UFC 293 Preview

Israel Adesanya cracks Marvin Vettori with a right hand. Credit: MMA Fighting.

This Saturday the UFC returns to Australia with an intriguing card. In the main event, Israel Adesanya defends his title against the always-game Sean Strickland. In the co-main event we’ll see two top 10 heavyweights slug it out with hopes of reigniting their title runs. Preceding this fights are a handful of finishers and debuting fighters all vying to make their name on a main card.

Tyson Pedro vs. Anton Turkalj

Tyson Pedro unloads punches on Ike Villanueva. Credit: The Inner Sanctum.

Light Heavyweight Bout

Tyson Pedro: 9-4-0, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Anton Turkalj: 8-2-0, 5 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Pedro has won two of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over #11 ranked Light Heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5-0) and #13 ranked Middleweight Paul Craig (17-6-1). He is a devastating striker with serious power in everything he throws. He has an excellent arsenal of attacks with particularly damaging head and leg kicks, which he’ll set up with constant feinting and movement. Pedro has great speed for the division and is excellent at using his length, regularly landing damage from distance. While he won’t often initiate grappling exchanges, he is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and possesses a solid submission and takedown game. Training at Lions High Performance Centre, he is patient and technical, never rushing in or overextending on his shots. Pedro has excellent knees and varies his shots, attacking the head and body evenly. While he won’t often put out much volume in terms of strikes, he makes up for it with one-shot knockout power.

Anton Turkalj exchanges punches with Vitor Petrino. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Turkalj has won three of his last five bouts, most recently being a Contender Series victory over Acacio Dos Santos (15-6-0). He is a highly durable grappler willing to engage no matter where the fight goes. Preferring power over volume when striking, he’ll typically throw leg kicks from range before crashing in with punches, usually looking to clinch up. Turkalj has a solid chin and is willing to eat a shot to land one, spending much of his time on the feet brawling in the pocket. Training at GBG MMA, he’ll usually shoot early and has solid clinch takedowns. He transitions quickly on the ground, with particularly fast backtakes, and prefers submissions to ground and pound. Turkalj has great cardio and is willing to work to take it to the mat, landing 11 takedowns in his Contender Series appearance.

Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane

Justin Tafa lands a left hand on Parker Porter. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Heavyweight Bout

Justin Tafa: 6-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Austen Lane: 12-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Tafa has won three of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Parker Porter (14-8-0), Harry Hunsucker (7-6-0), and Juan Adams (10-5-0). With a style reminiscent of his training partner Mark Hunt, he loves to brawl and has one-shot knockout power. He has an excellent chin and constantly throws bombs, often opening combinations with leg kicks. Training at NTG Fight, Tafa is a patient striker who will look for openings but is willing to eat one to land one. He has never been taken down in the UFC or attempted a takedown, so he prefers to keep it on the feet. He has finished all of his wins, and in UFC fights that left the first round, he averaged 80 significant strikes landed. Tafa has shown he has the cardio to go 15 minutes, but two of his three career losses have come by decision, so he’s at his best early on. 

Austen Lane lands a body kick on Richard Jacobi (6-1-1). Credit: Zuffa LLC.

Lane enters this fight technically on a six-fight win streak, with this bout being a rematch of his UFC debut, which ended in a No Contest. Lane is a lengthy striker who opens up with a barrage of kicks before blitzing in to unleash combinations. He’s very explosive, throws everything in combination, and spends much of his time in the cage brawling inside the pocket. Training at Bulldog Boxing, he has solid power in his hands and decent cardio, carrying his punching capacity across 15 minutes. Lane is a former NFL player and has finished all his wins, with only two fights in his career seeing a second round. While he won’t typically engage in grappling exchanges, he will throw heavy ground-and-pound if he finds himself in top position. He has shown an ability to survive off his back and will pursue submissions if given the opportunity.

#10 Manel Kape vs. Felipe Dos Santos

Manel Kape finishes off Ode Osbourne with ground and pound. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Flyweight Bout

Manel Kape: 18-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Felipe Dos Santos: 7-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Kape has won three of his last five fights and holds UFC wins over Ode Osbourne (12-6-0), Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-9-0), and David Dvorak (20-6-0). He is a former Rizin Bantamweight champion and has been facing the best of the best for the last six years of his career. He’s constantly looking to counterstrike, throwing every shot with purpose and deadly accuracy. Kape has excellent distance management, switches stances constantly, and will often blitz in with big shots before returning to range. He has heavy power for Flyweight and doesn’t telegraph anything, often timing his shots when his opponent enters his range. Training at AKA Thailand, he won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges but has a solid submission game and can be dangerous off his back. Kape takes some time to get going, but once he finds his rhythm, he heats up and lets his hands go. 

Felipe Dos Santos squares up inside the cage. Credit: Tapology.

Dos Santos has won four of his last five fights with one no-contest and is making his UFC debut. He is a wild striker who comes out guns blazing and constantly pursues a finish. He’s always moving and throws every shot with power, but he will put out solid volume and is perpetually coming forward. Dos Santos has a substantial arsenal of kicks and loves to throw jumping attacks like jumping switch kicks and Superman punches. He has an excellent chin and spends much of his cage time in the pocket, throwing looping shots and devastating knees. Training at Chute Boxe, he has grappling abilities and a great takedown game but seems more comfortable on the feet. Dos Santos is most dangerous early on and is at his best in a sloppy, drag-out brawl.

#6 Tai Tuivasa vs. #7 Alexander Volkov

Tai Tuivasa goes to finish off Greg Hardy with ground and pound. Credit: ESPN.

Heavyweight Bout

Tai Tuivasa: 15-5-0, 14 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Alexander Volkov: 36-10-0 24 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Tuivasa has found victory in three of his last five outings and holds UFC victories over #10 ranked Heavyweight Derrick Lewis (27-11-0), former UFC Heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski (34-22-0), and Stefan Struve (33-13-0). He is the true embodiment of a brawler, always willing to eat a shot to land one and slug it out in the pocket. He’s more technical than he often appears, staying patient and fighting behind his jab before letting go of some massive right hands. Tuivasa has solid head movement and good distance management but won’t throw much at range before closing the distance. Training at Lions High Performance Centre, he has heavy leg kicks and one-shot knockout power, able to finish the fight from seemingly anywhere at any time. He’s at his most dangerous early, with 12 of his fourteen KOs coming round, only seeing two decisions in his pro career. Tuivasa can land immense damage without much space, particularly elbows and knees. 

Alexander Volkov unloads a right hand on Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Credit: ESPN.

Volkov has won three of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #11 ranked Heavyweight Marcin Tybura (24-8-0), #12 ranked Heavyweight Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-5-0), and #13 ranked Heavyweight Alexandr Romanov (17-2-0). He is a lengthy, technical striker who can land damage at range or inside. He has solid footwork and head movement, tending to skirt along the outside of the cage and picking his opponents apart. Volkov is highly accurate and throws everything with purpose, always keeping his shots tight and straight. His best weapons are his front kick and right straight, which he’s constantly looking to set up. Training with Strela Team, he’s powerful inside the clinch and uses his length very well, making him particularly hard to take down. Volkov possesses classic heavyweight cardio; he keeps his power across all 15 minutes, but his pace decreases as the fight continues. 

(C) Israel Adesanya vs. #5 Sean Strickland

Middleweight Title Bout

Israel Adesanya lands a devastating knee on Robert Whittaker. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Israel Adesanya: 24-2-0, 16 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Sean Strickland: 27-5-0, 11 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Adesanya has found victory in 4 of his last five outings and has wins over #2 ranked Middleweight Robert Whittaker (25-7-0),  #3 ranked Middleweight Jared Cannonier (17-6-0), and #3 ranked Light Heavyweight Alex Pereira (8-2-0). He’s one of the best technical strikers in MMA and has proven to be virtually unstoppable on the feet. Able to throw with power and volume, he averaged about 84 significant strikes landed in his last five fights. Adesanya is elusive and rarely takes substantial damage, always moving and keeping his head off the centerline. Training at City Kickboxing, he has excellent footwork and can fight both in the center of the octagon or slide along the outside. He has a tremendous variety of kicks and does a great job of varying his attacks, making it very hard to tell what he’ll throw next and where. Adesanya’s last ten fights have been for gold, making him not only prepared for five rounds but highly comfortable in the spotlight.

Sean Strickland pieces up Abus Magomedov. Credit: MMA Mania.

Strickland has won three of his last five fights, with wins over #9 ranked Middleweight Jack Hermansson (23–8-0), #12 ranked Middleweight Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0), and Uriah Hall (18-11-0). He is best known for his striking prowess and lack of a filter in interviews. While he prefers to keep the fight standing, he often mixes some grappling with his striking, averaging just over one takedown per 15 minutes. Strickland also has solid takedown defense, defending 85% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He rarely pursues submissions, typically resorting to ground-and-pound when on top. He uses a very upright boxing style on the feet, constantly moving forward and throwing combinations. Training at Millenia MMA, Strickland tries to keep his opponent on the back foot as much as possible to open up opportunities to land combinations, especially his one-two. 

Best Bets

Justin Tafa to win by KO/TKO: I might as well not mince words, I think Austen Lane is a bit of a can. Not that Tafa is a worldbeater by any means, but if you’re going to brawl with Justin Tafa, you better have solid hands and an even more solid chin. I don’t think Lane has either of those, and I think Tafa will put him away.

Tuivasa vs. Volkov to Not Go the Distance: With 38 knockouts between the two of them and very contrasting styles, it would be a shock to see this go to the judges. Regardless of who wins this fight, it won’t be by decision.

Israel Adesanya by KO/TKO: As much as I and everyone else would enjoy an upset, I just don’t see it happening. While I think Strickland is tough enough to go five rounds, I think Adesanya is fired up and looking for a finish this weekend after all of Strickland’s antics this fight week.

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac Preview

Ciryl Gane blasts Tai Tuivasa with a right hand. Credit: MMA Fighting.

The UFC makes its second trip to Paris this Saturday, with yet another card headlined by Heavyweight Ciryl Gane, this time taking on Serghei Spivac in an excellent matchup of contrasting styles. In the co-main event, former UFC Women’s Strawweight champion Rose Namajunas comes up to Flyweight for the first time to facing surging contender Manon Fiorot. To compliment these bouts is a bevy of debuting fighters and established scrappers, all vying to make a name for themselves on the biggest stage in MMA.

Morgan Charrière vs. Manolo Zecchini

Morgan Charrière lands a body kick on Perry Goodwin. Credit: La Sueur.

Featherweight Bout

Morgan Charrière: 18-9-1, 10 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Manolo Zecchini: 11-3-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Charrière has won three of his last five bouts and making his UFC debut. A bit of an internet celebrity in France, he has accumulated a solid following and is a former Cage Warriors Featherweight champion. Training with Team Chapa Quente, he’s a technical striker with substantial power in his hands and brutal leg kicks. Charrière has excellent footwork and is very defensively sound, never taking much damage and always keeping his head off the centerline. He will remain calm and technical throughout and won’t get pulled into dogfights, typically forcing his opponents to the outside and picking them apart. On the ground, he has great top control and heavy ground and pound, particularly elbows. Charrière has gone five rounds multiple times in his career and has great cardio, often increasing his pace as the fight continues.

Manolo Zecchini lands a head kick on Sufiev Karomatullo. Credit: MMA UK.

Zecchini has found victory in four of his last five outings and is also making his UFC debut. An explosive striker, he’s constantly moving and pressing forward and is willing to eat a shot to land one. He’s always pursuing a finish, providing his opponent with a steady dose of looping shots and heavy leg kicks. Despite his aggression, Zecchini is elusive and has excellent distance management, but he can sometimes get pulled into brawls. Training at Jackson-Wink MMA, his kicks are his best weapons, often damaging his opponent from range before blitzing in to throw combinations. He won’t often initiate grappling exchanges but has shown great takedown defense and solid clinch control. Zecchini has nine first-round finishes and has only gone to two decisions, fighting with a true “kill or be killed” attitude. 

William Gomis vs. Yanis Ghemmouri

William Gomis lands a kick on Jarno Errens. Credit: Flipboard.

Featherweight Bout

William Gomis: 12-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Yanis Ghemmouri: 12-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Gomis has won 11 straight bouts since 2016 and has UFC victories over Jarno Errens (13-5-1) and Francis Marshall (7-2-0). He’s a patient, technical striker with a diverse kicking game. He won’t overwhelm his opponent with movement or volume, instead using accuracy and power to land damage. Training at MMA Factory, he’ll often end combinations with kicks and does an excellent job of moving in and out of the pocket without eating shots. He’s a solid wrestler, has fantastic takedown timing, and is very strong in the clinch. When in top position, he’s patient and won’t put himself in dangerous spots, but he has good pressure and is hard to shake off. Gomis is defensively sound everywhere, having defended 81% of the strikes and 71% of the takedowns attempted on him. 

Yanis Ghemmouri lands a head kick on Bair Shtepin. Credit: La Sueur.

Ghemmouri is on a nine-fight win streak dating back to 2016, with this being his UFC debut. A former champion kickboxer in France, he’s a powerful, technical striker who loves to counterstrike. Although he doesn’t move much laterally, he constantly switches stances and tends to lean back to avoid shots before returning with hooks. Ghemmouri favors power to volume, throwing lots of fast, looping shots and doing a lot of damage with his lead hand. Training with the Bulgarian Top Team, he has a solid takedown game but will panic wrestle when hurt, sometimes putting himself in bad spots. When on top, he has excellent pressure and lethal chokes, holding a standing guillotine win on his record. Ghemmouri’s pace will increase as the fight continues, constantly switching his stance and attacking from different angles. 

#9 Volkan Oezdemir vs. Bogdan Guskov

Volkan Oezdemir drops Jimi Manuwa with a left hand. Credit: Bleacher Report.

Light Heavyweight Bout

Volkan Oezdemir: 18-7-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Bogdan Guskov: 14-2-0, 12 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Oezdemir has won two of his last five fights and holds victories over #13 ranked Middleweight Paul Craig (17-6-1), #4 ranked Light Heavyweight Aleksander Rakic (14-3-0), and Ovince Saint Preux (26-17-0). He has a background in kickboxing and held a 5-0 record professionally before entering MMA, which shows in his style. While he primarily uses his hands and fights in the pocket, he has powerful kicks and particularly devastating leg kicks. Despite his phonebox-fighting style, Oezdemir stays relatively composed, usually returning to the center of the octagon and resetting after attacking. Training at Allstars Training Center, he has a solid chin and is willing to eat a shot to land one, but he also possesses good head movement. He occasionally initiates grappling exchanges, primarily preferring to remain on the feet, and has a takedown defense percentage of 86% in his UFC career. With 12 finishes in the first round, Oezdemir earned the nickname “No Time” and is at his most dangerous early on.

Bogdan Guskov lands a right hand on Alireza Vafaei. Credit: La Sueur.

Guskov has won four of his last five bouts and is making his UFC debut. He’s a heavy-handed striker who comes out guns blazing. He has heavy forward pressure and always looks for a knockout, throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions. Training at GOR MMA, Guskov will throw the occasional kick but does most of his damage in the pocket, fighting in a phonebooth. He has power in both hands but is seemingly always looking to set up his right, constantly unleashing devastating overhands. He has 11 finishes in the first round and has only gone to one decision, as well as only seeing the third round twice in his career. Guskov tends to headhunt and is willing to eat a shot to land one, but he has good head movement and darts in and out of the pocket very quickly.

Benoit Saint Denis vs. Thiago Moises

Benoit Saint Denis damages Ismael Bonfim from his back. Credit: MMA Mania.

Lightweight Bout

Benoit Saint Denis: 11-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Thiago Moises: 17-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Saint-Denis has won four of his last five outings, holding UFC wins over Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0), Niklas Stolze (12-6-0), and Gabriel Miranda (16-6-0). He’s constantly pressuring forward on the feet, unleashing heavy kicks and throwing bombs. He throws everything with fight-ending intentions, often using his striking to get inside and pursue takedowns. He is an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in Judo, a brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and a great variety of submissions on his record. Training at Woirin Team Elite, Saint-Denis typically secures takedowns quickly and has heavy top control, always choosing position over submission and rarely putting himself in risky spots. Whether on the feet or the mat, he’s always trying to end the fight and is always dangerous. A decorated veteran and former Special Forces paratrooper, he’s incredibly tough and has possibly the best chin in the lightweight division.

Thiago Moises cracks Bobby Green with a jab. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Moises has won three of his last five outings and holds UFC victories over Michael Johnson (22-19-0), Bobby Green (30-14-1), and Alex Hernandez (14-6-0). He’s a slick grappler with excellent wrestling and dangerous submissions. Training at American Top Team, he has solid power in his hands and kicks but won’t often waste much time before shooting for a takedown. Moises is very active on the ground, has excellent top pressure, and advances position very quickly. He’s intelligent with his ground and pound, only throwing when he’s postured up and never getting too wild. He does an excellent job of getting to his opponent’s back, where he’s most dangerous, and finds submissions, especially chokes, with lightning speed. Moises tends to absorb more damage than he dishes out, making it imperative for him to find early takedowns. 

#3 (FYW) Manon Fiorot vs. #2 (STW) Rose Namajunas

Manon Fiorot lands a stiff right hand on Mayra Bueno Silva. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Manon Fiorot: 10-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Rose Namajunas: 12-5-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Fiorot is on a 10-fight win streak, with her UFC victories coming over #3 ranked Bantamweight Mayra Bueno Silva (11-2-1), #5 ranked Flyweight Kaitlyn Chookagian (18-5-0), and #9 ranked Flyweight Jennifer Maia (21-9-1). She is an efficient, karate-style fighter with serious power and speed. She uses her lead leg excellently, constantly throwing side and head kicks with no tell. Fiorot is in perpetual motion and has solid output, but is very accurate and throws everything purposefully. Training with the Boxing Squad, she has excellent footwork and effortlessly moves in and out of the pocket. On average, she lands more than double the strikes she absorbs and has defended 71% of the strikes attempted on her in the UFC. Fiorot has landed at least one takedown in all of her UFC wins, has excellent wrestling, and will rain down devastating ground and pound when on top.

Rose Namajunas knocks out Weili Zhang with a head kick. Credit: ESPN.

Namajunas has won three of her last five outings and has wins over former UFC Strawweight champions Jessica Andrade (24-12-0), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-5-0), and Zhang Weili (24-3-0). She’s a well-rounded fighter with a solid kickboxing game and excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Training at 303 Training Center, she has sneaky power, a sturdy chin, and has proven her ability to go five rounds without slowing. Holding black belts in both Taekwondo and Karate, Namajunas has very educated feet and crisp boxing. Averaging nearly two takedowns landed per 15 minutes, she is willing to engage in grappling exchanges and has great top control to complement her excellent submission game. Six of her last seven bouts have been for titles against some of the fiercest competition in the sport, making her prepared for nearly anything. This will be Namajunas’ first venture to Flyweight after spending her whole career at Strawweight. 

#2 Ciryl Gane vs. #7 Serghei Spivac

Ciryl Gane lands a big right hand on Alexander Volkov. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Heavyweight Bout

Ciryl Gane: 11-2-0, 5 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Serghei Spivac: 16-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Ciryl Gane has won three of his last five bouts, with wins over #8 ranked Alexander Volkov (36-10-0), #6 ranked Tai Tuivasa (15-5-0), and an interim Heavyweight title win over #10 ranked Derrick Lewis (27-11-0). He is one of the most technical strikers ever seen in the Heavyweight division, using efficient, brutal Muay Thai to damage his opponents. Training at MMA Factory, he has an excellent arsenal of attacks, all of which he can throw with power and do severe damage. While Gane has become known for his striking, he also has solid grappling, holding two submission wins in the UFC, including a heel hook. He’s a well-rounded grappler with solid takedowns and top control who can do significant damage with his ground and pound or turn to his submission game. He’s willing to exchange in the pocket but is also excellent at range, throwing plenty of high and low kicks and crisp combinations with his hands. The first significant French star to break through in the UFC, Gane will have the crowd behind him come Saturday.

Serghei Spivac applies a rear naked choke to Augusto Sakai. Credit: Action Network.

Spivac has won four of his last five fights and has UFC victories over #10 ranked Heavyweight Derrick Lewis (27-11-0), Aleksei Oleinik (60-17-1), and Carlos Felipe (12-2-0). He’s a powerful wrestler with brutal ground and pound and excellent top control. He’ll usually shoot in early, more often than not earning the takedown, having landed at least three takedowns in all his UFC wins but one. Spivac rarely leaves fights up to the judges, with ten first-round finishes in his career and seven of his ten bouts in the promotion not going the distance. Training with the Polar Bear Team, he has a diverse submission game but will look to land ground and pound before chasing a submission. He’s always looking to land damage on the ground but won’t force anything, being more than willing to hold half guard and work from there. While Spivac usually won’t spend much time on the feet, he has heavy hands and will throw right overhands until closing the distance and pursuing takedowns. 

Best Bets

V. Oezdemir vs. B. Guskov to Not Go the Distance: Both men could benefit massively from a knockout here; Oezdemir needs a solid win to turn this recent skid around, and Guskov would firmly establish himself with a win over a veteran. Both have a plethora of first-round finishes, and I expect a high pace slugfest.

Benoit Saint Denis by Finish: Saint Denis is riding a huge wave of momentum following his massive upset victory over Ismael Bonfim. Combine that with a French crowd fully behind him and an opponent who tends to get overwhelmed on the feet, and I think it’s a perfect recipe for a finish victory.

Ciryl Gane by KO/TKO: While plenty of people hesitate to bet on Gane after Jon Jones destroyed him, they don’t need to be. While he doesn’t usually face grapplers, this is a big jump down from the guys he has faced lately. Not that Spivac isn’t a solid fighter, but he certainly isn’t Jon Jones or Francis Ngannou. I expect a big bounce-back victory here for Gane in front of his home crowd.

UFC 292 Preview

Sean O’Malley lands a stiff right hand on Kris Moutinho. Credit: MTN Sports.

This Saturday, a big-time pay-per-view hits the TD Garden in Boston with two title fights at the top. Two divisive figures, Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley, face off for the Bantamweight strap in a heavily anticipated matchup. In the co-main event, two heavy-handed scrappers, Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos, fight for the women’s Strawweight title. Preceding them is a night filled with top contenders and rising stars, making for an excellent event. Let’s take a look at this weekend’s main card.

#6 Marlon Vera vs. #10 Pedro Munhoz

Marlon Vera lands a devastating head kick on Dominick Cruz. Credit: MMA Mania.

Bantamweight Bout

Marlon Vera: 20-8-1, 8 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Pedro Munhoz: 20-7-0, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Vera has won four of his last five fights, and has wins over former UFC Lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (23-11-1), former UFC Bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz (24-4-0), and #2 ranked Bantamweight Sean O’Malley (16-1-0). Vera is an experienced veteran with a diverse striking game and a granite chin. In his last five fights, he has absorbed, on average, about 134 significant strikes and 159 total strikes; something made utterly absurd by the fact that he won four of those bouts. He gets better as the fight continues and can land damage inside or at range, with some particularly dangerous clinch striking. Vera stays technical across five rounds and regularly switches stances, holding power in both hands but never telegraphing or loading up. He supplies his opponent with a constant dose of kicks, constantly throwing various attacks with his legs, all with heavy power. He has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is excellent in top position, possessing some brutal ground and pound. Vera has dangerous BJJ and can submit people, but he has become more of a striker in recent years. 

Pedro Munhoz submits Rob Font with a guillotine choke. Credit: MMA Mania.

Munhoz has wins in two of his last five outings with one no-contest and has wins over former UFC Bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt (13-5-0), #7 ranked Bantamweight Rob Font (20-7-0), and #15 ranked Bantamweight Chris Gutierrez (19-4-2). He is a well-rounded fighter with devastating power in his hands and excellent BJJ. He throws every shot with power, often dipping his head to unleash brutal overhands. Munhoz is constantly coming forward and is fantastic at controlling the center of the octagon. Training at American Top Team, he does a great job mixing in kicks without telegraphing, often throwing numerous heavy low kicks. Holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a brown belt in Judo, he’s very dangerous on the ground. Munhoz has heavy top control, devastating ground and pound, and excellent submissions. 

Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Mario Bautista

Da’Mon Blackshear submits Jose Johnson with the just the third-ever twister in UFC history. Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Bantamweight Bout

Da’Mon Blackshear: 14-5-1, 2 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Mario Bautista: 12-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Blackshear has victories in three of his last five outings with one draw and has UFC wins over Luan Lacerda (12-3-0) and Jose Johnson (15-8-0). He’s making a record-tying 7-day turnaround, fighting on short notice this Saturday after pulling off just the third twister submission in UFC history last week. He’s a technical striker who does a lot of work with his lead hand and leg, throwing a bevy of jabs, uppercuts, and front kicks. Blackshear has great clinch striking and throws everything in combination, preferring volume over power when it comes to punching. Training at KO Zone, he has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is averaging nearly two takedowns per fifteen minutes in the UFC. He’s visibly calm and experienced on the ground and has a solid wrestling game, able to land takedowns in open space. Blackshear is excellent at executing back takes and has a dangerous submission game if the opportunity presents itself.

Mario Bautista works to secure a rear naked choke against Guido Cannetti. Credit: MMA Mania.

Bautista has won four of his last five fights and has wins over Miles Johns (13-2-0), Brian Kelleher (24-14-0), and Benito Lopez (10-2-0). He’s incredibly quick and dangerous on the feet, able to easily move in and out of the pocket. He throws everything with power, keeps his punches tight and technical, and attacks the head and body evenly. Training at the MMA Lab, Bautista always comes forward, throwing combinations and typically a steady flow of low kicks. He’s averaging nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed 68% of the takedowns he’s attempted, showing his excellent and efficient wrestling. He’s as quick on the ground as on the feet, transitioning and passing at lightning speed. Bautista has heavy top pressure and will find submissions in the blink of an eye, winning his last three appearances by first-round submission. 

#11 Neil Magny vs. #13 Ian Garry

Neil Magny performs a takedown on Daniel Rodriguez. Credit: MMA Mania.

Welterweight Bout

Neil Magny: 28-11-0, 7 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Ian Garry: 12-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Magny has won three of his last five fights and has wins over former UFC Welterweight champions Robbie Lawler (29-16-0) and Johny Hendricks (18-8-0), as well as #8 ranked Welterweight Geoff Neal (15-4-0). He is in his 10th year in the promotion, and his experience shows in the cage, as he’s seemingly comfortable everywhere. He’s tall for the division and uses it well, staying at distance on the feet and picking his opponents apart with his punches. Magny’s best weapon is his cardio; he can and has gone 25 minutes and always pushes a heavy pace, constantly touching up his opponents or working for takedowns. Training at Elevation Fight Team, he is excellent at using his length inside the clinch, often landing knees and elbows and scoring takedowns. Averaging over two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, his most straightforward path to victory is to take it to the mat, which he usually does. Magny stays technical across the entire fight, never overexerting himself or putting himself in significant danger.

Ian Garry lands a head kick on Daniel Rodriguez. Credit: TalkSport.

Garry is undefeated and has UFC victories over Daniel Rodriguez (17-4-0), Song Kenan (18-7-0), and Gabe Green (11-5-0). He’s an excellent striker with a very fluid style, constantly moving and bouncing on his feet with an almost karate-like stance. He’s highly accurate, having landed 55% of the strikes he has attempted in the UFC, and remains patient, always looking for openings. Garry fights behind his jab and has excellent distance management, typically controlling the center of the cage and forcing his opponent to the outside. He has a deadly kicking arsenal and uses them to do significant damage at range, never telegraphing and constantly mixing kicks into punch combinations. Training at Kill Cliff FC, he holds a black belt in Judo and has solid takedown defense but rarely initiates grappling exchanges. Garry benefits from a slower pace, technical fight, having never been dragged into a knockdown, drag-out brawl. 

(C) Zhang Weili vs. #5 Amanda Lemos

Women’s Strawweight Title Bout

Zhang Weili submits Carla Esparza with a rear naked choke to win the Strawweight title. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Zhang Weili: 23-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Amanda Lemos: 13-2-1, 8 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Weili has found victory in three of her last five outings and has wins over former UFC champions Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-5-0) and Jessica Andrade (24-12-0), as well as #10 ranked strawweight Tecia Torres (13-6-0). Weili pushes a serious pace, both on the feet and the ground, and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. Weili is arguably the most powerful puncher in the division, made even more hazardous by her accuracy and ability to stay technical while still throwing bombs. Training at Fight Ready, Weili varies her strikes well, attacking both the head and body and mixing kicks into combinations. She is willing to grapple, averaging over two takedowns landed per fight, and will immediately start punching away if she gets on top of her opponent. Like she does on the feet, Weili always looks for the finish on the mat, transitioning quickly and throwing devastating ground and pound. She has a brown belt in BJJ and won her last bout via rear naked choke, so she has submission ability but is more likely to try to drive her opponent’s head through the canvas.

Amanda Lemos submits Michelle Waterson-Gomez with a guillotine choke. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Lemos has won four of her last five fights, with wins over #9 ranked Strawweight Marina Rodriguez (16-3-2), #13 ranked Strawweight Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-11-0), and Montserrat Conejo-Ruiz (10-3-0). Lemos is a knockout artist, having eight first-round finishes in her career, with three coming in the UFC. She has crazy power for the division in both hands and has knocked people out with her jab. Lemos won’t push a crazy pace on the feet, making up for volume with power and accuracy, landing at a 57% accuracy rate. Training at Marajo Brothers Team, Lemos is at her best when she’s controlling the center of the octagon and pressuring her opponent, throwing plenty of devastating front kicks and leg kicks when at distance. She averages just over one takedown landed per 15 minutes in the UFC and has shown a slick submission game, particularly her guillotine. If she does end up in top position, she’ll often rain down ground and pound until securing a finish.

(C) Aljamain Sterling vs. #2 Sean O’Malley

Aljamain Sterling rains down ground and pound on Petr Yan. Credit: MMA Mania.

Bantamweight Title Bout

Aljamain Sterling: 23-3-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Sean O’Malley: 16-1-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Sterling comes into this fight with a nine-fight winning streak, with wins over former UFC bantamweight champion Petr Yan twice (16-5-0), former UFC double champion Henry Cejudo (16-3-0), and #4 ranked bantamweight Cory Sandhagen (17-4-0). Sterling is an excellent grappler, possessing fantastic wrestling and a lethal submission game. Sterling has smothering top control, often using ground and pound to set up his submission attempts. To back up his grappling, Sterling has solid kickboxing on the feet, with great speed in both his hands and his kicks. Sterling has the cardio to push a furious pace for all 25 minutes, whether on the feet or the ground, averaging about 74 significant strikes landed in his last five fights. Training at Serra-Longo Fight Team, Sterling averages two takedowns landed per 15 minutes, along with about one submission attempt, so his most accessible path to victory is rather apparent. 

Sean O’Malley finishes Jose Quinonez with ground and pound. Credit: Zuffa LLC.

O’Malley has won 4 of his last five outings with one no-contest and has wins over former UFC Bantamweight champion Petr Yan (16-5-0), Raulian Paiva (21-5-0), and Thomas Almeida (22-5-0). O’Malley is known for his wild striking style, throwing out a variety of spinning and flying kicks seemingly at will. Averaging over seven significant strikes landed per minute, O’Malley is always pursuing a finish, holding six KO victories in the UFC. O’Malley rarely engages in grappling exchanges, preferring to stay at range and pick at his opponent with long punches and kicks. Beyond his arsenal of flashy attacks, his most dangerous weapon are his straight punches, often putting them at the end of combinations and regularly resulting in knockdowns or knockouts (see O’Malley vs Wineland). O’Malley has had a meteoric rise to the title, with only one significant test in Petr Yan on his journey to the belt. 

Best Bets

Blackshear vs. Bautista to Not Go the Distance: This one is pretty cut and dry; Blackshear is fighting on a week’s notice coming off two consecutive finishes, while Bautista has finished his last three fights in the first round. I’d be utterly shocked to see this one go to the judges.

Ian Garry by KO/TKO: Although I’m by no means the biggest fan of Ian Garry, I do believe he should finish Magny, and relatively quickly. Magny is his toughest test so far, but if Garry can keep it on the feet, it should be a foregone conclusion.

Zhang Weili by Finish: Weili is truly one of the most vicious, well-rounded fighters in all of MMA, and I don’t believe Lemos has faced anywhere near this level of competition before. Besides Marina Rodriguez, Lemos really hasn’t been faced with top-level competition in the UFC, and I think Weili makes easy work of her.

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos

Vicente Luque cracks Mike Perry with a left hand. Credit: MMA Fighting.

This weekend, two well-rounded Welterweights square off in the octagon. Preceding them is a main card packed with future contenders and consistent finishers. Let’s take a look at this weekend’s main card.

Josh Fremd vs. Jamie Pickett

Josh Fremd submits Sedriques Dumas with a guillotine choke. Credit: Zuffa LLC.

Middleweight Bout

Josh Fremd: 10-4-0, 4 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Jamie Pickett: 13-9-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Fremd has won three of his last five bouts, with his sole UFC victory coming over Sedriques Dumas (8-1-0). He is a patient boxer who fights behind his jab and picks his shots. He has heavy kicks but often throws them naked, not typically putting them in combinations. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, Fremd’s best weapon is his left hand, often damaging his opponent with jabs and lead hooks. While he fights at a relatively slow pace, he does pick up his volume and urgency as the fight goes on, making him more dangerous the longer a fight goes for. He is willing to grapple and has solid offensive wrestling, able to land takedowns in open space and along the fence. Fremd isn’t too aggressive on top, focusing on advancing his position instead of doing much damage. He has the power to finish a fight, but his tendency to throw single shots often works against him. 

Jamie Pickett blasts Joe Holmes with a left hand. Credit: Cageside Press.

Pickett has victories in two of his last five bouts, with his UFC victories coming over Joseph Holmes (8-4-0) and Laureano Staropoli (12-5-0). He often comes out slow, taking time to find his range and timing before engaging. He primarily throws straights, usually only throwing hooks when he’s in the pocket, and often blitzes forward with big combinations. Pickett has solid cardio, picking up the pace in the later stages of the fight when his opponent begins to fade. He is willing to grapple but mainly seems to do so when he’s losing the striking battle and is more than keen to clinch against the cage for long periods. Training at Port City Sports Performance, he is a lengthy striker who’s at his best when controlling the center of the octagon and using his reach. “The Night Wolf” has a solid arsenal of kicks, particularly at range, but favors his hands more, often throwing out naked kicks with no setup.

A.J. Dobson vs. Tafon Nchukwi

A.J. Dobson lands a right hand on Jacob Malkoun. Credit: Zuffa LLC.

Middleweight Bout

AJ Dobson: 6-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Tafon Nchukwi: 6-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Dobson has won three of his last five fights with a win on Dana White’s Contender Series over Hashem Arkhagha (6-1-0). He’s a well-rounded fighter who comes out guns blazing, often exchanging strikes on the inside or shooting for a takedown at the start. On the feet, he has a very upright stance and throws a lot of single shots with good power and speed in his hands. Dobson remains technical across the fight, keeping his shots straight and tight and using his length well. His best route to victory is through his wrestling, currently holding 80% takedown accuracy in the UFC and wild, heavy ground and pound. He has excellent top control and is very urgent on top, constantly pursuing a finish. Dobson has good cardio and can push a heavy pace across 15 minutes. 

Tafon Nchukwi lands a body kick on Azamat Murzakanov. Credit: Doc’s Sports

Nchukwi has wins in two of his last five outings, with UFC victories over Mike Rodriguez (12-7-0) and Jamie Pickett (13-9-0). He’s an explosive, powerful striker who throws every shot with fight-ending intentions. He won’t spend much time at range, landing most of his damage with punches on the inside. Nchukwi has serious power in both hands and constantly throws bombs, supplying his opponent with a steady dose of hooks. He’s extremely dangerous in the clinch, able to land damage and generate significant power from in close. He also has solid wrestling and great takedowns, typically landing devastating ground and pound when on top. Nchukwi has fought at both Middleweight and Light Heavyweight in the UFC, showing that his power translates to both divisions.

Polyana Viana vs. Iasmin Lucindo

Polyana Viana locks in a submission on Mallory Martin. Credit: ESPN.

Women’s Strawweight Bout

Polyana Viana: 13-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Iasmin Lucindo: 14-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Viana has won three of her last five fights and has UFC victories over Jinh Yu Frey (11-9-0), Mallory Martin (7-5-0), and Emily Whitmire (4-5-0). She’s at her most dangerous early on and has scored four first-round finishes in her promotional tenure. She’s a bit flat-footed on the feet but has solid power, speed, and a devastating right straight. Viana throws everything in combination and is willing to engage on the inside. She has a hazardous submission game and is very comfortable off her back, often finding submissions when taken down by her opponent. She transitions extremely quickly and never telegraphs her moves, seemingly finding submissions out of thin air. Viana constantly pursues a finish on the ground and often throws vicious elbows until securing a submission.

Iasmin Lucindo lands a right hand on Yazmin Jauregui. Credit: Zuffa LLC.

Lucindo has victories in four of her last five appearances, with her lone UFC victory coming over Brogan Walker (8-4-0). She’s an aggressive striker, always coming forward, pursuing a knockout. She’s very dangerous on the inside and is willing to eat one to land one, often tending to headhunt. Lucindo throws everything in combination and with brutal power, dealing out most of her damage with her punches. She went professional at 14, making her impressively experienced for a 21-year-old. While she’s at her best holding the center and controlling the pace, she has grappling abilities and a solid takedown game. Although primarily a boxer, Lucindo sometimes gets flashy, throwing spinning kicks and backfists. 

#13 (LHW) Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. #14 (HW) Chris Daukaus

Khalil Rountree Jr. throws a jab at Karl Roberson. Credit: MyMMANews

Light Heavyweight Bout

Khalil Rountree Jr.: 12-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Chris Daukaus: 12-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Rountree has won three of his last five outings and has victories over #15 ranked Light Heavyweight Dustin Jacoby (19-7-1), Eryk Anders (15-8-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (15-5-0). He scored the only oblique kick finish in UFC history when he obliterated Bukauskas’ knee in 2021. He has a background in Muay Thai, but his best weapons are his hands. Rountree will regularly explode forward, swinging massive looping hooks and throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions. Training at Syndicate MMA, he can fight a slower, more technical fight despite his tendency to get wild, but he can gas himself out sometimes in his search for a finish. He’s at his best early on in a fight and when he can control the center of the octagon, using his forward pressure and crazy power to damage his opponents. Rountree has never landed a takedown in the UFC and rarely initiates grappling exchanges.

Chris Daukaus rocks Shamil Abdurakhimov with a hook. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Daukaus has victories in two of his last five fights and holds wins over Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-8-0), Aleksei Oleinik (60-17-1), and Rodrigo Nascimento (10-1-0). Training out of Martinez BJJ, he possesses excellent speed for a heavyweight, using his crisp boxing to overwhelm his opponents with volume and power. He rarely takes the fight to the mat but possesses solid clinch work, a black belt in BJJ, and good defensive wrestling. Daukaus, unlike many heavyweights, relies on his output instead of his strength to get finishes. He throws everything in combination and is constantly coming forward, looking for a finish. He won’t throw many kicks, often spending much of his cage-time fighting in a phone booth. Daukaus is willing to eat one to land one and loves to brawl, but this hasn’t been the best strategy lately, with three KO losses in his last three fights.

Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu

Cub Swanson lands ground and pound on Daniel Pineda. Credit: ESPN.

Featherweight Bout

Cub Swanson: 28-13-0, 13 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Hakeem Dawodu: 13-3-1, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Cub Swanson comes into this fight with three wins in his last five fights, with notable victories over #1 ranked Lightweight Charles Oliveira (32-8-0),  #3 ranked Lightweight Dustin Poirier (28-7-0), and Darren Elkins (28-11-0). Training at Joel Diaz Training Camp, he is a UFC mainstay supplying fans with exciting fights for nearly two decades. He’s an excellent striker known for throwing thunderous, looping hooks, devastating leg kicks, and constant forward motion. Swanson will often charge forward to throw big combos, mainly hooks, and straights, but also has a great kicking game and will throw various attacks with his legs. “Killer” Cub also has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and will occasionally mix in wrestling, but he has been submitted seven times in his career and will mostly keep the fight standing. 

Hakeem Dawodu lands a body kick on Zubaira Tukhugov. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Dawodu has won three of his last five bouts, with his best wins coming over Michael Trizano (11-3-0), Zubaira Tukhugov (20-6-1), and Julio Arce (18-6-0). He is an excellent counter-striker, utilizing a sharp kickboxing style to damage his opponents. He does a great job mixing up his strikes, evenly attacking the head, legs, and body with various punches and kicks. Training at Champion’s Creed MMA, Dawodu possesses one of the more impressive kicking arsenals I’ve seen, particularly with his low kicks, attacking from different angles to deal severe damage to the legs and body. He occasionally throws flashy attacks, but he has excellent fundamentals and keeps his striking technical throughout the entire fight. “Mean” has struggled on the ground in the past, getting taken down nine times by Movsar Evloev (17-0-0), and has no interest in taking the fight to the mat, only clinching when he’s hurt. 

#10 (WW) Vicente Luque vs. #9 (LW) Rafael Dos Anjos

Vicente Luque submits Tyron Woodley. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Welterweight Bout

Vicente Luque: 21-9-1, 11 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Rafael Dos Anjos: 32-14-0, 5 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.

Luque has found victory in three of his last five bouts and holds wins over former UFC Welterweight champion Tyron Woodley (19-7-1), #3 ranked Welterweight Belal Muhammad (23-3-0), and #12 ranked Lightweight Jalin Turner (13-7-0). He is a heavy-handed striker who throws everything with power while remaining accurate. He fights behind his jab and throws everything with purpose, never telegraphing shots or wasting energy. Luque has excellent low kicks and does a great job mixing them into combinations. He’s able to lead the dance or counter strike but loves to brawl and will eat a shot to land one. He holds black belts in BJJ and Luta Livre and has extremely dangerous chokes. Although Luque won’t often chase takedowns, he regularly finds himself in top position due to knockdowns. 

Rafael Dos Anjos lands an elbow on Renato Moicano. Credit: MMA Fighting.

Dos Anjos has won three of his last five fights and has wins over former UFC Welterweight champion Robbie Lawler (30-16-0) and former UFC Lightweight champions Anthony Pettis (25-14-0) and Benson Henderson (30-12-0). A former UFC Lightweight champion himself, he has been in the UFC since 2008 and is one of the most experienced veterans in the sport. He has heavy hands and kicks on the feet and is constantly pressuring forward. Dos Anjos is very technical and accurate and often uses his striking to set up his grappling. Averaging about two takedowns landed per fifteen minutes, he has excellent timing and usually gets his opponent to the mat in open space. He has fantastic top control and excellent ground and pound, never putting himself in bad spots and always choosing position over submission. Dos Anjos is a 4th-degree Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with excellent cardio, making him always dangerous, no matter where the fight goes.

Best Bets

Khalil Rountree Jr. by KO: Rountree Jr. is one of the most vicious strikers in the entire 205-pound division, and with Daukaus moving down in weight, this could be a real problem for him. Not to mention, Daukaus is coming off three straight KO losses and facing yet another powerful striker.

AJ Dobson Moneyline (+125): Despite a rough start in the UFC, Dobson has serious potential. He’s lengthy and well-rounded, able to present issues for his opponents on the feet and on the ground. I think he could blow through Nchukwi, but he’ll need to use his wrestling to do so.

Vicente Luque Moneyline (+105): Calling this a best bet is probably silly, but I love Luque and I can’t pick against him here. RDA is a true legend and deserves the respect he receives, but his bout with Rafael Fiziev showed he can be outstruck still and I think Luque has the ability to do that. I also think Luque’s grappling abilities are slept on, and if RDA gets lazy with his takedowns, he could find himself getting choked out.

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov

Sean Strickland throws a right hand at Nassourdine Imavov. Credit: BVM Sports.

In an unusual matchup, we’ll see top middleweight contender Sean Strickland take on Abus Magomedov in his second UFC bout. Beyond that, the main card is packed with finishers and rising stars like Ismael Bonfim, Michael Morales, and Grant Dawson. This card very well could be a big showcase for future talent; hopefully, we won’t see much involvement from the judges.

Brunno Ferreira vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Bruno Ferreira lands a knee on Gregory Rodrigues. Credit: Zuffa LLC.

Middleweight Bout

Bruno Ferreira: 10-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Nursulton Ruziboev: 34-8-2, 12 KO/TKO, 20 Sub.

Ferreira is undefeated and is making his second promotional outing following an upset KO victory over Gregory Rodrigues (13-5-0). He is an explosive striker with one-shot knockout power. He’s constantly feinting, switching stances, looking for openings, and attacking from different angles. Ferreira has finished all ten wins, with just two of his career outings seeing a second round. Training at Evolucao Thai, he prefers power to volume and has great head movement and big-time power in both hands. Although patient, he will throw out risky maneuvers like Superman punches and spinning kicks. He is willing to grapple and often takes the fight to the mat via vicious slam takedowns before unleashing hellacious ground-and-pound. He’s very active on the ground and will never accept position, constantly trying to advance and secure a finish. Ruziboev makes his promotional debut on an eight-fight win streak, with all those wins coming via first-round finish. On the feet, he throws a lot of single shots but with plenty of power and loves to throw flashy spinning kicks. He’s always pressuring forward and will often pursue takedowns early, often using his wild offense to set up his wrestling. Ruziboev has a dangerous submission game and can finish the fight on top and his back. He’s highly active on the ground and never stops moving, but he is much more of a wild man than a technician and can put himself in bad spots. Training at Renzo Gracie Philly, he’s always looking to finish the fight, often choosing not to defend takedowns to pursue a kimura instead. Ruziboev has heavy ground-and-pound and is excellent at changing grappling positions, especially reversing position from bottom to top. Ferreira is the favorite at -182, making Ruziboev the +147 underdog. This is a tough fight to predict since neither has much, if any, UFC experience. I will take under 2.5 rounds; I’d be surprised to see this go to the judges. As for a winner, I’ll take Ferreira. He has vastly more technical striking and is a capable grappler, so if Ruziboev can’t get the fight to the mat early, it might be a short night.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Ferreira -184

Ismael Bonfim vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

Benoit Saint Denis throws a jab at Gabriel Miranda. Credit: MMA Mania.

Lightweight Bout

Ismael Bonfim: 19-3-0, 9 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Benoit Saint-Denis: 10-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Bonfim enters this bout on a 13-fight win streak, with his UFC debut victory coming over Terrance McKinney (13-5-0). Bonfim is an exceptional striker with great technical boxing and fantastic range management. He does a great job of varying his shots, attacking the head and body evenly, and constantly pursuing a finish. He’s willing to brawl inside the pocket, has devastating knees, and throws everything in combination. Bonfim is extremely explosive and always coming forward, often looking to land countershots. Training at Cerrado MMA, he has great cardio and can throw with power and volume, never gassing himself out or overextending. He has a solid chin and has never been knocked out but typically won’t take much damage, using his footwork and head movement to remain unharmed. Bonfim is at his best when dictating the pace and controlling the center of the octagon, searching for counters and fight-ending shots. Saint-Denis has won four of his last five outings, holding UFC wins over Niklas Stolze (12-6-0) and Gabriel Miranda (16-6-0). On the feet, he is constantly pressuring forward with heavy kicks and throwing bombs. He throws everything with fight-ending intentions and uses his striking to get inside and pursue takedowns. He is an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in Judo, a brown Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and a great variety of submissions on his record. Training at Woirin Team Elite, Saint-Denis typically secures takedowns quickly and has heavy top control, always choosing position over submission and rarely putting himself in risky spots. Whether on the feet or the mat, he’s always trying to end the fight and is always dangerous. A decorated veteran and former Special Forces paratrooper, he’s incredibly tough and has possibly the best chin in the lightweight division. Bonfim is the biggest favorite on the main card at -320, with Saint-Denis returning a +250 underdog. These odds speak much more to the hype behind Bonfim than a gap in skills. While I believe Bonfim has a massive advantage on the feet, Saint-Denis is super durable and hard to finish, so Bonfim could be in trouble if he ends up on bottom. Bonfim has the striking skills and takedown defense to get it done, so I’ll take him moneyline. I’m hesitant to take under 2.5 rounds with Saint-Denis’s adamantium chin, but I think it’s worth the risk.

Picks: Bonfim -320, Under 2.5 rounds

Ariane Lipski vs. Melissa Gatto

Ariane Lipski wrenches on a kneebar on Luana Carolina. Credit: ESPN.

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Ariane Lipski: 15-8-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Melissa Gatto: 8-1-2, 2 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Lipski has won two of her last five bouts and holds wins over JJ Aldrich (11-6-0), Mandy Bohm (8-2-0), and Luana Carolina (8-4-0). She is a classic Muay Thai striker with constant forward pressure, great clinch striking, and always throws in combination. She does an excellent job of varying her shots, often opening combos with a body jab before attacking upstairs. Lipski has great footwork and typically holds the center of the octagon, keeping her opponent on their heels. Training with Team Nunes, she remains technical across all 15 minutes and often looks to counter-strike, waiting for her opponent to open up before unleashing combinations. She’s willing to grapple and has great defensive wrestling, with 73% takedown defense and a fantastic ability to reverse attempts and land on top. She has solid top pressure on the mat and will focus on position over submission, rarely putting herself in harm’s way. Lipski is at her best in a technical striking battle where she can hold the center and control the pace. Gatto has won three of her last five outings with one draw and has UFC victories over Victoria Leonardo (9-6-0) and Sijara Eubanks (8-7-0). She’s a grappler who will shoot in early and often uses her excellent clinch control to secure takedowns in close. On top, she remains patient and technical, mostly focusing on submissions and not throwing much ground-and-pound. Training at MSP, Gatto is lengthy and makes great use of it on the mat, easily transitioning between positions and controlling her opponent. She’s very dangerous off her back, perpetually pursuing a finish and moving from position to position. She’s rather uncomplicated on the feet, largely throwing 1-2 combos and leg kicks. She has some decent power in her hands but usually won’t spend much time at distance. Gatto is the favorite at -230, with Lipski the +190 underdog. This fight will be decided by who does their specialty better; if it stays standing, Lipski has an advantage, while Gatto has the upper hand on the mat. I think Lipski is the more well-rounded fighter and has great takedown defense, so I’m taking her moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Lipski +190, Over 2.5 rounds

Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales

Michael Morales cracks Adam Fugitt with a hook. Credit: FanSided.

Welterweight Bout

Max Griffin: 19-9-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Michael Morales: 14-0-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Griffin has found victory in four of his last five outings, with wins over Carlos Condit (32-14-0), Song Kenan (18-7-0), and Tim Means (32-15-1). He constantly moves on his feet, often staying at range and throwing low kicks. He tends to favor his right hand, throwing bombs regularly. He doesn’t put out crazy volume but isn’t a slow fighter either, averaging about 59 significant strikes landed in his last five fights. Training with MMAGold Fight Team, Griffin is at his best when he’s throwing first and coming forward. He has one-shot knockout power in both hands and has decent cardio, maintaining his pace throughout the fight. Griffin has a solid takedown game, averaging over one takedown landed per UFC fight, and has good defensive wrestling. Morales comes into this fight undefeated, with UFC victories over Adam Fugitt (9-4-0) and Trevin Giles (16-4-0). He’s a technical kickboxer who remains patient and waits for openings to damage his opponent. He throws everything in combination and does a great job setting things up with his jab. Morales often blitzes forward to throw long, devastating hooks and straights, then quickly returns to range. Training at Entram Gym, he’s a solid grappler and very strong in the clinch. He’s also shown great calmness when put in tough spots as well as great defense off his back. When on top, he’ll typically resort to ground-and-pound in his pursuit of a finish. Morales is the favorite at -250, with Griffin the +205 underdog. This is undoubtedly the biggest test of Morales’ young career; Griffin is an experienced striker who’s only been finished once. I believe Morales has the skills to get the win and quite possibly a knockout as well if he can keep it standing. I’ll take Morales by knockout and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Morales by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

#12 Damir Ismagulov vs. #15 Grant Dawson

Damir Ismagulov exchanges blows with Guram Kutateladze. Credit: Sherdog.

Lightweight Bout

Damir Ismagulov: 24-2-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Grant Dawson: 19-1-1, 4 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.

Ismagulov has won four of his five preceding bouts, with wins over Guram Kutateladze (12-3-0), Rafael Alves (20-12-0), and Thiago Moises (17-6-0). He is an aggressive striker with excellent range management and head movement. In his UFC career, he’s outstruck all his opponents, averaging about 57 strikes landed compared to about 38 absorbed. He has fast hands, powerful kicks, and constantly pressures forward, often busting his opponent up with his jab. Training at Boets MMA, he varies his shots well, attacking the body and head evenly. Ismagulov has excellent footwork and does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket without taking damage. Ismagulov has great takedowns and excellent top control, constantly throwing ground-and-pound when on top. He has fantastic takedown defense, having defended 75% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Dawson is undefeated in his promotion tenure, holding victories over Jared Gordon (19-6-0), Leonardo Santos (18-7-1), and Julian Erosa (28-12-0). He is an excellent grappler and is most comfortable on the mat, often shooting early and easily gaining takedowns. He’s averaging around three takedowns landed per fight in his UFC career and has great control, especially on the back. He’s very active on the ground, always pursuing a finish. Of his 13 career submissions, 11 are rear-naked chokes, so Dawson is incredibly dangerous if he can get his opponent’s neck. Dawson throws everything with power on the feet and stays behind his jab, often not moving around too much. Training at American Top Team, he has decent head movement and usually doesn’t get hit too much, but he isn’t a very complex striker and will largely throw basic combinations. This is a true Pick ‘em, with both men coming in at -110. These odds make a lot of sense; both are incredibly high level and very well could be in title contention soon. While they stack up pretty evenly, the biggest difference maker will be Ismagulov’s striking. He has a much more technical and evolved striking game than Dawson and can match his grappling, so I’ll take Ismagulov moneyline. I have no idea if there’s a finish in this bout, so I’m cautiously taking over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Ismagulov -110, Over 2.5 rounds

#7 Sean Strickland vs. Abus Magomedov

Abus Magomedov lands a front kick on the chin of Dustin Stoltzfus. Credit: Zuffa LLC.

Middleweight Bout

Sean Strickland: 26-5-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Abus Magomedov: 25-4-1, 14 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Sean Strickland has won three of his last five fights, with wins over #10 ranked middleweight Jack Hermansson (23–8-0), #13 ranked middleweight Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0), and Uriah Hall (18-10-0). He is known for his striking prowess as well as for his tendency to talk trash throughout fights. While he prefers to keep the fight standing, he often mixes some grappling with his striking, averaging just over one takedown per 15 minutes. Strickland also has solid takedown defense, defending 85% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. He rarely pursues submissions, typically resorting to ground-and-pound when on top. He uses a very upright boxing style on the feet, constantly moving forward and throwing combinations. While Strickland always pursues the knockout, he doesn’t overextend himself, usually remaining technical and composed, even in firefights. Training at Millenia MMA, he tries to keep his opponent on the back foot as much as possible to open up opportunities to land combinations: especially his one-two. Magomedov has won four of his last five bouts, making a splash with a 19-second KO victory over Dustin Stoltzfus (14-5-0) in his UFC debut. He is a lengthy striker who prefers power over volume, typically blasting his opponents with a barrage of kicks. He throws everything with fight-ending intentions and is at his most dangerous early, with 15 of his 20 finishes coming in round one. Magomedov is always pressuring forward and constantly switching stances, dealing damage to his opponent's body and head. He’s willing to grapple and is a solid wrestler, able to land his own takedowns and often reverse ones attempted on him to land on top. Training at UFD Gym, he transitions quickly on the ground and is active on top, always throwing ground-and-pound or pursuing a choke. Although this is his second bout in the UFC, he has big-fight experience, having made a run through the playoffs to the PFL middleweight championship in 2018. Strickland is a slight favorite at -150, with Magomedov the underdog at +125. This is easily the least informed I’ve been on a fighter in a main event, considering people usually don’t get main events in their second fight. Despite this, given Magomedov’s relative inactivity (3 fights since 2018) and lack of promotional experience, I have to give this one to Strickland. I think this fight will have a decently high pace, so I’ll take under 4.5 rounds, but wouldn’t be surprised to see the judges involved here.

Picks: Strickland -150, Under 4.5 rounds

UFC 285

Main Card

Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett

Middleweight Bout

Bo Nickal: 3-0-0. 1 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Jamie Pickett: 13-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

In this bout, one of the most highly touted UFC prospects makes his promotional debut. Nickal is undefeated in his career, having picked up two wins over Donovan Beard (7-2-0) and Zachary Borrego (4-1-0) on Dana White’s Contender Series. Nickal is a former three-time NCAA D1 collegiate wrestling champion who is very comfortable in the octagon despite his inexperience in MMA. Unsurprisingly, he is an excellent grappler who will shoot early and secure an advantageous position very quickly. He transitions at lightning speed on the ground and pursues submissions immediately once the fight hits the mat, using excellent top control to secure a finish. While we haven’t seen much of his striking, Nickal has shown solid power in his hands and does a great job using his striking to set up his wrestling. Training at American Top Team, all three of his fights have ended in under 2 minutes, with him holding just 2 minutes and 27 seconds of cage time in his professional career. Pickett has won two of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Joseph Holmes (8-2-0) and Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0). Pickett tends to come out a little slow, often taking time to find his range and timing before engaging. He primarily throws straights, usually only throwing hooks when he’s in the pocket, and often blitzes forward with big combinations. Although he starts slow, he has solid cardio, often picking up the pace in the later stages of the fight when his opponent begins to fade. Pickett is willing to grapple but mainly seems to do so when he’s losing the striking battle and is more than willing to clinch against the cage for long periods. Training at Port City Sports Performance, he is a lengthy striker who’s at his best when controlling the center of the octagon and using his reach. “The Night Wolf” has a solid arsenal of kicks, particularly at range, but favors his hands more, often throwing out naked kicks with no setup. Nickal is the biggest favorite on the card by a significant margin, coming in at -1600, with Pickett returning the +900 underdog. Don’t get me wrong, Bo Nickal should win this fight, but those odds are ludicrous, and I highly suggest staying away from the moneyline. I’m going to take Nickal by submission and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Nickal by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

#7 Mateusz Gamrot vs. #10 Jalin Turner

Lightweight Bout

Mateusz Gamrot: 21-2-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Jalin Turner: 13-5-0, 9 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Two well-rounded fighters collide in the octagon in this matchup. Gamrot has won 4 of his last five bouts, with his best victories coming over #8 ranked lightweight Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0), Jeremy Stephens (29-20-0), and Diego Ferreira (17-5-0). Like his opponent, he is an incredibly well-rounded fighter and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. When striking, he’s constantly moving and staying at range, remaining patient, and picking his shots. What he lacks in volume, he makes up for in power, throwing every shot with knockout intentions. Training at American Top Team, Gamrot is averaging over four takedowns landed per fight and has defended 90% of takedowns attempted on him. He is an excellent wrestler, refusing to give up on takedowns and never staying still on the ground, whether on top or bottom. A former KSW champion, “Gamer” has excellent cardio, seemingly always moving on the ground or his feet. Turner has won all his last five outings via finish, with his best wins coming over Brad Riddell (10-4-0) and Josh Culibao (11-1-1). He’s an excellent striker who usually fights in an upright stance and throws everything in combination. He constantly pursues a finish but remains patient, never overextending or telegraphing attacks. Turner has power in both hands and is very fluid on the feet, easily chaining attacks together and using a great variety of strikes. Training at Carlson Gracie Riverside, he’s averaging over one takedown landed per 15 minutes and has an impressive submission game, with three wins by submission in his last five fights. He’s as active on the ground as on the feet and constantly tries to improve position or find a finish. Turner is a huge lightweight, standing at 6’3, and uses his length by fighting at range and damaging his opponent without getting hit. He has serious speed and power in both hands and has shown solid cardio, making him dangerous at any time. Gamrot is the favorite at -220, with Turner the underdog at +180. This fight comes down to who can do their specialty better; Gamrot has the advantage in grappling, whereas Turner has the edge in striking. I believe Gamrot is a significant jump in competition for Turner and will prove too much too soon, and I expect Gamrot to pick up the win. I’m going to take under 2.5 rounds and Gamrot moneyline.

Picks: Gamrot -220, Under 2.5 rounds

#7 Geoff Neal vs. #9 Shavkat Rakhmonov

Welterweight Bout

Geoff Neal: 15-4-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Shavkat Rakhmonov: 16-0-0, 8 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

A pair of quickly rising contenders meet in this bout. Neal has won three of his last five outings and holds wins over #4 ranked welterweight Belal Muhammad (22-3-0), #9 ranked welterweight Vicente Luque (21-9-1), and the “Nigerian Nightmare'“ Mike Perry (14-8-0). He has serious power in his hands and throws everything in combination, usually fighting behind his jab. While he is an aggressive striker, he remains technical, keeping his punches tight and straight and his guard high. Neal is defensively sound, has excellent head movement, and has defended 60% of significant strikes attempted on him in the UFC. Training at Fortis MMA, he does a great job of varying his shots and attacking from different angles, but his best punch by far is his left straight. He holds a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has shown some decent wrestling, with a takedown defense percentage of 85%. Neal has proven to have solid cardio, carrying the same speed and power across all 15 minutes. Rakhmonov is undefeated and holds UFC wins over #12 ranked welterweight Neil Magny (27-11-0), Carlston Harris (17-5-0), and Alex Oliveira (23-13-1). Rakhmonov is in constant motion, constantly pressuring forward, but fights patiently and never telegraphs his shots. In his four fights with the promotion, he’s yet to eat more than 11 significant strikes in a single fight, averaging about one strike absorbed per minute. He holds the rank of Master of Sport in Combat Sambo and has won every fight of his career via finish, with only a single bout going to a third round. Rakhmonov is an excellent grappler with great takedowns, clinch striking, and a slick submission game. All eight submission wins have come via some choke, so they're in serious trouble if he gets a hold of his opponent’s neck. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Rakhmonov is a highly technical fighter but also will throw some flashy strikes, particularly a devastating spinning heel kick. Rakhmonov is a -550 favorite, with Neal the +400 underdog. While not particularly shocked by these odds, I feel like it’s disrespectful to Neal, and I think this fight could be much closer than many expect. Still, I expect Rakhmonov to secure a finish, so I’m taking Rakhmonov by submission and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Rakhmonov by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

(C) Valentina Shevchenko vs. #6 Alexa Grasso

Women’s Flyweight Title Bout

Valentina Shevchenko: 23-3-0, 8 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Alexa Grasso: 15-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

In this fight, one of the most dominant champions seeks to defend her title again. Shevchenko hasn’t lost in 6 years and holds victories over #2 ranked flyweight Taila Santos (19-2-0), #4 ranked flyweight Jessica Andrade (24-10-0), and #5 ranked flyweight Katlyn Chookagian (18-5-0). She holds black belts in Taekwondo and Judo and the rank of Master of Sports in Judo, Muay Thai, Kickboxing, and Boxing. She is one of the best strikers in the sport, always throws in combination, and has excellent power and speed in her hands and kicks. Training at Tiger Muay Thai, Shevchenko does a great job of evenly varying her shots, attacking the head, body, and legs. She’s averaged about four takedowns landed per fight in her last five outings and has excellent top control, ground and pound, and chokes. Everything she does is fast, and she is fantastic at managing distance, never staying in the pocket long enough to get hit. In her last five fights, Shevchenko has averaged about 62 significant strikes landed compared to approximately 26 significant strikes absorbed. Grasso has won four of her last five bouts and has wins over #8 ranked flyweight Viviane Araujo (11-4-0), and #12 ranked flyweight Maycee Barber (11-2-0). She is an excellent technical boxer who throws everything in combination and with purpose. She’s aggressive but not wild, staying technical and using great timing and accuracy to damage her opponents. Grasso is willing to eat one to land one and is dangerous inside the pocket, but they also have solid head movement. She holds a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has landed 57% of the takedowns she’s attempted in the UFC. On top, she’s active and has solid ground and pound, and she found her first win via submission in a first-round victory over Joanna Wood (15-8-0) last year. Grasso is a volume striker with excellent cardio, always fighting behind her jab and setting up her combinations. Shevchenko is a significant favorite at -800, with Grasso, the underdog, at +550. Despite Shevchenko looking rather human in her last outing, I think this will be a return to form for her, and I expect a dominant victory. I’ll take Shevchenko by knockout and under 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Shevchenko by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 rounds

Jon Jones vs. #1 Ciryl Gane

Heavyweight Title Bout

Jon Jones: 26-1-0, 10 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Ciryl Gane: 11-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

In the main event, we’ll see the GOAT return against one of the most dangerous heavyweights in MMA. Jones is undefeated (excluding his bogus DQ loss), and holds wins over former champions Daniel Cormier (22-3-0), Glover Teixeira (33-9-0), and Shogun Hua (27-14-1). On the feet, he throws everything with power and is excellent at managing distance, absorbing just 36% of strikes thrown at him. He does a great job of controlling the center of the cage and varies his shots constantly, attacking both the head and body. Training at Jackson’s MMA, Jones has some of the most devastating elbows in MMA and never telegraphs his attacks. He stays technical across all five rounds and has proven his cardio, having not been in anything but a title fight since 2011. He averages nearly two takedowns landed per fight and has heavy top control and ground and pound. He is also a great defensive wrestler, having defended 95% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Jones also has excellent head movement and doesn’t often take much damage, on average landing nearly twice as many significant strikes as he absorbs.  Ciryl Gane has won four of his last five bouts, with wins over #8 ranked Alexander Volkov (34-9-0), former UFC heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos (21-9-0), and an interim heavyweight title win over #11 ranked Derrick Lewis (26-8-0). Gane is one of the most technical strikers we’ve ever seen in the heavyweight division, using excellent Muay Thai to damage his opponents. Training at MMA Factory, he can throw various strikes from punches, kicks, knees, and elbows and throws all those with power. While he’s become known for his striking, he also has solid grappling, having two submission wins in the UFC, including a heel hook. I’d say his wrestling and BJJ are relatively equal; he has solid takedowns and top control and can do a lot of damage with his ground and pound or submit his opponent. He’s willing to exchange in the pocket but is also excellent at range, throwing plenty of high and low kicks and crisp combinations with his hands. Jones is the favorite at -180, with Gane the +155 underdog. Despite a three-year layoff, I still believe Jones should win this fight. Given how Gane was dominated by Francis Ngannou’s wrestling and his admitting to not training between fights, I can’t imagine his wrestling has improved enough to match Jones. I will take Jones by decision and over 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Jones -180, Over 4.5 rounds

UFC 284

Prelims

Josh Culibao vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

Featherweight Bout

Josh Culibao: 10-1-1, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Melsik Baghdasaryan: 7-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

An excellent matchup of exciting strikers; this should be a war on the feet. Culibao has won three of his last five outings with one draw and has wins over Seung-Woo Choi (10-6-0) and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (39-10-0). Culibao is a technical striker who is constantly feinting and moving and throws every shot with power. He tends to throw in combination, with his best punch being his right straight, but he also has a solid kicking game. Training at Igor MMA, Culibao has excellent footwork and head movement, often darting into the pocket to land a combination before returning to range. He is patient and won’t overextend, but he constantly pursues a finish and will often increase his pace as the fight continues. Culibao has shown solid cardio in the UFC, carries the same power and speed across all 15 minutes, and has landed three knockdowns in his four fights with the promotion. Culibao has not attempted a takedown in the UFC but has defended 82% of takedowns tried on him. He holds a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, so he has grappling capabilities. Baghdasaryan has won all his last five outings, with his UFC victories coming over Collin Anglin (8-5-0) and Bruno Souza (10-3-0). Baghdasaryan is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 9-2 and even challenged for a K-1 World Title before coming to MMA. Unsurprisingly he is an excellent striker with serious power in his punches and kicks. Baghdasaryan is always coming forward and never telegraphs his shots and does a great job of varying his shots, attacking the head and body evenly. Training at Glendale Fighting Club, what he lacks in volume, he makes up for in power, although he does usually supply his opponent with a healthy dose of leg kicks. Baghdasaryan is very defensively sound, with him, on average, landing nearly double as many shots as he absorbs. He is a very aggressive striker and always pursues a finish, throwing plenty of looping punches and spinning kicks. Like his opponent, Baghdasaryan has not attempted a takedown in the UFC but has exhibited both solid takedown defense (76%) and good clinch striking. Culibao is a very slight favorite at -115, with Baghdasaryan coming in at -105. I expect a finish in this fight, so under 2.5 rounds is a safe bet. Both guys have similar skills and styles, but I think Baghdasaryan is a bit more technical and has an advantage in both power and striking experience, so I’ll take him to win this one by knockout.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Baghdasaryan -105

Tyson Pedro vs. Modestas Bukauskas

Light Heavyweight Bout

Tyson Pedro: 9-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Modestas Bukauskas: 13-5-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

In this bout, two strikers with knockout ability collide in the octagon. Pedro has won three of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over #13 ranked light heavyweight Khalil Rountree Jr. (12-5-0) and #10 ranked light heavyweight Paul Craig (16-6-1). Pedro is a devastating striker with serious power in everything he throws. He has an excellent range of kicks, particularly damaging head and leg kicks, which he’ll set up through constant feinting and movement. Pedro has great speed for the division and is very skilled at using his length, often landing damage from distance. While he won’t often initiate grappling exchanges, Pedro is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and possesses a solid submission and takedown game. Training at Lions High Performance Centre, Pedro is patient and technical, never rushing in or overextending on his shots. He has excellent knees and varies his shots, attacking the head and body evenly. While he won’t often put out much volume in terms of strikes, he makes up for it with one-shot knockout power. Bukauskas has won two of his last five bouts, with his UFC victory coming over Andreas Michailidis (13-6-0). He is a technical kickboxer in perpetual motion, always feinting and making great use of his footwork. He has a solid arsenal of kicks and will often do most of his damage from range, only coming inside to let combinations go. Bukauskas throws power in everything but is an accurate striker, throwing every shot with purpose. He is at his best when coming forward and controlling the distance. Training at Gintas Combat, Bukauskas favors a slower-paced, technical kickboxing match and has not attempted a takedown in his UFC tenure. He has defended 100% of takedowns tried on him in the UFC and has an excellent ability to land elbows on opponents shooting in, scoring multiple finishes from that position. Pedro is the -240 favorite, with Bukauskas returning a +200 underdog. Both have similar styles and backgrounds, but I think the most significant difference between them is power and speed, and I believe Pedro has both of those advantages. I’m going to take Pedro by knockout and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Pedro by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

Jimmy Crute vs. Alonzo Menifield

Light Heavyweight Bout

Jimmy Crute: 12-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Alonzo Menifield: 13-3-0, 10 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Two men who rarely see a second round face off in this bout. Crute has won two of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over #10 ranked light heavyweight Paul Craig (16-6-1), Michal Oleksiejczuk (18-5-0), and my dad, Sam Alvey (33-18-1). He has heavy hands and kicks on the feet, throwing every shot with power. He does an excellent job of managing distance, often picking his opponent apart at range with various attacks. Crute has not seen a second round in six fights, and eleven of his 15 fights have ended in round one. He is an excellent grappler, holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and will often shoot for takedowns early. Training at Greco and Stewie’s House, Crute is averaging nearly five takedowns landed per fight and is a tenacious wrestler, often chaining takedowns together. He has excellent top control and transitions quickly on the ground, averaging two submission attempts per fight, and has two wins by Kimura in the UFC. Menifield has won four of his last five contests, with his best wins coming over Misha Cirkunov (15-9-0) and Ed Herman (27-15-0). He is an explosive striker with serious power in both hands and constantly pursues a finish. He throws lots of looping shots and overhands and can do damage from anywhere, whether at distance or in the pocket. He has excellent leg kicks and is capable of landing damage even when moving backward, making him dangerous at all times. Menifeld has ten first-round finishes with four knockouts scored with under ten punches landed, proving he’s at his most dangerous early. He averages just under a takedown landed per fight and can land devastating ground and pound if he secures top position. He has heavy top pressure and two first-round submissions, one of which being a von flue choke over Fabio Cherant (7-4-0). Menifield does fade as the fight continues, with all of his finishes coming before the third round and 2 of his three career losses coming via decision. Crute is the favorite at -190, with Menifield the +160 underdog. While Menifield is a serious threat on the feet, I expect Crute to shoot for a takedown early and dominate on the ground. I’ll take Crute by submission and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Crute by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Randy Brown

Welterweight Bout

Jack Della Maddalena: 13-2-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Randy Brown: 16-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Two rising stars will face off in a significant bout for the future of the welterweight division. Maddalena hasn’t lost a bout in 7 years and has UFC wins over Danny Roberts (18-7-0), Ramazan Emeev (20-6-0), and Ange Loosa (9-3-0). Maddalena is an excellent striker with technical boxing and bricks for hands who carries power going forward and backward. On average, he lands twice as many strikes as he absorbs, using great distance management and head movement. He throws everything in combination and is excellent at changing levels, attacking the head and body evenly. Maddalena is one of the most defensively sound strikers who always keeps his guard high and tight and has defended 71% of strikes thrown at him. Training at Scrappy MMA, he fights behind his jab and often strings together long, seven or 8-piece combinations that badly damage his opponent. While he won’t usually go to the ground, he’s shown great scrambles, takedown defense, and an ability to escape very deep waters. Brown has won 4 of his last five fights, with wins over Jared Gooden (20-7-0), Alex Oliveira (22-12-1), and Bryan Barberena (17-8-0). Brown is a tall welterweight at 6’3 and makes excellent use of it, throwing combinations at range, often putting body kicks at the end of his punches. Brown has a boxing background; he can throw 4 or 5 punch combinations without getting wild and with solid accuracy, but he also has dangerous kicks. Despite only having two KOs in his six-year UFC tenure, Brown has proven he has knockout power on multiple occasions and can also land severe damage in the clinch. Averaging just below a takedown a fight, Brown will mix in grappling with his slick striking and does a great job of using his length in the clinch to control his opponent and take them to the mat. If the fight goes to the ground, Brown has a good submission game and some great chokes, with 4 of his five career submissions coming via some kind of choke. Training at Kings MMA, Brown’s willingness to exchange on the feet has hurt him before, having been knocked out twice in the UFC, and has also struggled to defend leg kicks and is at his best when he can use his length at range. Maddalena is the favorite at -330, with Brown the +260 underdog. Under 2.5 rounds is a lock; I’d be shocked if this went to a decision. I have to admit my bias; Maddalena is my favorite prospect for 2023. Regardless, he’s much more technically skilled than Brown, and I think he’ll overwhelm him on the feet, so I’ll take Maddalena by knockout.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Maddalena by KO/TKO

#2 Yair Rodriguez vs. #5 Josh Emmett

Interim Featherweight Title Bout

Yair Rodriguez: 15-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Josh Emmett: 18-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

In this fight, we’ll see two of the best fighters in the world compete for an interim title. Rodriguez has won three of his last five outings with one no-contest and has wins over #3 ranked featherweight Brian Ortega (15-3-0), #6 ranked featherweight Chan Sung Jung (17-7-0), and #15 ranked featherweight Alex Caceres (20-13-0). Rodriguez is one of the most diverse strikers in the UFC, possessing an insane arsenal of kicks and flashy attacks. He throws everything with immense speed and attacks from different angles, constantly moving and switching stances. He usually leads with his kicks before letting his hands go, picking his opponent apart at range before entering the pocket to throw combinations. Rodriguez has excellent distance management and timing and never slows down, consistently putting out a substantial volume of strikes. Training at Valle Flow Striking, he has excellent clinch striking and some of the most devastating elbows in MMA. He won’t usually take the fight to the mat, but he has a great submission game and is dangerous off his back. Emmett has won all of his last five bouts and holds wins over #7 ranked featherweight Calvin Kattar (23-7-0), #13 ranked featherweight Dan Ige (16-6-0), and Hinsdale Central legend Ricardo Lamas (20-8-0). Emmett is an explosive striker, possessing the most powerful punches in the featherweight division. He loves to brawl inside the pocket and throw vicious overhands, throwing everything with massive power. He’s patient and looks for openings but is constantly pursuing a finish and willing to eat a shot to land one. Training at Team Alpha Male, Emmett is averaging 98 strikes landed in his last three fights and has shown he carries his power across 15 minutes. He’s also defensively sound, with just 37% of strikes attempted on him landing. He is an excellent wrestler with a great takedown game and heavy top pressure, but he often prefers to keep the fight standing. Rodriguez is the -190 favorite, with Emmett returning the +160 underdog. This is a brutal fight to predict; I could see either winning by finish or decision. While Emmett has a definite power advantage, I think the speed and range management should earn him a victory here. I’ll take Rodriguez moneyline and over 2.5 rounds, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a finish in this one.

Picks: Rodriguez -190, Over 2.5 rounds

(C) Islam Makhachev vs. (C, FW) Alexander Volkanovski

Lightweight Title Bout

Islam Makhachev: 23-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 11 Sub.

Alexander Volkanovski: 25-1-0, 12 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

This is easily one of the craziest super fights ever made, and one you absolutely cannot miss. Islam Makhachev has won all of his last five bouts, with his best wins coming over former UFC lightweight champion Charles Olivera (33-9-0), #11 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker (21-11-0), and #14 ranked lightweight Drew Dober (26-11-0). Makhachev, like his coach and training partner Khabib Nurmagomedov, is a dominant wrestler who could submit you or ground and pound you to find a finish. Makhachev has won four of his last five fights by submission, with the most recent coming in the second round, showing a significant improvement in urgency. Training at AKA, Makhachev prefers grappling but is capable of striking as well, throwing with 59% accuracy on the feet as well as defending 65% of shots thrown at him. Makhachev averages over three takedowns landed per fight and makes his wrestling background very apparent, using the now-famous Dagestani style of controlling and dominating his opponent against the cage. The last place you want to be against Makhachev is on the bottom, as he will relentlessly pursue the finish from the top and can easily control an opponent for five rounds if he can’t get them out of there. Volkanovski has won all of his last five outings and has wins over former champion, and #1 ranked featherweight Max Holloway (23-7-0), Chad Mendes (18-5-0), as well as former featherweight champion Jose Aldo (31-8-0). He is an excellent technical striker with serious power in both hands and devastating leg kicks. He’s accurate, throws every shot with purpose, and quickly moves in and out of the pocket. He never telegraphs his attacks and is defensively sound, defending 66% of strikes attempted on him. While defensively sound, he’s willing to eat a shot to land one and will brawl in the pocket. Training at City Kickboxing, he has excellent cardio and is constantly pressuring forward, putting up an average of 169 strikes landed in his last five fights. He also averages nearly two takedowns landed per fight, is a great wrestler with heavy top pressure and outstanding control in the clinch and has shown an incredible ability to escape submissions. Makhachev is a -400 favorite, with Volkanovski the +310 underdog. I know Volkanovski is coming up a weight class, but making him that big of an underdog is ludicrous and too good of odds not to pursue. I have to take Volkanovski moneyline and under 4.5 rounds, which is a much safer bet. I think Volkanovski has the wrestling ability to keep the fight standing where he has a massive advantage, and I believe he can secure a finish.

Picks: Under 4.5 rounds, Volkanovski +310

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland

Prelims

Jake Matthews vs. Matthew Semelsberger

Welterweight Bout

Jake Matthews: 18-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Matthew Semelsberger: 10-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

This is a fascinating matchup of two high-pace fighters. Matthews has won four of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over Andre Fialho (16-6-0), Li Jingliang (19-8-0), and Diego Sanchez (31-14-0). Entering his 8th year in the promotion, Matthews had established himself as a grappler, averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fight and holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. In his last fight, though, he showed off vastly improved striking. Training at Nexus, Matthews uses technical kickboxing and stays behind his jab, often trying to draw his opponent in so he can counterstrike. He varies his attacks well, has a solid chin, and throws everything with power without loading up. He has power in both hands and great accuracy and doesn’t often overreach, usually remaining patient. When he does take it to the mat, he has great takedowns, excellent top control, and throws heavy ground and pound. Semelsberger has won three of his last five bouts, with his most impressive victories coming over AJ Fletcher (9-2-0), Martin Sano (4-3-1), and Jason Witt (19-9-0). Semelsberger is a dangerous striker with serious one-shot knockout power and is always pursuing a finish. Semelsberger is constantly pressuring forward and throwing combinations, using good footwork and stance switches to get to his opponent. Training at Crazy 88 BJJ, he has knockdowns in four of his six UFC fights and throws every shot with power but won’t telegraph or load up. He prefers to keep it striking, but if he does want to grapple, he’s shown excellent wrestling, landing every takedown he’s attempted in the UFC. He has excellent ground and pound, particularly elbows, and will pursue chokes if the opportunity presents itself. Matthews is one of the biggest favorites on the prelims at -260, making Semelsberger a +210 underdog. After his last fight, I have no idea what to expect from Matthews; he could come out and wrestle right away or stand and bang. Either way, I think he’s more technical and skilled than Semelsberger just about everywhere, so I’m taking Matthews and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Matthews -260, Over 2.5 rounds

Main Card

Cody Brundage vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Middleweight Bout

Cody Brundage: 8-2-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Michal Oleksiejczuk: 17-5-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

A fight with two fighters who don’t see the judges often, this could be a quick one. Brundage has found victory in three of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Tresean Gore (5-2-0) and Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0). In his brief UFC tenure, Brundage is averaging just under two takedowns landed per fight, over one submission attempt per fight, and is a dangerous grappler. He is willing to fight on the feet and throws everything with power, often ducking his head to throw counterstrikes. Brundage uses a great variety of attacks and is a creative striker, with him most commonly throwing overhands and hooks. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, Brundage often shoots early and has solid takedowns, usually securing them quickly. He advances very quickly on top and will pursue submissions, often jumping on guillotines. Brundage is very explosive, has one-shot knockout power, and has excellent clinch striking. Oleksiejczuk has won three of his last five outings, with wins over my dad Sam Alvey (33-18-1), Gian Villante (17-14-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (12-5-0). Oleksiejczuk is an aggressive striker who is always coming forward and throwing combinations. He has an excellent chin and considerable power in his hands, often entering the pocket and throwing looping hooks. Oleksiejczuk has excellent head movement and footwork and is an efficient striker, never wasting energy and throwing everything with purpose. Training at Ankos MMA, Oleksiejczuk won’t stay at range long and is willing to eat a shot to land one, and virtually never throws kicks, only using his hands to land damage. Nine of his thirteen career finishes have come inside the first round, so he’s definitely at his most dangerous early. Oleksiejczuk holds the center well and does a great job cutting off the cage, always stalking his opponents and looking for openings to throw big combinations. Oleksiejczuk is the favorite at -280, with Brundage a +230 underdog. Brundage has a better chance than the odds suggest; he has a definite grappling advantage, but his tendency to stay on the outside of the cage and get backed up hurts him in this matchup. It’s not easy to wrestle going backward; if it stays on the feet, I think Oleksiejczuk can get it done quickly. I’ll take Oleksiejczuk by knockout and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Drew Dober vs. Bobby Green

Lightweight Bout

Drew Dober: 25-11-0, 13 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Bobby Green: 29-13-1, 10 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

This is my favorite fight of the card, and I expect a war. Dober has won three of his last five fights and has wins over Terrance McKinney (13-4-0), Alexander Hernandez (13-6-0), and Nasrat Haqparast (14-5-0). Dober is an excellent striker with a Muay Thai background and a black belt in Taekwondo. Dober always stays technical and throws all his punches tight and straight, rarely throwing looping shots. He has powerful kicks and serious power in his hands and carries that power across all three rounds. Training with Elevation Fight Team, Dober has excellent head movement and varies shots, attacking the head and body evenly. He’s willing to brawl in the pocket, but he doesn’t get sloppy, has solid footwork, and is always coming forward. Dober does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket, throwing kicks and range, and damaging combinations in close. Green has won two of his last five bouts and has wins over Al Iaquinta (14-7-1), Clay Guida (37-18-0), and Josh Thomson (22-9-0). Training at Pinnacle MMA, Green is an excellent boxer, picking his opponents apart with quick combinations and damaging straights. Green is rarely in a boring fight, always willing to go to the center of the octagon and exchange blows. He has won Performance of the Night once and Fight of the Night 3 times in his career, backing up his scrappy tendencies. Green also has solid wrestling to supplement his striking, having defended 72% of takedowns attempted on him and possesses good top control and a decent submission game. Green has landed 52% of his significant strikes and has defended 62% of strikes thrown at him, making him a rather efficient striker, able to engage in the pocket and land big shots without taking damage in return. Green does a great job mixing up his strikes, attacking the head and the body, and throwing the occasional kick to finish a combination. Dober is the favorite at -155, making Green a +130 underdog. There are no easy picks in this fight, but neither guy has been finished on the feet in a long time, and I’d be shocked if either attempted to grapple, so I’ll take over 2.5 rounds. Dober is a bit more technical and has more variety in his attacks due to his kicking game, so I’ll take Dober here. You should never count Green out of a fight, though.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Dober -155

Alex Caceres vs. Julian Erosa

Featherweight Bout

Alex Caceres: 19-13-0, 3 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Julian Erosa: 28-10-0, 11 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.

This fight sees a matchup of two fighters who have recently been on the rise. Caceres has won four of his last five outings and has wins over current Bellator bantamweight champion Sergio Pettis (22-5-0), Chase Hooper (11-3-1), and SeungWoo Choi (10-6-0). Caceres is a lengthy striker who will float around the outside of the cage and is in perpetual motion. Caceres often throws more kicks than punches and has a serious arsenal of kicks, attacking from different angles and often using his lead leg. Caceres is tough to hit, nearly doubling the number of significant strikes he lands on average compared to what he absorbs. Training at MMA LAB, Caceres won’t enter the pocket often and tends to throw single strikes with his hands but throws everything with power. Despite seven submission losses, Caceres is willing to grapple and will pursue submissions, with two submission wins in his last five fights. Erosa has won four of his last five outings and has wins over Sean Woodson (9-1-1), Charles Jourdain (13-6-1), and Steven Peterson (19-10-0). Erosa has an awkward style on the feet, staying very upright with his hands down, and throwing lots of looping hooks from strange angles. Erosa is seemingly always moving forward, whether to initiate a grappling exchange or land strikes and has the cardio to do so over three rounds. “Juicy J” is willing to get into brawls on the feet, gladly hanging in the pocket and exchanging combinations. Training at Xtreme Couture, Erosa averages about two takedowns landed per fight and is a slick submission artist, with two UFC victories via D’arce choke, one of which was standing. Although Erosa has some KO losses on his record, most of those came in round 1, so if his opponent can’t take him out early, he only gets more dangerous as the fight continues. Erosa is the favorite in this bout at -175, with Caceres the +150 underdog. Although Caceres has shown improved grappling as of late, Erosa still has a definite advantage on the ground and is more than skilled enough to go with Caceres on the feet. With seven submission losses on Caceres’s record and 12 submission wins on Erosa’s, I have to take Erosa by submission and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Erosa by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

#8 Amir Albazi vs. Alessandro Costa

Flyweight Bout

Amir Albazi: 15-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Alessandro Costa: 12-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

A bout between two up-and-coming flyweights, this is an entertaining matchup. Albazi has won four of his last five outings, with his UFC victories coming over Malcolm Gordon (14-6-0), Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-8-0), and Francisco Figueiredo (13-5-1). Albazi is a well-rounded fighter who’s most comfortable on the mat. In his three UFC fights, Albazi is averaging three takedowns landed per fight and over one submission attempt per fight. Training at Xtreme Couture, Albazi has excellent takedowns and is very hard to shake off, always staying active and pursuing a finish on top. He’s also dangerous on his back and advances position very quickly on the ground. He uses technical boxing, constant forward pressure, and great head movement on the feet to damage his opponent. Albazi makes excellent use of feints and doesn’t telegraph his shots, always fighting behind his jab and usually holding the center of the cage. Costa is making his UFC debut following a split decision victory over Juan Andres Luna (12-1-0) on Dana White’s Contender Series. Costa is similarly well-rounded but with a vastly different style. On the feet, Costa has one-shot knockout power in his hands and throws everything with fight-finishing intentions. He has great head movement and varies his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly, and he even has a body shot knockout on his record. Costa has heavy kicks, especially low kicks, and does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket without taking damage. Training at Legacy MMA, he’ll often blitz forward and throw combinations, but he also has great counterstriking and is always dangerous. Costa has great takedowns and is aggressive on the ground, constantly transitioning quickly and pursuing the finish. Five of his six career submissions came via armbar, and if he does take it to the mat, it’ll often be what he attempts first. Albazi is the biggest favorite on the card at -450, making Costa a +350 underdog. I’m a bit surprised by these odds; I don’t think the skill gap is nearly as wide as it’s been made out to be. Albazi is undoubtedly more technical and has the better experience, but Costa has serious power for flyweight and is a monster on the ground, so Albazi isn’t safe anywhere. I will roll the dice here and take Costa moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Costa +350, Over 2.5 rounds

#9 Arman Tsarukyan vs. #12 Damir Ismagulov

Lightweight Bout

Arman Tsarukyan: 18-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Damir Ismagulov: 24-1-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

This fight is an excellent matchup of two highly well-rounded fighters. Tsarukyan comes into this fight with wins in 4 of his last five outings, with the best of those wins being victories over Olivier Aubin-Mercier (13-5-0) and Davi Ramos (10-4-0), as well as a first-round knockout of Christos Giagos (19-9-0). His only UFC loss is to the current lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev, and based on the high-level competition he’s been given, the UFC is very high on this young fighter. He has crisp kickboxing on the feet, throwing plenty of combos ending with head kicks, and doing a great job moving in to land shots and back out to range. He will mix in some flashy spinning kicks and spinning backfists, staying calm and picking his opponent apart with quick shots and plenty of leg kicks. Training at Khabarovsk MMA and American Top Team, Tsarukyan has a solid wrestling background, willing to initiate grappling exchanges to land ground and pound and pursue submissions. All 5 of the submissions on his record were via choke, so he is certainly dangerous if he can get a hold of someone’s neck. Ismagulov has won all of his last five bouts and has wins over Guram Kutateladze (12-3-0), Rafael Alves (20-11-0), and Thiago Moises (16-6-0). Ismagulov is an aggressive striker with excellent footwork and head movement, on average landing nearly twice as many significant strikes than he absorbs. Ismagulov has fast hands, powerful kicks, and constantly pressures forward, always pumping his jab. Training at Boets MMA, he’s averaging about 61 significant strikes landed per fight in the UFC and varies his shots well, attacking the body and head evenly. Ismagulov has excellent footwork and does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket without taking damage. Ismagulov has great takedowns and excellent top control, usually pursuing ground and pound when in top position. He has fantastic takedown defense, having defended 90% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Tsarukyan is the favorite at -190, with Ismagulov returning as the +160 underdog. The easiest pick in this fight would be over 2.5 rounds; both are very hard to finish, and I expect a closely contested decision. Picking a winner in this one is practically a coin flip, so I’ll play it safe and pick the favorite here in Tsarukyan.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Tsarukyan -190

#3 Jared Cannonier vs. #7 Sean Strickland

Middleweight Bout

Jared Cannonier: 15-6-0, 10 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Sean Strickland: 25-4-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Two excellent strikers collide in a significant bout for the middleweight division. Cannonier has found victory in three of his last five fights and has wins over former UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva (34-11-0), #9 ranked middleweight Jack Hermansson (23-8-0), and #12 ranked middleweight Kelvin Gastelum (17-8-0). Cannonier has fought at both heavyweight and light heavyweight in his career and carries that heavyweight power at middleweight. Cannonier throws everything with fight-ending intentions, constantly pressuring forward and willing to eat a shot to land one. Cannonier has excellent footwork and regularly switches stances, typically setting up his combinations with his jab. Training at MMA LAB, Cannonier is excellent at moving in and out of the pocket and usually won’t stay at range for long but will throw damaging leg kicks when outside of the pocket. What he lacks in volume, he makes up for in power, and his pace increases as the fight continues. Cannonier is unlikely to take the fight to the mat but can land devastating ground and pound if he gets top position. Sean Strickland has four of his last five fights, with impressive wins over Uriah Hall (18-10-0), Krzysztof Jotko (23-5-0), and Brendan Allen (17-5-0). Strickland is well known for his striking, as well as for his tendency to talk trash throughout fights. His trash talk usually frustrates his opponents while being outstruck and picked apart. While “Tarzan” prefers to keep the fight standing, he will often mix some grappling with his striking, averaging just over one takedown per fight. He also has shown pretty solid takedown defense in his career, defending 85% of takedowns attempted on him. Strickland rarely pursues submissions, preferring to get the work done with his powerful hands. Strickland uses a very upright boxing style on the feet, constantly moving forward and throwing combinations. While he always pursues the knockout, he doesn’t overextend himself, usually remaining technical and composed even in firefights. Training at Millenia MMA, Strickland seems almost Terminator-like with his constant forward movement. He tries to keep his opponent on the back foot as much as possible to open up opportunities to land combinations, especially his one-two. This is a pick ‘em fight, with both fighters sitting at -110. The odds are that way for a reason; this is a very close fight. These fighters are pretty close skill-wise, with the biggest difference being Cannonier’s power advantage, which I believe is significant. Due to this, I’m taking Cannonier moneyline and under 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Cannonier -110, Under 4.5 rounds

UFC 282

Prelims

#14 Chris Curtis vs. Joaquin Buckley

Middleweight Bout

Chris Curtis: 29-9-0, 15 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Joaquin Buckley: 15-5-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

An excellent matchup of exciting strikers; this should be a great fight from bell to bell. Curtis has won four of his last five outings, with his UFC wins coming over Phil Hawes (12-4-0), Brendan Allen (20-5-0), and Rodolfo Vieira (8-2-0). Curtis is a veteran of the sport, having started his pro career in 2009, and is an excellent technical boxer on the feet. Curtis has one-shot knockout power in both hands and varies his strikes well, attacking the head and body evenly. Training at Xtreme Couture, Curtis has great counterstriking and will often dip his head before returning fire with a barrage of hooks. He throws everything in combination and is at his best when he stays behind his jab and pressures forward, controlling the fight's pace. He’s shown great patience and doesn’t overexert himself on the feet, but he has a solid chin and is willing to eat a shot to land one. Curtis has shown excellent takedown defense and has denied every takedown attempted on him in the UFC, and he also possesses a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Buckley has found victory in three of his last five bouts, with his best wins coming over Albert Duraev (15-4-0), Jordan Wright (12-4-0), and his 2020 KO of the year of Impa Kasanganay (10-3-0). Buckley is a highly aggressive striker with serious power in both hands. He is always moving and pursuing a finish, throwing every shot with power and often mixing in kicks at the end of combinations. Although Buckley has enormous power in his hands, his kicks might be his most dangerous weapon, especially as he throws them everywhere from every angle. Training at Finney’s HIT Squad, Buckley throws everything in combination and pushes a frantic pace, and is willing to throw wild attacks like flying knees and spinning kicks. He’s averaging over one takedown landed per fight and has decent takedown defense, but he prefers to keep it standing where he’s most comfortable. All his UFC finishes have come in round 2 or later, so he gets more dangerous as the fight continues. Buckley is the favorite at -150, with Curtis returning a +125 underdog. Both men have very similar styles and push similar paces, but Buckley has more diversity in his striking game, especially with his kicks. Buckley’s constant movement and ability to fight at range will make the difference here; I’m taking Buckley and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Buckley -150, Under 2.5 rounds

#9 Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. #11 Chris Daukaus

Heavyweight Bout

Jairzinho Rozenstruik: 12-4-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Chris Daukaus: 12-5-0, 11 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Two powerful heavyweights collide in what I expect to be a quick fight. Rozenstruik has won two of his last five fights, with his best wins coming over former UFC heavyweight champions Junior Dos Santos (21-10-0) and Andrei Arlovski (34-21-0), and Alistair Overeem (47-19-0). Rozenstruik is a former professional kickboxer with a record of 76-8, with 64 wins by knockout. Eight of his eleven career knockouts have come in the first round, so he’s at his most dangerous early on. Training at American Top Team, Rozenstruik is an excellent counter striker who looks to draw his opponent into the pocket so he can land big shots with his right hand. Rozenstruik has one-shot KO power but can string together long combinations if he lets his hands go. He has solid takedown defense and has defended 75% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC, and he has also never been submitted. Rozenstruik has excellent hand speed for a heavyweight, throws everything with power, and often mixes kicks into the end of combinations. Daukaus has won three of his last five outings and has scored notable wins over Aleksei Oleinik (59-16-1) and Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0). Training at Martinez BJJ, Daukaus possesses excellent speed for a heavyweight, using his sharp boxing to overwhelm his opponents with volume and power. He won’t often take the fight to the mat but possesses solid clinch work and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Daukaus also has solid defensive wrestling, with his takedown defense percentage a sparkly 100%. If he does get on top, he has excellent control and will throw devastating ground and pound. Daukaus throws everything in combination, has great hand speed for the weight class, and never loads up on his shots. He will stay technical even when hunting the finish and has solid footwork that he uses to pressure forward constantly. Rozenstruik is the favorite at -170, with Daukaus the underdog at +145. Both men have lost their last two fights and need a big win, so under 2.5 rounds is a given. I think Rozenstruik has a size and experience advantage, but I don’t think he’ll be able to handle the speed or pace of Daukaus. I’m taking Daukaus by finish.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Daukaus by Finish

Main Card

#9 Bryce Mitchell vs. #14 Ilia Topuria

Featherweight Bout

Bryce Mitchell: 15-1-0, 0 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Ilia Topuria: 12-0-0, 4 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

This fight sees two of the hottest prospects in the UFC matchup in a significant bout for the division. Mitchell has won all of his last five outings and has wins over #13 ranked featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0), Andre Fili (22-9-0), and Charles Rosa (14-8-0). Mitchell is a high-level grappler, averaging over three takedowns landed per fight and nearly two submission attempts per fight in the UFC. With both a wrestling background and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Mitchell quickly gets the fight to the ground. He has excellent top control on the ground and always pursues a finish, whether ground and pound or a submission. Training at Barata MMA, Mitchell has one of two ever wins via twister in UFC history and is at his most dangerous early, with eight of his nine career submissions coming in round one. On the feet, Mitchell constantly moves, cuts off the cage well, and shows decent power in his hands. He tends to use lots of feints and technical boxing, but he will throw the occasional flashy kick. Topuria is undefeated and has wins over Ryan Hall (9-2-0), Damon Jackson (19-4-1), and Yousseff Zalal (10-5-0). He uses a boxing style on the feet, staying very composed and fighting behind his jab, and does an excellent job of mixing up his attacks between the head and body. With great power in both hands, he’s very dangerous on the feet at all times, proven by the fact that he’s only seen a second round three times in his career. Topuria is also an excellent grappler with multiple submissions on his record, although he has yet to submit anyone in the UFC. He has excellent wrestling, often using double-leg takedowns to bring his opponent down. He has good top control and does a great job of staying aware of any submission attempts thrown his way while often pursuing multiple submissions, typically chokes. No matter where the fight goes, Topuria always looks for the finish, whether it’s a knockout or a submission. Topuria is a slight favorite at -135, with Mitchell, the underdog, at +115. I’d be shocked to see this fight go to a decision, so I’ll take under 2.5 rounds. As for picking a winner, this is an incredibly tough choice; these are two of my absolute favorite fighters. Topuria has a definite striking advantage, whereas Mitchell has the grappling advantage. This is a total toss-up, I’m going to take Topuria because I think he’s a bit more well-rounded, but this fight could easily go either way.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Topuria -135

#10 Darren Till vs. #14 Dricus Du Plessis

Middleweight Bout

Darren Till: 18-4-1, 10 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Dricus Du Plessis: 17-2-0, 7 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

In this bout, we see two fighters who seem to be trending in opposite directions. Till has won one of his last five fights and has wins over #6 ranked welterweight Stephen Thompson (17-6-1), #12 ranked middleweight Kelvin Gastelum (17-8-0), and Donald Cerrone (36-17-0). Till is a dynamic striker with great footwork and a technical Muay Thai style. Till always throws in combination, usually setting up his attacks with his jab before entering the pocket to let his hands go. Training with Team Kaobon, Till has excellent distance management and moves quickly in and out of the pocket, rarely staying in one spot for long. He throws every shot with purpose and will stay technical across an entire fight, often switching stances repeatedly. Till often looks to counter strike, regularly dipping his head to avoid strikes before returning fire. He won’t often take the fight to the mat but has shown great clinch striking at solid takedown defense, having defended 78% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Du Plessis has won all of his last five bouts, with his UFC victories coming over Markus Perez (12-6-0), Trevin Giles (15-4-0), and Brad Tavares (19-8-0). Du Plessis has a kickboxing background and shows it on the feet, often throwing a barrage of kicks from distance, especially to the legs. Du Plessis has one-shot knockout power, with many of his knockouts seemingly coming out of nowhere. Training at CIT Performance Institute, he has power in both hands and will often blitz forward to throw big combinations. Du Plessis throws everything with power and never telegraphs his shots, making him dangerous at all times. He’s also shown some solid grappling ability, quickly advancing position on the ground and often securing takedowns quickly. On top, he stays patient and won’t force anything, focusing on getting to advantageous positions before throwing ground and pound. Du Plessis went to the first decision of his entire career in his last outing, with all of his 16 previous fights ending via finish. Du Plessis is the favorite at -180, making Till a +155 underdog. My brain says Du Plessis, but my heart says Till. Du Plessis has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to secure a win easily if he can get the fight to the mat, but were yet to see how Till’s wrestling has improved since training with Khamzat Chimaev. I’ll stay safe and take Du Plessis by finish and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Du Plessis by Finish

Alex Morono vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

Welterweight Bout

Alex Morono: 22-7-0, 6 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Santiago Ponzinibbio: 29-6-0, 15 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

In this bout, we see a late replacement in Morono step up to take a tough matchup. Morono has won four of his last five outings and has wins over Donald Cerrone (36-17-0), Zak Ottow (20-8-0), and Max Griffin (19-9-0). Morono is exceptionally well-rounded, holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Taekwondo. Morono keeps his hands high on the feet and stays technical, usually fighting behind his jab and throwing in combination. Morono has excellent footwork and head movement, often just getting out of the way of strikes and regularly ducking his head to slip and counter. Training at Fortis MMA, Morono is constantly moving and does a great job of darting in and out of the pocket and never loads up or telegraphs his shots. He has solid cardio and is averaging about 70 significant strikes landed per fight in his last five bouts, and he has landed 90 or more significant strikes in a fight six times in the UFC. With eleven of his twelve career finishes coming round one, he’s very dangerous early. He won’t often take the fight to the ground, but Morono is dangerous off his back and on top. Ponzinibbio returned to fighting in 2021 after three years due to health complications. He’s won two of his last five fights and has wins over #12 ranked welterweight Neil Magny (27-10-0), Miguel Baeza (10-3-0), and the “Nigerian Nightmare” Mike Perry (14-8-0). Training at American Top Team, Ponzinibbio is best known for his impressive striking and power, using a solid mix of punches and kicks to get the job done. Ponzinibbio has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and while he does have six submission victories, they all came outside the promotion, and he’s unlikely to take the fight to the mat. He has a great ability to remain technical across a whole fight and can fight at distance as well as in the pocket. Averaging about 80 significant strikes landed per fight in his last five bouts, Ponzinibbio has a good chin and solid cardio, able to push the same pace across 15 minutes. Fifteen of his 21 career finishes have come in the first round, so he’s very dangerous early in the fight. Ponzinibbio is the favorite in this bout at -205, with Morono the +155 underdog. Despite coming in on short notice, Morono is one of the most game fighters in the sport, and I expect this to be a very close fight. Ponzinibbio had been preparing for a vastly different opponent in Robbie Lawler, and I think the technicality and skill of Morono will be a real problem for him. I’m going to take Morono and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Morono +155, Over 2.5 rounds

Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon

Lightweight Bout

Paddy Pimblett: 19-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Jared Gordon: 19-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

This fight is a fascinating matchup of two well-rounded fighters. Pimblett has won all of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Luigi Vendramini (9-3-0), Kazula Vargas (12-5-0), and Jordan Leavitt (10-2-0). Pimblett is a very aggressive striker, always throwing everything with power and using a variety of wild kicks. Pimblett always throws in combination and is willing to brawl in the pocket, often blitzing forward and swinging wild hooks. Training at Next Generation UK, Pimblett is an excellent grappler, and in his promotional tenure, he’s averaging nearly five submission attempts and two takedowns landed per fight. Pimblett has excellent takedowns and advances position very quickly on the ground, using his black belt in BJJ to pursue submissions at all times. He’s very creative on the ground and is one of the most dangerous men in the sport to have on your back, as he will often wrap up chokes very quickly. Six of his nine career submissions are rear naked chokes, and he also has two flying triangle wins, so if he can get a hold of his opponent’s neck, the fight is practically over. Gordon has won four of his last five bouts, with his best victories coming over Joe Solecki (12-3-0), Bill Algeo (16-7-0), and Leonardo Santos (18-7-1). Averaging about two takedowns landed per fight in the UFC, Gordon has great wrestling both in open space and on the fence but is willing to stand and exchange as well. On the feet, he’ll often get into the pocket and lower his head, throwing powerful hooks and uppercuts. He gets out of the way of damage well at range and often throws leg kicks. When it goes to the ground, Gordon prefers ground and pound to chasing a submission, applying heavy top control, and landing devastating shots. Training at Sanford MMA, Gordon does a great job of pushing the pace the entire fight, often relentless in his search for a takedown or engaging in brawls inside the pocket. Gordon is averaging about 74 significant strikes landed in his last five fights and has solid cardio, able to push the same pace across all three rounds. Pimblett is the favorite at -260, with Gordon the +210 underdog. In another fight where I’m struggling to pick a winner, under 2.5 rounds is the safest bet. Gordon is the best competition Paddy has faced and is very well-rounded. I will not be the guy to pick against Paddy, so I’ll take him by finish, but I will not be surprised if Gordon somehow pulls this off.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Pimblett by Finish

#3 Jan Blachowicz vs. #4 Magomed Ankalaev

Light Heavyweight Title Bout

Jan Blachowicz: 29-9-0, 9 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Magomed Ankalaev: 18-1-0, 10 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

This is an excellent matchup of well-rounded fighters competing for the vacant light heavyweight title. Blachowicz has won four of his last five outings and has wins over former UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya (23-2-0), #5 ranked light heavyweight Aleksander Rakic (14-3-0), and #8 ranked light heavyweight Nikita Krylov (29-9-0). Blachowicz is an excellent kickboxer with serious power in his hands and kicks. Blachowicz has great footwork and does an excellent job of stalking his opponents and cutting off the cage, and he will always let his hands go when he enters the pocket. Training at Berkut WCA Fight Team, he’ll often blitz forward to land big combinations, but also has solid counter striking and is always looking for openings. Blachowicz has one-punch knockout power and does a great job of evenly varying his strikes, attacking the head and body. He has also shown excellent wrestling and takedowns and holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, so he is very capable on the ground, both on top and off his back. Ankalaev has won all of his last five fights and holds victories over #6 ranked light heavyweight Anthony Smith (36-17-0), #10 ranked light heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (18-7-0), and Thiago Santos (22-11-0). Ankalaev has a grappling background, holding the rank of Master of Sport in combat sambo. Despite this, he only averages about one takedown landed per fight and will often keep it on the feet. He is very patient and will often throw plenty of single shots, but he makes up for his lack of volume with power. Ankalaev constantly presses forward and throws every shot with purpose, with his pace increasing as the fight continues. Training at Gorets, he holds the center well and often waits for openings or chances to counter before letting his hands go. He has a solid kicking game and will often mix kicks into the end of combinations, never overextending himself. When he takes the fight to the mat, he is tough to shake off and will throw vicious ground and pound until he secures a finish. Ankalaev is the biggest favorite of the main card at -270, with Blachowicz the +220 underdog. I will fully admit my bias for Blachowicz, but I believe he can and should win this fight. Ankalaev’s tendency to fight at a slow, technical pace could not be more the opposite of Blachowicz, and I think Blachowicz has the wrestling to keep it on the feet if Ankalaev decides to wrestle. I’m going to take under 4.5 rounds and Blachowicz moneyline.

Picks: Blachowicz +220, Under 4.5 rounds

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland

Prelims

Michael Johnson vs. Mark Diakiese

Lightweight Bout

Michael Johnson: 21-18-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Marc Diakiese: 16-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

A matchup of two well-rounded UFC veterans, this will be an exciting fight. Johnson has found victory in one of his last five outings and holds victories over #2 ranked lightweight Dustin Poirier (29-7-0), #15 ranked lightweight Tony Ferguson (26-8-0), and #13 ranked featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0). Johnson has been in the promotion since 2010 and is an alumnus of the 12th season of the Ultimate Fighter, with a background in collegiate wrestling. Johnson has fought a who’s who of the lightweight division and is well respected for his well-roundedness and devastating punching power. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Johnson has blazing-fast hands and loves to get into the pocket and throw 4-5 punch combinations. He has power in both hands, with his best weapon being his straights, but he also tends to throw damaging, wide hooks. Johnson has great takedown defense, having defended 79% of takedowns attempted on him in his UFC career. He has wrestling ability but only seems to use it when he’s losing on the feet, but he can land serious ground and pound if he gets on top. Diakiese has wins in three of his last five bouts, with his best wins coming over Lando Vannata (12-6-2), Joe Duffy (16-5-0), and Viacheslav Borshchev (6-3-0). Diakiese is primarily known for his kickboxing ability, possessing a dangerous arsenal of kicks he’ll often throw more than his hands. Diakiese won’t push a crazy pace, often throwing single shots but throwing everything with power. Diakiese is quick, never telegraphs his shots, and has some of the most brutal leg kicks in the sport. Training at American Top Team, Diakiese has recently used a wrestling-heavy attack, landing 19 takedowns in his last two fights. He’s a tenacious wrestler, willing to work hard along the fence to secure takedowns, and has smothering top control when he gets on top. Like his striking style, he won’t put out a ton of output, preferring to control his opponent and find safe positions. He has a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has shown a solid ability to transition and keep himself in advantageous positions, wearing down his opponents with his relentless grappling. Diakiese is a sizable favorite at -300, with Johnson the +240 underdog. I get why people are fading Johnson; you see one win in his last five, which looks bad, but his last loss was a very close split decision, and he had a KO win before that. Johnson has excellent takedown defense and pushes a much heavier pace on the feet than Diakiese. I could see Diakiese coming out, taking Johnson down, and doing what he’s done in his last two fights, but I think Johnson has the grit and skill to pull this one off. I’m taking Johnson and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Michael Johnson +240, Over 2.5 rounds

Niko Price vs. Phil Rowe

Welterweight Bout

Niko Price: 15-5-0, 10 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Phil Rowe: 9-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

This fight sees two exciting strikers collide in the octagon. Price has won two of his last five fights, with one victory overturned to a no-contest due to a positive test for THC (sigh). Price has wins over Tim Means (32-14-1), Randy Brown (16-4-0), and Alex Oliveira (22-12-1), as well as one of the two ever upkick knockouts in UFC history. Price is always in exciting fights, has won Performance of the Night 4 times in his promotional tenure, and has averaged 86 significant strikes in his last five outings. Training at Syndicate Boxing Club, Price puts power into everything he throws, typically staying in the pocket and throwing in combination. He’s most at home in a brawl, fighting in a phonebooth and swinging wild hooks, often swarming his opponent with extensive combinations. Price is willing to grapple and has solid wrestling, usually able to reverse position and get on top to land ground and pound. With nine of his thirteen career finishes coming in round 1, he is by far at his most dangerous early on. Rowe has won four of his last five bouts, with his UFC victories coming over Jason Witt (19-9-0) and Orion Cosce (8-1-0). Rowe is an excellent striker who tends to keep his hands down, waiting for a chance to let his hands go and throw combinations. Rowe throws everything with power, has extremely fast hands, and does a great job attacking the body and head evenly. Training at Fusion X-Cel, Rowe always stays technical even when throwing big combinations, keeping all his punches tight and accurate. He has finished every win of his career, and both of his UFC wins came in the second round, so he does tend to take some time before he gets going. He can strike at distance and in the pocket, possessing excellent clinch striking and devastating knees. Rowe doesn’t seem interested in taking it to the ground but has shown good ability off his back and a great ability to get back to his feet, always appearing calm and collected wherever the fight goes. Price is a slight favorite at -135, making Rowe a +115 underdog. Picking a winner is tough, but choosing the rounds is not; this should go under 2.5 rounds. This is super tough, I think Rowe has a definite speed advantage and is more technical, but Price is incredibly tough. I’m going to take Rowe here; I think his technical skill will make the difference.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Rowe +115

Main Card

Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus

Middleweight Bout

Eryk Anders: 14-7-0, 8 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Kyle Daukaus: 11-3-0, 0 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Two well-rounded fighters match up in this fight. Anders has won one of his last five outings with one no-contest and has wins over Darren Stewart (12-9-0), Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0), and Brendan Allen (20-5-0). Anders is a particularly big middleweight and carries serious power in both hands, usually favoring his left. Anders will often dip his head and throw overhands and is always looking to set up big shots on the feet. He rarely throws kicks and is always looking to get into the pocket and let his hands fly. Training at Fight Ready, Anders is averaging over one takedown landed per fight and will often shoot early. If he takes the fight to the mat, he’s tough to shake off and focuses on landing damage instead of seeking a submission. Anders also has skills off his back and solid takedown defense, having defended 75% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC. Seven of his nine career finishes came in the first round, so Anders is at his most dangerous early in the fight. Daukaus has won two of his last five fights with one no-contest, with his UFC victories coming over Jamie Pickett (13-8-0) and Dustin Stoltzfus (14-5-0). Daukaus is a lengthy fighter and uses it on the feet, managing his distance well and striking from range. He has fast hands and uses technical boxing, fighting behind his jab and always throwing in combination. Training at Martinez BJJ, Daukaus has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is a serious submission threat, with all his career finishes coming via choke. He will usually shoot in early and transition quickly on the ground, always looking for a submission or ground and pound openings. He is always moving on the ground and is extremely hard to shake off, and he does a great job of controlling his opponent while also advancing position. Six of his nine career submissions came via d’arce choke, so Daukaus is always hunting for his opponent’s neck and usually ends the fight quickly if he finds it. Daukaus is the favorite in this bout at -210, with Anders returning as a +175 underdog. This is an interesting fight; Anders is bigger and more physically gifted, whereas Daukaus is quicker and more technically skilled. I’ll side with the oddsmakers here, I expect this fight to end up on the mat, and I think Daukaus has an advantage in the grappling. Rounds are tough to pick here; this could end up a 15-minute grappling match or a first-round finish. I’ll follow my gut and take under 2.5 rounds, but it could go either way.

Picks: Daukaus -210, Under 2.5 rounds

#8 Jack Hermansson vs. Roman Dolidze

Middleweight Bout

Jack Hermansson: 23-7-0, 11 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Roman Dolidze: 11-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Another matchup of well-rounded fighters; this should be fireworks. Hermansson has won 3 of his last 5, with wins over #11 ranked middleweight Kelvin Gastellum (17-8-0), Chris Curtis (29-9-0), and Jacare Souza (26-10-0). Training at Frontline Academy, Hermansson is a well-rounded fighter, willing to engage in exchanges on the feet and on the ground. While he does have solid striking, it seems Hermansson prefers to take the fight to the mat, averaging about two takedowns a fight. When on the ground, he’s a bit more likely to pursue ground and pound than a submission but will grab a choke when given a chance. When striking, Hermansson uses a boxing style, often throwing a lot of leg and body kicks before letting his hands go. Hermansson is at his most dangerous early in a fight, having five first-round finishes in the UFC, two being knockouts with three submissions. “The Joker” has shown some decent power in his hands and can certainly put someone away, but seems his most comfortable in grappling situations, landing at least one takedown in all but one of his UFC wins. Dolidze has won 4 of his last five outings and has wins over Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0), Phil Hawes (12-4-0), and Kyle Daukaus (11-3-0). Dolidze has a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Sambo background and is an accomplished grappler outside MMA. Averaging over two takedowns landed a fight, Dolidze is most at home on the mat, where he also averages over one submission attempt per fight. Dolidze is excellent in the clinch and very hard to shake off, and he has shown an ability to throw damaging knees to the head when clinched against the fence. Training at Xtreme Couture, Dolidze won’t punch a ton while grappling, mainly focusing on improving his position and controlling his opponent. Dolidze has good power in his hands and prefers to counter-strike when on the feet, not moving his feet a ton but always moving his head. He gets his best work done in the clinch, and when he breaks off, he often throws power shots in close. Hermansson is the favorite at -175, with Dolidze a +150 underdog. This is a huge step up in competition for Dolidze, so I’m almost surprised he got this fight. Dolidze is undoubtedly skilled and on a hot streak, but Hermansson is much more experienced and has been fighting top guys for much longer. I have to take Hermansson here, as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Hermansson -175, Under 2.5 rounds

#4 Tai Tuivasa vs. #5 Sergei Pavlovich

Heavyweight Bout

Tai Tuivasa: 15-4-0, 14 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Sergei Pavlovich: 16-1-0, 13 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Two classic heavyweight brawlers; I’d be shocked if this fight even sees a second round. Tuivasa has won four of his last five outings and has wins over #7 ranked heavyweight Derrick Lewis (26-10-0), former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski (34-21-0), and Stefan Struve (33-13-0). Tuivasa has serious power in both hands and only needs to land one shot to put his opponent to sleep. Tuivasa has excellent distance management, fighting behind his jab and moving into the pocket to throw bombs. Training at Lions High Performance Centre, Tuivasa is willing to eat a shot to land one and has a granite chin, often getting rocked before finding the finish. He won’t initiate grappling exchanges but has shown solid ability in the clinch, both in terms of controlling his opponent and landing damage. Twelve of his 14 career knockouts came in the first round, and he’s only been to two decisions, so Tuivasa is dangerous from the second the bell rings. Pavlovich has similarly won four of his last five fights, with his best wins coming over Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-7-0), Maurice Greene (10-7-0), and Kirill Sidelnikov (14-7-0). Pavlovich has one-shot knockout power in both hands and is constantly pressuring forward, looking for openings. He uses a boxing style on the feet, staying behind his jab and favoring his right hand. Training at Eagles MMA, Pavlovich has a background in Greco-Roman wrestling and sambo and is capable of grappling but is much more likely to keep the fight standing. Pavlovich is yet to need more than 21 punches in his UFC tenure to secure a finish and tends to throw in combination. All 13 of his career knockouts came in the first round, with every fight that didn’t end round one ending up a decision victory for Pavlovich. He uses plenty of feints and doesn’t telegraph shots but throws everything with power and is always looking for the knockout blow. Pavlovich is the favorite at -220, making Tuivasa a +180 underdog. One thing is for damn near sure; this fight won’t see a second round, so under 2.5 or even 1.5 rounds is a lock. These guys have such similar styles and power I don’t think there’s any objective way to pick a winner, so I’m riding with my guy Tuivasa on this one. No matter what happens, this fight will produce a highlight.

Picks: Tuivasa by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

#6 Matheus Nicolau vs. #7 Matt Schnell

Flyweight Bout

Matheus Nicolau: 18-3-1, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Matt Schnell: 16-6-0, 2 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

This fight sees a collision in the octagon of two very well-rounded flyweights. Nicolau has found victory in all of his last five bouts and has wins over #9 ranked flyweight David Dvorak (20-4-0),#10 ranked flyweight Tim Elliot (19-12-1), and #12 ranked flyweight Manel Kape (17-6-0). Nicolau is very defensively sound on the feet and constantly moves, with only 33% of significant strikes attempted on him landing. Nicolau stays on the outside and uses excellent distance management, darting in and out of the pocket to land damage. Training at Novo União, Nicolau is a counter-striker and will often dip his head to throw overhands, especially with his right. He is a black belt in BJJ and is averaging both over one takedown landed and one submission attempted per fight but seems to prefer to keep it standing. Nicolau’s pace tends to increase as the fight continues, and he does a great job of changing levels and attacking both the head and body. Schnell has won two of his last five, with a loss overturned to a no-contest. Schnell’s best wins came over Louis Smolka (17-9-0), Sumudaerji (16-5-0), and Tyson Nam (21-12-1). Like his opponent, Schnell is willing to engage the fight just about anywhere, using a technical boxing style on the feet and favoring wrestling in grappling exchanges. Like most flyweights, Schnell has fast hands but has decent power for the weight class as well, often setting up his grappling with his striking and vice versa. Schnell is excellent at capitalizing on his opponent’s mistakes and will regularly grab chokes when defending takedowns. Of his eight career submission wins, 6 are chokes, all of which are either a guillotine or triangle. Training at Fortis MMA, Schnell has a black belt in karate, so despite largely boxing when on the feet, he has a kicking game to back up his hands. Schnell seems to be at his most vulnerable in the first round, with three first-round KO losses in his UFC career, but he also has a handful of first-round wins on his record, so he’s pretty unpredictable in the opening round. Nicolau is a sizeable favorite at -380, with Schnell returning a +300 underdog. While Schnell’s last five haven’t all gone his way, if you’ve watched them, you know Schnell is a dog. Nicolau is skilled and well-rounded but tends to push a relatively slow and technical pace. On the other hand, Schnell always ends up in wild wars on the feet, and I think his pace presents a real issue for Nicolau. I’m taking Schnell as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Schnell +300, Under 2.5 rounds

Bryan Barberena vs. #7 (LW) Rafael dos Anjos

Welterweight Bout

Bryan Barberena: 18-8-0, 11 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Rafael dos Anjos: 31-14-0, 5 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.

A fascinating matchup of two fighters with vastly different styles, this should be a fun one. Barberena has won four of his last five outings and has wins over former UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler (29-16-0), Sage Northcutt (11-3-0), and Jake Ellenberger (31-15-0). Barberena is your quintessential brawler, always looking to get into the pocket to land big combinations. Barberena is more than willing to eat a shot to land one and has a granite chin, often blitzing forward and dipping his head before letting his hands go. Training at Gym-O, he’s averaged about 96 significant strikes landed in his last five bouts and pushes a frantic pace. Barberena tends to open combinations with leg kicks at range and throws every shot with power. Barberena rarely takes the fight to the mat but has shown a solid ability to get back to his feet. He has solid cardio, and eight of his 13 finishes have come in round two or later, so he’s dangerous at any point in the fight. Barberena is exceptionally tough and loves to get into wars, regularly fighting in a phone booth and taking plenty of damage. Dos Anjos has found victory in two of his last five fights and has wins over #12 ranked welterweight Neil Magny (27-10-0), #13 ranked lightweight Renato Moicano (17-5-1), and former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (25-14-0). Dos Anjos is a former UFC lightweight champion and is incredibly well-rounded, having the ability to finish the fight wherever it goes. Training at Novo União, dos Anjos is constantly pressuring forward on the feet, fighting behind his jab, and always staying technical. He has solid head movement and varies his strikes well, attacking the head and body evenly. Dos Anjos averages just under two takedowns landed per fight and has excellent wrestling, often securing takedowns quickly and in open space. When he’s on top, dos Anjos is tough to shake off and is constantly pursuing damage. He averaged 78 significant strikes in his last five fights and will always be landing shots on the ground or the feet. Dos Anjos is the biggest favorite on the whole card at -550, with Barberena returning as a +400 underdog. The odds don’t surprise me; dos Anjos is considerably more skilled and technical and should easily win this fight. I’m taking dos Anjos and over 2.5 rounds, but Barberena is incredibly tough and can never be counted out of a fight.

Picks: dos Anjos, Over 2.5 rounds

#6 Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland

Welterweight Bout

Stephen Thompson: 16-6-1, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Kevin Holland: 23-8-0, 11 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

This fight sees two excellent welterweight strikers collide in the octagon. Thompson has won two of his last five fights and has wins over former UFC Welterweight Champion Johny Hendricks (18-8-0), #6 ranked welterweight Geoff Neal (15-4-0), and #9 ranked welterweight Vicente Luque (21-9-1). Thompson always puts on a show, whether a loss or a victory. One of the last true specialists in MMA, Thompson has become famous for his karate-based striking, utilizing a split leg stance, constant attacks with his front leg, and long straight punches. Training with Team Upstate Karate, “Wonderboy” went 58-0 in kickboxing before his MMA career. Thompson has some of the quickest strikes in the sport and never telegraphs anything. He possesses excellent movement and is often hard to hit, but he has a solid chin and has only been knocked out once in his entire combat sports career. You’ll practically never see Thompson initiate grappling exchanges, but he has shown improvement on the ground, especially in his defensive wrestling. Holland has won 2 of his last five fights with one no-contest and has wins over Joaquin Buckley (15-5-0), Jacare Souza (26-10-0), and Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0). Holland has surged in popularity since 2020, with fans loving his brash, loud-mouth style in which he will spend an entire fight talking to his opponent, regardless of whether he’s winning or losing. Holland is an aggressive striker, typically throwing combinations and always willing to engage on the feet. He does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket, although he has no problem hanging in close to exchange on the inside. Training at Travis Lutter BJJ, Holland tends to throw kicks at range, using his kicks to set up his hands, often throwing kicks naked or at the start of a combination. After fighting most of his UFC career at Middleweight, this marks his second venture into the welterweight division in the promotion, and he has looked both bigger and stronger in the weight class. While he has struggled with his takedown defense in the past, he’s shown solid improvement as of late and, despite preferring striking, has a slick submission game. Holland is the favorite at -170, with Thompson the +145 underdog. This an entertaining matchup, and both are great strikers, but unless Holland decides to grapple, Thompson has a definite advantage. Thompson has more experience as is more technically skilled, so I’m taking Thompson and over 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Thompson +145, Over 4.5 rounds

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac

Prelims

Vince Morales vs. Miles Johns

Bantamweight Bout

Vince Morales: 11-6-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Miles Johns: 12-2-0, 4 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

This fight sees two exciting strikers face off. Morales has won 3 of his last five outings and has wins over Louis Smolka (17-9-0), Drako Rodriguez (7-4-0), and Aiemann Zahabi (9-2-0). Morales is constantly moving on the feet and is at his most dangerous early, with five of his eight career finishes coming in the first round. Morales usually throws in combination and puts out good volume, with his best weapon being his right overhand. Training at Syndicate MMA, Morales has good footwork and moves in and out of the pocket well and is at his best when he’s controlling the center of the octagon and pressuring forwards. He’s incredibly tough and can survive through adversity, and he seems to need to get into the pocket to do his best work, so he’s more than willing to eat a shot to land one. Morales has excellent leg kicks and mixes up his shots well, attacking the head and body evenly. Morales has only landed a single takedown in his UFC tenure and will rarely initiate grappling, but he does tend to absorb a lot of strikes, on average getting hit more times per minute than he lands. Johns has found victory in four of his last 5 bouts, with his most notable victories coming over Adrian Yanez (15-3-0), Anderson Dos Santos (21-9-0), and Kevin Natividad (9-3-0). Johns is an excellent boxer with serious power in both hands, usually staying behind his jab before throwing bombs. Johns makes up for a lack of volume with power and accuracy, often throwing big looping shots with a ton of power, always pursuing a finish. Johns has excellent striking defense and is often hard to hit, with just 31% of significant strikes attempted on him landing. Training at Fortis MMA, Johns has a collegiate wrestling background and solid grappling but favors using it defensively, having landed just four takedowns in his UFC career but holding a takedown defense percentage of 92%. Johns has fantastic movement and is always feinting, and does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket without taking damage. Johns has power moving both forward and backward and carries power in his punches and kicks across an entire fight, making him dangerous at all times. Johns is a slight favorite in this fight at -140, with Morales a +120 underdog. The similar records make these odds so close because I don’t think this fight is that close. Morales gets hit a lot, and Johns rarely takes significant damage, and Johns is quicker and stronger than Morales, so I’d say this fight is pretty cut and dry. I’ll take Johns by finish and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Johns by Finish, Under 2.5 rounds

#8 Jennifer Maia vs. #15 Maryna Moroz

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Jennifer Maia: 19-9-1, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Maryna Moroz: 11-3-0, 1 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Two extremely well-rounded fighters collide in this fight. Jennifer Maia has won 2 of her last five fights, scoring solid victories over Jessica Eye (15-10-0), Joanne Wood (15-7-0), and Roxanne Modafferi (25-20-0). Despite having a black belt in Muay Thai, Maia primarily uses her boxing on the feet, but she isn’t always technical and tends to throw more looping shots. She has some decent kicking ability but won’t throw kicks too often, usually throwing a few leg kicks and occasionally head kicks. Training at the legendary Chute Boxe, Maia is an excellent grappler and has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Maia will go for both ground and pound and submissions, with a handful of armbars on her record. A former Invicta women’s flyweight champ, Maia also has some professional boxing experience, going 3-0 in her career. Maia hasn’t had a finish loss in nearly a decade and has proven to be challenging to put away despite her aggression, averaging about 54 significant strikes landed per fight in the UFC. Moroz has won 3 of her last five bouts and has wins over Joanne Wood (15-7-0), Sabina Mazo (9-3-0), and Mayra Bueno Silva (7-2-1). Moroz has the rank of Master of Sport in both boxing and kickboxing in her home country of Ukraine and has been boxing most of her life. Despite this, Moroz has been more likely to take the fight to the mat lately, using dominant top control to land ground and pound and pursue submissions. Moroz often secures her takedowns in the clinch, using plenty of knees and other strikes to open her opponent up and drag them to the mat. Moroz has five takedowns in her last three fights, with no takedowns in the UFC before this, so she’s favoring her grappling more and improving. Moroz uses a Muay Thai-like style on the feet, keeping her hands high and moving constantly. Training at American Top Team, she’ll often use her striking to get her opponent on the outside of the cage, where she can then get them in the clinch on the fence and work from there. Moroz gets the nod here as the favorite at -175, with Maia returning as a +150 underdog. Both fighters have very similar skill sets and are well-rounded, but Maia certainly has the better pedigree on the ground. With Moroz pushing her grappling lately, I think that could be her undoing, as Maia is an excellent grappler both on top and off her back. If Moroz kept it standing, I think she could overwhelm Maia, but considering how she’s fought lately, I expect her to shoot in on Maia and end up in a tough position. I’ll take Maia by decision as well as over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Maia by Decision, Over 2.5 rounds

Main Card

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Danny Roberts

Welterweight Bout

Jack Della Maddalena: 12-2-0, 10 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Danny Roberts: 18-6-0, 8 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

A matchup of two excellent boxers, this one won’t last long. Della Maddalena hasn’t lost a fight in 6 years, with his UFC victories coming over Pete Rodriguez (5-1-0) and Ramazan Emeev (20-6-0). Della Maddalena has bricks for hands, carries power whether he’s going backward or forwards, and is always dangerous. Della Maddalena has beautiful technical boxing and sets everything up with his jab, often throwing combinations that are well over five punches. Training at Scrappy MMA, he has awe-inspiring striking numbers, landing nearly double the number of significant strikes he absorbs per minute. Della Maddalena is incredibly hard to hit, with just 35% of significant strikes attempted on him landing. He’s unlikely to initiate grappling but has shown an impressive ability to get off the ground, getting out of some seriously deep chokes to come back and find the finish. Della Maddalena has only seen the third round twice in his career, with only a single fight going to a decision. Roberts has won 2 out of his last five fights, with his most impressive wins being over Ramazan Emeev (20-5-0), Zelim Imadaev (8-3-0), and Nathan Coy (15-7-0). Roberts has been in the UFC since 2015, so he’s by no means a newcomer. With a background in boxing, Roberts has a patient, technical style on the feet, definite knockout power in his hands, and a decent arsenal of kicks. One of his best qualities is his movement; Roberts has good footwork and does an excellent job of circling and moving to stay out of the clinch and in the middle of the cage. Roberts has some decent wrestling, landing a takedown in both of his last two wins, but he only pursues grappling when he’s struggling on the feet. With a takedown defense percentage of 57%, “Hot Chocolate” does an excellent job of keeping the fight where he’s most comfortable. Training at Sanford MMA, Roberts doesn’t push much of a pace on the feet and hasn’t landed more than 36 significant strikes in his last five fights. Della Maddalena is the biggest favorite on the card at -550, with Roberts a +400 underdog. I understand why the odds are the way they are; Della Maddalena pushes a crazy pace on the feet, whereas Roberts is much more relaxed and patient. I expect Della Maddalena to storm him and do what he’s been doing, land a ton early and knock his opponent out. I’m taking Della Maddalena by knockout as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Della Maddalena by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Andre Fialho vs. Muslim Salikhov

Welterweight Bout

Andre Fialho: 16-5-0, 13 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Muslim Salikhov: 18-3-0, 12 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Yet another striker vs. striker matchup, this main card continues to excite. Fialho has won three of his last 5 bouts, with his UFC victories coming over Miguel Baeza (10-3-0) and Cameron VanCamp (15-7-1). Fialho may be a relative newcomer to the UFC but is by no means a rookie and has fought in Bellator, PFL, and LFA before joining the UFC. Fialho has a boxing background and devastating power in his hands, throwing with serious explosivity, and is dangerous at all times. Fialho makes up for a lack of volume with power and accuracy, never throwing looping shots and throwing all his punches tight and straight. Training at Sanford MMA, he tends to pressure his opponent immediately and will usually be moving forward, and does a great job of cutting off the cage. While he tends to hang in the pocket and get into brawls, Fialho always stays technical and is willing to eat a shot to land one. Fialho is at his most dangerous early on, with eleven of his 13 career knockouts coming in the first round. Salikhov has found victory in four of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over Franciso Trinaldo (28-9-0), Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0), and Nordine Taleb (15-7-0). Salikhov holds the rank of Master of Sport in Wushu Sanda (Chinese kickboxing) and a pro kickboxing record of 185-13 with 76 wins by knockout. If it wasn’t obvious, Salikhov is an incredibly dangerous striker, with power in his punches and kicks and great head movement. Salikhov has an impressive arsenal of kicks, particularly his array of spinning attacks that he loves to throw. Training at Berkut FC, Salikhov is also very defensively sound, with just 34% of significant strikes attempted on him landing. Salikhov is willing to grapple and averages over one takedown landed per fight in the UFC, but he hasn’t won a fight by submission in 5 years and is far more likely to pursue ground and pound when in top position. This is a close fight, and the bookmakers agree, with Salikhov sitting at -115 and Fialho at -105. I’ll take under 2.5 rounds, I expect this to be a pretty high-paced striking affair, so I’d be surprised to see it go the distance. I don’t think there’s an objective way of predicting a winner here, so I’ll go with my gut and take Salikhov. He has so much striking experience and a much more diverse attack on the feet than Fialho, but they have similar power and speed, so it could be a close one.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Salikhov -115

Chase Sherman vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Heavyweight Bout

Chase Sherman: 16-10-0, 15 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta: 8-0-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

I’m beginning to feel like a broken record; in this bout, we see yet another striker vs. striker matchup and yet another fight I’d be shocked to see the judges involved in. Sherman has won 1 of his last 5 fights and has wins over Ike Villanueva (18-14-0) and Jared Vanderaa (12-10-0). Sherman uses a boxing style on the feet, constantly moving and keeping his head off the center line. He has solid output for a heavyweight and can push a pretty crazy pace, especially early, but he does slow down as the fight continues. Sherman throws plenty of leg kicks at distance and is more than willing to brawl, stepping into the pocket to let big combinations go. Given his brawling tendencies, Sherman can eat a shot and puts power in every punch he throws. Training at Jackson-Wink MMA, he can get flashy with his striking, slipping strikes and countering quickly, often throwing in combination. Sherman has never landed a takedown in the UFC and practically never initiates grappling exchanges, far preferring to keep the fight standing. Acosta is undefeated, with his first UFC fight being a win over Jared Vanderaa (12-10-0). His last bout before entering the UFC was an LFA heavyweight title victory over Thomas Petersen (6-1-0). Acosta is a powerful striker, utilizing a boxing style, and has quick hands for a heavyweight. His best weapon is his right hand, regularly throwing wide hooks and devastating overhands. Although he favors his right, Acosta has power in both hands and is constantly seeking a finish. Training at UKF Gym, Acosta seems to be most at home in a brawl, working inside the pocket and throwing knees and elbows in the clinch. When he lets his hands go, he’s shown he can throw long, technical combinations but will often throw single shots. While he won’t usually initiate grappling exchanges, he has demonstrated a solid ability to get back to his feet. When Acosta is on top, he will often throw plenty of elbows and does a great job of not putting himself in danger to land ground and pound. Acosta is the favorite in this one at -220, with Sherman returning a +180 underdog. Yet another fight where the rounds are easier to pick than the winner, this will easily go under 2.5 rounds. I think Sherman’s record makes him look worse than he is, Acosta is willing to brawl, and Sherman is great at drawing people into them. Still, I like Acosta here; he’s a bit more technically skilled and probably hungrier too.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Cortes-Acosta -220

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Ion Cutelaba

Light Heavyweight Bout

Kennedy Nzechukwu: 10-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Ion Cutelaba: 16-8-1, 12 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

You guessed it; two strikers face off in this matchup. Nzechukwu has found victory in three of his last 5 outings, with wins over Karl Roberson (9-6-0), Danilo Marques (11-4-0), and Carlos Ulberg (8-1-0). Nzechukwu has serious power in both hands and loves to hang in the pocket and throw heavy hooks. Nzechukwu is tied for the tallest active fighter in the division and seemingly always has a significant reach advantage. He rarely stays at distance, preferring to use his boxing in the pocket. With five of his seven career finishes coming in round 2 or later, Nzechukwu can be a bit of a slow starter but turns it up as the fight continues. Training at Fortis MMA, Nzechukwu is exceptionally durable and has gotten himself out of some very tough spots, for instance, surviving a whole round with Danilo Marques on his back. He showed improved grappling in his most recent fight, landing five takedowns and showing excellent top pressure. His size makes him very hard to shake off but also hard to take down, with his takedown defense percentage sitting at 81%. Cutelaba has found victory in 1 of his last five fights, along with a draw, and has wins over Devin Clark (13-7-0) and Khalil Rountree (11-5-0). Famous for his antics at weigh-ins, Cutelaba has earned a reputation as a wild fighter but has focused on his wrestling in recent fights. He’s landed 21 takedowns in just his last four fights and does a great job timing his shots in open space. Cutelaba rarely pursues submissions, usually preferring to smash his opponent with devastating ground and pound (his two submission wins are both by omoplata somehow). On the feet, “The Hulk” has one-punch knockout power in his hands and is always pursuing a finish, never looking to touch up his opponent. Training at CSA Moldova, Cutelaba averages about five strikes landed per minute and never stops pressuring his opponent. Of his twelve knockouts, eleven came in the first round, showing Cutelaba is obviously at his most dangerous early on. Also, 7 of his 13 UFC fights ended in the first round, so he comes out guns blazing with a kill-or-be-killed attitude every single fight. Nzechukwu is the favorite here at -180, with Cutelaba the +155 underdog. Now, this is a bit of a weird one; I fully expect Nzechukwu to win this fight, and he definitely should, but his tendency to start slow hurts him significantly in a fight against a guy who comes out super fast. I will take Nzechukwu moneyline, but under 2.5 rounds is the safer pick.

Picks: Nzechukwu -180, Under 2.5 rounds

#7 Derrick Lewis vs. #12 Serghei Spivac

Heavyweight Bout

Derrick Lewis: 26-10-0, 21 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Serghei Spivac: 15-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

A classic matchup of striker vs. grappler, this is yet another fight I’d be shocked to see go to the judges. Lewis, the record holder for most UFC heavyweight knockouts with 13, comes into this fight having won two of his last 5. Training out of Silverback Fight Club, Lewis has wins over current UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou (17-3-0), #3 ranked heavyweight Curtis Blaydes (17-3-0), and #11 ranked heavyweight Chris Daukaus (12-5-0). Famous for his kill-or-be-killed style, Lewis has some of the most powerful punches in the UFC, arguably only matched by Francis Ngannou. When striking, Lewis has a unique, patient style that he uses to catch his opponents off guard with his massive power. Surprisingly for someone of his stature, he has shown the ability to throw powerful kicks and even the occasional jumping kick but will primarily use his hands to do damage. He doesn’t often initiate grappling exchanges and is well known for his non-technical wrestling style of “just getting up,” but he can do severe damage if he gets on top of someone. Spivac has won 4 of his last five outings and has wins over Augusto Sakai (15-5-1), Aleksei Oleinik (60-17-1), and everyone’s favorite scumbag Greg Hardy (7-5-0). Spivac has a background in sambo, averages just over four takedowns landed per fight, and is highly dangerous on top. Training with Polar Bear Team, Spivac has excellent takedowns and will often shoot early, usually securing takedowns quickly. Spivac is always trying to do damage when he's on top and will throw plenty of damaging ground and pound, particularly elbows. He has great control, is extremely hard to shake off, and is willing to hold half-guard and go to work. On the feet, Spivac mainly uses his hands, usually throwing bombs with his right before getting in close to clinch or go for a takedown. Spivac, like most heavyweights, has heavy hands and the power to put someone’s lights out on the feet but usually won’t spend too much time standing up. Spivac is the favorite at -200, making Lewis a +170 underdog. I can’t even give a proper analysis, I’m far too biased and love Derrick Lewis too much, and I can’t handle seeing him lose again. So with that in mind, I’m taking Lewis by KO/TKO and under 4.5 rounds. MMA gods, please spare us.

Picks: Lewis by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 rounds

UFC 281

Prelims

Andre Petroski vs. Wellington Turman

Middleweight Bout

Andre Petroski: 8-2-0, 4 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Wellington Turman: 18-5-0, 4 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

The first fight of the prelims sees two exciting grapplers faceoff. Petroski has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his UFC victories coming over Micheal Gillmore (6-5-0), Hu Yaozong (3-3-0), and Nick Maximov (8-2-0). Petroski has a background in collegiate wrestling, and it shows, as, in 3 UFC fights, he’s averaging four takedowns landed as well as four submission attempts. Petroski has excellent takedowns and can land them in open space, often timing double legs as his opponent throws strikes. On the ground, Petroski transitions quickly and is always pursuing the finish, whether it’s a submission or ground and pound. Training at Renzo Gracie Philly, he prefers chokes when attempting a submission and won both of his last two fights via choke. Petroski is still developing on the feet, as he tends to swing wildly and load up on every shot. He heavily favors his left hand and throws every punch with maximum power, always coming forward and throwing bombs. Turman has also won 3 of his last five outings, with wins over Misha Cirkunov (15-9-0), Markus Perez (12-6-0), and my dad, Sam Alvey (33-18-1). Turman has solid wrestling and is averaging about two takedowns landed per fight. However, he is much more skilled with his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, holding a blackbelt and averaging about one submission attempt per fight. Turman is willing to strike but often won’t waste much time in attempting a takedown, clinching up, and going to work from there. He won’t often shoot from out in the open and tends to pursue trips and tosses, but he is tenacious and will not give up on takedowns. When he gets it to the mat, he seems just as content to throw ground and pound as pursue submissions and can do both well. With a background in Muay Thai, Turman has some decent kicks and is willing to throw out spinning attacks, both with his kicks and hands. Training at Teixeira MMA, he won’t put out crazy volume on the feet but is constantly pressuring forward, often blitzing into range to throw short combinations. Petroski is the favorite at -210, with Turman returning as a +175 underdog. While I don’t think the skill gap is wide, and Turman holds a higher BJJ belt, I still agree with the oddsmakers. Petroski pushes a much more frantic pace and is considerably more aggressive than Turman, which I think will be enough for him to pick up a finish. I’m going to take Petroski by finish and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Petroski by Finish, Under 2.5 rounds

#12 Erin Blanchfield vs. #15 Molly McCann

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Erin Blanchfield: 9-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Molly McCann: 13-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A matchup of two quickly rising flyweights, this matchup has big implications for the division. Blanchfield has won all of her last five outings, with her UFC wins coming over Sarah Alpar (9-6-0), Miranda Maverick (13-4-0), and JJ Aldrich (11-5-0). Blanchfield is a well-rounded fighter, but her easiest path to victory is her grappling. Having started training Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu at the age of 7, she possesses a black belt and is visibly experienced and highly comfortable on the ground. She’s tough to shake off, has great control, and often seems one step ahead of her opponent on the ground. Training at Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, Blanchfield has excellent takedowns and is averaging four takedowns landed per fight in her short UFC tenure. She is constantly advancing position when she does get it to the floor. On the feet, she works behind her jab and usually throws in combination. She has a solid arsenal of kicks and throws all of them quickly, and she has some especially dangerous high kicks. McCann has won 3 of her last five fights, with her most recent victories coming over Hannah Goldy (6-3-0), Luana Carolina (8-3-0), and Ji Yeon Kim (9-6-2). McCann is the textbook definition of a brawler, never staying at distance and always getting inside the pocket to let big combinations fly. McCann throws everything with power and rarely throws single shots, mixing up her attack well between the head and body. Training at Next Generation UK, she’s always pressing forward and is more than willing to eat a shot to land one, usually resulting in wars on the feet. McCann does average nearly two takedowns landed per fight and is willing to grapple, holding a purple belt in BJJ. If she takes the fight to the mat, she’s much more likely to pursue ground and pound than a submission, shown in her record. McCann quickly became one of the most exciting flyweights, often throwing spinning attacks like the brutal spinning elbow she landed on Luana Carolina. Blanchfield is a sizeable favorite at -400, with McCann a +310 underdog. It’s tough to pick against Molly McCann, but if Blanchfield can get this fight to the mat, I think it’s a done deal. Don’t get me wrong, McCann is basically living proof of “a puncher’s chance” and is never truly out of a fight, but Blanchfield is such a high-level grappler I think she’ll ultimately drown her on the mat. I’ll take Blanchfield moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Blanchfield -400, Over 2.5 rounds

#7 Dominick Reyes vs. #12 Ryan Spann

Light Heavyweight Bout

Dominick Reyes: 12-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Ryan Spann: 20-7-0, 5 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.

I would be utterly shocked to see this fight go to the judges, let alone a third round, and I can’t wait for it. Reyes has won 2 of his last 5 fights, with his best wins coming over former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman (15-6-0), #2 ranked middleweight Jared Cannonier (15-6-0), and #10 ranked light heavyweight Volkan Oezdemir (18-7-0). Reyes is a lengthy striker who is at his most dangerous in the first round, with all of his career finishes coming in round one. Training at Cage Combat Academy, he usually opens up with plenty of heavy kicks, both high and low, and picks his shots when he does let his hands go. Considering how many first-round finishes he has, he doesn’t push a crazy pace, and with all of his finish losses coming in the second round or later, he seems to fade as the fight continues. Reyes has excellent takedown defense, having defended 80% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC, and he usually gets off his back quickly if he is taken to the mat. He does have decent wrestling in his back pocket but tends to only resort to it when he’s hurt or losing and has only landed two takedowns in his UFC career. Spann has found victory in three of his last five outings and has wins over Misha Cirkunov (15-9-0), Ion Cutelaba (16-8-1), and Devin Clark (13-7-0). Like his opponent, Spann is incredibly dangerous in the first round, with 15 of his 17 career finishes coming in the first round. All his knockouts came in the first round, with ten of his twelve submissions also coming in the first round, so he comes out guns blazing every fight. Spann is dangerous on top and on his back, especially if he can get ahold of his opponent’s neck, with all of his submission wins coming via some form of choke, with nine of those being guillotines. On the feet, Spann throws everything with fight-ending intentions and possesses one-shot knockout power, especially in his right hand. Training at Fortis MMA, Spann fights with a kill-or-be-killed mentality on the feet and on the ground, with 5 of his seven losses coming via finish and only three of his wins coming via decision. Reyes is a -220 favorite, with Spann a +180 underdog. Before I even start thinking about a winner, this is probably the easiest under 2.5 rounds pick of all time, given how both are prolific first-round finishers and rarely win decisions. With the skid Reyes has been on, I’m surprised he’s as big of a favorite as he is, but it makes some sense. Reyes is much more technical and patient on the feet and is very hard to take down, potentially presenting problems for Spann. I’m going to take Reyes to bounce back and pick up a finish.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Reyes by Finish

Brad Riddell vs. Renato Moicano

Lightweight Bout

Brad Riddell: 10-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Renato Moicano: 16-5-1, 0 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

This fight is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, and it should be fun. Riddell comes into this fight with three wins in his last five fights and has wins over Drew Dober (25-11-0), Jamie Mullarkey (15-5-0), and Alex Da Silva (21-4-0). Riddell is a credentialed kickboxer with a pro record of 59-10 and fought in promotions such as Glory and ONE. Riddell is an excellent Muay Thai striker, possessing fast hands and even quicker kicks. He’s dangerous both at range and in the pocket but does his best work inside a phone booth where he can land big combinations. Training at City Kickboxing, Riddell does an excellent job of varying his strikes, attacking the head, body, and legs evenly. He has shown solid cardio and carries his speed and power across all 15 minutes, making him dangerous at any time. Despite his background, Riddell has solid grappling credentials, holding a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fight in his UFC tenure. It seems he often resorts to his grappling when things aren’t going his way on the feet, but he is willing to work for takedowns along the fence to get on top and land ground and pound. Moicano has similarly won three of his last five fights and has wins over #7 ranked featherweight Calvin Kattar (23-7-0), Alexander Hernandez (13-5-0), and Cub Swanson (28-13-0). Moicano is more well-rounded than his record shows, as he holds a black belt in BJJ but also a black belt in Muay Thai. In his 13 UFC fights, only 4 of them have gone the distance, but he has shown he has the cardio to go a full 25 minutes. Moicano often won’t waste too much time before shooting in for a takedown, usually securing them quickly and immediately advancing position on the ground. Moicano is dangerous on top but especially dangerous if he takes his opponent’s back, with all nine of his career submissions coming via rear-naked choke. He’s aggressive on the ground, always trying to move to a better position, but he is also intelligent and rarely puts himself in danger. On the feet, Moicano has solid speed and power in his hands and loves to throw uppercuts and elbows when in close. Training at American Top Team, Moicano will often pick his shots, waiting for openings to land combinations or attempt a takedown. Moicano is the slight favorite in this fight at -125, making Riddell a +105 favorite. Like most striker vs. grappler matchups, this will be a question of who does their specialty better. If it stays on the feet, Riddell should be able to find a win, but if it goes to the ground, Moicano should be able to secure a choke. It’s a tough choice, but coming off that quick submission loss in his last fight, there might now be a bit of a playbook for beating Riddell, and Moicano is an incredibly dangerous submission artist. I’ll take Moicano by submission and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Moicano by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

#12 Dan Hooker vs. Claudio Puelles

Lightweight Bout

Dan Hooker: 21-12-0, 10 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Claudio Puelles: 13-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Yet another striker vs. grappler matchup is found in the first fight of the main card, and it’s a good one. Hooker has won one of his last 5 bouts and holds wins over #5 ranked welterweight Gilbert Burns (20-5-0), Al Iaquinta (14-7-1), and Jim Miller (35-16-0). Hooker is an excellent striker with a kickboxing background, holding a professional kickboxing record of 13-1. Hooker is at his best when he’s controlling the center of the cage and pressuring forward, using his hands and patented knees to damage his opponents. Hooker is a devastating clinch striker, possessing some of the most brutal knees ever seen in the UFC and great dirty boxing. Training at City Kickboxing, Hooker varies his strikes very well, attacking the head and body evenly and throwing from different angles. Hooker has solid takedown defense and is willing to grapple, averaging just under one takedown landed per fight and holding a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Hooker uses his skills in the clinch to get in on takedowns and is willing to work along the cage to secure takedowns, focusing on ground and pound once he does take the fight to the mat. He has an underrated submission game and won’t often pursue them, seemingly finding a lot of them defensively, like pulling guillotines while defending a takedown. Puelles has found victory in all of his last five outings, with wins over Clay Guida (37-19-0), Chris Gruetzemacher (15-5-0), and Jordan Leavitt (10-2-0). Puelles has a purple belt in Luta Livre, a background we don’t see many fighters having these days. Puelles averages about three takedowns landed per fight and has shown he doesn’t have the most refined wrestling but is committed to getting the fight to the mat and will work hard to do so. Of his seven career submission wins, 4 of them are kneebars, making him even more of a unique grappler and incredibly dangerous off his back. He has excellent scrambles and some creative takedown defense and won’t stay on his back long if he’s taken down, usually getting up quickly or threatening a submission. Training at Sanford MMA, he’s a patient grappler and won’t rush anything, generally staying in safe positions and not throwing much ground and pound. On the feet, Puelles has a background in Muay Thai and tends to throw a lot of single shots and naked kicks. He will be aggressive in the standup but often doesn’t waste much time before clinching up or shooting for a takedown. Hooker is the favorite here at -155, with Puelles a +130 underdog. Despite the skid Hooker has been on, I still have to pick him in this one. He pushes a much faster pace than Puelles and has proven he has the takedown defense to keep the fighting standing and, honestly, should have the grappling prowess to stay out of danger on the mat. Hooker’s aggression should be enough to secure him the win. I’ll take Hooker by finish and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Hooker by Finish, Under 2.5 rounds

#12 Frankie Edgar vs. Chris Gutierrez

Bantamweight Bout

Frankie Edgar: 23-10-1, 6 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Chris Gutierrez: 18-3-2, 8 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

This fight sees one fighter on the rise and one on his way out. Edgar is a former UFC lightweight champion and has won 1 of his last 5 outings, and he has wins over former UFC champions BJ Penn (16-14-2), Sean Sherk (36-4-1), and Charles Oliveira (33-9-0). Edgar is one of the most respected fighters of all time and is a very well-rounded fighter, but he is an exceptionally skilled grappler. Averaging over two takedowns landed per fight, Edgar has a background in collegiate wrestling and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is incredibly dangerous if he can get top position. Training at Ricardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu, Edgar has excellent takedowns that he can land in open space, mixing them with his striking and never rushing to take the fight to the ground. On the feet, Edgar is in perpetual motion, never staying in one spot for more than a few seconds, making him very hard to hit (yes, I know he’s been knocked out twice in a row, but I don’t care). He has excellent fight IQ and rarely throws single shots, always looking for openings before entering the pocket to unleash quick combinations. Edgar has gone five rounds numerous times in his career, so he can easily go a full 15 minutes if he has to. Gutierrez has won 4 of his last five fights with one draw, with his best wins coming over Batgerel Danaa (12-4-0), Vince Morales (11-6-0), and Andre Ewell (18-9-0). Gutierrez is a shifty striker who has proven very hard to hit through his use of movement and footwork. Gutierrez has powerful kicks and excellent hand speed, often throwing plenty of leg kicks before moving in to let his hands go. Averaging about 60 significant strikes landed per fight in the UFC, Gutierrez puts out decent volume while always remaining technical and fighting behind his jab. Gutierrez tends to float around the outside, never favoring one particular weapon and constantly switching stances. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, he won’t often initiate grappling exchanges but has shown some solid takedown defense, having defended 73% of takedowns attempted on him. He’s also shown he has good clinch work and holds a purple belt in BJJ, so he can grapple if he needs to. Gutierrez is the favorite at -230, with Edgar a +190 underdog. This is an exciting matchup; both guys have similar styles on the feet and are hard to hit, so it could end up a technical kickboxing match. As sad as it makes me, I have to go against Edgar here; I think Gutierrez is just too fast and slick for him, but I think it’ll still be relatively close and a good way for a legend to ride off into the sunset. I’m taking Gutierrez moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Gutierrez -230, Over 2.5 rounds

#2 Dustin Poirier vs. #5 Michael Chandler

Lightweight Bout

Dustin Poirier: 28-7-0, 15 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Michael Chandler: 23-7-0, 11 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

This is being called the people’s main event, and I find that to be accurate. Poirier has won 3 of his last five fights and has wins over former UFC champions Conor McGregor (22-6-0), Max Holloway (23-7-0), and Eddie Alvarez (30-8-0). Poirier has been in the UFC for 12 years and is well-known as one of the best boxers in the sport, having power and speed in both hands. He can also push a serious pace, averaging 94 significant strikes landed in his last five wins. Training at American Top Team, he’s one of the more well-rounded fighters in the division, averaging over one takedown landed per fight and one submission attempt. While he is entirely willing to get into a standup war and has numerous times, he does mix it up and is willing to shoot for a takedown early on, making use of his black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He’s exceptionally well experienced and seemingly has fought everyone the featherweight and lightweight divisions have to offer, and he can finish a fight from anywhere. Chandler has won 3 of his last five bouts and has wins over former UFC lightweight champions Benson Henderson (29-11-0) and Eddie Alvarez (30-8-0) and current Bellator lightweight champion Patricky Freire (24-10-0). Chandler is a former three-time Bellator lightweight champion who entered the UFC in 2021 after a decade in Scott Coker’s promotion, so despite being a UFC newcomer, he’s by no means a rookie. Like his opponent, he’s exceptionally well-rounded and comfortable anywhere the fight goes. Chandler is well known for his collegiate wrestling pedigree, averaging nearly two takedowns landed per fight in the UFC and over one submission attempt per fight. Chandler can finish on top with ground and pound or a submission, especially if he gets ahold of his opponent’s neck, with all of his career submissions coming via some form of choke. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Chandler is just as dangerous on the feet as he is on the ground, having excellent power in his hands and a great chin. He’s a true wildcard, his fights can end in the first 30 seconds or end up a 15-minute war, but one way or another, his fights are always entertaining. Poirier is the favorite in this fight at -230, with Chandler a +190 underdog. Both guys are very similar and have similar career paths, making it extremely hard to pick a winner (or the rounds, for that matter). I guess I just have to go with my Bias and take Poirier; he’s got better striking and is a good enough grappler to keep up with Chandler on the ground. In terms of rounds, this could be a war, or someone could go to sleep early, so it isn’t very good to try and predict. I’ll take over 2.5 rounds; I’m hoping it’s an all-out brawl for three rounds.

Picks: Poirier -230, Over 2.5 rounds

(C) Carla Esparza vs. #2 Zhang Weili

Women’s Strawweight Title Bout

Carla Esparza: 20-6-0, 4 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Zhang Weili: 22-3-0, 11 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

A familiar spot for both fighters, we’ll see two top-level fighters face off for the belt. Esparza has won all of her last five fights and has wins over current #3 strawweight Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2), #6 strawweight Yan Xiaonan (13-3-0), and #10 strawweight Michelle Waterson (18-9-0). Esparza has been one of the best wrestlers in the division for a long time, and it’s always her easiest path to victory. Averaging over three takedowns a fight, Esparza is effective everywhere, able to land takedowns in the clinch or open space. Training at Team Oyama, when on the ground, Esparza has excellent top control and ground and pound, often controlling her opponents for entire fights. Esparza usually looks for takedowns early and avoids striking exchanges. Still, her constant pursuit of grappling exchanges makes her a bit more unpredictable on the feet, as her opponents always anticipate the takedown. Esparza doesn’t have crazy power in her hands and is far more likely to put you away with volume than strength, but surprisingly only has two finishes in her UFC career. Weili has found victory in three of her last five outings and has wins over former UFC champions Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-5-0) and Jessica Andrade (23-9-0), as well as #8 ranked strawweight Tecia Torres (13-6-0). Weili pushes a serious pace on both the feet and the ground and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. Weili might be the most powerful puncher in the division, made even more dangerous by her accuracy and ability to stay technical while still throwing bombs. Training at Fight Ready, Weili varies her strikes well, attacking both the head and body and does a great job of mixing kicks into combinations. She is willing to grapple, averaging over two takedowns landed per fight, and will immediately start punching away if she gets on top of her opponent. Like she does on the feet, Weili always looks for the finish on the mat, transitioning quickly and throwing devastating ground and pound. She has a purple belt in BJJ and a victory via armbar in the UFC, so she has submission ability but is more likely to try to drive her opponent’s head through the canvas. In a rare case of a champion being the underdog, Weili is the favorite at -340 and Esparza the underdog at +270, making her the biggest underdog of the main card and second biggest on the whole card. This shouldn’t surprise anyone; while Esparza is a great fighter, Weili is much stronger, faster, and more aggressive. Quite frankly, I think Weili should run through her and fast. I’m taking Weili by finish and under 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Weili by Finish, Under 4.5 rounds

(C) Israel Adesanya vs. #4 Alex Pereira

Middleweight Title Bout

Israel Adesanya: 23-1-0, 15 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Alex Pereira: 6-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

There’s not much I can say about this fight that hasn’t already been said; it should be excellent. Adesanya has found victory in 4 of his last five outings and has wins over former UFC middleweight champions Anderson Silva (34-11-0) and Robert Whittaker (25-6-0), as well as #3 ranked middleweight Marvin Vettori (18-6-1). Adesanya is often considered the best striker in MMA for a good reason, as he has proven to be virtually unstoppable on the feet. Although some of his more recent fights have had a slower pace, he’s still averaging about 85 significant strikes landed in his last five fights and does throw with decent volume. He’s incredibly elusive on the feet and rarely takes significant damage, always moving and keeping his head off the centerline. Training at City Kickboxing, Adesanya has moved away from the knockout focus as of late and will often float around the outside, touching his opponent up with punches and kicks. He has an excellent variety of kicks and does a great job of varying his attacks, making it very hard to tell what he’ll throw next and where. Pereira has won all of his last five fights, with his UFC victories coming over Andreas Michailidis (13-6-0), Bruno Silva (22-8-0), and #7 ranked middleweight Sean Strickland (25-4-0). If you somehow didn’t know, Pereira has already beaten Adesanya twice in kickboxing, once by brutal knockout, which is why he’s been rocketed to the top of the division. Pereira is a former Glory Kickboxing middleweight and light heavyweight champion and holds a pro kickboxing record of 40-7. Pereira is notorious for having the most destructive left hook in combat sports and loves letting it fly. To back up his heavy hands, he has just as heavy kicks, which he’ll often use to find his range before getting into the pocket to throw big hooks and devastating knees. He’s comfortable on the outside as well as controlling the middle, but is most dangerous when he takes the center and cuts off his opponent. Training at Teixeira MMA, Pereira doesn’t move a ton on the feet and sometimes stands straight in front of his opponent, waiting for them to throw something so he can fire back. His takedown defense has shown to be decent, but he also can get back to his feet if he is taken down. Adesanya is the favorite here at -220, making Pereira a +180 underdog. I know Pereira is supposed to be the guy to dethrone Adesanya, but we already went through this once with Paulo Costa, and we saw how that turned out. I think Pereira will definitely push Adesanya harder than he has been recently, and it’ll be an entertaining fight. Still, Pereira’s lack of movement hurts him since Adesanya is so quick and mobile. I’m going to take Adesanya moneyline, but I really have no clue about the rounds. It’s hard to see this fight going to a decision for some reason, so I’ll take under 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Adesanya -220, Under 4.5 rounds

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos

Prelims

Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young

Flyweight Bout

Miranda Maverick: 12-4-0, 1 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Shanna Young: 8-5-0, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

This fight is a rematch in a matchup of great young contenders, with their first meeting coming in the Invicta FC Flyweight Tournament in 2019. Maverick would go on to win that bout via first-round submission and comes into this fight with wins in 3 of her last 5 outings. Her most impressive victories came over Sabina Mazo (9-4-0), Gillian Robertson (10-7-0), and Liana Jojua (8-5-0), along with what is in my opinion one of the worst judged split decision losses of all time to Maycee Barber (11-2-0). Training with Team Elevation, Maverick has good power in her hands and is willing to exchange in the pocket, and has shown a solid chin, having never been finished in her career. She rarely throws single shots, typically throwing big combinations while mixing in an array of kicks. Maverick is constantly moving, and does a good job of changing levels with her strikes, particularly with her kicks, throwing to the head, legs, and body evenly. She is an excellent grappler, willing to work hard against the cage to get takedowns, and transitions very quickly once she does get the fight to the mat. She’s more likely to pursue a submission than ground and pound but has the power to finish people if she chooses to do so. Young has found victory in 2 of her last 5 fights, with those wins coming over Gina Mazany (7-6-0) and Maiju Suotama (1-4-0). She has a black belt in karate and shows it in her striking style, with a wide stance, plenty of lead leg attacks, and powerful straights. Young has powerful kicks, often adding them to the end of combinations or throwing them out in the open. Training at Knoxville Martial Arts Academy, Young is at her best when she’s controlling the middle of the octagon, using her lead leg and combinations to pick her opponents apart. She does also have a grappling background, having been an All-American wrestler in college, and will usually pursue ground and pound if she’s in top position. “The Shanimal” (yikes) doesn’t usually initiate grappling exchanges but has the cardio and experience to grapple if she needs to, remaining calm even in tough spots. Maverick is the second biggest favorite on the card at -575, making Young a +425 underdog. I side with the oddsmakers on this one, I expect Maverick to overwhelm Young and pick up a finish, similar to their first fight. I’ll take both under 2.5 rounds as well as Maverick by finish.

Picks: Maverick by Finish, Under 2.5 rounds

Darrick Minner vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Featherweight Bout

Darrick Minner: 26-13-0, 1 KO/TKO, 22 Sub.

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke: 38-10-0, 18 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.

This fight sees two excellent grapplers with different styles collide in the octagon. Minner has won 2 of his last 5 fights, with those coming over Charles Rosa (14-8-0) and TJ Laramie (12-5-0). Minner has averaged over 2 takedowns landed per fight as well as almost 3 submission attempts per fight in his UFC career, and is most comfortable on the mat. Training at Glory MMA, Minner is submission focused when he gets the fight to the floor, always trying to advance position and get ahold of his opponent’s neck. He has 22 career submission wins with 16 of those being chokes, 10 of those chokes being guillotines, which he’s willing to pursue at just about any time. On the feet, Minner usually uses a boxing style, throwing plenty of hooks to set up his grappling and takedowns. Minner won’t throw out a ton of punches on the ground or on the feet and is much more focused on finding a submission or getting to a better position. Nuerdanbieke has found victory in 4 of his last 5 outings, with his two UFC wins coming over Sean Soriano (14-9-0) and TJ Brown (16-9-0). Nuerdanbieke tends to come out of the gate pretty hot, getting right into the pocket and throwing big hooks. He’s constantly moving on the feet, often loading up and throwing single shots, but his volume increases as the fight continues. Training at China Top Team, Nuerdanbieke has a wrestling background and is averaging 3 takedowns landed per fight in his brief UFC tenure. Despite his willingness to brawl he’s more comfortable on the ground, seemingly always looking for angles to shoot in for a takedown. Nuerdanbieke doesn’t seem to chase submissions too hard but also won’t throw a ton of ground and pound, often just controlling his opponent for minutes at a time. He does have great top control and is very hard to get out from under, so he doesn’t have to push a crazy pace to win fights. Nuerdanbieke is the favorite at -200, with Minner a +170 underdog. I understand the odds here, but I disagree with them. Nuerdanbieke does have better wins and an advantage on the feet, but I don’t think he has the grappling advantage. Minner is much more active both off his back and on top, whereas Nuerdanbieke is a bit of a lay-and-pray guy. If this fight ends up on the ground, which I think it will, I think Minner can pull out a submission. I’ll take Minner moneyline and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Minner +170, Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

Grant Dawson vs. Mark O. Madsen

Lightweight Bout

Grant Dawson: 18-1-1, 4 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.

Mark O. Madsen: 12-0-0, 3 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Another excellent matchup of talented grapplers, this should be an entertaining fight. Dawson has never lost in the UFC, holding victories over Jared Gordon (19-5-0), Leonardo Santos (18-7-1), and Julian Erosa (28-10-0). Dawson is an excellent grappler and is most comfortable on the mat, often shooting early and usually gaining takedowns with apparent ease. He’s averaging nearly 4 takedowns landed per fight in his UFC career and has great control, especially on the back. He’s seemingly never resting on the ground, always throwing punches or pursuing a submission. Of his 12 career submissions, 10 of them are rear-naked chokes, so Dawson is incredibly dangerous if he can get his opponent’s neck. On the feet Dawson uses a boxing style, keeping his hands high and throwing every shot with power. Training at American Top Team, he has decent head movement and usually doesn’t get hit too much, usually fighting behind his jab and staying technical. He is willing to throw some flashier attacks though, with the occasional question mark kick or flying knee. Madsen is undefeated, with his last three UFC wins coming over Vince Pichel (14-3-0), Clay Guida (37-19-0), and Austin Hubbard (14-6-0). Madsen is a former Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler, winning a silver medal at the 2016 Olympic Games, and has a litany of amateur wrestling experience. In his short time in the UFC Madsen is averaging about 4 takedowns landed per fight, and given his background he usually secures his takedowns inside the clinch. Madsen has smothering top control and prefers ground and pound to submissions, and has the cardio to grapple for 15 minutes. Training at Fight Ready, Madsen has shown a surprising willingness to strike and often doesn’t seem to be in any rush to take the fight to the mat. On the feet, Madsen will throw leg kicks at range before darting into the pocket to throw big combinations. He’ll regularly dip his head and throw big overhands, and is willing to eat a shot to land one. He might be a little too willing to strike as he will almost always have a wrestling advantage, but he has shown that he has good hands and is yet to get damaged on the feet. Dawson is a -220 favorite with Madsen returning as a +180 underdog. This fight is closer than the odds suggest, as Dawson is more than willing to grapple and Madsen has quite the pedigree. I still don’t disagree with the oddsmakers though, I think Dawson is a more well-rounded fighter and is more active on the ground, and could be the first guy to put Madsen in tough spots when grappling. I’ll take Dawson by finish and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Dawson by Finish, Under 2.5 rounds

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Nate Maness

Bantamweight Bout

Tagir Ulanbekov: 13-2-0, 1 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Nate Maness: 14-2-0, 5 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Two rising prospects meet in this bout. Ulanbekov has won 4 of his last 5 outings, with his UFC wins coming over Allan Nascimento (19-6-0) and Bruno Silva (12-6-2). Ulanbekov is one of the many Dagestani fighters in the UFC, and like many of them, trains at Eagles MMA with Khabib Nurmagomedov. That alone should pretty much explain his fighting style, but if you couldn’t guess he has a sambo background. Ulanbekov has averaged over 3 takedowns landed per fight in his short UFC tenure, and is an excellent grappler. He is a tenacious wrestler and never accepts bad positions, always moving and looking to land ground and pound. Ulanbekov is efficient on the ground, not wasting energy or putting himself in dangerous spots. There’s not much to be said, he does exactly what you’d expect; get an early takedown then control his opponent while occasionally throwing ground and pound. Maness has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with his UFC victories coming over Tony Gravely (23-8-0), Luke Sanders (13-5-0), and Johnny Munoz (11-2-0). Maness is tall for bantamweight and uses it well, throwing plenty of long straights and head kicks at distance. Maness has a lightning-fast right hand and tends to land his biggest shots with it, especially his right straight. He has shown a great ability to recover, having taken big damage and coming back to win in multiple of his UFC fights. Training at Salvation MMA, Maness averages just over 1 takedown landed per fight and has solid wrestling, but tends to use it in a more sprawl-and-brawl style. Maness is comfortable in a technical striking match as well as a dirty brawl and has won Performance of the Night bonuses in 2 of his 3 UFC wins. Ulanbekov is the favorite in this one at -210, making Maness a +175 underdog. This is a tough look for Maness as he’s once again facing another Khabib-trained wrestler, having taken a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov (15-0-0) in his last fight. While that does make me want to believe he’ll be more prepared as I’m sure the Khabib’s game plan is unchanged, I have a feeling it won’t matter. Begrudgingly, I’m taking Ulanbekov moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Ulanbekov -210, Over 2.5 rounds

Chase Sherman vs. Josh Parisian

Heavyweight Bout

Chase Sherman: 16-10-0, 15 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Josh Parisian: 15-5-0, 11 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

A classic matchup of two big boy scrappers, I’d be shocked if this fight went to a decision. Sherman has won 1 of his last 5 fights and has wins over Ike Villanueva (18-14-0) and Jared Vanderaa (12-10-0). Sherman uses a boxing style on the feet, constantly moving and keeping his head off the center line. He has solid output for a heavyweight and can push a pretty crazy pace especially early, but does slow down as the fight goes on. Sherman throws plenty of leg kicks at distance and is more than willing to brawl, stepping into the pocket to let big combinations go. Given his brawling tendencies, Sherman can eat a shot and puts power in every punch he throws. Training at Jackson-Wink MMA, he can get flashy with his striking at times, slipping strikes and countering quickly, often throwing in combination. Sherman has never landed a takedown in the UFC and practically never initiates grappling exchanges, far preferring to keep the fight standing. Parisian has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with those wins coming over Alan Baudot (8-4-0), Roque Martinez (15-8-2), and Chad Johnson (6-4-0). Parisian is always moving on the feet, using a lot of feints and his jab to establish distance. He has a solid kicking game, particularly to the body, and has an absolute granite chin. Parisian will throw out plenty of front kicks and often dips his head to slip and counter with big shots. While I think Parisian is a bit too technical to call him a brawler, he is more than willing to get into brawls and exchange shots in the pocket. Training at Scorpion Fighting System, Parisian throws in relatively high volume for a heavyweight but does have that classic heavyweight cardio and can gas himself out chasing a finish. He is willing to grapple and has shown some solid takedown ability, and will pour down ground and pound if he secures top position. It seems Parisian mostly resorts to his wrestling when he’s losing the striking exchanges but is just as comfortable on the mat as he is standing up. Sherman is the favorite here at -130 with Parisian returning as a +110 underdog. Honestly, I’m a little surprised by the odds here when comparing their records and UFC tenures, but Sherman is quicker and a bit slipperier than Parisian. If this fight stays on the feet Sherman should be able to get it done with his advantage in speed and movement, but he’s in trouble if Parisian takes him down. Nonetheless, I’ll take Sherman by knockout and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Sherman by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

#13 Neil Magny vs. #14 Daniel Rodriguez

Welterweight Bout

Neil Magny: 26-10-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Daniel Rodriguez: 17-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

A matchup of two well-rounded veterans, this should be a great fight. Magny has won 3 of his last 5 fights and has wins over former UFC welterweight champions Robbie Lawler (29-16-0) and Johny Hendricks (18-8-0), as well as #6 ranked welterweight Geoff Neal (15-4-0). Magny is entering his 9th year in the promotion and his experience shows in the cage, as he’s seemingly comfortable everywhere. Magny is tall for the division and uses it well, staying at distance on the feet and picking his opponents apart with his punches. His best weapon is probably his cardio, Magny can and has gone 25 minutes and he always pushes a heavy pace, always touching up his opponents or working for takedowns. Training at Elevation Fight Team, Magny is excellent at using his length inside the clinch, often landing knees and elbows as well as scoring takedowns. Averaging over 2 takedowns landed per fight Magny’s easiest path to victory is to take it to the mat, which he usually succeeds in doing. Magny stays technical across the entire fight, never overexerting himself or putting himself in significant danger. Rodriguez has found victory in four of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over Mike Perry (14-8-0), Tim Means (32-14-1), and Kevin Lee (19-7-0). Rodriguez’s build is a bit deceptive for how he fights, using a Muay Thai style, although he does favor his hands over his kicks. Rodriguez is a great technical striker, fighting behind his jab and always pushing for a finish, but stays technical over 3 rounds. Training at Syndicate MMA, Rodriguez has great movement and footwork on the feet, attacking from different angles with a variety of strikes. “D-Rod” has some very fast kicks, usually throwing to the legs at the beginning and end combinations. He has also proven to possess serious toughness, exhibited in his incredible comeback against Dwight Grant (11-6-0) in one of my personal favorite one-round fights of all time. He’s unlikely to initiate grappling, but has solid takedown defense and is usually able to get back to his feet where he’s most comfortable. Magny is a slight favorite here at -120, with Rodriguez a +120 underdog. Picking a winner is super tough here, so I’ll start on the rounds. I like this fight to go over 2.5 rounds, Magny is super tough and I’d be surprised if he got finished on the feet, and I’d be equally surprised to see Magny take Rodriguez out on the ground. I think I have to go with Magny here, his ability to control his opponents and make them fight his fight should be enough, plus I think he will be able to take Rodriguez down and keep him there.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Magny -120

#3 Marina Rodriguez vs. #7 Amanda Lemos

Women’s Strawweight Bout

Marina Rodriguez: 16-1-2, 6 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Amanda Lemos: 12-2-1, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

This main event sees to exciting strikers square off in an important fight for the strawweight division. Rodriguez has won 3 of her last 5 fights with one draw, with her best wins coming over Amanda Ribas (11-2-0), Michelle Waterson (18-9-0), and Mackenzie Dern (11-2-0). Rodriguez is an excellent striker, using a technical Muay Thai style to batter her opponents. She carries great power in her hands for the weight class, often landing big shots with her right, and has a solid arsenal of kicks as well. Rodriguez can throw with both volume and power, averaging about 79 significant strikes in her last 5 fights. Training at Thai Brazil, she has great hand speed and is averaging 5 significant strikes landed per minute in her UFC tenure. Rodriguez never throws single strikes, usually blitzing forward and throwing in combination. Rodriguez rarely initiates grappling exchanges but has shown solid takedown defense and has a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. She possesses great footwork and is always moving, which also makes her much harder to take down. Lemos has won 4 of her last 5 fights, with her best wins coming over Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-10-0), Livinha Souza (14-4-0), and Mizuki Inoue (14-6-0). Lemos is a knockout artist, having 8 first-round finishes in her career with 3 of those coming in the UFC. She has crazy power for the division in both hands and has knocked people out with her jab. Lemos won’t push a crazy pace on the feet, making up for volume with power and accuracy, landing at a 57% accuracy rate. Training at Marajo Brothers Team, Lemos is at her best when she’s controlling the center of the octagon and pressuring her opponent, throwing plenty of devastating front kicks and leg kicks when at distance. She averages about 1 takedown landed per fight in the UFC and is willing to grapple, and has shown a slick submission game, particularly her guillotine. If she does end up in top position, she’ll often rain down ground and pound until securing a finish. Rodriguez is the favorite in this one at -210, making Lemos a +175 underdog. As usual, I have to admit my bias, I love watching Rodriguez fight and hold a grudge against Lemos for winning what I think was a bad decision against Angela Hill (14-12-0). Besides that though, I think Rodriguez is a much more polished striker and pushes a much faster pace, and this could easily be the first time Lemos ever has to go 5 rounds. I’ll take Rodriguez moneyline and over 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Rodriguez -210, Over 4.5 rounds.

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen

Prelims

Chase Hooper vs. Steve Garcia

Featherweight Bout

Chase Hooper: 11-2-1, 4 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Steve Garcia: 12-5-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A classic matchup of a veteran and an up-and-comer, this is an interesting fight. Hooper has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his UFC victories coming over Felipe Colares (10-4-0), Peter Barrett (11-6-0), and Daniel Teymur (7-4-0). Hooper is best known for his grappling skills, possessing a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and some excellent submission abilities. He tends to go for the takedown early, landing on average over 1 takedown per fight, usually being most effective when using trips in the clinch as opposed to shooting out in the open. He also averages over 2 submission attempts per fight and does prefer to find a finish via tap out as opposed to ground and pound. Training at Combat Sport and Fitness, Hooper is one of the tallest fighters in the division at 6’1 and has been showing improved striking in his recent fights. He will use his length to throw kicks at range, then will blitz forward throwing big combinations, typically to set up a takedown. Garcia has similarly won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his lone UFC win coming over Charlie Ontiveros (11-9-0). Although he only has three UFC fights, Garcia fought 7 times in Bellator, so he’s been fighting at the top level for a while. Training at Jackson-Wink MMA, Garcia is a well-rounded fighter with a kickboxing background, with a tendency to get wild on the feet. He’s always coming forward, more than willing to bang in the pocket and make fights dirty. He’s shown an ability to pull off slam takedowns, as well as having solid top control and damaging ground and pound. It seems he resorts to his wrestling when things aren’t going his way on the feet, but will throw some damaging elbows if he does get on top. His wild nature on the feet hasn’t always worked in his favor, getting put out cold in his last fight against Maheshate (9-1-0), and getting dropped multiple times in his fight with Ontiveros before pulling off a comeback win. Hooper is the favorite in this fight at -260, with Garcia a +210 underdog. This feels like a bit of an easy one, Garcia has been dominated by grapplers before, being controlled for 13 minutes in a loss to Luis Pena (11-4-0). When you add that with how devastatingly he was put away in his last fight, it’s hard not to pick Hooper here. I’ll take Hooper by finish, but I’m going to take a risk and go over 2.5 rounds. Hooper seems to have a tendency to win fights super late, so I don’t love the under.

Picks: Hooper by Finish, Over 2.5 rounds

Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima

Heavyweight Bout

Andrei Arlovski: 34-20-0, 17 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Marcos Rogerio De Lima: 19-9-0, 13 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Two respected heavyweights face off for the first time in an excellent matchup. Arlovski has won 4 of his last 5 fights and is a former UFC Heavyweight Champion, holding victories over former UFC heavyweight champions Frank Mir (19-13-0), Fabricio Werdum (24-9-1), and Tim Sylvia (31-10-0). One of the most accomplished fighters in UFC history, Arlovski is the all-time heavyweight record holder for wins, total fights, total strikes, and significant strikes landed, and total fight time. With his first UFC bout coming in 2000, Arlovski is extremely experienced and comfortable everywhere. In his late career, he uses his speed and footwork to hurt his opponents more than his power, averaging about 75 significant strikes landed per fight in his last 5 victories. Training at American Top Team, Arlovski rarely throws single shots, often dipping his head and throwing combinations. “The Pitbull” doesn’t tend to initiate grappling exchanges but has great takedown defense, defending 76% of takedowns attempted on him in his 38-fight tenure. De Lima comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 outings, those coming over Ben Rothwell (39-14-0), Maurice Greene (10-7-0), and Ben Sosoli (7-3-0). With his first 6 UFC fights all ending in the first round and only 3 decisions in 13 UFC fights, De Lima is obviously at his most dangerous early on. De Lima throws every shot with fight-ending intentions, usually throwing a half dozen hooks in combination. He will mix in kicks when he’s at range, but he’s typically found banging it out in the pocket. Somehow also training at American Top Team, De Lima averages over 1 takedown landed per fight and has smothering top control if he can get his opponent down. He’s far more likely to go for the ground and pound finish than a submission, landing with just as much power as he does on the feet. It seems his wins go one of two ways; devastating first-round KO, or 3 rounds of top control. De Lima is the favorite at -240 with Arlovski the +200 underdog. I’m honestly a little surprised with the odds here, Arlovski has been rolling lately whereas De Lima has pretty much always traded wins and losses. I’m sure the reality here is people think Arlovski’s chin is gone and De Lima will have no trouble, but this is pretty far from the truth. Arlovski is much faster than De Lima and has much better cardio, so if he can stay on his feet and keep moving he should be able to piece De Lima up. I’m taking Arlovski moneyline and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Arlovski +200, Under 2.5 rounds

Phil Hawes vs. Roman Dolidze

Middleweight Bout

Phil Hawes: 12-3-0, 8 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Roman Dolidze: 10-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Two powerful, well-rounded fighters are set to face off in this one. Hawes has won 4 of his last 5 fights and holds wins over Kyle Daukaus (11-3-0), Nassourdine Imavov (12-3-0), and Jacob Malkoun (7-2-0). With a background in collegiate wrestling, Hawes’ easiest path to victory is grappling, averaging over 2 takedowns landed per fight. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Hawes is very powerful, often landing slam takedowns, and is very hard to shake off when he’s in top position. When he does get the fight to the mat, Hawes seemingly never stops punching, definitely preferring a ground and pound finish to a submission. On the feet, Hawes stays patient and fights behind his jab, and what he lacks in volume he makes up for in accuracy and power. Hawes has shown marked improvement in his striking, now throwing head kicks and beautiful short elbows on the inside. He has shown an increased willingness to strike lately but has shown a tendency to panic wrestle if he gets caught with a big shot. Dolidze similarly has won 4 of his last 5 outings and has wins over Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0), Khadis Ibragimov (8-4-0), and John Allan (13-7-0). Dolidze has a background in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Sambo and is an accomplished grappler outside of MMA. Averaging over 2 takedowns landed a fight, Dolidze is most at home on the mat where he also averages over 1 submission attempt per fight. Dolidze is great in the clinch and very hard to shake off, and has shown an ability to throw some damaging knees to the head when clinched against the fence. Training at Xtreme Couture, Dolidze won’t punch a ton while grappling, mostly focusing on improving his position and controlling his opponent. Dolidze has good power in his hands and seems to prefer to counter-strike when on the feet, not moving his feet a ton but always moving his head. He gets his best work done in the clinch and when he breaks off from the clinch, often throwing power shots in close. Hawes is a small favorite in this bout at -170, making Dolidze a +145 underdog. While their records and UFC tenures are similar, the quality of their opponents are not. Hawes has faced and beaten much better competition than Dolidze has, whose UFC wins hold a combined UFC record of 4-13-2. Hawes isn’t going to be controlled against the fence, which seems to be Dolidze’s bread and butter, so this isn’t a tough decision. I’m taking Hawes by KO as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Hawes -170, Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

#13 Dustin Jacoby vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Light Heavyweight Bout

Dustin Jacoby: 18-5-1, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Khalil Rountree Jr.: 11-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Two high-level strikers are set to collide in this bout. Jacoby has won 4 of his last 5 fights with one draw and has wins over Da-Un Jung (15-3-1), Michael Oleksiejczuk (17-5-0), and Darren Stewart (12-9-0). Jacoby is a former professional kickboxer holding a record of 18-8-0, spending time in the premier kickboxing promotion Glory. His experience is visible in his fighting style, as he possesses excellent footwork and movement, as well as a great variety of attacks. He’s effective both at range and in the pocket but unsurprisingly prefers to stay at range where he can use his arsenal of kicks and punch combinations. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, his hands seemingly never stop moving as he’s always feinting or throwing something. He has solid output for a light heavyweight but also does a great job of managing his energy, not overexerting himself, and keeping the same pace for all 15 minutes. Jacoby is willing to grapple and will occasionally shoot for a takedown, but largely prefers to keep it on the feet where he’s most dangerous. Rountree has found victory in 3 of his last 5 bouts, with those wins coming over Karl Roberson (9-6-0), Eryk Anders (14-7-0), and Modestas Bukauskas (11-5-0). He scored the only oblique kick finish in UFC history when he absolutely obliterated Bukauskas’ knee in his second most recent fight. Rountree has a background in Muay Thai, but his best weapons are probably his hands. He’ll regularly explode forward swinging massive looping hooks throwing every shot with fight-ending intentions. Training at Syndicate MMA, Rountree is capable of fighting a slower, more technical fight despite his tendency to get wild, but can gas himself out sometimes in his search for a finish. He’s at his best early on in a fight and when he can control the center of the octagon, using his forward pressure and crazy power to damage his opponents. Rountree has never landed a takedown in the UFC and very rarely initiates grappling exchanges. Jacoby is the favorite in this bout at -175 making Rountree a +150 underdog. This is a very tough fight to predict, both have similar styles and solid experience. Considering this is going to be a kickboxing match inside a cage, I think Jacoby’s legitimate kickboxing experience and gas tank will win this one for him. I’ll take Jacoby moneyline, but the rounds are just as hard to pick. This could end in the first 15 seconds or could be 15 minutes of technical striking. I’ll roll the dice and take under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Jacoby -175, Under 2.5 rounds

Josh Fremd vs. Tresean Gore

Middleweight Bout

Josh Fremd: 9-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Tresean Gore: 4-2-0, 2 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

A matchup of two UFC newcomers, I have no idea what to expect in this fight. Fremd has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his one UFC fight being a loss to Anthony Hernandez (10-2-0). Fremd is a patient boxer who fights behind his jab and picks his shots. He has a solid kicking game but tends to throw a lot of naked kicks, not usually throwing them in combinations. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, Fremd’s best weapon is his left hand, often damaging his opponent with jabs and lead hooks. While he tends to fight at a relatively slow pace, he does pick up his volume and urgency as the fight goes on, making him more dangerous the longer a fight goes for. Fremd is willing to grapple and has solid offensive wrestling, able to land takedowns in open space as well as along the fence. Like on the feet he isn’t too aggressive from top position, focusing on advancing his position as opposed to doing a ton of damage. Fremd has the power in his hands to finish a fight, but his tendency to throw single shots often works against him. Gore has found victory in 3 of his last 5 outings, with his most recent victory coming over Gilbert Urbina (6-3-0) in the semifinals of the Ultimate Fighter 29. Gore is incredibly powerful and explosive, with serious power in both his punches and his kicks. He throws everything with maximum power and has the ability to end a fight with one shot. Gore is constantly moving forward, throwing kicks at lightning speed and holding the center of the cage. Training at American Top Team, Gore will initiate grappling exchanges and has excellent takedown defense, but seems most comfortable on the feet. Gore has a tendency to be a bit too patient on the feet, always looking for that perfect shot to end the fight with. Like his opponent, he seems to get more comfortable and increase his pace as the fight goes on, and is dangerous at any time. Gore does seem to favor his kicks over his punches a bit, often throwing numerous kicks before opening up with his hands. Fremd is a slight favorite in this fight at -160, with Gore returning as a +135 underdog. This is a brutal fight to predict: both tend to come out flat and be a bit too patient on the feet, both have the ability to wrestle, and both lack experience. Honestly, I think the biggest thing that sets them apart is Gore’s power, if he actually chooses to let his hands go he can do some serious damage. Pretty much for this reason alone, I’m going to take Gore moneyline, but the rounds are just as tough to predict. These guys could go out there and exchange jabs for 15 minutes, or someone could be asleep in 15 seconds. I think I’ve picked every fight to go under so far, so I’ll take the over here.

Picks: Gore +135, Over 2.5 rounds

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Jared Vanderaa

Heavyweight Bout

Waldo Cortes-Acosta: 7-0-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Jared Vanderaa: 12-9-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

A classic big boy brawl, this should be a fun heavyweight fight. Acosta is making his UFC debut in this bout and is undefeated, with his last bout being an LFA heavyweight title victory over Thomas Petersen (6-1-0). Acosta is a powerful striker, utilizing a boxing style, and has quick hands for a heavyweight. His best weapon is definitely his right hand, regularly throwing wide hooks and devastating overhands. Although he favors his right, Acosta has power in both hands and is constantly seeking a finish. Training at UKF Gym, Acosta seems to be most at home in a brawl, working inside the pocket and throwing knees and elbows in the clinch. When he lets his hands go he’s shown he can throw long, technical combinations but will often throw single shots. While he won’t usually initiate grappling exchanges, he has shown a solid ability to get back to his feet. When Acosta is on top he will often throw plenty of elbows and does a great job of not putting himself in danger in order to land ground and pound. Vanderaa has won just 1 of his previous 5 bouts, with that victory coming over Justin Tafa (5-3-0). Like his opponent Vanderaa is a classic brawler, regularly lowering his head and moving forward to throw big hooks. Vanderaa is not afraid to step into the pocket and let his hands go, regularly fighting in a phone booth. Training at Team Quest-Portland, he has a solid chin and is more than willing to eat a shot in order to land one. Vanderaa mixes up his strikes well and possesses some powerful kicks, mostly throwing to the body but occasionally throwing head kicks when at range. Vanderaa is great at striking in the clinch, often landing body kicks and knees when entering and landing hooks and elbows when exiting. He does seem to have solid cardio for a heavyweight, retaining his speed and power across all 15 minutes. He is willing to grapple and has good clinch control abilities, and trains at a wrestler-heavy camp so I’m sure he has solid grappling skills. Acosta is the favorite at -210 with Vanderaa the underdog at +175. It’s hard to pick Vanderaa here with the skid he’s been on lately, but I think this could turn out to be a pretty close brawl. Still, though, Acosta should take it, I think he has a speed and power advantage and in this type of matchup, that’s all you really need. I’ll go Acosta by KO and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Tim Means vs. Max Griffin

Welterweight Bout

Tim Means: 32-13-1, 19 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Max Griffin: 18-9-0, 9 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

A fight between two exciting veterans, I’d be surprised if the judges are involved in this one. Means has won 3 of his last 5 outings and has wins over Mike Perry (14-8-0), Thiago Alves (28-15-0), and Dhiego Lima (17-9-0). Entering his 10th year in the UFC, Means is about as gritty as they come and is always down for a good scrap. Means has excellent dirty boxing in the clinch as well as devastating knees and elbows. Despite his tendency to brawl he does stay technical and very rarely overextends or overexerts himself, not often missing punches. Means has crisp boxing and underrated power and does an excellent job of attacking both the head and body equally. Training at Fit NHB, Means has a pretty upright stance on the feet but moves his head very well, and can definitely eat a shot. He averages about one takedown landed per fight so he is willing to grapple, and does a great job of controlling his opponent when he’s on top. While he doesn’t put out crazy volume there are rarely lulls in his fights, and he’s averaging about 65 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights. Griffin has also found victory in 3 of his last 5 outings, with his last three wins coming over Carlos Condit (32-14-0), Song Kenan (16-6-0), and Ramiz Brahimaj (10-4-0). Griffin is constantly moving on the feet, often staying at range and working his low kicks. His best weapon by far is his right hand, which he uses to throw damaging straights and overhands. Training at MMAGold, Griffin is at his best when he’s throwing first and coming forward, controlling the pace of the fight. He can get pulled into brawls a bit to his detriment, as he’s really at his most dangerous at range where he can throw long right hands. Griffin has power in both hands and the ability to end a fight with a single shot and pushes a solid pace on the feet. Like his opponent he doesn’t put out crazy volume but isn’t a slow fighter either, averaging about 55 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights. He averages over a takedown landed per fight so he is willing to grapple and has great takedown defense as well, sitting at 75% for his UFC career. Griffin is the favorite in this fight at -190, with Means returning as the underdog at +160. I think this is going to be a very competitive fight, both have plenty of experience and are very well-rounded. I think Griffin’s power and speed advantage will be the difference here, so I’ll take Griffin moneyline, but this one could come down to the wire. Both guys are very tough and hard to KO, and I’d be shocked to see a submission in this one, so I’ll take over 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Griffin -190, over 2.5 rounds

#5 Calvin Kattar vs. #6 Arnold Allen

Featherweight Bout

Calvin Kattar: 23-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Arnold Allen: 18-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

This is an incredibly important fight for the division and sees two dangerous men collide in the octagon. Kattar has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with those wins coming over #8 ranked featherweight Giga Chikadze (14-3-0), #12 ranked featherweight Dan Ige (15-6-0), and Jeremy Stephens (29-20-0). Kattar is a very technical, patient boxer who will fight behind his jab before letting go brutal combinations with his hands. Kattar pushes an insane pace, averaging nearly 113 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights, and can easily push this pace over 5 rounds. Training with the New England Cartel, Kattar does a great job of lulling his opponent in by staying patient and not putting out a ton of offense before letting go big combinations and darting back out to range. While he won’t typically initiate grappling exchanges he has shown some solid wrestling abilities and has outstanding takedown defense, holding a defense percentage of 91%. Kattar is one of the toughest guys to finish in the sport, proven by the 445 significant strikes he absorbed in a UD loss to #1 ranked featherweight Max Holloway (23-7-0). Allen is undefeated in the UFC, with his last three wins coming over #12 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker (21-12-0), #11 ranked featherweight Sodiq Yusuff (13-2-0), and Nik Lentz (30-12-2). Allen is an excellent technical striker, possessing serious speed and power in his hands as well as a solid arsenal of kicks. Allen has some of the best striking defense in the UFC, only absorbing about 2 significant strikes per minute on average, with a significant strike defense percentage of 66%. Allen has beautiful combinations and rarely throws single shots, and will often mix in head and body kicks at the end of his combinations. He throws everything with a ton of power but stays accurate, allowing him to push his pace across an entire fight. Training at BKK Fighters, he averages over 1 takedown landed per fight and seems equally comfortable on the ground as he is on the feet. Allen is seemingly never in the same place, constantly moving and attacking from different angles, which is part of why he’s so hard to hit. Allen is a slight favorite here at -120, making Kattar a +100 underdog. I think this is a tough matchup for both guys, with Kattar’s toughness and forward pressure countering Allen’s speed and movement well. I think ultimately Allen’s well-roundedness will be the difference maker as if he’s able to get Kattar down it should be a pretty easy path to victory for him from there. I’ll take Allen moneyline as well as over 4.5, it’s practically impossible to finish Calvin Kattar.

Picks: Allen -120, Over 4.5 rounds

UFC 280

Prelims

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Malcolm Gordon

Flyweight Bout

Muhammad Mokaev: 8-0-0, 2 KO/TKO 3 Sub.

Malcolm Gordon: 14-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

A matchup of two excellent grapplers, this is a tough one to predict. Mokaev is undefeated, with his UFC victories coming over Cody Durden (13-4-1) and Charles Johnson (11-3-0). Mokaev made a big splash in his debut with a 1st round submission, exhibiting both knockout power and excellent grappling. While he’s a well rounded fighter, Mokaev definitely prefers to take the fight to the mat and is relentless in his pursuit of takedowns. Mokaev has great chain grappling, often stringing together takedowns especially when in the clinch. When he does get the fight to the floor, he’s more likely to pursue submissions than a ground and pound finish, shown in his last fight where he had 11 minutes of control time but only landed 12 significant strikes. Training at KHK MMA Team, “The Punisher” has excellent cardio and can easily grapple for 15 minutes, but is yet to be truly tested on the feet. He has shown some solid hands and good boxing, but it’s a small sample size. Gordon has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his UFC wins coming over Franciso Figueiredo (13-5-1) and Denys Bondar (16-4-0). Like his opponent Gordon is well rounded but prefers grappling, not often spending much time on the feet before shooting in for a takedown. 11 of his 19 career fights have ended in the first round, so Gordon is clearly at his most dangerous early, often coming out guns blazing. Gordon seems comfortable on his back as well as on top, and will pursue submissions from both positions. Training at Adrenaline Training Center, Gordon has a great sense of urgency, always looking for the finish and taking advantage of openings to land ground and pound. Also similar to his opponent, he hasn’t spent much time on his feet in the UFC, but tends to throw power shots to set up his takedowns. With 4 knockout losses on his record, his easiest path to victory by far is to get the fight to the ground. Mokaev is the biggest favorite on the entire card at -1000, with Gordon the +650 underdog. Honestly, I don’t think the skill gap is as massive as it’s being made out; both have BJJ black belts, neither have great striking, both never give up on takedowns. I think it’s Gordon’s two first round losses in the UFC that have lead to these odds being so juiced. This fight could end in the first minute, or be 15 minutes of clinching along the fence, so predicting the rounds is a real challenge. Both have a good amount of first round finishes so the logical choice here is under 2.5 rounds. I’d be an idiot to pick against the biggest favorite on the card, so I won’t, but do not be surprised if Gordon pulls off a submission and kills this hype train.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Mokaev by Finish

#8 Volkan Oezdemir vs. #10 Nikita Krylov

Light Heavyweight Bout

Volkan Oezdemir: 18-6-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Nikita Krylov: 28-9-0, 11 KO/TKO, 15 Sub.

This is a very exciting matchup of two fighters with vastly different styles. Oezdemir has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and holds victories over #9 ranked Light Heavyweight Paul Craig (16-5-1), #4 ranked Light Heavyweight Aleksander Rakic (14-3-0), and Ovince Saint Preux (26-16-0). Oezdemir has a background in kickboxing and holds a 5-0 record professionally prior to entering MMA, and it shows in his style. While he primarily uses his hands, tending to get into the pocket to land big shots, he has powerful kicks, and particularly devastating leg kicks. Despite his phonebox-fighting style, Oezdemir stays relatively composed, usually returning to the center of the octagon and resetting after attacking. Training at Allstars Training Center, Oezdemir has a solid chin and is willing to eat a shot to land one, but possesses good head movement as well. Oezdemir will occasionally initiate grappling exchanges, primarily preferring to remain on the feet, and has a takedown defense percentage of 86% in his UFC career. Krylov comes into this fight win wins in 2 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over #11 ranked Light Heavyweight Johnny Walker(19-7-0), Alexander Gustafsson (18-8-0), and Ed Herman (27-15-0). Averaging both over 1 takedown landed and 1 submission attempted per fight, Krylov definitely prefers to grapple. If his game plan is to grapple, he wastes no time, often shooting in for a takedown immediately. Training with YK Promotion, he uses smothering top control and is always pursuing a finish, staying active when on top and going for both submissions and ground and pound. When on his back, he’s more likely to try to escape or reverse position than attempt submissions, but has the ability to do so. On the feet, “The Miner” has a black belt in Kyokushin karate, so he has a kicking game, but will mostly use the big power he has in his hands to hurt his opponent. He’ll often use power shots to set up his takedowns, but will gladly engage in a stand up brawl if the opportunity presents itself. Krylov is a slight favorite here at -170, making Oezdemir a +145 underdog. This will be a classic case of “who does their specialty better.” If it stays standing, Oezdemir has an advantage, if it goes to the mat, Krylov has the advantage. I think Oezdemir has the takedown defense to keep this fight on the feet, which should be enough to secure him a victory. I’m taking both under 2.5 rounds and Oezdemir moneyline.

Picks: Oezdemir +145, Under 2.5 rounds

#5 Belal Muhammad vs. #8 Sean Brady

Welterweight Bout

Belal Muhammad: 21-3-0, 4 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Sean Brady: 15-0-0, 3 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Belal Muhammad has found victory in 4 of his last 5 fights with one draw, and has impressive wins over Demian Maia (28-11-0), #7 ranked welterweight Stephen Thompson (16-6-1), and #9 ranked welterweight Vicente Luque (21-9-1). Primarily a wrestler, Muhammad prefers to take the fight to the mat, using his strong double leg takedowns to drag his opponents to the floor and land ground and pound. When the fight is on the feet, Muhammad uses a heavy handed boxing style, throwing lots of technical combinations, often using his punching ability to get in close for a takedown. There’s only one fight in his UFC tenure that he won without landing a takedown, and he averages over 2 takedowns landed per fight, so his game plan is pretty clear. Training at Roufusport, he averaged about 60 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights, and is more likely to use ground and pound than pursue a submission. Brady is undefeated, with his best wins coming over #12 ranked welterweight Michael Chiesa (18-6-0), Jake Matthews (18-5-0), and Court McGee (22-11-0). Brady is an excellent grappler averaging over 3 takedowns landed per fight in his UFC career, and has controlled every opponent he’s faced. Training at Renzo Gracie Philly, Brady advances incredibly quickly on the ground and remains patient on top, using smothering top control to find submission openings. All of his career submissions have come via some kind of choke, so the fight is basically over if he can get a hold of his opponent’s neck. On the feet Brady utilizes a boxing style, not moving his feet much but throwing constant feints with his hands. While he definitely prefers to take the fight to the mat, he won’t get desperate for takedowns and is willing to engage on the feet. Brady is the slight favorite in this one at -140, with Muhammad the underdog at +120. If you know me, you know I always have and always will despise Belal Muhammad, so I’m pretty much incapable of picking him to win. Beyond that though, I believe Brady is a much more dangerous grappler and will not let Muhammad do his usual lay-and-pray. I’m taking Brady by submission and under 2.5 rounds. Fuck Belal Muhammad.

Picks: Brady by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

#1 Katlyn Chookagian vs. #6 Manon Fiorot

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Katlyn Chookagian: 18-4-0, 2 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Manon Fiorot: 9-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

One of the most exciting matchups in this weight class in awhile, this should be a good one. Chookagian has 4 wins in her last 5 fights, and has fought a who’s who of women’s flyweight, with wins over Lauren Murphy (15-5-0), Alexis Davis (20-11-0) and Viviane Araujo (10-3-0). Training at Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, Chookagian is known for her boxing style on the feet, using crisp combos and excellent counter-punching to do damage to her opponents. Chookagian also has great kicks, and is able to use a wide variety of attacks and mix kicks in with punch combinations. While definitely a striker, Chookagian has the ability to mix it up on the ground, often resorting to ground and pound instead of submissions. She’s one of the most experienced fighters in the entire division, being tied for the most fights in the women’s flyweight division and has the second most wins of all time in that division. Her last two losses came against the very best of the division, being #4 ranked Jessica Andrade (22-9-0) and current women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0). Fiorot has won all of her last 5 bouts, with her best wins coming over #8 ranked women’s flyweight Jennifer Maia (19-9-1), Mayra Bueno Silva (9-2-1), and Tabatha Ricci (7-1-0). Fiorot is a credentialed striker, holding a black belt in karate and multiple national championships in kickboxing and Muay Thai. She’s been a force to be reckoned with on the feet in her UFC tenure, averaging about 78 significant strikes landed per fight, averaging over 6 significant strikes landed per minute. Training at Boxing Squad, she has excellent footwork and movement, as well as an arsenal of kicks that she mixes up constantly. Her best weapons are her lead leg attacks and her left hand, landing shots at range and always moving. Despite her background, “The Beast” has landed at least 1 takedown in all of her UFC fights, and has shown solid wrestling and top control. Although she has no submissions on her record, Fiorot has a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has submission ability, but seems more content pursuing ground and pound when on top. Fiorot is the favorite in this bout at -210, with Chookagian the underdog at +175. I understand why Fiorot is getting the nod here, but to overlook Chookagian is pretty foolish. She’s been at the top of the division for awhile and has only lost to the best, this is above and beyond the biggest test of Fiorot’s short MMA career. I think this will definitely be a competitive fight, but I think Chookagian has the skill and experience to steal this one. I’ll take Chookagian moneyline and over 2.5 rounds.

*Chookagian missed weight by 2 pounds

Picks: Chookagian +175, Over 2.5 rounds

#6 Beneil Dariush vs. #9 Mateusz Gamrot

Lightweight Bout

Beneil Dariush: 21-4-1, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Mateusz Gamrot: 21-1-0, 7 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

This is an important matchup in the UFC’s best division, and I’ve been looking forward to this one. Dariush has won all of his last 5 bouts, coming into this fight on a 7 fight win streak with victories over Tony Ferguson (26-8-0), Diego Ferreira (17-5-0), and Scott Holtzman (14-5-0). Dariush is one of the most well rounded fighters in the UFC, holding black belts in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai. Dariush is more than willing to brawl on the feet, regularly getting into slugfests and hanging in the pocket to land big shots. Training at Kings MMA, Dariush will throw kicks when at range, and also has some solid knees in the clinch. Averaging about 2 takedowns landed per fight and one submission attempted per fight, his easiest route to victory is likely grappling, possessing excellent top control and wrestling. Dariush will shoot for takedowns in the open, but stays patient on top, never putting himself in compromising positions. He also has excellent takedown defense, defending 81% of takedowns attempted on him during his 7 year UFC tenure. Gamrot has won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his best victories coming over Jeremy Stephens (29-20-0), Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0), and Diego Ferreira (17-5-0). Like his opponent, he is an incredibly well rounded fighter, and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. When he’s striking, he’s constantly moving and staying at range, remaining patient and picking his shots. What he lacks in volume he makes up for in power, throwing every shot with knockout intentions. Training at American Top Team, Gamrot is averaging a ludicrous 5 takedowns landed per fight, and has defended 90% of takedowns attempted on him. He is an excellent wrestler, refusing to give up on takedowns and never staying still on the ground, whether on top or bottom. A former KSW champion “Gamer” has excellent cardio, seemingly always moving whether he’s on the ground or on his feet. Gamrot is the favorite at -190, with Dariush the +160 underdog. I will as usual admit my bias, I love Dariush (how could you not after his fight with Drakkar Klose). Still, I think he is one of the most continually overlooked fighters at 155, and is being overlooked again. I think his constant pressure on the feet could prove a challenge for Gamrot, who mostly pushes the pace when he’s on the mat. If Dariush’s takedown defense can hold up, I really think he should win this one. I’ll take Dariush moneyline and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Dariush +160, Under 2.5 rounds

#1 Petr Yan vs. #11 Sean O’Malley

Bantamweight Bout

Petr Yan: 16-3-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Sean O’Malley: 15-1-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Arguably one of the most insane matchups we’ve ever been so blessed to receive, I cannot believe this fight is finally happening. Yan comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 bouts, and holds wins over #4 ranked bantamweight Cory Sandhagen (15-4-0), former featherweight champion Jose Aldo (31-8-0), and UFC Hall of Famer Urijah Faber (35-11-0). Yan is one of the most dangerous fighters this division has seen in years, with both destructive striking and dominant grappling. On the feet, Yan has excellent hands and devastating kicks, using both in tandem to damage his opponent. Training at Tiger Muay Thai, Yan never lets up his pace, always pursuing a finish and throwing with maximum power and speed. He has excellent cardio and can push a crazy pace for 25 minutes, whether he’s grappling or striking. On the ground, Yan has great takedowns and top control, often landing brutal ground and pound. This is his first fight in 2 years that isn’t for a title, with all of his UFC losses coming in title fights against the current champion Aljamain Sterling (21-3-0). O’Malley has won 4 of his last 5 outings, with his best wins coming over Raulian Paiva (21-5-0), Thomas Almeida (22-5-0), and Eddie Wineland (24-16-1). O’Malley is known for his wild striking style, throwing out a variety of spinning and flying kicks seemingly at will. Averaging nearly 8 significant strikes landed per minute, O’Malley is always pursuing the finish holding only two decision victories in the UFC, with the rest all coming via KO. O’Malley rarely engages in grappling exchanges, much preferring to stay at range and pick at his opponent with long punches and kicks. Beyond his arsenal of flashy attacks, his most dangerous weapon are his straight punches, often putting them at the end of combinations and regularly resulting in knockdowns or knockouts (see O’Malley vs Wineland). Despite his massive popularity, O’Malley is yet to truly be tested in the octagon, so this is a huge jump in competition for him. Yan is the favorite in this one at -270, making O’Malley the +220 underdog. Honestly, Yan should be an even bigger favorite. If he chooses to wrestle pretty much at all this fight is as good as over, and I think he’s a stronger and better striker than O’Malley. I’m going to take Yan by KO as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Yan by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Aljamain Sterling (C) vs. #2 TJ Dillashaw

Bantamweight Title Bout

Aljamain Sterling: 21-3-0, 2 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

TJ Dillashaw: 18-4-0, 8 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

A title fight between two controversial figures, this should be quite the matchup. Sterling comes into this fight with a 7 fight winning streak, with wins over #1 ranked bantamweight Petr Yan twice (16-3-0), #4 ranked bantamweight Cory Sandhagen (15-4-0), and #8 ranked bantamweight Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0). Sterling is best known for his excellent grappling, possessing a dangerous submission game as well as solid wrestling. Sterling has smothering top control, often using ground and pound to set up his submission attempts. To back up his grappling, Sterling has some solid kickboxing on the feet, with great speed in both his hands and his kicks. Averaging about 87 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights, Sterling has the cardio to push a furious pace for all 25 minutes, whether on the feet or on the ground. Training at Serra-Longo Fight Team, Sterling averages nearly two takedowns landed per fight along with about 1 submission attempt per fight, so his easiest path to victory is pretty clear. Dillashaw has one 4 of his last 5 fights, and holds victories over former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt twice (12-5-0), former bantamweight champion Renan Barao twice (34-9-0), and Raphael Assuncao (28-9-0). Training at Treigning Lab, Dillashaw is someone always in the conversation for the 135 pound GOAT, and for good reason. Arguably one of the best strikers the division has ever seen, Dillashaw has lightning fast hands and great power for the weight class. Dillashaw is a finisher, especially in title fights, with all of his title victories coming via KO. He also has great wrestling, averaging nearly 2 takedowns landed per fight, and is dangerous anywhere the fight goes. The CEO of EPO has 6 fights on his UFC record in which he landed more than 100 significant strikes, so he can match his power with volume. He also has defended 86% of takedowns attempted on him in his UFC career, so if he’s taking over on the feet it’s quite the challenge to take him down. Sterling is the favorite here at -170, with Dillashaw the +145 underdog. My bias continues on this card: I hate Dillashaw, but I don’t think this affects my pick too much. In my opinion, Dillashaw lost that fight against Sandhagen, so he shouldn’t even be here. I think Sterling’s grappling will be too much for Dillashaw, but if it stays on the feet, Aljo could be in trouble. Either way, I’m taking Sterling moneyline and over 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Sterling -170, Over 4.5 rounds

#1 Charles Oliveira vs. #4 Islam Makhachev

Lightweight Title Bout

Charles Oliveira: 33-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 21 Sub.

Islam Makhachev: 22-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.

Probably the best matchup in years, I am absolutely ecstatic for this fight. Oliveira enters this bout on an 11 fight win streak, with title victories against #5 ranked lightweight Michael Chandler (23-7-0), #2 ranked lightweight Dustin Poirier (28-7-0), and #3 ranked lightweight Justin Gaethje ((23-4-0) say what you want, this was a title defense). Oliveira could be the most well rounded fighter of all time, with some of the most deadly BJJ in the UFC and absolute bricks for hands. It truly doesn’t matter where the fights ends up, his opponent is never safe, whether he’s on top, bottom, or standing up. While he established himself as a submission artist, Oliveira has really rounded out his game, adding some excellent Muay Thai to his skillset. Averaging over 2 takedowns landed per fight and nearly 3 submission attempts per fight, it’s basically a given to see grappling in an Oliveira fight. Training at Chute Boxe, he has proven his ability to stay calm in deep waters, regularly getting dropped in his fights only to come back and find a way to win. Makhachev comes into this fight on a 10 fight win streak, with his best wins coming over #14 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker (21-12-0), #10 ranked lightweight Arman Tsarukyan (18-3-0), and Thiago Moises (16-6-0). Makhachev is famously the protege of Khabib Nurmagomedov, so he unsurprisingly fights nearly identical to his mentor. With absolutely dominant wrestling and an extensive sambo background, Makhachev is an animal on the ground, always pursuing the finish. Averaging just over 3 takedowns landed per fight, Makhachev rarely wastes much time on the feet, often shooting immediately. Makhachev has excellent top control, landing vicious ground and pound until his opponent is out or until he can find a submission. While he doesn’t always have crazy output in terms of punches, he often doesn’t need to, finding the finish in the first round in his last two fights. Somehow, Makhachev is the favorite at -190, with Oliveira a +160 underdog. If you’ve read any of my older articles, you’d know I’ve learned my lesson when it comes to counting out Charlie Olives. Honestly, at this point he might be the GOAT of plus money. I don’t think I need to explain myself: I’m taking Oliveira by finish, and under 4.5 rounds. The champion has a name, and it’s Charles Oliveira.

Picks: Oliveira by Finish, Under 4.5 rounds

UFC 279

Prelims

Denis Tiuliulin vs. Jamie Pickett

Middleweight Bout

Denis Tiuliulin: 10-6-0, 8 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Jamie Pickett: 13-7-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A matchup of two heavy handed strikers, I’d be surprised if this went to a decision. Tiuliulin comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 bouts, with this being his second UFC fight after a short notice debut loss to Aliaskhab Khizriev (14-0-0). Tiuliulin is a fast starter, with only a single decision win on his record and the majority of his finishes coming in the first round. He’s at his best when he’s controlling the center of the cage, pressuring forward and throwing big hooks in the pocket. Training at Evolve MMA, Tiuliulin does a great job of turning fights into scraps, willing to take shots in order to stand and bang at close range. While he mostly uses his hands, he will throw kicks and flying knees at range, and has excellent killer instinct, always pouncing on his opponent when given an opportunity to end the fight. Tiuliulin rarely initiates grappling exchanges, and with 3 of his 6 losses coming via submission, he’s clearly more comfortable on the feet. Pickett has also won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his UFC victories coming over Joseph Holmes (8-2-0) and Laureano Staropoli (10-5-0). Pickett does tend to come out a little slow, often taking some time to find his range and timing before really engaging. Pickett mostly throws straights, usually only throwing hooks when he’s in the pocket, and often blitzes forward with big combinations. Although he starts slow, he has solid cardio, often picking up the pace in the later stages of the fight when his opponent begins to fade. Pickett is willing to grapple but mostly seems to do so when he’s losing the striking battle, and is more than willing to clinch against the cage for long stretches of time. Training at Port City Sports Performance, Pickett is a very lengthy striker who’s at his best when he’s controlling the center of the octagon and using his reach. “The Night Wolf” does have a solid arsenal of kicks particularly when at range, but favors his hands more, often throwing out naked kicks with no setup. Pickett is a slight favorite at -135, with Tiuliulin the underdog at +115. I think Pickett is getting the nod on experience alone, he’s a slow starter facing someone who’s by far at their best in the first round, making this a pretty tough matchup for him. I’ll definitely take under 2.5 rounds, but I also like Tiuliulin in this one. Pickett may have a grappling advantage, but I don’t think Tiuliulin will allow him enough time to use those skills.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Tiuliulin +115 

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Julian Erosa

Catchweight Bout

Hakeem Dawodu: 13-2-1, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Julian Erosa: 27-10-0, 11 KO/TKO, 12 Sub.

A matchup of two very exciting featherweights, I’m looking forward to this one. A fighter I’ve covered before (UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland), Dawodu has won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins coming over Michael Trizano (10-3-0), Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1), and Julio Arce (18-5-1). Dawodu is an excellent counter-striker, utilizing a sharp kickboxing style to damage his opponents. Dawodu does a great job of mixing up his strikes, evenly attacking the head, legs, and body with a variety of punches and kicks. Training at Champion’s Creed MMA, he possesses one of the more impressive kicking arsenals I’ve seen, particularly with his low kicks, attacking from different angles to deal serious damage to the legs and body. Dawodu will occasionally throw some flashy attacks, but has great fundamentals and keeps his striking technical throughout the entire fight. “Mean” has struggled on the ground in the past, getting taken down 9 times by Movsar Evloev (16-0-0), and has no interest in taking the fight to the mat, only clinching when he’s hurt. Another fighter I covered on the same card as Dawodu, Erosa has similarly won 4 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over Sean Woodson (9-1-1), Charles Jourdain (13-6-1), and Steven Peterson (19-10-0). Erosa has an awkward style on the feet, staying very upright with his hands down, throwing lots of looping hooks from strange angles. Erosa is seemingly always moving forward, whether that’s to initiate a grappling exchange or to land strikes, and has the cardio to do so over 3 rounds. “Juicy J” is very willing to get into brawls on the feet, gladly hanging in the pocket and exchanging combinations. Training at Xtreme Couture, Erosa averages about 2 takedowns landed per fight, and is a slick submission artist, with two UFC victories via D’arce choke, one of which was standing. Although Erosa has some KO losses on his record, the majority of those came in round 1, so if his opponent can’t take him out early he only gets more dangerous as the fight goes on. Dawodu is a decent favorite in this fight at -220, making Erosa a +185 underdog. This is truly going to be a matchup of who’s better at their own game; if Erosa can get the fight to the mat, Dawodu will have no response, but Dawodu is definitely a more technical striker than Erosa. I honestly can’t pick a winner in this one so I’ll just go with my bias, I love watching Erosa fight so I’ll take him to win this one by submission. Picking the rounds is just as challenging, but I’ll cautiously take under 2.5 rounds.

Hakeem Dawodu missed weight for this bout by 4 pounds, weighing in at 150 pounds.

Picks: Erosa by Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

Johnny Walker vs. Ion Cutelaba

Light Heavyweight Bout

Johnny Walker: 18-7-0, 15 KO/TKO 2 Sub.

Ion Cutelaba: 16-7-1, 12 KO/TKO 2 Sub.

A fight between two men in need of a win, I don’t expect the judges to be involved in this one. Walker has won just one of his last 5 fights, and has wins over Ryan Spann (20-7-0), Misha Cirkunov (15-8-0), Khalil Rountree Jr. (11-5-0). When Walker first entered the promotion, he broke off a string of three straight first rounds knockouts, showing he’s clearly at his most dangerous early on. He has considerably slowed down his style since, seeming to prefer staying at range, mostly using his kicks to land damage. Walker is constantly moving and using feints, and is at his best when he’s moving forward and leading the fight, often struggling when put on the backfoot. Despite originally being known for his recklessness, Walker doesn’t seem to have any interest in getting into brawls, and is much better off in a technical kickboxing match than a wild scrap. Training at SBG Ireland, Walker is huge even for light heavyweight, and uses his size and reach to keep out of his opponents range and land strikes. Cutelaba has found victory in 1 of his last 5 fights, along with a draw, and has wins over Devin Clark (13-7-0), and Khalil Rountree (11-5-0). Famous for his antics at weigh-ins, Cutelaba has earned a reputation as a wild fighter, but has really focused on his wrestling in recent fights. He’s landed 20 takedowns in just his last 3 fights, and does a great job of timing his shots in open space. Cutelaba rarely pursues submissions, usually preferring to smash his opponent with devastating ground and pound (his two submission wins are both by omoplata somehow). On the feet, “The Hulk” has one-punch knockout power in his hands and is always pursuing a finish, never looking to just touch up his opponent. Training at CSA Moldova, Cutelaba averages about 5 strikes landed per minute, and never stops pressuring his opponent. Of his twelve knockouts, eleven of them came in the first round, showing Cutelaba is obviously at his most dangerous early on. Cutelaba is the favorite at -220 with Walker the underdog at +180. It’s hard to go against the odds here, Walker really hasn’t looked great lately and hasn’t done well in high pace brawls, which is exactly what Cutelaba does. I’ll take Cutelaba moneyline as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Cutelaba -220, Under 2.5 rounds

#4 (BW) Irene Aldana vs. #10 (BW) Macy Chiasson

Women’s Catchweight Bout

Irene Aldana: 13-6-0, 7 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Macy Chiasson: 9-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

This fight features two powerful strikers in an important matchup for the division. Aldana has won 3 of her last 5 bouts, and holds wins over #6 ranked Bantamweight Yana Kunitskaya (14-6-0), #2 ranked Bantamweight Ketlen Viera (13-2-0), and Lucie Pudilova (14-7-0). Aldana is about as pure of a boxer as you see in MMA these days, using practically just her hands and very rarely throwing kicks. Aldana is patient on the feet, never overextending or getting reckless, but puts power into each shot and doesn’t seem content to point fight. Her most dangerous weapon is her left hook, which she used to gain 2 first round knockouts in her last 3 wins. Aldana isn’t the most physically intimidating, making her power a bit deceptive, as it seems opponents don’t give her the respect she deserves, then wake up on the mat. Training at Lobo Gym MMA, she makes great use of footwork and head movement to avoid damage, while averaging over 5 significant strikes landed per minute. Chiasson has also won 3 of her last 5, and has victories over Norma Dumont (7-2-0), Shanna Young (9-5-0), and Pannie Kianzad (17-6-0). Chiasson is a lengthy fighter, using her reach to attack both the head and body, often landing big shots when at range. While she’s mostly known for her striking, She has really upped her grappling lately, landing at least 1 takedown in all of her last 4 fights and 6 in her most recent bout. When she does get the fight to the mat, Chiasson uses solid top control to land ground and pound, not usually pursuing submissions. Training at Fortis MMA, Chiasson was the winner of the 28th season of the Ultimate Fighter, winning via finish in both the semifinal and final rounds of the tournament. She has a decent arsenal of kicks to back up her hands, throwing a good variety of kicks to the head and body, especially front kicks. What Chiasson lacks in volume she makes up for in size and power, as well as a good clinch striking game that complements her recently grappling tendencies well. Aldana is the favorite in this fight at -175, with Chiasson the underdog at +150. I’m honestly surprised the odds are as close as they are, I think there’s a sizeable skill gap between these two, with Aldana seemingly being more put together. Aldana definitely has the striking advantage, and although Chiasson has been grappling in her recent fights, Aldana has great takedown defense so I don’t think that will matter much. I’ll take over 2.5 rounds and Aldana moneyline.

Picks: Aldana -175, Over 2.5 rounds

Daniel Rodriguez vs. #14 (WW) Li Jiangliang

Catchweight Bout

Daniel Rodriguez: 16-2-0, 8 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Li Jiangliang: 19-7-0, 10 KO/TKO 4 Sub.

A matchup of two exciting strikers, this should be an exciting fight. Rodriguez has found victory in four of his last five outings, with his best wins coming over Mike Perry (14-8-0), Tim Means (32-13-1), and Kevin Lee (19-7-0) (that’s where he fits into all of this). Rodriguez’ build is a bit deceptive for how he fights, using a Muay Thai style, although he does favor his hands over his kicks. Rodriguez is a great technical striker, fighting behind his jab and always pushing for a finish, but stays technical over 3 rounds. Training at Syndicate MMA, Rodriguez has great movement and footwork on the feet, attacking from different angles with a variety of strikes. “D-Rod” has some very fast kicks, usually throwing to the legs at the beginning and end combinations. He has also proven to possess serious toughness, exhibited in his incredible comeback against Dwight Grant (11-6-0) in one of my personal favorite one round fights of all time. He’s unlikely to initiate grappling, but has solid takedown defense and is usually able to get back to his feet where' he’s most comfortable. Li has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and holds victories over Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-6-0), Dhiego Lima (17-9-0), and Muslim Salikhov (18-3-0). Li is a solid striker with a background in Sanda (Chinese kickboxing), constantly moving and never keeping his head on the centerline. Li has been hard to hit in his UFC career, with a strike defense percentage of 58%, and only needs to land one shot to put an opponent away. While he doesn’t put out a ton of volume in terms of strikes, he makes up for it in accuracy and power, able to end the fight seemingly from anywhere at any time. Li is patient on the feet, often throwing out numerous leg kicks while looking for openings to land devastating power shots. Training at China Top Team, he averages about a takedown landed per fight and has a black belt in BJJ, so he is more than willing to grapple. He’s most dangerous when he’s able to cut off the cage and get into the pocket, throwing every punch with fight-ending intentions. Rodriguez is the favorite in this bout at -160, with Li the underdog at +135. I really have no clue how to predict this one, but I think Rodriguez’ forward pressure counters Li’s patience, so I’ll take Rodriguez by knockout as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Rodriguez by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Due to the reshuffling of the top 3 fights, these fighters both weighed in at different weights. Li weighed in at 170 pounds, with Rodriguez weighing in at 179.

Kevin Holland vs. #3 (WW) Khamzat Chimaev

A matchup I don’t think anyone could’ve predicted, I can’t wait to see this one. Holland has won 2 of his last 5 fights with one No Contest, and has wins over Joaquin Buckley (15-5-0), Jacare Souza (26-10-0), and Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0). Holland has surged in popularity since 2020, with fans loving his brash, loud-mouth style in which he will spend an entire fight talking to his opponent, regardless of whether he’s winning or losing. Holland is an aggressive striker, typically throwing combinations and always willing to engage on the feet. He does a great job of moving in and out of the pocket, although has no problem hanging in close to exchange on the inside. Training at Travis Lutter BJJ, Holland tends throw kicks when at range, using his kicks to set up his hands, often throwing kicks naked or at the start of combination. After fighting most of his UFC career at Middleweight, this marks his third venture into the Welterweight division, and has looked both bigger and stronger in the weight class. While he has struggled with his takedown defense in the past, he’s shown solid improvement as of late, and despite preferring striking actually has a slick submission game. Chimaev is undefeated, with his best wins coming over Gilbert Burns (20-5-0) and Gerald Meerschaert (35-15-0). Chimaev is one of the biggest hype trains in the sport right now, only absorbing a single strike in his UFC career prior to the Burns fight. Chimaev has one-punch knockout power, and proved he’s able and willing to eat a shot, making him dangerous at all times on the feet. Training at Allstars Training Center, Chimaev is a dominant wrestler, using devastating ground and pound and heavy top pressure to finish his opponent on the mat. “Borz” is lengthy for the division and uses it well, often landing power shots at range and using his striking to set up his wrestling attack. It’s impossible not to mention that Chimaev is the cause of all the chaos on this pay-per-view, missing weight by 7.5 pounds, leading to a complete restructuring of the card. Chimaev is the sizable favorite at -500, with Holland the underdog at +380. It’s hard to pick against Chimaev especially with a short notice opponent, so I’ll take Chimaev by KO/TKO as well as under 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Chimaev by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 rounds

Chimaev missed weight for his originally scheduled bout against Nate Diaz, weighing in at 178.5 pounds, 7.5 pounds over the welterweight limit. Holland weighed in at 179 pounds for his originally scheduled catchweight bout against Daniel Rodriguez.

Nate Diaz vs. #11 (LW) Tony Ferguson

Welterweight Bout

Nate Diaz: 21-13-0, 4 KO/TKO, 13 Sub.

Tony Ferguson: 26-7-0, 13 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

A matchup fans have been asking for for years, I cannot wait for this to finally take place. Diaz has won 2 of his last 5 bouts, and has wins over former UFC Featherweight/Lightweight champion Conor McGregor (22-6-0), former UFC Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (25-14-0), and Donald Cerrone (36-17-0). Diaz is well known as one of the toughest and most battle-tested competitors in the sport, proving time and again both his granite chin and excellent cardio. On the feet, Diaz uses a classic boxing style keeping his hands high and throwing in high volume. Diaz doesn’t have crazy power by any means, but more than makes up for it in sheer volume, averaging just above 95 significant strikes landed in his last 5 fights. Diaz is an excellent grappler with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and is extremely comfortable both on his back and on top. When on the ground, Diaz is much more likely to pursue a finish via submission as opposed to ground and pound. Ferguson has won just one of his last 5 fights, and has wins over former UFC Lightweight champions Rafael Dos Anjos (31-14-0) and Anthony Pettis (25-14-0), as well as #13 ranked featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0). Ferguson is one of the most beloved and respected fighters in the sport, going on a 12 fight win streak between 2013 and 2019. “El Cucuy” is well known for his unique style, moving awkwardly on the feet and doing odd things like throwing imaginary sand at his opponent. Ferguson has an excellent jab and solid boxing, and is always willing to engage on the feet, fighting with a “kill or be killed” mentality. He also has fantastic grappling, possessing solid wrestling and one of the best submission games in the sport. With all 8 of his career submission wins coming via some form of choke, the fight is practically over if Ferguson can get ahold of his opponents neck, especially if he locks in his patented D’arce choke. Surprisingly, Ferguson is the favorite here at -135, with Diaz the underdog at +115. I told myself I’d stop picking Tony to win, but after all the insanity of this card, I feel like I have to. I’ll take Ferguson moneyline and over 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Ferguson -135, Over 4.5 rounds

UFC 278

Prelims

Miranda Maverick vs. Shanna Young

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Miranda Maverick: 12-4-0, 1 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Shanna Young: 9-5-0, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

A rematch of great young contenders, their first meeting came in the Invicta FC Flyweight Tournament in 2019. Maverick would go on to win that bout via first round submission and comes into this fight with wins in 3 of her last five outings. Her most impressive victories came over Sabina Mazo (9-4-0), Gillian Robertson (10-7-0), and Liana Jojua (8-5-0), along with what is, in my opinion, one of the worst judged split decision losses of all time to Maycee Barber (11-2-0). Training with Team Elevation, Maverick has good power in her hands and is willing to exchange in the pocket, and has shown a solid chin, having never been finished in her career. She rarely throws single shots, typically throwing big combinations while mixing in an array of kicks. Maverick is constantly moving and does an excellent job of changing levels with her strikes, particularly with her kicks, throwing to the head, legs, and body evenly. She is an excellent grappler, willing to work hard against the cage to get takedowns, and transitions very quickly once she does get the fight to the mat. She’s more likely to pursue a submission than ground and pound but has the power to finish people if she chooses to do so. Young has found victory in 2 of her last five fights, with those wins coming over Gina Mazany (7-6-0) and Maiju Suotama (1-4-0). She has a black belt in karate and shows it in her striking style, with a wide stance and plenty of lead leg attacks and powerful straights. Young has powerful kicks, often adding them to the end of combinations or throwing them out in the open. Training at Knoxville Martial Arts Academy, Young is at her best when she’s controlling the middle of the octagon, using her lead leg and combinations to pick her opponents apart. She does also have a grappling background, having been an All-American wrestler in college, and will usually pursue ground and pound if she’s in top position. “The Shanimal” (yikes) doesn’t usually initiate grappling exchanges, but has the cardio and experience to grapple if she needs to, remaining calm even in tough spots. Maverick is the second biggest favorite on the card at -550, making Young a +400 underdog. I definitely side with the oddsmakers on this one, I expect Maverick to overwhelm Young and pick up a finish, similar to their first fight. I’ll take both under 2.5 rounds as well as Maverick by finish.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Maverick by Finish

Sean Woodson vs. Luis Saldana

Featherweight Bout

Sean Woodson: 9-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Luis Saldana: 16-7-0, 7 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

A matchup between two hot up-and-comers, I’d be surprised to see the judges involved in this one. Woodson has won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins coming over Terrance McKinney (13-4-0), Yousef Zalal (10-5-1), and Kyle Bochniak (11-7-0). Woodson is an experienced striker with an amateur boxing record of 46-3, and it shows in the octagon, using fluid boxing to piece his opponents up. Woodson is the tallest active featherweight in the UFC at 6’2, and he uses his length well, throwing long punches and kicks from range along with plenty of feints. He is willing to throw some wild shots, particularly flying knees, and has a good variety of kicks to back up his boxing. Woodson does a good job of switching up his strikes, often throwing devastating uppercuts to the body, even securing a finish with body shots in his last fight against Colin Anglin (8-5-0). Training at Glory MMA, Woodson is typically hard to take down, especially against the fence, using his size to keep the fight on the feet. When he is taken down, he does a good job of getting back to his feet quickly and returning to the center of the cage where he’s most comfortable. Saldana has also won 4 of his last 5 fights, with wins over Bruno Souza (10-3-0), Jordan Griffin (18-9-0), and Vince Murdock (12-6-0). Saldana similarly has a boxing background, but is a much more wild striker, throwing spinning attacks and devastating kicks. Saldana is a very fluid striker, with quick hands and kicks, usually coming out quickly, although he did show improved patience in his last performance. He has gassed out later in fights before, but with this enhanced patience, he may have overcome this. With finishes in 14 of his 16 wins, Saldana is always trying to put his opponent away, whether on the ground or on the feet. Training at Fight Ready, Saldana has great movement on the feet and is willing to grapple, possessing solid takedowns and good top control. He seems comfortable on the ground and on the feet, not afraid to engage anywhere, but prefers striking a bit more. Woodson is a decent favorite here at -340, with Saldana the underdog at +270. I am surprised at how wide these odds are, Woodson’s record may be a lot shinier but the skill gap doesn’t seem to be very wide. It’s hard to predict a winner here, but I will take under 2.5 rounds, both are aggressive strikers and I expect them to push the pace. I will cautiously take the favorite here with Woodson by KO, Saldana’s gas tank problems in the past could be the difference maker, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Saldana stole this one.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Woodson by KO/TKO

Leonardo Santos vs. Jared Gordon

Lightweight Bout

Leonardo Santos: 18-6-1, 3 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Jared Gordon: 18-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Santos has found victory in 3 of his last 5 fights, with his best wins coming over Kevin Lee (19-7-0), Stevie Ray (25-10-0), and Efrain Escudero (30-14-0). Santos found his way into the UFC by winning the second season of The Ultimate Fighter Brazil, and despite his relatively advanced age of 42, he doesn’t have a ton of fights or miles on him. Training at the legendary Novo Uniao, Santos has a great Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree, but is confident in his striking and seems to mostly use his BJJ as a fallback, averaging just 1 takedown landed per fight. “Nenhum”  uses long straights and powerful kicks to the legs and body on the feet, exhibiting good power in both his punches and kicks. Santos also has great takedown defense, defending about 84% of takedowns attempted on him, and when the fight hits the mat, he’s very comfortable on top and on his back. Also, contrary to his age, Santos has shown solid cardio and seems to go 3 rounds with relative ease, but will sometimes gas himself out chasing a finish. Gordon has also won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his best victories coming over Joe Solecki (12-3-0), Bill Algeo (16-6-0), and Chris Fishgold (18-4-1). Averaging about 2 takedowns landed per fight, Gordon has great wrestling both in open space and on the fence, but is willing to stand and exchange as well. On the feet, he’ll often get into the pocket and lower his head, throwing powerful hooks and uppercuts. At range, he gets out of the way of damage well and often throws damaging leg kicks. When it does go to the ground, Gordon prefers ground and pound to chasing a submission, applying heavy top control and landing devastating shots. Training at Sanford MMA, Gordon does a great job of pushing the pace the entire fight, often relentless in his search for a takedown or engaging in brawls inside the pocket. Gordon is the favorite here at -300, making Santos a +240 underdog. I don’t think the odds fully represent how close this fight could be, both are very well rounded and experienced, as well as hard to put away. I’ll take over 2.5 rounds, I do expect a fair bit of grappling in this one and wouldn’t be surprised to see a decision. While I think Santos has the ability to win this fight, I think the cardio advantage of Jared Gordon is what will make the difference here. Santos has gassed out in his last two losses, and with the pace Gordon pushes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen again.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Gordon -300

#11 Marcin Tybura vs. #13 Alexandr Romanov

Heavyweight Bout

Marcin Tybura: 22-7-0, 9 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Alexandr Romanov: 16-0-0, 6 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Tybura has wins in 4 of his last 5 fights, with his best victories coming over Walt Harris (13-10-0), Ben Rothwell (39-14-0), and Maxim Grishin (32-9-2). Tybura is a great wrestler who’s willing to strike, possessing classic heavyweight KO power and great takedowns. On the feet, Tybura will throw a decent variety of kicks at range, as well as powerful hooks in the pocket. Tybura is at his best on the feet when he’s moving forward and pressuring his opponent, but his easiest path to victory is through his grappling. Tybura has an excellent takedown game, often slamming his opponent down and advancing position quickly on the ground. Training at Ankos MMA, he will usually pursue ground and pound as opposed to a submission, using heavy top control to land big shots. “Tybur” has shown he has the cardio to go 3 rounds, whether he’s grappling or striking, and seems to be comfortable wherever the fight goes. Entering his 6th year in the UFC, Tybura has faced a who’s who of the heavyweight division and is very experienced. Romanov is undefeated, with his most impressive wins coming over Jared Vanderaa (12-9-0), Juan Espino (11-2-0), and Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-9-1). Romanov has an excellent background in freestyle wrestling, often pursuing slam takedowns and suplexes, ragdolling massive heavyweights with ease. When he doesn’t slam his opponent, Romanov works hard on the fence and in open space to get the fight to the mat. “King Kong” transitions quickly on the ground, always trying to advance position to obtain a finish. Training at Lion Club, he seems to prefer submissions over ground and pound, but he has big power and can land serious shots when on top. When pursuing a submission, he will typically go for a choke, with 7 of his 9 submission victories coming via some form of choke. On the feet, Romanov is quick for a heavyweight and not afraid to let his hands go, gladly engaging in huge exchanges in the pocket. Romanov has only gone to the third round 4 times in his career, with just a single decision in 16 fights, so he is always looking for the finish, whether on the feet or on the ground. Romanov is the favorite in this bout at -380, with Tybura the underdog at +300. Once again, picking rounds is much easier in this bout, and I’m pretty confident this one ends within the distance, so I’ll take under 2.5 rounds. I hate to pick exclusively favorites, but Romanov is a favorite for a reason. Both are heavy handed wrestlers, and I think Romanov is the better wrestler, so I expect to see him pick up another finish.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Romanov by Finish

Main Card

I will not be covering either the Pedro vs. Hunsucker fight or Wu vs. Pudilova. After looking into both of these fights, I quite frankly think they’re garbage matchups and not worth the effort of writing a full preview of. The combined UFC record of Wu and Pudilova is 3-9, and Tyson Pedro is being fed a can who is 0-2 in the UFC (0-3 if you include the Contender Series) while the UFC tries to build him back up. Just for the hell of it though, I’ll give you my picks: Pedro by KO/TKO, Pudilova by Dec.

#3 Jose Aldo vs. #6 Merab Dvalishvili

Bantamweight Bout

Jose Aldo: 31-7-0, 17 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Merab Dvalishvili: 14-4-0, 3 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

A fight between two of my favorite fighters, I’ve been looking forward to this matchup for awhile. Aldo comes into this fight with wins in 3 of his last 5 fights,  with those wins coming over #7 ranked UFC bantamweight Rob Font (19-6-0), #9 ranked UFC bantamweight Pedro Munhoz (19-7-0), and #5 ranked UFC bantamweight Chito Vera (20-7-1). Widely considered the featherweight GOAT, Aldo is a legend of the sport, holding 8 victories in championship fights and has been fighting the best in the world for over a decade. Considering how long he’s been around, Aldo is still just 35 years old, possessing as much power and speed as he had when he was a champion. Training at Novo Uniao, Aldo’s leg kicks, body shots, and devastating KO power is legendary, and his opponent is never safe at any point in the fight. Aldo also has some of the best anti-wrestling of all time, holding a takedown defense percentage of 90%, which is incredible considering he’s been in the UFC for 11 years. Now at bantamweight, Aldo looks just as sharp as he did at 145, and possibly even faster, and has a greater wealth of experience and knowledge than just about any fighter. Dvalishvili has won all of his last 5 fights, with his best wins coming over Marlon Moraes (23-10-1), Cody Stamann (20-5-1), and John Dodson (23-13-0). Dvalishvili has monstrous cardio, relentlessly pursuing takedowns and landing big flurries on the feet. He’s proved to be extremely hard to put away, shown in one of the craziest rounds of all time in his fight with Marlon Moraes (seriously, if you haven’t seen that fight, watch it). Training with the excellent Serra-Longo Fight Team, Dvalishvili’s constant wrestling threat helps to mask his striking, often coming forward with powerful hooks and big combinations. Fittingly nicknamed “The Machine,” Dvalishvili never seems to stop moving, whether he’s pressuring forward with his striking, pursuing a takedown, or landing devastating ground and pound. Dvalishvili is a slight favorite at -135, with Aldo the +115 underdog. Picking a winner in this fight is extremely challenging, not only as a fan of both fighters but from an unbiased standpoint as well. Dvalishvili could overwhelm Aldo with his wrestling, but I could also see Aldo being too much for Dvalishvili on the feet. I think the easier pick is going to be over 2.5 rounds, both are tough as nails and I’d be surprised to see either get finished. If I absolutely have to pick a winner, I’m going to cautiously take Aldo. I really have no justification, this is a great fight and I love both guys, I’m strictly going with my gut here.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Aldo +115

#6 Paulo Costa vs Luke Rockhold

Middleweight Bout

Paulo Costa: 13-2-0, 11 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Luke Rockhold: 16-5-0, 6 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

A matchup between two well respected middleweight contenders, I definitely expect fireworks. Costa has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his most impressive victories coming over Yoel Romero (14-6-0), Uriah Hall (18-11-0), and former UFC Welterweight champion Johny Hendricks (18-8-0). Costa is best known for his devastating power, steamrolling his way to a title shot with 4 straight knockouts followed by an all-time banger with Romero. After having some serious weight problems in his last bout, Costa looks even more shredded than before, seeming to have no issue with the weight cut. Although he practically never initiates grappling exchanges, “The Eraser” does have a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and is definitely competent on the ground. Training with the Pitbull Brothers, Costa is at his best when pressuring forward, throwing bombs and powerful kicks, especially to the body. Averaging almost 7 strikes landed per minute as well as about 7 strikes absorbed per minute, Costa is more than willing to eat a shot to land a shot. Rockhold has won 2 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over former UFC Middleweight champions Chris Weidman (15-6-0) and Michael Bisping (30-9-0), as well as former UFC Light Heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida (26-12-0). Rockhold is a former UFC and Strikeforce Middleweight champion and hasn’t gone to a decision since 2012, fighting with a “kill or be killed” mentality. Training at the excellent American Kickboxing Academy, Rockhold has some of the best wrestling and top control in the sport, able to submit people or put them out with ground and pound. Rockhold also has excellent kickboxing, possessing arguably the nicest question mark kick in the sport, and has knockout power in both his kicks and punches. Although he seems to want to stand up and strike in his recent fights, his easiest path to victory is his wrestling, as his chin has looked questionable in his late career. Costa is a sizeable favorite in this one at -400, making Rockhold a +310 underdog. Considering how sporadically Rockhold has fought (5 times in the last 7 years) and how he’s been put out so many times, it’s pretty hard to go against the oddsmakers. Costa easily has the power to put him away, and is looking in much better shape after his weight debacle in the Vettori fight, so I expect Costa to put Rockhold to sleep. I’m taking Costa by KO/TKO as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Costa by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

#2 Leon Edwards vs (C) Kamaru Usman

Welterweight Title Bout

Leon Edwards: 19-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Kamaru Usman: 20-1-0, 9 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

A title fight that’s actually a rematch, this is a fight fans have been waiting for for a long time. Edwards has not lost a fight since losing to Usman in 2015, with his best wins coming over former UFC Lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos (31-14-0), #10 ranked UFC Welterweight Vicente Luque (21-9-1), and Nate Diaz (21-13-0). Edwards is a very polished striker, holding the sixth fastest finish in UFC history with his 8 second KO in his second UFC fight, and is dangerous across all 25 minutes. Edwards has outstruck 8 of his last 10 opponents, and has averaged about 60 strikes landed in his last 5 fights (1 of which was a no contest ending in the first round, which really skewed the average), so he’s capable of putting out a decent volume of shots. In the time since his last loss, Edwards has truly become a complete MMA fighter, adding solid wrestling and grappling to his already excellent striking game. Training with Team Renegade, Edwards actually averages over 1 takedown landed per fight, so he is definitely willing to take it to the ground and is comfortable both on top and off his back. Usman is undefeated in the UFC, and has title defenses over #1 ranked UFC welterweight Colby Covington twice (17-3-0), #9 ranked UFC welterweight Jorge Masvidal twice (35-16-0), and #4 ranked UFC welterweight Gilbert Burns (20-5-0). There’s not much to be said about Usman that hasn’t already been said, the champion is quickly making his case for welterweight GOAT. Going into his 6th title defense, Usman is the longest reigning active champion, and has dominated everyone he’s faced. Coming into the UFC after winning the 21st season of The Ultimate Fighter, Usman started his career as a dominant wrestler, using takedowns and ground and pound to find victory. Usman has added some excellent boxing to complement his wrestling, possessing one of the best jabs in the business and some serious power in his hands. Training at the excellent ONX Sports, “The Nigerian Nightmare” is a serious problem anywhere the fight goes, able to find the finish both on the feet and on the ground with relative ease. Unsurprisingly, Usman is the favorite at -360, with Edwards the +280 underdog. It’s incredibly hard to pick against Usman at this point, even though I think Edwards has a better chance at victory than a lot of Usman’s recent opponents. I definitely think Edwards has the ability to win this fight, but I can’t say I really expect it. I’ll take Usman moneyline, as well as over 4.5 rounds.

Picks: Usman -360, Over 2.5 rounds

UFC 274 Preview

Prelims

#6 Brandon Royval vs. #9 Matt Schnell

Flyweight Bout

Brandon Royval: 13-6-0, 3 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

Matt Schnell: 15-5-0, 2 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

An exciting matchup of flyweight grapplers, this is a great fight to kick off the prelims. Royval comes into this fight having won 3 of his last 5, with wins over #11 ranked Tim Elliott (19-12-1), #8 ranked Rogerio Bontorin (16-4-0), and #2 ranked Kai Kara-France (24-9-0). In just 5 fights in the UFC, Royval has already faced a who’s who of the flyweight division and came into the UFC as the LFA flyweight champion. Training at FactoryX Muay Thai, “Raw Dawg” (top tier nickname) has consistently been in exciting fights, having one of the wildest striking exchanges I’ve ever seen with Kara-France. I covered Royval’s last bout against Bontorin (find the article here), where he showcased a definite willingness to strike, kickboxing at range and quickly darting in and out to land shots. He’s shown he’s comfortable just about anywhere, with an excellent submission game from his back as well as on top, as well as a solid enough chin to get into brawls. Royval is definitely more likely to pursue a submission as opposed to ground and pound, being particularly adept at chokes and joint locks. With a black belt in BJJ, he’s more than proficient in grappling, and his striking seems to improve with every fight. Royval does a great job of pushing the pace over all three rounds, never seeming too desperate to find a better position or land strikes. While his wrestling is a bit lackluster, he more than makes up for that with his skill from his back, making his opponents a bit more wary of taking him down. Schnell has won 3 of his last 5, with a loss that was overturned to a no contest. Schnell’s best wins came over Louis Smolka (17-8-0), Naoki Inue (16-3-0), and Tyson Nam (20-12-1). Like his opponent, Schnell is willing to engage the fight just about anywhere, using a technical boxing style on the feet and favoring wrestling in grappling exchanges. Like most flyweights, Schnell has fast hands but has decent power for the weight class as well, often setting up his grappling with his striking and vice versa. Schnell is excellent at capitalizing on his opponents' mistakes, and will regularly grab chokes when defending takedowns. Of his 8 career submission wins, 6 of them are chokes, all of which being either a guillotine or triangle. Training at Fortis MMA, Schnell has a black belt in karate, so despite largely boxing when on the feet, he definitely has a kicking game to back up his hands. Schnell seems to be at his most vulnerable in the first round, with 3 first-round KO losses in his UFC career, but also has a handful of first-round wins on his record, so he’s pretty unpredictable in the opening round. Royval is a decent favorite in this one at -260, with Schnell the underdog at +210. I’m not surprised by these odds; despite having a shorter tenure in the UFC, Royval has faced much tougher competition, as well as having better wins on his record. I think Royval has a slight edge in the grappling, but considering they both have dangerous submission games, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one play out on the feet. I’ll take Royval by finish and cautiously pick up under 2.5 rounds. Both men tend to push the pace, so I anticipate a finish, but both are pretty tough, so it’s a bit riskier than the Royval pick.

Picks: Royval by KO/TKO or Sub., Under 2.5 rounds

#11 (BW) Macy Chiasson vs. #15 (BW) Norma Dumont

Women’s Featherweight Bout

Macy Chiasson: 8-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Norma Dumont: 7-1-0, 0 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

A rare women’s featherweight fight, this is an exciting matchup of well-rounded fighters. Chiasson has won 3 of her last 5 bouts, with her best wins coming over Gina Mazany (7-6-0), Shanna Young (9-5-0), and Pannie Kianzad (17-6-0). Chiasson doesn’t have the fastest hands but more than makes up for that with volume, often blitzing forward throwing big combinations. Chiasson utilizes her length well, mixing in a good amount of body kicks with her punches, particularly front kicks. She also possesses solid clinch striking, landing elbows and knees to the body, as well as a decent ability to control her opponent in the clinch. Training at Fortis MMA, Chiasson was the winner of the 28th season of the Ultimate Fighter, winning via finish in both the semifinal and final rounds of the tournament. Chiasson favors the striking but has decent wrestling to back up her hands and can land considerable damage when on top. She’s landed at least one takedown in her last 3 fights, so she is willing to take the fight to the ground if she’s not winning the striking battle. Dumont comes into this with wins in 4 of her last 5 fights, with her 3 UFC victories coming over Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-5-0), Felicia Spencer (9-3-0), and Aspen Ladd (9-3-0). Dumont has had a solid output in her UFC career, averaging 75 significant strikes in her last 3 fights, and proved her cardio in a 5 round unanimous decision win over Aspen Ladd. Despite having no knockouts on her record, Dumont has sound, technical boxing as well as good power and speed in both her hands and kicks. Dumont seems to want to counterstrike a lot, often waiting for her opponent to put something out there before letting her hands go. Dumont averages just above 1 takedown a fight and has a brown belt in BJJ, so she’s capable of landing good ground and pound as well as grab submissions. Training at Syndicate MMA, Dumont has a slightly unusual background, with a black belt in Sanda, also known as Chinese kickboxing, with the word Sanda directly translating to “free fighting.” “The Immortal” (no, not Matt Brown) is very well-rounded, seemingly comfortable wherever the fight goes, and will usually mix it up pretty well between striking and grappling. Dumont is the favorite at -220, making Chiasson the underdog at +180. Dumont should definitely win this fight, as not only does she have better quality wins on her record, but she seems to be much faster and more technical on the feet and the ground. -220 is a bit high, but as much as I don’t like it I feel very risky expecting a finish as she hasn’t had a finish since 2017. I’ll take Dumont moneyline as well as over 2.5 rounds, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Dumont puts Chiasson away.

Picks: Dumont -220, Over 2.5 rounds

Francisco Trinaldo vs. Danny Roberts

Welterweight Bout

Francisco Trinaldo: 27-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Danny Roberts: 18-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

An excellent matchup of two tenured UFC fighters, this fight should be fireworks. Trinaldo has found victory in 4 of his last 5 outings and has spent a decade in the UFC, with his best wins being over John Makdessi (18-7-0), Bobby Green (29-13-1), and Paul Felder (17-6-0). Trinaldo has never lost consecutive fights in his entire UFC career and is still winning fights at the ripe age of 43. Trinaldo is obviously very experienced, so there are not a whole lot of situations you can put him in he hasn’t been in before, and he’s never been knocked out in his entire career. With a kickboxing record of 12-1, Trinaldo is a great striker with solid power in his hands and kicks, as well as a well-tested chin and great fight IQ, always knowing when to level change or clinch. I think one of Trinaldo’s best qualities is the ability to survive in deep waters, doing a great job to work out of bad spots, often surviving submission attempts or getting knocked down. Training with Constrictor Team, Trinaldo has gone 3 rounds plenty of times and still has good cardio in the 16th year of his extensive career. “Massaranduba” averages almost exactly 1 takedown per fight and has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, as well as smothering top control and devastating ground and pound. Roberts has won 3 out of his last 5 fights, with his most impressive wins being over Ramazan Emeev (20-5-0), Zelim Imadaev (8-3-0), and Nathan Coy (15-7-0). While not quite as experienced as his opponent, Roberts has been in the UFC since 2015, so he’s by no means a newcomer. With a background in boxing, Roberts has an aggressive, technical style on the feet, with definite knockout power in his hands and a decent arsenal of kicks. One of his best qualities is his movement, Roberts has good footwork and does an excellent job of circling and moving to stay out of the clinch and in the middle of the cage. Roberts does have some decent wrestling, landing a takedown in both of his last two wins, but seems to only pursue grappling when he’s struggling on the feet. With a takedown defense percentage of 56%, “Hot Chocolate” does a good job of keeping the fight where he’s most comfortable. Training at Sanford MMA, he has paid for his aggressive style in the past, with 3 KO losses in the UFC, often getting wild and finding himself in brawls. This fight is currently a pick em’, with both fighters sitting at -110. I think Trinaldo’s experience, as well as his grappling advantage, will make all the difference in this fight. Trinaldo faced a similar opponent in Jai Herbert (11-4-0), and despite struggling a bit early and suffering a knockdown, Trinaldo managed to secure a third-round TKO. I'm going to take Trinaldo moneyline here and under 2.5 rounds, I think Robert’s wildness will be his downfall and could lead to a finish for Trinaldo.

Picks: Trinaldo -110, Under 2.5 rounds

Randy Brown vs. Khaos Williams

Welterweight Bout

Randy Brown: 14-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Khaos Williams: 13-2-0, 7 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

An excellent bout between two powerful strikers, the judges shouldn’t be involved in this one. Brown has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with wins over Jared Gooden (20-7-0), Alex Oliveira (22-12-1), and Bryan Barberena (17-8-0). Brown is a tall welterweight at 6’3 and makes great use of it, throwing combinations at range, often putting body kicks at the end of his punches. Brown has a boxing background and it shows, he can throw 4 or 5 punch combinations without getting wild and with solid accuracy, but also has dangerous kicks. Despite only having two KO’s in his 6 year UFC tenure, Brown has proven he has knockout power on multiple occasions, and can also land serious damage in the clinch. Averaging just below a takedown a fight, Brown will mix in grappling with his slick striking, and does a great job of using his length in the clinch to control his opponent and take them to the mat. If the fight does go to the ground, Brown has a good submission game and some great chokes, with 4 of his 5 career submissions coming via some kind of choke. Training at Kings MMA, Brown’s willingness to exchange on the feet has hurt him before, having been knocked out twice in the UFC, and has also struggled defending leg kicks, and is at his best when he can use his length at range. Williams has similarly won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with wins over Miguel Baeza (10-3-0), Matthew Semelsberger (10-3-0), and Abdul Razak Alhassan (11-5-0). Williams, like his opponent, is a lengthy striker, but is much more boxing based, using the devastating power in his hands to get the job done. His first two UFC fights combined lasted less than a minute, so it’s safe to say he’s at his most dangerous in the first round. Williams loves to blitz forward throwing wild hooks, trying to put his opponent away fast as possible, and averages 5 significant strikes landed per minute. Training at Murcielago MMA, Williams is yet to attempt a takedown in his UFC career, very obviously favoring stand up exchanges. “The Ox Fighter” throws everything with knockout intentions, rarely throwing singular shots and usually moving forward when punching. He doesn’t have the most extensive kicking game, but will mix in the occasional body or leg kick when in open space. This is yet another pick em’ fight, putting Brown at -105 and Williams at -115. Under 2.5 rounds is by far the safest pick here, both guys have big power and like to push the pace, but picking a winner is considerably harder. Williams certainly has the power to put Brown away, but Brown is a much more well rounded fighter. If Brown mixes in some grappling I really think he should win this fight, so I’m going to take Brown moneyline.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Brown -105

Main Card

Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon

Lightweight Bout

Donald Cerrone: 36-16-0, 10 KO/TKO, 17 Sub.

Joe Lauzon: 28-16-0, 9 KO/TKO, 17 Sub.

This fight sees a matchup of two extremely experienced and tenured UFC fighters, and could possibly be both of their last fights, so I expect plenty of action. Cerrone has lost 4 of his last 5 fights with one no contest, but has wins over former UFC lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez (30-8-0), another former UFC lightweight champion in Benson Henderson (29-11-0), and current #12 featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0). One of the most respected fighters in the entire sport, Cerrone has been in the UFC since 2011 and has been a fan favorite his entire career. Cerrone currently is tied for the most UFC wins (23), has the second most UFC finishes (16), and the third most bouts in UFC history (37). With a background in Muay Thai, Cerrone has fast hands and powerful kicks, and is excellent at mixing kicks into combinations. Training at the BMF Ranch, “Cowboy” has a black belt in BJJ and an excellent submission game, dangerous from on top as well as on his back. He’s willing to engage the fight just about anywhere, and regardless of his recent skid is always up for a good scrap. Experience alone makes Cerrone a very dangerous fighter, but his well-roundedness is definitely his biggest asset, as there’s practically no position you’ll find him uncomfortable in. Lauzon has won 2 of his last 5 outings, and has wins over former Pride FC lightweight champion Takanori Gomi (36-15-0), inaugural UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver (27-19-1), and current #11 welterweight Michael Chiesa (18-6-0). Lauzon has spent 15 years in the UFC, and like his opponent is one of the most well liked and respected fighters on the roster. Lauzon was a contestant on season 5 of the Ultimate Fighter, famously entering the season fresh off a KO win over one of that seasons coaches, Jens Pulver. Although he’s coming off a 3 year lay off, Lauzon showed in his last fight against Jonathan Pearce (12-4-0) that he hasn’t lost any of his power, battering his opponent in the first round to find a KO victory. Training at Lauzon MMA (who would’ve thought), he uses a technical boxing style on the feet, not moving around too much and mostly using his hands. Lauzon is an excellent grappler, with six submission of the night honors to his name (the most in UFC history), and is excellent with both joint locks and chokes. Like his opponent, Lauzon is comfortable wherever the fight goes, both from his skill and his wealth of experience. Cerrone is a decent favorite here at -180, with Lauzon the underdog at +155. Once again the under is the safest pick here at under 2.5 rounds, both men have something to prove in this fight and I imagine they’ll be pushing the pace. Cerrone is a bit steep at -180, although Lauzon hasn’t fought in 3 years Cerrone has really hit a rough patch in his late career, but I can’t pick against him. I’ll admit my bias here, but I have to take Cowboy by finish in this one.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Cerrone by KO/TKO or Sub.

Mauricio Hua vs. Ovince Saint Preux

Light Heavyweight Bout

Mauricio Hua: 27-12-1, 21 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Ovince Saint Preux: 25-16-0, 13 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Yet another matchup of two well respected and long tenured fighters, this is a rematch of a 2014 bout that Saint Preux won via first round KO. Hua comes into this bout with wins in 2 of his last 5 fights with one draw, and has wins over former UFC light heavyweight champions Chuck Liddell (21-9-0), Lyoto Machida (26-11-0) and Forrest Griffin (19-7-0). Hua himself is both a former UFC light heavyweight champion as well as the Pride middleweight Grand Prix in 2005. Better known as “Shogun,” Hua has long been one of the most respected strikers in the sport, with a plethora of knockouts on his record and very well rounded striking. The best way to describe Shogun’s striking is he’s patient until he’s not, he’ll often plod forward slowly before throwing powerful combinations or devastating kicks. While not quite as wild as he was earlier in his career, Shogun will occasionally let it fly and mix in some flashy kicks, and still has good power in his hands. Training at Kings MMA, Hua won’t often initiate grappling sequences, but does possess a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and is excellent in the clinch. As I’ve said with other veterans on this card, there’s very few positions you can put him in that he hasn’t been in before, so Shogun is comfortable wherever the fight ends up although he definitely prefers to keep it on the feet. Saint Preux has also won just 2 of his last 5 fights, and has wins over current #11 light heavyweight Nikita Krylov (27-9-0), Yushin Okami (36-14-0), and rightful Bellator light heavyweight champion Corey Anderson (17-5-0). On the feet, Saint Preux has a very upright, slow style, throwing a lot of shots one at a time but with plenty of power behind them. Saint Preux has become well known for his use of the Von Flue choke, using it to find victory 3 times in the UFC. Averaging just over a takedown per fight, “OSP” is seemingly at his most dangerous on top, landing damaging ground and pound and pursuing submissions. Saint Preux is very patient, always looking for openings to land a knockout blow or a takedown, very rarely rushing forward or acting desperately, averaging just 2.65 significant strikes landed per minute. Training at Knoxville MMA, “OSP” does his best work on the feet when he takes the middle of the cage, patiently counterstriking or looking for a chance to clinch up. Saint Preux is a surprisingly large favorite in this one at -240, with Hua at +200. I imagine Shogun announcing this will be his second to last fight has some bearing on these odds, as Saint Preux has not looked great in his recent bouts, losing his last two fights by second round KO. Even more surprising to me, the over/under is 1.5 rounds, and I think the over could be a pretty easy pickup. I’m going to cautiously pick Shogun here, he may not be the same figher he was was but neither is Saint Preux, and I think Hua’s aggressiveness on the feet as well as grappling experience will make a big difference in this fight.

Picks: Over 1.5 rounds, Hua +200

#5 Michael Chandler vs. #7 Tony Ferguson

Lightweight Bout

Michael Chandler: 22-7-0, 10 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Tony Ferguson: 26-6-0, 12 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

This matchup features two of the most exciting fighters in the sport, and has big implications for the lightweight division. Ferguson has won 2 of his last 5 fights, and has wins over former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (24-12-0), current #6 lightweight Rafael Dos Anjos (31-13-0), and current #12 featherweight Edson Barboza (22-11-0). Ferguson entered the UFC when he won season 13 of the Ultimate Fighter, and after a singular loss in 2012, would embark on a 12 fight win streak spanning 6 years, culminating in an interim title win over Kevin Lee (19-7-0). “El Cucuy” is always engaging in wars, using creative striking and his nasty submission game to find victory. Ferguson is more than willing to walk through punches in order to enter the pocket, where he can land hard straight punches and devastating elbows. Ferguson uses his odd rhythm and movement to throw his opponents off, often fighting behind his jab and moving in and out to land shots. Training in his own gym, known as Snap Down City Academy, Ferguson has a solid wrestling background to back up his BJJ blackbelt, but doesn’t often pursue takedowns, averaging less than a takedown a fight. Ferguson does often find himself in grappling exchanges though, and averages over 1 submission attempt per fight, and is constantly looking for d’arce chokes. Chandler has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, and has wins over former UFC lightweight champions Benson Henderson (29-11-0) and Eddie Alvarez (30-8-0), and current Bellator lightweight champion Patricky Freire (24-10-0). Chandler is a former three time Bellator lightweight champion who entered the UFC in 2021 after a decade in Scott Coker’s promotion, so despite being a UFC newcomer, he’s by no means a rookie. Chandler is a very well rounded fighter, with good hands and excellent power for the division, but also a outstanding wrestling pedigree. Since entering the UFC Chandler has become a massive fan favorite, having outstanding fights with both of the men in the main event, Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira. Chandler uses a boxing style on the feet, largely relying on his hands to get the work done, but has some damaging power when he does throw kicks. On the ground, Chandler is a bit more likely to pursue ground and pound, but will grab a choke if the opportunity presents itself. Chandler is the biggest favorite on the main card at -360, making Ferguson a +280 underdog. There’s just too much value in Ferguson at +280 to ignore it, despite this recent 3 fight skid, I refuse to believe Tony Ferguson is washed. Maybe I’m just optimistic (and extremely biased), but I have to take Ferguson here, he has the grappling to match Chandler and he knows this could be his last fight in the promotion so he should come out like a bat out of hell. To make this even riskier, I’ll take under 1.5 rounds, I think this will be a war from the opening bell so I can’t imagine it goes all three rounds.

Picks: Ferguson +280, Under 1.5

#2 Carla Esparza vs (C)Rose Namajunas

Women’s Strawweight Title Bout

Carla Esparza: 19-6-0, 4 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Rose Namajunas: 12-4-0, 2 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

A championship rematch, this fight originally took place to crown the inaugural women’s strawweight champion following the 20th season of the Ultimate Fighter, which Esparza won by 3rd round submission. Esparza has won all of her last 5 fights, and has wins over current #3 strawweight Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2), #6 strawweight Yan Xiaonan (13-3-0), and #10 strawweight Michelle Waterson (18-9-0). Esparza is and has been one of the best wrestlers in the division, and it’s always her easiest path to victory. Averaging over 3 takedowns a fight, Esparza is effective everywhere, able to land takedowns in the clinch or in open space. Training at Team Oyama, when on the ground, Esparza has excellent top control and ground and pound, often controlling her opponents for entire fights. Esparza usually looks for takedowns early and avoids striking exchanges, but her constant pursuit of grappling exchanges does make her a bit more unpredictable on the feet as her opponents are always anticipating the takedown. Esparza doesn’t have crazy power in her hands, and is far more likely to put you away with volume as opposed to strength, but surprisingly only has two finishes in her UFC career. Namajunas has won 4 of her last 5 outings, and has wins over former UFC strawweight champions Jessica Andrade (23-9-0), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4-0), and Zhang Weili (21-3-0). Out of Namajunas’ last 6 fights, 5 of them have been for titles, so she’s definitely comfortable under the big lights. Namajunas is very well rounded, with a solid kickboxing game along with excellent BJJ. Training at 303 Training Center, she has solid cardio and a great chin for the division, Namajunas has proven her ability to go five rounds without dropping the pace, averaging just about 66 strikes a fight in her last 5 bouts, and has also shown she has finishing power with her round one finishes of Jedrzejczyk and Zhang. With a black belt in both karate and taekwondo, Namajunas has very educated feet, along with crisp boxing. Averaging just under 2 takedowns a fight, Namajunas is certainly willing to engage grappling exchanges, and has good top control to complement her excellent submission game. Namajunas is the favorite here at -220, putting Esparza as the +180 underdog. I will immediately admit my bias, Rose is my favorite female fighter, but regardless of that I definitely believe she wins this fight. Since their first meeting, Namajunas has faced better opponents than Esparza as well as picked up better wins, and I think her grappling is more than sufficient enough to counteract Esparza’s wrestling. I’ll gamble a bit here and not only take under 4.5, but also take Namajunas by KO. She should have a massive advantage on the feet and the wrestling to keep it standing, so I believe she’ll be able to put Esparza away.

Picks: Namajunas by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 rounds

This Friday, Charles Oliveira missed the championship weight of 155 pounds, and has been stripped of his lightweight title. He is unable to win or defend the title Saturday, but Justin Gaethje is still competing for the title, and will be crowned champion if he wins against Oliveira.

#1 Justin Gaethje vs. Charles Oliveira

Lightweight Title Bout

Justin Gaethje: 23-3-0, 19 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Charles Oliveira: 32-8-0, 9 KO/TKO, 20 Sub.

Despite some unfortunate circumstances around this fight, this is still an excellent matchup of two of the top fighters in the world. Gaethje has won 4 of his last 5, with wins over #5 lightweight Michael Chandler (22-7-0), #7 lightweight Tony Ferguson (26-6-0) for an interim title, and Donald Cerrone (36-16-0). Gaethje has never been in a boring fight in his entire career, relentlessly moving forward to throw bombs and do as much damage as possible. While Gaethje was known for throwing caution to the wind earlier in his UFC career, he showed in his win over Tony Ferguson that he’s fully capable of being technical, putting on a boxing masterclass before getting the TKO in the 5th round. To match his KO power, Gaethje has some of the hardest leg kicks in MMA, and is a weapon he’ll go to often to slow his opponents movement down, often opening them up to big shots. Despite having a collegiate wrestling background, Gaethje hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his UFC career, but does have an excellent takedown defense percentage of 73%. “The Highlight” is dangerous at all times, regardless of how gassed or how beaten, he will always come forward to try and put away his opponent. Training with Elevation Fight Team, Gaethje is at his best in the pocket throwing massive hooks, not quite brawling as much as he used to but still constantly getting into exchanges with his opponents. Oliveira has won all 5 of his last bouts (other than his fight with the scale), with wins over #2 lightweight Dustin Poirier (28-7-0), Michael Chandler (22-7-0), and Tony Ferguson (26-6-0). I covered Oliveira’s first title defense against Poirier in my first article (find it here), where he secured an impressive upset victory via 3rd round submission. Oliveira is the most prolific submission artist in UFC history, holding the UFC record for most submissions (15), as well as the records for most UFC finishes (18) and the most post fight bonuses (18). While best known for his grappling, Oliveira has significantly improved his striking game, and has shown some solid boxing as well as knockout power. While he’s definitely willing to engage on the feet, his easiest path to victory will always be on the ground, where he can pursue any number of the submissions he has in his arsenal. Training at Chute Boxe, Oliveira is a 3rd degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and is on his 12th year in the UFC, where despite a bad string of losses in his early career he’s managed to realize his title aspirations. Oliveira is a -135 favorite here, making Gaethje the +115 underdog. I imagine the betting lines got a lot closer after all the weight cut drama, but they should have been close to begin with. Gaethje definitely has the advantage on the feet and Oliveira definitely has the advantage on the ground, so it’s a question of who’s better at their own game. I believe Oliveira’s willingness to strike and tendency to get clipped, combined with what was clearly a bad weight cut, will lead to a Gaethje KO victory. Obviously, I have to pick under 4.5 rounds, I’d be utterly shocked if this fight saw a fifth round.

Picks: Gaethje by KO/TKO, Under 4.5 rounds

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green

We continue to roll on with this long stretch of cards, with another solid Fight Night. This week we see a very late replacement in the unranked Bobby Green stepping into face #4 ranked lightweight Islam Makhachev. Makhachev has been on an absolute tear, riding a 9 fight win streak where he’s never seen as much as a split decision. Bobby Green has finally been receiving the respect he deserves, winning his last two bouts decisively and got a lot of love from the Houston crowd after his 1st round KO of Al Iaquinta. This card has a ton of fantastic matchups, with both veterans and up-and-comers seeing action this Saturday. I cannot wait for this one, and it should be a fun card from start to finish.

Prelims

Terrance McKinney vs. Fares Ziam

Lightweight Bout

Terrance McKinney: 11-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Fares Ziam: 12-3-0, 5 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Ziam comes into this bout with 4 wins in his last 5, with his UFC victories coming over Luigi Vendramini (9-3-0) and Jamie Mullarkey (14-4-0). While Ziam has gone to decisions in all of his UFC fights, he rarely saw decisions for the majority of his career, only seeing a second round twice from 2014 to 2018. Ziam is a calm, patient kickboxer, constantly feinting and looking for openings to land powerful straight shots. Ziam is at his best when he takes the center of the octagon and fights at range, picking his opponent apart with a mix of kicks and punches. While kickboxing is certainly his best skill, he is capable on the ground with multiple submission wins in his career, all by choke. Training at Bulgarian Top Team, Ziam is a great defensive fighter as well, as in his UFC career he has defended 68% of takedowns and 65% of significant strikes attempted on him. Ziam is in no rush in the octagon, gladly fighting a slow fight from range and winning by any means necessary. McKinney has won 4 of his last 5 fights, tying the third fastest finish in UFC history in his promotional debut with a 7 second KO of Matt Frevola (9-3-1). Although the majority of his finishes are submissions, McKinney has won his last 4 fights via knockout all in the first round, with a combined fight time of a 1 minute and 52 seconds. He is obviously extremely dangerous early, loving to get into wild brawls throwing voluminous combos and plenty of head kicks. Training at Warrior Camp MMA, he has excellent top control and ground and pound as well, and has 4 wins by rear naked choke, so he’s seemingly comfortable whereever the fight ends up. The biggest challenge when it comes to analyzing McKinney is the shockingly low amount of time he’s spent in the cage in his recent fights, and doesn’t have a single decision win or loss on his record. That does make one thing outstandingly clear though; if McKinney is fighting, someone is probably going to sleep one way or another. Ziam is a slight favorite at -130, making McKinney the underdog at +110. With the hype behind McKinney following his debut, I’m surprised he didn’t get the edge here. These are two practically opposite fighters, one being a very composed, traditional kickboxer and one a very wild, well rounded fighter. I think if McKinney can come out and blitz Ziam he should win this fight, but Ziam does a great job of making it challenging to get into the pocket. I’ll definitely take the under 2.5 rounds, regardless of who wins McKinney is too wild for there not to be a finish, but I’m also going to take McKinney by finish as well. If he can disrupt the flow of Ziam and make it into a brawl, he should definitely take this fight.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, McKinney by KO/TKO or Sub.

Rong Zhu vs. Ignacio Bahamondes

Lightweight Bout

Rong Zhu: 18-4-0, 12 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

Ignacio Bahamondes: 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A bout between two young and dangerous strikers, this fight should be fireworks. Zhu has found victory in 4 of his last 5 bouts, with one UFC win over Brandon Jenkins (15-8-0). Zhu has some very snappy strikes, with quick and powerful hands, often headhunting and blasting his opponent with straight punches. He seems to be more comfortable counter striking, allowing his opponents to get aggressive while slipping back and landing damaging shots. Training with both Enbo Fight Club and American Top Team, Zhu has excellent experience for a 21 year old fighter, and is visibly comfortable in the cage. He rarely appears uncomfortable and has never been knocked out, although 3 of his 4 losses have come by submission. He’s willing to grapple but won’t often initiate the exchanges, but does have a couple choke wins on his record and is certainly capable on the ground. Zhu has excellent cardio and is able to push a quick pace on the feet, but would much rather be in a technical striking match than a brawl in the pocket. Zhu definitely prefers to keep the fight on the feet, as he does have a decent top game as well as a good ability to get up, but does seem to accept position on the bottom sometimes. Bahamondes has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with wins over Roosevelt Roberts (10-3-0) and Edson Gomez (5-2-0), both via spectacular knockout. In his Contender Series bout with Edson Gomez, he found victory with a front kick to the chin, and in his fight with Roberts he had one of the best knockouts of the year with a beautiful spinning back kick KO in the closing seconds of the fight. Bahamondes has excellent kickboxing, constantly switching stances and throwing quick combinations with his hands, often followed up by devastating kicks. While he has some flashy knockouts, Bahamondes does a great job of remaining composed whether he’s at range or in the pocket, willing to exchange strikes anywhere. In his fight with Roberts he showed solid takedown defense and was mostly able to keep the fight where he wants it, managing range well and landing shots in the clinch when taken to the cage. Training at Valle Flow Striking, he has shown he has both the cardio and the chin to back up his striking tendencies, allowing him to get into wars and throw with volume. Bahamondes is a decent favorite in this fight at -230, making Zhu the +190 underdog. While I do think these odds are a bit too wide, I think Zhu’s willingness to engage in a technical fight will be his downfall. Bahamondes is capable of fighting at range at a slow pace, but will often turn up the heat and throw out some wild attacks, and especially with Zhu’s tendency to counterstrike, I think Bahamondes will catch him and put him away. I’m going to take Bahamondes by KO/TKO, as well as under 2.5 rounds, but Bahamondes is the safer pick.

Picks: Bahamondes by KO/TKO, Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

Armen Petrosyan vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Middleweight Bout

Armen Petrosyan: 6-1-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Gregory Rodrigues: 11-3-0, 6 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

A fight between two excellent strikers, I’d be shocked if the judges get involved with this one. Petrosyan has wins in 4 of his last 5 bouts, with a win on Dana White’s Contender Series over Kaloyan Kolev (10-1-0). Petrosyan has great hands, able to throw with both speed and power as well as mix in kicks. If he’s able to find space, he’s extremely dangerous, shown in his Contender Series bout where after being clinched for a few minutes, he exploded off the fence and landed a huge combo to put his opponent away in the first round. He also demonstrated solid takedown defense in that fight, able to land some decent offense in the clinch even when his back was against the fence and got up quickly when taken down. Training at Academy MMA, Petrosyan does seem to often be defending grappling, biding his time in the clinch until he can get into space to work his combinations. “Superman” does have some powerful kicks as well, even winning a fight via body kick just a year ago. Considering Petrosyan went pro in 2018, his 7 fights is impressive, fighting 4 times in 2021 alone. Having spent most of his career on the Russian regional scene, Petrosyan is not new when it comes to facing high level opponents, despite this being his UFC debut. Rodrigues has won 4 of his last 5 fights, with his two UFC wins coming over Junyong Park (13-5-0) and Dusko Todorovic (11-2-0). “Robocop” not only has one of the best nicknames in MMA but also some absolutely devastating power in his hands, only seeing a single decision in his last 6 fights. Rodrigues fights with a very heavy handed kickboxing style, willing to engage both in the pocket and at range, as well as having some quick kicks for someone his size. Training at a great camp in Sanford MMA, Rodrigues has the power to put someone away even when gassed, shown in the absolute brawl he got into against Junyong Park. Rodrigues has great range management and movement, able to land and get back out to range unscathed. He has solid accuracy and volume to match his power, landing with 57% accuracy in UFC career. He can eat a punch as well, something he almost necessitates with his wild striking style, but 2 of his career losses have come by knockout, with the most recent coming in his Contender Series bout against Jordan Williams (9-6-0). Rodrigues is the favorite in this one at -160, with Petrosyan the underdog at +135. Although I don’t love taking under 1.5 rounds often, I certainly do in this fight, as unless Rodrigues wants to grapple I’d be shocked if this fight didn’t see a finish. It seems we’re yet to fully see the potential of Petrosyan, so it makes sense why Rodrigues is the favorite in this one. Petrosyan certainly could find the upset, but I think Rodrigues’ experience, accuracy as well as his grappling pedigree give him an edge in this one. I’ll take Rodrigues moneyline.

Picks: Under 1.5 rounds, Rodrigues -160

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez

Lightweight Bout

Arman Tsarukyan: 17-2-0, 6 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Joel Alvarez: 19-2-0, 3 KO/TKO, 16 Sub.

Yet another prospect fight, this is one I’d be shocked to see go to the judges. Tsarukyan comes into this fight with wins in 4 of his last 5 outings, with the best of those wins being two unanimous decision victories over Olivier Aubin-Mercier (13-5-0) and Davi Ramos (10-4-0), as well as a first round knockout of Christos Giagos (19-9-0). His only UFC loss is to a fighter in the main event this Saturday, Islam Makhachev, and based on the high level competition he’s been given, the UFC is clearly very high on this young fighter. He has crisp kickboxing on the feet, throwing plenty of combos ending with head kicks, doing a great job of moving in to land shots and back out to range. He will mix in some flashy spinning kicks and spinning backfists, staying calm and picking his opponent apart with quick shots and plenty of leg kicks. Training at Khabarovsk MMA as well as American Top Team, Tsarukyan has a solid wrestling background, willing to initiate grappling exchanges to land ground and pound as well as pursue submissions. All 5 of the submissions on his record were via choke, so he is certainly dangerous if he can get a hold of someone;s neck. Alvarez has also won 4 of his last 5 bouts, with his last three wins all coming in the first round over Joe Duffy (16-5-0), Alexander Yakovlev (24-10-0), and Thiago Moises (15-6-0). With 16 wins by submission, it’s clear Alvarez is an excellent grappler, but at 6’3 he’s a decently tall lightweight, often giving him a length advantage on the feet allowing him to work his kickboxing. Alvarez really showed off his power against Thiago Moises, landing some brutal elbows and kicks to put him away in the first round. If the fight does hit the mat, Alvarez is even more dangerous, particularly on his back. Despite having two submission victories in the UFC, “El Fenomeno” hasn’t even attempted a takedown in a UFC fight. Outside of a single armbar, all of his submission wins have been via choke of some variation, so the fight very well could be over if he gets hold of his opponent’s neck. While Alvarez’ record may not represent it, he’s a well rounded fighter who seems comfortable in just about any position. Tsarukyan is a surprisingly big favorite here at -220, making Alvarez a +180 underdog. Considering the 8 inch height advantage Alvarez holds, it will definitely test Tsarukyan’s kickboxing. While Tsarukyan certainly has the advantage in wrestling, Alvarez can wrap up chokes so fast I don’t think that’s safe for Tsarukyan either. This is a super tough fight to call, but I will take under 2.5 rounds as I certainly expect a finish. I’ll make the risky call and take Alvarez by submission, if he can make Tsaruykan uncomfortable on the feet and attempt a takedown I wouldn’t be surprised if Alvarez could snatch his neck.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Alvarez by Sub.

Ji Yeon Kim vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Women’s Flyweight Bout

Ji Yeon Kim: 9-4-2, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Priscila Cachoeira: 10-4-0, 6 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A fight between two solid strikers, this should play out on the feet. Kim has won 2 of her last 5 bouts, with her best wins coming over Nadia Kassem (5-2-0) and Justine Kish (7-5-0). Kim certainly proved her ability to get into firefights in her last bout with Molly McCann where she absorbed 130 strikes while landing 134. Training at Syndicate MMA, “Firefist” is yet to be knocked down in her UFC career despite constantly engaging in brawls. Kim tends to stay in the pocket, willing to eat shots in order to land her combinations, but has shown an excellent chin so far in her career. Kim tends to headhunt on the feet, rarely going to the body but throwing plenty of shots to the head, staying technical but not always accurate. Kim has never attempted a takedown in her UFC career, but does have decent clinch work and top control. Kim keeps a very high pace when striking, regularly throwing more than 200 strikes a fight. Cachoeira has also won 2 of her last five outings, with knockout wins over Shana Dobson (4-5-0) and Gina Mazany (7-5-0). Like her opponent, she has proven her chin multiple times, always moving forward and trying to land the knockout blow. Cachoeira is at her best when she’s moving forward, throwing power shots and combinations and fighting in the pocket. She has proven to be dangerous early, knocking out Shana Dobson in just 40 seconds in 2020. Cachoeira has shown decent takedown defense in her career defending 65% of those attempted on her, but has never attempted a takedown in her UFC tenure. She may have been sent to the top too early, coming into the UFC undefeated and was given the current women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko (22-3-0) in her debut, which is reflected in her UFC record. Cachoeira has very solid power for the 125 pound division, and is dangerous if she can let her hands go. Kim is the favorite in this one at -165, with Cachoeira the underdog at +140. I’ll definitely side with the oddsmakers here, I think Kim’s chin makes a huge difference in this fight and is a great matchup for Cachoeira considering her brawling tendencies, but I expect her to pick up the win here. I’ll also take over 2.5 rounds, I don’t anticipate a finish in this fight.

Picks: Kim -165, Over 2.5 rounds. 

Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman

Middleweight Bout

Misha Cirkunov: 15-7-0, 4 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

Wellington Turman: 17-5-0, 4 KO/TKO. 7 Sub.

A matchup of two excellent grapplers, I expect a finish in this one. Cirkunov has won 2 out of his last 5 fights, with first round submissions over Jimmy Crute (12-3-0) and Pat Cummins (10-7-0). Training at Xtreme Couture, Cirkunov has a very odd record, with 5 of his 7 career losses coming in the first round, with only a single loss by decision in his last bout against Krzysztof Jotko (23-5-0). In fact, 16 of his 22 career fights have ended in the first round, proving he’s by far at his most dangerous early on in the fight. Cirkunov does have decent striking, certainly possessing enough power to put an opponent away, but has been KO’d 4 times in his career, all of them coming in the last 4 years, so he definitely prefers grappling. Cirkunov is very dangerous on the ground, able to wrap up submissions very quickly, seemingly before his opponent even realizes what’s taking place. Cirkunov will typically pursue some kind of choke, with 5 of his 9 submission wins coming via choke. Cirkunov very rarely sees a decision, with 13 finishes in 15 fights, and is constantly pursuing the finish whether he’s on the feet or on the ground. Turman has similarly won 2 of his last 5, with decision victories over Sam Alvey (33-17-1) and Markus Perez (12-6-0). Turman is definitely at his best when he can gain top control and work both his ground and pound and submission game, with all of his submission victories coming via choke. Turman is a great wrestler, averaging just over 2 takedowns a fight and has never been taken down in his UFC career. In both of his UFC victories he landed takedowns, so it’s seemingly essential that he can take the fight to the mat. Often times he’ll use his clinch work to get the fight to the floor, not typically shooting for takedowns out in the open. He is willing to strike though, using technical boxing and the occasional headkick. Training at Teixeira MMA & Fitness, Turman does have decent power in his hands, although is yet to finish an opponent in the UFC. He will mix in a few wild strikes like flying knees and spinning backfists, but for the most part sticks to stiff hooks and uppercuts. Cirkunov is a slight favorite at -120, with Turman the underdog at +100. I like Cirkunov in this one, I think he’s faced much higher level opponents in his career than Turman, and has higher level grappling which seems to be Turman’s preference. I’ll take Cirkunov moneyline and under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Cirkunov -120, Under 2.5 rounds

#4 Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green

Lightweight Bout

Islam Makhachev: 21-1-0, 3 KO/TKO, 10 Sub.

Bobby Green: 29-12-1, 9 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

One of the wildest main events I’ve ever seen in terms of ranking, this should be an entertaining fight no matter what. Islam Makhachev has won all 5 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins coming over #8 ranked lightweight Dan Hooker (21-11-0), Thiago Moises (15-6-0), and Drew Dober (23-11-0). Makhachev, like his coach and training partner Khabib Nurmagomedov, is a dominant wrestler than could submit you or ground and pound you to find a finish. Makhachev has won all of his last 3 fights by submission though, with the most recent coming in the first round, showing a great improvement in urgency. Training at AKA, Makhachev definitely prefers grappling but is capable of striking as well, throwing with 58% accuracy on the feet as well as defending 70% of shots thrown at him. Makhachev averages over 3 takedowns a fight, and makes his wrestling background very apparent, using the now-famous Dagestani style of controlling and dominating his opponent against the cage. The absolute last place you want to be against Makhachev is on the bottom, as he will relentlessly pursue the finish from the top, and can easily control an opponent for five rounds if he can’t get them out of there. Green has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, and has wins over Al Iaquinta (14-7-1), Clay Guida (37-18-0) and Josh Thomson (22-9-0). Training at Pinnacle MMA, Green is an excellent boxer, picking his opponents apart with quick combinations and damaging straights. Green is a tested veteran, going pro in 2008 and has been in the UFC since 2013, amassing 18 fights in the promotion in that 9 year span. Green is very rarely in a boring fight, always willing to go to the center of the octagon and exchange blows. He has won Performance of the Night once and Fight of the Night 3 times in his career, backing up his scrappy tendencies. Green also has solid wrestling to supplement his striking, having defended 72% of takedowns attempted on him, and possesses good top control and a decent submission game. Green lands strikes at a 51% clip and has defended 62% of strikes thrown at him, making him a rather efficient striker, able to engage in the pocket and land big shots without taking damage in return. Green does a great job of mixing up his strikes, attacking to both the head and the body and throwing the occassional kick to finish a combination. Makhachev is by far the biggest favorite on the card at -900, with Green the underdog at +600. It’s pretty tough to pick against Makhachev here, but I don’t think this fight will be a total blowout. I will take under 2.5 rounds as well, Makhachev seems to be getting quicker and quicker with his finishes so if he’s going to win I’d expect it early. I think I along with the entire MMA community is pulling for Bobby Green here, and regardless of what happens he deserves tremendous respect for taking this fight on such short notice.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Makhachev by Submission

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland

After yet another break, we’re back with the second fight night of the year. With an important middleweight fight in the main event, we’ll see the streaking Sean Strickland against the experienced Jack Hermansson. A win in this fight could put either fighter into the title conversation at 185 pounds, with both men right on the cusp of it as it is. Outside the main event, this is an excellent card and in my opinion personifies what a Fight Night should be; nothing crazy in terms of star power, just quality fights and interesting matchups. This card should have non-stop action from start to finish, and I can’t wait to see how the fights play out.

Prelims

Chidi Njokuani vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Middleweight Bout

Chidi Njokuani: 20-7-0, 12 KO/TKO, 1 Sub.

Marc-Andre Barriault: 13-4-0, 9 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

A fight seemingly destined to play out on the feet, this is a good matchup of powerful strikers. Njokuani has won 3 of his last 5 fights, and has victories over Melvin Guillard (32-21-2), Max Griffin (18-8-0), and Andre Fialho (14-4-0). While this is his UFC debut, this is by no means his first fight in the big leagues, having fought in Bellator from 2015-2019, even headlining cards three times. Njokuani definitely prefers to keep the fight on the feet, using a patient muay thai style, throwing a variety of attacks with his lead leg. He constantly uses feints and is willing to wait for openings, rarely overextending on his shots and remains technical throughout the fight. Training at Janjira Muay Thai, Njokuani has excellent knees in the clinch, but has struggled when taken to the ground, with 3 losses by submission in his career. He is a veteran of the sport, starting his career in 2007, and has been fighting high level competition for a majority of his career. Njokuani found his way into the UFC after scoring an impressive 3rd round knockout over Brazilian prospect Mario Sousa (12-2-0) after rocking his opponent numerous times during the bout as well as showing an improvement in his offensive grappling. Barriault has won 2 of his last 5 fights with one draw, with his best win coming over Abu Azaitar (14-3-1). Barriault also tends to favor striking, but is much more of a brawler, often throwing big hooks and fighting in the pocket. “Power Bar” has solid power in both hands, and will also mix in leg kicks in his constant pursuit of a finish. When the fight hits the ground, he’s shown decent top control and throws equally as big shots as he does on the feet, proven by the complete lack of submissions on his record. Barriault has solid defensive wrestling, having a takedown defense percentage of 70%, but I don’t anticipate him using that much in this fight. Training at a great camp in Sanford MMA, he has shown solid cardio in recently, landing over 100 strikes in his last two UFC Fights. Although his cardio has looked good lately, he definitely isn’t a volume striker, often blitzing forward to throw power shots, especially with his right hand. While he can generate serious power with both hands, he does seem to be a bit obvious with his striking sometimes as he is constantly pursuing the knockout blow. Barriault is a slight favorite in this one at -120, putting Njokuani as the +100 underdog. I’m surprised Barriault is the favorite, Njokuani has considerably better experience at the highest levels of the sport, but Barriault does have a great camp which usually means a good gameplan. I’m still going to take Njokuani though, I think the technicality of his Muay Thai and his composure will be the difference here, as well his experience as a pro. Rounds are pretty tough to pick on this one, both guys are pretty tough but have found finishes recently, so I’ll take under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Njokuani +100, Under 2.5 Rounds

Hakeem Dawodu vs. Michael Trizano

Featherweight Bout

Hakeem Dawodu: 12-2-1, 7 KO/TKO, 0 Sub.

Michael Trizano: 10-1-0, 2 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Dawodu has found wins in 4 of his last 5 fights, with his most significant wins coming over Julio Arce (17-5-0) and Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1). Dawodu uses a very measured, kickboxing style, constantly moving in and out of range and using good head movement to avoid taking damage. He has solid power with both his hands and legs, and his attacks vary from spinning kicks to fundamental boxing. Although he can throw some crazy strikes, he does a good job of staying composed and patiently counter striking, often capitalizing on his opponents mistakes to land big shots to the head and body. He has struggled with takedown defense in the past, getting taken down 9 times in his last fight by top prospect Movsar Evloev (15-0-0). Despite this, he did last all three rounds, so he has been in deep waters and made it out, proving the quality of both his cardio and toughness. Training at Champion’s Creed MMA, Dawodu hasn’t even attempted a takedown in his UFC career, so it’s pretty obvious where he’s most comfortable. He’s at his best when he takes the middle of the octagon, forcing his opponent to the outside as well as on their backfoot where they’re more likely to make mistakes, and he can really damage them with his counter punching. Trizano comes into this fight having won 4 of his last 5, with notable wins over Ludovit Klein (17-4-0) and Luis Pena (9-3-0), as well as having won the 27th season of The Ultimate Fighter. On the feet, Trizano has a patient, boxing style, fighting behind his jab and finding opportunities to land powerful hooks or big combinations. Trizano does a good job of managing distance, coming into the pocket to land shots and quickly getting back out to range. Training at Team Tiger Schulman, Trizano does mix in some kicks with his boxing, throwing mostly to the body and legs. “The Lone Wolf” has also shown some solid cardio, keeping the same pace and carrying the same power over a full three rounds. Like his opponent, he has struggled a bit with takedown defense, having been taken down in all of his UFC fights, but outside of his loss to Grant Dawson (17-1-1) he went on to outstrike all his UFC opponents, so he is able to work out of bad ground situations. With two submissions on his record, he certainly has some BJJ ability, but definitely prefers to keep the fight the feet where he can put his boxing to work. Dawodu is the favorite at -170, with Trizano the underdog at +145. I feel pretty safe taking over 2.5 rounds, both guys have seen decisions in 4 of there last 5 outings, but taking a winner is a bit harder. They both are solid technical strikers, so it’s going to come down to who’s got the better technique. I think Dawodu’s counter punching will make the difference in this one, Trizano will want to be coming forward and throwing big shots and I think Dawodu has the head movement and footwork to counter that. I’ll take Dawodu moneyline.

Picks: Over 2.5 rounds, Dawodu -170

Miles Johns vs. John Castaneda

Bantamweight Bout

Miles Johns: 12-1-0, 4 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

John Castaneda: 18-5-0, 8 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

One of multiple striker vs striker matchups on the night, this is another fight that should be fireworks. Johns has won 4 of his last 5 outings, with his most notable victories coming over Adrian Yanez (15-3-0), Anderson Dos Santos (21-9-0), and Kevin Natividad (9-3-0). Johns has serious power in both hands, but does a good job of staying technical with his boxing and utilizes great footwork. Johns will mix up his strikes regularly, switching between attacks to the head and body as well as throwing powerful leg kicks. He tends to stay patient and use plenty of feints to find openings, then proceed to throw precise and powerful shots, usually in combinations. Johns has shown he can grapple, landing three takedowns in his Contender Series fight, but recently has been sticking to his striking, not attempting a takedown in his last three fights. He also has an outstanding takedown defense percentage, sitting at 92% in his UFC tenure. Training at Fortis MMA, Johns has shown that he can carry his power across three rounds, with his last two victories being third round knockouts. Castaneda has won 3 of his last 5 fights, with his best wins coming over Eddie Wineland (24-15-1) and Marcelo Rojo (16-8-0). Castaneda, like his opponent, is a patient power striker who loves throwing bombs and fighting in the pocket. Castaneda carries good power in his hands and will also mix in a decent variety of kicks to the legs, head, and body, but would definitely rather fight in a phone booth than at range. Training at The Academy (that’s actually what it’s called), “Sexy Mexi” is capable of grappling if the fight hits the mat, and will grab a choke if given the chance, evident in the 5 submission wins on his record. He has shown an ability to eat a shot as well as weather a storm, shown in his decision loss to Nathaniel Wood (17-5-0). Johns is the favorite in this fight at -190, making Castaneda the +160 underdog. I will admit my bias as a fan of Miles Johns, but I think he’s the favorite for a reason in this fight. His striking is a lot more technical than Castaneda, has more UFC experience, and I think he has the edge in power. I’m going to take Miles Johns moneyline, as well as under 2.5 rounds.

Picks: Johns -190, Under 2.5 rounds

Main Card

I didn’t cover the Tresean Gore vs. Bryan Battle fight, as for whatever reason the 12th episode of The Ultimate Fighter (which is the semifinals of the show) isn’t on ESPN+ or UFC Fight Pass, so I could only find a single fight of Tresean Gore’s. I can’t really properly research a fighter if I can’t see their fights, and considering he has only 3 pro fights in his career, using just statistics for reference doesn’t paint a very clear picture of how he fights.

Julian Erosa vs. Steven Peterson

Featherweight Bout

Julian Erosa: 26-10-0, 11 KO/TKO, 12 Sub

Steven Peterson: 19-9-0, 5 KO/TKO, 8 Sub.

A bout between two well rounded and experienced fighters, there should be plenty of action in this one. Erosa has won 4 of his last five fights, with impressive wins over Charles Jourdain (12-4-1), Nate Landwehr (15-4-0), and Sean Woodson (9-1-0). Erosa is a finisher in every way, only going to decision once in 9 UFC fights. One of multiple TUF alums on this card, Erosa is extremely well rounded, able to knock you out on the feet or tap you on the mat. “Juicy J” has a very upright boxing style, and is much more of a volume striker than a power striker. He keeps it very loose on the feet, often putting his hands down and using head movement to avoid damage then responding with stiff, almost Wanderlei Silva type hooks. He has a very dangerous submission game, and doesn’t even need to take the fight to the floor to find submissions, beating Charles Jourdain with a standing d’arce choke in his last victory. Erosa is one of those fighters where you anticipate something crazy, whether grappling or striking, using unorthodox chokes and throwing spinning backfists and flying knees. Erosa does have the cardio to go three rounds and is dangerous at any point in the fight, having multiple first and third round finishes on his record. Steven Peterson has won 3 of his last 5 bouts, with his best wins being over Chase Hooper (10-2-1), and Martin Bravo (12-3-0), with the latter victory being via one of the best finishes I’ve ever seen live, where he countered a spinning backfist with a spinning backfist and put his opponent out cold. While Peterson’s base is grappling, holding a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but also has some solid Muay Thai when on the feet. When striking, Peterson mixes it up well, throwing kicks to the legs and body and powerful combinations with his hands. Peterson is more than willing to get into dog fights, and will stand in the middle and exchange strikes as well as get into grueling grappling exchanges on the fence and on the ground. Training at Fortis MMA, “Ocho” doesn’t really seem to prefer grappling or striking over the other, willing to go wherever the fight ends up and seems comfortable in practically any position, most likely due to the wealth of experience he has in his 28 fight career. Erosa is one of the biggest favorites on the card at -310, with Peterson a +250 underdog. While I think these odds are a bit inflated, Erosa is a favorite for a reason. I think he’s just a little bit better at everything than Peterson, but I think this fight will be closer than many think, as Peterson is a very experienced and pretty tough too. Still, I’m going to take under 2.5 rounds, and Erosa by finish.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Erosa by KO/TKO or Sub.

Sam Alvey vs. Brendan Allen

Middleweight Bout

Sam Alvey: 33-16-1, 19 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

Brendan Allen: 17-5-0, 5 KO/TKO, 9 Sub.

An interesting matchup of a longtime veteran and a prospect on the rise, I expect a very entertaining bout. Sam Alvey has not found a victory since 2018, but lost 2 of his last five by split decision and fought to a draw. His best victories are over former UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans (20-8-1), Nate Marquardt (35-19-2), and Cezar Ferreira (14-10-0). Alvey is a classic brawler, always willing to stand and bang and leave everything he has in the cage. Alvey kind of reminds me of Forrest Griffin; he might not be the best athlete or the most technical, but he’s got more heart than just about anybody. Training at Team Quest Portland, he has a great chin, and with so many fights on his record there’s very few situations he’s uncomfortable in. He very rarely will initiate grappling exchanges but does have solid defensive wrestling, with an outstanding takedown defense percentage of 81% in the UFC. He’s gone three rounds countless times in his career, and keeps his speed and power throughout a fight, often moving forward to throw wild combinations. With 19 career knockouts, Alvey is fully capable of putting an opponent away, even if he hasn’t done it recently. He does a great job of finding openings to land damaging strikes, doing nearly all of his work with his hands. Allen has won 3 of his last five bouts, with wins over Punahele Soriano (8-1-0), Karl Roberson (9-4-0), and Kyle Daukaus (10-2-0). Allen is primarily a grappler, and is extremely dangerous when he does get the fight to the mat, with quite a few rear naked choke wins on his record and even an ankle lock. He won’t strictly pursue the submission though, using quality top control to land ground and pound and advance to better positions. Training at Sanford MMA, Allen is dangerous whether he’s on top or on his back, and is always searching for submissions regardless of what position he’s in. Allen does have good striking to back up his grappling, and has both good hands and kicks, using more of a boxing style when he is on the feet. “All In” doesn’t see the judges too often, but can go three rounds, and like his opponent is willing to leave everything he has inside of the octagon every time he fights. Allen is tied for the biggest favorite on this card at -420, with Alvey a huge +330 underdog. I absolutely love Sam Alvey, but it’s tough to pick him to win this one. I certainly think it’ll be more competitive than people think it will be, but if Allen can take it to the mat he should be able to find a submission. I’m going to take under 2.5 rounds as well as Allen by submission.

Picks: Under 2.5 rounds, Allen by Sub.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Carlton Harris

Welterweight Bout

Shavkat Rakhmonov: 14-0-0, 7 KO/TKO, 7 Sub.

Carlston Harris: 17-4-0, 5 KO/TKO, 5 Sub.

Yet another matchup of up-and-coming fighters in the UFC, both of these men have been finishers in their UFC tenure and I don’t expect to see the judges in this bout. Rakhmonov is currently undefeated, with two UFC wins, both by submission over Alex Oliveira (22-11-1) and Michel Prazeres (26-4-0) in Prazeres’ first loss via finish in his career. Rakhmonov on the feet is an efficient, technical striker using a boxing style, often mixing in body kicks and the occasional spinning kick. He does have knockout power, but Rakhmonov seems to be at his best on the ground, using quality wrestling and clinchwork to bring his opponents to the mat. Training at Kazakhstan Top Team, Rakhmonov has excellent top control, staying patient and active on top until he can work to a submission position. “Nomad” does a good job of setting up his grappling with his striking, often dropping his opponent then finding a submission. He’s dangerous anywhere the fight goes, but is at his best when he can clinch his opponent against the cage, find the takedown and work his grappling game from there. Harris has won all of his last 5 fights, all by finish, with his most notable wins coming over Michel Pereira (27-11-0), Wellington Turman (17-5-0), and Christian Aguilera (14-8-0). Harris has some serious power in his hands, utilizing an efficient kickboxing style, with devastating kicks to match his hands. To go along with his power, he’s got some excellent speed, both in his movement and punches, and is always looking for the finish. He has one shot knockout power on the feet, but also has some slick grappling, with some nasty chokes on his record and great takedown defense. Training at Renovocao Fight Team, Harris seems to really love the anaconda and d’arce chokes, often sprawling on a takedown and then wrapping one of these up. Like his opponent, he seems comfortable just about wherever the fight goes, but seems to get a lot of his submissions via defensive grappling, not often shooting for takedowns. Rakhmonov is the favorite at -230, with Harris the underdog at +130. I think it might just be my riskiest pick, but I like Harris by finish in this one. I think he’s better on the feet, and his tendency to find chokes from defensive positions could really be difference maker. Rakhmonov is absolutely nasty, but I really think Harris could steal this one. The rounds are a bit tougher to call, but considering neither man has seen a third round in their last 5 fights, I’ll take under 1.5 rounds.

Picks: Harris by KO/TKO or Sub., Under 1.5 rounds

Punahele Soriano vs. Nick Maximov

Middleweight Bout

Punahele Soriano: 8-1-0, 5 KO/TKO, 2 Sub.

Nick Maximov: 7-0-0, 2 KO/TKO, 3 Sub.

A matchup of two well rounded up-and-comers, this is bound to be a great fight. Soriano has won 4 of his last 5 fights, scoring victories over Dusko Todorovic (11-2-0), Oskar Piechota (11-3-1), and Jamie Pickett (13-6-0). Soriano has absolutely devastating power in his hands, which he’s proven with two 1st round knockouts in his 3 UFC bouts. On the feet, Soriano is at his most dangerous in the pocket, throwing massive hooks and really letting his hands go. He will occasionally mix in kicks when he does leave the pocket, mostly going to the head or body. Soriano is constantly moving forward and pressuring his opponent, keeping them moving backwards while he throws bombs. Training at the excellent Xtreme Couture, Soriano loves to headhunt on the feet, but has also shown some solid wrestling to complement his striking. In his Contender Series fight with Jamie Pickett he landed three takedowns, and did show an ability to grapple, but didn’t land much offense when on top. Maximov is currently undefeated, winning a unanimous decision in his UFC debut against Cody Brundage (6-2-0). Training at the Nick Diaz Academy, he fights exactly like how you would expect someone trained by Nick Diaz would; good boxing, great BJJ. On the feet he has solid, technical boxing, and has decent power in his hands. Maximov is certainly willing to engage on the feet, but seems most comfortable on the ground, landing 4 takedowns and holding nearly 10 minutes of control time in his fight with Cody Brundage. He’ll pursue submissions as well as land ground and pound, and does a great job of controlling his opponent and really sticking to them. He has good wrestling to complement his jiu-jitsu, able to land takedowns in the open and the clinch, as well of doing a good job defending takedowns. Maximov will regularly pursue the finish on the ground whether it’s via strikes or submissions, often setting up one with the other. He also exhibited quality cardio in his one UFC fight, being able to control his opponent and stay active for the majority of it. Soriano is a decent favorite at -190, with Maximov the underdog at +160. I’m honestly a little surprised Soriano is such a big favorite, he does have serious power but could find himself in some serious trouble if taken down. At the same time, we haven’t seen Maximov get taken into deep waters, having dominated and controlled both of his opponents in his Contender Series fight and UFC debut. This is a super tough fight to pick a winner in, but I do think this fight goes over 1.5 rounds. This is a classic dilemma of one guy being the better grappler but the other the better striker. I don’t feel super confident picking either guy, but if I had to pick a winner, I’ll cautiously take Soriano.

Picks: Over 1.5 rounds, Soriano -190

#6 Jack Hermansson vs. #7 Sean Strickland

Middleweight Bout

Jack Hermansson: 22-6-0, 11 KO/TKO, 6 Sub.

Sean Strickland: 24-3-0, 10 KO/TKO, 4 Sub.

This is an excellent matchup in terms of styles, and a very important fight for two guys who have seemingly been on the cusp of the top 5 for a lot of their UFC tenure. Jack Hermansson has won 3 of his last 5, those being victories over Edmen Shahbazyan (11-3-0), #10 ranked middleweight Kelvin Gastellum (17-8-0), and Jacare Souza (26-10-0). Training at Frontline Academy, Hermansson is a well rounded fighter, willing to engage exchanges both on the feet and on the ground. While he does have solid striking, it seems Hermansson prefers to take the fight to the mat, averaging about two takedowns a fight. When on the ground, he’s a bit more likely to pursue ground and pound as opposed to the submission, but will grab a choke when given the chance. When striking, Hermansson uses a boxing style, often throwing a lot of leg and body kicks before letting his hands go. Hermansson is at his most dangerous early in a fight, having 5 first round finishes in the UFC, 2 being knockouts with 3 submissions. “The Joker” has shown some decent power in his hands and can certainly put someone away, but really seems his most comfortable in grappling situations, landing at least one takedown in all but one of his last 8 fights. Sean Strickland has won all of his last 5 fights, with impressive wins over #9 ranked middleweight Uriah Hall (18-10-0), Krzysztof Jotko (23-5-0), and Brendan Allen (17-5-0). Strickland has become well known for his striking, as well for his tendency to talk trash throughout fights. Being on a 5 fight win streak, his trash talk usually serves to frustrate his opponents while they’re losing to Strickland. While “Tarzan” definitely prefers to keep the fight standing, he will often mix some grappling in with his striking, averaging just over 1 takedown per fight. He also has shown pretty solid takedown defense in his career, defending 82% of takedowns attempted on him, and is something that could play a big role in this fight. Strickland rarely pursues the submission, much preferring to get the work done with his powerful hands. On the feet, Strickland uses a very upright boxing style, constantly moving forward and throwing combinations. While he certainly pursues the knockout, he doesn’t overextend himself in doing this, usually remaining technical and composed even in fire fights. Training at Millenia MMA, Strickland seems almost Terminator-like with his constant forward movement, trying to keep his opponent on the backfoot as much as possible to open up opportunities to land combinations, especially his one-two. Strickland is the favorite in this one at -220, making Hermansson the +180 underdog. I think what decides this fight is Strickland’s defensive wrestling as he hasn’t been taken down since 2017, with the last person to take him down being UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. If Strickland can keep it on the feet, I think he has better striking than Hermansson and should be able to get the job done. I’m taking Strickland by knockout, and under 4.5 rounds, with the rounds definitely being the safer pick.

Picks: Under 4.5 rounds, Strickland by KO/TKO