for the takedown early, landing on average over 1 takedown per fight, usually being most effective when using trips in the clinch as opposed to shooting out in the open. He also averages over 2 submission attempts per fight and does prefer to find a finish via tap out as opposed to ground and pound. Training at Combat Sport and Fitness, Hooper is one of the tallest fighters in the division at 6’1 and has been showing improved striking in his recent fights. He will use his length to throw kicks at range, then will blitz forward throwing big combinations, typically to set up a takedown. Garcia has similarly won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his lone UFC win coming over Charlie Ontiveros (11-9-0). Although he only has three UFC fights, Garcia fought 7 times in Bellator, so he’s been fighting at the top level for a while. Training at Jackson-Wink MMA, Garcia is a well-rounded fighter with a kickboxing background, with a tendency to get wild on the feet. He’s always coming forward, more than willing to bang in the pocket and make fights dirty. He’s shown an ability to pull off slam takedowns, as well as having solid top control and damaging ground and pound. It seems he resorts to his wrestling when things aren’t going his way on the feet, but will throw some damaging elbows if he does get on top. His wild nature on the feet hasn’t always worked in his favor, getting put out cold in his last fight against Maheshate (9-1-0), and getting dropped multiple times in his fight with Ontiveros before pulling off a comeback win. Hooper is the favorite in this fight at -260, with Garcia a +210 underdog. This feels like a bit of an easy one, Garcia has been dominated by grapplers before, being controlled for 13 minutes in a loss to Luis Pena (11-4-0). When you add that with how devastatingly he was put away in his last fight, it’s hard not to pick Hooper here. I’ll take Hooper by finish, but I’m going to take a risk and go over 2.5 rounds. Hooper seems to have a tendency to win fights super late, so I don’t love the under.
Picks: Hooper by Finish, Over 2.5 roundsAndrei Arlovski vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima
Heavyweight Bout
Andrei Arlovski: 34-20-0, 17 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Marcos Rogerio De Lima: 19-9-0, 13 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Two respected heavyweights face off for the first time in an excellent matchup. Arlovski has won 4 of his last 5 fights and is a former UFC Heavyweight Champion, holding victories over former UFC heavyweight champions Frank Mir (19-13-0), Fabricio Werdum (24-9-1), and Tim Sylvia (31-10-0). One of the most accomplished fighters in UFC history, Arlovski is the all-time heavyweight record holder for wins, total fights, total strikes, and significant strikes landed, and total fight time. With his first UFC bout coming in 2000, Arlovski is extremely experienced and comfortable everywhere. In his late career, he uses his speed and footwork to hurt his opponents more than his power, averaging about 75 significant strikes landed per fight in his last 5 victories. Training at American Top Team, Arlovski rarely throws single shots, often dipping his head and throwing combinations. “The Pitbull” doesn’t tend to initiate grappling exchanges but has great takedown defense, defending 76% of takedowns attempted on him in his 38-fight tenure. De Lima comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 outings, those coming over Ben Rothwell (39-14-0), Maurice Greene (10-7-0), and Ben Sosoli (7-3-0). With his first 6 UFC fights all ending in the first round and only 3 decisions in 13 UFC fights, De Lima is obviously at his most dangerous early on. De Lima throws every shot with fight-ending intentions, usually throwing a half dozen hooks in combination. He will mix in kicks when he’s at range, but he’s typically found banging it out in the pocket. Somehow also training at American Top Team, De Lima averages over 1 takedown landed per fight and has smothering top control if he can get his opponent down. He’s far more likely to go for the ground and pound finish than a submission, landing with just as much power as he does on the feet. It seems his wins go one of two ways; devastating first-round KO, or 3 rounds of top control. De Lima is the favorite at -240 with Arlovski the +200 underdog. I’m honestly a little surprised with the odds here, Arlovski has been rolling lately whereas De Lima has pretty much always traded wins and losses. I’m sure the reality here is people think Arlovski’s chin is gone and De Lima will have no trouble, but this is pretty far from the truth. Arlovski is much faster than De Lima and has much better cardio, so if he can stay on his feet and keep moving he should be able to piece De Lima up. I’m taking Arlovski moneyline and under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Arlovski +200, Under 2.5 roundsPhil Hawes vs. Roman Dolidze
Middleweight Bout
Phil Hawes: 12-3-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Roman Dolidze: 10-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Two powerful, well-rounded fighters are set to face off in this one. Hawes has won 4 of his last 5 fights and holds wins over Kyle Daukaus (11-3-0), Nassourdine Imavov (12-3-0), and Jacob Malkoun (7-2-0). With a background in collegiate wrestling, Hawes’ easiest path to victory is grappling, averaging over 2 takedowns landed per fight. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Hawes is very powerful, often landing slam takedowns, and is very hard to shake off when he’s in top position. When he does get the fight to the mat, Hawes seemingly never stops punching, definitely preferring a ground and pound finish to a submission. On the feet, Hawes stays patient and fights behind his jab, and what he lacks in volume he makes up for in accuracy and power. Hawes has shown marked improvement in his striking, now throwing head kicks and beautiful short elbows on the inside. He has shown an increased willingness to strike lately but has shown a tendency to panic wrestle if he gets caught with a big shot. Dolidze similarly has won 4 of his last 5 outings and has wins over Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0), Khadis Ibragimov (8-4-0), and John Allan (13-7-0). Dolidze has a background in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Sambo and is an accomplished grappler outside of MMA. Averaging over 2 takedowns landed a fight, Dolidze is most at home on the mat where he also averages over 1 submission attempt per fight. Dolidze is great in the clinch and very hard to shake off, and has shown an ability to throw some damaging knees to the head when clinched against the fence. Training at Xtreme Couture, Dolidze won’t punch a ton while grappling, mostly focusing on improving his position and controlling his opponent. Dolidze has good power in his hands and seems to prefer to counter-strike when on the feet, not moving his feet a ton but always moving his head. He gets his best work done in the clinch and when he breaks off from the clinch, often throwing power shots in close. Hawes is a small favorite in this bout at -170, making Dolidze a +145 underdog. While their records and UFC tenures are similar, the quality of their opponents are not. Hawes has faced and beaten much better competition than Dolidze has, whose UFC wins hold a combined UFC record of 4-13-2. Hawes isn’t going to be controlled against the fence, which seems to be Dolidze’s bread and butter, so this isn’t a tough decision. I’m taking Hawes by KO as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Hawes -170, Under 2.5 roundsMain Card
#13 Dustin Jacoby vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Light Heavyweight Bout
Dustin Jacoby: 18-5-1, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Khalil Rountree Jr.: 11-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Two high-level strikers are set to collide in this bout. Jacoby has won 4 of his last 5 fights with one draw and has wins over Da-Un Jung (15-3-1), Michael Oleksiejczuk (17-5-0), and Darren Stewart (12-9-0). Jacoby is a former professional kickboxer holding a record of 18-8-0, spending time in the premier kickboxing promotion Glory. His experience is visible in his fighting style, as he possesses excellent footwork and movement, as well as a great variety of attacks. He’s effective both at range and in the pocket but unsurprisingly prefers to stay at range where he can use his arsenal of kicks and punch combinations. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, his hands seemingly never stop moving as he’s always feinting or throwing something. He has solid output for a light heavyweight but also does a great job of managing his energy, not overexerting himself, and keeping the same pace for all 15 minutes. Jacoby is willing to grapple and will occasionally shoot for a takedown, but largely prefers to keep it on the feet where he’s most dangerous. Rountree has found victory in 3 of his last 5 bouts, with those wins coming over Karl Roberson (9-6-0), Eryk Anders (14-7-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (11-5-0). He scored the only oblique kick finish in UFC history when he absolutely obliterated Bukauskas’ knee in his second most recent fight. Rountree has a background in Muay Thai, but his best weapons are probably his hands. He’ll regularly explode forward swinging massive looping hooks throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions. Training at Syndicate MMA, Rountree is capable of fighting a slower, more technical fight despite his tendency to get wild, but can gas himself out sometimes in his search for a finish. He’s at his best early on in a fight and when he can control the center of the octagon, using his forward pressure and crazy power to damage his opponents. Rountree has never landed a takedown in the UFC and very rarely initiates grappling exchanges. Jacoby is the favorite in this bout at -175 making Rountree a +150 underdog. This is a very tough fight to predict, both have similar styles and solid experience. Considering this is going to be a kickboxing match inside a cage, I think Jacoby’s legitimate kickboxing experience and gas tank will win this one for him. I’ll take Jacoby moneyline, but the rounds are just as hard to pick. This could end in the first 15 seconds or could be 15 minutes of technical striking. I’ll roll the dice and take under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Jacoby -175, Under 2.5 roundsJosh Fremd vs. Tresean Gore
Middleweight Bout
Josh Fremd: 9-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Tresean Gore: 4-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
A matchup of two UFC newcomers, I have no idea what to expect in this fight. Fremd has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his one UFC fight being a loss to Anthony Hernandez (10-2-0). Fremd is a patient boxer who fights behind his jab and picks his shots. He has a solid kicking game but tends to throw a lot of naked kicks, not usually throwing them in combinations. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, Fremd’s best weapon is his left hand, often damaging his opponent with jabs and lead hooks. While he tends to fight at a relatively slow pace, he does pick up his volume and urgency as the fight goes on, making him more dangerous the longer a fight goes for. Fremd is willing to grapple and has solid offensive wrestling, able to land takedowns in open space as well as along the fence. Like on the feet he isn’t too aggressive from top position, focusing on advancing his position as opposed to doing a ton of damage. Fremd has the power in his hands to finish a fight, but his tendency to throw single shots often works against him. Gore has found victory in 3 of his last 5 outings, with his most recent victory coming over Gilbert Urbina (6-3-0) in the semifinals of the Ultimate Fighter 29. Gore is incredibly powerful and explosive, with serious power in both his punches and his kicks. He throws everything with maximum power and has the ability to end a fight with one shot. Gore is constantly moving forward, throwing kicks at lightning speed and holding the center of the cage. Training at American Top Team, Gore will initiate grappling exchanges and has excellent takedown defense, but seems most comfortable on the feet. Gore has a tendency to be a bit too patient on the feet, always looking for that perfect shot to end the fight with. Like his opponent, he seems to get more comfortable and increase his pace as the fight goes on, and is dangerous at any time. Gore does seem to favor his kicks over his punches a bit, often throwing numerous kicks before opening up with his hands. Fremd is a slight favorite in this fight at -160, with Gore returning as a +135 underdog. This is a brutal fight to predict: both tend to come out flat and be a bit too patient on the feet, both have the ability to wrestle, and both lack experience. Honestly, I think the biggest thing that sets them apart is Gore’s power, if he actually chooses to let his hands go he can do some serious damage. Pretty much for this reason alone, I’m going to take Gore moneyline, but the rounds are just as tough to predict. These guys could go out there and exchange jabs for 15 minutes, or someone could be asleep in 15 seconds. I think I’ve picked every fight to go under so far, so I’ll take the over here.
Picks: Gore +135, Over 2.5 roundsWaldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Jared Vanderaa
Heavyweight Bout
Waldo Cortes-Acosta: 7-0-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Jared Vanderaa: 12-9-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
A classic big boy brawl, this should be a fun heavyweight fight. Acosta is making his UFC debut in this bout and is undefeated, with his last bout being an LFA heavyweight title victory over Thomas Petersen (6-1-0). Acosta is a powerful striker, utilizing a boxing style, and has quick hands for a heavyweight. His best weapon is definitely his right hand, regularly throwing wide hooks and devastating overhands. Although he favors his right, Acosta has power in both hands and is constantly seeking a finish. Training at UKF Gym, Acosta seems to be most at home in a brawl, working inside the pocket and throwing knees and elbows in the clinch. When he lets his hands go he’s shown he can throw long, technical combinations but will often throw single shots. While he won’t usually initiate grappling exchanges, he has shown a solid ability to get back to his feet. When Acosta is on top he will often throw plenty of elbows and does a great job of not putting himself in danger in order to land ground and pound. Vanderaa has won just 1 of his previous 5 bouts, with that victory coming over Justin Tafa (5-3-0). Like his opponent Vanderaa is a classic brawler, regularly lowering his head and moving forward to throw big hooks. Vanderaa is not afraid to step into the pocket and let his hands go, regularly fighting in a phone booth. Training at Team Quest-Portland, he has a solid chin and is more than willing to eat a shot in order to land one. Vanderaa mixes up his strikes well and possesses some powerful kicks, mostly throwing to the body but occasionally throwing head kicks when at range. Vanderaa is great at striking in the clinch, often landing body kicks and knees when entering and landing hooks and elbows when exiting. He does seem to have solid cardio for a heavyweight, retaining his speed and power across all 15 minutes. He is willing to grapple and has good clinch control abilities, and trains at a wrestler-heavy camp so I’m sure he has solid grappling skills. Acosta is the favorite at -210 with Vanderaa the underdog at +175. It’s hard to pick Vanderaa here with the skid he’s been on lately, but I think this could turn out to be a pretty close brawl. Still, though, Acosta should take it, I think he has a speed and power advantage and in this type of matchup, that’s all you really need. I’ll go Acosta by KO and under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 roundsTim Means vs. Max Griffin
Welterweight Bout
Tim Means: 32-13-1, 19 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Max Griffin: 18-9-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
A fight between two exciting veterans, I’d be surprised if the judges are involved in this one. Means has won 3 of his last 5 outings and has wins over Mike Perry (14-8-0), Thiago Alves (28-15-0), and Dhiego Lima (17-9-0). Entering his 10th year in the UFC, Means is about as gritty as they come and is always down for a good scrap. Means has excellent dirty boxing in the clinch as well as devastating knees and elbows. Despite his tendency to brawl he does stay technical and very rarely overextends or overexerts himself, not often missing punches. Means has crisp boxing and underrated power and does an excellent job of attacking both the head and body equally. Training at Fit NHB, Means has a pretty upright stance on the feet but moves his head very well, and can definitely eat a shot. He averages about one takedown landed per fight so he is willing to grapple, and does a great job of controlling his opponent when he’s on top. While he doesn’t put out crazy volume there are rarely lulls in his fights, and he’s averaging about 65 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights. Griffin has also found victory in 3 of his last 5 outings, with his last three wins coming over Carlos Condit (32-14-0), Song Kenan (16-6-0), and Ramiz Brahimaj (10-4-0). Griffin is constantly moving on the feet, often staying at range and working his low kicks. His best weapon by far is his right hand, which he uses to throw damaging straights and overhands. Training at MMAGold, Griffin is at his best when he’s throwing first and coming forward, controlling the pace of the fight. He can get pulled into brawls a bit to his detriment, as he’s really at his most dangerous at range where he can throw long right hands. Griffin has power in both hands and the ability to end a fight with a single shot and pushes a solid pace on the feet. Like his opponent he doesn’t put out crazy volume but isn’t a slow fighter either, averaging about 55 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights. He averages over a takedown landed per fight so he is willing to grapple and has great takedown defense as well, sitting at 75% for his UFC career. Griffin is the favorite in this fight at -190, with Means returning as the underdog at +160. I think this is going to be a very competitive fight, both have plenty of experience and are very well-rounded. I think Griffin’s power and speed advantage will be the difference here, so I’ll take Griffin moneyline, but this one could come down to the wire. Both guys are very tough and hard to KO, and I’d be shocked to see a submission in this one, so I’ll take over 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Griffin -190, over 2.5 rounds
#5 Calvin Kattar vs. #6 Arnold Allen
Featherweight Bout
Calvin Kattar: 23-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Arnold Allen: 18-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
This is an incredibly important fight for the division and sees two dangerous men collide in the octagon. Kattar has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with those wins coming over #8 ranked featherweight Giga Chikadze (14-3-0), #12 ranked featherweight Dan Ige (15-6-0), and Jeremy Stephens (29-20-0). Kattar is a very technical, patient boxer who will fight behind his jab before letting go brutal combinations with his hands. Kattar pushes an insane pace, averaging nearly 113 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights, and can easily push this pace over 5 rounds. Training with the New England Cartel, Kattar does a great job of lulling his opponent in by staying patient and not putting out a ton of offense before letting go big combinations and darting back out to range. While he won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges he has shown some solid wrestling abilities and has outstanding takedown defense, holding a defense percentage of 91%. Kattar is one of the toughest guys to finish in the sport, proven by the 445 significant strikes he absorbed in a UD loss to #1 ranked featherweight Max Holloway (23-7-0). Allen is undefeated in the UFC, with his last three wins coming over #12 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker (21-12-0), #11 ranked featherweight Sodiq Yusuff (13-2-0), and Nik Lentz (30-12-2). Allen is an excellent technical striker, possessing serious speed and power in his hands as well as a solid arsenal of kicks. Allen has some of the best striking defense in the UFC, only absorbing about 2 significant strikes per minute on average, with a significant strike defense percentage of 66%. Allen has beautiful combinations and rarely throws single shots, and will often mix in head and body kicks at the end of his combinations. He throws everything with a ton of power but stays accurate, allowing him to push his pace across an entire fight. Training at BKK Fighters, he averages over 1 takedown landed per fight and seems equally comfortable on the ground as he is on the feet. Allen is seemingly never in the same place, constantly moving and attacking from different angles, which is part of why he’s so hard to hit. Allen is a slight favorite here at -120, making Kattar a +100 underdog. I think this is a tough matchup for both guys, with Kattar’s toughness and forward pressure countering Allen’s speed and movement well. I think ultimately Allen’s well-roundedness will be the difference maker as if he’s able to get Kattar down it should be a pretty easy path to victory for him from there. I’ll take Allen moneyline as well as over 4.5, it’s practically impossible to finish Calvin Kattar.
Picks: Allen -120, Over 4.5 rounds
UFC 280
Prelims
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Malcolm Gordon
Flyweight Bout
Muhammad Mokaev: 8-0-0, 2 KO/TKO 3 Sub.
Malcolm Gordon: 14-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
A matchup of two excellent grapplers, this is a tough one to predict. Mokaev is undefeated, with his UFC victories coming over Cody Durden (13-4-1) and Charles Johnson (11-3-0). Mokaev made a big splash in his debut with a 1st round submission, exhibiting both knockout power and excellent grappling. While he’s a well rounded fighter, Mokaev definitely prefers to take the fight to the mat and is relentless in his pursuit of takedowns. Mokaev has great chain grappling, often stringing together takedowns especially when in the clinch. When he does get the fight to the floor, he’s more likely to pursue submissions than a ground and pound finish, shown in his last fight where he had 11 minutes of control time but only landed 12 significant strikes. Training at KHK MMA Team, “The Punisher” has excellent cardio and can easily grapple for 15 minutes, but is yet to be truly tested on the feet. He has shown some solid hands and good boxing, but it’s a small sample size. Gordon has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his UFC wins coming over Franciso Figueiredo (13-5-1) and Denys Bondar (16-4-0). Like his opponent Gordon is well rounded but prefers grappling, not often spending much time on the feet before shooting in for a takedown. 11 of his 19 career fights have ended in the first round, so Gordon is clearly at his most dangerous early, often coming out guns blazing. Gordon seems comfortable on his back as well as on top, and will pursue submissions from both positions. Training at Adrenaline Training Center, Gordon has a great sense of urgency, always looking for the finish and taking advantage of openings to land ground and pound. Also similar to his opponent, he hasn’t spent much time on his feet in the UFC, but tends to throw power shots to set up his takedowns. With 4 knockout losses on his record, his easiest path to victory by far is to get the fight to the ground. Mokaev is the biggest favorite on the entire card at -1000, with Gordon the +650 underdog. Honestly, I don’t think the skill gap is as massive as it’s being made out; both have BJJ black belts, neither have great striking, both never give up on takedowns. I think it’s Gordon’s two first round losses in the UFC that have lead to these odds being so juiced. This fight could end in the first minute, or be 15 minutes of clinching along the fence, so predicting the rounds is a real challenge. Both have a good amount of first round finishes so the logical choice here is under 2.5 rounds. I’d be an idiot to pick against the biggest favorite on the card, so I won’t, but do not be surprised if Gordon pulls off a submission and kills this hype train.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Mokaev by Finish#8 Volkan Oezdemir vs. #10 Nikita Krylov
Light Heavyweight Bout
Volkan Oezdemir: 18-6-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Nikita Krylov: 28-9-0, 11 KO/TKO, 15 Sub.
This is a very exciting matchup of two fighters with vastly different styles. Oezdemir has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and holds victories over #9 ranked Light Heavyweight Paul Craig (16-5-1), #4 ranked Light Heavyweight Aleksander Rakic (14-3-0), and Ovince Saint Preux (26-16-0). Oezdemir has a background in kickboxing and holds a 5-0 record professionally prior to entering MMA, and it shows in his style. While he primarily uses his hands, tending to get into the pocket to land big shots, he has powerful kicks, and particularly devastating leg kicks. Despite his phonebox-fighting style, Oezdemir stays relatively composed, usually returning to the center of the octagon and resetting after attacking. Training at Allstars Training Center, Oezdemir has a solid chin and is willing to eat a shot to land one, but possesses good head movement as well. Oezdemir will occasionally initiate grappling exchanges, primarily preferring to remain on the feet, and has a takedown defense percentage of 86% in his UFC career. Krylov comes into this fight win wins in 2 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over #11 ranked Light Heavyweight Johnny Walker(19-7-0), Alexander Gustafsson (18-8-0), and Ed Herman (27-15-0). Averaging both over 1 takedown landed and 1 submission attempted per fight, Krylov definitely prefers to grapple. If his game plan is to grapple, he wastes no time, often shooting in for a takedown immediately. Training with YK Promotion, he uses smothering top control and is always pursuing a finish, staying active when on top and going for both submissions and ground and pound. When on his back, he’s more likely to try to escape or reverse position than attempt submissions, but has the ability to do so. On the feet, “The Miner” has a black belt in Kyokushin karate, so he has a kicking game, but will mostly use the big power he has in his hands to hurt his opponent. He’ll often use power shots to set up his takedowns, but will gladly engage in a stand up brawl if the opportunity presents itself. Krylov is a slight favorite here at -170, making Oezdemir a +145 underdog. This will be a classic case of “who does their specialty better.” If it stays standing, Oezdemir has an advantage, if it goes to the mat, Krylov has the advantage. I think Oezdemir has the takedown defense to keep this fight on the feet, which should be enough to secure him a victory. I’m taking both under 2.5 rounds and Oezdemir moneyline.
Picks: Oezdemir +145, Under 2.5 rounds#5 Belal Muhammad vs. #8 Sean Brady
Welterweight Bout
Belal Muhammad: 21-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Sean Brady: 15-0-0, 3 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Belal Muhammad has found victory in 4 of his last 5 fights with one draw, and has impressive wins over Demian Maia (28-11-0), #7 ranked welterweight Stephen Thompson (16-6-1), and #9 ranked welterweight Vicente Luque (21-9-1). Primarily a wrestler, Muhammad prefers to take the fight to the mat, using his strong double leg takedowns to drag his opponents to the floor and land ground and pound. When the fight is on the feet, Muhammad uses a heavy handed boxing style, throwing lots of technical combinations, often using his punching ability to get in close for a takedown. There’s only one fight in his UFC tenure that he won without landing a takedown, and he averages over 2 takedowns landed per fight, so his game plan is pretty clear. Training at Roufusport, he averaged about 60 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights, and is more likely to use ground and pound than pursue a submission. Brady is undefeated, with his best wins coming over #12 ranked welterweight Michael Chiesa (18-6-0), Jake Matthews (18-5-0), and Court McGee (22-11-0). Brady is an excellent grappler averaging over 3 takedowns landed per fight in his UFC career, and has controlled every opponent he’s faced. Training at Renzo Gracie Philly, Brady advances incredibly quickly on the ground and remains patient on top, using smothering top control to find submission openings. All of his career submissions have come via some kind of choke, so the fight is basically over if he can get a hold of his opponent’s neck. On the feet Brady utilizes a boxing style, not moving his feet much but throwing constant feints with his hands. While he definitely prefers to take the fight to the mat, he won’t get desperate for takedowns and is willing to engage on the feet. Brady is the slight favorite in this one at -140, with Muhammad the underdog at +120. If you know me, you know I always have and always will despise Belal Muhammad, so I’m pretty much incapable of picking him to win. Beyond that though, I believe Brady is a much more dangerous grappler and will not let Muhammad do his usual lay-and-pray. I’m taking Brady by submission and under 2.5 rounds. Fuck Belal Muhammad.
Picks: Brady by Sub., Under 2.5 roundsMain Card
#1 Katlyn Chookagian vs. #6 Manon Fiorot
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Katlyn Chookagian: 18-4-0, 2 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Manon Fiorot: 9-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
One of the most exciting matchups in this weight class in awhile, this should be a good one. Chookagian has 4 wins in her last 5 fights, and has fought a who’s who of women’s flyweight, with wins over Lauren Murphy (15-5-0), Alexis Davis (20-11-0) and Viviane Araujo (10-3-0). Training at Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, Chookagian is known for her boxing style on the feet, using crisp combos and excellent counter-punching to do damage to her opponents. Chookagian also has great kicks, and is able to use a wide variety of attacks and mix kicks in with punch combinations. While definitely a striker, Chookagian has the ability to mix it up on the ground, often resorting to ground and pound instead of submissions. She’s one of the most experienced fighters in the entire division, being tied for the most fights in the women’s flyweight division and has the second most wins of all time in that division. Her last two losses came against the very best of the division, being #4 ranked Jessica Andrade (22-9-0) and current women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0). Fiorot has won all of her last 5 bouts, with her best wins coming over #8 ranked women’s flyweight Jennifer Maia (19-9-1), Mayra Bueno Silva (9-2-1), and Tabatha Ricci (7-1-0). Fiorot is a credentialed striker, holding a black belt in karate and multiple national championships in kickboxing and Muay Thai. She’s been a force to be reckoned with on the feet in her UFC tenure, averaging about 78 significant strikes landed per fight, averaging over 6 significant strikes landed per minute. Training at Boxing Squad, she has excellent footwork and movement, as well as an arsenal of kicks that she mixes up constantly. Her best weapons are her lead leg attacks and her left hand, landing shots at range and always moving. Despite her background, “The Beast” has landed at least 1 takedown in all of her UFC fights, and has shown solid wrestling and top control. Although she has no submissions on her record, Fiorot has a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has submission ability, but seems more content pursuing ground and pound when on top. Fiorot is the favorite in this bout at -210, with Chookagian the underdog at +175. I understand why Fiorot is getting the nod here, but to overlook Chookagian is pretty foolish. She’s been at the top of the division for awhile and has only lost to the best, this is above and beyond the biggest test of Fiorot’s short MMA career. I think this will definitely be a competitive fight, but I think Chookagian has the skill and experience to steal this one. I’ll take Chookagian moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.
*Chookagian missed weight by 2 pounds
Picks: Chookagian +175, Over 2.5 rounds#6 Beneil Dariush vs. #9 Mateusz Gamrot
Lightweight Bout
Beneil Dariush: 21-4-1, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Mateusz Gamrot: 21-1-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
This is an important matchup in the UFC’s best division, and I’ve been looking forward to this one. Dariush has won all of his last 5 bouts, coming into this fight on a 7 fight win streak with victories over Tony Ferguson (26-8-0), Diego Ferreira (17-5-0), and Scott Holtzman (14-5-0). Dariush is one of the most well rounded fighters in the UFC, holding black belts in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai. Dariush is more than willing to brawl on the feet, regularly getting into slugfests and hanging in the pocket to land big shots. Training at Kings MMA, Dariush will throw kicks when at range, and also has some solid knees in the clinch. Averaging about 2 takedowns landed per fight and one submission attempted per fight, his easiest route to victory is likely grappling, possessing excellent top control and wrestling. Dariush will shoot for takedowns in the open, but stays patient on top, never putting himself in compromising positions. He also has excellent takedown defense, defending 81% of takedowns attempted on him during his 7 year UFC tenure. Gamrot has won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his best victories coming over Jeremy Stephens (29-20-0), Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0), and Diego Ferreira (17-5-0). Like his opponent, he is an incredibly well rounded fighter, and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. When he’s striking, he’s constantly moving and staying at range, remaining patient and picking his shots. What he lacks in volume he makes up for in power, throwing every shot with knockout intentions. Training at American Top Team, Gamrot is averaging a ludicrous 5 takedowns landed per fight, and has defended 90% of takedowns attempted on him. He is an excellent wrestler, refusing to give up on takedowns and never staying still on the ground, whether on top or bottom. A former KSW champion “Gamer” has excellent cardio, seemingly always moving whether he’s on the ground or on his feet. Gamrot is the favorite at -190, with Dariush the +160 underdog. I will as usual admit my bias, I love Dariush (how could you not after his fight with Drakkar Klose). Still, I think he is one of the most continually overlooked fighters at 155, and is being overlooked again. I think his constant pressure on the feet could prove a challenge for Gamrot, who mostly pushes the pace when he’s on the mat. If Dariush’s takedown defense can hold up, I really think he should win this one. I’ll take Dariush moneyline and under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Dariush +160, Under 2.5 rounds#1 Petr Yan vs. #11 Sean O’Malley
Bantamweight Bout
Petr Yan: 16-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Sean O’Malley: 15-1-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Arguably one of the most insane matchups we’ve ever been so blessed to receive, I cannot believe this fight is finally happening. Yan comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 bouts, and holds wins over #4 ranked bantamweight Cory Sandhagen (15-4-0), former featherweight champion Jose Aldo (31-8-0), and UFC Hall of Famer Urijah Faber (35-11-0). Yan is one of the most dangerous fighters this division has seen in years, with both destructive striking and dominant grappling. On the feet, Yan has excellent hands and devastating kicks, using both in tandem to damage his opponent. Training at Tiger Muay Thai, Yan never lets up his pace, always pursuing a finish and throwing with maximum power and speed. He has excellent cardio and can push a crazy pace for 25 minutes, whether he’s grappling or striking. On the ground, Yan has great takedowns and top control, often landing brutal ground and pound. This is his first fight in 2 years that isn’t for a title, with all of his UFC losses coming in title fights against the current champion Aljamain Sterling (21-3-0). O’Malley has won 4 of his last 5 outings, with his best wins coming over Raulian Paiva (21-5-0), Thomas Almeida (22-5-0), and Eddie Wineland (24-16-1). O’Malley is known for his wild striking style, throwing out a variety of spinning and flying kicks seemingly at will. Averaging nearly 8 significant strikes landed per minute, O’Malley is always pursuing the finish holding only two decision victories in the UFC, with the rest all coming via KO. O’Malley rarely engages in grappling exchanges, much preferring to stay at range and pick at his opponent with long punches and kicks. Beyond his arsenal of flashy attacks, his most dangerous weapon are his straight punches, often putting them at the end of combinations and regularly resulting in knockdowns or knockouts (see O’Malley vs Wineland). Despite his massive popularity, O’Malley is yet to truly be tested in the octagon, so this is a huge jump in competition for him. Yan is the favorite in this one at -270, making O’Malley the +220 underdog. Honestly, Yan should be an even bigger favorite. If he chooses to wrestle pretty much at all this fight is as good as over, and I think he’s a stronger and better striker than O’Malley. I’m going to take Yan by KO as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Yan by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 roundsAljamain Sterling (C) vs. #2 TJ Dillashaw
Bantamweight Title Bout
Aljamain Sterling: 21-3-0, 2 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
TJ Dillashaw: 18-4-0, 8 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
A title fight between two controversial figures, this should be quite the matchup. Sterling comes into this fight with a 7 fight winning streak, with wins over #1 ranked bantamweight Petr Yan twice (16-3-0), #4 ranked bantamweight Cory Sandhagen (15-4-0), and #8 ranked bantamweight Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0). Sterling is best known for his excellent grappling, possessing a dangerous submission game as well as solid wrestling. Sterling has smothering top control, often using ground and pound to set up his submission attempts. To back up his grappling, Sterling has some solid kickboxing on the feet, with great speed in both his hands and his kicks. Averaging about 87 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights, Sterling has the cardio to push a furious pace for all 25 minutes, whether on the feet or on the ground. Training at Serra-Longo Fight Team, Sterling averages nearly two takedowns landed per fight along with about 1 submission attempt per fight, so his easiest path to victory is pretty clear. Dillashaw has one 4 of his last 5 fights, and holds victories over former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt twice (12-5-0), former bantamweight champion Renan Barao twice (34-9-0), and Raphael Assuncao (28-9-0). Training at Treigning Lab, Dillashaw is someone always in the conversation for the 135 pound GOAT, and for good reason. Arguably one of the best strikers the division has ever seen, Dillashaw has lightning fast hands and great power for the weight class. Dillashaw is a finisher, especially in title fights, with all of his title victories coming via KO. He also has great wrestling, averaging nearly 2 takedowns landed per fight, and is dangerous anywhere the fight goes. The CEO of EPO has 6 fights on his UFC record in which he landed more than 100 significant strikes, so he can match his power with volume. He also has defended 86% of takedowns attempted on him in his UFC career, so if he’s taking over on the feet it’s quite the challenge to take him down. Sterling is the favorite here at -170, with Dillashaw the +145 underdog. My bias continues on this card: I hate Dillashaw, but I don’t think this affects my pick too much. In my opinion, Dillashaw lost that fight against Sandhagen, so he shouldn’t even be here. I think Sterling’s grappling will be too much for Dillashaw, but if it stays on the feet, Aljo could be in trouble. Either way, I’m taking Sterling moneyline and over 4.5 rounds.
Picks: Sterling -170, Over 4.5 rounds#1 Charles Oliveira vs. #4 Islam Makhachev
Lightweight Title Bout
Charles Oliveira: 33-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 21 Sub.
Islam Makhachev: 22-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Probably the best matchup in years, I am absolutely ecstatic for this fight. Oliveira enters this bout on an 11 fight win streak, with title victories against #5 ranked lightweight Michael Chandler (23-7-0), #2 ranked lightweight Dustin Poirier (28-7-0), and #3 ranked lightweight Justin Gaethje ((23-4-0) say what you want, this was a title defense). Oliveira could be the most well rounded fighter of all time, with some of the most deadly BJJ in the UFC and absolute bricks for hands. It truly doesn’t matter where the fights ends up, his opponent is never safe, whether he’s on top, bottom, or standing up. While he established himself as a submission artist, Oliveira has really rounded out his game, adding some excellent Muay Thai to his skillset. Averaging over 2 takedowns landed per fight and nearly 3 submission attempts per fight, it’s basically a given to see grappling in an Oliveira fight. Training at Chute Boxe, he has proven his ability to stay calm in deep waters, regularly getting dropped in his fights only to come back and find a way to win. Makhachev comes into this fight on a 10 fight win streak, with his best wins coming over #14 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker (21-12-0), #10 ranked lightweight Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0), and Thiago Moises (16-6-0). Makhachev is famously the protege of Khabib Nurmagomedov, so he unsurprisingly fights nearly identical to his mentor. With absolutely dominant wrestling and an extensive sambo background, Makhachev is an animal on the ground, always pursuing the finish. Averaging just over 3 takedowns landed per fight, Makhachev rarely wastes much time on the feet, often shooting immediately. Makhachev has excellent top control, landing vicious ground and pound until his opponent is out or until he can find a submission. While he doesn’t always have crazy output in terms of punches, he often doesn’t need to, finding the finish in the first round in his last two fights. Somehow, Makhachev is the favorite at -190, with Oliveira a +160 underdog. If you’ve read any of my older articles, you’d know I’ve learned my lesson when it comes to counting out Charlie Olives. Honestly, at this point he might be the GOAT of plus money. I don’t think I need to explain myself: I’m taking Oliveira by finish, and under 4.5 rounds. The champion has a name, and it’s Charles Oliveira.
Picks: Oliveira by Finish, Under 4.5 rounds
UFC 279
Prelims
Denis Tiuliulin vs. Jamie Pickett
Middleweight Bout
Denis Tiuliulin: 10-6-0, 8 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Jamie Pickett: 13-7-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
A matchup of two heavy handed strikers, I’d be surprised if this went to a decision. Tiuliulin comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 bouts, with this being his second UFC fight after a short notice debut loss to Aliaskhab Khizriev (14-0-0). Tiuliulin is a fast starter, with only a single decision win on his record and the majority of his finishes coming in the first round. He’s at his best when he’s controlling the center of the cage, pressuring forward and throwing big hooks in the pocket. Training at Evolve MMA, Tiuliulin does a great job of turning fights into scraps, willing to take shots in order to stand and bang at close range. While he mostly uses his hands, he will throw kicks and flying knees at range, and has excellent killer instinct, always pouncing on his opponent when given an opportunity to end the fight. Tiuliulin rarely initiates grappling exchanges, and with 3 of his 6 losses coming via submission, he’s clearly more comfortable on the feet. Pickett has also won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his UFC victories coming over Joseph Holmes (8-2-0) and Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0). Pickett does tend to come out a little slow, often taking some time to find his range and timing before really engaging. Pickett mostly throws straights, usually only throwing hooks when he’s in the pocket, and often blitzes forward with big combinations. Although he starts slow, he has solid cardio, often picking up the pace in the later stages of the fight when his opponent begins to fade. Pickett is willing to grapple but mostly seems to do so when he’s losing the striking battle, and is more than willing to clinch against the cage for long stretches of time. Training at Port City Sports Performance, Pickett is a very lengthy striker who’s at his best when he’s controlling the center of the octagon and using his reach. “The Night Wolf” does have a solid arsenal of kicks particularly when at range, but favors his hands more, often throwing out naked kicks with no setup. Pickett is a slight favorite at -135, with Tiuliulin the underdog at +115. I think Pickett is getting the nod on experience alone, he’s a slow starter facing someone who’s by far at their best in the first round, making this a pretty tough matchup for him. I’ll definitely take under 2.5 rounds, but I also like Tiuliulin in this one. Pickett may have a grappling advantage, but I don’t think Tiuliulin will allow him enough time to use those skills.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Tiuliulin +115 Hakeem Dawodu vs. Julian Erosa
Catchweight Bout
Hakeem Dawodu: 13-2-1, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Julian Erosa: 27-10-0, 11 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.
A matchup of two very exciting featherweights, I’m looking forward to this one. A fighter I’ve covered before (UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland), Dawodu has won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins coming over Michael Trizano (10-3-0), Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1), and Julio Arce (18-5-1). Dawodu is an excellent counter-striker, utilizing a sharp kickboxing style to damage his opponents. Dawodu does a great job of mixing up his strikes, evenly attacking the head, legs, and body with a variety of punches and kicks. Training at Champion’s Creed MMA, he possesses one of the more impressive kicking arsenals I’ve seen, particularly with his low kicks, attacking from different angles to deal serious damage to the legs and body. Dawodu will occasionally throw some flashy attacks, but has great fundamentals and keeps his striking technical throughout the entire fight. “Mean” has struggled on the ground in the past, getting taken down 9 times by Movsar Evloev (16-0-0), and has no interest in taking the fight to the mat, only clinching when he’s hurt. Another fighter I covered on the same card as Dawodu, Erosa has similarly won 4 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over Sean Woodson (9-1-1), Charles Jourdain (13-6-1), and Steven Peterson (19-10-0). Erosa has an awkward style on the feet, staying very upright with his hands down, throwing lots of looping hooks from strange angles. Erosa is seemingly always moving forward, whether that’s to initiate a grappling exchange or to land strikes, and has the cardio to do so over 3 rounds. “Juicy J” is very willing to get into brawls on the feet, gladly hanging in the pocket and exchanging combinations. Training at Xtreme Couture, Erosa averages about 2 takedowns landed per fight, and is a slick submission artist, with two UFC victories via D’arce choke, one of which was standing. Although Erosa has some KO losses on his record, the majority of those came in round 1, so if his opponent can’t take him out early he only gets more dangerous as the fight goes on. Dawodu is a decent favorite in this fight at -220, making Erosa a +185 underdog. This is truly going to be a matchup of who’s better at their own game; if Erosa can get the fight to the mat, Dawodu will have no response, but Dawodu is definitely a more technical striker than Erosa. I honestly can’t pick a winner in this one so I’ll just go with my bias, I love watching Erosa fight so I’ll take him to win this one by submission. Picking the rounds is just as challenging, but I’ll cautiously take under 2.5 rounds.
Hakeem Dawodu missed weight for this bout by 4 pounds, weighing in at 150 pounds.
Picks: Erosa by Sub., Under 2.5 roundsMain Card
Johnny Walker vs. Ion Cutelaba
Light Heavyweight Bout
Johnny Walker: 18-7-0, 15 KO/TKO 2 Sub.
Ion Cutelaba: 16-7-1, 12 KO/TKO 2 Sub.
A fight between two men in need of a win, I don’t expect the judges to be involved in this one. Walker has won just one of his last 5 fights, and has wins over Ryan Spann (20-7-0), Misha Cirkunov (15-8-0), Khalil Rountree Jr. (11-5-0). When Walker first entered the promotion, he broke off a string of three straight first rounds knockouts, showing he’s clearly at his most dangerous early on. He has considerably slowed down his style since, seeming to prefer staying at range, mostly using his kicks to land damage. Walker is constantly moving and using feints, and is at his best when he’s moving forward and leading the fight, often struggling when put on the backfoot. Despite originally being known for his recklessness, Walker doesn’t seem to have any interest in getting into brawls, and is much better off in a technical kickboxing match than a wild scrap. Training at SBG Ireland, Walker is huge even for light heavyweight, and uses his size and reach to keep out of his opponents range and land strikes. Cutelaba has found victory in 1 of his last 5 fights, along with a draw, and has wins over Devin Clark (13-7-0), and Khalil Rountree (11-5-0). Famous for his antics at weigh-ins, Cutelaba has earned a reputation as a wild fighter, but has really focused on his wrestling in recent fights. He’s landed 20 takedowns in just his last 3 fights, and does a great job of timing his shots in open space. Cutelaba rarely pursues submissions, usually preferring to smash his opponent with devastating ground and pound (his two submission wins are both by omoplata somehow). On the feet, “The Hulk” has one-punch knockout power in his hands and is always pursuing a finish, never looking to just touch up his opponent. Training at CSA Moldova, Cutelaba averages about 5 strikes landed per minute, and never stops pressuring his opponent. Of his twelve knockouts, eleven of them came in the first round, showing Cutelaba is obviously at his most dangerous early on. Cutelaba is the favorite at -220 with Walker the underdog at +180. It’s hard to go against the odds here, Walker really hasn’t looked great lately and hasn’t done well in high pace brawls, which is exactly what Cutelaba does. I’ll take Cutelaba moneyline as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Cutelaba -220, Under 2.5 rounds#4 (BW) Irene Aldana vs. #10 (BW) Macy Chiasson
Women’s Catchweight Bout
Irene Aldana: 13-6-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Macy Chiasson: 9-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
This fight features two powerful strikers in an important matchup for the division. Aldana has won 3 of her last 5 bouts, and holds wins over #6 ranked Bantamweight Yana Kunitskaya (14-6-0), #2 ranked Bantamweight Ketlen Viera (13-2-0), and Lucie Pudilova (14-7-0). Aldana is about as pure of a boxer as you see in MMA these days, using practically just her hands and very rarely throwing kicks. Aldana is patient on the feet, never overextending or getting reckless, but puts power into each shot and doesn’t seem content to point fight. Her most dangerous weapon is her left hook, which she used to gain 2 first round knockouts in her last 3 wins. Aldana isn’t the most physically intimidating, making her power a bit deceptive, as it seems opponents don’t give her the respect she deserves, then wake up on the mat. Training at Lobo Gym MMA, she makes great use of footwork and head movement to avoid damage, while averaging over 5 significant strikes landed per minute. Chiasson has also won 3 of her last 5, and has victories over Norma Dumont (7-2-0), Shanna Young (9-5-0), and Pannie Kianzad (17-6-0). Chiasson is a lengthy fighter, using her reach to attack both the head and body, often landing big shots when at range. While she’s mostly known for her striking, She has really upped her grappling lately, landing at least 1 takedown in all of her last 4 fights and 6 in her most recent bout. When she does get the fight to the mat, Chiasson uses solid top control to land ground and pound, not usually pursuing submissions. Training at Fortis MMA, Chiasson was the winner of the 28th season of the Ultimate Fighter, winning via finish in both the semifinal and final rounds of the tournament. She has a decent arsenal of kicks to back up her hands, throwing a good variety of kicks to the head and body, especially front kicks. What Chiasson lacks in volume she makes up for in size and power, as well as a good clinch striking game that complements her recently grappling tendencies well. Aldana is the favorite in this fight at -175, with Chiasson the underdog at +150. I’m honestly surprised the odds are as close as they are, I think there’s a sizeable skill gap between these two, with Aldana seemingly being more put together. Aldana definitely has the striking advantage, and although Chiasson has been grappling in her recent fights, Aldana has great takedown defense so I don’t think that will matter much. I’ll take over 2.5 rounds and Aldana moneyline.
Picks: Aldana -175, Over 2.5 roundsDaniel Rodriguez vs. #14 (WW) Li Jiangliang
Catchweight Bout
Daniel Rodriguez: 16-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Li Jiangliang: 19-7-0, 10 KO/TKO 4 Sub.
A matchup of two exciting strikers, this should be an exciting fight. Rodriguez has found victory in four of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over Mike Perry (14-8-0), Tim Means (32-13-1), and Kevin Lee (19-7-0) (that’s where he fits into all of this). Rodriguez’ build is a bit deceptive for how he fights, using a Muay Thai style, although he does favor his hands over his kicks. Rodriguez is a great technical striker, fighting behind his jab and always pushing for a finish, but stays technical over 3 rounds. Training at Syndicate MMA, Rodriguez has great movement and footwork on the feet, attacking from different angles with a variety of strikes. “D-Rod” has some very fast kicks, usually throwing to the legs at the beginning and end combinations. He has also proven to possess serious toughness, exhibited in his incredible comeback against Dwight Grant (11-6-0) in one of my personal favorite one round fights of all time. He’s unlikely to initiate grappling, but has solid takedown defense and is usually able to get back to his feet where' he’s most comfortable. Li has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and holds victories over Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-6-0), Dhiego Lima (17-9-0), and Muslim Salikhov (18-3-0). Li is a solid striker with a background in Sanda (Chinese kickboxing), constantly moving and never keeping his head on the centerline. Li has been hard to hit in his UFC career, with a strike defense percentage of 58%, and only needs to land one shot to put an opponent away. While he doesn’t put out a ton of volume in terms of strikes, he makes up for it in accuracy and power, able to end the fight seemingly from anywhere at any time. Li is patient on the feet, often throwing out numerous leg kicks while looking for openings to land devastating power shots. Training at China Top Team, he averages about a takedown landed per fight and has a black belt in BJJ, so he is more than willing to grapple. He’s most dangerous when he’s able to cut off the cage and get into the pocket, throwing every punch with fight-ending intentions. Rodriguez is the favorite in this bout at -160, with Li the underdog at +135. I really have no clue how to predict this one, but I think Rodriguez’ forward pressure counters Li’s patience, so I’ll take Rodriguez by knockout as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Rodriguez by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 roundsDue to the reshuffling of the top 3 fights, these fighters both weighed in at different weights. Li weighed in at 170 pounds, with Rodriguez weighing in at 179.
Kevin Holland vs. #3 (WW) Khamzat Chimaev
A matchup I don’t think anyone could’ve predicted, I can’t wait to see this one. Holland has won 2 of his last 5 fights with one No Contest, and has wins over Joaquin Buckley (15-5-0), Jacare Souza (26-10-0), and Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0). Holland has surged in popularity since 2020, with fans loving his brash, loud-mouth style in which he will spend an entire fight talking to his opponent, regardless of whether he’s winning or losing. Holland is an aggressive striker, typically throwing combinations and always willing to engage on the feet. He does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket, although has no problem hanging in close to exchange on the inside. Training at Travis Lutter BJJ, Holland tends throw kicks when at range, using his kicks to set up his hands, often throwing kicks naked or at the start of combination. After fighting most of his UFC career at Middleweight, this marks his third venture into the Welterweight division, and has looked both bigger and stronger in the weight class. While he has struggled with his takedown defense in the past, he’s shown solid improvement as of late, and despite preferring striking actually has a slick submission game. Chimaev is undefeated, with his best wins coming over Gilbert Burns (20-5-0) and Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0). Chimaev is one of the biggest hype trains in the sport right now, only absorbing a single strike in his UFC career prior to the Burns fight. Chimaev has one-punch knockout power, and proved he’s able and willing to eat a shot, making him dangerous at all times on the feet. Training at Allstars Training Center, Chimaev is a dominant wrestler, using devastating ground and pound and heavy top pressure to finish his opponent on the mat. “Borz” is lengthy for the division and uses it well, often landing power shots at range and using his striking to set up his wrestling attack. It’s impossible not to mention that Chimaev is the cause of all the chaos on this pay-per-view, missing weight by 7.5 pounds, leading to a complete restructuring of the card. Chimaev is the sizable favorite at -500, with Holland the underdog at +380. It’s hard to pick against Chimaev especially with a short notice opponent, so I’ll take Chimaev by KO/TKO as well as under 4.5 rounds.
Picks: Chimaev by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 roundsChimaev missed weight for his originally scheduled bout against Nate Diaz, weighing in at 178.5 pounds, 7.5 pounds over the welterweight limit. Holland weighed in at 179 pounds for his originally scheduled catchweight bout against Daniel Rodriguez.
Nate Diaz vs. #11 (LW) Tony Ferguson
Welterweight Bout
Nate Diaz: 21-13-0, 4 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.
Tony Ferguson: 26-7-0, 13 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
A matchup fans have been asking for for years, I cannot wait for this to finally take place. Diaz has won 2 of his last 5 bouts, and has wins over former UFC Featherweight/Lightweight champion Conor McGregor (22-6-0), former UFC Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (25-14-0), and Donald Cerrone (36-17-0). Diaz is well known as one of the toughest and most battle-tested competitors in the sport, proving time and again both his granite chin and excellent cardio. On the feet, Diaz uses a classic boxing style keeping his hands high and throwing in high volume. Diaz doesn’t have crazy power by any means, but more than makes up for it in sheer volume, averaging just above 95 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights. Diaz is an excellent grappler with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and is extremely comfortable both on his back and on top. When on the ground, Diaz is much more likely to pursue a finish via submission as opposed to ground and pound. Ferguson has won just one of his last 5 fights, and has wins over former UFC Lightweight champions Rafael Dos Anjos (31-14-0) and Anthony Pettis (25-14-0), as well as #13 ranked featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0). Ferguson is one of the most beloved and respected fighters in the sport, going on a 12 fight win streak between 2013 and 2019. “El Cucuy” is well known for his unique style, moving awkwardly on the feet and doing odd things like throwing imaginary sand at his opponent. Ferguson has an excellent jab and solid boxing, and is always willing to engage on the feet, fighting with a “kill or be killed” mentality. He also has fantastic grappling, possessing solid wrestling and one of the best submission games in the sport. With all 8 of his career submission wins coming via some form of choke, the fight is practically over if Ferguson can get ahold of his opponents neck, especially if he locks in his patented D’arce choke. Surprisingly, Ferguson is the favorite here at -135, with Diaz the underdog at +115. I told myself I’d stop picking Tony to win, but after all the insanity of this card, I feel like I have to. I’ll take Ferguson moneyline and over 4.5 rounds.
Picks: Ferguson -135, Over 4.5 rounds
UFC 278
Prelims
Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Miranda Maverick: 12-4-0, 1 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Shanna Young: 9-5-0, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
A rematch of great young contenders, their first meeting came in the Invicta FC Flyweight Tournament in 2019. Maverick would go on to win that bout via first round submission and comes into this fight with wins in 3 of her last five outings. Her most impressive victories came over Sabina Mazo (9-4-0), Gillian Robertson (10-7-0), and Liana Jojua (8-5-0), along with what is, in my opinion, one of the worst judged split decision losses of all time to Maycee Barber (11-2-0). Training with Team Elevation, Maverick has good power in her hands and is willing to exchange in the pocket, and has shown a solid chin, having never been finished in her career. She rarely throws single shots, typically throwing big combinations while mixing in an array of kicks. Maverick is constantly moving and does an excellent job of changing levels with her strikes, particularly with her kicks, throwing to the head, legs, and body evenly. She is an excellent grappler, willing to work hard against the cage to get takedowns, and transitions very quickly once she does get the fight to the mat. She’s more likely to pursue a submission than ground and pound but has the power to finish people if she chooses to do so. Young has found victory in 2 of her last five fights, with those wins coming over Gina Mazany (7-6-0) and Maiju Suotama (1-4-0). She has a black belt in karate and shows it in her striking style, with a wide stance and plenty of lead leg attacks and powerful straights. Young has powerful kicks, often adding them to the end of combinations or throwing them out in the open. Training at Knoxville Martial Arts Academy, Young is at her best when she’s controlling the middle of the octagon, using her lead leg and combinations to pick her opponents apart. She does also have a grappling background, having been an All-American wrestler in college, and will usually pursue ground and pound if she’s in top position. “The Shanimal” (yikes) doesn’t usually initiate grappling exchanges, but has the cardio and experience to grapple if she needs to, remaining calm even in tough spots. Maverick is the second biggest favorite on the card at -550, making Young a +400 underdog. I definitely side with the oddsmakers on this one, I expect Maverick to overwhelm Young and pick up a finish, similar to their first fight. I’ll take both under 2.5 rounds as well as Maverick by finish.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Maverick by FinishSean Woodson vs. Luis Saldana
Featherweight Bout
Sean Woodson: 9-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Luis Saldana: 16-7-0, 7 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
A matchup between two hot up-and-comers, I’d be surprised to see the judges involved in this one. Woodson has won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins coming over Terrance McKinney (13-4-0), Yousef Zalal (10-5-1), and Kyle Bochniak (11-7-0). Woodson is an experienced striker with an amateur boxing record of 46-3, and it shows in the octagon, using fluid boxing to piece his opponents up. Woodson is the tallest active featherweight in the UFC at 6’2, and he uses his length well, throwing long punches and kicks from range along with plenty of feints. He is willing to throw some wild shots, particularly flying knees, and has a good variety of kicks to back up his boxing. Woodson does a good job of switching up his strikes, often throwing devastating uppercuts to the body, even securing a finish with body shots in his last fight against Colin Anglin (8-5-0). Training at Glory MMA, Woodson is typically hard to take down, especially against the fence, using his size to keep the fight on the feet. When he is taken down, he does a good job of getting back to his feet quickly and returning to the center of the cage where he’s most comfortable. Saldana has also won 4 of his last 5 fights, with wins over Bruno Souza (10-3-0), Jordan Griffin (18-9-0), and Vince Murdock (12-6-0). Saldana similarly has a boxing background, but is a much more wild striker, throwing spinning attacks and devastating kicks. Saldana is a very fluid striker, with quick hands and kicks, usually coming out quickly, although he did show improved patience in his last performance. He has gassed out later in fights before, but with this enhanced patience, he may have overcome this. With finishes in 14 of his 16 wins, Saldana is always trying to put his opponent away, whether on the ground or on the feet. Training at Fight Ready, Saldana has great movement on the feet and is willing to grapple, possessing solid takedowns and good top control. He seems comfortable on the ground and on the feet, not afraid to engage anywhere, but prefers striking a bit more. Woodson is a decent favorite here at -340, with Saldana the underdog at +270. I am surprised at how wide these odds are, Woodson’s record may be a lot shinier but the skill gap doesn’t seem to be very wide. It’s hard to predict a winner here, but I will take under 2.5 rounds, both are aggressive strikers and I expect them to push the pace. I will cautiously take the favorite here with Woodson by KO, Saldana’s gas tank problems in the past could be the difference maker, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Saldana stole this one.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Woodson by KO/TKOLeonardo Santos vs. Jared Gordon
Lightweight Bout
Leonardo Santos: 18-6-1, 3 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Jared Gordon: 18-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Santos has found victory in 3 of his last 5 fights, with his best wins coming over Kevin Lee (19-7-0), Stevie Ray (25-10-0), and Efrain Escudero (30-14-0). Santos found his way into the UFC by winning the second season of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil, and despite his relatively advanced age of 42, he doesn’t have a ton of fights or miles on him. Training at the legendary Novo Uniao, Santos has a great Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree, but is confident in his striking and seems to mostly use his BJJ as a fallback, averaging just 1 takedown landed per fight. “Nenhum” uses long straights and powerful kicks to the legs and body on the feet, exhibiting good power in both his punches and kicks. Santos also has great takedown defense, defending about 84% of takedowns attempted on him, and when the fight hits the mat, he’s very comfortable on top and on his back. Also, contrary to his age, Santos has shown solid cardio and seems to go 3 rounds with relative ease, but will sometimes gas himself out chasing a finish. Gordon has also won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his best victories coming over Joe Solecki (12-3-0), Bill Algeo (16-6-0), and Chris Fishgold (18-4-1). Averaging about 2 takedowns landed per fight, Gordon has great wrestling both in open space and on the fence, but is willing to stand and exchange as well. On the feet, he’ll often get into the pocket and lower his head, throwing powerful hooks and uppercuts. At range, he gets out of the way of damage well and often throws damaging leg kicks. When it does go to the ground, Gordon prefers ground and pound to chasing a submission, applying heavy top control and landing devastating shots. Training at Sanford MMA, Gordon does a great job of pushing the pace the entire fight, often relentless in his search for a takedown or engaging in brawls inside the pocket. Gordon is the favorite here at -300, making Santos a +240 underdog. I don’t think the odds fully represent how close this fight could be, both are very well rounded and experienced, as well as hard to put away. I’ll take over 2.5 rounds, I do expect a fair bit of grappling in this one and wouldn’t be surprised to see a decision. While I think Santos has the ability to win this fight, I think the cardio advantage of Jared Gordon is what will make the difference here. Santos has gassed out in his last two losses, and with the pace Gordon pushes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen again.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Gordon -300#11 Marcin Tybura vs. #13 Alexandr Romanov
Heavyweight Bout
Marcin Tybura: 22-7-0, 9 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Alexandr Romanov: 16-0-0, 6 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Tybura has wins in 4 of his last 5 fights, with his best victories coming over Walt Harris (13-10-0), Ben Rothwell (39-14-0), and Maxim Grishin (32-9-2). Tybura is a great wrestler who’s willing to strike, possessing classic heavyweight KO power and great takedowns. On the feet, Tybura will throw a decent variety of kicks at range, as well as powerful hooks in the pocket. Tybura is at his best on the feet when he’s moving forward and pressuring his opponent, but his easiest path to victory is through his grappling. Tybura has an excellent takedown game, often slamming his opponent down and advancing position quickly on the ground. Training at Ankos MMA, he will usually pursue ground and pound as opposed to a submission, using heavy top control to land big shots. “Tybur” has shown he has the cardio to go 3 rounds, whether he’s grappling or striking, and seems to be comfortable wherever the fight goes. Entering his 6th year in the UFC, Tybura has faced a who’s who of the heavyweight division and is very experienced. Romanov is undefeated, with his most impressive wins coming over Jared Vanderaa (12-9-0), Juan Espino (11-2-0), and Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-9-1). Romanov has an excellent background in freestyle wrestling, often pursuing slam takedowns and suplexes, ragdolling massive heavyweights with ease. When he doesn’t slam his opponent, Romanov works hard on the fence and in open space to get the fight to the mat. “King Kong” transitions quickly on the ground, always trying to advance position to obtain a finish. Training at Lion Club, he seems to prefer submissions over ground and pound, but he has big power and can land serious shots when on top. When pursuing a submission, he will typically go for a choke, with 7 of his 9 submission victories coming via some form of choke. On the feet, Romanov is quick for a heavyweight and not afraid to let his hands go, gladly engaging in huge exchanges in the pocket. Romanov has only gone to the third round 4 times in his career, with just a single decision in 16 fights, so he is always looking for the finish, whether on the feet or on the ground. Romanov is the favorite in this bout at -380, with Tybura the underdog at +300. Once again, picking rounds is much easier in this bout, and I’m pretty confident this one ends within the distance, so I’ll take under 2.5 rounds. I hate to pick exclusively favorites, but Romanov is a favorite for a reason. Both are heavy handed wrestlers, and I think Romanov is the better wrestler, so I expect to see him pick up another finish.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Romanov by FinishMain Card
I will not be covering either the Pedro vs. Hunsucker fight or Wu vs. Pudilova. After looking into both of these fights, I quite frankly think they’re garbage matchups and not worth the effort of writing a full preview of. The combined UFC record of Wu and Pudilova is 3-9, and Tyson Pedro is being fed a can who is 0-2 in the UFC (0-3 if you include the Contender Series) while the UFC tries to build him back up. Just for the hell of it though, I’ll give you my picks: Pedro by KO/TKO, Pudilova by Dec.
#3 Jose Aldo vs. #6 Merab Dvalishvili
Bantamweight Bout
Jose Aldo: 31-7-0, 17 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Merab Dvalishvili: 14-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
A fight between two of my favorite fighters, I’ve been looking forward to this matchup for awhile. Aldo comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 fights, with those wins coming over #7 ranked UFC bantamweight Rob Font (19-6-0), #9 ranked UFC bantamweight Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0), and #5 ranked UFC bantamweight Chito Vera (20-7-1). Widely considered the featherweight GOAT, Aldo is a legend of the sport, holding 8 victories in championship fights and has been fighting the best in the world for over a decade. Considering how long he’s been around, Aldo is still just 35 years old, possessing as much power and speed as he had when he was a champion. Training at Novo Uniao, Aldo’s leg kicks, body shots, and devastating KO power is legendary, and his opponent is never safe at any point in the fight. Aldo also has some of the best anti-wrestling of all time, holding a takedown defense percentage of 90%, which is incredible considering he’s been in the UFC for 11 years. Now at bantamweight, Aldo looks just as sharp as he did at 145, and possibly even faster, and has a greater wealth of experience and knowledge than just about any fighter. Dvalishvili has won all of his last 5 fights, with his best wins coming over Marlon Moraes (23-10-1), Cody Stamann (20-5-1), and John Dodson (23-13-0). Dvalishvili has monstrous cardio, relentlessly pursuing takedowns and landing big flurries on the feet. He’s proved to be extremely hard to put away, shown in one of the craziest rounds of all time in his fight with Marlon Moraes (seriously, if you haven’t seen that fight, watch it). Training with the excellent Serra-Longo Fight Team, Dvalishvili’s constant wrestling threat helps to mask his striking, often coming forward with powerful hooks and big combinations. Fittingly nicknamed “The Machine,” Dvalishvili never seems to stop moving, whether he’s pressuring forward with his striking, pursuing a takedown, or landing devastating ground and pound. Dvalishvili is a slight favorite at -135, with Aldo the +115 underdog. Picking a winner in this fight is extremely challenging, not only as a fan of both fighters but from an unbiased standpoint as well. Dvalishvili could overwhelm Aldo with his wrestling, but I could also see Aldo being too much for Dvalishvili on the feet. I think the easier pick is going to be over 2.5 rounds, both are tough as nails and I’d be surprised to see either get finished. If I absolutely have to pick a winner, I’m going to cautiously take Aldo. I really have no justification, this is a great fight and I love both guys, I’m strictly going with my gut here.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Aldo +115#6 Paulo Costa vs Luke Rockhold
Middleweight Bout
Paulo Costa: 13-2-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Luke Rockhold: 16-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
A matchup between two well respected middleweight contenders, I definitely expect fireworks. Costa has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his most impressive victories coming over Yoel Romero (14-6-0), Uriah Hall (18-11-0), and former UFC Welterweight champion Johny Hendricks (18-8-0). Costa is best known for his devastating power, steamrolling his way to a title shot with 4 straight knockouts followed by an all-time banger with Romero. After having some serious weight problems in his last bout, Costa looks even more shredded than before, seeming to have no issue with the weight cut. Although he practically never initiates grappling exchanges, “The Eraser” does have a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and is definitely competent on the ground. Training with the Pitbull Brothers, Costa is at his best when pressuring forward, throwing bombs and powerful kicks, especially to the body. Averaging almost 7 strikes landed per minute as well as about 7 strikes absorbed per minute, Costa is more than willing to eat a shot to land a shot. Rockhold has won 2 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over former UFC Middleweight champions Chris Weidman (15-6-0) and Michael Bisping (30-9-0), as well as former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida (26-12-0). Rockhold is a former UFC and Strikeforce Middleweight champion and hasn’t gone to a decision since 2012, fighting with a “kill or be killed” mentality. Training at the excellent American Kickboxing Academy, Rockhold has some of the best wrestling and top control in the sport, able to submit people or put them out with ground and pound. Rockhold also has excellent kickboxing, possessing arguably the nicest question mark kick in the sport, and has knockout power in both his kicks and punches. Although he seems to want to stand up and strike in his recent fights, his easiest path to victory is his wrestling, as his chin has looked questionable in his late career. Costa is a sizeable favorite in this one at -400, making Rockhold a +310 underdog. Considering how sporadically Rockhold has fought (5 times in the last 7 years) and how he’s been put out so many times, it’s pretty hard to go against the oddsmakers. Costa easily has the power to put him away, and is looking in much better shape after his weight debacle in the Vettori fight, so I expect Costa to put Rockhold to sleep. I’m taking Costa by KO/TKO as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Costa by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds#2 Leon Edwards vs (C) Kamaru Usman
Welterweight Title Bout
Leon Edwards: 19-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Kamaru Usman: 20-1-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
A title fight that’s actually a rematch, this is a fight fans have been waiting for for a long time. Edwards has not lost a fight since losing to Usman in 2015, with his best wins coming over former UFC Lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos (31-14-0), #10 ranked UFC Welterweight Vicente Luque (21-9-1), and Nate Diaz (21-13-0). Edwards is a very polished striker, holding the sixth fastest finish in UFC history with his 8 second KO in his second UFC fight, and is dangerous across all 25 minutes. Edwards has outstruck 8 of his last 10 opponents, and has averaged about 60 strikes landed in his last 5 fights (1 of which was a no contest ending in the first round, which really skewed the average), so he’s capable of putting out a decent volume of shots. In the time since his last loss, Edwards has truly become a complete MMA fighter, adding solid wrestling and grappling to his already excellent striking game. Training with Team Renegade, Edwards actually averages over 1 takedown landed per fight, so he is definitely willing to take it to the ground and is comfortable both on top and off his back. Usman is undefeated in the UFC, and has title defenses over #1 ranked UFC welterweight Colby Covington twice (17-3-0), #9 ranked UFC welterweight Jorge Masvidal twice (35-16-0), and #4 ranked UFC welterweight Gilbert Burns (20-5-0). There’s not much to be said about Usman that hasn’t already been said, the champion is quickly making his case for welterweight GOAT. Going into his 6th title defense, Usman is the longest reigning active champion, and has dominated everyone he’s faced. Coming into the UFC after winning the 21st season of The Ultimate Fighter, Usman started his career as a dominant wrestler, using takedowns and ground and pound to find victory. Usman has added some excellent boxing to complement his wrestling, possessing one of the best jabs in the business and some serious power in his hands. Training at the excellent ONX Sports, “The Nigerian Nightmare” is a serious problem anywhere the fight goes, able to find the finish both on the feet and on the ground with relative ease. Unsurprisingly, Usman is the favorite at -360, with Edwards the +280 underdog. It’s incredibly hard to pick against Usman at this point, even though I think Edwards has a better chance at victory than a lot of Usman’s recent opponents. I definitely think Edwards has the ability to win this fight, but I can’t say I really expect it. I’ll take Usman moneyline, as well as over 4.5 rounds.
Picks: Usman -360, Over 2.5 rounds
UFC 274 Preview
Prelims
#6 Brandon Royval vs. #9 Matt Schnell
Flyweight Bout
Brandon Royval: 13-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Matt Schnell: 15-5-0, 2 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
An exciting matchup of flyweight grapplers, this is a great fight to kick off the prelims. Royval comes into this fight having won 3 of his last 5, with wins over #11 ranked Tim Elliott (19-12-1), #8 ranked Rogerio Bontorin (16-4-0), and #2 ranked Kai Kara-France (24-9-0). In just 5 fights in the UFC, Royval has already faced a who’s who of the flyweight division and came into the UFC as the LFA flyweight champion. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, “Raw Dawg” (top tier nickname) has consistently been in exciting fights, having one of the wildest striking exchanges I’ve ever seen with Kara-France. I covered Royval’s last bout against Bontorin (find the article here), where he showcased a definite willingness to strike, kickboxing at range and quickly darting in and out to land shots. He’s shown he’s comfortable just about anywhere, with an excellent submission game from his back as well as on top, as well as a solid enough chin to get into brawls. Royval is definitely more likely to pursue a submission as opposed to ground and pound, being particularly adept at chokes and joint locks. With a black belt in BJJ, he’s more than proficient in grappling, and his striking seems to improve with every fight. Royval does a great job of pushing the pace over all three rounds, never seeming too desperate to find a better position or land strikes. While his wrestling is a bit lackluster, he more than makes up for that with his skill from his back, making his opponents a bit more wary of taking him down. Schnell has won 3 of his last 5, with a loss that was overturned to a no contest. Schnell’s best wins came over Louis Smolka (17-8-0), Naoki Inue (16-3-0), and Tyson Nam (20-12-1). Like his opponent, Schnell is willing to engage the fight just about anywhere, using a technical boxing style on the feet and favoring wrestling in grappling exchanges. Like most flyweights, Schnell has fast hands but has decent power for the weight class as well, often setting up his grappling with his striking and vice versa. Schnell is excellent at capitalizing on his opponents' mistakes, and will regularly grab chokes when defending takedowns. Of his 8 career submission wins, 6 of them are chokes, all of which being either a guillotine or triangle. Training at Fortis MMA, Schnell has a black belt in karate, so despite largely boxing when on the feet, he definitely has a kicking game to back up his hands. Schnell seems to be at his most vulnerable in the first round, with 3 first-round KO losses in his UFC career, but also has a handful of first-round wins on his record, so he’s pretty unpredictable in the opening round. Royval is a decent favorite in this one at -260, with Schnell the underdog at +210. I’m not surprised by these odds; despite having a shorter tenure in the UFC, Royval has faced much tougher competition, as well as having better wins on his record. I think Royval has a slight edge in the grappling, but considering they both have dangerous submission games, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one play out on the feet. I’ll take Royval by finish and cautiously pick up under 2.5 rounds. Both men tend to push the pace, so I anticipate a finish, but both are pretty tough, so it’s a bit riskier than the Royval pick.
Picks: Royval by KO/TKO or Sub., Under 2.5 rounds#11 (BW) Macy Chiasson vs. #15 (BW) Norma Dumont
Women’s Featherweight Bout
Macy Chiasson: 8-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Norma Dumont: 7-1-0, 0 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
A rare women’s featherweight fight, this is an exciting matchup of well-rounded fighters. Chiasson has won 3 of her last 5 bouts, with her best wins coming over Gina Mazany (7-6-0), Shanna Young (9-5-0), and Pannie Kianzad (17-6-0). Chiasson doesn’t have the fastest hands but more than makes up for that with volume, often blitzing forward throwing big combinations. Chiasson utilizes her length well, mixing in a good amount of body kicks with her punches, particularly front kicks. She also possesses solid clinch striking, landing elbows and knees to the body, as well as a decent ability to control her opponent in the clinch. Training at Fortis MMA, Chiasson was the winner of the 28th season of the Ultimate Fighter, winning via finish in both the semifinal and final rounds of the tournament. Chiasson favors the striking but has decent wrestling to back up her hands and can land considerable damage when on top. She’s landed at least one takedown in her last 3 fights, so she is willing to take the fight to the ground if she’s not winning the striking battle. Dumont comes into this with wins in 4 of her last 5 fights, with her 3 UFC victories coming over Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-5-0), Felicia Spencer (9-3-0), and Aspen Ladd (9-3-0). Dumont has had a solid output in her UFC career, averaging 75 significant strikes in her last 3 fights, and proved her cardio in a 5 round unanimous decision win over Aspen Ladd. Despite having no knockouts on her record, Dumont has sound, technical boxing as well as good power and speed in both her hands and kicks. Dumont seems to want to counterstrike a lot, often waiting for her opponent to put something out there before letting her hands go. Dumont averages just above 1 takedown a fight and has a brown belt in BJJ, so she’s capable of landing good ground and pound as well as grab submissions. Training at Syndicate MMA, Dumont has a slightly unusual background, with a black belt in Sanda, also known as Chinese kickboxing, with the word Sanda directly translating to “free fighting.” “The Immortal” (no, not Matt Brown) is very well-rounded, seemingly comfortable wherever the fight goes, and will usually mix it up pretty well between striking and grappling. Dumont is the favorite at -220, making Chiasson the underdog at +180. Dumont should definitely win this fight, as not only does she have better quality wins on her record, but she seems to be much faster and more technical on the feet and the ground. -220 is a bit high, but as much as I don’t like it I feel very risky expecting a finish as she hasn’t had a finish since 2017. I’ll take Dumont moneyline as well as over 2.5 rounds, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Dumont puts Chiasson away.
Picks: Dumont -220, Over 2.5 roundsFrancisco Trinaldo vs. Danny Roberts
Welterweight Bout
Francisco Trinaldo: 27-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Danny Roberts: 18-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
An excellent matchup of two tenured UFC fighters, this fight should be fireworks. Trinaldo has found victory in 4 of his last 5 outings and has spent a decade in the UFC, with his best wins being over John Makdessi (18-7-0), Bobby Green (29-13-1), and Paul Felder (17-6-0). Trinaldo has never lost consecutive fights in his entire UFC career and is still winning fights at the ripe age of 43. Trinaldo is obviously very experienced, so there are not a whole lot of situations you can put him in he hasn’t been in before, and he’s never been knocked out in his entire career. With a kickboxing record of 12-1, Trinaldo is a great striker with solid power in his hands and kicks, as well as a well-tested chin and great fight IQ, always knowing when to level change or clinch. I think one of Trinaldo’s best qualities is the ability to survive in deep waters, doing a great job to work out of bad spots, often surviving submission attempts or getting knocked down. Training with Constrictor Team, Trinaldo has gone 3 rounds plenty of times and still has good cardio in the 16th year of his extensive career. “Massaranduba” averages almost exactly 1 takedown per fight and has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as smothering top control and devastating ground and pound. Roberts has won 3 out of his last 5 fights, with his most impressive wins being over Ramazan Emeev (20-5-0), Zelim Imadaev (8-3-0), and Nathan Coy (15-7-0). While not quite as experienced as his opponent, Roberts has been in the UFC since 2015, so he’s by no means a newcomer. With a background in boxing, Roberts has an aggressive, technical style on the feet, with definite knockout power in his hands and a decent arsenal of kicks. One of his best qualities is his movement, Roberts has good footwork and does an excellent job of circling and moving to stay out of the clinch and in the middle of the cage. Roberts does have some decent wrestling, landing a takedown in both of his last two wins, but seems to only pursue grappling when he’s struggling on the feet. With a takedown defense percentage of 56%, “Hot Chocolate” does a good job of keeping the fight where he’s most comfortable. Training at Sanford MMA, he has paid for his aggressive style in the past, with 3 KO losses in the UFC, often getting wild and finding himself in brawls. This fight is currently a pick em’, with both fighters sitting at -110. I think Trinaldo’s experience, as well as his grappling advantage, will make all the difference in this fight. Trinaldo faced a similar opponent in Jai Herbert (11-4-0), and despite struggling a bit early and suffering a knockdown, Trinaldo managed to secure a third-round TKO. I'm going to take Trinaldo moneyline here and under 2.5 rounds, I think Robert’s wildness will be his downfall and could lead to a finish for Trinaldo.
Picks: Trinaldo -110, Under 2.5 roundsRandy Brown vs. Khaos Williams
Welterweight Bout
Randy Brown: 14-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Khaos Williams: 13-2-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
An excellent bout between two powerful strikers, the judges shouldn’t be involved in this one. Brown has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with wins over Jared Gooden (20-7-0), Alex Oliveira (22-12-1), and Bryan Barberena (17-8-0). Brown is a tall welterweight at 6’3 and makes great use of it, throwing combinations at range, often putting body kicks at the end of his punches. Brown has a boxing background and it shows, he can throw 4 or 5 punch combinations without getting wild and with solid accuracy, but also has dangerous kicks. Despite only having two KO’s in his 6 year UFC tenure, Brown has proven he has knockout power on multiple occasions, and can also land serious damage in the clinch. Averaging just below a takedown a fight, Brown will mix in grappling with his slick striking, and does a great job of using his length in the clinch to control his opponent and take them to the mat. If the fight does go to the ground, Brown has a good submission game and some great chokes, with 4 of his 5 career submissions coming via some kind of choke. Training at Kings MMA, Brown’s willingness to exchange on the feet has hurt him before, having been knocked out twice in the UFC, and has also struggled defending leg kicks, and is at his best when he can use his length at range. Williams has similarly won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with wins over Miguel Baeza (10-3-0), Matthew Semelsberger (10-3-0), and Abdul Razak Alhassan (11-5-0). Williams, like his opponent, is a lengthy striker, but is much more boxing based, using the devastating power in his hands to get the job done. His first two UFC fights combined lasted less than a minute, so it’s safe to say he’s at his most dangerous in the first round. Williams loves to blitz forward throwing wild hooks, trying to put his opponent away fast as possible, and averages 5 significant strikes landed per minute. Training at Murcielago MMA, Williams is yet to attempt a takedown in his UFC career, very obviously favoring stand up exchanges. “The Ox Fighter” throws everything with knockout intentions, rarely throwing singular shots and usually moving forward when punching. He doesn’t have the most extensive kicking game, but will mix in the occasional body or leg kick when in open space. This is yet another pick em’ fight, putting Brown at -105 and Williams at -115. Under 2.5 rounds is by far the safest pick here, both guys have big power and like to push the pace, but picking a winner is considerably harder. Williams certainly has the power to put Brown away, but Brown is a much more well rounded fighter. If Brown mixes in some grappling I really think he should win this fight, so I’m going to take Brown moneyline.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Brown -105Main Card
Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon
Lightweight Bout
Donald Cerrone: 36-16-0, 10 KO/TKO, 17 Sub.
Joe Lauzon: 28-16-0, 9 KO/TKO, 17 Sub.
This fight sees a matchup of two extremely experienced and tenured UFC fighters, and could possibly be both of their last fights, so I expect plenty of action. Cerrone has lost 4 of his last 5 fights with one no contest, but has wins over former UFC lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez (30-8-0), another former UFC lightweight champion in Benson Henderson (29-11-0), and current #12 featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0). One of the most respected fighters in the entire sport, Cerrone has been in the UFC since 2011 and has been a fan favorite his entire career. Cerrone currently is tied for the most UFC wins (23), has the second most UFC finishes (16), and the third most bouts in UFC history (37). With a background in Muay Thai, Cerrone has fast hands and powerful kicks, and is excellent at mixing kicks into combinations. Training at the BMF Ranch, “Cowboy” has a black belt in BJJ and an excellent submission game, dangerous from on top as well as on his back. He’s willing to engage the fight just about anywhere, and regardless of his recent skid is always up for a good scrap. Experience alone makes Cerrone a very dangerous fighter, but his well-roundedness is definitely his biggest asset, as there’s practically no position you’ll find him uncomfortable in. Lauzon has won 2 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over former Pride FC lightweight champion Takanori Gomi (36-15-0), inaugural UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver (27-19-1), and current #11 welterweight Michael Chiesa (18-6-0). Lauzon has spent 15 years in the UFC, and like his opponent is one of the most well liked and respected fighters on the roster. Lauzon was a contestant on season 5 of the Ultimate Fighter, famously entering the season fresh off a KO win over one of that seasons coaches, Jens Pulver. Although he’s coming off a 3 year lay off, Lauzon showed in his last fight against Jonathan Pearce (12-4-0) that he hasn’t lost any of his power, battering his opponent in the first round to find a KO victory. Training at Lauzon MMA (who would’ve thought), he uses a technical boxing style on the feet, not moving around too much and mostly using his hands. Lauzon is an excellent grappler, with six submission of the night honors to his name (the most in UFC history), and is excellent with both joint locks and chokes. Like his opponent, Lauzon is comfortable wherever the fight goes, both from his skill and his wealth of experience. Cerrone is a decent favorite here at -180, with Lauzon the underdog at +155. Once again the under is the safest pick here at under 2.5 rounds, both men have something to prove in this fight and I imagine they’ll be pushing the pace. Cerrone is a bit steep at -180, although Lauzon hasn’t fought in 3 years Cerrone has really hit a rough patch in his late career, but I can’t pick against him. I’ll admit my bias here, but I have to take Cowboy by finish in this one.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Cerrone by KO/TKO or Sub.Mauricio Hua vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Light Heavyweight Bout
Mauricio Hua: 27-12-1, 21 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Ovince Saint Preux: 25-16-0, 13 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Yet another matchup of two well respected and long tenured fighters, this is a rematch of a 2014 bout that Saint Preux won via first round KO. Hua comes into this bout with wins in 2 of his last 5 fights with one draw, and has wins over former UFC light heavyweight champions Chuck Liddell (21-9-0), Lyoto Machida (26-11-0) and Forrest Griffin (19-7-0). Hua himself is both a former UFC light heavyweight champion as well as the Pride middleweight Grand Prix in 2005. Better known as “Shogun,” Hua has long been one of the most respected strikers in the sport, with a plethora of knockouts on his record and very well rounded striking. The best way to describe Shogun’s striking is he’s patient until he’s not, he’ll often plod forward slowly before throwing powerful combinations or devastating kicks. While not quite as wild as he was earlier in his career, Shogun will occasionally let it fly and mix in some flashy kicks, and still has good power in his hands. Training at Kings MMA, Hua won’t often initiate grappling sequences, but does possess a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and is excellent in the clinch. As I’ve said with other veterans on this card, there’s very few positions you can put him in that he hasn’t been in before, so Shogun is comfortable wherever the fight ends up although he definitely prefers to keep it on the feet. Saint Preux has also won just 2 of his last 5 fights, and has wins over current #11 light heavyweight Nikita Krylov (27-9-0), Yushin Okami (36-14-0), and rightful Bellator light heavyweight champion Corey Anderson (17-5-0). On the feet, Saint Preux has a very upright, slow style, throwing a lot of shots one at a time but with plenty of power behind them. Saint Preux has become well known for his use of the Von Flue choke, using it to find victory 3 times in the UFC. Averaging just over a takedown per fight, “OSP” is seemingly at his most dangerous on top, landing damaging ground and pound and pursuing submissions. Saint Preux is very patient, always looking for openings to land a knockout blow or a takedown, very rarely rushing forward or acting desperately, averaging just 2.65 significant strikes landed per minute. Training at Knoxville MMA, “OSP” does his best work on the feet when he takes the middle of the cage, patiently counterstriking or looking for a chance to clinch up. Saint Preux is a surprisingly large favorite in this one at -240, with Hua at +200. I imagine Shogun announcing this will be his second to last fight has some bearing on these odds, as Saint Preux has not looked great in his recent bouts, losing his last two fights by second round KO. Even more surprising to me, the over/under is 1.5 rounds, and I think the over could be a pretty easy pickup. I’m going to cautiously pick Shogun here, he may not be the same figher he was was but neither is Saint Preux, and I think Hua’s aggressiveness on the feet as well as grappling experience will make a big difference in this fight.
Picks: Over 1.5 rounds, Hua +200#5 Michael Chandler vs. #7 Tony Ferguson
Lightweight Bout
Michael Chandler: 22-7-0, 10 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Tony Ferguson: 26-6-0, 12 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
This matchup features two of the most exciting fighters in the sport, and has big implications for the lightweight division. Ferguson has won 2 of his last 5 fights, and has wins over former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (24-12-0), current #6 lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (31-13-0), and current #12 featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0). Ferguson entered the UFC when he won season 13 of the Ultimate Fighter, and after a singular loss in 2012, would embark on a 12 fight win streak spanning 6 years, culminating in an interim title win over Kevin Lee (19-7-0). “El Cucuy” is always engaging in wars, using creative striking and his nasty submission game to find victory. Ferguson is more than willing to walk through punches in order to enter the pocket, where he can land hard straight punches and devastating elbows. Ferguson uses his odd rhythm and movement to throw his opponents off, often fighting behind his jab and moving in and out to land shots. Training in his own gym, known as Snap Down City Academy, Ferguson has a solid wrestling background to back up his BJJ blackbelt, but doesn’t often pursue takedowns, averaging less than a takedown a fight. Ferguson does often find himself in grappling exchanges though, and averages over 1 submission attempt per fight, and is constantly looking for d’arce chokes. Chandler has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, and has wins over former UFC lightweight champions Benson Henderson (29-11-0) and Eddie Alvarez (30-8-0), and current Bellator lightweight champion Patricky Freire (24-10-0). Chandler is a former three time Bellator lightweight champion who entered the UFC in 2021 after a decade in Scott Coker’s promotion, so despite being a UFC newcomer, he’s by no means a rookie. Chandler is a very well rounded fighter, with good hands and excellent power for the division, but also a outstanding wrestling pedigree. Since entering the UFC Chandler has become a massive fan favorite, having outstanding fights with both of the men in the main event, Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira. Chandler uses a boxing style on the feet, largely relying on his hands to get the work done, but has some damaging power when he does throw kicks. On the ground, Chandler is a bit more likely to pursue ground and pound, but will grab a choke if the opportunity presents itself. Chandler is the biggest favorite on the main card at -360, making Ferguson a +280 underdog. There’s just too much value in Ferguson at +280 to ignore it, despite this recent 3 fight skid, I refuse to believe Tony Ferguson is washed. Maybe I’m just optimistic (and extremely biased), but I have to take Ferguson here, he has the grappling to match Chandler and he knows this could be his last fight in the promotion so he should come out like a bat out of hell. To make this even riskier, I’ll take under 1.5 rounds, I think this will be a war from the opening bell so I can’t imagine it goes all three rounds.
Picks: Ferguson +280, Under 1.5#2 Carla Esparza vs (C)Rose Namajunas
Women’s Strawweight Title Bout
Carla Esparza: 19-6-0, 4 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Rose Namajunas: 12-4-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
A championship rematch, this fight originally took place to crown the inaugural women’s strawweight champion following the 20th season of the Ultimate Fighter, which Esparza won by 3rd round submission. Esparza has won all of her last 5 fights, and has wins over current #3 strawweight Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2), #6 strawweight Yan Xiaonan (13-3-0), and #10 strawweight Michelle Waterson (18-9-0). Esparza is and has been one of the best wrestlers in the division, and it’s always her easiest path to victory. Averaging over 3 takedowns a fight, Esparza is effective everywhere, able to land takedowns in the clinch or in open space. Training at Team Oyama, when on the ground, Esparza has excellent top control and ground and pound, often controlling her opponents for entire fights. Esparza usually looks for takedowns early and avoids striking exchanges, but her constant pursuit of grappling exchanges does make her a bit more unpredictable on the feet as her opponents are always anticipating the takedown. Esparza doesn’t have crazy power in her hands, and is far more likely to put you away with volume as opposed to strength, but surprisingly only has two finishes in her UFC career. Namajunas has won 4 of her last 5 outings, and has wins over former UFC strawweight champions Jessica Andrade (23-9-0), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0), and Zhang Weili (21-3-0). Out of Namajunas’ last 6 fights, 5 of them have been for titles, so she’s definitely comfortable under the big lights. Namajunas is very well rounded, with a solid kickboxing game along with excellent BJJ. Training at 303 Training Center, she has solid cardio and a great chin for the division, Namajunas has proven her ability to go five rounds without dropping the pace, averaging just about 66 strikes a fight in her last 5 bouts, and has also shown she has finishing power with her round one finishes of Jedrzejczyk and Zhang. With a black belt in both karate and taekwondo, Namajunas has very educated feet, along with crisp boxing. Averaging just under 2 takedowns a fight, Namajunas is certainly willing to engage grappling exchanges, and has good top control to complement her excellent submission game. Namajunas is the favorite here at -220, putting Esparza as the +180 underdog. I will immediately admit my bias, Rose is my favorite female fighter, but regardless of that I definitely believe she wins this fight. Since their first meeting, Namajunas has faced better opponents than Esparza as well as picked up better wins, and I think her grappling is more than sufficient enough to counteract Esparza’s wrestling. I’ll gamble a bit here and not only take under 4.5, but also take Namajunas by KO. She should have a massive advantage on the feet and the wrestling to keep it standing, so I believe she’ll be able to put Esparza away.
Picks: Namajunas by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 roundsThis Friday, Charles Oliveira missed the championship weight of 155 pounds, and has been stripped of his lightweight title. He is unable to win or defend the title Saturday, but Justin Gaethje is still competing for the title, and will be crowned champion if he wins against Oliveira.
#1 Justin Gaethje vs. Charles Oliveira
Lightweight Title Bout
Justin Gaethje: 23-3-0, 19 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Charles Oliveira: 32-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 20 Sub.
Despite some unfortunate circumstances around this fight, this is still an excellent matchup of two of the top fighters in the world. Gaethje has won 4 of his last 5, with wins over #5 lightweight Michael Chandler (22-7-0), #7 lightweight Tony Ferguson (26-6-0) for an interim title, and Donald Cerrone (36-16-0). Gaethje has never been in a boring fight in his entire career, relentlessly moving forward to throw bombs and do as much damage as possible. While Gaethje was known for throwing caution to the wind earlier in his UFC career, he showed in his win over Tony Ferguson that he’s fully capable of being technical, putting on a boxing masterclass before getting the TKO in the 5th round. To match his KO power, Gaethje has some of the hardest leg kicks in MMA, and is a weapon he’ll go to often to slow his opponents movement down, often opening them up to big shots. Despite having a collegiate wrestling background, Gaethje hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his UFC career, but does have an excellent takedown defense percentage of 73%. “The Highlight” is dangerous at all times, regardless of how gassed or how beaten, he will always come forward to try and put away his opponent. Training with Elevation Fight Team, Gaethje is at his best in the pocket throwing massive hooks, not quite brawling as much as he used to but still constantly getting into exchanges with his opponents. Oliveira has won all 5 of his last bouts (other than his fight with the scale), with wins over #2 lightweight Dustin Poirier (28-7-0), Michael Chandler (22-7-0), and Tony Ferguson (26-6-0). I covered Oliveira’s first title defense against Poirier in my first article (find it here), where he secured an impressive upset victory via 3rd round submission. Oliveira is the most prolific submission artist in UFC history, holding the UFC record for most submissions (15), as well as the records for most UFC finishes (18) and the most post fight bonuses (18). While best known for his grappling, Oliveira has significantly improved his striking game, and has shown some solid boxing as well as knockout power. While he’s definitely willing to engage on the feet, his easiest path to victory will always be on the ground, where he can pursue any number of the submissions he has in his arsenal. Training at Chute Boxe, Oliveira is a 3rd degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and is on his 12th year in the UFC, where despite a bad string of losses in his early career he’s managed to realize his title aspirations. Oliveira is a -135 favorite here, making Gaethje the +115 underdog. I imagine the betting lines got a lot closer after all the weight cut drama, but they should have been close to begin with. Gaethje definitely has the advantage on the feet and Oliveira definitely has the advantage on the ground, so it’s a question of who’s better at their own game. I believe Oliveira’s willingness to strike and tendency to get clipped, combined with what was clearly a bad weight cut, will lead to a Gaethje KO victory. Obviously, I have to pick under 4.5 rounds, I’d be utterly shocked if this fight saw a fifth round.
Picks: Gaethje by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
We continue to roll on with this long stretch of cards, with another solid Fight Night. This week we see a very late replacement in the unranked Bobby Green stepping into face #4 ranked lightweight Islam Makhachev. Makhachev has been on an absolute tear, riding a 9 fight win streak where he’s never seen as much as a split decision. Bobby Green has finally been receiving the respect he deserves, winning his last two bouts decisively and got a lot of love from the Houston crowd after his 1st round KO of Al Iaquinta. This card has a ton of fantastic matchups, with both veterans and up-and-comers seeing action this Saturday. I cannot wait for this one, and it should be a fun card from start to finish.
Prelims
Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam
Lightweight Bout
Terrance McKinney: 11-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Fares Ziam: 12-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Ziam comes into this bout with 4 wins in his last 5, with his UFC victories coming over Luigi Vendramini (9-3-0) and Jamie Mullarkey (14-4-0). While Ziam has gone to decisions in all of his UFC fights, he rarely saw decisions for the majority of his career, only seeing a second round twice from 2014 to 2018. Ziam is a calm, patient kickboxer, constantly feinting and looking for openings to land powerful straight shots. Ziam is at his best when he takes the center of the octagon and fights at range, picking his opponent apart with a mix of kicks and punches. While kickboxing is certainly his best skill, he is capable on the ground with multiple submission wins in his career, all by choke. Training at Bulgarian Top Team, Ziam is a great defensive fighter as well, as in his UFC career he has defended 68% of takedowns and 65% of significant strikes attempted on him. Ziam is in no rush in the octagon, gladly fighting a slow fight from range and winning by any means necessary. McKinney has won 4 of his last 5 fights, tying the third fastest finish in UFC history in his promotional debut with a 7 second KO of Matt Frevola (9-3-1). Although the majority of his finishes are submissions, McKinney has won his last 4 fights via knockout all in the first round, with a combined fight time of a 1 minute and 52 seconds. He is obviously extremely dangerous early, loving to get into wild brawls throwing voluminous combos and plenty of head kicks. Training at Warrior Camp MMA, he has excellent top control and ground and pound as well, and has 4 wins by rear naked choke, so he’s seemingly comfortable whereever the fight ends up. The biggest challenge when it comes to analyzing McKinney is the shockingly low amount of time he’s spent in the cage in his recent fights, and doesn’t have a single decision win or loss on his record. That does make one thing outstandingly clear though; if McKinney is fighting, someone is probably going to sleep one way or another. Ziam is a slight favorite at -130, making McKinney the underdog at +110. With the hype behind McKinney following his debut, I’m surprised he didn’t get the edge here. These are two practically opposite fighters, one being a very composed, traditional kickboxer and one a very wild, well rounded fighter. I think if McKinney can come out and blitz Ziam he should win this fight, but Ziam does a great job of making it challenging to get into the pocket. I’ll definitely take the under 2.5 rounds, regardless of who wins McKinney is too wild for there not to be a finish, but I’m also going to take McKinney by finish as well. If he can disrupt the flow of Ziam and make it into a brawl, he should definitely take this fight.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, McKinney by KO/TKO or Sub.Rong Zhu vs. Ignacio Bahamondes
Lightweight Bout
Rong Zhu: 18-4-0, 12 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Ignacio Bahamondes: 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
A bout between two young and dangerous strikers, this fight should be fireworks. Zhu has found victory in 4 of his last 5 bouts, with one UFC win over Brandon Jenkins (15-8-0). Zhu has some very snappy strikes, with quick and powerful hands, often headhunting and blasting his opponent with straight punches. He seems to be more comfortable counter striking, allowing his opponents to get aggressive while slipping back and landing damaging shots. Training with both Enbo Fight Club and American Top Team, Zhu has excellent experience for a 21 year old fighter, and is visibly comfortable in the cage. He rarely appears uncomfortable and has never been knocked out, although 3 of his 4 losses have come by submission. He’s willing to grapple but won’t often initiate the exchanges, but does have a couple choke wins on his record and is certainly capable on the ground. Zhu has excellent cardio and is able to push a quick pace on the feet, but would much rather be in a technical striking match than a brawl in the pocket. Zhu definitely prefers to keep the fight on the feet, as he does have a decent top game as well as a good ability to get up, but does seem to accept position on the bottom sometimes. Bahamondes has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with wins over Roosevelt Roberts (10-3-0) and Edson Gomez (5-2-0), both via spectacular knockout. In his Contender Series bout with Edson Gomez, he found victory with a front kick to the chin, and in his fight with Roberts he had one of the best knockouts of the year with a beautiful spinning back kick KO in the closing seconds of the fight. Bahamondes has excellent kickboxing, constantly switching stances and throwing quick combinations with his hands, often followed up by devastating kicks. While he has some flashy knockouts, Bahamondes does a great job of remaining composed whether he’s at range or in the pocket, willing to exchange strikes anywhere. In his fight with Roberts he showed solid takedown defense and was mostly able to keep the fight where he wants it, managing range well and landing shots in the clinch when taken to the cage. Training at Valle Flow Striking, he has shown he has both the cardio and the chin to back up his striking tendencies, allowing him to get into wars and throw with volume. Bahamondes is a decent favorite in this fight at -230, making Zhu the +190 underdog. While I do think these odds are a bit too wide, I think Zhu’s willingness to engage in a technical fight will be his downfall. Bahamondes is capable of fighting at range at a slow pace, but will often turn up the heat and throw out some wild attacks, and especially with Zhu’s tendency to counterstrike, I think Bahamondes will catch him and put him away. I’m going to take Bahamondes by KO/TKO, as well as under 2.5 rounds, but Bahamondes is the safer pick.
Picks: Bahamondes by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 roundsMain Card
Armen Petrosyan vs. Gregory Rodrigues
Middleweight Bout
Armen Petrosyan: 6-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Gregory Rodrigues: 11-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
A fight between two excellent strikers, I’d be shocked if the judges get involved with this one. Petrosyan has wins in 4 of his last 5 bouts, with a win on Dana White’s Contender Series over Kaloyan Kolev (10-1-0). Petrosyan has great hands, able to throw with both speed and power as well as mix in kicks. If he’s able to find space, he’s extremely dangerous, shown in his Contender Series bout where after being clinched for a few minutes, he exploded off the fence and landed a huge combo to put his opponent away in the first round. He also demonstrated solid takedown defense in that fight, able to land some decent offense in the clinch even when his back was against the fence and got up quickly when taken down. Training at Academy MMA, Petrosyan does seem to often be defending grappling, biding his time in the clinch until he can get into space to work his combinations. “Superman” does have some powerful kicks as well, even winning a fight via body kick just a year ago. Considering Petrosyan went pro in 2018, his 7 fights is impressive, fighting 4 times in 2021 alone. Having spent most of his career on the Russian regional scene, Petrosyan is not new when it comes to facing high level opponents, despite this being his UFC debut. Rodrigues has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with his two UFC wins coming over Junyong Park (13-5-0) and Dusko Todorovic (11-2-0). “Robocop” not only has one of the best nicknames in MMA but also some absolutely devastating power in his hands, only seeing a single decision in his last 6 fights. Rodrigues fights with a very heavy handed kickboxing style, willing to engage both in the pocket and at range, as well as having some quick kicks for someone his size. Training at a great camp in Sanford MMA, Rodrigues has the power to put someone away even when gassed, shown in the absolute brawl he got into against Junyong Park. Rodrigues has great range management and movement, able to land and get back out to range unscathed. He has solid accuracy and volume to match his power, landing with 57% accuracy in UFC career. He can eat a punch as well, something he almost necessitates with his wild striking style, but 2 of his career losses have come by knockout, with the most recent coming in his Contender Series bout against Jordan Williams (9-6-0). Rodrigues is the favorite in this one at -160, with Petrosyan the underdog at +135. Although I don’t love taking under 1.5 rounds often, I certainly do in this fight, as unless Rodrigues wants to grapple I’d be shocked if this fight didn’t see a finish. It seems we’re yet to fully see the potential of Petrosyan, so it makes sense why Rodrigues is the favorite in this one. Petrosyan certainly could find the upset, but I think Rodrigues’ experience, accuracy as well as his grappling pedigree give him an edge in this one. I’ll take Rodrigues moneyline.
Picks: Under 1.5 rounds, Rodrigues -160Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez
Lightweight Bout
Arman Tsarukyan: 17-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Joel Alvarez: 19-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 16 Sub.
Yet another prospect fight, this is one I’d be shocked to see go to the judges. Tsarukyan comes into this fight with wins in 4 of his last 5 outings, with the best of those wins being two unanimous decision victories over Olivier Aubin-Mercier (13-5-0) and Davi Ramos (10-4-0), as well as a first round knockout of Christos Giagos (19-9-0). His only UFC loss is to a fighter in the main event this Saturday, Islam Makhachev, and based on the high level competition he’s been given, the UFC is clearly very high on this young fighter. He has crisp kickboxing on the feet, throwing plenty of combos ending with head kicks, doing a great job of moving in to land shots and back out to range. He will mix in some flashy spinning kicks and spinning backfists, staying calm and picking his opponent apart with quick shots and plenty of leg kicks. Training at Khabarovsk MMA as well as American Top Team, Tsarukyan has a solid wrestling background, willing to initiate grappling exchanges to land ground and pound as well as pursue submissions. All 5 of the submissions on his record were via choke, so he is certainly dangerous if he can get a hold of someone;s neck. Alvarez has also won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his last three wins all coming in the first round over Joe Duffy (16-5-0), Alexander Yakovlev (24-10-0), and Thiago Moises (15-6-0). With 16 wins by submission, it’s clear Alvarez is an excellent grappler, but at 6’3 he’s a decently tall lightweight, often giving him a length advantage on the feet allowing him to work his kickboxing. Alvarez really showed off his power against Thiago Moises, landing some brutal elbows and kicks to put him away in the first round. If the fight does hit the mat, Alvarez is even more dangerous, particularly on his back. Despite having two submission victories in the UFC, “El Fenomeno” hasn’t even attempted a takedown in a UFC fight. Outside of a single armbar, all of his submission wins have been via choke of some variation, so the fight very well could be over if he gets hold of his opponent’s neck. While Alvarez’ record may not represent it, he’s a well rounded fighter who seems comfortable in just about any position. Tsarukyan is a surprisingly big favorite here at -220, making Alvarez a +180 underdog. Considering the 8 inch height advantage Alvarez holds, it will definitely test Tsarukyan’s kickboxing. While Tsarukyan certainly has the advantage in wrestling, Alvarez can wrap up chokes so fast I don’t think that’s safe for Tsarukyan either. This is a super tough fight to call, but I will take under 2.5 rounds as I certainly expect a finish. I’ll make the risky call and take Alvarez by submission, if he can make Tsaruykan uncomfortable on the feet and attempt a takedown I wouldn’t be surprised if Alvarez could snatch his neck.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Alvarez by Sub.Ji Yeon Kim vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Ji Yeon Kim: 9-4-2, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Priscila Cachoeira: 10-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
A fight between two solid strikers, this should play out on the feet. Kim has won 2 of her last 5 bouts, with her best wins coming over Nadia Kassem (5-2-0) and Justine Kish (7-5-0). Kim certainly proved her ability to get into firefights in her last bout with Molly McCann where she absorbed 130 strikes while landing 134. Training at Syndicate MMA, “Firefist” is yet to be knocked down in her UFC career despite constantly engaging in brawls. Kim tends to stay in the pocket, willing to eat shots in order to land her combinations, but has shown an excellent chin so far in her career. Kim tends to headhunt on the feet, rarely going to the body but throwing plenty of shots to the head, staying technical but not always accurate. Kim has never attempted a takedown in her UFC career, but does have decent clinch work and top control. Kim keeps a very high pace when striking, regularly throwing more than 200 strikes a fight. Cachoeira has also won 2 of her last five outings, with knockout wins over Shana Dobson (4-5-0) and Gina Mazany (7-5-0). Like her opponent, she has proven her chin multiple times, always moving forward and trying to land the knockout blow. Cachoeira is at her best when she’s moving forward, throwing power shots and combinations and fighting in the pocket. She has proven to be dangerous early, knocking out Shana Dobson in just 40 seconds in 2020. Cachoeira has shown decent takedown defense in her career defending 65% of those attempted on her, but has never attempted a takedown in her UFC tenure. She may have been sent to the top too early, coming into the UFC undefeated and was given the current women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0) in her debut, which is reflected in her UFC record. Cachoeira has very solid power for the 125 pound division, and is dangerous if she can let her hands go. Kim is the favorite in this one at -165, with Cachoeira the underdog at +140. I’ll definitely side with the oddsmakers here, I think Kim’s chin makes a huge difference in this fight and is a great matchup for Cachoeira considering her brawling tendencies, but I expect her to pick up the win here. I’ll also take over 2.5 rounds, I don’t anticipate a finish in this fight.
Picks: Kim -165, Over 2.5 rounds. Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman
Middleweight Bout
Misha Cirkunov: 15-7-0, 4 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
Wellington Turman: 17-5-0, 4 KO/TKO. 7 Sub.
A matchup of two excellent grapplers, I expect a finish in this one. Cirkunov has won 2 out of his last 5 fights, with first round submissions over Jimmy Crute (12-3-0) and Pat Cummins (10-7-0). Training at Xtreme Couture, Cirkunov has a very odd record, with 5 of his 7 career losses coming in the first round, with only a single loss by decision in his last bout against Krzysztof Jotko (23-5-0). In fact, 16 of his 22 career fights have ended in the first round, proving he’s by far at his most dangerous early on in the fight. Cirkunov does have decent striking, certainly possessing enough power to put an opponent away, but has been KO’d 4 times in his career, all of them coming in the last 4 years, so he definitely prefers grappling. Cirkunov is very dangerous on the ground, able to wrap up submissions very quickly, seemingly before his opponent even realizes what’s taking place. Cirkunov will typically pursue some kind of choke, with 5 of his 9 submission wins coming via choke. Cirkunov very rarely sees a decision, with 13 finishes in 15 fights, and is constantly pursuing the finish whether he’s on the feet or on the ground. Turman has similarly won 2 of his last 5, with decision victories over Sam Alvey (33-17-1) and Markus Perez (12-6-0). Turman is definitely at his best when he can gain top control and work both his ground and pound and submission game, with all of his submission victories coming via choke. Turman is a great wrestler, averaging just over 2 takedowns a fight and has never been taken down in his UFC career. In both of his UFC victories he landed takedowns, so it’s seemingly essential that he can take the fight to the mat. Often times he’ll use his clinch work to get the fight to the floor, not typically shooting for takedowns out in the open. He is willing to strike though, using technical boxing and the occasional headkick. Training at Teixeira MMA & Fitness, Turman does have decent power in his hands, although is yet to finish an opponent in the UFC. He will mix in a few wild strikes like flying knees and spinning backfists, but for the most part sticks to stiff hooks and uppercuts. Cirkunov is a slight favorite at -120, with Turman the underdog at +100. I like Cirkunov in this one, I think he’s faced much higher level opponents in his career than Turman, and has higher level grappling which seems to be Turman’s preference. I’ll take Cirkunov moneyline and under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Cirkunov -120, Under 2.5 rounds#4 Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green
Lightweight Bout
Islam Makhachev: 21-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Bobby Green: 29-12-1, 9 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
One of the wildest main events I’ve ever seen in terms of ranking, this should be an entertaining fight no matter what. Islam Makhachev has won all 5 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins coming over #8 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker (21-11-0), Thiago Moises (15-6-0), and Drew Dober (23-11-0). Makhachev, like his coach and training partner Khabib Nurmagomedov, is a dominant wrestler than could submit you or ground and pound you to find a finish. Makhachev has won all of his last 3 fights by submission though, with the most recent coming in the first round, showing a great improvement in urgency. Training at AKA, Makhachev definitely prefers grappling but is capable of striking as well, throwing with 58% accuracy on the feet as well as defending 70% of shots thrown at him. Makhachev averages over 3 takedowns a fight, and makes his wrestling background very apparent, using the now-famous Dagestani style of controlling and dominating his opponent against the cage. The absolute last place you want to be against Makhachev is on the bottom, as he will relentlessly pursue the finish from the top, and can easily control an opponent for five rounds if he can’t get them out of there. Green has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, and has wins over Al Iaquinta (14-7-1), Clay Guida (37-18-0) and Josh Thomson (22-9-0). Training at Pinnacle MMA, Green is an excellent boxer, picking his opponents apart with quick combinations and damaging straights. Green is a tested veteran, going pro in 2008 and has been in the UFC since 2013, amassing 18 fights in the promotion in that 9 year span. Green is very rarely in a boring fight, always willing to go to the center of the octagon and exchange blows. He has won Performance of the Night once and Fight of the Night 3 times in his career, backing up his scrappy tendencies. Green also has solid wrestling to supplement his striking, having defended 72% of takedowns attempted on him, and possesses good top control and a decent submission game. Green lands strikes at a 51% clip and has defended 62% of strikes thrown at him, making him a rather efficient striker, able to engage in the pocket and land big shots without taking damage in return. Green does a great job of mixing up his strikes, attacking to both the head and the body and throwing the occassional kick to finish a combination. Makhachev is by far the biggest favorite on the card at -900, with Green the underdog at +600. It’s pretty tough to pick against Makhachev here, but I don’t think this fight will be a total blowout. I will take under 2.5 rounds as well, Makhachev seems to be getting quicker and quicker with his finishes so if he’s going to win I’d expect it early. I think I along with the entire MMA community is pulling for Bobby Green here, and regardless of what happens he deserves tremendous respect for taking this fight on such short notice.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Makhachev by Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
After yet another break, we’re back with the second fight night of the year. With an important middleweight fight in the main event, we’ll see the streaking Sean Strickland against the experienced Jack Hermansson. A win in this fight could put either fighter into the title conversation at 185 pounds, with both men right on the cusp of it as it is. Outside the main event, this is an excellent card and in my opinion personifies what a Fight Night should be; nothing crazy in terms of star power, just quality fights and interesting matchups. This card should have non-stop action from start to finish, and I can’t wait to see how the fights play out.
Prelims
Chidi Njokuani vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
Middleweight Bout
Chidi Njokuani: 20-7-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Marc-Andre Barriault: 13-4-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
A fight seemingly destined to play out on the feet, this is a good matchup of powerful strikers. Njokuani has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and has victories over Melvin Guillard (32-21-2), Max Griffin (18-8-0), and Andre Fialho (14-4-0). While this is his UFC debut, this is by no means his first fight in the big leagues, having fought in Bellator from 2015-2019, even headlining cards three times. Njokuani definitely prefers to keep the fight on the feet, using a patient muay thai style, throwing a variety of attacks with his lead leg. He constantly uses feints and is willing to wait for openings, rarely overextending on his shots and remains technical throughout the fight. Training at Janjira Muay Thai, Njokuani has excellent knees in the clinch, but has struggled when taken to the ground, with 3 losses by submission in his career. He is a veteran of the sport, starting his career in 2007, and has been fighting high level competition for a majority of his career. Njokuani found his way into the UFC after scoring an impressive 3rd round knockout over Brazilian prospect Mario Sousa (12-2-0) after rocking his opponent numerous times during the bout as well as showing an improvement in his offensive grappling. Barriault has won 2 of his last 5 fights with one draw, with his best win coming over Abu Azaitar (14-3-1). Barriault also tends to favor striking, but is much more of a brawler, often throwing big hooks and fighting in the pocket. “Power Bar” has solid power in both hands, and will also mix in leg kicks in his constant pursuit of a finish. When the fight hits the ground, he’s shown decent top control and throws equally as big shots as he does on the feet, proven by the complete lack of submissions on his record. Barriault has solid defensive wrestling, having a takedown defense percentage of 70%, but I don’t anticipate him using that much in this fight. Training at a great camp in Sanford MMA, he has shown solid cardio in recently, landing over 100 strikes in his last two UFC Fights. Although his cardio has looked good lately, he definitely isn’t a volume striker, often blitzing forward to throw power shots, especially with his right hand. While he can generate serious power with both hands, he does seem to be a bit obvious with his striking sometimes as he is constantly pursuing the knockout blow. Barriault is a slight favorite in this one at -120, putting Njokuani as the +100 underdog. I’m surprised Barriault is the favorite, Njokuani has considerably better experience at the highest levels of the sport, but Barriault does have a great camp which usually means a good gameplan. I’m still going to take Njokuani though, I think the technicality of his Muay Thai and his composure will be the difference here, as well his experience as a pro. Rounds are pretty tough to pick on this one, both guys are pretty tough but have found finishes recently, so I’ll take under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Njokuani +100, Under 2.5 RoundsHakeem Dawodu vs. Michael Trizano
Featherweight Bout
Hakeem Dawodu: 12-2-1, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Michael Trizano: 10-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Dawodu has found wins in 4 of his last 5 fights, with his most significant wins coming over Julio Arce (17-5-0) and Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1). Dawodu uses a very measured, kickboxing style, constantly moving in and out of range and using good head movement to avoid taking damage. He has solid power with both his hands and legs, and his attacks vary from spinning kicks to fundamental boxing. Although he can throw some crazy strikes, he does a good job of staying composed and patiently counter striking, often capitalizing on his opponents mistakes to land big shots to the head and body. He has struggled with takedown defense in the past, getting taken down 9 times in his last fight by top prospect Movsar Evloev (15-0-0). Despite this, he did last all three rounds, so he has been in deep waters and made it out, proving the quality of both his cardio and toughness. Training at Champion’s Creed MMA, Dawodu hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his UFC career, so it’s pretty obvious where he’s most comfortable. He’s at his best when he takes the middle of the octagon, forcing his opponent to the outside as well as on their backfoot where they’re more likely to make mistakes, and he can really damage them with his counter punching. Trizano comes into this fight having won 4 of his last 5, with notable wins over Ludovit Klein (17-4-0) and Luis Pena (9-3-0), as well as having won the 27th season of The Ultimate Fighter. On the feet, Trizano has a patient, boxing style, fighting behind his jab and finding opportunities to land powerful hooks or big combinations. Trizano does a good job of managing distance, coming into the pocket to land shots and quickly getting back out to range. Training at Team Tiger Schulman, Trizano does mix in some kicks with his boxing, throwing mostly to the body and legs. “The Lone Wolf” has also shown some solid cardio, keeping the same pace and carrying the same power over a full three rounds. Like his opponent, he has struggled a bit with takedown defense, having been taken down in all of his UFC fights, but outside of his loss to Grant Dawson (17-1-1) he went on to outstrike all his UFC opponents, so he is able to work out of bad ground situations. With two submissions on his record, he certainly has some BJJ ability, but definitely prefers to keep the fight the feet where he can put his boxing to work. Dawodu is the favorite at -170, with Trizano the underdog at +145. I feel pretty safe taking over 2.5 rounds, both guys have seen decisions in 4 of there last 5 outings, but taking a winner is a bit harder. They both are solid technical strikers, so it’s going to come down to who’s got the better technique. I think Dawodu’s counter punching will make the difference in this one, Trizano will want to be coming forward and throwing big shots and I think Dawodu has the head movement and footwork to counter that. I’ll take Dawodu moneyline.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Dawodu -170Miles Johns vs. John Castaneda
Bantamweight Bout
Miles Johns: 12-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
John Castaneda: 18-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
One of multiple striker vs striker matchups on the night, this is another fight that should be fireworks. Johns has won 4 of his last 5 outings, with his most notable victories coming over Adrian Yanez (15-3-0), Anderson Dos Santos (21-9-0), and Kevin Natividad (9-3-0). Johns has serious power in both hands, but does a good job of staying technical with his boxing and utilizes great footwork. Johns will mix up his strikes regularly, switching between attacks to the head and body as well as throwing powerful leg kicks. He tends to stay patient and use plenty of feints to find openings, then proceed to throw precise and powerful shots, usually in combinations. Johns has shown he can grapple, landing three takedowns in his Contender Series fight, but recently has been sticking to his striking, not attempting a takedown in his last three fights. He also has an outstanding takedown defense percentage, sitting at 92% in his UFC tenure. Training at Fortis MMA, Johns has shown that he can carry his power across three rounds, with his last two victories being third round knockouts. Castaneda has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his best wins coming over Eddie Wineland (24-15-1) and Marcelo Rojo (16-8-0). Castaneda, like his opponent, is a patient power striker who loves throwing bombs and fighting in the pocket. Castaneda carries good power in his hands and will also mix in a decent variety of kicks to the legs, head, and body, but would definitely rather fight in a phone booth than at range. Training at The Academy (that’s actually what it’s called), “Sexy Mexi” is capable of grappling if the fight hits the mat, and will grab a choke if given the chance, evident in the 5 submission wins on his record. He has shown an ability to eat a shot as well as weather a storm, shown in his decision loss to Nathaniel Wood (17-5-0). Johns is the favorite in this fight at -190, making Castaneda the +160 underdog. I will admit my bias as a fan of Miles Johns, but I think he’s the favorite for a reason in this fight. His striking is a lot more technical than Castaneda, has more UFC experience, and I think he has the edge in power. I’m going to take Miles Johns moneyline, as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Johns -190, Under 2.5 roundsMain Card
I didn’t cover the Tresean Gore vs. Bryan Battle fight, as for whatever reason the 12th episode of The Ultimate Fighter (which is the semifinals of the show) isn’t on ESPN+ or UFC Fight Pass, so I could only find a single fight of Tresean Gore’s. I can’t really properly research a fighter if I can’t see their fights, and considering he has only 3 pro fights in his career, using just statistics for reference doesn’t paint a very clear picture of how he fights.
Julian Erosa vs. Steven Peterson
Featherweight Bout
Julian Erosa: 26-10-0, 11 KO/TKO, 12 Sub
Steven Peterson: 19-9-0, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
A bout between two well rounded and experienced fighters, there should be plenty of action in this one. Erosa has won 4 of his last five fights, with impressive wins over Charles Jourdain (12-4-1), Nate Landwehr (15-4-0), and Sean Woodson (9-1-0). Erosa is a finisher in every way, only going to decision once in 9 UFC fights. One of multiple TUF alums on this card, Erosa is extremely well rounded, able to knock you out on the feet or tap you on the mat. “Juicy J” has a very upright boxing style, and is much more of a volume striker than a power striker. He keeps it very loose on the feet, often putting his hands down and using head movement to avoid damage then responding with stiff, almost Wanderlei Silva type hooks. He has a very dangerous submission game, and doesn’t even need to take the fight to the floor to find submissions, beating Charles Jourdain with a standing d’arce choke in his last victory. Erosa is one of those fighters where you anticipate something crazy, whether grappling or striking, using unorthodox chokes and throwing spinning backfists and flying knees. Erosa does have the cardio to go three rounds and is dangerous at any point in the fight, having multiple first and third round finishes on his record. Steven Peterson has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins being over Chase Hooper (10-2-1), and Martin Bravo (12-3-0), with the latter victory being via one of the best finishes I’ve ever seen live, where he countered a spinning backfist with a spinning backfist and put his opponent out cold. While Peterson’s base is grappling, holding a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but also has some solid Muay Thai when on the feet. When striking, Peterson mixes it up well, throwing kicks to the legs and body and powerful combinations with his hands. Peterson is more than willing to get into dog fights, and will stand in the middle and exchange strikes as well as get into grueling grappling exchanges on the fence and on the ground. Training at Fortis MMA, “Ocho” doesn’t really seem to prefer grappling or striking over the other, willing to go wherever the fight ends up and seems comfortable in practically any position, most likely due to the wealth of experience he has in his 28 fight career. Erosa is one of the biggest favorites on the card at -310, with Peterson a +250 underdog. While I think these odds are a bit inflated, Erosa is a favorite for a reason. I think he’s just a little bit better at everything than Peterson, but I think this fight will be closer than many think, as Peterson is a very experienced and pretty tough too. Still, I’m going to take under 2.5 rounds, and Erosa by finish.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Erosa by KO/TKO or Sub.Sam Alvey vs. Brendan Allen
Middleweight Bout
Sam Alvey: 33-16-1, 19 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Brendan Allen: 17-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
An interesting matchup of a longtime veteran and a prospect on the rise, I expect a very entertaining bout. Sam Alvey has not found a victory since 2018, but lost 2 of his last five by split decision and fought to a draw. His best victories are over former UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans (20-8-1), Nate Marquardt (35-19-2), and Cezar Ferreira (14-10-0). Alvey is a classic brawler, always willing to stand and bang and leave everything he has in the cage. Alvey kind of reminds me of Forrest Griffin; he might not be the best athlete or the most technical, but he’s got more heart than just about anybody. Training at Team Quest Portland, he has a great chin, and with so many fights on his record there’s very few situations he’s uncomfortable in. He very rarely will initiate grappling exchanges but does have solid defensive wrestling, with an outstanding takedown defense percentage of 81% in the UFC. He’s gone three rounds countless times in his career, and keeps his speed and power throughout a fight, often moving forward to throw wild combinations. With 19 career knockouts, Alvey is fully capable of putting an opponent away, even if he hasn’t done it recently. He does a great job of finding openings to land damaging strikes, doing nearly all of his work with his hands. Allen has won 3 of his last five bouts, with wins over Punahele Soriano (8-1-0), Karl Roberson (9-4-0), and Kyle Daukaus (10-2-0). Allen is primarily a grappler, and is extremely dangerous when he does get the fight to the mat, with quite a few rear naked choke wins on his record and even an ankle lock. He won’t strictly pursue the submission though, using quality top control to land ground and pound and advance to better positions. Training at Sanford MMA, Allen is dangerous whether he’s on top or on his back, and is always searching for submissions regardless of what position he’s in. Allen does have good striking to back up his grappling, and has both good hands and kicks, using more of a boxing style when he is on the feet. “All In” doesn’t see the judges too often, but can go three rounds, and like his opponent is willing to leave everything he has inside of the octagon every time he fights. Allen is tied for the biggest favorite on this card at -420, with Alvey a huge +330 underdog. I absolutely love Sam Alvey, but it’s tough to pick him to win this one. I certainly think it’ll be more competitive than people think it will be, but if Allen can take it to the mat he should be able to find a submission. I’m going to take under 2.5 rounds as well as Allen by submission.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Allen by Sub.Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlton Harris
Welterweight Bout
Shavkat Rakhmonov: 14-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Carlston Harris: 17-4-0, 5 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Yet another matchup of up-and-coming fighters in the UFC, both of these men have been finishers in their UFC tenure and I don’t expect to see the judges in this bout. Rakhmonov is currently undefeated, with two UFC wins, both by submission over Alex Oliveira (22-11-1) and Michel Prazeres (26-4-0) in Prazeres’ first loss via finish in his career. Rakhmonov on the feet is an efficient, technical striker using a boxing style, often mixing in body kicks and the occasional spinning kick. He does have knockout power, but Rakhmonov seems to be at his best on the ground, using quality wrestling and clinchwork to bring his opponents to the mat. Training at Kazakhstan Top Team, Rakhmonov has excellent top control, staying patient and active on top until he can work to a submission position. “Nomad” does a good job of setting up his grappling with his striking, often dropping his opponent then finding a submission. He’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes, but is at his best when he can clinch his opponent against the cage, find the takedown and work his grappling game from there. Harris has won all of his last 5 fights, all by finish, with his most notable wins coming over Michel Pereira (27-11-0), Wellington Turman (17-5-0), and Christian Aguilera (14-8-0). Harris has some serious power in his hands, utilizing an efficient kickboxing style, with devastating kicks to match his hands. To go along with his power, he’s got some excellent speed, both in his movement and punches, and is always looking for the finish. He has one shot knockout power on the feet, but also has some slick grappling, with some nasty chokes on his record and great takedown defense. Training at Renovocao Fight Team, Harris seems to really love the anaconda and d’arce chokes, often sprawling on a takedown and then wrapping one of these up. Like his opponent, he seems comfortable just about wherever the fight goes, but seems to get a lot of his submissions via defensive grappling, not often shooting for takedowns. Rakhmonov is the favorite at -230, with Harris the underdog at +130. I think it might just be my riskiest pick, but I like Harris by finish in this one. I think he’s better on the feet, and his tendency to find chokes from defensive positions could really be difference maker. Rakhmonov is absolutely nasty, but I really think Harris could steal this one. The rounds are a bit tougher to call, but considering neither man has seen a third round in their last 5 fights, I’ll take under 1.5 rounds.
Picks: Harris by KO/TKO or Sub., Under 1.5 roundsPunahele Soriano vs. Nick Maximov
Middleweight Bout
Punahele Soriano: 8-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Nick Maximov: 7-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
A matchup of two well rounded up-and-comers, this is bound to be a great fight. Soriano has won 4 of his last 5 fights, scoring victories over Dusko Todorovic (11-2-0), Oskar Piechota (11-3-1), and Jamie Pickett (13-6-0). Soriano has absolutely devastating power in his hands, which he’s proven with two 1st round knockouts in his 3 UFC bouts. On the feet, Soriano is at his most dangerous in the pocket, throwing massive hooks and really letting his hands go. He will occasionally mix in kicks when he does leave the pocket, mostly going to the head or body. Soriano is constantly moving forward and pressuring his opponent, keeping them moving backwards while he throws bombs. Training at the excellent Xtreme Couture, Soriano loves to headhunt on the feet, but has also shown some solid wrestling to complement his striking. In his Contender Series fight with Jamie Pickett he landed three takedowns, and did show an ability to grapple, but didn’t land much offense when on top. Maximov is currently undefeated, winning a unanimous decision in his UFC debut against Cody Brundage (6-2-0). Training at the Nick Diaz Academy, he fights exactly like how you would expect someone trained by Nick Diaz would; good boxing, great BJJ. On the feet he has solid, technical boxing, and has decent power in his hands. Maximov is certainly willing to engage on the feet, but seems most comfortable on the ground, landing 4 takedowns and holding nearly 10 minutes of control time in his fight with Cody Brundage. He’ll pursue submissions as well as land ground and pound, and does a great job of controlling his opponent and really sticking to them. He has good wrestling to complement his jiu-jitsu, able to land takedowns in the open and the clinch, as well of doing a good job defending takedowns. Maximov will regularly pursue the finish on the ground whether it’s via strikes or submissions, often setting up one with the other. He also exhibited quality cardio in his one UFC fight, being able to control his opponent and stay active for the majority of it. Soriano is a decent favorite at -190, with Maximov the underdog at +160. I’m honestly a little surprised Soriano is such a big favorite, he does have serious power but could find himself in some serious trouble if taken down. At the same time, we haven’t seen Maximov get taken into deep waters, having dominated and controlled both of his opponents in his Contender Series fight and UFC debut. This is a super tough fight to pick a winner in, but I do think this fight goes over 1.5 rounds. This is a classic dilemma of one guy being the better grappler but the other the better striker. I don’t feel super confident picking either guy, but if I had to pick a winner, I’ll cautiously take Soriano.
Picks: Over 1.5 rounds, Soriano -190#6 Jack Hermansson vs. #7 Sean Strickland
Middleweight Bout
Jack Hermansson: 22-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Sean Strickland: 24-3-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
This is an excellent matchup in terms of styles, and a very important fight for two guys who have seemingly been on the cusp of the top 5 for a lot of their UFC tenure. Jack Hermansson has won 3 of his last 5, those being victories over Edmen Shahbazyan (11-3-0), #10 ranked middleweight Kelvin Gastellum (17-8-0), and Jacare Souza (26-10-0). Training at Frontline Academy, Hermansson is a well rounded fighter, willing to engage exchanges both on the feet and on the ground. While he does have solid striking, it seems Hermansson prefers to take the fight to the mat, averaging about two takedowns a fight. When on the ground, he’s a bit more likely to pursue ground and pound as opposed to the submission, but will grab a choke when given the chance. When striking, Hermansson uses a boxing style, often throwing a lot of leg and body kicks before letting his hands go. Hermansson is at his most dangerous early in a fight, having 5 first round finishes in the UFC, 2 being knockouts with 3 submissions. “The Joker” has shown some decent power in his hands and can certainly put someone away, but really seems his most comfortable in grappling situations, landing at least one takedown in all but one of his last 8 fights. Sean Strickland has won all of his last 5 fights, with impressive wins over #9 ranked middleweight Uriah Hall (18-10-0), Krzysztof Jotko (23-5-0), and Brendan Allen (17-5-0). Strickland has become well known for his striking, as well for his tendency to talk trash throughout fights. Being on a 5 fight win streak, his trash talk usually serves to frustrate his opponents while they’re losing to Strickland. While “Tarzan” definitely prefers to keep the fight standing, he will often mix some grappling in with his striking, averaging just over 1 takedown per fight. He also has shown pretty solid takedown defense in his career, defending 82% of takedowns attempted on him, and is something that could play a big role in this fight. Strickland rarely pursues the submission, much preferring to get the work done with his powerful hands. On the feet, Strickland uses a very upright boxing style, constantly moving forward and throwing combinations. While he certainly pursues the knockout, he doesn’t overextend himself in doing this, usually remaining technical and composed even in fire fights. Training at Millenia MMA, Strickland seems almost Terminator-like with his constant forward movement, trying to keep his opponent on the backfoot as much as possible to open up opportunities to land combinations, especially his one-two. Strickland is the favorite in this one at -220, making Hermansson the +180 underdog. I think what decides this fight is Strickland’s defensive wrestling as he hasn’t been taken down since 2017, with the last person to take him down being UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. If Strickland can keep it on the feet, I think he has better striking than Hermansson and should be able to get the job done. I’m taking Strickland by knockout, and under 4.5 rounds, with the rounds definitely being the safer pick.
Picks: Under 4.5 rounds, Strickland by KO/TKO
UFC 270 Preview
The first pay-per view card of the year has arrived, and it is absolutely loaded. There’s two fights on this card, though, that most people will be watching for, being the main and co-main events. In the co-main, flyweight champion Brandon Moreno looks to defend his belt in a trilogy fight with rival Deiveson Figueiredo. In the main event, what’s probably the most hyped fight since the Brock Lesnar era, Francis Ngannou will defend his strap against the red hot Ciryl Gane. From top to bottom, this card is stacked with excellent fights, and should be a great way to start the new year.
This is a particularly short article due to multiple changes to the card on the Thursday and Friday, resulting in both the prelims and main card completely changing. Due to how late notice these changes were, there wasn’t enough time to do the research required for the fights replacing the ones removed.
Prelims
This preview was written when this fight was first scheduled, the Lewis vs. Daukaus Fight Night. Very little time has passed, and the matchup is the exact same, so essentially nothing has changed since this was written. You can check out the original article here: Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry
Bantamweight Bout
Raoni Barcelos: 16-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Victor Henry: 21-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
A fight I’m surprised hasn’t garnered more attention, this is the 6th fight of the night, and a good one at that. Both fighters have a wealth of experience beyond the UFC, both having challenged for titles in other promotions. Raoni Barcelos comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, taking his first loss in 6 years to fellow prospect Timur Valiev (18-2-0) in June 2020. Barcelos, a former RFA Bantamweight Champion, has notable victories over Said Nurmagomedov (14-2-0) and Bobby Moffett (14-6-0). Training out of Rizzo RVT, Barcelos is dangerous wherever the fight goes. He has great striking, using a Muay Thai style and often throws devastating hooks, uppercuts, and leg kicks. He also is an excellent grappler, with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as some quality wrestling mixed in. Barcelos is a high energy, high pressure fighter that is constantly moving forward, looking to either land big strikes or a takedown whenever the opportunity presents itself. Victor Henry comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, with this being his UFC debut. His most notable victory being over top UFC prospect Kyler Phillips (9-2-0), this is by no way Henry’s introduction to the big leagues of MMA. Henry has fought in King of the Cage, BAMMA, Pancrase, Deep, and Rizin, even fighting for a title in a losing effort against Shintaro Ishiwatari (26-9-4) in Pancrase. Henry, training out of UWF-USA, seems to be a pretty pure MMA fighter, slightly favoring ground exchanges, but still very willing to go at it on the feet. Henry has good hands and likes to throw a lot of head and low kicks, as well as an excellent ability to throw strikes, particularly knees, in the clinch. He also seems more likely to get a takedown from the clinch than out in the open, utilizing a lot of bodylocks and trips. Like Barcelos, he’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes. Barcelos is a huge favorite at -490, with Henry the underdog at +370. Barcelos somehow managed to become an even bigger favorite than when this fight was originally scheduled. While Henry has plenty of experience, I think Barcelos is just a bit better in every aspect of the fight, with more technical striking and seemingly higher level grappling, especially in the BJJ department. Despite Barcelos seeing decisions in his last three fights, I like the under 2.5, as well As Barcelos by KO/TKO. I see him really putting on a show in this fight, whether its on the ground or the feet, and picking up the victory by finish.
Picks: Barcelos by KO/TKO, Under 2.5Main Card
Michael Morales vs. Trevin Giles
Welterweight Bout
Michael Morales: 12-0-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Trevin Giles: 14-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
The second fight of the prelims, this is a great matchup of up-and-comers. Michael Morales comes into this fight undefeated, although with limited big stage experience, mostly fighting in regional promotions in South America. His last fight was a victory on Dana White’s Contender Series over Nikolay Veretennikov (9-4-0), which he won by an impressive unanimous decision. Morales is known for his technical kickboxing on his feet, often staying patient and fighting behind his jab until finding opportunities to let his hands go. Morales is a good combo striker, and does a great job setting things up with his jab, throwing a lot of one-two combos or blitzing forward to throw long, devastating hooks and straights. Training at Xtreme Fitness Machala, Morales is also a solid grappler, focusing on the ground and pound when the fight hits the mat. He does seem to struggle a little bit with wrestling out in the open, as in his Contender Series bout he failed to finish on two single leg takedown attempts. He did have great success in the clinch though, with three powerful bodylock slams in which he practically ragdolled his opponent. He has a great sense of urgency when fighting, clearly knowing when to go in for the kill, and is constantly looking for the finish but not gassin himself out in doing so. Trevin Giles has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and has wins over James Krause (28-9-0), Ryan Spann (19-7-0), and Brendan Allen (17-5-0). Giles is an aggressive boxer on the feet, often waiting to find an angle before exploding forward with huge, hook-heavy combinations. Giles has good power in both hands, and seemingly never puts punches out there to touch his opponent, throwing every punch with fight-ending intentions. He is also a talented grappler, with great top control and an ability to go into deep waters on the bottom, proven by him surviving James Krause on his back for practically half a round. He will usually use his ground and pound, but will also pursue chokes on the ground to finish his opponent. Training at W4R Training Center, Like his opponent, Giles relentlessly pursues the finish, and is willing to stay standing or go to the ground to find it. This has sometimes been a problem for him, gassing himself out and getting sloppy with his striking. Outside of his most recent loss to hot prospect Dricus Du Plessis (16-2-0), he has only lost to veterans in Gerald Meerschaert (34-14-0) and Zak Cummings (24-7-0). Michael Morales is a very slight favorite at -120, with Giles the underdog at -110. The odds on this fight are so tight for a reason; we really have no idea what to expect out of Morales. This is his first fight on a big stage, and against an experienced opponent as well. Giles tendency to get sloppy with his boxing could play to Morales’ favor with his more technical kickboxing, but at the same time Morales could find himself in serious trouble if Giles gets on top of him. I’ll definitely take under 2.5 rounds, both guys always go for the finish so the only way I see this fight going the distance is if both guys gas out. I will very cautiously pick Morales to win, I think if he can stay technical on the feet he could pick Giles apart, he just really can’t get taken down.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Morales -120Cody Stamann vs. Said Nurmagomedov
Bantamweight Bout
Cody Stamann: 19-4-1, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Said Nurmagomedov: 14-2-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
If you see the name Nurmagomedov, it’s practically guaranteed to be an entertaining fight. Said Nurmagomedov has won 4 of his last 5, with his most notable victory coming over Ricardo Ramos (15-4-0). While his last name is practically synonymous with dominant wrestling, he actually favors the stand up, where he utilizes flashy kickboxing to get the job done. Training at Akhmat Fight Team, Nurmagomedov has solid power in both his hands and kicks, and loves to throw out wild attacks like flying double knees and spinning kicks. He is Dagastani, so he does of course possess grappling abilities, showing solid wrestling and top control. He is most dangerous on the feet at range, where he can utilize his kicking game and speed to damage his opponents. While some of his more wild attacks may appear to be for show, he does a lot of damage with his spinning attacks, especially to the body. Thanks to his wrestling capabilities, he has good takedown defense and does a good job of keeping the fight where he wants it, when he wants it. Cody Stamann has won 2 of his last 5 with one draw, with his best victories coming over Brian Caraway (21-10-0) and Brian Kelleher 24-12-0). Training at Michigan Top Team, Stamann is best known as a wrestler but does have decent striking, using a boxing style on the feet and often fighting in the pocket and throwing solid punch combinations. He does have the ability to mix in kicks, often throwing front kicks to the head and body. Unsurprisingly for a wrestler, Stamann has solid takedowns and top control, and will use his ground and pound more often than pursuing submissions. Stamann has struggled when given high level competition, with losses against #6 ranked bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili (14-4-0) and current bantamweight “champion” Aljamain Sterling (20-3-0). He has shown an ability to take a shot, having never been knocked out in his entire career and only being finished once by submission. Nurmagomedov is the favorite here at -190, with Stamann the underdog at +160. While Stamann is certainly tough, I think Nurmagomedov’s wrestling background will allow him to keep the fight standing, where he is much more skilled and comfortable than his opponent. He should be able to use his kickboxing to pick off Stamann at range. I’ll take Nurmagomedov moneyline, as well as over 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Nurmagomedov -190, Under 2.5 roundsMichel Pereira vs. Andre Fialho
Welterweight Bout
Michel Pereira: 26-11-0, 10 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Andre Fialho: 14-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Honestly, it almost doesn’t even matter who Michel Pereira fights, because you’re guaranteed to see something weird happen. Michel Pereira comes into this bout having won 3 of his last 5, with victories over Niko Price (15-5-0), Khaos Williams (13-2-0) and Danny Roberts (18-5-0). Pereira is certainly one of the most unique fighters in the UFC, known for his wild antics within the cage including but not limited to backflips, open hand slaps, backflipping onto his opponent, and a lot of taunting. Training with Scorpion Fighting System, beyond all the silliness, Pereira does possess legitimate knockout power in his hands, has powerful kicks, and some flashy kickboxing skills. He also has a large amount of experience outside the UFC, fighting all over Brazil and Asia and seemingly as often as possible, having fought 9 times in 2013 alone, along with 7 times in 2018. His unorthodox style has proved a problem to his opponents, as it’s virtually impossible to know what he’ll throw next, and he throws everything with power. When I watched some of his earlier UFC fights (particularly his loss to Tristan Connelly), it seemed his strange antics were a distraction and waste of energy for him, causing him to gas out and make a lot of simple mistakes. For instance, hitting Diego Sanchez (31-13-0) with an illegal knee, or gassing himself out and getting dominated on the ground against Tristan Connelly (14-7-0). This doesn’t seem to be quite as much of an issue now, as he’s found decision victories in his last two bouts and showed both improved cardio and better focus. Andre Fialho has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with his most notable victory being a knockout win over James Vick (13-6-0). Fialho on the feet is a classic brawler, going straight to the middle of the octagon to throw big right hands and powerful leg kicks. He can take a shot, usually able to recover when he takes big damage. Training at a solid camp in Sanford MMA, Fialho loves to hang in the pocket and exchange, throwing plenty of hooks and mixing in kicks with his punching combos. Fialho isn’t a particularly technical striker, but does have decent counter punching and can throw kicks at range. This is his first UFC fight, but has fought multiple times in both the PFL and Bellator. Michel Pereira is a decent favorite at -280, leaving Fialho the +230 underdog. Pereira is a favorite for a reason, Fialho is coming in on short notice, and making his UFC debut as well. I do think Fialho will make this at least somewhat competitive, but Pereira has much higher level striking and should pick up the win here. I’m taking Pereira by KO/TKO, as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Pereira by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds
Brandon Moreno vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
Flyweight Title Bout
Brandon Moreno: 19-5-2, 3 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
Deiveson Figueiredo: 20-2-1, 9 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
The first of two title fights, this is the third consecutive time we’ll see these two go to war. Brandon Moreno has won 4 of his last 5, with 1 draw against his opponent this weekend, Figueiredo. Moreno has victories over #4 ranked flyweight Brandon Royval (13-6-0), #6 ranked flyweight Kai Kara-France (23-9-0), and of course former UFC flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Training at Entram Gym, On the feet Moreno uses crisp boxing and solid combinations to put damage on his opponent, possessing more speed than power like most flyweights. He does a good job of being patient and finding openings, but also has a great chin and can eat some powerful shots. Although he’s pretty technical, he’s not afraid to engage in huge exchanges, really letting his hands go and throwing power shots. Don’t let those 11 submissions fool you, Moreno is not a grappling specialist, he’s well rounded and is comfortable wherever the fight goes. When on the mat, Moreno will use ground and pound but also chase submissions, particularly the rear naked choke which makes up 6 of his 11 submission victories. He has both good wrestling and great BJJ, being a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Moreno also posesses good takedown defense, often able to work out of the positions and show solid clinchwork. He can easily go 5 rounds, not only using his toughness but also his excellent cardio. Deiveson Figueiredo has won 3 of his last five with one draw, with wins over Joseph Benavidez twice (28-8-0) and Alex Perez (24-6-0). Figueiredo possess unusual power for a flyweight, throwing devastating hooks regularly along with powerful kicks, often to the body. This may have to do with him having a pretty large weight cut, even saying he would consider a move to bantamweight. While this does allow him superb power in his hands, it has shown a bit of an effect on his cardio, as in his two fights with Moreno he did fade as the fights went on. Like his opponent, he is also a black belt in BJJ, and often times will drop his opponent on the feet then pursue the submission. Training with Team Figueiredo, He is willing to engage in grappling scenarios, having a solid guard on the bottom and able to do significant damage from the top when not pursuing the submission. Moreno is the favorite at -190, with Figueiredo the underdog at +160. I do think Figueiredo is too big of an underdog, but at the same time, I don’t expect him to win this fight. I think Moreno figured him out in their first fight, which was very evident in Moreno’s dominant victory in their second fight. Figueiredo continues to claim he’s better prepared, but his demeanor is identical to how he acted prior to the second fight, seemingly overlooking Moreno. I’ll take Moreno moneyline, as well as over 3.5 rounds.
Picks: Moreno -190, Over 3.5 roundsFrancis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane
Heavyeweight Title Bout
Francis Ngannou: 16-3-0, 12 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Ciryl Gane: 10-0-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
This fight really needs no introduction: this is what people are watching this card to see. Francis Ngannou has won all 5 of his last bouts, scoring vicious KO wins in all five, most impressively over Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-3-0), Curtis Blaydes (15-3-0) and a championship victory over Stipe Miocic (20-4-0). Ngannou is famous for his unbelievable punching power, able to put guys to sleep with either hand and seemingly with ease. Training at the legendary Xtreme Couture, Ngannou has really reinvented himself since his title loss against Stipe Miocic, greatly improving his boxing skill as well as his patience. He used to have a tendency to come out like a madman, throwing crazy hooks and trying to get his opponent out of there as fast as possible. Now, he’s more content to be patient and stay technical, actually boxing and not just throwing bombs all the time. He also showed improvement in his grappling, particularly his wrestling. He was able to defend takedowns from then-champion Stipe Miocic, keep the fight in his comfort zone on the feet. He also has acquired a bit of a kicking game, putting just as much power into his kicks as his punches. Ciryl Gane has won all of his last 5 bouts, with wins over Alexander Volkov (34-9-0), former UFC heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos (21-9-0), and an interim heavyweight title win over Derrick Lewis (26-8-0). Gane is one of the most technical strikers we’ve ever seen in the heavyweight division, using excellent Muay Thai to damage his opponents. He’s able to throw a variety of strikes from punches, kicks, knees, elbows, and throw all of those with power. While he’s become known for his striking, he also has solid grappling, having 2 submission wins in the UFC, one of which was a heel hook. I’d say his wrestling and BJJ are pretty equal, he has solid takedowns as well as top control, able to do a lot of damage with his ground and pound or submit his opponent. He’s willing to exchange in the pocket but is also excellent at range, throwing plenty of kicks both high and low, as well as crisp combinations with his hands. He went 13-0 professionally in Muay Thai, proving that the last thing you want to do with Ciryl Gane is have a kickboxing match. Surprisingly, Gane is the favorite here at -150, putting the champion Ngannou as the underdog at +125. This may be the hardest fight I’ve ever tried to predict: Gane is more technically sound than Ngannou, but Ngannou has the ultimate equalizer in his unbelievable power. I honestly don’t even know how to pick the rounds, this could easily go 1 round or 5 depending on who’s leading the exchanges. At this point, I think my only choice is to go with my gut and take Ngannou. Having him as a decent size underdog seems ridiculous to me. I’ll take over 2.5 rounds as well, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it was a quick one. If I’m being honest, I think it might be a better idea to just watch this one and not put any money on it, this is such a toss up.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Ngannou +125
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Chikadze
At long last, the UFC is back with it’s first card of 2022. While this card may lack star power, it certainly doesn’t lack in quality fights. This card has a solid variety of both veterans and up-and-comers, as well as an excellent matchup in its main event. Giga Chikadze has been on an asbolute tear in the featherweight division as of late, and he will meet an absolute brick wall in Calvin Kattar. I expect nothing less than fireworks in this main event, and to see some very exciting bouts in the prelims as well.
Prelims
As I did with the last Fight Night, instead of covering the entirety of the prelims, I’m going to pick out the matchups that excite me the most and cover those.
Brian Kelleher vs. Kevin Croom
Bantamweight Bout
Brian Kelleher: 23-12-0, 8 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Kevin Croom: 21-13-0, 6 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
A very interesting matchup, which is evident based on each fighters wealth of experience, I’m very intrigued by this bout. Brian Kelleher has found victories in 3 of his last five fights, and has wins over Ode’ Osbourne (10-4-0), former UFC Bantamweight Champion Renan Barao (34-9-0), and Iuri Alcantara (35-10-0). Kelleher is an over ten year veteran of MMA, having fought across the country in promotions like Ring of Combat, Cage Fury, and even Bellator before finding his way into the UFC in 2017. Despite being listed as a BJJ fighter, “Boom” is very well rounded, with a solid ability to strike on the feet with good power in his hands. Kelleher does have excellent grappling, as 4 of his 7 UFC victories came via Submission, all of the 4 coming in the first round. Training at team Maxum BJJ, he also has great wrestling to complement his Jiu-Jitsu, often securing powerful double leg takedowns to take the fight to the mat. Kelleher has an excellent guillotine, and has 3 victories via 1st round guillotine in the UFC. He’s also very durable and very capable of going a full 15 minutes. Kevin Croom comes into this bout having won 3 of his last 5, although one of those fights was actually a 1st round submission win for Croom, but was overturned to a no contest due to a positive test for marijuana. Croom will be making just his third UFC appearance, but has victories over Roosevelt Roberts (10-3-0), Charles Bennett (30-42-2) and Darrick Minner (26-13-0). He has plenty of experience outside the UFC, with fights in the RFA, LFA, Shooto, and Bellator. Croom tends to be very active on the feet, constantly moving and throwing a lot of hooks, and just going for power shots in general. Croom seems to often set up his grappling with his striking, using voluminous boxing to get in close for a takedown. When the fight is on the ground, Croom will often pursue chokes, particularly rear naked chokes. Kelleher opens as a pretty decent favorite at -300, with Croom a +240 underdog, which makes sense considering Croom wasn’t even fighting up until Thursday. Both fighters have very similar records but I think Kelleher’s guillotine could be the difference maker in this fight. Croom has been caught in quick guillotines before while going for takedowns, and I think with such a short notice bout he’s going to want to take the fight where he’s most comfortable. I do have a bias towards Kelleher, he’s never in a boring fight and is one of my favorite guys to watch, and I think he takes the victory here. Due to Kelleher being such a big favorite, betting rounds has better value, so I’m gonna go with the under. Croom is on such short notice and has a decent amount of first round losses, and with so little time to game plan I don’t know how well he will fare.
Picks: Under 2.5 Rounds, Kelleher -300Charles Rosa vs. TJ Brown
Featherweight Bout
Charles Rosa: 14-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
TJ Brown: 15-8-0, 4 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.
The first fight of the card, this is a great matchup that I think will make for a very fun fight. Charles Rosa comes into this bout with wins in 2 of his last 5 fights. Rosa is a pretty unique fighter, coming from a family with a boxing background, yet fighting with a rather karate-like stand up game. While he may not use his lead leg quite as often as other karate fighters, he does have a solid kicking game and good power in his hands. Training out of American Combat Gym and formerly American Top Team, Rosa has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a solid variety of submission victories on his record. His best wins came over Sean Soriano (14-8-0) and Manny Bermudez (14-2-0), both being submission victories. “Boston Strong” has a tendency to go for power as opposed to volume on the feet, will constantly blitz and retreat, and regularly change stances. There’s not really one specific submission he’ll regularly go after, but is extremely skilled from his back as well as on top. TJ Brown has won 3 of his last five, with 1 of those wins coming in the UFC and one on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. His best victory came over Kai Kamaka (9-4-1), but has decent experience having fought in both the RFA and LFA. On the feet, Brown loves to headhunt, throwing powerful shots with his hands and fighting behind his jab, mixing in the occasional head kick. Training at Westside Fight Team, “Downtown” has shown great grappling in his career, with powerful, damaging takedowns and very good ability with chokes. Despite his grappling prowess, Brown does seem to enjoy getting into exchanges on the feet, which is exemplified in his fight with Kamaka where he took a razor thin split decision win. When the fight does reach the mat, Brown will usually chase either an arm triangle or a rear naked choke, two submissions he has pulled off multiple times in his career. He can be a bit unpredictable though, as he has quality grappling but also some wild, brawling tendencies on the feet. TJ Brown opens as a -255 favorite, with Rosa the +200 underdog. This is a very short notice fight for Rosa, as the news broke of him replacing Gabriel Benitez on Wednesday. This is a tough fight to pick a winner in, Rosa has more high level experience and a more well rounded game, but is coming in without a full camp. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a finish in this fight, but it could come pretty late. Over 2.5 rounds is the safest pick, and I’ll be a little dangerous here and take Rosa moneyline. I think he’s more technical than Brown on the feet and more skilled on the ground, but it’s very tough to win on such short notice, so this is a very risky pick.
Picks: Over 2.5 Rounds, Rosa +200Main Card
Bill Algeo vs. Joanderson Brito
Featherweight Bout
Bill Algeo: 14-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
Joanderson Brito: 12-2-1, 5 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
The first fight of the main card, this fight features two very fun prospects. This is Joanderson Brito’s UFC debut, and he hasn’t lost a fight in nearly 6 years, with nearly all of those wins coming via finish. Brito uses a brutal, highly aggressive Muay Thai style on the feet, constantly throwing long and devastating combos. He loves to throw power shots, often throwing multiple hooks in each combination, but is great at mixing in kicks and body shots. He is a good grappler as well, with an excellent choke game and quality wrestling. He showed his defensive grappling abilities in his fight on the Contender Series, where he defended multiple submissions and did a great job working out of bad situations. Training at Chute Boxe, Brito has a highly entertaining style, brawling and throwing bombs on the feet and shooting powerful slam takedowns, as well as landing big shots on the ground. He can and will take the fight anywhere, and doesn’t seem to be uncomfortable in any position whether it’s on the feet or the ground. Bill Algeo has won 2 of his last 5 fights, with his best win coming over Spike Carlyle (13-3-0). Although he only has 3 UFC fights, Algeo is experienced on the MMA scene, with fights in Cage Fury, World Series of Fighting (now PFL), and held and defended a title in Ring of Combat. Algeo uses a karate-like style on the feet, often keeping his hands down and throwing a variety of strikes including kicks and punches to both the head and body. Training at Algeo MMA & Kickboxing, he will engage on the feet, showcasing decent head movement and hand speed, with solid power in his kicks. Algeo is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but also has a good wrestling background. He’s good on his back and on top, willing to throw ground and pound as well as pursue submissions, having his most success with rear naked chokes. He’s also shown good takedown defense and clinchwork in his UFC tenure. Algeo also seems to gain confidence as the fight goes on, but also seems to fade a bit over the course of three rounds and doesn’t have quite the speed or technicality he shows early. Brito is a slight favorite in this fight at -140, putting Algeo at +120 as the underdog. I think Algeo’s tendency to fight with his hands down could prove to be a real problem, as Brito loves to storm forward and throw huge shots. I like Brito by knockout, Algeo’s confidence may be his downfall in this one. Although Algeo has seen plenty of decisions recently, this is not at all the case with Brito, so I’ll also take under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Brito by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 roundsDakota Bush vs. Viacheslav Borshchev
Lightweight Bout
Dakota Bush: 8-3-0, 2 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Viacheslav Borshchev: 5-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
An exciting matchup of two prospects, I’d be shocked to see this fight go 3 rounds. Dakota Bush comes into his second UFC fight having won 3 of his last five, with none of those wins coming in the UFC. He has no big name victories, with all of his wins coming on the regional circuit. Training at Glory MMA, on the feet Bush tends to blitz forward and through a lot of big hooks, using a kickboxing style and mixing in a lot of lead leg attacks. He isn’t the most technical striker, throwing a lot of hooks and power shots mixed in with kicks to the body. Bush is a solid grappler, much better with his submission game than wrestling game. When on the ground, Bush will typically look for ground and pound or a choke, specifically the rear naked choke, which he has found all 4 of his submission wins with. He will throw spinning attacks on occasion, and can find himself in brawls on the feet due to his tendency to throw constant power shots. Viacheslav Borshchev has won 4 of his last 5 wins, with this being his UFC debut after a beautiful knockout of Chris Duncan (7-1-0) on the Contender Series. Borshchev uses technical, tight kickboxing on the feet, throwing beautiful combinations with power behind every shot he throws. Training at the excellent Team Alpha Male, he can also throw powerful kicks high and low, and is a great counter-puncher. He showed a great ability to overcome adversity in his Contender Series fight, working out of some really tough spots and engaging in some brutal exchanges on the feet. He’s not likely to take the fight to the mat, but definitely has wrestling ability from training at a camp with some really top level wrestlers. He also has one of my all time favorite nicknames, “Slava Claus,” gifting exciting fights to fans every time he gets in the cage. Borschchev is the favorite here at -190, with Bush the underdog at +160. Honestly, a Russian who trains at Team Alpha Male kind of speaks for itself. I think Borshchev will overwhelm Bush on the feet with his much more technical striking, and ultimately find the knockout. The safest bet on this fight is definitely under 2.5 rounds, but I’ll also take Borshchev by KO/TKO.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Borshchev by KO/TKO#2 Katlyn Chookagian vs. #4 Jennifer Maia
Women’s Flyweight Bout
Katlyn Chookagian: 16-4-0, 2 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Jennifer Maia: 19-7-1, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
A fantastic stylistic matchup, this fight is actually a rematch, with their first fight taking place in 2019. Chookagian took the first fight by unanimous decision, and has won 3 of her last five fights. Chookagian has really fought a who’s who of women’s flyweight, with wins over Lauren Murphy (15-5-0), Alexis Davis (20-11-0) and Viviane Araujo (10-3-0). Training at Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, Chookagian is known for her boxing style on the feet, using crisp combos and excellent counter-punching to do damage to her opponents. Chookagian also has good kicks, able to use a wide variety of attacks and mix kicks in with punch combinations. While definitely a striker, Chookagian has the ability to mix it up on the ground, often resorting to ground and pound instead of submissions. She’s one of the most experienced fighters in the entire division, being tied for the most fights in the women’s flyweight division and has the second most wins of all time in that division. Her last two losses came against the very best of the division, being #1 contender Jessica Andrade (22-9-0) and current women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0). Jennifer Maia has also won 3 of her last 5 fights, scoring solid victories over Jessica Eye (15-10-0), Joanne Wood (15-7-0) and Roxanne Modafferi (25-20-0). Maia, despite having a black belt in Muay Thai, largely uses her boxing on the feet, but is a bit less technical than her opponent and tends to throw more looping shots. She has some decent kicking ability, but won’t throw kicks too often, usually throwing a few leg kicks and a very occasional head kick. Training at the legendary Chute Boxe, Maia is an excellent grappler and has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Maia will go for both ground and pound and submissions, with a handful of armbars on her record. A former Invicta women’s flyweight champ, Maia does actually have some professional boxing experience as well, going 3-0 in her career. In their first bout, which was only 2 years ago, we saw Chookagian overwhelm Maia on the feet with more technical striking, both landing more strikes and being more accurate than her opponent. Unsurprisingly, Chookagian is the favorite at -190, with Maia the underdog at +160. There really hasn’t been all that much time since their last fight, and Chookagian has both fought better competition and been more active than Maia since their first bout. Over 2.5 rounds is very safe for this fight, with Chookagian going to decision in 11 of her 13 UFC fights, and Maia 6 of her 7. I will also take Chookagian moneyline, I don’t know if Maia has improved enough from their first fight and I expect a similar outcome.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Chookagian -190#5 Brandon Royval vs. #7 Rogerio Bontorin
Flyweight Bout
Brandon Royval: 12-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Rogerio Bontorin: 17-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.
A significant bout in the flyweight division, this a great matchup of fighters with similar styles. Brandon Royval has won 3 of his last five fights, scoring impressive wins over Tim Elliot (18-12-1) and Kai Kara-France (23-9-0). Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, Royval is a well rounded fighter, but is at his best on the ground. Royval showed his ability on the feet in his fight with Kai Kara-France, with the first round being one of the craziest rounds I’ve ever watched. Royval has both speed and power in his hands, utilizing a loose, kickboxing style and a solid mix of kicks and punches. He has no problem engaging in big exchanges on the feet, and also has a solid chin. He is excellent on the ground, with a black belt in BJJ, and is able to seemingly find submissions from anywhere with an excellent defensive grappling game to complement his submission capabilities. He has a solid variety of submission victories on his record, being very sufficient in chokes and joint locks. Although he’s lost his last two fights, it was to the best of the division in the current UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno (19-5-2) and #3 flyweight Alexandre Pantoja (24-5-0). Rogerio Bontorin has also won 3 of his last 5 fights, with wins over Matt Schnell (15-6-0) and Raulian Paiva (21-4-0). On the feet, Bontorin uses a boxing style, often throwing big looping hooks and aggressively headhunting. He will mix in some leg kicks, but largely uses his hands when engaging in striking. Bontorin, training with the Gile Ribeiro/Noguchi Team, is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and is very capable on the ground, but is actually yet to pick up a submission win in the UFC. It seems if he does pursue a submission, it tends to be the rear naked choke, with 8 of his 11 submission victories being via rear naked. Bontorin has solid power for a flyweight, and a decent chin to complement it, but can be knocked out as shown in his first round KO loss to Kai Kara-France. Brandon Royval is the betting favorite in this fight at -170, with Bontorin the underdog at +145. I think although he has less UFC fights, Royval has faced much stiffer competition, and went toe-to-toe and won against Kara-France, who slept Bontorin. Bontorin also has a tendency to come out a bit flat-footed and slow in the first round, something Royval can certainly capitalize on. I’d be surprised if this fight saw the judges, so I’ll definitely take under 2.5 rounds, but I’m pretty confident Royval picks up the win in this fight by finish.
Picks: Royval by KO/TKO or Sub., Under 2.5 roundsJake Collier vs. Chase Sherman
Heavyweight Bout
Jake Collier: 12-6-0, 5 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Chase Sherman: 15-8-0, 14 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
A classic bout between two big heavyweights with heavy hands, this should be an entertaining co-main. Jake Collier has won 2 of his last 5 fights, with victories over Gian Villante (17-14-0) and Marcel Fortuna (9-4-0). Training at Pit MMA, Collier is a pretty typical heavyweight, utilizing a boxing style and heavy hands on the feet. He has a tendency to put his head down and throw big hooks, but can put together some nice combos and decent volume for a fighter of his size. He will also throw some kicks, largely consisting of leg kicks and a few head kicks. Although he has 3 submissions on his record, he really doesn’t initiate grappling situations too often, usually preferring to just slug it out on the feet. Collier can take a punch like most heavyweights, but has been knocked out twice in the UFC. He has traded wins his entire UFC career, and hasn’t fared well when given high level competition like Tom Aspinall (11-2-0) or Carlos Felipe (11-2-0). Collier does a good job of keeping his boxing technical over the course of the fight, and will really only throw wild when he has his opponent hurt. Chase Sherman has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and has victories over Ike Villanueva (18-13-0) and Damian Grabowski (21-5-0). Similar to Collier, Sherman is a boxer, throwing heavy hooks, straights, and solid combinations. He does have a decent kicking game, able to throw strong leg and body kicks alongside his punches. Like his opponent, he rarely takes the fight to the ground, and I think his record really speaks to that. This is actually his second run in the UFC, and has struggled against high level competition, with losses to Andrei Arlovski (32-20-0) and Walt Harris (13-10-0). Training at the excellent Jackson-Wink MMA, Sherman seems to be at his best early, as like many heayweights he doesn’t have the best cardio and has had a tendency to fade as the fight goes on. Collier is a slight favorite at -135, and Sherman the underdog at +110. The safest pick here would definitely be over 2.5 rounds, although this is a heavyweight bout both fighters have been going to decisions as of late and neither fighter has been finished very many times in their career. This is a brutal fight to pick a winner in: if Sherman could get it going early he could take a victory, but I think Collier is just a little more technical, as well as having slightly better cardio and better output. I’ll cautiously take Collier in this one.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Collier -135#5 Calvin Kattar vs. #8 Giga Chikadze
Featherweight Bout
Calvin Kattar: 22-5-0, 11 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Giga Chikadze: 14-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
An absolutely excellent matchup of top level strikers, this main event is guaranteed to be fireworks. Calvin Kattar comes into this bout having won 3 of his last 5, with wins over Dan Ige (15-5-0), Jeremy Stephens (28-19-0), and Hinsdale Central alumni Ricardo Lamas (20-8-0). Kattar is a highly technical and patient boxer, often biding his time and fighting behind his jab before landing devastating shots with his hands. Training with the New England Cartel, Kattar proved his toughness by surviving one of the worst one sided beatings I’ve ever witnessed against former UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway (23-6-0). Kattar isn’t one to initiate much grappling, but has shown decent wrestling ability with solid takedowns as well as good clinch work. Kattar tends to lull people in, not throwing a ton of punches and utilizing his footwork and head movement, until suddenly unleashing strong combos and then returning to range. Although he is patient, he will engage in big exchanges without getting sloppy. He also has great cardio and can easily go a full five rounds, and has proven to be very tough to put away, having never been knocked out in his career. Giga Chikadze comes into this fight having won all of his last five fights, with impressive victories over UFC mainstays in Cub Swanson (28-12-0) and Edson Barboza (22-10-0). Giga is known for his excellent kickboxing, with great power and speed in his hands and some of the most devastating body kicks in the entire UFC. Training at Kings MMA, Chikadze has a background in kickboxing, going 38-8-0 in his pro kickboxing career with 22 knockouts. Like his opponent, he’s pretty unlikely to take the fight to the ground but has shown good takedown defense and a good ability to work in the clinch. Chikadze has gained some fame for the “Giga Kick,” a moniker given to his brutal body kicks, exemplified by his knockout of Cub Swanson. Giga has proved to be one of the most high level kickboxers in the UFC, and has black belts in both Goju-ryu and Kyokushin Karate. Chikadze is the favorite here, coming in at -240 with Kattar the +200 underdog. I definitely think people are fading Kattar a bit too hard in this fight, as they’re probably a bit afraid to bet on him after his fight with Holloway. Still though, I see Giga taking the victory here. You can have the best chin in the world, but there’s only so much you can do when your liver is being blasted into oblivion. I'‘ll take Chikadze by KO/TKO, and a bit riskier pick in under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Chikadze by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus Preview
Coming off of one of the biggest cards of the year, in which we witnessed massive upsets and some incredible fights, we go into the final UFC fight card of the year. This card is headlined by a wild heavyweight matchup, Derrick Lewis vs Chris Daukaus. Both fighters being knockout artists in their own right, this is a great fight to cap off a great year in MMA. Throughout the card, there’s a scattering of prospects and veterans, all trying to pick up their final victories of 2021. There’s great fights from top to bottom on this Fight Night, and plenty to look forward to.
Prelims
Unlike a pay-per-view card, Fight Nights are not broken up into Prelims and Early Prelims, so instead of breaking down the entirety of the prelims, I’m simply picking my favorite fights from them and analyzing them.
Jordan Leavitt vs Matt Sayles
Lightweight Bout
Jordan Leavitt: 8-1-0, 1 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Matt Sayles: 8-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
The very first bout of this Fight Night, this is one of the biggest sleeper fights of the entire night. A classic striker vs. grappler matchup, I think this is a great way to kick off the card. Jordan Leavitt comes into this fight having won 4 of his last 5, as well as producing one of the best highlight finishes of 2020 with a slam KO of Matt Wiman (16-10-0). One of these victories came in the UFC, with another being a 1st round submission on the Contender Series over Jose Flores (9-2-0). Leavitt has shown striking ability, with decent hands and is able to mix in some kicks, but typically uses his striking to set up his takedowns. Training at Syndicate MMA, Leavitt largely resorts to hip throws and powerful double leg slams, quickly pursuing a variety of submissions when he does get the fight to the mat. With four 1st round submissions to his name, Leavitt is a very dangerous grappler, especially early on in a fight when he’s fresh. Matt Sayles comes into this bout with 3 wins in his last 5 fights, with notable wins over Kyle Nelson (13-4-0) and Christian Aguilera (14-8-0). Training at Alliance MMA, Sayles is a solid striker, mostly favoring power shots, throwing big bombs with his right hand and powerful kicks with his right leg. Sayles grappling isn’t excellent, but will usually resort to ground-and-pound if the fight goes to the floor. He’s only been finished once, coming in a submission loss to one of the hottest UFC prospects, Bryce Mitchell (14-1-0). This being his most recent loss, I think it may be a bit telling of the outcome of this upcoming bout with Leavitt. Seeing how easily Mitchell took down and dominated Sayles, I think Leavitt will experience similar success with his strong wrestling and excellent submission game. This fight surprisingly sits at even odds, with both fighters at -110. I really like Leavitt in this matchup, and I’d be shocked to see this one go to the judges. The safest pick would be under 2.5 rounds, and I expect to see Leavitt win by submission.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Leavitt by Sub.Charles Jourdain vs Andre Ewell
Featherweight Bout
Charles Jourdain: 11-4-1, 8 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Andre Ewell: 17-8-0, 7 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
The fourth fight of the night, this a bout I’m surprised isn’t receiving more eyes. A matchup between two strikers, I expect this to be a war on the feet. Charles Jourdain comes into this fight having won only 2 of his last 5, with one of those fights being a draw. He has notable victories over Marcelo Rojo (16-8-0) and Dooho Choi (14-4-0). Training out of Acadamie Pro Star MMA, Jourdain is known for his flashy kickboxing style and excellent hands. Jourdain has finished every one of his victories, using a variety of strikes to attain these finishes including punches, kicks, knees, as well as flying and spinning attacks. Despite recent losses, Jourdain is never in a boring fight, such as a hard-fought submission loss to rising star Julian Erosa (26-10-0) and a war in a draw with Josh Culibao (9-1-1). Jourdain has the ability to be technical and use clean combos, but will also throw caution to the wind with flying knees and spinning kicks, making him an unpredictable and dangerous striker. Andre Ewell comes into this fight having also won 2 of his last 5, with victories over Irwin Rivera (10-6-0) and Jonathan Martinez (14-4-0). He also scored a notable victory in his UFC debut, winning a split decision over former UFC Bantamweight Champion Renan Barao (34-9-0). Training at Apex MMA, Ewell utilizes a karate-like striking style, fighting in a split stance with his hands often down at his waist. Ewell carries solid power, and like many karate fighters fires off plenty of lead leg kicks, often setting up his punches with his kicks. I think this fight has a chance to be one of the better scraps on the entire card, especially considering both could be fighting to keep their job. Jourdain is a -200 favorite, with Ewell a +170 underdog. I like Jourdain in this fight: I expect him to take advantage of Ewell’s hands-down striking style and either outclass him or pull off a wild knockout. Jourdain moneyline is the safest pick here, but I also like under 2.5 rounds, as I anticipate both fighters leaving it all in the Octagon this Saturday.
Picks: Jourdain -200, Under 2.5 roundsRaoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry
Bantamweight Bout
Raoni Barcelos: 16-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Victor Henry: 21-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Another fight I’m surprised hasn’t garnered more attention, this is the 7th fight of the night, and a good one at that. Both fighters have a wealth of experience beyond the UFC, both having challenged for titles in other promotions. Raoni Barcelos comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, this year past June taking his first loss in 6 years to fellow prospect Timur Valiev (18-2-0). Barcelos, a former RFA Bantamweight Champion, has notable victories over Said Nurmagomedov (14-2-0) and Bobby Moffett (14-6-0). Training out of Rizzo RVT, Barcelos is dangerous wherever the fight goes. He has great striking, using a Muay Thai style and often throws devastating hooks, uppercuts, and leg kicks. He also is an excellent grappler, with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as some quality wrestling mixed in. Barcelos is a high energy, high pressure fighter that is constantly moving forward, looking to either land big strikes or a takedown whenever the opportunity presents itself. Victor Henry comes into this bout having won 4 of his last five, with this being his UFC debut. His most notable victory being over top UFC prospect Kyler Phillips (9-2-0), this is by no way Henry’s introduction to the big leagues of MMA. Henry has fought in King of the Cage, BAMMA, Pancrase, Deep, and Rizin, even fighting for a title in a losing effort against Shintaro Ishiwatari (26-9-4) in Pancrase. Henry, training out of UWF-USA, seems to be a pretty pure MMA fighter, slightly favoring ground exchanges, but still very willing to go at it on the feet. Henry has good hands and likes to throw a lot of head and low kicks, as well as an excellent ability to throw strikes, particularly knees, in the clinch. He also seems more likely to get a takedown from the clinch than out in the open, utilizing a lot of bodylocks and trips. Like Barcelos, he’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes. Barcelos is the favorite at -310, with Henry the underdog at +250. While Henry has plenty of experience, I think Barcelos is just a bit better in every aspect of the fight, with more technical striking and seemingly higher level grappling, especially in the BJJ department. Despite Barcelos seeing decisions in his last three fights, I like the under 2.5, as well As Barcelos by KO/TKO. I see him really putting on a show in this fight, whether its on the ground or the feet, and picking up the victory by finish.
Picks: Barcelos by KO/TKO, Under 2.5Main Card
Cub Swanson vs. Darren Elkins
Featherweight Bout
Cub Swanson: 27-12-0, 12 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Darren Elkins: 27-9-0, 10 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
A fight between two great UFC veterans, we have another classic matchup of striker vs. grappler. Cub Swanson comes into this fight with 2 wins in his last five fights, scoring victories over Kron Gracie (5-1-0) and Daniel Pineda (27-14-0). He also has notable victories over current UFC Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira (32-8-0) and former UFC Interim Lightweight Champion Dustin Poirier (28-7-0). Training at the excellent Jackson-Wink MMA, Cub Swanson is a UFC mainstay that has been supplying fans with exciting fights for nearly two decades. Swanson is an excellent striker, known for throwing thunderous, looping hooks, devastating leg kicks, and constant forward motion. Swanson will often charge forward to throw big combos, mostly consisting of hooks and straights, but also has a great kicking game and will throw a variety of attacks with his legs. “Killer” Cub also has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and will mix in wrestling on occasion, but has been submitted 7 times in his career and will mostly keep the fight standing. Darren Elkins has similarly won 2 of his last five, but those two wins were in his last two bouts, those being over Darrick Minner (26-13-0) and Eduardo Garagorri (13-2). He also has notable victories over Duane Ludwig (22-14-0) and Michael Johnson (20-17-0). Elkins has made a name for himself through both his excellent wrestling and legendary toughness, earning the name tattooed on his chest, “The Damage.” Training out of a great camp in Team Alpha Male, Elkins uses boxing style striking, fighting behind his jab and mainly using his striking to set up his takedowns. When the fight does go to the ground, Elkins will mostly go for ground and pound, but will occasionally pursue a choke. Swanson is a -200 favorite, putting Elkins at a +170 underdog. This is a super tough fight to pick a winner in: both are 20+ fight veterans of the UFC, so there’s very few situations either of these men haven’t been in. I think the safest bet would be over 2.5 rounds, as Elkins rarely gets finished, and I think Swanson has intelligent enough ground game to not get finished on the bottom. I’m going to go with Swanson on this one, I think he has vastly superior striking and his wrestling and jiu-jitsu should be good enough to fend off Elkins.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Swanson -200Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Lightweight Bout
Diego Ferreira: 17-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.
Mateusz Gamrot: 19-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
A fight I think easily could’ve been the co-main, this is a fascinating matchup. Diego Ferreira has won 3 of his last 5, with noteworthy victories over former UFC Lightweight Champion Anthony Pettis (24-12-0) and Rustam Khabilov (24-4-0). Training at the great Fortis MMA, Ferreira utilizes a brawling style in the stand up, throwing a lot of heavy straight punches and looping hooks, as well as applying forward pressure. Ferreira has excellent BJJ, and prefers to take the fight to the ground, but is more than willing to stand and exchange. Despite his grappling pedigree as a medalist in both the Pan-American and Nogi World Jiu-Jitsu Championships, he actually has more knockouts in his UFC career than submissions. Ferreira isn’t the most polished striker, often blitzing forward to throw wild combos, but does carry good power in his hands. His grappling ability keeps his opponents concerned enough about takedowns, improving the effectiveness of his striking much of the time. Mateusz Gamrot has found victories in 4 of his last 5 fights, with significant wins coming over Jeremy Stephens (28-19-0) and Scott Holtzman (14-5-0). Gamrot, a former KSW Lightweight Champion, is extremely well rounded and able to pull of wild knockouts as well as brutal submissions. Training at the excellent American Top Team, “Gamer” is a great technical striker with beautiful boxing combos and a solid kicking game to complement his hands. Gamrot also possesses great footwork and head movement, which aids him in his wrestling as it can often disguise his takedowns. Mateusz Gamrot is the favorite at -195, with Ferreira the underdog at +165. I think Gamrot’s high level striking will prove too much for Ferreira, as well as his defensive wrestling being too good for Ferreira to get the fight where he’s more comfortable. I’m taking Gamrot by KO/TKO, as well as under 2.5 rounds.
Picks: Gamrot by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 Rounds#12 Raphael Assuncao vs. Ricky Simon
Bantamweight Bout
Raphael Assuncao: 27-8-0, 4 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.
Ricky Simon: 18-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Another fight featuring a long time veteran of the UFC, this is a very interesting fight. Raphael Assuncao has been in the UFC for a decade now, and comes into this fight having won 2 of his last five fights. This is Assuncao’s first fight since being on the receiving end of a brutal knockout by former UFC Bantamweight Champion Cody Garbrandt (12-5-0). Assuncao has notable victories over former UFC Bantamweight Champion TJ Dillashaw (18-4-0) and current UFC Bantamweight “Champion” Aljamain Sterling (20-3-0). Training at Ascension MMA, he utilizes a patient boxing style when on the feet, often waiting for openings and counter-striking opportunities. Assuncao has a black belt in BJJ, and thus has an excellent submission game and solid wrestling, but also is a good defensive grappler, able to defend takedowns well. While not quite the veteran his opponent is, Ricky Simon has still managed to rack up 8 UFC fights in just 3 years. Simon, a former LFA Bantamweight Champion, comes into this fight with 3 victories in his last 5 bouts. He has significant wins over Merab Dvalishvili (14-4-0) and Ray Borg (14-5-0). Simon is best known for his wrestling, using powerful double legs and slams to drag his opponent to the mat, where he’ll typically look to use his ground-and-pound and top control to find victories. Simon does also have solid striking, possessing good speed and power in his hands. He tends to use big, looping combinations to set up his takedowns, and is very proficient in the clinch. Simon is a decent favorite at -280, with Assuncao being a +230 underdog. I’m surprised Simon is getting that big of an edge in this fight, but I think people are weary when it comes on betting on Assuncao after the Garbrandt KO. The safest pick here is definitely over 2.5 rounds, as Simon has seen the judges 5 times in his 8 UFC fights, and Assuncao 10 times in his 16 UFC fights. I could very easily see this fight going either way, but I’m going to take Simon. I hate picking up a moneyline favorite that big, but I really don’t see Simon finishing him, I see him taking a Unanimous Decision via dominant wrestling.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Simon -280#11 Amanda Lemos vs. #12 Angela Hill
Strawweight Bout
Amanda Lemos: 10-1-1, 7 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Angela Hill: 13-10-0, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
One of three female fights on the card, this is definitely the best of the three. Amanda Lemos has been an absolute wrecking ball in her short career, finishing all but one of her wins, coming into this fight having won 4 of her last 5. She really doesn’t have any big names she’s taken out though, with her most notable wins over Livinha Souza (14-4-0) and Montserrat Conejo (10-2-0). Training with the Marajo Brothers Team, Lemos is known for her explosive hands, constantly moving forward and throwing big, vicious combos. She also has solid grappling ability, mostly securing takedowns in the clinch where she’s especially dangerous, often landing big shots from close when she isn’t pursuing a takedown. “Amandinha” won her last two fights by first round knockout, getting both with her devastating hands. 8 of her twelve professional fights didn’t make it out the first round, proving she’s at her most dangerous early on in the fight. Angela Hill has won 2 of her last five fights, all of which went to decision. Living up to her nickname, “Overkill” has incredibly managed to have 15 fights in the UFC since 2017, with noteworthy victories over Hannah Cifers (10-7-0) and Ashley Yoder twice (8-8-0). Hill, who went 16-0 in kickboxing prior to her MMA career, is unsurprisingly known for her technical muay thai striking and forward pressure. Training at Alliance MMA, She is also a capable wrestler, able to mix in the occasional takedown, but largely favors stand up. Amanda Lemos is a massive favorite at -360, the biggest favorite on the card, with Angela Hill the underdog at +280. While Lemos has garnered quite a bit of hype, she really hasn’t faced serious competition, with 3 of her five UFC victories coming over opponents with less than 4 UFC bouts. The safest bet here would be over 2.5 rounds, Hill has never been knocked out and has seen the judges in all of her last 5 fights. Hill is one of my favorite female fighters in MMA, and I’m going to go with my bias here and take Angela Hill. This is a huge step up in competition for Lemos, and I think she may struggle with the pace that Hill keeps, especially considering how short many of Lemos’ fights have been.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Hill +280#5 Stephen Thompson vs. #10 Belal Muhammad
Welterweight Bout
Stephen Thompson: 16-5-1, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Belal Muhammad: 19-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
A fight that easily could’ve been the main event of its own Fight Night, this is a very interesting matchup that I don’t imagine many predicted prior to its booking. Stephen Thompson is one of the absolute best strikers in MMA, coming into this bout having won 2 of his last 5. With noteworthy victories over former UFC Welterweight Champion Johny Hendricks (18-8-0) and Jorge Masvidal (35-15-0), Thompson always puts on a show, whether it’s a loss or a victory. One of the last true specialists in MMA, Thompson has become famous for his karate-based striking, utilizing a split leg stance, constant attacks with his front leg, and long straight punches. Training with Team Upstate Karate, “Wonderboy” went 58-0 in kickboxing prior to his MMA career. You’ll practically never see Thompson initiate grappling exchanges, but has shown improvement on the ground, especially in his defensive wrestling. Belal Muhammad has found victory in 4 of his last 5 fights, and has impressive wins over Demian Maia (28-11-0) and Tim Means (32-12-1). Primarily a wrestler, Muhammad prefers to take the fight to the mat, using his strong double leg takedowns to drag his opponents to the floor and land ground and pound. When the fight is on the feet, Muhammad uses a heavy handed boxing style, throwing lots of technical combinations, often using his punching ability to get in close for a takedown. Thompson is the favorite, coming in at -230, putting Muhammad as the underdog at +190. I can’t imagine Muhammad is going to want to exchange much on the feet, but I think Thompson should have solid enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing. Due to this, I’m going with Thompson moneyline, with my safest pick being over 2.5 rounds. I see Thompson outclassing Muhammad and gassing him out by defending takedowns, but I don’t anticipate a finish, as both men have gone to decisions in the majority of their fights.
Picks: Over 2.5 Rounds, Thompson -230#3 Derrick Lewis vs. #7 Chris Daukaus
Heavyweight Bout
Derrick Lewis: 25-8-0, 20 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
Chris Daukaus: 12-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
The main event of the night, this is bound to be a wild, heavy handed brawl. Derrick Lewis, the record holder for most UFC heavyweight knockouts with 12, comes into this fight having won 4 of his last 5. Training out of Grind House Fitness, Lewis has significant victories over current UFC Heavyweight Champion Francis Ngannou (16-3-0) and Curtis Blaydes (15-3-0). Famous for his kill-or-be-killed style, Lewis has some of the most powerful punches in all of the UFC, arguably only matched by Francis Ngannou. When striking, Lewis has a very unique, patient style which he uses to catch his opponents off guard with his massive power. Surprisingly for someone of his stature, he has shown the ability to throw powerful kicks, and even the occasional jumping kick, but will mostly use his hands to do damage. He doesn’t often initiate grappling exchanges, and is well known for his rather non-technical wrestling style of “just getting up,” but can do serious damage if he gets on top of someone. Chris Daukaus has been red hot, winning 5 of his last 5 fights, all by knockout, with 4 of them coming in the first round. Daukaus scored notable wins over Aleksei Oleinik (59-16-1) and Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0), and is by far one of the biggest heavyweight prospects in the division right now. Training out of Martinez BJJ, Daukaus possesses shocking speed for a heavyweight, using his excellent boxing to overwhelm his opponents with sheer volume and power. Similar to Lewis, he rarely takes the fight to the mat, but possesses solid clinchwork, a black belt in BJJ, as well as good defensive wrestling. Daukaus is very unique to the heavyweight division, using volume to put people asleep opposed to the one-punch power we see many heavyweights use to get finishes. Chris Daukaus is a small favorite at -135, with Lewis the underdog at +115. I’d be absolutely shocked to see this fight go 5 rounds, but at the same time I think both fighters are too tough to go out in the first. I’ll take over 1.5 rounds on this fight, but I think Daukaus moneyline is the safer bet. I think Daukaus is too smart to fall for Lewis’ tricks, and his speed will ultimately be the difference maker, landing at volume and simply overwhelming Lewis. This pains me to say, as I like most others love Derrick Lewis, but I don’t see him taking this one.
Picks: Daukaus -135, Over 1.5 Rounds
UFC 269 Preview
In a year with 20 title fights, the title in 5 different weight classes changed hands 5 times, yet it is the 21st of these title fights that may have garnered the most hype. Coming off of two consecutive victories over Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier has quickly become one of the biggest fan favorites of the year. He’s received great praise from the pundits of the sport as well, often being placed higher on Pound for Pound lists than his champion counterpart and opponent this Saturday, Charles Oliveira. Oliveira, on the other hand, is coming into his first title defense after an incredible championship victory against perennial Bellator title contender Michael Chandler. While this main event may be what attracts many viewers to this pay-per-view, there’s plenty of excellent fights beyond this, whether it’s the main card or the prelims.
Prelims
Jordan Wright vs. Bruno Silva
Jordan Wright: 12-1-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
Bruno Silva: 21-6-0, 18 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
A contest we can expect to mostly remain on the feet, this fight is a great way to kick off the prelims. Jordan Wright is coming off a string of 4 fights that all didn’t see a 3rd round, winning three of those 4 by KO/TKO, and losing 1 by KO/TKO. He trains at the legendary Jackson-Wink MMA Academy, he’s known for his Karate-style standup, along with a decent ability to wrestle, although I don’t anticipate him using it much in this fight. His UFC opponents so far has largely consisted of up-and-comers (Jamie Pickett, 12-6-0, Joaquin Buckley 13-4-0) outside of veteran Ike Villanueva (18-13). Bruno Silva’s last five bouts have all ended via KO/TKO, all of which being victories and two being within the UFC. Despite having less UFC fights, Silva has more overall experience in his career, largely taking place on the Brazilian regional scene, as well as managing to become the M-1 Global Middleweight Champion. Training out of Evolucao Thai, he largely utilizes his boxing ability, but also has some beautiful clinch knees and an ability to mix in kicks. Bruno Silva opens as a solid favorite at-360, with Wright at +280. Wright’s flashy striking does make him an appealing underdog, I believe the best pick on this fight would be Under 1.5 rounds. If you really want a moneyline bet, I’d take Silva, but the line is a bit inflated, so Silva by KO would be a better bet.
Picks: Under 1.5 rounds, Silva by KO/TKOAugusto Sakai vs. Tai Tuivasa
Augusto Sakai: 15-3-1, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Tai Tuivasa: 13-3-0, 12 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
Yet another fight virtually guaranteed to be settled standing up, we’ve got two big boys ready to go to war. Augusto Sakai has taken two consecutive KO/TKO losses, both against two high level opponents in Alistair Overeem (47-19-1) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-3-0). Despite this, he remains ranked #11 at heavyweight. He has fought in both the UFC and Bellator, giving him a bit of an edge when it comes to experience at the top of the sport. Prior to his recent losses he was on a 4-fight win streak in the UFC, with a notable win over former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski (32-20). Training out of the Gile Ribeiro/Noguchi Team, he is almost exclusively known for his striking, mostly utilizing his hands, but can get some power behind his kicks. When it does go to the mat, he’s far more likely to go for ground-and-pound than a submission. Tai Tuivasa has been hot in his last three fights, winning all of them by first round knockout, giving way to his famous “shooey” celebration. Training out of Lions High Performance Centre, he also has a victory over Arlovski, and notably finished Stefan Struve (33-13) and Greg Hardy (7-4). Like Sakai, he rarely initiates grappling exchanges, preferring to use his hands to get the job done, something he has excelled in doing as of late. This fight has even odds, with both fighters sitting at -110. Despite Sakai having the better experience, I like Tuivasa in this fight. Their careers are trending in opposite directions, and I anticipate that to continue. The best bets on this fight would be either Tuivasa moneyline, or under 1.5 rounds.
Picks: Tuivasa -110, Under 1.5Pedro Munhoz vs. Dominick Cruz
Pedro Munhoz: 19-6-0, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.
Dominick Cruz: 23-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
This matchup was one of the fights that had me excited for these prelims. Two excellent fighters, one of which is regularly thrown in the GOAT conversation at bantamweight, that man being Dominick Cruz. Cruz is not far removed from the title, as 4 of his last five fights have been for the belt. He most recently defeated Casey Kenney (16-4-1) following two title fight losses against Henry Cejudo (16-2-0) and Cody Garbrandt (12-4-0) respectively. A legend of the sport, training out of Alliance MMA, Cruz has the ability to strike as well as grapple, utilizing his unique footwork and excellent wrestling. Cruz is slightly more likely to keep it on the feet, but will largely resort to ground-and-pound if he does choose to grapple. Despite a career marred by injuries, Cruz has made the best of it, and still remains in the top ten of the 135 pound division, sitting at number 9. Pedro Munhoz comes in having lost 3 of his last five, but against highly credentialed opponents in current bantamweight “champion” Aljamain Sterling (20-3-0), former UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo (31-7-0), and former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (23-10-1). Despite these losses, Munhoz remains in the top ten at 135, at #8. Training at the excellent American Top Team, Munhoz, like Cruz, has the ability to strike as well as grapple, but uses more of a brawling style in the standup and a BJJ focused ground attack. It seems he has a tendency lately to mostly engage in striking battles, but definitely has the ability to submit opponents. Munhoz opens as a slight favorite at -115, with Cruz landing at -105. This is a very tough fight to pick a winner in, so the best bet on this would be over 2.5 rounds, as in 4 of both fighters last 5 fights, they’ve gone to the judges. If I absolutely had to pick a victor, I’d give a slight edge to Cruz, but I will admit my bias as a huge Cruz fan, so take that with a grain of salt.
Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Cruz -105
Josh Emmett vs Dan Ige
Josh Emmett: 16-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Dan Ige: 15-4-0, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
The final fight of the prelims, this is an excellent way to tee up the pay-per-view. Both men are in the top ten of the featherweight division, with Emmett ranked at #8 and Ige at #9. Josh Emmett comes in after winning 4 of his last 5, 4 of those fights ending via KO/TKO. His last two fights are solid victories over Shane Burgos (14-3-0) and Mirsad Bektic (13-4-0), with the latter being a first round knockout. Training at the acclaimed Team Alpha Male, Emmett is well known for his thunderous striking power and excellent wrestling. While he has largely stuck to the standup in his recent fights, he is fully capable of using his wrestling to control a fight. Emmett isn’t exactly what you’d describe as a “wild” striker, but does have a tendency to throw a lot of power shots, which has presented a problem for his recent opponents. Dan Ige comes into this fight following a tough decision loss to a hallmark of the featherweight division, the “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung (17-6-0). Prior to this loss, he earned a beautiful round one KO of Gavin Tucker (13-2-0), as well as a significant victory over Edson Barboza (22-10-0). Ige typically utilizes his pristine boxing to get the job done, and has ability to grapple, but showed plenty of holes in his ground game in his loss to TKZ. Training at a great camp, Xtreme Couture, Ige has sneaky power for his size, as well as great hand speed. Despite focusing on striking in his recent bouts, I think Emmett’s wrestling can present a real problem for Ige in this fight, and the odds seem to agree with me, with Emmett being a -170 favorite, and Ige being a +145 underdog. Ige has never been finished, and Emmett has only been finished once, so I anticipate seeing the judges in this fight. The best bets on this would be over 2.5 rounds, but I like Emmett moneyline more. Both fighters have big power, so a crazy finish is entirely on the table.
Picks: Over 2.5 Rounds, Emmet -170Main Card
Raulian Paiva vs. Sean O’Malley
Raulian Paiva: 21-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Sean O’Malley: 14-1-0, 10 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.
The first fight of the main card, there is unsurprisingly a lot of hype built around this scrap. O’Malley, despite not being ranked, is one of the most popular fighters in the UFC, while Paiva is a relative unknown (like most of O’Malley’s opponents). Raulian Paiva is coming in on a 3 fight win streak, with victories over other prospects such as Kyler Phillips (9-2-0) and Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-6-0). Despite 3 solid victories lately, he has lost when facing higher level competition, such as Kai Kara-France (22-9-0) and Rogerio Bontorin (17-3-0). Training out of Ronildo Nobre Judo Club, Paiva is willing to engage wherever the fight goes, with both solid grappling and striking, with a slight preference towards the standup, particularly his boxing. Although he has some submissions on his record, I’d be surprised if that’s his main pursuit in this fight. Sean O’Malley is coming in on a two fight win streak, with victories over two not particularly notable opponents in Kris Moutinho (9-5-0) and Thomas Almeida (22-5-0). I’d say the best name on his win record is that of Eddie Wineland (24-15-1). O’Malley has become famous for his wild, kick-focused offense, rarely engaging in grappling exchanges. Training out of the MMA Lab, he has solid hands and excellent kicks, often throwing out crazy spinning attacks and devastating straight punches. Despite his fame, other than Chito Vera, I don’t think O’Malley has truly been tested in the octagon. Unsurprisingly, O’Malley is a decent favorite at -310 with Paiva a +250 underdog. I anticipate this going like other Suga Sean fights, with him controlling the standup and attaining either a Unanimous Decision or knockout. I’d take under 2.5 rounds, as O’Malley is such a big favorite, but I expect the Suga Show to walk away with a victory, so the moneyline isn’t a horrible pick up.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, O’Malley -310Kai Kara-France vs. Cody Garbrandt
Kai Kara-France: 22-9-0, 10 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.
Cody Garbrandt: 12-4-0, 10 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.
One of the most slept on fights of this main card, this is an absolute banger between two high-level strikers. This is Garbrandt’s first flyweight bout, and he is ranked #7 in the bantamweight division, with Kara-France ranked 6 at flyweight. Kai-Kara France is coming into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 fights, most notably a 1st round KO of Rogerio Bontorin (17-3-0). Training out of the excellent City Kickboxing, he is a fantastic striker, able to use all of the 8 limbs (hands, feet, knees, elbows) to get a finish. With three submissions to his name, he does have some decent grappling chops, but I’d be shocked to see this fight go to the ground. Like many flyweight strikers, Kara-France is better known for hand speed as opposed to power. Although this is the biggest name he’s ever faced in the former bantamweight champion, he trains with two current UFC champions in Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski, so he’s no stranger to challenging famous fighters. Cody Garbrandt has lost 4 of his last 5, 2 of which being title fights, but had one of the best knockouts of 2020 against Raphael Assuncao (27-8-0). Training at Team Alpha Male, Garbrandt is known for his explosive power, and aggressive brawling style. He does have solid wrestling, but I don’t anticipate seeing much of it this Saturday. One of his biggest weaknesses is a tendency to fight emotionally, often getting angry and engaging in huge exchanges, many of which haven’t gone his way. Despite this, he’s still an extremely dangerous striker, and I expect him to carry even more power at flyweight. Garbrandt is the favorite at -140, with Kara-France the underdog at +120. I think under 2.5 rounds is practically a given in this bout, but picking a winner is a bit more challenging. With this being Garbrandt’s first fight at 125, I think Kara-France has a chance to catch him off guard with his speed and pick up a victory. I’ll take Kai Kara-France to win, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Cody to walk away with a victory.
Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Kara-France +120Geoff Neal vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Geoff Neal: 13-4-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.
Santiago Ponzinibbio: 29-4-0, 15-3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
The last non-title fight of the main card, this welterweight matchup is an explosive one. Both men are within the top 15 in the 170 pound division, with Ponzinibbio ranked #14 and Neal at #12. Ponzinibbio made his return to fighting in 2021 after 3 years gone due to health complications. He’s won 1 of his two fights this year, being an impressive return to form in a Unanimous Decision victory over prospect Miguel Baeza (10-2-0). His most impressive victory is a KO of welterweight hallmark Neil Magny (25-9-0). Training at American Top Team, Ponzinibbio is best known for his impressive striking and power, using a solid mix of punches and kicks to get the job done. He does has 6 submissions to his name, but none of them came in UFC fights, so while I wouldn’t consider him incapable of grappling, but it’s not his biggest strength. He has a great ability to throw combinations without getting sloppy, and is able to fight at distance as well as in the pocket. Geoff Neal is coming into this bout off of two consecutive losses, those being to Stephen Thompson (16-5-1) and the aforementioned Neil Magny (25-9-0). Neal, training at Fortis MMA, has solid kickboxing and serious power. While he isn’t the most technical striker, he throws a variety of kicks and punches, largely finding finishes using his hands. Despite being slightly undersized for the division, he makes up for that with power. This is another tough one to pick a winner in, with Ponzinibbio being the favorite at -130 and Neal the underdog at +110. I think Ponzinibbio will take it, using more technical striking and outclassing Neal, but Neal is the human definition of “puncher’s chance,” so he’s never really out of a fight. Both men have had 3 of their last five end via finish, but typically make it out of the first round. The safest bet would be over 1.5 rounds, but this fight really is a toss up.
Picks: Ponzinibbio -130, Over 1.5 RoundsAmanda Nunes vs. Julianna Peña
Amanda Nunes: 21-4-0, 13 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.
Julianna Peña: 11-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.
The first of two title fights, this one being for the women’s bantamweight strap. Amanda Nunes is the long-reigning champion, and Peña is ranked at #3 in the women’s bantamweight division. If you don’t know who Amanda Nunes is by now, you’ve been living under a rock. Largely considered the greatest female fighter of all time, Nunes has held the bantamweight title since 2016 and the featherweight title since 2018. Training at American Top Team, Nunes is excellent in practically every facet of the sport. Not only does she have enormous power and vicious boxing, she also has excellent Jiu-Jitsu and wrestling. She can put you out on the feet, or tap you on the ground, and usually, one of the two will happen. Nunes hasn’t lost in 5 years, most notably beating former UFC women’s featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie twice (10-4-0), former UFC and current Bellator women’s featherweight champion Cris Cyborg (25-2-0), and current UFC women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0) twice. Since winning the title, Nunes has been an unstoppable force, defending both of her belts and leaving a trail of destruction in her path. Julianna Peña has won 3 of her last 5 fights, with her most notable wins coming over former UFC women’s flyweight champion Nicco Montano (5-3-0) as well as Sara McMann (12-6-0). Training at Sikjitsu, Peña is best known for her wrestling prowess and submission abilities. She has solid enough striking to set up her grappling, but very much prefers to keep the fight on the mat. This is by far the biggest challenge of her career, as Nunes tends to be for any opponent. Peña has talked a lot of trash coming into this fight, repeatedly claiming that Nunes has been ducking her, and that she will be the best opponent the Lioness has ever faced. This has added a bit of heat to this fight, not that it really matters, as Nunes is the biggest favorite on the card at -800, with Peña being the +550 underdog. Quite frankly, I see no situation where Nunes loses this fight, but she’s such a massive favorite it makes taking her moneyline pointless. I’d take Nunes by KO, and I’m willing to throw a risky pick out there and take under 1.5 rounds. After Nunes dismantled Megan Anderson in about 2 minutes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar outcome.
Picks: Nunes by KO, Under 1.5 RoundsCharles Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier
Charles Oliveira: 31-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 19 Sub.
Dustin Poirier: 28-6-0, 15 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.
The second title fight of the night and the main event, this is a fight with plenty of hype built around it. Two established UFC veterans, both of these fighters are extremely well-versed and skilled. Charles Oliveira is the current UFC lightweight champion, with Dustin Poirier being ranked #1 in the division. Charles Oliveira is one of the most accomplished UFC fighters of all time, holding the all time record for UFC finishes (17), the record for the most submissions (14), and has the second most performance bonuses of all time (17). He’s coming into this fight on a 9 fight win streak, notably defeating Michael Chandler (22-7-0), Tony Ferguson (26-6-0), and Jim Miller (33-16-0). Oliveira trains at the legendary Chute Boxe, and utilizes some of the most advanced grappling in the UFC, proven by his submission record. He also has very underrated striking, which may be less underrated now following his stunning KO of Michael Chandler. Oliveira can really do it all, but he’s at his best when the fight is on the ground. Dustin Poirier comes into this fight after winning 4 of his last 5 fights, beating Conor Mcgregor twice (22-6-0), Max Holloway (23-6-0), and Dan Hooker (21-11-0). Training at American Top Team, Poirier is best known for his excellent boxing, but also is a very solid grappler, particularly in the wrestling department. Opposite to Oliveira, while Poirier can also do it all, he’s at his best when the fight is on the feet. He has the ability to produce a quick knockout, but also can easily go a full 5 rounds. His wrestling should be put on display, as he’ll probably have to defend plenty of takedowns from the grappling ace Oliveira. Surprisingly, Poirier is the favorite at -160, with Oliveira the underdog at +135. I think people are far too quick to count Charles Oliveira out of this fight, just as they did when he fought Chandler. I’m going to make my boldest pick of the card and take Oliveira moneyline, but also there’s a very safe option in over 1.5 rounds. While both have created fast finishes recently, I think this fight sees at least the second round.
Picks: Over 1.5 Rounds, Oliveira +135